Mobile Advertising and Marketing Review

Transcription

1 November 11, 2011 Managing Director Research

2 Section 1: Executive Overview The mobile advertising and marketing industry is currently undergoing a period of rapid expansion, fundamental change, and ascendency in importance to companies of all industries. It is an industry that is benefitting from both organic growth as well as net sum zero growth as it converges on traditional advertising, marketing, on- line advertising and marketing, and digital commerce. And it is an industry that represents both opportunity and risk for investors and corporate and business development managers. In this report we will cover the landscape of mobile advertising and marketing to help investors and other interested parties understand the industry, its players, the key trends driving the industry and how those trends relate to the financial markets and mergers and acquisitions activity. An Industry in the Throes of Change Mobile advertising and marketing is in the midst of a fundamental change in players, roles, importance, and markets based primarily on the emergence of the smartphone. The smartphone brings new capabilities and information for mobile marketers to use to reach potential customers. Smartphones have changed the behavior of mobile users making users more accessible to those that want to reach them via that mobile device especially when combined with the move of social media into the mobile environment. And, perhaps most importantly, the smartphone has brought U.S. consumers en- masse into the mobile marketing discussion in a way that they were not in the feature- phone paradigm. The result has been a wave of new mobile marketing companies that are blurring the lines between advertising and marketing and commerce; bringing new and more targeted and cost effective ways to understand, engage, and sell to customers. Carriers, social media players, and device manufacturers are battling to control access to that customer via walled- garden strategies none of which might be successful. Traditional mobile technologies such as SMS have seen an upswing in utilization on smartphones, ironically, spurring growth in the more traditional sectors of the mobile advertising and marketing industry at the same time as sowing the seeds of the next generation of mobile advertising and mobile marketing capabilities. Lastly, the blurring of the lines between the mobile internet and the internet is rapidly bringing the established digital marketing and advertising players (including social media- based) into the mobile marketing and advertising space. 1

3 We expect the next months to continue to be exceptionally active in the mobile advertising and marketing space as new ideas continue to emerge and companies that have been formed on the back of the smartphone and social media revolutions begin to mature (on a relative basis) to show real promise as businesses. Mobile Advertising & Marketing, a Finance and M&A Overview Mobile advertising and marketing continues to attract a large amount of venture investment. The vast majority of current investments in the sector are early stage, focused on companies that are developing smartphone- enabled solutions. Sub- segments of the mobile advertising and marketing industry such as mobile- loyalty, mobile video, location- based applications, and marketing/commerce hybrids have garnered much of the attention as VCs rush to fund new ideas to exploit the capabilities and functionality of smartphones. From a strategic M&A perspective, much of what is garnering this early stage activity is too small/early for larger players (read: acquirers) to garner M&A attention. That said, there have been some examples of early- stage companies being purchased for their technology and strategic entry into a market segment, e.g., Google s acquisition of 18 month- old Punchd in July for a reported $10MM to augment Google s small- and medium- sized mobile business offerings. Where there has been M&A activity in this sector, it has initially come in two areas: 1. On- line Giants moving into mobile by extending the existing on- line model into mobile, e.g., Google s acquisition of Admob, or Apple s acquisition of Quattro. 2. Consolidation of the traditional mobile advertising and marketing, e.g., on- deck applications, SMS marketing around technology platforms and/or in order to scale. Looking forward, we expect the on- line players, carriers, and equipment manufacturers to continue to be active in expanding their offerings. While the first wave of ad networks which most resembles the core on- line ad network business of many of these players has mostly come and gone, there are derivations of ad networks, geographic players, etc. that will continue to attract attention. We also expect selective investment in strategic technology plays to accelerate into some of the emerging areas where smartphone- enabled technologies and services are showing traction, primarily in terms of user adoption, not necessarily from a financial perspective. 2

