FACTORS AFFECTING INVESTMENT DECISION AND PERFORMANCE IN HO CHI MINH STOCK EXCHANGE MARKET

Transcription

1 VIETNAM NATIONAL UNIVERSITY HO CHI MINH CITY INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY SCHOOL OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION FACTORS AFFECTING INVESTMENT DECISION AND PERFORMANCE IN HO CHI MINH STOCK EXCHANGE MARKET In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirement of the Degree of BACHELOR OF ART in FINANCE &BANKING Student s name: TRAN DUY KHIEM (BAFNIU10298) Advisor: NGUYEN VAN PHUONG, PhD Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam 2014

2 FACTORS AFFECTING INVESTMENT DECISION AND PERFORMANCE IN HO CHI MINH STOCK EXCHANGE MARKET APPROVED BY: Advisor APPROVED BY: Committee Nguyen Van Phuong PhD THESIS COMMITTE ii

3 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I want to thank my advisor PhD Nguyen Van Phuong that he was with me all the time of doing thesis He always has the way to make his students get improvements in both knowledge as well as skills dealing with problems Moreover, without his helps, I cannot finish this study because of my lack of knowledge, lack of respondents in questionnaires, and lack of advices After this time, I will have confidence in myself about moving into next step of my life Moreover, I want to thank my family, my friends for encouraging me during hard time for giving comments, motivations for me to keep up the process iii

4 TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES vii LIST OF FIGURES ix ABSTRACT x CHAPTER I: INTRODUCTION 1 I INTRODUCTION Error! Bookmark not defined II PUROSE OF THE STUDY 4 III SCOPE OF THE STUDY 4 IV DELIMITATIONS OF THE RESEARCH 4 V STRUCTURE OF THE STUDY 5 CHAPTER II: LITERATURE REVIEW 6 I INVESTMENT DECISION-MAKING AND PERFORMANCE IN STOCK MARKET 6 I1 The selling decisions 6 I2 The buying decisions 7 I3 The Investment performance 8 II FACTORS AFFECTING INVESTMENT DECISION-MAKING 9 II1 Political factors: 9 II2 Internal factors: 10 II3 Economic factors: 11 II4 Psychological factors: 12 II5 Expected rate of return: 13 III RESEARCH MODEL 14 CHAPTER III: METHODOLOGY 16 I RESEARCH METHOD 16 II RESEARCH SITE 17 III RESEARCH SAMPLE 17 iv

5 IV RESEARCH DESIGN 18 V RESEARCH TOOLS 18 VI DATA COLLECTION PROCEDURE 21 VII PROCEDURES AND METHOD OF DATA ANALYSIS 22 CHAPTER IV: DATA ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION 23 I DATA BACKGROUND: 23 I1 Data Sample: 23 I2 Sample Demographic: 25 II RELIABILITY TEST: 28 III FACTORS ANALYSIS FOR AFFECTING INVESTMENT DECISION AND THE VARIABLES OF INVESTMENT PERFORMANCE: 30 IV AFFECTING LEVELS OF FACTORS ON INVESTMENT DECISIONS AND PERFORMANCE: 36 IV1 Impact of psychological factor on the investment decision: 36 IV2 Impact of internal factor on the investment decision: 37 IV3 Impact of economic factor on the investment decision: 38 IV4 Impact of political news on the investment decision: 38 IV5 Impact of political events on the investment decision: 39 IV6 Impact of expected rate of return on the investment decision: 39 IV7 Investment decision: 40 IV8 Investment performance: 42 V CONFIRMATION FACTOR ANALYSIS (CFA): 43 V1 Accessing reliability and validity of constructs: 43 V2 Convergent validity 44 V3 Structural Equation Modeling (SEM): 49 VI DISCUSSION 54 CHAPTER V: RECCOMMENDATION AND CONCLUSION 57 I CONCLUSIONS: 57 v

6 II RECOMMENDATION 57 III LIMITATIONS AND FURTHER RESEARCHES: 61 REFERENCES 62 vi

7 LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Main factors affecting investment decision making and performance in Ho Chi Minh stock exchange market 20 Table 2: Number of questionnaires collected 23 Table 3: Gender 25 Table 4: Ages 26 Table 5: Taking course of stock 27 Table 6: Cronbach s alpha of Variables 28 Table 7: KMO and Bartlett's Test 31 Table 8:Total Variance Explained 31 Table 9: Pattern Matrix 332 Table 10: KMO and Bartlett's Test 35 Table 11: Component Matrix a 35 Table 12: Descriptive Statistics of Psychological Factor 36 Table 13: Descriptive Statistics for Internal Factor 37 Table 14: Descriptive Statistics for Economic Factor Statistics 38 Table 15: Descriptive Statistics for Economic Factor Statistics 39 Table 16: Descriptive Statistics for Political events 39 Table 17: Descriptive Statistics for Expected Rate of Return events 39 Table 18: Descriptive Statistics for Investment Decision 40 Table 19: Descriptive Statistics for Stock Volume 41 Table 20: Descriptive Statistics for Horizon 41 Table 21: Correlations 41 Table 22: Descriptive Statistics for Investment Performance 42 Table 23: Results of the Composite Reliability 43 Table 24: Regression Weights 44 Table 25: AVEs 46 vii

8 Table 26: Model Fit 48 Table 27: SEM analysis 49 Table 36: Standardized Regression Weights 51 viii

9 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: VN Index from 2000 to 2014 (Source: wwwcafefvn) 2 Figure 2: Determinants of investors' financial behavior in Tehran Stock Exchange by Mahmood Yahyazadehfar, Mohammad Reza Zali and Hooman Shababi (2011), Applied Economics Letters, 18, Figure 3: The research model of factors affecting on investment decisions and performance of Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange Market 15 Figure 4: Percentage of gender of investors in Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange Market 25 Figure 5: Number of respondents based on ages 26 Figure 6: Percentage of investors have taken stock course of Stock Exchange 27 Figure 7: The final model 62 ix

10 ABSTRACT Stock Market has been appeared in Vietnam for more than 10 years Investors in this market make decision day by day, and not all of them are correct Based on previous studies about affected decisions, this study is to explore factors which affected the investment decision in order to make better decisions for investors, and to improve the investment performance Economic factor, psychological factor, political factor, internal factor, expected rate of return are considered to be factors affecting decisions Moreover, with the relationship between the expected rate of return to the investment performance, this study is also explored this relationships in order to make better performance for investors The right decisions would lead to the better performance in investment With these two purposes, this study is conducted for investors to improve their skills as well as their knowledge about stock market x

11 CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION I Background of the study The stock market has becoming one of the most interesting markets in the world nowadays The stock market is one of the most popular investments owing to its high expected profit (RJKuo, 1998, p21) In an economy, besides playing the role of a source for financing investment, stock market also performs a function as a signaling mechanism to managers regarding investment decisions, and a catalyst for corporate governance (Samuel, 1996, p 1) In some ways, the stock market is somehow reflecting the growth of its country s economy, strong economy will show that strong stock market, and vice versa (Levine and Zervos, 1996, p326) The rise in share price tends to be associated with the increase in investment, which leads to the higher growth rate of a company in specific and an economy in general (Jaswani, 2008) Stock market affects economy through its liquidity (Levine and Zervos, 1996, p326) With the financial crisis from 2008 till now, the stock market has been decreased as clear evidence People are interested in stock because of long-term growth of capital, dividends, and a hedge against the inflationary erosion of purchasing power (Teweles and Bradley, 1998, p8) They buy stocks in order to control the firm the company or they want to invest in something that later on they will sell to get money Particularly, every market, when establishing new business or any kinds of business specifically, will be based on the differences In the world, there are three types of stock market: developed (such as the 1

12 USA, the UK, Japan, EU ), emerging (such as Mexico, China, India ) and frontier or pre emerging (such as Vietnam, Estonia, Kenya ) due to the quality of markets criteria (FTSE, 2011, p2) In Vietnam, the stock market is very popular and is attracting a lot of people to invest in However, comparing with many stock markets in the world, Vietnam stock market seems to be younger but more attractive to many kinds of investors Few years ago, Vietnam stock maker is never hotter than before when it reached 1170 points in 2007, and then declining after that time shown in the figure below Therefore, the Vietnam s stock market should be the market which investors are considered to invest in now or in the future Figure 1: VN Index from 2000 to 2014 (Source: wwwcafefvn) The higher expected profit, the higher the risk is implied (RJKuo, 1998, p21) to invest in this market When the stock market begins, investors will make decisions to buy stocks and will wait for the stock prices come up An effective decisionmaking in stock market requires better insight, and understanding of human nature in a 2

13 global perspective, apart from sharp financial skills and ability to gain best out of investments (Jane Njeri Wamae, 2013, p 68) However, there are some factors are affecting the investment decision making of investors due to forecasting errors Actually, there are many people or institutions went into bankruptcy or homeless because of this market There are some studies proved the relationship between investors and gamblers in the stocks markets such as: Janice W Jadlow, 2010, p67 81, Łukasz Markiewicz a and Elke U Weber, 2013, p65-78, etc There are some factors such as psychology (Sun, Hsiao, 2006), economic factors, political factors, (Zhou, 2004), etc affected the decision of investors In order to know reasons why failing in this market this study is to identify factors affecting investment decision making in stock market in Ho Chi Minh City There are many relevant studies about these factors as well as this market such as: Dreman D, et al (2001) A report on the March 2001 Investor Sentiment Survey Journal of Psychology and Financial Markets, 2, ; Hill, C A (1998)How investors react to political risk, Duke Journal of Comparative and International Law, 8, ; Zhou, G (2004) Individual Investors Pay more Attention on Combinatorial Financial Product, Department of International cooperation, Republic of China; Sun, P and Hsiao, S (2006) The Influence of Investor Psychology on Disposition Effect, Joint Conference on Information Sciences, Taiwan and in Vietnam: Luu Thi Bich Ngoc(2013) Behavior Pattern of Individual Investors in Stock Market, International Journal of Business and Management; 9; Le Phuoc Luong and Doan Thi Thu Ha(2011) Behavioral factors influencing individual investors decision-making and performance: A survey at the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange This study is to apply information of studies mentioned above based on Vietnam s current situations in order to find out which factors affect significant to the investors decision and gives some suggestions to improve their decision in the stock market Therefore, this study is about factors affecting investors decision-making in Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange 3

