Predictive Analytics for Procurement Lead Time Forecasting at Lockheed Martin Space Systems

Transcription

1 Orange County Convention Center Orlando, Florida June 3-5, 2014 Session Code: 0204 Predictive Analytics for Procurement Lead Time Forecasting at Lockheed Martin Space Systems Using SAP HANA, R, and the SAP Predictive Analysis Toolset Daniel B. Foley Senior IT Program Manager for Lockheed Martin Enterprise Business Services John Vance Sullivan Practice Lead for SAP Big Data Science Delivery

2 AGENDA Welcome Best practices in defining Analytic Use Cases Business Process Management and selecting and implementing Analytic Algorithms Demonstration of the analytics solution and the business value insight gained in the procurement supply chain

3 Make this session valuable to YOU

4 Best Practice in defining Analytics Use Cases Setting the Stage Prove the capabilities of the HANA enabled SAP Predictive Analytic Tools by using a proven control group business process, that has an actionable analytic test group value. Identify Accessible dataset. Value defined by the business Influence Item Cost, Buyer, Location, Item Quantity, Vendor, Delivery Time Timing From which Vendor? What is the quality?

5 3 keys for Predictive Analytics Use Cases Identify Who or What is identified in the business case and has data? Influence Who or What is susceptible to influence? Timing When is the best time to influence the identified targets?

6 Testing the IIT Best Practices Mergers & Acquisition Framework

7 Algorithm Selection Clustering Association Regression Time Series Decision Tree Neural Networks Outliers

8 3 keys for Predictive Model Selection Identify Ask questions which narrow to one or two of the major algorithm types? Influence What parameters yield increased insight? Test Try different models and rank their approach related to the control group?

9 Best Practice in selecting Analytics Algorithms Setting the Stage There is no magic bullet. Plan on revision and refinement. Model technique and assumptions based on business needs Generation the test design and select the control group Henry Ford s Use Case If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses. Construct the model with changeable parameter settings Conduct model assessment and revise the parameter settings

10 Fitting the Business Case to the Model Understand the current business process. Keep IT Simple. We picked a process we fully understood. A control group is critical. We had an internal process application to serve as our control group. Pick a path. We explored two algorithms and chose one based on influence parameters. Revise the next steps. Upon comparing our test / control group we discussed ways to improve and expand.

11 Solution Environment Data Discovery (Data Scientists) Application Support (Technical Analysts) Business Decisions (Business Analyst) Reports Dashboards (Business End Users) BI4 Platform (SAP Webi, Analysis for Office, Explorer, Lumira) Alerts/ Exceptions/Distribution via browser and mobile devices SAP Predictive Analysis 2014 Q2 KXEN Enhancement SAP Predictive Landscape SAP HANA Studio Analytics Algorithms (Code Programming) HANA Application Layer HANA Studio with UI5 R Server SAP HANA Predictive Analytic Libraries(AFL/BFL/PAL) Unbounded Manipulation Super User Rights Interactive Experience Guided Views Limited Rights

12 DEMO DEMONSTRATION

13 Questions / Discussion Daniel B. Foley Lockheed Martin Space Systems dan.b.foley@lmco.com T h a n k Y o u John Vance Sullivan SAP America Data Science

14 THANK YOU THANK YOU FOR PARTICIPATING Please provide feedback on this session by completing a short survey via the event mobile application. SESSION CODE: 0204 For ongoing education on this area of focus, visit

15 Appendix - Business Models

16 Appendix - Business Models

17 Appendix - Business Models

18 Appendix - Business Models

19 Appendix - Business Models

20 Appendix - Business Models

21 THANK YOU THANK YOU FOR PARTICIPATING Please provide feedback on this session by completing a short survey via the event mobile application. SESSION CODE: 0204 For ongoing education on this area of focus, visit