4 Lastly, we expect that the trend toward consolidation of traditional mobile advertising and marketing sub- segments to continue and expand into the more internet- oriented digital advertising and marketing players. We believe these large companies will be looking to use M&A as a mechanism to rapidly bring more integrated offerings to market as well as beef up on the talent familiar experienced with carrier- centric mobile technologies and relationships that these more internet oriented companies do not currently have in house. Key Market Trends and Drivers The promise of mobile advertising and marketing has been a long time coming particularly in the U.S. The reasons for the slow penetration of mobile advertisingand marketing into the U.S. market are tied up in the historical (and primarily carrier- driven) challenges and limitations associated with U.S. adoption and utilization of technologies such as SMS, WAP- based mobile internet, and carrier controlled on- deck applications. Over the last 4 years most of these stumbling blocks have been overcome as barriers associated with cost and functionality associated with using the data- driven capabilities of the mobile network have been removed. The result is that mobile advertising and marketing are finally beginning to penetrate the world s largest consumer market at a meaningful level. This penetration is significant enough that investors and industry players need to address the growth potential and/or competitive threats that mobile- driven advertising, marketing and commerce pose to existing on- line and brick and mortar businesses. 3

5 Smartphone Adoption Brings Change By far the most important of these changes has been the emergence and adoption of the smartphone. Unlike SMS penetration (the primary driver of much of the pre- smartphone mobile marketing industry) where the U.S. was a laggard in adoption, the U.S. is leading the world in smartphone penetration. Today more than 35% of all 100%! 90%! 80%! 70%! 60%! 68%! 66%! 60%! 54%! 45%! 45%! 50%! 40%! 30%! 20%! 10%! 32%! 34%! 40%! 46%! 55%! 55%! 0%! Feb, 2010! Mar, 2010! Apr, 2010! May, 2010! Jun, 2010! Jul, 2010! Aug, 2010! Sep, 2010! Oct, 2010! Nov, 2010! Dec, 2010! Jan, 2011! Feb, 2011! Mar, 2011! Apr, 2011! May, 2011! Smartphones Buyers (% of all mobile purchases) Smartphone Feature Phone Figure 2.1: Global Smartphone Penetration Source: Nielson Americans have a smartphone, with more than 50% of all new mobile device purchases being smartphones which is ahead of the global market s 45%. Figure 2.1 shows the global penetration of smartphones through May of The biggest impact that the emergence of the smartphone has had on the mobile marketing business has been to drastically increase the computing power and functionality in the hands of the mobile user. Common smartphone features such as cameras and GPS provide mobile advertisers and marketers with additional tools with which to gather data and engage the user. Many of the newer players in the mobile advertising and marketing sector are businesses built around innovative use of those capabilities. Less obvious, but perhaps more important, are the impacts that smartphones have had on mobile user behavior and how that has driven penetration of mobile 4

6 advertising and marketing. For instance SMS usage has accelerated (as seen below in figure 2.2) since the advent of the smartphone. Certainly some of this can be attributed to carriers in the U.S. moving to more user- friendly pricing plans for SMS messages, but the smartphone s form- factor advantages over feature phones for SMS usage is also a significant contributor to that growth. 4,000! Volume of SMS Messages (Billions)! 3,500! 3,000! 2,500! 2,000! 1,500! 1,000! 500! 0! 2008! 2009! 2010! 2011! 2012! 2013! 2014! 2015! Volume of SMS Messages Figure 2.2: Global SMS Volume (est.) Source: Frost & Sullivan Is it Advertising, Marketing, Media, Commerce, or All of the Above This is a knock- on effect of the smartphone revolution. Where traditional SMS- based mobile advertising or marketing was primarily about delivering messages to users via a new medium (the mobile phone), the functionality of the smartphone has greatly enhanced the ability of marketers to understand and engage the mobile user in innovative ways. The lines between advertising, marketing, social- driven media (which is well suited to the mobile smartphone platform), and commerce are blurring as new companies seek to not only reach the user with a message but to reach the right user, at the right time, in the right place, and keep that user engaged through the end of the transactional process. This blurring of the lines creates difficulty for investors and corporate managers as companies that have positioned themselves in seemingly different sectors and sub- sectors of the mobile advertising, mobile marketing, and mobile commerce universe overlap. This approach of common markets from different angles is also is creating confusion amongst companies looking to more aggressively reach 5