14 II PUROSE OF THE STUDY Due to the relationships between stock market and economy and many factors, the change in stock market will affect the development of the economy Thus, the decisions of investment on stock market play an important role in defining the market trend, which then influence the economy The purpose of the study is to find out factors affecting investment decision-making and performance in the Ho Chi Minh stock market at the moment Moreover, this study also gives suggestions to improve investors decision based on these factors to have better performance From this research, investors can have a general idea and decide to make decision more correctly This study is mainly to answer the two research questions: What factors affecting investment decision making in the Ho Chi Minh stock market? How these factors affecting investment performance in the Ho Chi Minh stock market? III SCOPE OF THE STUDY This study is about factors affecting investors decision making and their performance through questionnaires which were delivered people who had been participated in the stock market in Ho Chi Minh City with a sample size of 300 The scope of the study will be discussed more in chapter 3: Methodology of the study IV DELIMITATIONS OF THE RESEARCH Due to limits of time doing research, this study is aim to identify factors which affect investors decision making in Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange However, it is 4

15 necessary to expand the research in the Hanoi Stock Exchange (HNX) and the sample in order to have a big picture as well as reliable information of entire Vietnam investors V STRUCTURE OF THE STUDY The research is organized into 5 parts: Introduction, Literature Review and Methodology, Data Analysis, Conclusion and Recommendations Introduction contains Background to the study, purpose of the study, Scope of the study, and Structure of the study Literature Review includes definitions of investment decision making, performance, and factors affecting to investment decision The next part of this study is Methodology and this show some approaches to conduct this research Later after collecting the data from questionnaires, analysis will be conducted to give results about these factors, and later on will be a discussion part and recommendation 5

16 CHAPTER II LITERATURE REVIEW I INVESTMENT DECISION-MAKING AND PERFORMANCE IN STOCK MARKET The decision-making is a complex process includes analysis of many factors and following steps (Jane Njeri Wamae, 2013, p68) In the stock market, making investment decision is even more accurate and complicate in a stock market and such decisions need better insight, understanding based on some factors, and there are several investment decisions related to stock trading, such as: buying, selling, holding stock, and volume of stock to trade However, in this research, two important stock trading decisions: selling and buying are focused because they are related to the other decisions, and highly impact on the investment performance of investors in Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange Market I1 The selling decisions Investors who purchase stocks on favorable information may sell if the price goes up, rationally believing that price now reflects this information, and may continue to hold if the price goes down, rationally believing that information is not yet incorporated into price (Odean,2000) Individual investors tend to sell stocks which exceeds compared to the original price in order to make profit In case of the current price is less than the original buying price, investors will tend to hold their stocks and expect them to go up in the near future In the other hands, Odean also suggested that average sold stocks is 6

17 greater than that of the average return of stocks that investors hold on On the other hand, the tendency of investors sold after prior gains too soon (Odean, 2000) and this also was proved by Shefrin and Statman (1985) Investors believe that their current loosing amount of stocks would outperform in the future and wait for the price to come up, and if investors lower their expectation of stock returns, they would sell stocks Typically, relevant studies also recommended that investors should sell stocks rather than hold stocks in order to have higher returns Thomas Mussweiler and Karl Schneller (2010) stated that many investors tended to sell when prices were high and bought when they were low and this suggested that investors were likely to invest in a high one based on history prices Moreover, with modern software to catch up with stock prices, investors can make their decisions easily based on chart to sell stocks with the higher chart more likely than the lower chart Thomas Mussweiler and Karl Schneller (2010) also stated that selling behavior is produced by changing in the informational basis used to making investment decisions I2 The buying decisions Odean (2000) provides several understandings about the preferable stocks that individual investors would like to buy Odean found that investors tended to buy stocks that were outperformed in the past, and buying decisions were related to both prior winning and losing stocks When making a decision of stock purchase, people may not find a good stock to buy after considering systematically the thousands of listed securities and they normally buy a stock that caught their interest, advises from their brokers and friends, and maybe the greatest source for attention is from the tremendous past performance In deciding whether to buy a particular stock or not, investors are likely to be influenced not only by the specific company such as financial intermediaries but also by 7

18 the current situation of the economy Particularly, investors would need some consultant services or companies to suggest the buying signal of stocks which are forecasted to be outperformed in the future Moreover, investors would likely to choose to invest in the one that have higher chart than other stocks; the higher one means the higher price and healthy stock Thomas Mussweiler and Karl Schneller (2010) also concluded that the buying decision of investors depended on the nature of the chart of that stock RJ Kuo et al (2001) stated that if the signal is over the upper bound, then go ahead to buy the stocks, and if the signal is below the lower bound, then sell the stock I3 The Investment performance Investment performance of investors can be said as the return of investment of single or multiple assets and it is measured over a specific period of time Kim and Nofsinger (2003, p2) claimed that stocks experiencing the greatest increase in possession could earn a negative return during the year; whereas, stocks that experienced the most decrease in individual ownership may earn a positive return The authors found that stocks that had significant increases in individual ownership (purchased stocks) were the past winning stocks, they were also surprised to explore that stocks getting significant decreases in individual ownership (sold stocks) were also the past winners as the same result as Odean (2000) About time period, Lin and Swanson (2003, p208) measured investment performance, and they recognized that investors achieved excellent performance, which existed in the short run and is partially driven by short-term price, and excellent performance vanishes or was deteriorated for mid-term and long-term periods Thus, investment performance is well appeared in the short-term rather than long and mid-term periods S Basu (2006) also studied about relationship between investment performance and financial ratios, and authors found that the financial ratios were not fully reflected the situation of particular stock which investors choose to invest in, but the relationships between the financial ratios and investment performance were valid 8

19 However, the investment performance is also affected by many other factors which are more discussed in the next part of this study There are many ways to measure the investment performance, but in this study is to ask whether investors are satisfied with their performance and ask them to compare their currently real return rates to their expected return rates while the objective evaluation is done by the comparison between the real return rates and the average return rate of the security market based on satisfactions followed investment return rate of Oberlechner and Osler (2004) Therefore, the investment performance was measured based on the satisfactions of investors towards to their returns which will be discussed in the next part II FACTORS AFFECTING INVESTMENT DECISION-MAKING II1 Political factors: A political factor is used to describe any activities that are related to the administrative practices and government policy, and it can have both desirable and undesirable effects on the daily lives of citizens Moreover, most business cooperation will keep watching on any political factor, such as new legislation or amended law, which could have a substantial impact on how their company operates Like mentioned above, the stock market is somehow reflect the current situation of particular country, so good political news can affect a lot to investment decision of any kinds of business not only stocks Dreman et al (2001) investigated the effective factors on investors behavior in New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on 309 investors and the result was that gossips and news that were related to high return of stock might affect the investors purchasing decision When having high returns of stocks, investors would, of course, want to invest more to make profits Moreover, the results are more accurate with Hill (1998) when researching about political risk and its effects on stockholders decision-making, and he 9

20 concluded that the political factors had a great impact on investors decision, and these factors were differentiate among countries Political factors such as: internal political news, events; internal governors suggestions; foreign political news, governors suggestions; international pressures; elections, etc However, in this study is separated this factor into Political News and Political events such as: elections, cabinet changes, etc Also, the political factors which have an impact to investment decision making were investigated and analyzed by many authors, this study are measured how these factors affect to investors in Ho Chi Minh City by many items which will be discussed more in the next chapter about decision on stock market and relationship with the expected rate of returns with the investment performance Hypothesis H1a: Political news affects investment decision-making in the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange Market Hypothesis H1b: Political news affects investment performance through expected rate of returns in the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange Market Hypothesis H2a: Political events affect investment decision-making in the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange Market Hypothesis H2b: Political events affect investment performance through expected rate of returns in the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange Market II2 Internal factors: In perspective of individual, internal factor plays an important role of making decisions in all kinds of activities Internal factor in stock market are knowledge about finance such as financial ratios, understanding balance sheet items, etc National Association of Securities Dealers (NASD) investigated different aspects of investors decision making in US stock exchange based on decision knowledge of investors and 10

