Pilot Study Report. Urban adaptation in two Hungarian municipalities W ORKING PAP E R

Transcription

1 Pilot Study Report Urban adaptation in two Hungarian municipalities W ORKING PAP E R

2 Case Study: Vulnerability Assessment in the Hungarian Urban Settlements city of Veszprém and 13 th District of Budapest Compiling author: Mariia Khovanskaia Regional Environmental Center for Central and Eastern Europe 1

3 Table of Contents Introduction... 3 Chapter 1: General information on the case study Objectives of the study and description of research area Research conducted towards completion of the case study and knowledge base Scientific knowledge available on the topic Objectives of the Thematic Centre 3: Urban Adaptation and Health... 8 Chapter 2: Legal framework for climate adaptation process in Hungary... 8 Chapter 3: Vulnerability Assessment in Veszprém and 13 th District of Budapest Climate projections for the studied area (exposure) Methodology Stakeholder involvement and needs assessment Results from the Vulnerability Assessment of 13 th District of Budapest Results from the Vulnerability Assessment of Veszprém Financing Adaptation Measures Integrating pilot study results in policies Chapter 4: Conclusions and lessons learned Key constraints and limiting factors with regards to adaptation to climate change in urban areas and health Future challenges and opportunities with regards to adaptation to climate change in urban areas and health Possible solutions to these challenges and areas for further improvements in terms of raising the adaptive capacity urban areas and health Chapter 5: Recommendations GLOSSARY List of Indicators List of References ANNEXES

4 Introduction The Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC recognizes special vulnerability of the urban settlements vis-àvis global climate change. Over the last century it became clear that all urban systems responsible for smooth functioning if the urban settlements are vulnerable to a number of adaptation challenges.. Public health sector in the urban environment is one among the most important ones. At the moment half of the World s population lives in the cities, and the rate of urbanization features the upwards trend exacerbating the problem of urban population vulnerability. Hungary follows the same trend as the rest of the World, its urban population constitutes 69.5 % of all country s population, and this figure keeps on growing at the pace of 3-5% per year. The present case study analyses vulnerability of two Hungarian municipalities, e.g. in the city of Veszprém and the 13 th District of Budapest. It examines the municipalities urban systems under adverse impacts of climate change with special focus on adaptive capacities of public health sector. The case study is an integral part of research under the Thematic Center 3: Urban Adaptation and Health of the OrientGate project. The special emphasis was made on research on climate adaptation of the public health sector in the urban environment. Also such urban systems as electricity and gas transmission, drinking water provision, rain water drainage, sewage, transportation, and parks and green areas were analyzed. Urban systems vulnerability analysis was followed by discussion on the potential solutions on how to increase climate resilience in the mentioned municipalities. The case study is a joint effort of a number of research works completed for this study, climate projections obtained through running two models, research field trips, questionnaires and analysis of the questionnaires outcomes, and public participation through stakeholder consultations as well as cooperation with the representatives of the municipalities. The results of the case study were presented to the international climate community at an international workshop Adaptation to Climate Change: Nexus between Urban Areas and Health Sector hold on November 2014 which, examined the international experience in urban adaptation. 3

5 Chapter 1: General information on the case study 1.1 Objectives of the study and description of research area The case study has a goal to assess vulnerability to climate change in two Hungarian municipalities 13 th District of Budapest and city of Veszprém. The study also aims to analyze biophysical, social and economic vulnerability of urban systems in these municipalities. One specific goal is to demonstrate the applicability of adaptation measures and policies in the various administrative and governance contexts. Another goal focuses on the integration of adaptation polices and measures in existing and future long-term development plans. Good practices and lessons learnt gathered from climate change adaptation experience worldwide is carefully examined, and a list of feasible adaptation measures for the main urban economic sectors and/or ecosystems is compiled and offered to stakeholders for consideration. The 13 th District of Budapest is one of the most intensively developing areas in the Hungarian capital, located on the flat northern Pest side alongside the river Danube. Despite the small size of area (13.44 km 2 ), the population of the district is relatively high in numbers (119,000 people), and intensively growing at the rate of 4% per year. The district is a densely built residential, business and commercial area, with constantly increasing volume of traffic and sadly decreasing rate of green spots per capita. The most challenging characteristic of the district in terms of adaptation planning is the fact that the range of feasible adaptation measures is limited by the existing governance system. Veszprém is a medium-sized city (126,90 km²) situated in the western part of Hungary, about 110 km from Budapest and 15 km north of Lake Balaton, in a hilly area. Population of the city consists of 64,339 people according to 2011 year census. Veszprém already has a strong GHG mitigation policy which is included in the Energy Strategy of Veszprém. The main challenge facing adaptation decision makers in this case is the coherent integration of adaptation considerations into already existing climate policies. 4

6 1.2 Research conducted towards completion of the case study and knowledge base Several separate research works have been carried out generating the outcomes towards final completion of the case study itself. All the reports mentioned below can be found in the Annexes. Research work conducted by the Hungarian Meteorological Service identified exposure induced by future climate through running regional climate models (RCMs) e.g. ALADIN-Climate and REMO models. As the basis A1B climate scenario developed under 4 th AR of IPCC was used. The RCMs run for the case study area are operating using a resolution of 10km x 10 km. Report Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Measures in the Public Health sector in the city of Veszprém and Budapest s XIII District by Anna Páldy, M.D., Ph.D. The author focused her research on the adaptive capacities of such social institutions located in two municipalities as hospitals, kinder gardens, and residents for senior citizens against the heat waves. Dr Páldy analysed information about technical capacities of social institutions to cope with extreme heat (type of walls, type of window glazing, presence of air conditioners, especially in the hospital wards, presence of shadings on the outer side of the windows) and administrative capacities (presence of a Heat Wave Plan/Protocol, presence of special light menus during the days with extremely high temperature; presence of information campaigns). The author put her work in the context of historic research in Hungary on functional relationship between outdoor temperature and extra mortality during warm seasons. Based on these data, both quantitative and qualitative, she draws conclusions about current vulnerability of public health sector in the two municipalities against both present and future heat wave threat as adaptation challenge. Dr Páldy also gave qualitative analysis of vulnerability of population of the 13 th District of Budapest based on its exposure to the risk factors, e.g. percentage of ageing population over 65 years, level of income, percentage of dwellings not equipped by sanitation facilities, distribution of chronical diseases, and literacy. To collect information about adaptive capacities of social institutions Dr Páldy has prepared a questionnaire. A team of young researchers from GHG Analytics Kft. distributed this questionnaire among the managers of the institutions and followed up the questionnaires with personal interviews ensuring quality control of collected data. 5

7 The study demonstrated that the health sector in Hungary is among the most affected by the impacts of climate change. Increasing numbers of elderly people, the large proportion of poorly insulated residential buildings constructed between 1960 and 1990, a low level of awareness, and a lack of adaptive capacities all contribute to the vulnerability of both the population and health system. The study considers a number of options for utilising all available adaptive capacities, creating extra capacities, and boosting public health resilience. Report Scoping Study on Urban Planning in the Context of Adaptation to the Impacts of Climate Change carried out by ICCI Ltd examined urban systems vulnerability to the impacts of climate change. This includes public health, energy production, energy transmission, energy consumption, transportation, drinking water supply, technical water supply, sewage, housing sector, recreational areas, parks, historical monuments, urban agriculture, and urban biodiversity. Urban environment serves as a multiplier of the climate change impacts on a number of urban economic sectors and ecosystems. During the case study this classification served as a basis for the first rounds of stakeholder consultations when the stakeholders prioritized both urban systems most crucial to their respective municipality and adaptation challenges which have affected in the past/can affect in future their urban systems. Also the ICCI Ltd researchers made an overview of adaptation good practices around the World, drawing a conclusion that integrated approach to urban adaptation based on advanced urban planning can be the only efficient one. Examples of effective urban adaptation based on the integrated approach were presented to the stakeholders during the second round of stakeholder consultation. The organizers of the consultations had a goal to encourage the municipal authorities to adopt the same approach in their strategic decisions. Detailed data gathering on the vulnerability of the urban systems of both municipalities selected by the stakeholders have been carried out by the researchers of ICI Interaktiv Zrt and GHG Analytics Kft. This research resulted in two reports Analysis of Urban Systems of Budapest s District XIII and Assessing the Climate Vulnerability of Vital Urban Systems in Veszprém. The rest of research work, e.g. on the legal framework for adaptation process in Hungary, on financial sources for adaptation, and organization of public participation have been conducted by the project team of the REC. 6

8 1.3. Scientific knowledge available on the topic Scientific knowledge available on the topic includes: The results of observations on climate essential variables since 1961; Statistical data on daily death rates since mid-xx century in Hungary; Statistical data on socio-economic factors across Budapest (example: unemployment level, illiteracy rate; distribution of chronical diseases, etc.): Statistical data on the adaptive capacities of the hospitals, kinder gardens, and senior care centres (so-called, retirement houses) in the city of Veszprém and 13 th District of Budapest. These data were collected in the course of the case studies; Projections of climate essential variables derived from running of the two regional climate highresolution models in Hungary. These data were acquired by the Hungarian Meteorological Service for the case studies; Experts opinions collected through the stakeholder consultations; Experts opinions collected through the interviews with the representatives of the urban systems identified by the stakeholders as the priority areas. The methodology of vulnerability assessment of the annualized urban systems was devised on the basis of the 4 th IPCC Assessment Report definition of Vulnerability as a function of Exposure, Sensitivity, and Adaptive Capacities. The 4 th IPCC AR was chosen since at the time it was the most updated version of the IPCC continuous work. To prioritize the urban systems which are the most important for the smooth functioning of the settlements the participatory approach has been adopted. The stakeholders identified: Prioritization of the urban systems; Current vulnerability of the systems against so-called adaptation challenges, e.g. climate change related hazards, such as heat waves, urban droughts, increased temperature variability, river floods, flash rain floods, icing conditions due to increased climate variability, and strong winds. This was based on the personal observations of the experts and stakeholders involved; 7

9 Future vulnerability of the same systems against the projected changes of the essential climate variables. This was based on the experts points of view on both projections and perception of climate dynamics in their respective regions over the past years. The overall vulnerability of two municipalities is described in qualitative terms. At the same time, the basis for qualitative assessment constitute figures and statistical data Objectives of the Thematic Centre 3: Urban Adaptation and Health The case study was carried out under the Thematic Center 3: Urban Adaptation and Health of the OrientGate project. Its main objective is to enhance the understanding and knowledge of the staff of municipalities on climate change adaptation aspects, acquaint municipal climate stakeholders with the global good practices in urban adaptation, encourage them to assess the vulnerabilities of their urban systems against current and future (projected) climate conditions, and to encourage urban settlements in the South East European Region to assess the feasibility of implementing adaptation policies and measures already developed for use on a larger scale (regional, national and ecosystem level). Another important objective of the Thematic Center is to enhance exchange of good practices in urban adaptation. An overview of the global urban adaptation experience and lessons learnt was done under the OrientGate project towards completion of the case studies. The results of this overview were disseminated among the stakeholders and discussed with them. On the other hand, the good adaptation practices and measures applicable in the two pilot municipalities are also highlighted, and can be replicated in the other settlements of South-East Europe. Chapter 2: Legal framework for climate adaptation process in Hungary This chapter presents the key strategic documents in Hungary that address adaptation to climate change. In their current reduction these documents do not address directly a problem of adaptation on the municipal kevel. Still they give guidance and framework for the municipal adaptation decision makers. The most important strategic document for climate change adaptation (and mitigation) in Hungary is the National Climate Change Strategy (NCCS) ( ). The strategy was prepared in the framework for 8

