Social challenges as the basis for foresight. Cooperative project between NISTEP (Japan) and Tekes (Finland)

Transcription

1 Social challenges as the basis for foresight Cooperative project between NISTEP (Japan) and Tekes (Finland) Tekes Review 227/2008

2 Social challenges as the basis for foresight Cooperative project between NISTEP (Japan) and Tekes (Finland) Mikko Syrjänen and Alina Pathan (Eds.) Themes Media and ICT in everyday life Marko Turpeinen, HIIT/KTH Health in aging society Raimo Sepponen, TKK Towards energy and material efficient society Jouko Kinnunen, Motiva Tekes Review 227/2008 Helsinki 2008

3 Tekes, the Finnish Funding Agency for Technology and Innovation Tekes is the main public funding organisation for research and development (R&D) in Finland. Tekes funds industrial projects as well as projects in research organisations, and especially promotes innovative, risk-intensive projects. Tekes offers partners from abroad a gateway to the key technology players in Finland. Tekes programmes Tekes choices for the greatest impact of R&D funding Tekes uses programmes to allocate its financing, networking and expert services to areas that are important for business and society. Programmes are launched in areas of application and technology that are in line with the focus areas in Tekes strategy. Tekes allocates about half the financing granted to companies, universities and research institutes through the programmes. Tekes programmes have been contributing to changes in the Finnish innovation environment for twenty years. Copyright Tekes All rights reserved. This publication includes materials protected under copyright law, the copyright for which is held by Tekes or a third party. The materials appearing in publications may not be used for commercial purposes. The contents of publications are the opinion of the writers and do not represent the official position of Tekes. Tekes bears no responsibility for any possible damages arising from their use. The original source must be mentioned when quoting from the materials. ISSN X ISBN Cover picture: Digital Archive Japan Inc. Cover: Oddball Graphics Oy Page layout: DTPage Oy

4 Foreword The Tekes-Japan foresight 2007 project was a joint pilot project between the Finnish Funding Agency for Technology and Innovation (Tekes) and the Japanese National Institute of Science and Technology Policy (Nistep). The processes in each country were similar although conducted separately. This report presents the Finnish foresight process and results. The previously selected societal challenges formed the starting point of the project. The main objective of the Finnish foresight process was to identify development and innovation needs and potentials related to the selected societal themes. The search for the needs and potentials were linked to the Finnish society and to global business opportunities. Tekes invited 35 Finnish experts from various research and business sectors to create a view of the future for the selected themes. The work was largely carried out in panel-meetings. The chairmen of the panels Jouko Kinnunen, Raimo Sepponen and Marko Turpeinen reported on the panel themes. Tekes would like to thank the panel members for giving their considerable knowledge, competence and experience to the benefit of this project. Without your remarkable input this process would not have been possible. Our special gratitude is expressed to the chairmen of the panels for their thorough and competent work in reporting all ideas and findings. Gaia Consulting acted as the process facilitator, who planned the panel meeting techniques in detail and supported and facilitated the work, and also reported the results of the panel meetings. Gaia s Dr. Mikko Syrjänen and Dr. Mari Hjelt provided excellent process management to the project. Tekes wishes to express its sincere thanks to the process consultant team for their very professional, profound and excellent work. Their work linked and combined the knowledge and expertise of individual panel members to build a common vision for future. The entire process and the methods used were both inspiring and creative. The results of this foresight project have already been used in Tekes s own strategic focus area work. This report will make them available to other organisations. Although there are still some challenges left for the future, such as comparing the Japanese and Finnish results, this project has been an exciting and evolving experience. Thank you all for your valuable contribution! Tekes, the Finnish Funding Agency for Technology and Innovation

5 Table of contents Foreword 1 Background and goals Process and methods Overview of work process and methods Panel process Mini-Delphi survey Methodological reflections Media and ICT in everyday life Introduction Scenarios for Vision for Roadmap Conclusions and recommendations Health in aging society Introduction Scenarios for Vision for Roadmap Conclusions Towards energy and material efficient society Introduction The foreseen changes in the operational environment Setting of a vision and strategic goals and identification of the actions needed to achieve the goals Roadmap to society based on energy and material efficiency Conclusions and recommendations Delphi survey Survey themes and respondents Media and ICT Health Energy and material efficiency Comparison of the themes Cross-thematic innovation potential Background and structure Cross-thematic challenges and issues Identified innovation potential Appendix A Full Delphi survey results Tekes Reviews in English...128