21 other effective factors on financial behavior in 2005, and the result was that 53% of investors believed that increase in decision making knowledge was relatively important and 44% of them confirm this advancement was very important, 3% contend that this was not important Moreover, that study also concluded that 80% of investors believed that balance sheet data of audited firms can be used to make an ideal decision in stock exchange To be more specific, investors would look up the financial statement such as balance sheet, cash flow in order to make decision McKinsey Institute investigation on investors decision-making in several countries in 2002 and they concluded that accounting disclosure and financial indices were important factors that investors relied on when they wanted to make a decision about stock exchanges Filomena Pietrovito (2009) stated that managers use the information contained in the price-earnings ratios to make investment decisions, and firms with higher growth opportunities accumulated more capital and that the stock market had a key role in channeling funds toward investment projects Thus, investors can use their financial knowledge, and many different things efficiently to make investment decision in Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange Market Hypothesis H3a: Internal factors affect investment decision-making in the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange Market Hypothesis H3b: Internal factors affect investment performance based on decisions in the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange Market II3 Economic factors: Economic factors such as interest rate and inflation rate have been affected the stock market from times to times Gang Zhou (2004) believed that economic factors were much more important than other factors in their decision-making and they used a combination of capital goods to reduce their risks Moreover, Mahmood Yahyazadehfar, et al (2011) stated that investment replacements such as financial investment replacement 11

22 and physical investment replacement also included in economic factors to affect the investment decision For examples, when the Government released the news about inflation rate was decreased this year, stock prices would come up very fast, like mentioned above, a good economy would represent a good stock market as well as many corporations did well on their business, and vice versa Paul Imonikhe, et al (2009) and Richard Roll and Stephen A Ross (2012) also found the same result with previous studies that economic factors did influence the return as well as the price of the stock market Moreover, Paul Imonikhe, et al (2009) also stated that the expected rate of return is also affected by the economic factors Economic factors and the stock market have a relationship which were proven by many studies, like Nai Fu Chen (1986), he also stated that not only the stock market but also the expected rate of returns of the stocks of investors In this study, the economic factors are measured by four items to see how their impacts on the stock market of Ho Chi Minh City Hypothesis H4a: Economic factors affect investment decision-making in the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange Market Hypothesis H4b: Economic factors affect investment performance through expected rate of returns in the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange Market II4 Psychological factors: Psychological factors are factors which are from characteristics or personalities of individual investors Sun and Hsiao (2006) examined the influences of overconfidence, mental accounting, regret aversion and self-control on the disposition effect of selling winners too early and holding losers too long, and Odean (2001) also mentioned about that too And the result was all four psychological factors have significant influences on the disposition effect: overconfidence, mental accounting and self-control positively influence the disposition effect, and self-control negatively 12

23 influenced the disposition effects which meant that self-control can reduce irrational behavior of investor Nowadays, psychological factors can expand the range into emotions like regret and proud that can affect investment decisions Regret is an emotion occurs after people make mistakes Investors avoid regret by refusing to sell decreasing shares and willing to sell increasing ones, and to be more specific that investors tend to be more regretful about holding losing stocks too long than selling winning ones too soon (Forgel and Berry, 2006, p107; Lehenkari and Perttunen, 2004, p116) Psychological factor maybe is the key factor that affects most of investment decision in the stock market For examples, if investors feel happy, they will tend to buy more stocks and vice versa when they feel sad When investors are proud of their performance in the stock market, they will buy more stocks In this study, psychological factor are measured by reactions of investors to news from internet, brokers, firm s managers, recommendation, etcto measure the psychological factor which will be showed more in the next chapter Hypothesis H5a: Psychological factors affect investment decision-making in the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange Market Hypothesis H5b: Psychological factors affect investment performance through expected rate of returns in the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange Market II5 Expected rate of return: When seeking for investment opportunities, investors would have a look at expected rate of return as well as enough information about the stock that they chose Mahmood Yahyazadehfar, et al (2011) stated that expected rate of return has a direct effect on investment decision-making in the stock market and it was derived from psychological factors and political factors However, based on findings of Paul Imonikhe, et al (2009) the expected rate of return also has relationship with the economic factor which meant it was also derived from the economic factors Stock price trends, earning 13

24 yields (inverse P/E ratio) were also included in this expected rate of returns (Mahmood Yahyazadehfar, et al (2011)) In this study the expected rate of return plays as an intermediary variables which is derived from three factors: psychological factors, economic factors and political factors and is measured by stock price trends, risk and returns, and earning yield (inverse P/E ratio) in order to affect the investment decision making and the performance in Ho Chi Minh Stock Market Hypothesis H6a: Expected Rate of Return affect investment decision-making in the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange Market Hypothesis H6b: Expected Rate of Return affect investment performance in the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange Market III RESEARCH MODEL This study is combination of the path analysis of effective factors on stockholders decision-making, the findings of Paul Imonikhe, et al (2009) about the relationship between the economic factors and expected rate of return and the measured of performance of that investment decision based on investors satisfactions in the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange Market In order to have more accurate about the decision, the investment performance is measured to be more specific about decisions are made and suggestions about future decisions in the stock market to have better results as well as course of studying stock market for beginners in the market to have general ideas how the market is run and affected by factors This figure below is the original model of factors affecting investment decision-making in the stock market with adding relationship between the economic factors and expected rate of return of Paul Imonikhe, et al (2009) and later on is the model which is used in this study to measure the investment performance of decisions made 14

25 Figure 2: Research Model (Source: Mahmood Yahyazadehfar, Mohammad Reza Zali and Hooman Shababi, 2011) As mentioned in the literature review above, it is undoubtedly that these factors have impact the investment decisions of investors in the stock markets This study explores the influence levels of these variables on the investment decision making and the investment performance at the Ho Chi Minh stock market Figure 3: The research model of factors affecting on investment decisions and performance of Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange Market (Source: Author) 15

26 CHAPTER III METHODOLOGY I RESEARCH METHOD In order to know how influences these factors to investment decision-making in Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange Market; the quantitative research method is used in this study Quantitative research is to measure knowledge, opinions and attitudes for the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange market In additions, the quantitative method is to describe, explain, and predict the future, and this study is conducted by using quantitative methods because the aims are to describe, explain factors affecting investment decision making in Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange Market Quantitative analysis research aims to provide numerical information on the subject which comes up with the result that can easily convince the readers about the hypothesis validity and reliability This approach involves data collection from questionnaires to analyze The study uses quantitative research because the research s aim is to identify factors that affect investment decision making and performance in Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange Market Moreover, quantitative research is based on statistical to give results collected from questionnaires Moreover, the results are determined by computer and then the factors are found to give suggestions for these improvements for next investment opportunities as well as learning course for investors to the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange market To conclude, the quantitative is approached in this research to know how influences these factors to investment decisionmaking in Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange Market 16

27 II RESEARCH SITE The study site is limited in the Ho Chi Minh City area because of time and distances Ho Chi Minh is considered to be the best place because this is the great environment for any kinds of business especially for finance This is the center of Southern of Vietnam, so any kinds of financial market are developing especially the stock exchange market As being a center of a country with diversifies of many kinds of business and advantages in participants, thus Ho Chi Minh City is the most suitable place to conduct this study III RESEARCH SAMPLE The sample includes investors of stock exchange market who were and are joining the stock exchange market and convenience sampling was chosen to conduct the study Specially, the beginner for stock market who are joining the stock market as a small account for Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange Market As the research aims at exploring the factors at the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange Market, a relative large sample size is recommended The larger sample size is the more representative it can be, thus, the more reliable result is (Saunders et al, 2009, p219) Nevertheless, the sample size depends on researchers available resources including time, finance and human (Saunders et al, 2009, p212) Hair, Black, Babin, Andersion and Tatham (1998, p111) suggest that with quantitative approach, at least 100 respondents should be studied in order to have fit the statistical methods of data analysis Therefore, 300 questionnaires are sent to all kinds of investors who were and are joining in the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange Market as a real or demo account as well as small or large amount of money in account 17

28 IV RESEARCH DESIGN The research design was formed by generating the problems and descriptive research were chosen to conduct the research design Descriptive research design is particularly focused on what questions in order to describe and explain In this study, this design is to describe and factors to know how effects to investment decision in Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange market Moreover, the questionnaires were given to target people to perform the statistical results, and the purposes of conducting questionnaires are to understand these problems: Factors affect investment decision making in Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange Market Level of influences of these factors to investment performance in Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange Market These problems will be in the questionnaires and method for collecting data V RESEARCH TOOLS For collecting data, surveys were given to 300 people to interpret with the statistical results The questionnaires in the survey are closed to the research model mentioned above and the questionnaire is divided into three parts: demographic information, factors affecting investment decisions, and investment performance First part was included demographic questions, and there are nine demographic questions about respondents such as: gender, rang of age, married status, education level, number of years working, income, time of attending stock market, learning course of stock market, and estimation of amount of money invested in Ho Chi Minh Stock market The second part would be focused on the factors affecting investment decision like economic factors, political factors, psychological factors, and internal factors Based on the answer of respondents from questionnaires, this study will examine which the main factors are affecting much in investment decision making and performance in Ho Chi Minh stock 18

29 exchange market Besides the information collected from respondents, this study also measured satisfactions the performance of stock investment through three more questions in order to have better investment decision in the near future The table below is the summary of all items measured factors, and the investment performamance Table 1: Main factors affecting investment decision making and performance in Ho Chi Minh stock exchange market Psychological Factors Released news and news on Internet Stock exchange Authorities suggest Interview with firm s manager Affiliates recommend Sun, Hsiao (2006) Associations informal news Stockbroker s suggestions Consultancy services Internal Factors Applying financial proportion Knowing financial proportion Financial proportion s efficiency National Association of Securities Dealers (NASD) (2005) Bolen, Cohen (2005) SIA (2003) Balance sheet items Trust to balance sheet data Relationships between balance sheet data and stock profit returns Trading volume 19