10 the implementation of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and based on the 2007 Climate Change Act. The document), approved by the Hungarian Parliament in 2008, contains extensive chapters both on mitigation and adaptation, however objectives and main strategic directions of actions for the period of in Hungary were identified only for mitigation. The adaptation part is less focused and combined with mitigation issues. The strategy deals with the adaptation issue mostly on a theoretical level, offers an introduction to the general impacts of climate change in Hungary, and lists priorities and tasks in the following areas of climate adaptation: nature conservation, natural flora and fauna, human health, water management, agriculture and forestry, regional development, regional planning, settlement development, settlement planning and built environment 1 Concerning the adaptation to climate change the strategy underlines the importance of ecosystem services. A subchapter deals with the issue of the impact of climate change on public health. It says that the extreme weather conditions (heat waves, higher average temperature, UVB radiation etc.) will negatively influence the health of the residents in the settlements more often and more intensive in the near future (mortality rate because of heat waves, more viruses, chronic diseases etc.). The first revision of the NCCS mandated by the Climate Change Act 2007 took place and completed in 2013 waiting for approval by the Hungarian Parliament. The revised version extended the timeframe of the strategy to 2030 with a 2050 outlook. It treats mitigation and adaptation as of equal importance. The two parts, namely National Roadmap for De-carbonization and the National Adaptation Strategy (NAS) had been drafted providing with proper inter-linkage and coherence. The third important pillar of the revised strategy is related to education and awareness raising. The NAS will provide further information on climate change science, observations and sectoral impact assessments. It will be based on a robust metadata base, called the National Adaptation Geographical Information System (NAGIS), currently in progress. This system will be the first comprehensive, countrywide tool to provide high-resolution results of quantified expected trends and the associated uncertainty of local and regional exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity for different hazards. It will also to provide input data for spatial and sectoral vulnerability studies

11 The Third National Environmental Action Programme was adopted by the Parliament in 2009 for the period of and it includes a thematic (sub)programme dedicated to the problems and tasks related to climate change. It specifically deals with both mitigation and adaptation issues. The Fourth National Environmental Action Programme has been developed by the end of 2013 and is waiting for the adoption by/approval of the Parliament. The National Development and Spatial Development Concept contains the main national development priorities for Hungary until It recognizes that there is a huge difference among the different regions concerning the adaptive capacity and vulnerability due to the territorial differentiation of the effect of climate change. In those regions where the economic system depends more on climate conditions (e.g. agriculture, tourism) there is a need to plan with more risks and develop more and diverse adaptation measures. The document also says that the impact of climate change can increase the economic, social and lifestyle differences among the different areas. The concept formulates the objective to create climate safety in the settlements and public buildings, and to develop adaptation measures to climate change, primary in the urban areas. Main regulations of buildings are particularly covered in OTÉK for the whole country, but considered adaptation strategies are still missing. However environmental awareness appears in many territorial development strategies both at national and spatial level, the real measures concerning climate change adaptation in the development strategies are still missing at spatial level at this moment. There are only a few cities that have e.g. Energy Strategy or Environmental Program at spatial level but the adaptation measures have not been considered or developed yet. Chapter 3: Vulnerability Assessment in Veszprém and 13 th District of Budapest The focus of the case study is on conducting vulnerability assessment of the crucial urban systems of both municipalities, including an analyses of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. 10

12 The case study assessed current and future vulnerability of the present urban systems of both municipalities against future exposure, e.g. projected climate conditions. Special attention is paid on drawing conclusion, summarizing lessons learned and making suggestions for wider use of results of the pilot studies for authorities and policy makers at regional, national and international level Climate projections for the studied area (exposure) Exposure induced by future climate was identified by running regional climate models (RCMs) using the A1B climate scenario developed under 4 th AR of IPCC. The regional climate models, e.g. ALADIN-Climate and REMO models, run by the Hungarian Meteorological Service for the pilot areas are operating using a resolution of 10km x 10 km providing data on future climate (temperature and precipitation) with the required details for the whole area of Hungary and having local relevance. In the framework of the present study, two future periods were examined in detail: and , with reference of The investigation of the results of two RCMs is necessary to quantify the projection uncertainties. The simulations of the two models are covering the Carpathian Basin with km horizontal resolution. For describing the future anthropogenic activity, the medium A1B scenario was used. The parameters selected for the vulnerability study are as follows for both target municipalities and future periods: Change of daily mean temperature (in o C/30 years, averaged for 30-year periods) in every grid point; Linear trend coefficients of monthly mean temperature (in o C/30 years) in every gridpoint within the actual future periods; Change of daily precipitation amount (in mm/day, averaged for 30-year periods) in every grid point; Linear trend coefficients of seasonal mean precipitation (in percentage/30 years) in every grid point within the actual future periods. 11

13 Investigating figures of daily mean 2-meter temperature change for Budapest the two models project warming for almost the whole year both in the near- and far-future periods. Regarding daily mean 2-meter temperature changes, results obtained for Veszprém County and Budapest are almost identical due to their small (100 km) distance and similar altitude in the models. Therefore the conclusions related to Budapest are also valid for Veszprém County as well. Monthly mean 2-meter temperature trends indicate warming in most months within , especially in winter and summer. Regarding precipitation in Budapest, the daily mean changes are showing large day-to-day fluctuations; therefore, it is hard to find any significant conclusions. The range of the daily changes covers the interval of -3 3 mm/day for , with smaller changes in winter, larger ones in summer and autumn. Similarly to Budapest, the daily mean precipitation changes for indicate large variability for Veszprém, as well. The range of the daily changes covers the interval of -4 4 mm/day for, with smaller changes in winter, larger ones in summer and autumn. Large uncertainty can be concluded between the RCMs in September: one of them provides the greatest increase, while the other one provides the largest decrease throughout the year. In the 21st century both in Budapest and Veszprém county temperature increase is expected throughout the year, especially in summer. This does not mean year-by-year warming, cooler periods can occur, as negative monthly intra-decadal trends show it. Though, daily changes should be handled with care since large day-by-day variability is possible, changes for are more robust and clear for both Veszprém and Budapest than for the Seasonal precipitation trends are similar for the nearfuture period for Veszprém and Budapest, but smaller trend values are most likely for Budapest for the far-future period. While the model results are clear only in the slight increasing spring trend for , they are in a good agreement in spring summer decreasing and autumn increasing trend. As it could be seen for the region of Budapest, the 10 and 25 km spatial resolutions are not sufficient for the detailed investigations. Even the 10 km resolution does not allow to correctly describe the surface characteristics and processes, especially the urban processes. Therefore, these results provide only limited opportunity to make hints for the vulnerability of the urbanized regions. In the future, finer (km-) scale simulations are needed for further investigations and making more sophisticated conclusions Methodology 12

14 Sensitivity of the urban systems in two municipalities to the impacts of climate is characterized by identified specific indicators, which could be quantatively described with assistance of statistical parameters. The adaptive capacities are analyzed through a survey and personal interviews with responsible municipal officials and business managers of the urban systems under investigation. The urban system vulnerability assessment s methodology follows a framework 2 which has various components being a logical interconnection among them. The baseline when assessing the vulnerability of a given urban system is to identify the type of natural hazards it is exposed to the most. As a second step, the sensitivity of the urban system has to be mapped from a social, physical/structural and economic point of view. The sensitivity of the system can be decreased introducing adaptation solutions both from a technical, structural (hard) and regulatory, organization (soft) side. The impact assessment looks at the consequences of the identified climate hazard taking into the urban system s level of sensitivity and its capacity to adapt. The vulnerability assessment combines all of the components of the logical framework and puts it into the context of the analyzed pilot areas. EXPOSURE (CLIMATE STIMULUS) SENSITIVITY IMPACT WHERE WHAT ADAPTIVE CAPACITY WHO VULNERABILITY 2 Urban Regions: Vulnerabilities, Vulnerability Assessments by Indicators and Adaptation Options for Climate Change Impacts, ETC/ACC Technical Paper 2010/12 December

15 Graph 1: Scheme of Vulnerability Assessment Methodology of the Case Studies 3.3. Stakeholder involvement and needs assessment One of the important aspects of Thematic Center 3 is to develop the pilot study in close cooperation with the climate stakeholders in both municipalities. The involvement of the relevant stakeholders Veszprém and 13 th District of Budapest in the process is essential for enhancing their understanding of the global and local adaptation challenges related to climate change and necessary local measures to reduce the impacts. The project staff involved in the case study activities has built up good relationship with both municipalities which were actively participating in the regular consultations related to the pilot study development. The key contact persons from the two municipalities serve as a liaison between the REC project team and the wider stakeholder communities such as businesses, bodies governing the urban systems, civil organizations working in the fields of public health, social care, daycare, the environment and planning departments within the two municipalities. Municipalities and stakeholders were involved to the project activities in several ways: Surveys for identifying level of adaptation both from health point of view and other urban systems points of view. The municipalities contributed substantially to the data collection process by sending official letters to heads of public institutions and urban system governing bodies which filled in questionnaires with specific data and went through the interviews. The data collected was used in several ways: Assessing the adaptive capacities of the health care system of the municipalities. Three types of the public institutions (hospitals, kinder gardens, and residents for senior citizens) adaptive capacities against the heat waves were examined; Assessing the vulnerability of the present urban systems of the municipalities against current and projected climate conditions which can represent the threats to the safety margins of the urban systems. 14

16 Stakeholder consultations: three separate events were held in each settlement in the beginning and in the end of the case studies. During the first round of stakeholder consultations (on 29 August 2013 and 20 October 2013 respectively). Discussions were focusing on the following topics: - Personal impressions whether climate change is really happening - Which elements of the urban system seem to be most affected by climate change? What is most vulnerable? - Are the pillars of the urban system is prepared for coping with problems caused by climate change? Is the municipality prepared for guiding the process? - Are public people aware of climate change and its potential impacts? - What are the gaps and need from public point of view? Based on the discussion it was concluded that knowledge and awareness among public is quite limited on climate change, more information and awareness raising would be needed. From governance point of view there are much to do at municipal level including more detailed information on impacts and vulnerability, potential measures to reduce the harmful effects of climate change and assistance is needed to elaborate proper adaptation strategy at municipal level. During the second round of the stakeholder consultations (23 May 2014 in Veszprém and 17 September 2014 in 13 th District of Budapest) the results of the case studies were discussed. The participants were informed about the hot spots of the crucial urban systems they have selected during the previous round of consultations. The good practices in urban adaptation were presented to the participants as well as the legal framework of the adaptation process in Hungary. The discussion concentrated on what types of adaptation measures are feasible in Hungary from legal, administrative, and financial points of view Results from the Vulnerability Assessment of 13 th District of Budapest Adaptation problems and challenges have been identified in the 13 th District of Budapest through desk research of literature and significant number of interviews with the municipal officials and representatives of the companies to which some services have been outsourced. These stakeholders shared voluntarily their environmental concerns, not only on climate and adaptation buy also on other environmental topics. It became clear that a climate impacts can aggravate any of the mentioned problems, and any adaptation 15

17 measure implemented has huge potential for co-benefits solving not only the climate but also social, economic, environmental, and demographic problems. The experts selected among the major adaptation challenges faced by the district authorities and residents the following: extreme high temperatures, river floods on the river Danube and a small creek Rakos flowing into the Danube, excessive precipitation both in cold and warm seasons, and strong winds. According to the experts opinion, the listed adaptation challenges affect to the biggest extend the following sectors: Electricity transmission: interrupted electricity supply can start a chain reaction of unpredictable consequences. Modern civilization is very much dependent on stable electricity supply. The electricity transmission systems are vulnerable to high temperatures, strong winds and hurricanes, and excessive precipitation in the cold seasons (snow), Parks, green squares, and other green spots of n the 13 th District. The 13 th District area is km 2. It features 3 km 2 of parks and green spots. The famous Margaret Island, one of the major touristic sightseeing spots and important recreational area of the whole Budapest, is under the governance of 13 th District. Heat waves combined with urban droughts, floods, strong winds and hurricanes adversely affect biodiversity of the green spots and significantly reduce a number of ecosystem services the green spots provide for the urban residents. Within the case study special attention has been focused on public health and adaptation capacities in the facilities for the young children, senior citizens, and people with health problems, e.g. kindergartens, residences of seniors, and hospitals. There are 16 social care institutions on the territory of the district. As the analysis shows the majority of the facilities are not prepared not only for the future climate conditions but also for the current climate variability. The current vulnerability of the mentioned groups is assessed as very high. Among the barriers on the way of adaptation measures implementations the main one is the discrepancy between vulnerability and decision taking power. The most vulnerable groups usually do not possess the decision making power. Another barrier is the lack of communication between the vulnerable groups and the decision makers and takers. One more barrier is the governance. Usually at the district level the 16