6 1 Background and goals Eija Ahola, Tekes In spring 2007 Tekes (The Finnish Funding Agency for Technology and Innovation) and NISTEP (the National Institute of Science and Technology Policy of Japan) decided to undertake a joint foresight pilot project. The project had several goals. NISTEP wanted to develop and pilot new methodologies for their next national technology foresight survey. International cooperation in foresight was important for both parties. Tekes wanted to deepen and widen foresight for some themes already identified in its own strategic focus area process and this project provided a good platform. The formulation of Tekes strategy focus areas has developed to a common foresight process. Participants include stakeholders such as Finnish companies, research institutes and public organisations that together create a view of the strategic choices for Finland. Tekes is also cooperating in foresight issues with other Finnish innovation policy actors. As an example, Tekes and the Academy of Finland conducted a joint foresight project FinnSight Networking both multi- and cross-disciplines and using panel-type discussions are essential features of Tekes s overall approach to foresight. NISTEP has a long tradition in technology foresight. They conducted their 8 th technology foresight survey in , and are now planning the 9 th. NISTEP has actively developed the foresight process and methods used. On the 8 th round they widened their scope from technology to also include socio-economic analysis. NISTEP also conduct research and analysis on trends in science and technology. The science and technology perspective and Delphi-surveys form essential parts of NISTEP s approach to foresight. The process was initiated jointly by Tekes and Nistep and implemented independently in Finland and Japan. The work process was based on similar principles and methodology in both countries but practical implementation in details varied and methods were also developed during the project. The common challenge was to create the process that is based on identified societal challenges and creates a concrete road-map for the future. Another challenge was to combine two basically different approaches used in the foresight process: Delphi survey and panel-based foresight. The selected societal challenges formed the starting point of the project. The selected themes varied somewhat between Finland and Japan. The differences in the theme descriptions reflect differences in the Japanese and Finnish societies, social systems and business organisations. The Finnish themes were based in questions related to changing media and ICT in everyday life health and wellbeing in aging society society based on energy and material efficiency. The main purpose of the process was to identify development and innovation needs and potentials related to the selected societal themes. Essential part of the process was also to look for innovation potential across and between the selected themes. The needs and potentials were linked to both Finnish society and global business opportunities. At the same time as the Tekes-Japan foresight project, an ongoing strategy process in Tekes aimed to identify future priority areas of its operations. The results of the foresight project support the selection of focus areas at Tekes. The 1

7 Tekes-Japan foresight 2007 project also contributes to the development of foresight practices and co-operation between Tekes and other organizations. Tekes invited the chairmen and panel members for each panel to participate in the work. Each panel included researchers as well as business people with visions for future and wide perspective of their own sectors and society. Gaia Consulting Ltd served as the process consultant for the project in Finland. Details of the pilot project were planned and discussed in advance and throughout the process together with the process consultants, Tekes and the chairmen. Gaia Consulting Ltd acted as a process facilitator, who planned the panel meeting techniques in detail and supported and facilitated the work. From Tekes perspective this project included several challenges leading to an experimental and creative foresight process. Societal future challenges as the starting point is new at Tekes. Combining Delphi survey to panel and workshop based foresight process was also a new initiative. International, simultaneously and independently conducted collaborative foresight was a new way to try to get some comparative results and deeper understanding of foresight results. This process will still continue. Methods developed for the process to facilitate discussion in panel meetings were creative and productive, and supported both future and strategic thinking and reporting of results. These features of the process provided a good learning platform of foresight methodologies for all participants. 2

8 2 Process and methods Mikko Syrjänen and Alina Pathan, Gaia Consulting Ltd 2.1 Overview of work process and methods This Chapter introduces the overall work process of the Tekes-Japan foresight project and the methods used. The structure of the report is as follows. The work methods used are examined below both from the point of view of theory and practical implementation. Chapter 2.2 presents the panel process and aims and accomplishments of each panel meeting. As a part of the foresight project, a Delphi type survey was conducted. This is briefly presented in Chapter 2.3. As a conclusion of the overall process, chapter 2.4 reflects the methodologies used and assesses the pilot project. The work was based on a number of foresight methods. These methods are presented in this chapter first from a theoretical point of view and then explained how each method was implemented in the Tekes-Japan foresight 2007 project. The main methods were expert panels and Delphi type survey. In addition, the expert panels were supported by scenario methods, roadmap work and various facilitation methods. The work methods and their links to the overall process are presented in figure 2.1. Expert panels The expert panel method is the most frequently used foresight method in to elicit expert knowledge. The panels are typically groups of individuals who are given 3-18 months to deliberate upon the future of a given topic. Expert panels are based on in-depth and meaningful interaction and networking between different scientific dis- Input from scenarion work at Tekes Societal needs, challenges and goals Scenario work Vision Road-map work Innovations meeting the needs and challenges Delphi survey Japanese Delphi as a starting point Technological and other solutions and their timing Prioritised strategic goals and identified policies and other actions needed for achieving the vision and objectives Figure 2.1. Overview of the process 3