30 Cashing power Legal investors decision-making Economic Interest rate Zhou(2004) Factors Financial investment substitutions Dreman,Johnson, McGregor,Slovic Physical investment substitutions (2001), Paul Imonikhe, et al (2009) Inflation rate Political news Internal political news Zhou(2004),Hill(1998), factors Internal political events Dreman,Johnson, McGregor,Slovic Internal governors suggestions (2001) Foreign political news Foreign governors suggestions International pressures Elections University students struggles Political events factor Cabinet changes Environmental changes Political relations Contracts and boycotts Expected rate of Risk and return Dreman,Johnson, McGregor,Slovic 20

31 return Earning yield (2001), Stock price trend Investment performance Return rate of recent stock investment meets expectation Oberlechner and Osler (2004) Rate of return is equal to or higher than the average return rate of the market Satisfy with investment decisions in the last year (including selling, buying, choosing stocks, and deciding the stock volumes) (Source: Author) VI DATA COLLECTION PROCEDURE The primary data was collected by questionnaires which were given to people who are joining or joined the Ho Chi Minh stock exchange market, and people who are traders from financial intermediaries, broker firms in Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange Market In order to support and strengthen the research s purpose, it was also necessary to use secondary data such as journals/ articles and books since the previous studies will provide diversified information The questions should be clear and well-understandable for respondents in order to finish the survey in a short time This study is not to conduct the long and complex questions because long questions can waste their time and as a result that they finish without reading anything in the survey Besides giving the survey face to face, the questionnaires in this study are also sent to people from many forums of finance via internet Collecting data from two ways can guarantee that this study could have a reliable source 21

32 VII PROCEDURES AND METHOD OF DATA ANALYSIS Data analysis focused on the data received from the questionnaires Here the data was checked for validity, on other words, the chosen questionnaires must be useful to the research because not all respondents completed a questionnaire exactly as expected The actual number of valid questionnaires was clearly lower than the number of questionnaires that were answered After identifying and bringing out all the data expected, the data was entered into the calculation program Within the expectations of invalid data and not all of the questionnaires are given back is valid, that is why the sample of this study is 300 After collecting data, processing data is necessary by using SPSS and SEM With SPSS and SEM, this study was supported to give parameters as well as to give results about the factors affecting investment decision making and performance in Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange market 22

33 CHAPTER IV DATA ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION I DATA BACKGROUND: I1 Data Sample: Within the expectation of the sample would be 300 respondents, there are 164 respondents are reported in different securities companies, and through online survey collected of which security companies do not allow to contact with their customer directly must through online In the limitation of online trading, it was difficult to contact with investors, and the expected sample was not matched with the current one Table below are categorized distributions of security companies where respondents are contacted of trading Company name Table 2: Number of questionnaires collected Number of questionnaires received Saigon Securities Incorporation (SSI) 25 Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HOSE) 20 Ho Chi Minh Securities Corporation (HSC) 15 Tai Viet Joint Stock Company (Vietstock) 15 Tan Viet Joint Stock Company (TVSI) 15 23

34 SaiGonBank Berjaya Joint Stock Company (SBBS) 15 Vietnam International Securities (VISecurities) 5 PetroVietnam Securities Incorporated (PSI) 5 BIDV Securities Company (BSC) 5 (Source: Data) With the total of 120 respondents from security companies, there are 44 respondents from companies which do not contact directly with their customers Moreover, they said that if sending the online survey, that could be filled in for this study In conclusion, there are total 164 respondents which are not met with the expectation from the beginning, but this data was also supported by many authors with famous research papers such as: Hemanta Doloi, et al, (2012) used sample of 77 respondents to conduct the SEM analysis Using the SEM methodology on 87 responses, Eriksson and Pesamaa (2007) successfully unveiled some of the key issues of procurement effects on cooperative arrangements within construction organizations An investigation carried out by Jin et al (2007) for understanding the relationship-based determinants of building projects was based on 116 Doloi s (2009b) finding that communication is the key factor in relational partnering success used 97 targeted responses in an SEM analysis based on Australian construction projects Investigating the factors affecting lean manufacturing practices across different industries, Vinodh and Joy (2012) applied the SEM approach based on 60 valid responses collected Therefore, the sample size of 164 should be accepted for further SEM analysis In addition, the descriptive statistics in the SPSS software were used to explore characteristics of the sample: gender, ages, etc which will be discussed in the next part 24

35 I2 Sample Demographic: Total 164 questionnaires are reported and these characteristics of gender, age, married status, working experience, income, time of participation in the stock market, taking stock courses or not, stock volume, horizontal stock trading, and invested amount of money in the stock market Tables and Figures are summarized as bellows Table 3: GENDER Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent Male Valid Female Total (Source: Data) Figure 4: Percentage of gender of investors in Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange Market (Source: Data) 25

36 This figure shows the percentage of investors in Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange Market; 628% of male and 372% of female, obviously there are more male investors than female investors in securities 256% Table 4: Ages Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent < Valid > Total (Source: Data) Figure 5: Number of respondents based on ages (Source: Data) 26

37 As in the figure and tablet above, this research has limitation with contacted with investors with 40 years old above, and this can be concluded that the stock investors are mainly at the ages from 19 to 39 (154 investors that accounts for 934% of the total sample), while 66% of the respondents being at the age-range of less than 18, and above 40 years old With the range of less than 18 years old, it is obviously that young ages is difficult to join this market because they have to enroll in high school and attending universities, and they have no time to attend this market especially some early interested ones (there are 2 respondents less than 18 years old) Moreover, number of respondents with age older than 40 years old, it was not because they are not security companies, but it was because they did not want to take the questionnaires Therefore, number of respondents from 19 to 39 was in the high proportion of this sample Table 5: Taking course of stock Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent Yes Valid No Total (Source: Data) Course Stock Yes No Figure 6: Percentage of investors have taken stock course of Stock Exchange (Source: Data) 27

38 The Figure shows that the individual investors in the surveyed sample who already take the course of stock trading account for 689 per cent while who have not yet taken any course of this field are 311 per cent The investors who took course are double higher than the investors who did not take any course I RELIABILITY TEST: The reliability test is used to measure the consistency of scores from item to item, and reliability of items included in the factors With the purpose to test whether all items are measure the same thing Cronbach s Alpha Test is used to test the internal consistency reliability of measurements, which are in formats of continuous variables It includes a statistical summary that describes the consistency of a specific sample of respondents across a set of questions or variables In the other words, it can help to estimate the reliability of participants responses to the measurement This research uses Cronbach s alpha to test the reliability of the measurements included in the factors that are formed after the factor analysis Nunnally (1978, p245), Peterson (1994), Slater (1995) suggests that Cronbach s alpha should be at least 06 to make sure that the measurements are reliable, and the corrected item-total correlations, which reflect the correlation of variables or items designated with the total score for all other items, should be at the acceptable score of 03 This research chooses the acceptable Cronbach s alpha is 06, with the corrected item-total correlation index is 03 The results of Cronbach s alpha test are shown in the Table below are all accepted Table 6: Cronbach s alpha of Variables Factors Variables Cronbach s alpha Corrected Item-Total Correlation Cronbach's alpha if Item deleted Psychology Psy

39 Psy Psy Psy Psy Psy Psy Internal Int Int Int Int Int Int Int Int Economic Eco Eco Eco Eco Political news factor Poli Poli Poli Poli Poli Poli

40 Political events factor Poli Poli Poli Poli Poli Expected Ex Ex Ex Performance Per Per Per Decision De De2 753 (Source: Data) II FACTORS ANALYSIS FOR AFFECTING INVESTMENT DECISION AND THE VARIABLES OF INVESTMENT PERFORMANCE: The questions from 12 to 46 of the questionnaire, which are coded from Psy1 to Psy7, Int1 to Int8, Eco1 to Eco4, Polit1 to Poli11, Ex1 to Ex3, and De1 to De2,, are designed to explore the levels of factors variables impacts on investment decisions at the HOSE Moreover, questions from 47 to 49 which are coded from Per1 to Per3 are created to identify the evaluation of investors about their own investment performance EFA is used to reduce the number of items in the questionnaire that do not meet the criteria of the analysis (O brien, 2007, p142) In this research, the following 30

41 criteria of the exploratory factor analysis are applied: Factor loadings, KMO, Total variance explained Factor loadings are defined as correlations of each item with the factor that it belongs to, and are greater than 05 to ensure that EFA has a practical significance to the analyzed data (Hair et al, 1998, p111) The Kaiser-Meyer Olkin Measure of Sampling Adequacy (KMO) presents the level of suitability of using EFA for the collected data The KMO should be between 05 and 10 (significant level less than 0005) (Ali, Zairi and Mahat, 2006, p16) Total variance explained is used to identify the number of retained factors, and is suggested to be more than 50% (Hair et al, 1998, p111) The requirements of factor analysis are satisfied to reduce the variables After some rounds of removing the unsuitable variables, the analysis results that the remaining variables are grouped into eight factors (six factors of economic, psychology, internal, political news, political events, expected rate of return, one factor of investment decision, and one factor of investment performance Table 7: KMO and Bartlett's Test Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin Measure of Sampling Adequacy Appro x Chi-Square Bartlett's Test df of Sphericity Sig (Source: Data) Table 8:Total Variance Explained 31

42 Factor Total Initial Eigenvalues % of Variance Cumulative % Total Extraction Sums of Squared Loadings % of Varianc e Cumulative % Rotation Sums of Squared Loadings Total

43 (Source: Data) Table 9: Pattern Matrix Psy1 Psy2 Psy3 Psy4 Psy5 Psy6 Psy7 Factor