18 feasible adaptation options are the soft options. For more substantial hard adaptation measures the district stakeholders have to wait the actions on the city level, or even on the national level. Several other sectors vital for the day-to-day functioning of the 13 th District have been listed by the experts as vulnerable to the impacts of climate change: Transport: transportation in the 13 th District is both a vulnerable sector and sector exacerbating current adaptation problems. The District roads are altogether 170 km long. They are covered with asphalt. During the heat waves asphalt absorbs heat, and releases it during night time. As a result the District suffers so called tropical night harming human health because of inability to cool down during the night time. On the other hand the sector is vulnerable to heat ways (interruption of tram services because of rail buckling and wire sagging), climate variability destroying the asphalt coverage of the District, and floods destroying the underground pedestrian passages. Interestingly enough, the XIII District takes part in the renovation of the tram line number 1 in cooperation with the whole city. This renovation is supposed to make the tram line more heat resistant. Waste management, sewage system, water supply: 13 th District possesses the well-established selective waste collection system, sewage system, and system of water supply to the citizens. The District also has a bubble of underground water placed beneath the surface. While sewage system, waste collection system, and centralized supply of drinking water are climate resilient, and feature thorough protection against impacts of climate change both observed and predicted ones, the ground waters can threatened by such hazards as river floods and excessive precipitation (rain and snow). Another threat to the underground water reserves can be overexploitation during urban droughts. Currently these reserves are used for watering the green spots of the District when natural precipitation is not sufficient. Spatial planning; Social Sector: Population of the 13 th District grows rapidly due to the inflow of new residents. It includes major vulnerable groups, e.g. young children, senior citizens, homeless people, and also a number of migrants from the other countries. These groups are vulnerable to extreme temperatures, urban droughts, extreme precipitation, and strong winds. The latter group being exposed to all the adaptation challenges might not benefit to the fullest extent from the 17

19 adaptation measures such as early warning systems and information campaigns because of their poor knowledge of national language. One more vulnerable group is a group of people with health issues. All mentioned adaptation challenges can either worsen their health conditions or hinder the recovery process; Air quality. Vulnerability Assessment: current vulnerability of 13 th District of Budapest can be assessed as medium Several sectors such as waste management, water management, sewage management are currently resilient to the adverse impacts of climate change. The other sectors such as public health, social sector, transportation, management of parks and green spots, and electricity supply are highly vulnerable. The observed climate impacts in the form of both accumulated effects and extreme events frequently surpass the safety margins of the systems. Current vulnerability against the future climate impacts as described above can be even assessed as high. Simultaneously, the 13 th District authorities, experts, and advanced representatives of the local community are aware of the lack of resilience of the urban systems vital for the district. They already take steps towards improving the adaptive capacities. Several adaptation activities take form of acquiring compliance with the national regulations (example: spatial planning legislation on the ventilation corridors; building regulations on standards of newly built houses). Renovation of the rail tracks of the tram N 1 can also be considered to a certain extent as an adaptation measure. This is a big project, and several Budapest districts benefits from it. On the district level a number of soft and/or low-cost adaptation options are carried out including information campaigns, provision of information (example: about upcoming weather conditions), and maintenance of the green spots and parks of the District. Further recommendations are in the Section 5 of the present Thematic Center Report Results from the Vulnerability Assessment of Veszprém Vulnerability assessment in Veszprém Municipality was carried out in two directions. Under the first direction vulnerability assessment addressed the utility sectors and urban systems of the city, e.g. electricity and gas supply, drinking water supply, storm drainage, and sewage. In other words, at the first stage the vulnerability of urban systems providing framework for healthy and quality living has been assessed. Under the second direction economic and social vulnerability of the city was assessed. 18

20 Among the adaptation challenges the experts have chosen: extreme temperature events, extreme precipitation events (rain and snow), icing, floods on the creek Sed, and strong winds. As in the 13 th District of Budapest, special attention has been paid for the vulnerability of public health sector. From demographic point of view, almost 30% of Veszprém population belong to the age vulnerable groups young children and senior citizens. There are 11 social institutions including hospitals, kinder gardens, and residences for seniors, day cares, etc. As the interviews with utilities experts revealed, Veszprém urban utility systems feature high resilience against current impacts of climate change. The experts indicated that electricity supply system is more vulnerable than others since it operates under open sky and is exposed more to the climate hazards. The experts were positive that such adaptation challenges as extreme temperatures, icing, thunderstorms resulting in fallen trees cannot presently interrupt electricity or gas supply for more than 3 hours. The time period of 3 hours is pronounced even taking into consideration the labor code stipulations prohibiting for the outdoor workers to work for 1 hour in a row under harsh temperature conditions without taking substantial breaks. Vulnerability under future climate might increase though the utility experts assured that regular maintenance and technological upgrades will allow to cope even with the future climate stress. The most vulnerable sector in Veszprém is tourism. Veszprém is an old and beautiful city featuring rich cultural, and especially architectural, heritage. It is also famous for its gardens and cloisters, for which Veszprém was even rewarded with a Climate Star of Hungary. Extreme weather events, their increasing frequency negatively affect these valuable sites. Moreover, the weather extremes prevent people to take trips to Veszprém and its vicinities. More than 10,000 households are employed or self-employed in the services related to tourism. The vulnerability if Veszprém can be assessed as Medium though it might be misleading. One can say that Veszprém s vulnerability in terms of necessary utilities provision is low. At the same time, economic and social vulnerability of the city is high because of the tourist sector playing an important role in Veszprém s economic life Financing Adaptation Measures 19

21 Climate change adaptation is included in the proposals for all relevant EU finance programmes for , including the European Structural and Investment funds 3, Horizon 2020, that will promote research and development on climate change adaptation, the LIFE instrument which finances a wide range of projects related to environment and climate mitigation and adaptation, or the EU Solidarity Fund for natural disasters. With regards to Hungary the draft Multi-annual Financial Framework (MFF) includes a proposal for increasing climate-related expenditure 4 to at least 20 % of the EU budget. It is strategically important for such investment to be climate-resilient. Financing of adaptation measures in Hungary is strongly determined by the strategic framework for adaptation actions, which mainly aims to comply with international and European requirements based on the 2007 Climate Change Act. A large part of the financing of the actions within the National Climate Change Strategy ( ) has been provided through European funding, e.g. from the Structural Funds. Funding for local level adaptation actions mostly comes from EU funds and the national level sources. The Hungarian Government set up financial incentives to support the adaptation measures envisaged in the National Climate Change Strategy (NCCS). Within the New Széchenyi Plan (NSRF ) sources were allocated to climate adaptation actions mainly in the framework of the Environment and Energy Operational Program (KEOP). For the agriculture and forestry sector the main funding was provided by the New Hungary Rural Development Programme (NHRDP). With regards to insurance the currently available private funding that supports adaptation actions is focused on the provision of insurance services, in different sectors. Insurance can be a valuable tool for adaptation in three main ways: helping to manage climate change risks; providing incentives for risk prevention; and providing information on risk. The insurance sector is arguably the most advanced in evaluating risks and opportunities. Major adaptation initiatives in the insurance sector, to date, have focused around building institutional networks that address the common risks to the industry through 3 The Cohesion Fund, the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF), the European Social Fund (ESF), the European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development (EAFRD) and the European Maritime and Fisheries Fund (EMFF) 4 referring to both climate change mitigation and adaptation 20

22 collaboration. It is likely that the insurance sector leads in this area due to its vulnerability, but also because of its historical experience in risk management and climate-related risks. Operating the agricultural risk and crisis management system in Hungary has always been characterized by its division between the state (and its authorities) and insurance companies whose proprietary structure and the surrounding market competition have changed in the course of time. The state has always had a significant role in the organization and financing the protection against agricultural crises caused by both natural disasters and economic turmoil. 5 The 2012 act on the risk management of weather and other natural hazards affecting agricultural production created new conditions for agricultural risk management system. The act expanded the risk management community to all micro, small and medium enterprises. The scope of eligible damages was expanded to drought, inland inundation, hail, spring and winter frost, storm, rainstorm, and flood (with specific case approval of European Commission) Integrating pilot study results in policies The final study results have been disseminated among the stakeholders in both municipalities through the series of stakeholder consultations with the elements of trainings. The consultations emphasized that the methodological approach adopted in the case study can become a useful tool in future. Vulnerability assessment in the case study is based on the current available information. In future any components of vulnerability can change. The new bordering conditions (example: new scientific evidence will be collected: climate modeling in the urban areas will become more accurate) can change exposure component. New adaptive capacities can be introduced increasing the overall climate resilience of the systems. Also sensitivity of the urban systems might change due to either effective renovation or further deterioration. At any point of time the climate adaptation stakeholders in both municipality can re-assess vulnerability of the urban systems. The results can be used for internal purposes (example: assessment of economic and social vulnerability with further identification of hot-spots) or external purposes (example: application for adaptation related funding). This methodology also provides opportunities to find

23 synergies between climate and other environment concerns, or even non-environmental concerns of the stakeholders. The intermediate results of the case study raised awareness on adaptation to climate change. Beforehand the municipalities were mostly aware about mitigation through energy efficiency. The case study under ORIENTGATE introduced new challenges to the stakeholders. They become aware that the impacts of climate change have been observed in their own country and threaten the wellbeing of their fellow citizens. Simultaneously, adaptation measures can be a powerful vehicle to introduce new technologies, safeguard and even create new employment, and bring investment into the municipality. For instance, Veszprém municipality has engaged into a new climate project, e.g. IMPRESSIONS, looking for effective synergies between adaptation and mitigation under extreme climate scenarios. Chapter 4: Conclusions and lessons learned 4.1. Key constraints and limiting factors with regards to adaptation to climate change in urban areas and health Adaptation process on the sphere of public health in the urban areas faces the barriers common for any sector: Psychology of denial: some decision makers and takers deny the incident of climate change attributing the evident impacts to normal climate variability. Though irrational, this type of perception of climate change can be met at non-negligible number of occasions; Lack of political will: the expenses associated with environmental issues and/or public health are classified as social expenditures. Unfortunately, the common practice is that these expenditures are not on the top of the agenda; Lack of information on adaptation challenges regarding public health: the stakeholders either might not be aware about a challenge, or underestimate its frequency and severity (example: heat wave in Europe in 2003). To the same point one can attribute lack of methodologies of calculations of extra morbidity and mortality caused by an adaptation challenge; Lack of information on good practices and low-cost no-regret adaptation measures. 22

24 Lack of financial resources as well as lack of information about the available financial opportunities; Low level of cooperation within communities: individuals tend to choose to maximize their own utility rather than public utility. Example: destroying green and blue areas for parking lots. In the area of public health there is a specific barrier on the way towards successful adaptation, e.g. selfperception of individual s own vulnerability. This factor has been identified when assessing the vulnerability of the senior citizens in the Scandinavian countries under the CARAVAN project. If an individual tends to underestimate its own vulnerability due to a number of reasons, she wouldn t undertake adaptation actions. Within vulnerable groups such as senior citizens, people with health problems, outdoor workers this phenomenon can become a tendency with obvious sad consequences. Example: a senior citizen disregards an early warning about slippery conditions occurring because of climate variability, falls on the ground, and stays without help for hours during night time. Example: an outdoor worker disregards the labor code requirements not to exceed 1 hour under the extreme heat conditions. In both examples the interviewed patients answered that they consider themselves very resilient and not vulnerable Future challenges and opportunities with regards to adaptation to climate change in urban areas and health Climate change is unequivocal, and the impacts of climate change on human health will necessarily grow stringer. The main challenge in the health sector is to raise stakeholders awareness about the expected impacts of various adaptation challenges on human health. The effects might have direct effect (example: heat waves cause extra morbidity) and indirect (example: increased climate variability cause slippery conditions more frequently, as a results the number of injures increases). The other challenge is to draw stakeholders attention to the fact that main focus should be on preventive adaptation measures. The economic, social, human costs of preventive adaptation are always lower than those of reactive adaptation. Special emphasis should be put on the fact that unsophisticated low cost preventive adaptation measures can be very efficient. Example: information campaign in London during the heat waves calling for drinking sufficient amount of water. 23

25 When carrying out adaptation in the health sector mal-adaptation or inefficient adaptation should be avoided. Example; extensive use of air-conditioning during the heat season, adaptation measures should concentrate on natural ways of cooling Possible solutions to these challenges and areas for further improvements in terms of raising the adaptive capacity urban areas and health The study helped to identify the most vulnerable urban systems in the two municipalities and a number of appropriate adaptation options for small and medium-sized cities were suggested. These can serve as a starting point for shaping a local adaptation strategy either at municipality level or for an individual sector. Vulnerability assessments and the identification of potential measures can also connect climate adaptation aspects with short- and long-term urban planning. Suggested climate adaptation measures for urban areas include: Introduction of innovative climate-resilient spatial planning; Expansion of green areas; the planting of drought-resistance plants; Adoption of new construction codes that minimize demand for air conditioning and promote the use of natural cooling for existing buildings; Upgrading of sewerage and drainage systems; Improved sealing of urban surfaces to cope with extreme precipitation. The study recommends a number of soft measures such as: Legal framework stipulating urban authorities, especially, in the metropolitan areas, to prepare and implement public health adaptation strategy taking into view current and forecasted adaptation challenges; Encouragement of authorities, businesses, project implementers to study the accumulated experience of health adaptation (example: web platform weadapt): Information campaigns for local residents and general climate awareness raising; Regular dissemination of information on extreme weather events and advices on the most efficient behavior; 24