9 ciplines and areas of expertise. The panel method complements other methods used in foresight. 1 Expert panels in the foresight project were divided into three themes: Healthcare and wellbeing Energy and material efficiency and Consumers and media. Each theme consisted of working groups consisting of experts. The panels were a focal point of the process. Panel members collected and analyzed information utilizing various methods to produce recommendations for Tekes. The aim of the expert panels was to identify societal challenges as well as knowledge and innovation needs and possibilities related to them. The process was supported and facilitated by a process consult. In the Finnish process the scenarios were used as descriptions of the future world and environment where decision will be made 3. Each panel developed 2-3 scenarios at the beginning of the process and these served as a basis for identifying future possibilities, needs and challenges. The basis for the scenario work in the Tekes-Japan foresight project was the scenario work previously carried out by Tekes as a part of their strategy work. These helped in identifying the basic trends and drivers, and the panelists were asked to identify significant events and trends from the point of view of their own theme before and during the first panel meeting. The theme specific scenarios were built to the year 2030, except in energy and material efficiency panel, which choose the perspective period of Scenario work The scenario method is one of the main concepts and most widely used methods in foresight. In foresight language a scenario usually refers to different stories illustrating various aspects of possible futures. Hence scenarios are not predictions about the (most probable) future or the most preferred future. To be effective, a scenario must be plausible, consistent and offer insights into the future. Plausibility in this context means that the scenario might conceivably happen. The logics in a scenario must be internally consistent and the scenario should also provide relevant insights for decisions. Scenarios help in anticipating the context in which the decision makers have to act in the future. 2 Technology road-maps and backcasting Roadmaps include visions and projections of future possible technological developments, products or environments. They map political or socio-economic goals back to the present S&T policies through various technological paths. Usually, roadmapping is a normative tool, i.e. the desired future state is pre-determined. It includes graphical representations in which nodes (states of the art in S&T development) are connected by links (causal or temporal relations) showing the nature, rate and direction of potential S&T developments Note that Nistep uses the concept scenario to refer to the desired future path that the technological development supports. Thus the Nistep scenario is closer to the vision as defined in the Finnish process

10 In the Tekes-Japan foresight project roadmapping covered also societal development (organizations, legislation, standards etc.) and innovations from a large perspective, not referring only to technology. Thus, the roadmap method used here was of a combination of technology roadmaps and backcasting. 5 The basis for the roadmaps was a vision/goal statement, which was set to each theme for the year 2030/2050. The innovation roadmap outlined needed actions and technology steps to achieve the vision/goal statement from the present situation to 2030/2050. Delphi method Delphi method is an expert survey, which is implemented in two or more rounds in which, in the later rounds of the survey the results of the previous round are given as feedback. Delphi surveys are not intended to produce statistical results that would correspond to the view a wider public. The outcomes rather represent the view of a particular group of experts. The Delphi method is not used to create consensus but to test if there is already consensus about the future developments. It reduces tacit and complex knowledge to a single statement that the respondents judge. In the most common form, the opinions sought concern particular developments and their probability, timing or significance. 6 In the Tekes-Japan foresight project the aim of the mini-delphi survey was to produce a timeline of possible solutions created by technology and other innovations. The earlier Japanese Delphi studies were used as a starting point in formulating the statements 7 and they were finalized with the help from the panel members. The main part of the survey consisted of statements including technological or other solutions and its social application or impact. For each statement, respondents were requested to express their opinion on the timing of both the technical realization and social application of the solutions. In addition to the timing of individual statements, more general questions were asked concerning the respondents expertise, the relevance of the areas covered in the survey to Finland as well as the need for public policy measures in promoting the solutions and their application. Due to a tight schedule there was only one round of the Delphi survey. The mini Delphi survey provided supporting information to the process. Results of the Delphi-survey were reported to the panel members during the work process. Distribution of work and organization Each theme had four panel meetings (workshops). The facilitator of each theme prepared the background material and Delphi-survey. The facilitators also led the discussions and took notes from each panel meeting. All practical issues were prepared in cooperation between Tekes and Gaia Consulting Ltd. The chairmen of the panels were responsible for the context of the panels but before each panel meeting the facilitator and chairman went through the structure of each panel meeting. The chairmen had also the main reporting responsibility for the panel reports. A project steering group led by Tekes was responsible for the implementation of the process. The steering group kept contact to Japan and internally with strategy process of Tekes. Tekes and Nistep shared material, results and experiences during the process. 5 Backcasting is a method to develop normative scenarios and explore their feasibility and implications. It can be characterised as a social learning process and the long term perspective makes it possible to let go of the present way of meeting certain specific social needs. More information: The statements were as such: Widespread use of 3D TV that may be watched without wearing special glasses and feeling fatigue in homes and Passive solar energy is used largely in housing. 5