44 34 Int1 832 Int2 816 Int3 865 Int4 750 Int5 816 Int6 719 Int7 777 Int8 738 Eco1 792 Eco2 811 Eco3 821 Eco4 746 Poli2 570 Poli3 850 Poli4 764 Poli5 841 Poli7 629 Poli8 593 Poli9 895 Poli Ex1 667 Ex2 691 Ex3 746 De1 851 De2 875 (Source: Data)

45 As shown in the Table 9, there are six factors that impact the investment decisions of investors at the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange In the political news factor, four of five original variables from the questionnaire are kept after the factor analysis Only four of six original items of political news are accepted by factor analysis The rest of other factors are remained the same with the original one The table also shows that all the two investment decision are accepted by factor analysis and belong to one group dimension This indicates that F7 can be used as the representative factor for three variables De1, and De2 The similar applications can be also used for F1, F2, F3, F4, F5 and F6 to be representative for affecting variables Then EFA was conducted for Investment Performance (Per) in order to make sure that variables for Investment Performance would group into one group Adequacy Sphericity Table 10: KMO and Bartlett's Test Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin Measure of Sampling Bartlett's Test of Square 718 Approx Chi df 3 Sig 000 (Source: Data) Table 11: Component Matrix Component Per1 900 Per2 881 Per

46 (Source: Data) According to the results from table above, all factors loading of Investment Performance variables were greater than 05 and all variables grouped into one group The KMO of 0718 was accepted and the total variance explained of 76789% Therefore, variables of Investment Performance are kept into next part of testing III AFFECTING LEVELS OF FACTORS ON INVESTMENT DECISIONS AND PERFORMANCE: The impact of levels of factors on the investment decision are identified by calculating the value of sample mean of each variable In similar, the variables of investment decision and investment performance are scored by identifying the mean values of the respondents evaluations for each variable In this part, only variables, which meet the requirements of above factor analysis and Cronbach s alpha test, are chosen to demonstrate their scores Because 5-point scales are used to measure the impact levels of these variables, the mean values of these variables can decide their impact levels on the investment decision making With the investment performance following the scale of agreeable level of satisfaction: IV1 Impact of psychological factor on the investment decision: seven items After running some rounds of EFA test, the psychological factors remained in and these had effects on the investment decision in table below Table 12: Descriptive Statistics of Psychological Factor Psy1 Psy2 Psy3 Psy4 Psy5 Psy6 Psy7 Valid N

47 Mean (Source: Data) In the psychological factors, with comparing to the 5-likert scale, there are three items that have high impacts on the investment decision: Psy1, Psy5, and Psy7 with mean score: 307, 316, and 310 respectively Whereas the other items, like Psy2, Psy3, Psy4, and Psy6 with mean score: 263, 270, 260, and 279 respectively This means that investors at the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange tend to rely on financial news, associations informal news, and financial consultancy to make decision on their stock investment IV2 Impact of internal factor on the investment decision: In the dimension of internal factors, all items in this factor have high impact on the investment decision based on their mean score Therefore, it can be concluded that investors at Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange usually based on their internal factor such as: knowledge about financial proportions, their cashing power, trading volume, their trust to balance sheet, and their legal investment decision making Table 13: Descriptive Statistics for Internal Factor nt1 I nt2 I nt3 I nt4 I nt5 I nt6 I nt7 I nt8 I Valid N Mean (Source: Data) 37

48 IV3 Impact of economic factor on the investment decision: With the interest rate, inflation rates, and investment substitutions, are variables for economic factor that affected investors decision are summarized in the table below: Table 14: Descriptive Statistics for Economic Factor Statistics Eco1 Eco2 Eco3 Eco4 N Valid Mean (Source: Data) Table above presents clearly that all of items measured the economic factor have high impact on investors decision with mean score: interest rate with 335, financial investment substitution 316, physical investment substation 303, and inflation rate 325 respectively Therefore, these items are considered carefully before investors made a decision about stock purchasing or selling Moreover, the interest rate can be considered is the strongest one which the highest mean score 335 above three items, and interest rate can be concluded is the important thing for investors to make decision IV4 Impact of political news on the investment decision: As in table above, political news seems quite new for investors in Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange Market and they have not considered any political news so far with the mean score: Poli2 (Internal governors suggestions) with 282, Poli3 (Foreign political news) with 294, Poli4 (Foreign governors suggestions) with 268, and Poli5 (International pressure) with 294 In the other hand, investors at Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange Market did not have to focus on the political news 38

49 Table 15: Descriptive Statistics for political news factor Statistics Poli2 Poli3 Poli4 Poli5 Valid N Mean (Source: Data) IV5 Impact of political events on the investment decision: Table 16: Descriptive Statistics for Frequencies of answering questionnaires Poli7 Poli8 Poli9 Poli10 Valid N Mean (Source: Data) With the same conclusion and a little less mean score compared to political news, the political events factor is also have low impact on the investment decision, Poli7 (University students struggles) with 174, Poli8 (cabinet changes) with 247, Poli9 (Environmental changes) with 191, and Poli10 (political relations) Political events and political news are in the same conclusion about the impacts on decision, and investors do not focus a little bit based on the political events to make decision IV6 Impact of expected rate of return on the investment decision: Table 17: Descriptive Statistics for Expected Rate of Return events Ex1 Ex2 Ex3 39

50 Valid Mean (Source: Data) High mean score with Expected rate of returns factors, all the three items have high impact on investors decision Risk and return with 361, earning yield (reverse P/E ratio) with 341, and the highest stock price trends with 388, this factor can be considered the important factor for investors to make decision However, this decision in this study plays as intermediary factors and derived from psychology, political, and economic to have impact on the decision, and their impact on investors performance, which would be discuss in the later IV7 Investment decision: Table 18: Descriptive Statistics for Investment Decision Stock Horizon Volume Valid N Missing 0 0 Mean (Source: Data) With the different measured scale from factors, investment decision is asked investors about how many stock they buy, and how often they trade This could be further explained about long-term investors and short-term investors which would be more details in the suggestion part 40

51 Valid Table 19: Descriptive Statistics for Stock Volume Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent Total (Source: Data) In the sample, there are 35 respondents with less than 3 stocks, 93 respondents have from 3 to 4 stocks, and 36 respondents have from 4 to 5 stocks And this is in relationship with the frequency of stock trading per 3 months or 6 months Valid Table 20: Descriptive Statistics for Horizon Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent Total (Source: Data) There are 37 respondents trade their stocks from 2 to 3 months, 109 respondents trade their stocks from 3 to 4 months, and 18respondents trade their stocks from 4 to 5 months Table 21: Correlations for Investment Decisions Stock Volume Horizon 41

52 Stock Volume Horizon Pearson Correlation ** Sig (2-tailed) 000 Pearson Correlation 753 ** 1 Sig (2-tailed) 000 N (Source: Data) There is relationship between how many stocks investors have and how often do investors trade stocks is positive correlated (significant at 001 level), this can be concluded that long-term investors who trade from more than 5 months often have more than 5 stocks, and short-term investors who trade less than 3 months have less than 3 stocks IV8 Investment performance: Table 22: Descriptive Statistics for Investment Performance Per1 Per2 Per3 N Valid Mean (Source: Data) Table shows that investors do satisfy high with their performance with all mean score larger than 3 Return rate of your recent stock investment meets expectation, rate of return is recently equal to or higher than the average return rate of the market, and satisfied with investment decisions are at agreeable level Therefore, it is suggested that investors performance is at agreeable level of satisfaction Moreover, the relationship between the expected rate of return and investment performance would be discussed later 42

53 V CONFIRMATION FACTOR ANALYSIS (CFA): V1 Accessing reliability and validity of constructs: This study is used SEM and a confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) to test the model and its validity AMOS 200 was used to test for CFA and SEM analysis The confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) is one component of SEM which helps to confirm which factors and their variables after eliminated from EFA are suitable for the structural model, and later on used to examine and determine the relationships (if significant) between factors and decision and between investment performance The composite reliability values were calculated based on Excel and formula taken from Amos estimated results The important thing is measurement followed the research model The composite reliabilities for all the factors are higher than 070, which means that the reliabilities of all questionnaires are excellent (Nunnally, 1967) Table 22: Results of the Composite Reliability CR Psychological Factor Internal Factor Political News Factor Political Events Factor Economic Factor Expected Rate of Return Investment Decision

54 (Source:Data) Investment Performance V2 Convergent validity Convergent validity relates to the extent of correlation between the intended measure and other measures used to measure the same construct (Clark-Carter, 1997) To establish convergent validity, each of factor loading is greater than 05 is acceptable (Hair, et al, 2006), and average variance extracted (AVE) greater than 05 (Fornell and Larcker, 1981) To explore the convergent validity of the scales, confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) was performed in AMOS Table 23: Regression Weights Estimate SE CR P Psy7 <--- Psy 1000 Psy6 <--- Psy *** Psy5 <--- Psy *** Psy4 <--- Psy *** Psy3 <--- Psy *** Psy2 <--- Psy *** Psy1 <--- Psy *** Int7 <--- Int 1000 Int6 <--- Int *** Int5 <--- Int *** Int4 <--- Int *** Int3 <--- Int *** 44