26 Support for instruments and methodologies translating adverse effects of climate change on public health into figures; Development of medical statistics; Synergies between adaptation to climate change and other environmental health issues (example: air pollution). Chapter 5: Recommendations This chapter includes key messages and recommendations for authorities and policy makers at EU, national and local level based on the results from the pilot study. On strategic planning for climate change adaptation To address the above mentioned challenges, cities and municipalities need to develop effective, locally driven adaptation programmatic documents such as adaptation strategies or at least the lists of potential adaptation measures. This in its turn requires vulnerability assessment and the selection of effective adaptation measures; Practice shows that spatial and urban planning usually do not meet the challenges of the harmonization of different ecosystem services with other policy measures related to, for example, urban development, transport, recreation and climate change adaptation. There is a need to develop existing planning practices and analyse the mutual interferences of the different ecosystem services which can contribute to adapt to climate change effects, and the socioeconomic approaches of the different urban areas; Staff in municipalities is often insufficiently informed about the opportunities to invest in adaptation measures, and is poorly trained or unable to partner with other institutions or associations. Therefore there is a need for strengthening the institutional and technical capacity for designing adaptation related measures and managing and complex project implementation. Considering that in a situation of economic crisis the employment nearly always takes priority over climate change there is a need to highlight the potential of adaptation measures to provide opportunities for economic growth and job creation. Making this a case at municipal level is especially relevant. 25

27 On financing adaptation measures Municipalities need to dedicate more resources on assessment of risks and vulnerabilities in their territories and start planning for adaptation actions. External funding can be used to carry out strategic planning for climate change, particularly when research and assessment is required as a basis for decision making. For example, the LIFE climate sub-programme is expected to dedicate funds for this. Other EU funds, including the Cohesion Policy and rural development programmes also offer potential support for regional and local authorities to support their efforts on strategic planning and planning support work on climate change. This needs to be taken into account in the programming of EU funds; Aligning and mainstreaming activities on municipal level into national development or sector plans can help to identify and procure funding for adaptation measures, especially through national funds; Although efforts to improve strategic planning for adaptation need to continue in many municipalities, it is also important to dedicate financing resources on implementation. Carrying out demonstration projects and especially such with innovative character can stimulate locally driven, complex projects in addition to the conventional top-down projects; Both public and private financing measures are important for achieving climate-related objectives. However, the application of the first seems more widespread than the latter and municipalities should encourage private sector to invest in adaptation-related measures or initiate public-private schemes. To encourage private investors and foster their greater responsiveness there is a need to raise awareness about the essence of adaptation and the opportunities that such investments bring. Particular opportunities for private sector involvement exist in the health sector, water management, agriculture, etc. Improvement of infrastructure resilience to climate change is another area with potential for private investments. The last stakeholder meeting in Veszprém served also as a platform for meeting of the local farmers and city authorities. They discussed the possibility of using the local products in the catering of health and social institutions. This measure can be considered as a mitigation as well as adaptation one. Shortening the food supply chains can be considered as a mitigation measure since it reduces significantly the 26

28 carbon emissions from transportation. On the other hand, food supply chains are vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, and local food can be a solution. Also this measure increases the social integration of the local farmers and promotion of health life style 27

29 GLOSSARY Adaptation Adjustment in natural or human systems to a new or changing environment. Adaptation to climate change refers to adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities. Various types of adaptation can be distinguished, including anticipatory and reactive adaptation, private and public adaptation, and autonomous and planned adaptation (IPCC, 2007) Adaptation measure A single action in any of the sectors (infrastructure, finance, legal, etc.) leading to the increased resilience of the natural or human systems against climate change stimuli Adaptation option A group of adaptation measures carried out simultaneously to increase resilience of the natural or human systems. Adaptation situation A set of biophysical, administrative, legal, economic, and social conditions and adaptation challenges framing a situation under which a decision maker has to take a decision on adaptation Climate- ADAPT Information system Climate-ADAPT is one of the key, basic components of European adaptation knowledge. The system is managed by the European Environment Agency (EEA). It is available through 28

30 Hazard The temporal probability that an event of a given intensity involves a certain area during a specific time interval. Hazard includes latent conditions representing a future threat for man and the environment and is generally expressed in terms of annual probability. Impact Attribution The process of establishing the most likely causes for the detected change with some defined level of confidence. Impact Assessment Methodology which projects physical impacts and welfare costs from climate model outputs using impact functions, plus costs and benefits of adaptation options MEDIATION Adaptation Platform Online decision support tool representing in the electronic format the integrated methodology developed under MEDIATION. It assists to specify the tasks that have to be performed to address climate hazards effectively. The MAP is intended to be used by experts i.e. scientists, policy advisors, and practitioners with technical or scientific backgrounds. It features such elements as the Adaptation Pathfinder, Toolbox, and Case Study Navigator. Risk Probability multiplied by consequence; with consequence being an impact such as economic, social or environmental damage / improvement that may result from a natural hazard. Theoretically, the consequence can be both positive and negative. Risk Assessment Comprises understanding, evaluating and interpreting the perceptions of risk and societal tolerances of risk as a basis for informing decisions and actions in the risk management process. 29

31 Vulnerability Vulnerability is the degree to which a system is susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change. Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate change and variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity. (IPCC, 2007)) weadapt Online open space devoted to climate adaptation issues (including synergies with mitigation) that allows practitioners, researchers and policy makers to access credible, high-quality information and to share experiences and lessons learnt. It is available at ( 30

32 List of Indicators Although the two pilot studies aimed at assessing the vulnerability of the urban system as a whole, indicators were suggested only for the health sector as the most crucial area which has been studied in a more detailed way and where statistic data are available. Exposure related indicators are related to future climate stimuli, namely figures in connection with future temperature and precipitation, as follows: Daily mean temperature Projected maximum temperature Hot days: Number of days exceeding daily average temperature of 25C, 27C and 30C Number of hot days in intervals of at least 6 days with 5 C higher then mean calculated for each calendar day (on basis of ) using running 5 day window consecutive hot days: maximum number of consecutive hot days Change(deviation from long term average) in seasonal precipitation amount Frequency of extreme events Sensitivity related indicators related to socio-economic conditions, living conditions, education etc: The ageing index represents the ratio of the elderly (65-x) and children population (0-14 years old). SOCIO-ECONOMIC STATUS INDEX, based on the combination of some selected factors reflecting the settlement-level social situation (settlement level indicators incluse unemployment rate, low educational level, income conditions, number of passenger cars, rate of large families, rate of incomplete families, population density) Living environment/conditions: density of housing (person per room), proportion of dwellings lacking basic amenities, rate of one parent families, rate of one person households, rate of lonely pensioner households, rate of green areas per person, Large families (Parents with three or more children, in proportion of families) Education level: settlement level educational situation, rate of population with basic education, rate of population with secondary education, rate of population with high education Economic conditions: proportion of population of productive age, gross income serving basis for income tax, number of passenger cars per 100 inhabitants Adaptive capacity, as ability to adjust to heat excess, characterized by the physical parameters and conditions of the buildings, awareness and knowledge, communication, measures and healthcare related indicators: Adaptive capacity complex index determined by factors as per capita income, inequalities, availability of healthcare services, access to information. 31

33 Building features (material, insulation, shade, etc.) Adaptive tools (e.g. outer shade, special menu, etc.) Rules, measures (e.g. Heat wave plans, alerts) Per capita income Vulnerability (function of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity) indicators: Excess mortality, number of cases or % (causes of death, mapping the territorial distribution of mortality by settlements by age groups and by sex) Excess number of emergency calls, or number of cases or % Risk related indicators: Health state of population characterized by territorial distribution of major diseases per population (spatial distribution of selected diseases) Indicators are suggested to determine in spatial distribution stressing that impacts and consequently vulnerability to climate change are highly local dependent. Indicators can be used for identifying adaptation measures and policies only in that case, if the indicators are presented in proper geographic distribution. 32

34 List of References ALBERINI A. et al. (2005), Using Expert Judgment to Assess Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change: Evidence from a Conjoint Choice Survey, NOTA DI LAVORO , BACCINI M. et al. (2008), Heat effects on mortality in 15 European cities. Epidemiology, 19: BAKONYKARSZT VÍZ- ÉS CSATORNAMŰ ZRT. (2008) Tájékoztató. Budapest: "ÜVEGHÁZ"-2001 BT. BAKONYKARSZT VÍZ- ÉS CSATORNAMŰ ZRT. (2013a) A város ivóvízellátása [Online] Available at: [Accessed: 21 October 2013] BAKONYKARSZT VÍZ- ÉS CSATORNAMŰ ZRT. (2013b) Assessing the climate vulnerability of water supply and drainage in Veszprém and its surroundings. [Interview]. 28 October 2013 BAKONYKARSZT VÍZ- ÉS CSATORNAMŰ ZRT. (2013c) A víz útja a kutaktól a csapokig. Miért kerül annyiba az ivóvíz? Available at: BÁCSVÍZ Zrt. (2013), Csatornahasználati ismeretek [Online] Available at: [Accessed 29 October] BARTHOLY J. et al. (2010), A Kárpát-medencében re várható regionális éghajlatváltozás RegCM-szimulációk alapján. Klíma21- Füzetek 60, BELLA Sz. (2003) Magyarország egyes tájainak aszályérzékenysége. Budapest: ELTE, Meteorológia Tanszék. BOBVOS J et al. (2006), The effect of short term changes of daily temperature and extreme events on ambulance calls due to accidents in Budapest, Hungary, EPIDEMIOLOGY volume 17 number 6 S427-S427 BOBVOS J. et al. (2009), Impact of Heat on the Urban and Rural Population in Hungary, Epidemiology: November Volume 20 - Issue 6 - p S127. doi: /01.ede f3 BOGNÁR Balázs (2013), A katasztrófavédelem területén kiépített és alkalmazott MARATHON rendszer. Available at: BRACKEN J. (1997), Reducing door-to-needle time: treatment delay versus presentation delay. Clin Cardiol Nov;20(11 Suppl 3):III21-5 Budapest Egészségterv, Eg%C3%A9szs%C3%A9gterv-c%C3%ADm%C5%B1-tanulm%C3%A1ny.aspx 33

35 CAJOTO V. et al.(2005), Health impact of 2003 heat-wave at Hospital de Riviera (A Coruna) [Impacto de la ola de calor de 2003 en el Hospital de Riveira (A Coruna)]. Anales de Medicina Interna 22:15-20 CARVALHO A. et al. (2010), Climate-driven changes in air quality over Europe by the end of the 21st century, with special refernce to Portugal. Environemntal Science & Policy 13, doi:10/1016/j.envsci CEHAPIS: Climate, Environment and Health Action Plan and Information System, WHO/EURO Project co-funded by EC DG Sanco COMMISSION OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES Brussels, , COM(2007) 354 final. GREEN PAPER FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE COUNCIL, THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT,THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMITTEE AND THE COMMITTEE OF THE REGIONS. Adapting to climate change in Europe options for EU action {SEC(2007) 849} CONFALONIERI C. et al. (2007), Human Health (Chapter 8.) In: M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson (Eds.): Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 976 pp COMMISSION OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES Brussels, COM(2009) 147 final. WHITE PAPER Adapting to climate change: Towards a European framework for action COLLEEN E. R. et al.(2009), Mapping Community Determinants of Heat Vulnerability.Environ Health Perspect 117: (2009). doi: /ehp CURTISS B. et al. (2011), Geoenvironmental Diabetology. Journal of Diabetes Science and Technology) Volume 5, Issue 4, July 2011 Diabétesz Atlasz, Nemzetközi Diabétesz Szövetség (IDF), 2006 D'IPPOLITI D. et al. (2010), The impact of heat waves on mortality in 9 European cities: results from the EuroHEAT project. Environ Health. 2010; 9: 37. Published online 2010 July 16. doi: / X DUNÁNTÚLI REGIONÁLIS VÍZMŰ ZRT. (2010) A csapadékvíz szennyvízcsatornába vezetésének következményei. Vízmondó 2010 / IV. [Online] Available at: FÜSSY A. (2008) Folytatódnak a csatornázási munkák Veszprémben, közel 9 millió euróra pályázunk / ülésezett a városfejlesztési bizottság. Vehir.hu. [Online] Available at: 03/folytatodnak-a-csatornazasi-munkak-Veszprémben-kozel-9-millio-eurora-palyazunk-ulesezett-avarosfejlesztesi-bizottsag [Accessed 14 October 2013] 34