7 customers and drive transactions via mobile as there are little in the way of truly integrated offerings as of yet leaving companies to assemble various providers for any particular application. We think that one place where there will be significant activity will be around the sorting of these blurred lines as stand- alone businesses are integrated into large integrated offerings as features, and as mobile- specific expertise is combined with more established traditional on- line digital media, advertising and ecommerce offerings. If It s Digital, it s Mobile (or If it s Not, it Will Be) One major trend over the next 18 months will be the collapse of the boundaries between traditional PC- bound on- line digital advertising and marketing and mobile advertising and marketing. To a degree we have already begun to see this with large on- line players buying up mobile advertising networks (e.g., Apple, Google, etc.). Again, a key component of this trend is the spread of the smartphone (and to a lessor degree the tablet), which has, in turn, driven both overall mobile internet usage, and a shift away from mobile- specific, and feature- poor m.xxx.com WAP sites (mobile- specific sites primarily designed to work on feature phones) to either feature- rich smartphone/table platform- specific mobile internet sites/applications, or the regular internet delivered into a tablet or smartphone because that device has the power and form- factor capable of handling traditional on- line sites designed for PCs. Millions of Users! 2,000! 1,800! 1,600! 1,400! 1,200! 1,000! 800! 600! 400! 200! 0! 2007! 2008! 2009! 2010! 2011! 2012! 2013! 2014! 2015! Mobile v. Desktop Internet Access Desktop Internet User Mobile Internet User Figure 2.3: Mobile v. Desktop Internet Access (est.) Source: GigaOm, Kinesis Survey Technologies 6

8 By 2013, it is estimated that mobile internet access will surpass desktop internet access (see Figure 2.3 above). Closed Ecosystems Walled Gardens Re- Incarnate Traditionally, the carriers, in co- operation with their handset partners, pursued a walled garden strategy to control and maximize the revenue from mobile users which were reliant carriers for access to the wireless network and, via handset subsidization, to the mobile devices as well. This was primarily done by controlling access to the user via the on- deck applications and ability to modify the devices that users are able to connect to the mobile network. By taxing their partners looking to market to, or otherwise interact with, the carrier s captive universe of mobile users, wireless carriers were in a position to profit from this control. This approach was, in part, behind the slow adoption of mobile advertising and marketing in the U.S. The functionality of what has been available on- deck has been somewhat limited (carriers are somewhat slow moving and not known for innovation), and the tax levied against potential partners and the reliance on the carrier for access to the user, were seen as significant hurdles to outside players/partners. The smartphone has obviously blown a large hole in this walled garden approach as users can now completely bypass the on- deck control that carriers have with feature phones. As such, we expect carriers and handset players to continue to be active in looking at ways they replace the fallen walled garden approach and leverage their continuing potential advantage that comes from their near- monopoly on distribution for mobile devices (including smartphones). The downfall of the carrier walled- garden, however, is not the end of the walled- garden story. Apple, not surprisingly, has been pursuing similar strategy around its iphone (and to a lessor degree ipad) using its OS and closed App Store approach to set up its own version a walled garden the closed ecosystem. How complete, or successful, this approach ultimately becomes is open for debate. We believe that while Apple would like to be more aggressive in extracting tolls from players in their closed ecosystem, they have to walk a careful line due to the more internet- oriented nature of the players in their market (many of which are sensitive to such behavior having come from the freewheeling on- line internet environment) and the threat posed by Google and Android which have, by definition, a more open ecosystem. Mobile Talent is at a Premium The last key market trend we see in the mobile advertising and marketing space is a premium on carrier relations and traditional mobile technology expertise. We fully expect mobile marketers and commerce players to pursue more and more 7

9 integrated, feature- rich, and automated solutions for customers, driven primarily via more internet- enabled capabilities and smartphones. And while much of this innovation will be around internet technologies, the integration of text and other mobile technologies, not to mention interacting with carriers, and traditional mobile industry players will be a crucial part of any integrated offering. We believe this will place a premium on those skillsets that understand the rules, technologies, and landscape of advertising and marketing to mobile users and mobile technologies, particularly SMS/MMS. We expect that there will be both consolidation around technologies and teams with these abilities as well as acquisitions by more on- line oriented players for this reason. 8