11 2.2 Panel process The panel process was implemented in four separate panel meetings 8, which were arranged in autumn Three of the meetings had a duration four hours and one panel meeting was an all-day meeting, which lasted seven hours. The themes of the panel meetings are listed below. The role of the panel meeting in the overall process is illustrated in Figure 2.2. Panel meeting 1: Process kick-off, identification of trends and drivers and creating views of possible futures (September) Panel meeting 2: Identification of needs, challenges, possibilities and strategic options on the basis of possible futures (October) Panel meeting 3: Setting the vision and strategic goals, and identifying the actions needed for achieving the goals. (November). Panel meeting 4: Specifying the actions and the roadmap (December) Each panel meeting was complemented by background material and panel members were given assignments between the panel meetings. The first panel meeting included a joint kick-off with all three panels and this was followed by specific sessions for each panel separately. Panel meeting 1: Process kick-off, identification of trends and drivers and creating views of possible futures In the first panel meeting, the preliminary theme of the panel was presented by Tekes, and the theme was discussed and refined by the panel members. Additionally, an overall description of the process and general background trends and scenarios were presented. Panel members were asked to identify major drivers and trends related to their panel theme before the first meeting. These were discussed and complemented during the meeting. The main task of the meeting was to identify key trends and draft interesting scenarios Panel work Input from scenarion work at Tekes Innovations Meeting 1: Kick-off and thematic meeting scenarios Japanese the needs Delphi as a Scenario and challenges starting point work Meeting 2: Challenges, needs and strategic options Delphi survey Societal needs, challenges and goals Meeting 3: Vision, strategic Vision goals and essential milestones Technological and other solutions and their timing Road-map Meeting 4: Completing the innovation work road-map and suggestions for action plan Prioritised strategic goals and identified policies and other actions needed for achieving the vision and objectives Figure 2.2. Panel meetings as a part of the process dm # Note: In the Finnish process the word workshop was used as synonym for the panel meetings. This use or terminology differs slightly from the Japanese process. 6

12 for the theme. Panel members also specified the target year for the foresight process according to what was a relevant perspective period from the point of view of the theme. Panel meeting 2: Identification of needs, challenges, possibilities and strategic options on the basis of possible futures The preliminary scenarios drafted in the first panel meeting were the main focus point for the second panel meeting. The pre-meeting assignments covered each produced scenario. Panel members were asked to describe how the everyday life of an example family Suominen would look in each scenario and what new needs, challenges and opportunities each scenarios bring. Panel members were also asked to identify what technologies or innovations could be needed or utilized in meeting the needs, challenges or opportunities. Each scenario was discussed in the panel meeting and developed further. Some preliminary scenarios were excluded at this point as a result of group discussion. Panel members were asked to identify needs, opportunities and challenges and to group them for each scenario. These were presented to the other groups. Finally, the panel members generated ideas for possible strategic options for Finland. These ideas were not drafted per scenario but panel members had rather an opportunity to identify freely Finland s possibilities by the target year chosen. Panel meeting 3: Setting the vision and strategic goals, and identifying the actions needed for achieving the goals Notes from the previous panel meeting and preliminary results from the mini-delphi survey were the background material for the third panel meeting. Panel members were assigned in advance with a task to write down a vision/goal statement for Finland for the year 2030/2050 and to identify major solutions or changes needed to be introduced and implemented in order to achieve this goal. Panel members were also assigned to identify the level of knowledge and skills related to the theme in Finland as well as areas in which Finland is doing well and areas in which Finland is dragging behind. Chairmen held a presentation of their theme and summarized the results the process had achieved so far. The presentation was followed by a joint discussion of possible issues that have been missed in the discussions so far. The first task for the whole day panel meeting was to formulate a 1-2 sentence vision/goal statement for the panel. The second task was to analyze the present state through historical events. Panel members were requested to mark on timelines personal issues, societal events and events relevant to the theme. The third main task was to identify major solution areas and themes to achieve the vision/goal statement. These were selected as a focus point for draft roadmap analysis, which were produced in groups. Panel meeting 4: Specifying the actions and the roadmap Notes from the previous panel meeting and results from the mini-delphi survey were background material for the fourth and final meeting. Pre-meeting assignments involved identifying areas missing from the draft roadmaps and common themes in the roadmaps. The themes were discussed in the meeting jointly and they were complemented where necessary. The main focus area of the panel meeting was to develop the roadmaps further and to identify actions that are necessary for completing the goals. Panel members were first divided into groups that added missing issues and formulated a specific goal/target for each roadmap concerned. Panel members were also asked to identify critical decisions or events that lead to or can prevent achieving the goal. The completed roadmaps were cross-checked with other panel members who had an opportunity to comment and suggest missing decisions or events for each roadmap. Additionally panel members identified areas of actions that were common for the roadmaps. In the end 7