36 GREEN TERV KFT. (2011) Esővíz hasznosítás [Online] Available at: [Accessed 29 October 2013] ICI Interactive Zrt. (2014), Vulnerability of Urban Systems of the XIII Districy of Budapest to Climate Change, OrientGate Technical Paper. [Online]. Available at: IPCC Forth Assessment Report, Working Group II Report Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability [Online] Available at: MALATINSKY E. et al. (2014) Assessing the Climate Vulnerability of the Vital Urban System/Services in Vesxprem, OrientGate Technical Paper. [Online]Available at: MAKSIMOVIC C. et al. (2014), Urban Spatial Planning in the Context of Adaptaion to the Impacts of Climate Change. Final Report, OrientGate Technical Paper. [Online] Available at: MET OFFICE UK (2011) National Meteorological Library and Archive Fact sheet No. 3 Water in the atmosphere. Available at: _Water_in_the_Atmosphere.pdf MOLNÁR István, Head of operations control at E.ON Hungary (2013) After the storm the effect and afterlife of the extreme weather at the distribution centers, 24 October 2013 PÁLDY Anna (2013), Impacts of Climate Change and Adaptation Measures of Public Health Sector of the city of Veszprém and District 13 of Budapest. Final report, OrientGate Technical Paper. [Online] Available at: SCHAUSER I. et al. (2010) Urban Regions: Vulnerabilities, Vulnerability Assessments by Indicators and Adaptation Options for Climate Change Impacts, ETC/ACC Technical Paper 2010/12 December European Topic Centre on Air and Climate Change SZEGEDI TUDOMÁNYEGYETEM (2013) Vízföldtani Alapfogalmak. Available at SZÉPSZÓ G., KRÜZSELYI I., SZABÓ P. (2013) Climate projections for Veszprém. Hungarian Met Office, OrientGate Technical Paper. [Online] Available at: TÁ (2013) 170 millió forintból építenek csapadékvíz-elvezető csatornát Veszprémben. Magyar Nemzet Online. [Online] Available at: [Accessed 14 October 2013] 35

37 VESZPRÉM MEGYEI JOGÚ VÁROS ÖNKORMÁNYZATA (2008) Tájékoztató Veszprém város évi környezeti állapotáról. Available at: VESZPRÉM MEGYEI JOGÚ VÁROS ÖNKORMÁNYZATA (2010) Tájékoztató Veszprém város évi környezeti állapotáról. Available at: VESZPRÉM MEGYEI JOGÚ VÁROS ÖNKORMÁNYZATA (2013a) Veszprém Megyei Jogú Város Településfejlesztési Koncepció Felülvizsgálata I. kötet Adatgyűjtés Helyzetelemzés Véleményezési dokumentáció. Available at: VESZPRÉM MEGYEI JOGÚ VÁROS ÖNKORMÁNYZATA (2013b) Veszprém Megyei Jogú Város Településfejlesztési Koncepció Felülvizsgálata II. kötet Településfejlesztési koncepció. Available at: WHO (2010a). Protecting health in an environment challenged by climate change: European Regional Framework for Action. WHO Regional Office for Europe, Copenhagen, Denmark. Available at: data/assets/pdf_file/0005/95882/parma_eh_conf_edoc06rev1.pdf 36

38 ANNEXES 37

39 Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Measures in the Public Health Sector in the City of Veszprém and Budapest s District XIII Final report By Anna Paldy MD, PhD September 2014

40 Acknowledgements This study was produced by Anna Paldy MD, PhD, an external expert commissioned by the Regional Environmental Center for Central and Eastern Europe (REC) within the OrientGate project. The OrientGate project was co- funded by the EU s South East Europe Transnational Cooperation Programme. For further information, see 2

41 Introduction Climate change is the biggest global health threat of the 21st century. This statement opens and sums up the final report of a year- long collaboration between The Lancet and University College London (UCL) Institute for Global Health (the UCL Lancet Commission report, 2009). The statement is based on the results of research and observations of increasing probability. Global mean temperature has risen by 0.76 C since the mid- 19th century. The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2007) states that 11 out of the 12 years between 1995 and 2006 were among the hottest recorded since 1850, according to surface observations. Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid- 20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations a statement that is supported by the results of model simulations. The possible change in climate is assessed according to different climate scenarios based on different socioeconomic development models (Figure 1). Two extreme situations are considered: the continuous economic growth of the present energy- consuming economy ( business as usual ); and a switch in the economy towards environmentally friendly, sustainable development. Figure 1: Different socioeconomic development storylines and projected global warming Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, 2007 Both scenario pairs A1 B1 and A2 B2 predict the future based on the acceleration of globalisation processes and regional development. The models predict an increase in global surface temperature by 1.4 to 5.8 C by the end of the 21st century. Even in the case of the optimal (least CO 2 emissions) scenario, the predicted minimum increase in temperature is 2 C. In the worst- case scenario, the increase in temperature will be over 5 C. According to the EC Green Paper Adaptation to Climate Change, the most vulnerable areas in Europe are Southern Europe and the entire Mediterranean Sea basin, where the combined impacts of a considerable increase in temperature and decease in precipitation will affect areas that are currently subject to water shortages. Hungary lies on the border of this region. 3

42 In this context, a new interdisciplinary and multisectoral public health policy is needed at both national and international level, involving the cooperation of international agencies, academics and NGOs. Climate change mitigation and the prevention of climate change impacts must be integrated into each sectoral policy as reflected in the EC s Horizon 2020 programme. This should be reflected in calls for research proposals, in the activities of foundations, in scientific publications and, last but not least, in educational curricula from kindergarten to high school. Appropriate indicators should be formulated to monitor these processes and evaluate the effectiveness of implemented measures. In international terms, mitigation is a priority, although nationally adaptation should be given high- level support. The two aspects should not, of course, be separated. When planning measures, the socioeconomic situation should be taken into consideration and political measures capable of reducing social inequalities should be planned when implementing adaptation strategies. It is very important to build understanding among local municipalities and communities of the global and local hazards of climate change in order to be able to create local measures to reduce their impacts. The role of public health experts is important in this process: their task is to raise awareness and to educate local managers, NGOs and members of future generations. The principles of sustainable development should be accepted at national and local level. Progress has already been achieved in Hungary, where an assessment of the expected health impacts of climate change has been carried out (including the impacts of heat waves; vector-, food- and water- borne diseases, and changes in the onset and spread of allergenic plants). An increased variability in the weather has been experienced in recent years: heat waves, cold spells and flash floods have drawn attention to the need for preventive actions and measures. Heat waves are the most important impact of climate change in our region, thus their effects are described in detail below. Climate change and health Four main areas can be distinguished regarding the health impacts of climate change. The first impacts are directly caused by weather, the most important being heat waves and extreme weather events. Indirect impacts include vector- and food- borne diseases, and allergies caused by airborne allergens. In these cases, changes in climate- sensitive environmental systems contribute to changes in the spatial and temporal occurrence of various diseases. There is increasing evidence that climate change will have an impact on human health, and that this impact will contribute to the global burden of disease and premature deaths. According to the Fourth IPCC Assessment Report, climate change will affect the health status of millions of people, especially those who have low adaptive capacity. The main global problems are: increased rates of malnutrition and associated disorders, including those related to children s growth and development; increased numbers of people suffering from disease and injury caused by heat waves, floods, storms, fires and droughts; the expansion of the geographic range of malaria and the possible extension of its transmission season (although in some areas the geographic range may contract); 4

43 the higher incidence of diarrhoeal diseases; the altered distribution of some infectious disease vectors; the increased frequency of cardiorespiratory diseases due to higher concentrations of ground- level ozone; the altered seasonal distribution of some allergenic pollen species; and the increased risk of deaths related to heat waves. In the 2007 green paper mentioned above, and in a white paper published in 2009, the EC acknowledges and emphasises that the harmful impacts of climate change are growing rapidly and reaching dangerous levels. The EC identifies the greatest threat in Europe as excess mortality and morbidity during heat waves due to high temperatures related to climate change. Changes in the spread of vector-, drinking water and food- borne diseases, along with changes in the spread of airborne allergens modified by changes to the atmosphere, are considered major threats in Europe. Another source of risk are changes in UV radiation, as climate change delays the recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer. Thermophysiology and heat illness Normal body temperature in humans (ranging between 36.1 and 37.8 o C) is maintained by the hypothalamus, which constantly regulates the production and loss of heat. Heat is lost to the environment by radiation from the skin in the form of infrared rays, a type of electromagnetic wave; by convection as a result of water or air circulation across the skin; by conduction, via cooler objects in direct contact with the skin; and by the evaporation of sweat. Conduction, radiation and convection require a temperature gradient between the skin and its surroundings, while evaporation entails a water vapour pressure gradient. Excessive heat exposure constitutes a major stress for the organism, and particularly for the cardiovascular system. When environmental heat overwhelms the body s heat- dissipating mechanism, the core temperature rises. An increase of less than 1 o C is immediately detected by thermoreceptors disseminated through the skin, deep tissues and organs. The thermoreceptors convey the information to the hypothalamic thermoregulatory centre, which triggers two powerful responses to increase the dissipation of heat: an active increase in both blood flow to the skin and cardiac output, at the expense of other major systems. When the outdoor temperature is higher than the skin temperature, the only heat- loss mechanism available is evaporation (sweating). Thus any factor that hampers evaporation, such as high ambient humidity, reduced air currents (no breeze, tight- fitting clothes) or drugs with anticholinergic mechanisms will result in a rise in body temperature that can culminate in life- threatening heatstroke or aggravate chronic medical conditions in vulnerable individuals. Mild and moderate heat- related problems include heat rash, heat oedema, heat syncope, heat cramps and heat exhaustion. 5

44 Figure 2: Factors affecting human thermoregulation and the risk of heat illness Source: Matthies, 2008 The impact of climate change on daily mortality The primary causes of concern in Europe are heat- related morbidity and mortality, due to increases in annual temperature and heat extremes, although these are also influenced by socioeconomic changes such as population growth and the ageing of the population (EU Adaptation Strategy, 2013). In EU member states, it is estimated that mortality rates rise by between 1 and 4 percent for each 1 o C rise in temperature, meaning that heat- related mortality could rise by 30,000 deaths per year by the 2030s and by 50,000 to 110,000 deaths per year by the 2080s. The Climate- Trap project has estimated that by 2035 annual mortality will increase by 1.25 percent and 1.45 percent (depending on the scenario used). The increase in expected respiratory- related hospital admissions attributed to the additional cases in 2035 ranges beween 0.08 percent and 0.76 percent for the different countries studied. Certain causes of death linked to the environment play a major role in many regions. Elderly people have a reduced ability to control and regulate body temperature and are therefore most at risk of death from cardiovascular, renal, respiratory and metabolic disorders and, in extreme situations, from heat stroke (Matthies et al 2008). Whilst the total numbers of deaths are strongly related to population size, the change in death rates can be far greater in regions where conditions are conducive to greater warming. The greatest impact is expected in Central and Southern Europe (D'Ippoliti et al 2010, Table 1). 6