55 Estimate SE CR P Int2 <--- Int *** Int1 <--- Int *** Poli2 <--- P Poli3 <--- P *** Poli4 <--- P *** Poli5 <--- P *** Eco1 <--- Eco 1000 Eco2 <--- Eco *** Eco3 <--- Eco *** Eco4 <--- Eco *** Ex1 <--- Ex 1000 Ex2 <--- Ex *** Ex3 <--- Ex *** Per3 <--- Per 1000 Per2 <--- Per *** Per1 <--- Per *** Int8 <--- Int *** Poli7 <--- P Poli8 <--- P *** Poli9 <--- P *** Poli10 <--- P *** Stock Volume <--- Deci

56 Estimate SE CR P Horizon <--- Deci *** (Source: Data) Table 24: Standardized Regression Weight Estimate Psy7 <--- Psy 767 Psy6 <--- Psy 747 Psy5 <--- Psy 631 Psy4 <--- Psy 850 Psy3 <--- Psy 793 Psy2 <--- Psy 828 Psy1 <--- Psy 623 Int7 <--- Int 809 Int6 <--- Int 725 Int5 <--- Int 803 Int4 <--- Int 778 Int3 <--- Int 763 Int2 <--- Int 742 Int1 <--- Int 761 Poli2 <--- P1 717 Poli3 <--- P1 895 Poli4 <--- P

57 Estimate Poli5 <--- P1 856 Eco1 <--- Eco 797 Eco2 <--- Eco 768 Eco3 <--- Eco 787 Eco4 <--- Eco 808 Ex1 <--- Ex 713 Ex2 <--- Ex 841 Ex3 <--- Ex 646 Per3 <--- Per 732 Per2 <--- Per 812 Per1 <--- Per 880 Int8 <--- Int 816 Poli7 <--- P2 561 Poli8 <--- P2 768 Poli9 <--- P2 688 Poli10 <--- P2 858 Stock Volume <--- Deci 979 Horizon <--- Deci 769 (Source: Data) As can be clearly seen from above, all factor loadings were statistically significant (p < 001) Furthermore, all standardized loading values are all greater than 47

58 05, which indicates that items reliability is currently all acceptable for further analyzing Next step is checking for AVE for each factor: Table 25: AVEs AVE Psychological 056 Internal 060 Political News 0675 Political Events Economic Expected Rate of return 055 (Source: Data) The all AVE calculated are larger than 05 and all of factors are acceptable into next step of considering the model fit indexes V3 Model Fit Measure (CFA test): CFA was conducted with aim to make sure that the measurement model fits with the data collected from questionnaires To measure the model fit, this study was applied the Chi-square (CMIN), CMIND/df, Comparative Fit Index (CFI), Tucker and Lewis Index (TLI), and Root Mean Square Error Approximation (RMSEA) 48

59 Table 26: Model Fit Fit Index Score Criterion Reference X 2 /df 1487 < 5 Marsh and Hocevar (1985) Bentler (1990) RMSEA 0055 <08 Browne and Cudeck (1993) GFI 0805 >80 Bagozzi and Yi (1988) NFI 0921 >90 Bentler andbonett (1980) CFI 0931 >90 Bentler (1990), Hatcher(1994) (Source: Data) The entire fit indexes are acceptable into next step of analyzing V3 Structural Equation Modeling (SEM): The testing of SEM is to test the hypothesized relationships in the research model Moreover, the criteria for evaluating the performance of SEM fits with the data as the same as good-of-fitness criteria for CFA: CMIND/df < 50, CFI >90, GFI >80, RMSEA < 08 After examining SEM, the overall result was acceptable: CMIN/DF=1313; TLI= 0950, CFI=0957, GFI=0826, RMSEA=0044 Table 27: SEM analysis Path Path estimate t-value p-value Results 49

60 Psy -> De Non-supported Psy -> Ex Supported Int -> De Supported P1 -> De Non-supported P1 -> Ex Supported P2 -> De Non-Supported P2 -> Ex Supported Eco -> De Non-supported Eco -> Ex Supported Ex -> Per Supported De -> Per Supported (Source: Data) The hypothesized relationships were taken from the research model to conduct the SEM According to p-value of relationships in the tablet above, Regression Weights Table, the relationships between the psychological factors, economic factor, political news factor, political events factor and expected rate of return do not have relationships with the investment decision Therefore, hypothesis H1a, H2a, H4a, H5a, and H6a are rejected Moreover, with p-values of other remaining relationships were less than 01, these relationships had statistical significance, and these results proved that: Psychological Factor, Economic Factor, Political News Factor, Political Events factor had effects on Expected Rate of Returns 50

61 Internal Factor has effects on Investment Decision Expected Rate of Returns and Investment Decision had effects on Investment Performance As a result, effects are accepted summarized in the table below: Table 28: Standardized Regression Weights Estimate Political News Factor Psychological Factor Political Events ->Expected rate of Return 240 ->Expected Rate of Return 291 ->Expected Rate of Return -266 Economic Factor ->Expected Rate of Return 288 Internal Factor ->Investment Decision -213 Investment Decision Expected Rate of Return ->Investment Performance 209 ->Investment Performance 264 (Source: Data) In terms of strength of relationships, the table above shows that Psychological Factor has the strongest positive effect on the Expected Rate of Return (0291), Economic Factor has a strong positive effects but less than Psychological with 0288, and Political News Factor also has a positive effects (0240) However, the Political Events has negative effect on the Expected Rate of Return (-0266) Moreover, the Internal Factor has negative effect on the Investment Decision (-0213), Investment Decision has positive 51

62 effect on Investment performance (0209), and Expected Rate of Return has positive effect on Investment Performance which means the other factors: economic, psychological, political news, political events also has effect on Investment Performance but have to go through Expected Rate of Return And the final research model is shown below Political News Factor Political Events Factor Investment Performance Expected Rate of Return Investment Decisions Psychological Factor Internal Factor Economic Factor Figure 7: Final model (Source: Data) Comparing to the results of Dreman, et al (2001), and M Yahyazadehfar et al (2011) that the political news and political events have high impact on investment decision of investors in New York Stock Exchange, and this finding are different from Dreman, et al (2001) findings because of different important levels of politics among countries Politics in Vietnam are different from politics in US, and there is no debate about comparing two politics Moreover, this finding is supported with Hill (1998) about political risk effects on stockholders decision-making in Southeast Asian Countries Hill stated that there are differences among political factors effect in different countries 52

63 Therefore, a different finding about political news and events with previous studies is a matter of fact because of the data population with different government control, and impacts of politics Moreover, with the psychological factor, there is also another different with previous study of Sun, Hsiao (2006) about effects of psychological factors However, with different measured items in psychological factor, differences in finding are the main reason Maybe the investors from the sample they do not know or care much about psychology or study more about this field In addition, the finding about internal factor is similar with previous studies of National Association of Securities Dealers (NASD) (2005) that investors considered carefully about balance sheet items, financial knowledge, relationship between stock prices, etc, this study is also the same supported with Hypothesis H3a About the economic and expected rate of return, these two factors in this study are not affected the investment decision at all Comparing to result of Zhou (2004), there is no effects of economic factor on investment decision However, with the result of M Yahyazadehfar, et al (2011) that they do not find any effects of economic factor and expected rate of return on investment decision either In short, only the internal factor has effect on investment decision which is similar with the result of NASD (2005) about financial knowledge, balance sheet items, etc With the M Yahyazadehfar, et al (2011), they only found out that the political factor, and psychological factor are affecting the investment decision, but in this study only internal factor affected investment decisions Moreover, about the expected rate of return, M Yahyazadehfar et al (2011) findings are the same with this study about relationships between psychological factor, political factor with expected rate of return, and the relationship between economic factor and expected rate of return with same finding with Paul Imonikhe, et al (2009) All the p- value from factors to expected rate of return is significant and positive except the political events which have negative impact In addition, the path from expected rate of return to investment performance is also supported with SEM analysis which is significant and 53

64 positive relationship which means this finding is the same with Oberlechner and Osler (2004) The internal factor affects the investment decision, and the path from investment decision to investment performance is also supported (significant), and internal factor also have impact on investment performance but it must through making decision To conclude, all factors have impacts on the investment performance in different way: economic factor, psychological, political news, political events through expected rate of return, and internal factor through investment decision VI DISCUSSION First, the questionnaires collected from investors showed that there is no relationship between psychological factor and investment decision, but the psychological factor has positive and significant relationship with the expected rate of return (path estimate= 0291), this means if psychological factor increase, then expected rate of return also increase Moreover, the expected rate of return has a positive and significant on the investment performance (path estimate= 0264) Therefore, the psychological factor also had relationship with investment performance but through expected rate of return However, not all of items of psychological factor has non relationship with the investment decision, Psy1 (released financial news), Psy5 (associations informal news), and Psy7 (financial consultancy) also are considered to have a high impact on investors decision Therefore, in Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange Market, psychological factor has a weak role in investment decision of investors, but this factor has a positive relationship with the Expected Rate of Return and Investment Performance of investors: Hypothesis H1a is not supported, but H1b is supported Second, with political news, and events factor, there is also no relationship with the investment decision and not significant, it seemed that investors in Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange Market do not consider much about these news and events In the impacts perspective, these two factors have low impact with the decision However, with 54