13 discussions panel members were able to give feedback for the whole foresight process and give suggestions and pinpoint focal areas for the panel chairman for reporting. Cross-thematic workshop During the panel process it was recognized that the thematic panels worked with several closely linked issues. After completing the panel workshops, the chairmen of the panels met and decided that an additional workshop for examining cross-cutting issues would be a useful addition to the process. A half day workshop with the panel chairmen and Tekes representatives was thus organized. Cross-cutting issues are presented separately in Chapter Mini-Delphi survey The latest Japanese Delphi survey 9 served as a starting point in developing a suitable survey for the Finnish foresight process. The statements of the Japanese Delphi served as a starting point and potentially interesting statements were selected from the thematically broad survey by the facilitator and the thematic experts at Tekes. This initial list was analysed, less interesting statements were dropped and additional statements were added. The draft list of statements was sent for comments to the panel members after which the facilitator and Tekes experts finalized the survey. The survey was implemented in only one round. This differs from normal Delphi method in which the results of the previous round are given as feedback. The survey was implemented as a web survey. The survey request was sent to the panel members and to the mailing lists of selected Tekes technology programmes. In total 130 persons responded. Each thematic area had statements and in addition some general questions. The respondents answered the statements of only one of the thematic areas although they also had the option to answer the others. The results of the Delphi survey are presented in Chapter Methodological reflections The Tekes Japan foresight process also served as a foresight method test bed. It combined the panel approach with Delphi type survey, which has not been a common practice in foresight. The project can be overall regarded as successful. For many panel members, the process was a valuable learning experience and the process created mutual understanding among panel members. For the chairmen responsible for the reporting, the views of the panel members and all panel meetings produced a lot of written material. Additionally, at the end of the process chairmen themselves wanted to have an additional meeting for cross-thematic discussions. The expert panel work received especially additional value by being facilitated by an independent facilitator, which differs from the handbook panel work method. The methodology and work methods used proved to be successful in producing new ideas. However tight schedule created challenges for this as most of the time had to be used for communicating existing knowledge. When considering aspects to develop similar types of projects, one aspect is the background knowledge of the panel members. The Tekes Japan process did not include a literature review part and hence the process relied heavily on the information and expertise each panelist brought into the process. If more time and resources would have been allocated to produce background information, this could have been brought to the panel meetings as background material. A literature review in the beginning and a stronger contextual support throughout the process could ensure that no relevant aspects are ignored

14 Another important area is the support for commitment and the group dynamics. This requires first of all that there is adequate number of people in each panel to secure sufficient participation (at least 7 8 people) in each meeting. The initial group that is invited should hence be even up to 15 people, depending on the level of commitment. Concerning the commitment, enough time should be allocated to the first panel meeting in order to allow panel members to become better acquainted with each other and to commit them to the process. In the Finnish process the utilization of the mini-delphi survey turned out to be challenging. In Japan, there is a consistent tradition of Delphi-surveys, but the Finnish survey was not sufficiently integrated into the process. The panel members should have had a more active role in formulating the Delphi statements and the areas in the Delphi survey should have been selected only when the main solutions for each theme had been identified in panel meeting 3. In this way the Delphi work would have better supported the roadmap work. During the foresight process a cross-comparison between themes could be valuable. In this case such a comparison was done between panel chairmen only during the report writing phase. This meeting aimed at identifying links between the themes and recommendations. However, this could have been a planned procedure from the beginning so that it would have supported the work in the panels. Hence sufficient resources should be allocated to this kind of comparison in case the thematic areas have linkages like in this case. Furthermore, a comparison also between Japanese and Finnish results could have produced new insights. In general, more co-operation with the Japanese would have been productive. Finally, it is important to keep in mind that this kind of foresight project is an individual-centered process. The results of the process can be potentially dominated by the chairman or individual panel members, and this should be taken into notice when assessing the results and utilizing them. Particularly, this is a challenge when the results are intended to be used in the actual strategic policy making to decide on R&D funding allocation. Far reaching and important decisions cannot be based on the opinions of few individuals given in the context where the participants themselves perhaps do not realize the intended use of the results. On the other hand, the surprise elements and capability of the foresight process to create new ideas suffer if the process is focused only on the consensus opinions validated with a large group of individuals. In planning the foresight one should pay attention in using methods which enforce panel members to participate equally so that also the more silent ones get their voice through and which also vary and force the participants to look at issues from various different points of view. Last but not least, it should be kept in mind that foresight is intended to support the strategic decision making but not to replace it. 9