45 There is an increasing demand for an assessment of the predicted health impacts of climate change in order to help formulate relevant policy measures. The latest literature review, carried out in 2011 based on 14 original studies, concluded that climate change will significantly increase excess mortality due to heat. In order to assess the predicted impact, it is necessary to know the relationship between temperature and mortality, changes in the climate, the size and age distribution of the population, as well as acclimatisation in a given area. It is also important to undertake a thorough analysis of socioeconomic development, adaptation strategies, land use, air pollution and the characteristics of short- and long- term changes in mortality (Huang et al 2011). Impacts of climate change on daily emergency ambulance calls Relatively few data are published regarding the association between heat stress and emergency ambulance calls. In some papers, data from health- care services were analysed, mainly emergency hospital admissions, which may correlate with emergency ambulance calls. Targeted non- fatal morbidity statistics are collected relatively rarely. According to a study carried out in the US, emergency hospital admissions increased due to heat waves. An 11 percent increase was detected in the total population, with a 35 percent increase among people aged over 65, during the 1995 heat wave in Chicago (Semenza et al. 1996). Out of these hospital admissions, 59 percent were related to temperature (dehydration, heat exhaustion, heat stroke) among patients suffering from chronic diseases. A small increase in hospital admissions was reported during the 1976 heat wave in Birmingham (Ellis et al. 1976). By contrast, no increase was recorded during the 1995 heat wave in London (Kovats et al. 2004). In 2003, emergency hospital admissions in London increased by 16 percent among people aged over 75 (Johnson et al. 2005). A similar association was reported in Spain (Cajoto et al. 2005), where 40 percent of admissions could be related to increased temperature, although heat stroke was never diagnosed. In France, which experienced the most intense heat wave, many hospitals were overwhelmed and heat stroke was diagnosed in several instances (Vanhems et al. 2003; Gremy et al. 2004). Time series analyses investigating the relationship between daily outdoor temperature and hospital admissions produced surprising results. The analysis of London data proved the risk represented by temperature only in a restricted number of diseases: emergency admissions due to chronic renal and respiratory diseases were significantly more frequent among people over 75 years of age (Kovats et al. 2004). European studies did not support the hypothesis that hospital admissions due to cardiovascular diseases increase in relation to temperature (Kovats et al. 2004; Panagiotakos 2004), although studies in the US found such an association (Schwartz et al. 2004). This can partly be explained by the assumption that hospital admissions are not a reliable indication of the incidence of disease due to the specificities of healthcare systems (e.g. threshold values for emergency admissions may differ in time and by country). Table 1: City- specific excess mortality due to heat waves (% increase and 90% confidence intervals) by cause of death in the population >65 years 7

46 All- cause mortality natural causes Respiratory mortality Cardiovascular mortality Cerebrovascular mortality City % increase (90% CI) % increase (90% CI) % increase (90% CI) % increase (90% CI) Athens 21.6 ( ) 34.5 ( ) 28.4 ( ) 33.0 ( ) Barcelona 15.6 ( ) 41.3 ( ) 21.4 ( ) 25.1 ( ) Budapest 21.1 ( ) 20.6 ( ) 24.1 ( ) 24.6 ( ) London 10.4 ( ) 18.0 ( ) 9.3 ( ) 10.6 ( ) Milan 33.6 ( ) 92.5 ( ) 39.2 ( ) 49.8 ( ) Munich 7.6 ( ) 3.9 ( ) 8.2 ( ) 14.7 ( ) Paris 11.4 ( ) 27.7 ( ) 12.3 ( ) 19.7 ( ) Rome 26.8 ( ( ( (38.0 8

47 All- cause mortality natural causes Respiratory mortality Cardiovascular mortality Cerebrovascular mortality City % increase (90% CI) % increase (90% CI) % increase (90% CI) % increase (90% CI) 30.4) 83.3) 43.3) 58.8) Valencia 8.5 ( ) 32.4 ( ) 20.1 ( ) 1.4 ( ) Source: D'Ippoliti et al., 2010 Heat- health warning systems play an important role in preventing the harmful impacts of temperature (Tan et al. 2004; Pascal et al. 2006; Ebi et al. 2004). The first heat alert plan was elaborated in Lisbon in 1981, when there was an excess mortality of 1,906 people during a heat wave with a maximum temperature of 43 o C in June. In 1995, a similar heat alert plan was launched in Philadelphia (US) when the number of heat waves began to increase (Smoyer et al. 2001; Koppe et al. 2004). Hungary s heat- health warning system was elaborated within the project Prevention of Acute Health Effects of Weather Conditions in Europe (PHEWE, ). Budapest was one of five cities in which such a system was elaborated by the chair of meteorology at the University of Birmingham (Páldy et al. 2006). The heat- health warning system was based on daily mortality and meteorological data for Budapest. As neither the World Meteorological Organization nor the World Health Organization had a definition of a heat wave, the Hungarian research group elaborated a three- level warning system based on temperature thresholds defined in a time series analysis of Budapest data for the period. First warning level (for internal use): when the daily mean temperature is forecast at 25 o C for one day, with 15 percent excess mortality likely. Second warning level (alert): when the meteorological service forecasts a daily mean temperature of 25 o C for at least three consecutive days with 15 percent excess mortality; or when the forecast daily mean temperature is 27 o C for one day with predicted excess mortality of 30 percent. Third warning level (alarm): when the meteorological service forecasts a daily mean temperature of 27 o C for at least three consecutive days with excess mortality of 30 percent. 9

48 Climate change related research began in Hungary at the beginning of the 2000s. Health impact assessments were carried out, and the effects of heat/heat waves based on real- time health data were continuously monitored. Research has also been carried out in relation to vector- borne diseases. Changes in flowering seasons and the spread of allergenic plant species are also an important public health issue. Extreme precipitation and more frequent floods have focused attention on the need to protect vulnerable drinking water sources and to elaborate complex flood prevention and mitigation plans. The years 2007 to 2011 drew attention to the increased variability of weather and temperatures. Even in countries with a continental climate, such as Hungary, preparations should be made in order to prevent the impacts of extreme cold spells in the future. The results of these studies, along with international experience, reinforce the need for climate change adaptation. Summary of the most important results of the Hungarian studies According to the National Environmental Health Action Plan (NEHAP), the impacts of heat and extreme meteorological events can be considered as the most important health risks in the Carpathian Basin (Paldy et al. 2004). A detailed analysis carried out by Paldy et al. (2005) states that daily mortality is mainly affected by temperature, in terms of meteorological parameters. An analysis of the associations between weather parameters and daily mortality in Budapest between 1970 and 2000 showed that a 5 C increase in daily mean temperature above 18 C increases the risk of total mortality by 10.6 percent (95% CI 9.7, 14.0). As shown in Figure 3, 18 o C is the ideal temperature with the lowest daily mortality. A slight increase in mortality from all causes can be observed up to 25 or 26 o C, and above this threshold a steeper increase appears. A similar relationship can be detected with respect to the increase in mortality due to cardiovascular diseases. 10

49 Figure 3. Association between daily mean temperature and daily total mortality during summer in Budapest, The analysis showed that an increase in relative humidity increases the risk of mortality due to respiratory diseases during the winter period. An increase in air pressure has a beneficial impact: high- pressure air masses significantly decrease the risk of mortality in Budapest. The impact of temperature on the urban population is well known. However, few data are published for smaller settlements. In a further time series analysis, the impact of temperature on daily mortality in the capital was compared to that in the neighbouring county, and in another city in the south of the country (Szeged) and the corresponding county (Csongrad). Daily excess mortality increased by between 12 and 16 percent on days with a mean temperature of >25 C, corresponding to 200 cases per year. The results of this study were similar to the Budapest study, suggesting that heat- related excess mortality can be summarised for the country as a whole with greater certainty (Bobvos and Páldy 2009). The summer of 2007 was the most extreme season ever recorded, with three heat waves affecting Hungary. During the first and third heat wave, excess mortality was less than 5 percent. Between July 16 and 24, the daily mean temperature was above 30 C for five days. High temperatures had a clear impact on daily mortality: heat- related excess mortality was higher in hospitals than elsewhere. During the second heat wave, which lasted for 10 days, the excess mortality rate was lower than during the 2003 heat wave in France, although during the five hottest days the average excess death rate was 57 percent. Based on the association stated for the Central Hungary region, excess mortality cases can be assumed at between 600 and 800 (Páldy and Bobvos 2008). Using estimates from the time series analysis of data for the period, lower excess mortality could be predicted with a daily mean temperature of over 30 C, while below this temperature higher excess mortality was forecast compared to the rates detected in

50 In order to compare excess mortality during previous years with that of 2007, some assumptions were made, thus the results must be regarded with caution. Similarly, there is a lot of uncertainty concerning the extrapolation of results for the country as a whole. Further evaluation of the validated mortality data is necessary in order to qualify the association. It was stated that the measures applied to date during heat alerts can reduce the impacts of heat waves with a mean temperature of 25 C to 29 C. On the other hand, excess mortality significantly increased on extremely hot days. The impacts of the 2007 heat waves were re- assessed using the daily mortality data at small area level according to the EC nomenclature of territorial units for statistics (NUTS 4). The assessment concluded that mean daily mortality (344 cases at national level) significantly increased during the heat waves. A maximum increase of 63 percent was recorded on July 20 (547 cases). The total excess mortality during the heat wave was 1,158 cases, meaning a 36 percent increase for the total population (33.2 percent for men; 36.4 percent for women). In the younger age group, between 0 and 64 years old, there was an increase of 20.2 percent; and among those over 65 years of age the increase was 41 percent. There is little evidence of the association between socioeconomic factors and human adaptive capacity to climate change. A further study investigated whether the spatial impact of heat on mortality was modified by social deprivation, population density, and proportion of elderly people. A risk analysis was carried out between excess mortality among those aged 50 and over and socioeconomic status, as well as population density. The impact of heat was stronger and significant in terms of excess mortality in the most deprived areas of the country (a 77 percent increase) compared to the most affluent areas (a 14 percent increase) (Páldy et al. 2011). As greater weather variability has been experienced in recent years, the impact of heat waves on excess mortality was also studied in 2011 and 2012 for the country, for Budapest, and for seven regions in terms of the difference in daily mortality on days with a temperature higher than 25 C (second heat alert level) and with a mean temperature of >27 C (third heat alert level), and average daily mortality on days with a mean temperature lower than 25 C during the period June 1 to August 31 in 2011 and Total excess mortality, as well as excess mortality by age group and gender, were computed for the periods of second and third heat alert levels. There were two heat alerts in 2011, and four in In 2011, excess mortality was 5.4 percent at country level during the second- level heat alert, and 17.4 percent during the third- level alert. The highest excess mortality (22 percent) was recorded in the North Hungary region during the second- level alert, and 23 percent in the Central Hungary region during the third- level alert. A total of 593 excess death cases were registered during the heat alerts in In 2012, excess mortality was 33 percent in the capital during the third- level heat alert (13 days), while the excess was 27 percent at country level. Altogether 1,666 excess death cases could be attributed to the 26 days of the four heat alerts. In both years, mortality among women during the heat alerts was somewhat higher than among men, the difference being bigger during the third- level alerts. In terms of age, mortality rates were very similar between the 0 to 64 age group and the 65 to 74 age group. In the latter group, almost twice as many elderly people died during the heat alerts than in the younger age group. In spite of the heat alerts, excess mortality during heat waves was registered each year, the absolute number of heat- related excess deaths being highest in 2012 (1,666 cases) out of the last 10 years. These facts underline the need to elaborate more effective measures to prevent heat- related excess mortality (Páldy and Bobvos 2012). 12

51 Relationship between temperature and emergency ambulance calls in Hungary The association between emergency ambulance calls and daily mean temperature was studied using data from Budapest s ambulance service for the summer period (April to September) each year between 1998 and Ambulance calls due to cardiovascular and respiratory disease, heat stroke and malaise, as well as the total number of calls, were studied for three age groups: 0 to 14 years old; 15 to 64 years old; and 65 years old and over (Páldy et al. 2007). During the studied period, 474,500 calls were registered, meaning 217 cases per day. The reason for the call was not identified in approximately 30 percent of the calls; 18.5 percent were due to cardiovascular diseases; 3.7 percent to respiratory diseases; and 9.4 percent to malaise. The steepness of the curve was defined by cause and age group, and relative risk was computed in relation to the temperature on the given day (lag0) and the mean temperature on the previous three days (lag1-3). A 10 o C increase in daily mean temperature significantly increased the number of calls due to cardiovascular diseases (6 percent) in the middle age group and by 2 percent in the total population. The greatest impact was seen in calls due to malaise, where there was a 30 percent increase for the total population. The relationship between daily mean temperature and ambulance calls is quasi linear (Figure 4). Figure 4: Impact of a 10 0 C increase in daily mean temperature on the number of emergency ambulance calls in the summer in Budapest ( ) ill defined symptoms (%) S0L0 S0L1 S0L2 S0L3 S15L0 S15L1 S15L2 S15L3 S65L0 S65L1 S65L2 S65L3 SL0 SL1 SL2 SL3 13