65 the investment performance perspective, they have relationship with the Expected Rate of Return and then Investment Performance Political news has positive relationship with the Expected Rate of Return, but the Political Events has negative relationship with the Expected Rate of Return Due to the connection between the Expected Rate of Return, these two factors also have impacts on the Investment Performance This means that the political news, and political events does not have impacts on the investment decision, but they do have on the investment performance through expected rate of return Therefore, investors should consider these two factors in the future when making decision: Hypothesis H2a is not supported, but Hypothesis H2b is supported Third, internal factor have significant impact on the investment decision but the negative one It means that when internal factor increase, the investment decision decrease It is true that investors in Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange are really considered about their internal elements before making decision Within the impact, all the items in this factor have high impact on the investment decision Moreover, within the investment performance, the internal also have impacts through investment decision The investment decision path to investment performance are significant and positive (path estimate= 0209), and therefore, the internal factor have negative relationship with the investment performance Investors on Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange are considering too much about their internal factor, leading to negative effects on the investment decision, and this consideration will lead to low their low investment performance in the stock market: Hypothesis H3a and Hypothesis H3b are supported Fourth, economic factor have high impact on the investment decision, and investors are considered this factor is a high one At last, the economic factor has no relationship with the investment decision (not statistical significant) With the expected rate of return, there are many theories between the stock market and the economy, and then there are no arguments about these two factors Economic factor has positive relationship with the Expected Rate of Return and Investment Performance, or Economic 55

66 Factor has positive relationship with the Investment Performance Therefore, the economic factor has not affected the investment decision, but it has positive impact on the investment performance through the Expected Rate of Return: Hypothesis H4a is not supported, but Hypothesis H4b is supported Fifth, the Expected Rate of Return has positive relationship with the investment performance, and no relationship with the investment decision Investors answered the questions about this factor and they said they cared less about this factor However, decisions are decisions, but the result is based on the investment performance, the expected rate of return has positive on investment performance Therefore, investors should focus on the expected rate of return to make decision in order to improve the investment performance: Hypothesis H5a is not, but Hypothesis H5b is supported Lastly, to conclude that, investment decisions in the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange Market are made based on the Internal Factor, and Investment Performance has impacts on all of factor: psychological, political news, political events, internal, economic, expected rate of return With all the relationships to investment performance, only expected rate of return has direct impact, and the rest of factors have indirect impact: political news, political events, economic factor, psychological factor must through expected rate of return to impact the investment performance Moreover, with internal factor, it affected investment decision and then investment performance, which is also an indirect impact on the investment performance These are the findings of the survey collected from investors in Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange Market 56

67 CHAPTER V RECCOMMENDATION AND CONCLUSION I CONCLUSIONS: This research studied the factors that affect investment decisions and investment performance in the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange Market The result showed that only the Internal Factor has effect on the Investment Decision (negative impact), and the others do not However, all the factors have the impacts on the investment performance while psychological factor (positive impact), economic factor (positive impact), political news factor (positive impact), and political events factor (negative impact) affected investment performance through expected rate of return which is positive impact to investment performance, and with internal factor also affected the investment performance through investment decision This research can help investors to focus on which factor would affect the investment performance the most Affecting investment decision is not enough for investors; they have to know which one is affecting the investment performance because after all investment performance is the purpose for investors to make decisions II RECOMMENDATION The specific findings are important to both related research and stock market This study provides a big picture about factors affecting investment decision and performance in Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange market Beside the investors benefit 57

68 directly from the findings of this study, the security companies can use these findings as references for their analysis and prediction of the trends of the security market, and to have good decisions to convince the investors to purchase stocks Moreover, evidence showed that investors only depend on the internal factor to make decision about stock investing in the financial market, and they do not consider other factors such as economic, psychological, political, expected rate of return In some stock markets in the world, when investors make decision, they considered a lot of things such as financial news, economy situations, etc and then to analyze carefully to make decision About academic studies, there are many studies that investors in stock exchange market focused on more than one factor to make decisions about purchasing or selling Therefore, investors in Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange Market should consider more than one factor to make decision not only internal factor but also psychological or economic factor, etc About the political events and political news factor, it is reasonable for investors to be the less careless factor for making decisions because political news, and political events factor have not been focused from the beginning of the stock market in Ho Chi Minh City, and in Vietnam general It is true that political in Vietnam does not affect much to investors, these two factors seem quite new and obviously they do not care much about news of political or events When handing out the questionnaires, one investor asks about awkward about questions about elections which are part of the politics It seems like these two factors are quite new for them In the academic studies, there should be more topics about politics affected to the stock market, and these studies would approach to securities companies to put these two factors into their lectures with the purpose for better decision in stock market In the world, there are many studies about politics affected the stock exchange market with Hill, (1998), Investigate and analyze the political risk and its effects on stockholders decision-making; M Yahyazadehfar,et al (2011) found out that the political have unpredictability about this factor and its great effects on investment decision-making Moreover, that study also proved that these two 58

69 factors have relationships with expected rate of return and then impact indirectly to the investment performance In short, in the future, not only investors but also securities companies should focus on these two factors for better decision and performance Just like the political events and political news, economic factor does not have influenced the investment decision They are not new for investors, every items in this factor seems familiar with them The current situation of the economy is affecting the stock market through years, like mentioned from the beginning (Levine and Zervos, 1996) There are many studies about this factor affected the stock market: Zhou (2004), Dreman, et al (2001), Hill (1998), Levine and Zervos, (1996), etc One more good reason for investors because the findings in this study also proved that the economic factor have impact on the expected rate of return and then investment performance Therefore, investors should pay attention to this factor for making decision Psychological factor have straight relationship to the expected rate of return and then investment performance based on Chapter IV However, this factor does not influence investment decision, but compared to the questionnaires about items for this factor, there are three items have mean score larger than 3 which means have high impact on the investment decision, and the rest does not affect at all To conclude, the psychological factor with the SEM test that does not affect the investment decision, but have a look about the mean scores of this factor that respondents put a tick on, there are 3 items that have high impacts on investment decision This finding is not matched with M Yahyazadehfar, et al (2011), and Sun, Hsiao (2006) that psychological factor have relationship with the investment decision Therefore, later studies should develop a better measurement to explore this factor again Expected rate of return which is about earning yield, stock prices trend, and risk and returns have not impact on the investment decision However, with the relationship directly with the investment performance from Oberlechner and Osler 59

70 (2004), expected rate of return has impact and positive with the investment performance Besides that relationship, other factors which interacted with this factor also affect the investment performance In the future, findings can help investors focus more on other factors to improve their performance Last is the internal factor It is true that internal factor have influenced on investment decision From descriptive statistics, all the mean scores for every item are above average and this proved that all items have high impacts on investment decision However, this research found that this relationship is negative, and negative again to the investment performance It means that the more focused on the less poor performance for investors to make their decisions Due to that negative relationship, investors should focus less on the internal factor, and consider other factor else To conclude that, recommendations for findings in this study is that investors should consider more than one factor to make decision, because the remaining factors have impact on the investment performance through expected rate of return Investment performance is the key thing to evaluate the decision is right or wrong or somehow in the middle of the sea The right decision lead to the higher performance, and vice versa the wrong decision lead to the poor one Internal is the only factor has relationship with investment decision, and then impact the investment performance All factors are affecting investment performance both directly and indirectly, and because of that investors should pay attention to the others to have a better decision in the stock market 60

71 III LIMITATIONS AND FURTHER RESEARCHES: One big limitation is the time for conducting the research with high sample The fact that nowadays investors trade online with their laptops or mobile phone, and that makes difficulties to contact them and filling in the survey Moreover, security companies seem they do not want to interact with their customers even though they know how value about the findings of research papers When asking about doing surveys, they said no, and do not care about which topics or where students came from With the purpose for better decisions and performance, there should be a corporation with two sides, the reality and the academic study Without helps from advisors, this study could have never been existed for supporting knowledge as well as relationships with security companies Moreover, about the time trading, in order to filling in the surveys, meeting with respondents is necessary, but they only trade in the morning Therefore, the time for collecting data is limited again With difficulties about interact with investors, and morning trading routines of investors, challenges for collecting data seem much harder In short, in order to conduct the primary data with questionnaires, collecting data should be expanded more time for higher sample Further research should combine qualitative method for deep interviews with investors for their opinions about making decisions and their performance to support more about the findings 61

72 REFERENCES 1 Bagozzi, Richard P and Youjae Yi (1988) On the Evaluation of Structural Equation Models, Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, 16 (Spring), Bentler, PM (1990), Comparative Fit Indexes in Structural Models, Psychological Bulletin, 107 (2), Bentler, P M, and Bonett, D G (1980) Significance tests and goodness-of-fit in the analysis of covariance structures, Psychological Bulletin, 88, Bolen, M and Cohen, M (2005) Mutual fund attributes and investor behavior, Vanderbilt University Working Paper Series, Nashville, USA, pp Browne, M W and Cudeck, R (1993) Alternative ways of assessing model fit Bollen, K A and Long, J S (Eds) Testing Structural Equation Models pp Doloi, H (2009b) Relational partnerships: the importance of communication, trust and confidence and joint risk management in achieving project success Construction 7 Management and Economics, 27, Dreman D, Johnson S, MacGregor D and Slovic, P (2001) A report on the March 2001 Investor Sentiment Survey, Journal of Psychology and Financial Markets, 2, Filomena Pietrovito (2009) Investment Decisions, Price-Earnings Ratios and Finance: Evidence from Firm-Level Data Università degli Studi del Molise 9 Eriksson, PE and Pesamaa, O (2007) Modelling procurement effects on cooperation Construction Management and Economics, 25, Genesove, D and Mayer, C (2001) Loss aversion and seller behavior: evidence from the housing marketquarterly Journal of Economics,116 (4), Hemanta Doloi, Anil Sawhney and KC Iyer (2012) Structural equation model for investigating factors affecting delay in Indian construction projects, Construction Management and Economics, 30:10,

