Improving decision-making by reducing ignorance

Transcription

1 Intelligence Applications & Intelligence Led Decision Making for Security Professionals 13th European Security Conference The Hague, 2 nd April 2014 Erik de Vries, CPP & Dick Oey, MSc, CPP Intelligence. Improving decision-making by reducing ignorance ASIS EU Intellgence Led Decision Making 1

2 Before making a strategic decision 1. Do you know all you need to know? 2. what you don t know? 3. where to find what you need to know? 4. what to do with the info once you find it? ASIS EU Introduction Erik de Vries, CPP ASIS EU Intellgence Led Decision Making 2

3 Introduction Dick Oey, MSc CPP CCIA ASIS EU Preferred outcome ASIS EU Intellgence Led Decision Making 3

4 ASIS EU Agenda Introduction Threats Security Domains Triple A Knowledge Cycle Practical cases Better and worse cases Q & A Discussion ASIS EU Intellgence Led Decision Making 4

5 Do you know all you kneed to know? 20 th Century vs. 21 st Century Tangible, linear, comprehensible Analog, singular, deterministic Mechanistic, logical, simple Not easy Manageable CHANCE X EFFECT Known knowns & Known unknowns What don t you know? 20 th Century vs. 21 st Century Networked, Adaptive, Creative, Positive Pro-Active, Holistic, Engaged, Social Sustainable, Responsible, Constructive Multi-Dimensional Digital, Viral Unknown knowns & Unkwown unknowns ASIS EU Intellgence Led Decision Making 5

6 If you can see the invisible, you can do the impossible ASIS EU Intellgence Led Decision Making 6

7 The last Kodak moment.. Revenues $ 16 billion (1996) employees Bankruptcy 2012 Inventor of the digital camera in 1976 ASIS EU Kodak moment = Security moment? Kodak was the Google of its day; pioneering technology and innovative marketing You press the button, we do the rest 90% of film and 85% of camera sales in US Decision: No shift from film tot consumer electronics Not willing to trade 90% (film) market share for 10% in consumer electronics ASIS EU Intellgence Led Decision Making 7

8 Kodak moment = Security moment? Now what if... you want to hold on to your market share: Selling security guards hours Selling physical security measures Etc. Instead of entering into new innovative security solutions ASIS EU Threats Human gate ASIS EU Intellgence Led Decision Making 8

9 Security (management) domains People Security ICT Security Security Management Physical Security Information Security ASIS EU ASIS EU Intellgence Led Decision Making 9

10 Where to find what you need to know? You cannot escape the responsibility of tomorrow by evading it today. Abraham Lincoln ASIS EU Informed decision-making Lessons Learned From History: The Military Process Out- OODA Looping the history of planning success Doctrine IPB MDMP Operation ASIS EU Intellgence Led Decision Making 10

11 System of Systems Analysis From: Guillaume Nicaise ASIS EU st Century Business Continuity Survival in the information age requires A knowledge driven corporate decision model Knowledge management & foreknowledge Flexible & agile organization ASIS EU Intellgence Led Decision Making 11

12 Implementation: Triple A Security Intelligence Protective Intelligence Red teaming ASIS EU Actions Steps Examples Practical ASIS EU Intellgence Led Decision Making 12

13 Practical cases Crisis management exercise Euro Arabic spring WTC Next level of Foreknowledge: Tactical: Operational: Strategic: Predictive Profiling Crime Analysis Red Teaming ASIS EU Remember? 1. Do you know all you need to know? 2. what you don t know? 3. where to find what you need to know? 4. what to do with the info once you find it? ASIS EU Intellgence Led Decision Making 13

14 Top 4 actions list 1. Build a network Platform information exchange 2. Switch from Reactive to Proactive Analytical Hiërarchy 3. Demand Professional Quality Certification & Education Standards 4. Use Informed Corporate Decisionaking Aquire Foreknowledge ASIS EU Platform Information Exchange Security Intelligence Protective Intelligence Red teaming ASIS EU Intellgence Led Decision Making 14

15 Top 4 actions list 1. Build a network Platform information exchange 2. Switch from Reactive to Proactive Analytical Hiërarchy 3. Demand Professional Quality Certification & Education Standards 4. Use Informed Corporate Decisionaking Aquire Foreknowledge ASIS EU Analytical Hiërarchy Model Analytical Hierarchy Behaviour & Movements Indicator Proactive Behaviour Prediction Events / Incidents Detectability Intellgence Led Decision Making 15

16 Top 4 actions list 1. Build a network Platform information exchange 2. Switch from Reactive to Proactive Analytical Hiërarchy 3. Demand Professional Quality Certification & Education Standards 4. Use Informed Corporate Decisionaking Aquire Foreknowledge ASIS EU Certification & Education Standards Protective Intelligence / Triple A Certified Security Intelligence Professional (CSIP ) Certified Crime & Intelligence Analyst Certified Protection Professional ASIS EU Intellgence Led Decision Making 16

17 Top 4 actions list 1. Build a network Platform information exchange 2. Switch from Reactive to Proactive Analytical Hiërarchy 3. Demand Professional Quality Certification & Education Standards 4. Use Informed Corporate Decisionaking Aquire Foreknowledge ASIS EU Acquire Foreknowledge Competitor Model Knowledge Management Informed Decision Enlightened Action ASIS EU Intellgence Led Decision Making 17

18 Intelligence. Improving decision-making by reducing ignorance Reducing security is an option but only if it s a conscious decision! ASIS EU Security innovation needs: a shift from repression to prevention & Thinking out of the Box ASIS EU Intellgence Led Decision Making 18

19 Thank view?id= Erik de Vries CPP Director/Owner DutchRisk bv Chairman ASIS Benelux [email protected] HDGT Oey, MSc, CPP, CCIA Principal Consultant - Director Enigma Solutions ASIS EU ASIS EU Intellgence Led Decision Making 19