52 In the Budapest study for the period, we can state that a 10 o C increase in temperature increased the number of calls by 10.6 percent. A national analysis of 2007 data showed an increase of 8.9 percent (Páldy et al. 2008). Both associations are significant, although the confidence intervals overlap. We can therefore state that the results of the two studies do not differ from one another, thus the association can be modelled at national level. Predicted impact of climate change on daily excess mortality and emergency ambulance calls for the and periods The assessment was carried out using the A1B emission scenario based on the RegCM regional climate model. According to this model, annual mean temperature will increase by 1.09 o C in the period, and by 3.8 o C in the period in relation to the 10.0 o C of the reference period. According to the climate model, the 2 o C increase in mean temperature predicted by the EU can be expected in the period. Based on the national monthly mean temperatures predicted by the RegCM model, it can be stated that an increase in temperature higher than the annual mean temperature can be predicted in the first half of the year (January June) in the period. In contrast, an increase in temperature is predicted in the second half of the year (July December) in relation to the annual average in the period. Concerning meteorological parameters, daily mortality is influenced mostly by temperature. Daily mortality showed a characteristic picture: it was 10 percent higher, compared to 10 percent lower during the winter, than the annual mean daily mortality. In 2007, the mean daily mortality was 344 cases. In order to assess the predicted increase in daily mortality, a linearised association was used, which predicted a 4.9 percent increase per 1 C increase in temperature. The rate of mortality in hospitals was three times higher than outside hospitals, although the increase in mortality in relation to temperature was the same in both locations. When assessing excess mortality due to climate change, it can be stated that the proportion of days with a mean temperature >25 o C (the heat alert threshold) would increase by 45.5 percent in in relation to the reference period, while this increase would be percent in There were 167 such days in the reference period. Excess mortality on days with a mean temperature of >25 o C increases in relation to the increase in the number and intensity of these days. The mean number of cases per year (121) in the reference period will increase by 121 percent in (267 cases) and by 778 percent in (meaning 1,060 cases per year). When assessing the impact of climate change on the number of emergency ambulance calls, the threshold temperature at the start of summer was defined as 12 o C. Based on the daily curve of the reference period in the RegCM model, these days were used in the modelling. Days with a mean temperature above 12 o C increase the number of emergency ambulance calls by 1.06 percent per 1 o C. Compared to the reference period, the proportion of days with a mean temperature >12 o C would increase by 11 percent in , and by 24 percent in There were 4,546 such days during the 30 years of the reference period. The frequency of 14

53 emergency ambulance calls will increase by 6.4 percent (19,000) in the period , and by 9.2 percent (27,000 excess calls) in , meaning 322,000 total ambulance calls per year, in relation to the reference period with a mean number of calls (295,000) on days with a mean temperature of >12 o C (Páldy and Bobvos 2011). Conclusions from earlier Hungarian studies The assessment of excess mortality and temperature was based on the 31- year time series ( ) for temperature and daily mortality in Budapest. It was concluded that relative humidity and air pressure do not significantly modify the relationship between mortality and temperature. In the study of climate change impacts, the assessment was extrapolated for the whole country, assuming that the impact of temperature would change in the periods and in a similar way as in the past 40 years. Based on two previous studies, it can similarly be assumed that 20 percent excess mortality may affect the adult working- age population. The majority of excess deaths relate to the group of people over 65 years of age. The rate of excess mortality among the active and inactive working- age population could not be assessed, although this rate would be important in terms of adaptation. These data cannot be accessed due to the protection of privacy. However, the identification of high- risk diseases in relation to the impact of temperature may help to answer the question. The main risk areas are chronic cardiovascular, respiratory, metabolic (obesity, diabetes) and mental diseases, and the restriction of self- care and mobility. In Hungary, the proportion of the population over 60 years of age in 2000 was 20.4 percent (more than 2 million people), 61 percent out of whom were women. More than 50 percent of the group of those over 60 were older than 70, and more than 12 percent had restricted mobility, sight and/or hearing. Among these elderly people, 27 percent lived alone, 35 percent lived with another elderly person, and only 44,000 lived in social care institutions or hospitals. Sixty percent of the adult population and 20 percent of people aged between 15 and 20 in Hungary are overweight (KSH 2001). There is an increasing amount of data available about the lower heat- resistance capacity of patients with diabetes and metabolic syndrome (Curtis et al. 2011; Colleen et al. 2009). The risk to this group is increased by low educational level, poverty, isolation, and lack of urban green areas. In 2006, there were 507,000 diabetic patients in the age group in Hungary. A significant increase in the prevalence of the disease is expected: every 10th person will be affected in Hungary by 2025 (Diabetes Atlas 2006). Occupational heat exposure affected 27 percent of employees in Hungary. Within this group, there were 32,227 employees working in the transport, post and telecommunications sectors (Molnár 2002). Additional uncertainty factors are the expected changes in the size and age distribution of the Hungarian population. In the assessment it was assumed that these parameters would not change, although this hypothesis might lead to a significant bias in the result. The age distribution of the Hungarian population shows that the characteristics of ageing are already present. The proportion of children in the population is continuously decreasing, from 22.3 percent in 1968 to 14.7 percent in At the same time, the proportion of elderly people over the age of 65 rose to 15.7 percent in 2008 from 12.3 percent in The proportion of those aged over 65 surpassed the proportion of children in the population for the first time in 2005, and is currently 15

54 considerably higher. Bearing in mind the falling birth rate, we can suppose that the tendency will be a rise in the proportion of elderly people (Páldy et al. 2011). Another important vulnerability factor is the baseline mortality of the population. Hungary ranks high among European countries in mortality due to non- communicable diseases. More than 90 percent of deaths can be grouped into five leading causes of death (cardiovascular, malignant, gastrointestinal and respiratory diseases, and external causes). Although mortality due to these five leading causes did not increase in the last decade, cardiovascular disease mortality was more than three and a half times higher among men, and three times higher among women, than the average for the 15 EU member states in 2009 (Páldy et al. 2011). It is very difficult to assess the changes in mortality by the mid- 21 st century and the end of the century in order to assess how the changing baseline mortality will affect excess mortality due to climate change. Heat- related mortality can be significantly reduced by increasing the heat resilience of the health- care system. The simplest solution is air conditioning, although this solution contributes to an increase in CO 2 emissions, unless renewable energy sources are used. According to a 2010 survey in Hungary, only 10 percent of hospital beds were in air- conditioned wards, which may have contributed to excess mortality three times higher inside hospitals than outside hospitals during the July heat wave in 2007 (Páldy 2010), although the percentage increase in mortality with temperature was the same (Páldy et al. 2008). The beneficial effect of air conditioning was proved in France, where excess mortality was 14,000 during the 2003 heat wave, but only 2,065 in 2006 due to the adaptation measures implemented by health institutions, such as the installation of air conditioning (Laiidi et al. 2006; Foulliet et al. 2008). In the future, the minimum conditions for a hospital licence should be revised, and the insulation and cooling of hospital buildings should be controlled. A further institutional prerequisite of successful adaptation is the accessibility of health- care services. It is well known that cardiovascular diseases such as myocardial infarction and strokes related to high temperature can be effectively treated if the patient is delivered to hospital within one hour (Bracken et al. 1997). In addition to mortality data, emergency ambulance call data can be used in assessing the impact of heat waves. The French emergency data collection system established after the 2003 heat wave proved that heat- related symptoms (hyperthermia, dehydration, loss of sodium) showed a significant increase during the 2006 heat wave (Laaidi et al. 2006). A study analysing events in Paris during 2003 reported that patients visiting emergency rooms were suffering from hyperthermia and problems in orientation (Oberlin et al. 2008). Mastrangelo (2005) stressed that heat- related cardiovascular problems can be very serious and may lead to a high mortality rate among elderly people living alone in isolation. It is therefore very important to monitor this very high risk population group during heat waves, and even mild problems should be treated within the framework of emergency care, which contributes to an increase in the number of ambulance calls. 16

55 Sensitivity, adaptive capacity and vulnerability An examination of the vulnerability and adaptive capacity of the population should involve the study of environmental exposure, as described above, as well as other factors influencing health status in order to assess the potential for adaptability. For this purpose, it is essential to be aware of the basic health condition of the population and factors influencing health. Key concepts Adaptation is to be understood as an alignment with environmental stimuli and impacts as a consequence of positive or negative meteorological changes. Mitigation can be achieved by global and national measures. At regional and local level, measures to reduce damage should be undertaken to support the population. The basic phenomena and processes of adaptation are described in the chapter Impacts, Adaptation, Vulnerability by Working Group II, contained in the Third IPCC Assessment Report (2001). It includes a detailed description of further terms such as sensitivity, resilience, resistance, effect vulnerability, spontaneous or autonomous adaptation, planned adaptation and adaptive capacity. Important terms Adaptation is to be understood as alignment with the stimuli and impacts of the experienced natural and human/social systems, as well as with foreseeable future changes due to climate change and an alteration in general conditions. The impacts of climate change may be positive (fewer winter deaths due to the rise in winter temperature, for example) or negative (the more frequent occurrence of extreme weather events and excess mortality) from the human point of view. The sensitivity of any system is the susceptibility of that system to external impacts. The resilience of a system is deemed to be the complexity of the replacement of losses and the aptitude for self- reproduction. On the other hand, the resistance of the system shows how effectively the system is able to counteract or prevent the effects of any event. Vulnerability is the extent to which systems become damaged, which depends on the extent of sensitivity to the impacts of the given event beyond the limits of tolerance. Adaptive capacity means the complex ability of any community or region, the complexity of its practical activities, and the means by which it can cope with the load originating from the environment. In other words, adaptive capacity influences the vulnerability and sensitivity of the system. Eight areas of adaptive capacity can be distinguished: available technological facilities; financial resources; the structure of critical institutions and decision- making authorities; human capital; social capital, including property conditions; access to the system by risk- spreading processes; information management and the authenticity of information supported by decision makers; and the exposure and risk perception of the population. Based on the IPCC Assessment Report, Yohe and Tol (2002) suggested a mathematical model to define vulnerability. In this context, vulnerability which can be expressed as loss caused by climate change, such as mortality depends on exposure and sensitivity. That is, it depends consistently on adaptive capacity. In this regression model, vulnerability is primarily influenced by per capita income. Alberini et al. (2005) further developed the model using figures for the

56 2003 period from 140 countries. They found that the most important determining factors for adaptive capacity are per capita income; inequalities; the availability of health- care services; and access to information (Figure 5). They emphasised that mortality due to climate change related catastrophes is inversely correlated with adaptive capacity. Figure 5: Adaptive capacity indices of 18 countries in Europe and Central Asia. Larger indices mean higher adaptive capacities Source: Alberini et al Human risks emerging in planned adaptation as a complex process In addition to the primary natural/environmental challenges, secondary risks of a human and social nature also arise, which jeopardise the process of adaptation. If anything is misunderstood in connection with the primary challenges or response to them, resulting in an incorrect decision or inappropriate action being taken, this can be regarded as a risk emerging on the human side. On the other hand, in processes aimed at changing firmly established and routine activities, an even larger number of human risks and more significant problems tend to emerge. They may become visible in the course of the identification and detection of risks. Risk management may be inappropriately influenced by decisions motivated by individual and group interests, or by the postponement of decisions. Another essential factor in adaptive capacity is the ability to cope with problems. The more objective information we have in relation to problems and situations, the stronger this ability tends to be, and it becomes possible to interpret them appropriately in the light of existing knowledge and previous experience. Adequate problem- solving abilities should be available at both the individual and the community level, and empathy and support are both very important. In preventing the health impacts of climate change that is, in the adaptation process the ability to cope is highly important at individual level and at the level of the greater or smaller 18

57 community alike. The model should consider successful adaptation as the essential external and internal condition for problem solving. Adaptation to climate change may obviously have various objects, in view of the type of intervention (e.g. research, legal regulation, investment, education, mass communication) and according to the efficiency of the intervention and the actors. Support to adaptation at community level Adaptation to the health impacts of climate change and the associated responses have an influence on individuals, communities and society. Appropriate preparation for, and reactions to, current and foreseeable changes call for the continuous evaluation of interventions: it is not sufficient to assess risks and interventions only once. In order to strengthen resilience to climate change and adaptation at the community level, Ebi et al. (2006) suggest the use of a multistage cycle (Figure 6), which promotes proactive problem solving among stakeholders and reinforces social capital at the local and national level. It should be emphasised, however, that in addition to local actions and initiatives to mitigate vulnerability, there is a need for central, top- down actions implemented by public health- care organisations. Figure 6. Cycle of community- based adaptation Source: Ebi et al