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76 APPENDIX Questionnaires in English version I Personal Information: 1 Gender: Male Female 2 Age: < >40 3 Marital status: Single Married Divorced 4 Education level: High school and lower Undergraduated Bachelor Master and higher 5 Years of working: Under 5 years 5-10 years Over 10 years 6 Please estimate your average monthly income <5 Million 5-10 million Over 10Million 7 How long have you attended the HOSE (in years): Under 1 year 1-3 years 3-5 years Over 5 years 8 Have you attended any course of stocks? Yes No 9 Total amount of money that you have invested in HOSE: <5 Mil 5-10mil Over 10mil 10 How many stocks do investors buy usually?: >5 11 How often do investors trade or change stocks? (in months): >5 66

77 II Factors affecting investment decision: Please rank level of impact on factors that affecting your investment decision making: FACTORS 1 I usually buy or sell stocks based on released financial newsor news on Internet 2 I usually buy or sell stocks based on Stock exchange Authorities suggestions 3 I usually buy or sell stocks after interviewing with firm s manager 4 I usually buy or sell stocks based on affiliates recommendations 5 I usually buy or sell stocks based on associations informal news 6 I usually buy or sell stocks based on stockbroker s suggestions 7 I usually buy or sell stocks finance consultancy 8 I usually buy or sell stocks based on applying financial proportion 9 I usually buy or sell stocks based on knowing financial proportion 10 I usually buy or sell stocks based on financial proportion s efficiency 11 I usually buy or sell stocks based on balance sheet items 12 I usually buy or sell stocks based on trust to balance sheet data and stock profit return 13 I usually buy or sell stocks based on my trading volume 14 I usually buy or sell stocks based on my Very low Low Average High Very high 67

78 legal investors decision-making 15 I usually buy or sell stocks based on my cashing power 16 I usually buy or sell stocks based on fluctuations of interest rate 17 I usually buy or sell stocks based on my financial investment substitutions 18 I usually buy or sell stocks based on my Physical investment substitutions 19 I usually buy or sell stocks based on fluctuations of inflation rate 20 I usually buy or sell stocks based on internal political news and events 21 I usually buy or sell stocks based on internal governors suggestions 22 I usually buy or sell stocks based on Foreign political news 23 I usually buy or sell stocks based on Foreign governors suggestions 24 I usually buy or sell stocks based on International pressures announcements 25 I usually buy or sell stocks based on Elections 26 I usually buy or sell stocks based on University students struggles 27 I usually buy or sell stocks based on Cabinet changes 28 I usually buy or sell stocks based on Environmental changes 29 I usually buy or sell stocks based on Political relations 30 I usually buy or sell stocks based on Contracts and boycotts 68

79 31 I usually buy or sell stocks based on Risk and return 32 I usually buy or sell stocks based on Earning yield (Reverse P/E ratio) 33 I usually buy or sell stocks based on Stock price trend III Your Investment Performance: Please give your opinions about the levels of agreement for the following statements: Statement 1 The return rate of your recent stock investment meets your expectation 2 Your rate of return is equal to or higher than the average return rate of the market Total disagree 1 1 Disagree Neither Agree Total agree You feel satisfied with your investment decisions in the last year (including selling, buying, choosing stocks, and deciding the stock volumes)

80 Questionnaires in Vietnamese version PHIẾU PHỎNG VẤN NHÀ ĐẦU TƯ VỀ CÁC NHÂN TỐ TÁC ĐỘNG ĐẾN QUYẾT ĐỊNH ĐẦU TƯ CHỨNG KHOÁN I Thông tin cá nhân: 1 Giới tính: Nam Nữ 2 Tuổi: < >40 3 Tình trạng hôn nhân: Độc thân Đã kết hôn Ly dị 4 Trình độ học vấn: THPT trở xuống Cao đẳng, Trung cấp Đại học Thạc sỹ và cao hơn 5 Số năm kinh nghiệm làm việc: Dưới 5 năm 5-10 năm Hơn 10 năm 6 Xin vui lòng cho biết thu nhập hàng tháng: <5 triệu 5-10 triệu Hơn 10 triệu 7 Nhà đầu tư đã tham gia thị trường chứng khoán trong bao lâu? Dưới 1 năm 1-3 năm 3-5 năm Hơn 5 năm 8 Nhà đầu tư đã tham gia khóa học nào về chứng khoán chưa? Có Không 9 Tổng số tiền mà nhà đầu tư đã và đang đầu tư vào thị trường: Dưới 5 triệu 5-10 Triệu Hơn 10 triệu 10 Xin vui lòng cho biết nhà đầu tư thường mua bao nhiêu mã cổ phiếu: >5 11 Xin vui lòng cho biết trong thời gian bao lâu thì nhà đầu tư sẽ giao dịch một lần: 1tháng 2-3tháng 3-4tháng >5tháng 70

81 II Các yếu tố ảnh hưởng đến quyết định đầu tư Xin nhà đầu tư vui lòng đánh giá mức độ ảnh hưởng của những yếu tố sau đây: Các nhận định 1 Tôi thường mua hoặc bán cổ phiếu dựa trên tin tức tài chính ban hành trên báo hoặc trên website tài chính Rất thấp 1 Thấp Trung bình Cao Rất cao Tôi thường mua hoặc bán cổ phiều dựa trên đề nghị của các nhà chức trách chứng khoán 3 Tôi thường mua hoặc bán cổ phiếu sau khi phỏng vấn với quản lý doanh nghiệp 4 Tôi thường mua bán cổ phiếu dựa trên đề nghị của các chi nhánh 5 Tôi thường mua bán cổ phiếu dựa trên tin tức chính thức của các hiệp hội 6 Tôi thường mua hoặc bán cổ phiếu dựa trên đề nghị của các môi giới 7 Tôi thường mua hoặc bán cổ phiếu dựa trên tư vấn tài chính 8 Tôi thường mua hoặc bán cổ phiếu dựa trên áp dụng các chỉ số tài chính 9 Tôi thường mua hoặc bán cổ phiếu dựa trên kiến thức về các chỉ số tài chính 10 Tôi thường mua hoặc bán cổ phiếu dựa trên những chỉ số tài chính phổ biến và hiệu quả 71

82 11 Tôi thường mua hoặc bán cổ phiếu dựa trên các yếu tố trong bảng cân đối tài sản 12 Tôi thường mua hoặc bán cổ phiếu dựa trên độ tin cậy vào dữ liệu của bảng cân đối tài sản và lợi nhuận từ cổ phiếu 13 Tôi thường mua hoặc bán cổ phiếu dựa trên khối lượng giao dịch của tôi 14 Tôi thường mua hoặc bán cổ phiếu dựa trên quyền đầu tư hợp pháp của tôi 15 Tôi thường mua hoặc bán cổ phiếu dựa trên khả năng tài chính của tôi 16 Tôi thường mua hoặc bán cổ phiếu dựa trên biến động về lãi suất 17 Tôi thường mua hoặc bán cổ phiếu dựa trên các nguồn đầu tư tài chính khác thay thế 18 Tôi thường mua hoặc bán cổ phiếu dựa trên các nguồn đầu tư vật chất khác thay thế 19 Tôi thường mua hoặc bán cổ phiếu dựa trên biến động của lạm phát 20 Tôi thường mua hoặc bán cổ phiếu dựa trên thông tin và sự kiện chính trị trong nước 21 Tôi thường mua hoặc bán cổ phiếu dựa trên đề nghị của chính phủ trong nước 22 Tôi thường mua hoặc bán cổ phiếu dựa trên tin tức chính trị nước ngoài 23 Tôi thường mua hoặc bán cổ phiếu dựa trên đề nghị của chính trị nước ngoài 24 Tôi thường mua hoặc bán cổ phiếu dựa trên áp lúc tin tức của thế giới 72

83 25 Tôi thường mua hoặc bán cổ phiếu dựa trên bầu cử 26 Tôi thường mua hoặc bán cổ phiếu dựa trên ẩu đả, xô xát của sinh viên, học sinh 27 Tôi thường mua hoặc bán cổ phiếu dựa trên sự thay đổi cấu trúc nội các chính phủ 28 Tôi thường mua hoặc bán cổ phiếu dựa trên thay đổi khí hậu 29 Tôi thường mua hoặc bán cổ phiếu dựa trên quan hệ chính trị 30 Tôi thường mua hoặc bán cổ phiếu dựa trên hợp đồng và tẩy chai doanh nghiệp 31 Tôi thường mua hoặc bán cổ phiếu dựa trên rủi ro và lợi nhuận 32 Tôi thường mua bán cổ phiếu dựa trên chỉ số thu năng suất (P/E ngược) 33 Tôi thường mua hoặc bán cổ phiếu dựa trên xu hướng của giá cổ phiếu III Kết quả của nhà đầu tư: Xin nhà đầu tư vui lòng lựa chọn mức độ đồng tình đối với những phát biểu sau đây: Các nhận định 1 Các đầu tư trong năm vừa qua của tôi đem lại mức sinh lợi như tôi mong muốn Hoàn toàn không đồng ý 1 Không đồng ý Không ý kiến Đồng ý Hoàn toàn đồng ý

84 2 Cổ phiếu của tôi đem lại mức sinh lợi bằng hoặc cao hơn mức trung bình của thị trường Tôi cảm thấy hài lòng với quyết định đầu tư chứng khoán trong năm vừa qua của tôi (bao gồm cả quyết định mua, bán, chọn loại cổ phiếu và số lượng cổ phiếu) CFA model in AMOS 74

85 Structural equation modelling (SEM) in AMOS 75