15 3 Media and ICT in everyday life Professor Marko Turpeinen Kungliga Tekniska Högskolan Helsinki Institute for Information Technology Panel chairman Marko Turpeinen, Kungliga Tekniska Högskolan and Helsinki Institute for Information Technology Panel members Timo Argillander, Digital Media Finland Oy Kari Hjelt, Nokia Research Center Helene Juhola, The Federation of the Finnish Media Industry Oskar Korkman, Vectia Foresight Göte Nyman, University of Helsinki Petteri Repo, Nordic Consumer Research Centre Risto Setälä, Tekes Pirjo Tiainen, MTV MEDIA Janne Viemerö, Tekes 3.1 Introduction Media takes an ever-growing share of our everyday life. The media landscape is also rapidly changing, mainly due to technical innovations and to the accelerating adoption of new technology by the consumer market. The latest examples are the vast expansion of Internet-based media and mobile technologies over the past 20 years. In parallel, the media industry has grown in volume and importance in the global economy. As new media technologies are created, they challenge and change the traditional mass media industries, which need to adapt their strategies to retain and extend their markets. Also, the use of media communication in industries and activities that lie outside the media industry proper is rapidly expanding. Finally, the public sector is making tremendous investments in applying modern media technology to effectively provide mediated services to citizens. The title of this work refers to convergence, which is frequently used to denote the ongoing restructuring of media industry as well as to describe the developments in media forms, distribution, and consumption. The original media convergence term from mid-1980s by Nicholas Negroponte predicted that broadcasting, print and computer industry would converge into a much larger media industry. In the 1990s, this transformed into convergence between media, telecommunications, and computer industries. On the other hand, we have seen technological variability explode, and the amount of media offerings increase rapidly. In many ways the consumer is facing a diverging landscape of media content, distribution channels and digital devices to choose from, and the rate of this change is accelerating. Our task in this foresight work was to first formulate future scenarios of media use, primarily in Finland. Based on these scenarios we defined a vision for Finland s media and communication sector, and sketched roadmaps to complete that vision. We decided to approach our work through two different timeframes: year 2030 in defining future scenarios, and 2020 in specifying Finland s vision and roadmaps. It is therefore a humbling task to consider the scenarios for the next 20 years of consumer media use, as it is likely that new changes of scale similar to the breakthroughs of the Internet and mobile communications have already started, but they are not yet identifiable. Equally, it is likely that new developments totally unforeseen today will emerge. To put the task of our group work in context, we did an exercise placing different media and communication uses and technologies of the past 30 years on a timeline. The result (Figure 3.1) shows that there has been a tremendous leap in technology and change in media use during this time in 10

16 Figure 3.1. Timeline of evolution of media use and related technology Finland. Sector barriers have broken down, and we have moved from a monoculture to a very diverse cultural basis supported by media industry that is growing rapidly in complexity. The overall wealth in Finnish society has grown and people have invested in media, communication and new technology. In everyday consumption, the biggest change has been the willingness of consumers to invest in telecommunication services, whereas traditional media products have shown more modest growth. Finland has become a country of 5 million people with more than 6 million active mobile phone accounts. Internet access has become quite ubiquitous in Finland with drastic growth in broadband use, and willingness to invest in PC and networking infrastructure in households. The explosion of mobile and Internet communications is reflected in the current industrial sectors in Finland. ICT sector has become the flagship of Finnish industry, led by Nokia, and supported by a large ecosystem of local companies forming the Nokia cluster. Finland has also been at the forefront in exploring new forms of mobile-enabled everyday services, but these initiatives are yet to make a significant breakthrough in terms of usage and business success. On the other hand, despite having had a leading role in Internet penetration and specific areas such as Internet banking, Finland is not anymore a leading developer of new everyday services for the Internet. Paradoxically, this position was lost during the first half of the 2000s despite the rapid growth of Internet use. This happened because of bloated expectations and investments of the millennium tech hype were succeeded by a nearly total innovation and development freeze in most Finnish media and telecommunications companies. There has also been only few successful start-up companies, and many of them have been sold to international owners in an early stage of business growth. Looking at this development through the lenses of the traditional media industry, a different picture emerges. In the mindset of media corporations, the net has only recently evolved into being one of the three large media alongside with print and television, moving ahead of books, magazines, radio, and games, and to be taken seriously. Different media compete of people s attention, which has now started to shift towards the net. And where people go, media advertising follows. However, the full picture of media usage in people s everyday life includes all previous media, and they are being reformed as synergies are found between the new and the old. Growth of the Internet does not mean the death of other media. Looking closer at different types of media, following observations can be made: Print. Maybe the media that has most often been considered (by some) to be on the brink of extinction is the print media. Despite gloomy predictions, print media has shown its strength and resilience in the time of rapid digitalization. Paper is still unrivalled as a medium for concentrated reading. However, there are signs in the market that the changes in media use and 11

17 shifts in advertising spending are posing large challenges to the traditional print industry. Print executives are especially concerned about the shrinking consumption of print products by the younger generations. This shift is probably most visible in the newspaper market in US, but also many other large markets have been in decline. This has resulted in newspaper companies increasing their investments in cross media products and web sites to recover some of the lost marketshare advertising market, and especially in classified ads. Book and magazine publishing as not been as much affected yet by the growth of the electronic media. There are also wider implications of these changing patterns of media use, as manifested by the growing downsizing pressures in the Finnish forest industry. Television. Television is the other mass media giant that has changed tremendously the everyday life and consumption patterns of people in the last 50 years. Finnish broadcasting industry has gone though several major changes in the recent years. The infrastructure has been digitalized, consumers have changed their home equipment to comply with digital standards, and commercial television companies have made significant investments in new pay-tv channels to make a shift from advertising based revenues to direct consumer subscriptions. We are also witnessing a rapid expansion of transfer of video contents on the Internet. One driver for this growth is the desire to deliver high quality video-on-demand over the Internet. Equally, there has been a vast expansion of use of short-clip-formatted video from sites like YouTube, which has grown into the world s third most accessed Web site in just two years. P2P distribution of video has expanded from marginal activity into a phenomenon that threatens the existing business models of broadcast television and DVD sales. Simultaneously, there are significant differences between age groups in the consumption behavior. Broadcast TV watching in Finland shows a distinct generation gap between the people over and under 45 years. The older people are the more they follow the broadcast media and their amount of TV watching minutes has been growing in the past 10 years. The situation is the opposite for the generations below 45 where the trend is slowly downwards. As this behavioral gap is widening, it may be reasonable to assume that traditional broadcast TV watching has already peaked in Finland. Since the largest consumer groups of current broadcasting television are over 45-year olds, it is vital to understand how the older consumer segments will behave in the future Games. Gaming branch has grown rapidly to be one of the largest sectors of media industry. As an example, the most popular massively-multiplayer online game is called Word of Warcraft (i.e. WoW), which is operated by US-based Blizzard and owned by French media conglomerate Vivendi. It has 10 million active subscribers globally spending 20 hours/ week on average playing the game, and paying approximately 12 euros/month to play the game. This would result in 1,5 billion euros of subscription revenue in 2008, which probably makes WoW the most profitable media product of our time. This rapidly growing online gaming sector has resulted from a merger between technically capable infrastructure, social media use, and creative content production. Programming and software have a key role to play in the development of a modern entertainment media. This means also that the media sector has increasing need for people who are skilled software architects, designers and engineers. Game industry is a prime example of this convergence. Social media. There has been a vast social media gap that new Internet uses have filled bit by bit. The growth of the social media use is rapidly rising, and social media services have become the most popular forms of web media alongside with information search. There is also a strong overlap between social media use and new forms of video sharing and gaming. It can also be assumed that we have seen only the beginning of this change as we move away from the dichotomy of personal media and one-to-one communications versus mass media. There are thousands of shades of grey in between and they interact in very complex ways. It is no longer meaningful to talk about the clearly defined virtual world or cyberspace as something different and separated from the 12

18 real world. We are seeing many phenomena of how these two are intertwined. There is also a growing need for individualistic social behavior. We choose the social networks and the connections in more individualistic terms, but the goals of the collective may be quite altruistic and truly collective. Many recent global societal changes have been triggered by novel media and communication technologies that are fueling the change towards a network society. The network-based media industry is global and multi-faceted as innovative entrepreneurs are developing new types of content and services. Traditional computer industry companies have shifted their attention from hardware and software applications to digital media and mediated services, as demonstrated by global giants such as Microsoft, Apple, SonyEricsson, Nokia, Google and Yahoo. There is general belief that media technology is one of the biggest global growth drivers (similarly to software industry in 80s and 90s) within the next decades, and there are several media technology areas of excellence in Finland: mobile technology and applications, digital television, paper products, social media services, games, human-computer interaction, knowledge in publishing industry, content management, and semantic web. It seems that Finland is ideally positioned strategically in shaping these future developments because of the existing strong foothold in the underlying media and communications technology. This report examines how to reach this potential starting with future scenarios that define the framework for discussion. 3.2 Scenarios for 2030 To better understand and analyze possible future potential we have used the method of scenario development, which has the goal of painting pictures of possible futures that can further be used as a tool for analysis and discussion. The main dimensions for the future scenarios were decided to be non-technical, as we assumed that the rapid development in media and communications technology is expected as default. Technology changes are on the roadmap and they are crucial for future development. However, it is hard to predict which are the core technical areas where media technology is likely to develop most. The dimensions under study are more reflecting the relationship of this change to other factors involving our everyday media use. The two areas that were selected for the analysis were the media behavior of people and their values and attitudes, which were further refined into two dimensions to characterize and differentiate the possible future scenarios. These dimensions were named as 1) change in everyday life, and 2) agency in media use. When considering media use in everyday life it is sometimes difficult to say how much change has actually happened, and how much of this change has resulted due to the media. Although the growth of the Internet and mobile technology in past 10 years has been phenomenal, the question is whether they have filled old needs or created totally new behaviors. By selecting the second dimension of agency, we ask the question of whose role it is to provide and package the media that people find in their everyday use. Who is in the steering wheel: the professional producer or the consumer? The realistic answer is that it will be a mixture of both, but what makes this interesting is that people s behavior and expectations are currently changing. The resulting media consumption scenarios were named as follows (Figure 3.2): 1. Better everyday media: The role of the media and communication continues to be to assist people in their everyday tasks. The technology naturally evolves, but our everyday practices remain approximately unchanged; people work, learn, interact and entertain themselves for the same purposes and roughly through the same means as before. The role of media is both to provide the agenda and pace for the day, but also to allow people the flexibility to choose, to experiment and to be active. 2. Web 5.0: The social media becomes the dominant mode of media use in everyday life. This 13

19 Strong agency, individual control Stable everyday life 1. Better everyday media 2. Web Human 2.0 Changing everyday life Weak agency, media as the agent Figure 3.2. Three scenarios of the media future means also that everyday practices of people are changing and this is both enabled by technology, but also taking place due to different socio-economic processes that drive this changing media use. The agency is very much on the side of the user of media technology. The user is behind the driving wheel, making selections on what, why, where and when. The role of professional content creators, especially journalism, is not necessarily diminishing, but is moving towards a role of facilitator of dialogue for various parties involved in on-going dialogue and constantly evolving media script. 3. Human 2.0: The role of media is to augment humans in their daily tasks, especially in making seamless context-specific decisions for our benefit, choosing to filter the most relevant pieces of information to us anytime, and by providing new tools for more efficient learning and knowledge creation. Media s role is to help us to carry our daily tasks better, and to provide us new skills and entertainment experiences that has not been previously possible. People have high trust on media service producers to provide us with the right thing at the right time. The control is to a large degree on the side media, consisting of both professional media producers offering material for individualized packaging as well as smart software systems that make the choices on our behalf and assist us. In the following sections we introduce and discuss these scenarios in more detail. Scenario 1: Better everyday media The scenario is based on the idea that everyday life changes relatively slowly, and that our everyday routines are not so different in 2030 from today. The home is the point where batteries are being reloaded and it continues to act as the focus point around which our lives revolve. Media finds its role in different everyday contexts, between which there are quite clear boundaries (home, work, leisure time, public spaces). There are no (or only very few) technological changes or breakthroughs that would be so radical that they change our everyday routines in a significant way. There are no drastic changes in practices and the role of media (and media technology) as the information filter, agenda setter, pacemaker, and packager. On the other dimension of our analysis, i.e. agency, this scenario balances in the middle ground. In many ways this can also be continuation from the current situation where we have already moved many steps toward media use, which is much more controlled by the consumer. One important change is that media use becomes more real-time, partly enabled by mobile broadband Internet. The ubiquitous accessibility (any- 14

20 thing, anywhere media) becomes finally a reality. Most popular uses of Internet - search engines, messaging, social media, electronic commerce, banking and payments, entertainment - have migrated to mobile devices. Mobile TV is also a progression on this trend having mainly the same media content, but with new devices and new usage contexts. The richness and multitude of different family structures will continue to grow. Despite this, family entertainment at home is in central role and is reflected in home electronics, building styles and decoration. The home electronics equipment often includes a multitude of devices for different entertainment, and non-entertainment purposes. For the evenings, the family gathers in front of the latest craze: 3DTV. One continuation along this path is that digital and electronic media become a seamless part of our everyday life. Media can be tailored much better than today based on own interests and needs. Active media use and participation in community activities is more relevant. In many ways this can be considered relevant to the ideas of ubiquitous or ambient intelligence where the goal of new technology is to make life easier but also to disappear, to go out of the way, so that people can go on living their lives in a more pleasant and effective way. However, as the technological infrastructure grows more complex, there will be a growing need to be able to effortlessly control the home media environment for entertainment. The underlying technology infrastructure will be drastically simplified reversing the current trend of growing complexity at home. No wonder people find this complexity too overwhelming and demand seamless interconnectivity and simplicity. This growth can currently be seen, for example, by considering the modern digital photo infrastructure consisting of several digital cameras, mobile phones, transfer cables, wireless connections, PC, TV, media boxes, removable hard disks, backups, scanners, printers, drivers, various desktop software, available network services, etc. Print media has also evolved to be smarter and to better meet the everyday needs of people. There will be new systems for producing and printing high-quality print publications at home, or in the neighborhood. The frequency of physical delivery times of newspapers to homes is increased and become more flexible, i.e. people can have their morning paper, afternoon paper, evening paper, or a customized family paper according to need. There is also a significant growth in family-centric self-published content. New media and information technology is effortless, seamless, not requiring plenty of attention (such like paper is today). One of the most important technical steps forward has been made in the area of observing human behavior and adapting to it. 10 Home environments will also become smarter than they are now. They can notice who is there and where other people are. In general, the use of location tracking information everywhere grows. This naturally raises plenty of privacy concerns, but also new technical solutions for privacy management and pseudonymous services have made these issues less of a topic for burning discussion. People are very concerned about security, including both data security and physical security. This continues to be a booming industry trying to alleviate the risks of the vulnerabilities of our digital and physical life situations. Unique identification of people has been solved, and we have persistent ID-auras in everyday use that are the representation of our electronic identities. Technology makes possible real-time communication, coordination and control in different life contexts and between them. ICT and media supports better control of balance between working tasks and own time. will not be as important as it is now for everyday electronic commu- 10 We may be approaching the Starfire vision by Sun Microsystems (1993, which had the emphasis on natural interaction, seamless transfer of media between different devices, and ubiquitous media capture. 15