58 Adaptation at the level of public health is to be understood and interpreted as planning, evaluation and monitoring strategies and procedures that is, actions applied to moderate the impacts of climate change or for the purposes of prevention. This definition corresponds to the definition of prevention in the context of public health. Such actions include preventive actions that are suitable for the mitigation of realistic or experienced risks. The ability of local communities to reduce harmful impacts on health by way of adaptation is highly dependent on social capital, infrastructure, governmental commitment and the ability of organisations to respond. Adaptive capacity therefore depends on the ability of a given person to make spontaneous responses, as well as on planned governmental and institutional interventions. The type and extent of the health risks are decisive with respect to the formulation of an intervention strategy. In the process of adaptation decision making, it is essential to anticipate risks, while the reliability of anticipation largely determines the specific nature of the planned adaptation. The more reliable the anticipation of the expected health risk, the more targeted actions can be planned. A second factor is awareness of risk, which gives grounds for the need to take new and complementary measures. If the health impact in question is already present in the population in the given area, and if it is now under effective control, then it is easy to take additional measures on the basis of the available experience. By contrast, the implementation of actions to cope with newly emerging health risks represents a considerable burden, and in general such actions can be formulated only in the light of others experience. The outcomes of adaptive measures are rather unfavourable when the health risks in question are longstanding in the given area and have not been effectively brought under control so far. A third important factor is the timely implementation of the response. Public health interventions are usually determined as primary, secondary or tertiary interventions. In climate change adaptation, the prediction of future risk is very important in the decision- making process, and its reliability to a great extent defines the specificity of planned adaptation. The more certain the prediction of a future health impact, the more specific measures can be planned. When the health outcome in question is already present in the population in a certain area and has already been effectively controlled, it is relatively easy to launch additional measures. By contrast, combating newly emerging health risks is a big load, and measures should be elaborated on the basis of experiences gained by other communities. The effects of adaptive measures may be unfavourable if the health risks in question have persisted for a long time without effective control. The third important factor is emergency responsive action, when adaptation to climate change and variability is considered as a dynamically increasing stressor. Public health actions are defined as primary, secondary and tertiary preventive actions. In connection to climate change, the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions is considered as zero- level prevention. The aim of primary prevention is to redesign cities in order to reduce urban heat islands. Secondary prevention is understood as the establishment of surveillance systems to facilitate the timely identification of signs and/or consequences (heat waves, vector- borne diseases etc.). Tertiary prevention is interpreted as the elimination, management and mitigation of long- term effects or impacts that have already occurred. The literature confirms that top- down public health interventions are less successful than measures and actions arising from initiatives at the level of individuals and small communities. It is important to bear in mind that these bottom- up interventions can only be successful if there is 20

59 a thorough knowledge of the associated social, ecological, cultural and political environment. Arrangements at community level are suitable for ensuring that people are moving in the same direction in order to realise common benefits, and participate in decision making. Community- level decision making builds on the system of the relations of social capital, which promotes appropriate planning and decision- making processes, and thus the implementation of the set objectives. During adaptation, the experience of other communities can obviously be used very efficiently which is also a method for using social capital. 21

60 Pilot Study: Impacts of Climate Change and Adaptation Measures in the Public Health Sector in Budapest s District XIII and the City of Veszprém Associations between sensitivity, vulnerability and adaptation Figure 7 represents the associations between sensitivity, adaptive capacity and vulnerability. In order to create an effective plan to prevent the harmful effects of climate change, the determinants and characteristics of sensitivity and vulnerability must be thoroughly studied. Figure 7. Associations between sensitivity, vulnerability and adaptation 22

61 The vulnerable population of Budapest s District XIII and Veszprém Figure 8. Ageing index (%) in Budapest by district, 2010 Source: a- Budapest- Eg%C3%A9szs%C3%A9gterv- c%c3%adm%c5%b1- tanulm%c3%a1ny.aspx The ageing index is a very important indicator of the ageing process and represents the proportion of elderly people (65 years old and over) and children (0 to 14 years old) in the population. In recent years, the ratio has been high: in 2010 there were 120 elderly people to every 100 children in the county seats, while the ratio was 150 to 100 in Budapest. District XIII has a higher ageing index than the Budapest mean, with a ratio of between 157 and 200 to

62 Figure 9: Standardised mortality in the male and female population (0 to 100 years old) in Budapest by district, Men Women Standardised mortality ratio Mortality among men in District XIII is 9.4 percent higher than the mean for Budapest, and 5.4 percent higher among women. Life expectancy at birth is 72.8 years for men and 79.2 years for women. Relying on the associated national and international methodology, Juhász et al. (2010) worked out a socioeconomic status index, based on a combination of selected factors reflecting the social situation at settlement level. The index includes seven settlement- level indicators taken from the database of the National Regional Development and Spatial Planning Information System (based on the 2001 census: unemployment rate; educational level; income; number of passenger cars; proportion of large families; proportion of single- parent families; population density). As determined by the socioeconomic status index, several districts on the Pest side of the city can be characterised as deprived areas, while the Buda side is more affluent. 24

63 Figure 10. Territorial distribution of socioeconomic inequalities on the basis of the deprivation index in Budapest Mapping the Deprivation index Budapest DI Grouping by quintiles of Hungary s values I. quintile II. quintile III. quintile IV. quintile V. quintile Grouping by quintiles of Budapest s values Juhasz A., Nagy C., Paldy A., Beale L.: Development of a Deprivation Index and its relation to premature mortality due to diseases of the circulatory system in Hungary, , Social Science & Medicine, 70: , 2010 As seen from the map, District XIII belongs to the third quintile of deprivation in Budapest. If we use the recent census data to compare Budapest s District XIII and Veszprém, we can state that several parameters are worse in District XIII in terms of determining sensitivity (proportion of one- person households, proportion of flats lacking amenities). In terms of education, the population of Veszprém has a higher rate of elementary and secondary school education than college/university education. 25

64 2011 census Budapest % District XIII % Veszprém % Proportion of one- person households Proportion of single- parent families Proportion of flats without running water Proportion of flats without a flush toilet Proportion of flats with central heating Proportion of flats lacking basic amenities Unemployment rate Proportion of population according to highest level of education Proportion of illiterate people Proportion with at least basic education Proportion with secondary school education Proportion college/university education Figures 11 to 15 show the percentages for selected parameters at district level in Budapest. District XIII falls into the fourth quintile for the majority of parameters, indicating an elevated level of sensitivity. 26

65 Figure 11: Percentage of single- person households in Budapest,

66 Figure 12: Percentage of single- parent families in Budapest,

67 Figure 13: Percentage of dwellings lacking basic amenities in Budapest,

68 Figure 14: Unemployment rate in Budapest,

69 Figure 15: Percentage of illiterate people >7 years old in Budapest, 2011 Health status of the population The health status of the population can be characterised by all causes of death, and by the leading causes of death. The maps in Figure 16 show the territorial distribution of mortality by settlement, age group and gender. Mortality among men in Budapest was lower than the national average. Among women, mortality in Budapest (and in District XIII) was slightly higher than the national average. Mortality in Veszprém was around the national average. Excess mortality in Budapest among women is mainly due to the higher rate of cancer- related mortality. 31

70 Figure 16: All- cause mortality (ICD- 10 A00- Y98) in Hungary, Men 0 64 years old Women >65 years old Legend smoothed SMR NUTS3 NUTS4 Source: Páldy et al

71 Figure 17. Standardised mortality rates/100,000 in Veszprém, 2007 (men) Ischaemic heart disease Cerebrovascular diseases Cancer of bronchi and lungs Cancer of colon and rectum Cancer of prostate Chronic liver diseases Chronic ostrucsve pulmonary diseases Self- inflicted injuries and suicide Veszprém Region Hungary Figure 18: Standardised mortality rates /100,000 in Veszprém, 2007 (women) Ischaemic heart diseases Cerebrovascular diseases Cancer of bronchi and lungs Cancer of colon and rectum Cancer of breasts Cancer of cervix Chronic liver diseases Chronic obstrucsve pulmonary diseases Self- inflicted injuries and suicide Veszprém Region Hungary The mortality rate due to cerebrovascular diseases was higher among both genders in Veszprém than at national level (Figures 17 and 18). 33

72 Morbidity The following diseases present elevated risk as a result of the impacts of heat waves: diabetes mellitus and other metabolic disorders; organic mental disorders, dementia, Alzheimer s disease; mental and behavioural disorders, drug use, alcoholism; schizophrenia and similar diseases; extrapyramidal diseases and other motor neurone diseases (e.g. Parkinson s disease); cardiovascular diseases, hypertension, arrhythmia; chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases; and renal dysfunction and renal calculus. The most sensitive population groups are young children and elderly people. The territorial distribution of major diseases per 100,000 inhabitants based on the annual report of general practitioners in 2009 is shown in Figures 19 to 22. The prevalence of each disease is high in Budapest, while the situation in Veszprém County is better, with the exception of diabetes. The prevalence of some diseases is shown at district level in Budapest. According to the database of outpatient consultations ( the number of consultations due to symptoms and diseases related to heat and sun exposure show a summer peak. Symptoms and diseases with a summer peak, and their database reference, are Salmonella infections (A02), dehydration (E86), conjunctivitis (H10), renal calculus (N23) and heat and solar radiation symptoms (T67). This evidence emphasises the burden on the health- care system during heat waves. Figure 19. Diabetes (ICD- 10: E10 E14, per 100,000 people, based on general practitioners reports, 2009, at county level 34

73 Figure 20. Hypertensive diseases (ICD- 10: I10 I15), per 100,000 people, based on general practitioners reports, 2009, at county level Figure 21: Ischaemic heart diseases (ICD- 10: I20 I25), per 100,000 people, based on general practitioners reports, 2009, at county level 35

74 Figure 22: Cerebrovascular diseases (ICD- 10: I60 I69) per 100,000 people based on general practitioners reports, 2009, at county level 36

75 Territorial distribution of selected diseases in Budapest, 2009 Figure 23: Risk of diabetes mellitus by district in 2009, from general practitioners reports Men Women Standardised prevalence ratio Lower quartile median upper quartile Corrected by Empirical Bayes Estimation As shown in Figure 23, the prevalence of diabetes mellitus is higher than the median in District XIII among the female population. The prevalence of Alzheimer s disease and hypertension is similar to that of diabetes in men and women in District XIII. 37

76 Figure 24: Risk of Alzheimer s disease by district, 2009, from general practitioners reports Men Women Standardised prevalence ratio Lower quartile median upper quartile Corrected by Empirical Bayes Estimation Figure 25. Risk of hypertension by district, 2009, from general practitioners reports Men Women Standardised prevalence ratio Lower quartile median upper quartile Corrected by Empirical Bayes Estimation 38

77 The impact of heat waves in Budapest s District XIII and Veszprém We analysed the association between temperature and daily mortality in District XIII and Veszprém on days on which the temperature was higher than 25 o C in the periods and Materials and methods Meteorological data (daily mean temperatures) were retrieved from the free database of the National Climatic Data Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Temperature data from the Pestszentlőrinc Meteorological Station were used for Budapest; and data from the Sármellék Meteorological Station were used for Veszprém. Daily mortality data were provided by the Central Statistical Office. The temperature and mortality data were analysed using descriptive statistical methods. Excess mortality was related to the mean daily mortality on days with a lower mean temperature than the threshold temperature for heat alert (a daily mean temperature of 25 C). Daily excess mortality is the difference between the daily mortality on a day during a heat wave and mean mortality on cooler days with a mean temperature of <25 C, considered as the baseline mortality for the given year during the summer period. The excess total mortality was computed for Budapest, for District XIII and for Veszprém for the summer periods between June 1 and August

78 Results Summer temperature and heat wave parameters in Budapest, mean temp. C max. temp. C days with temp < 25 C days with temp > 25 C days with temp > 27 C days with temp > 30 C number of heat waves days of heat waves

79 Figure 26. Association between daily mean temperature and mortality in Budapest, y = 4,9x napi halálozás % y = 5,4x y = 3,9x - 89, C Temperature and mortality have a U- shaped relationship: there is a 4.9 percent increase in daily mortality with an increase in daily mean temperature of 1 o C. The relationship is based on the 2007 data for Budapest. In 2007, the hottest- ever heat wave hit the country, lasting for 10 days. Excess mortality was seen in the whole country. Figure 27 shows data at district level in Budapest. 41

80 Figure 27. Excess mortality by district in Budapest (%), July 16 24, 2007 Excess mortality by district in Budapest (%), July 16 24, 2007 Tˆbblethal loz s ker letenkènt (%) Hal loz s % 150 Teljes Kardiov. Alap hal loz s % 0,73to 0,9 (5) 0,71to 0,73 (2) 0,64to 0,71 (6) 0,56to 0,64 (5) 0,46to 0,56 (5) The impact of heat in 2006 and 2007 can also be seen in Central Transdanubia, including Veszprém. 42

81 Figure 28: Association between temperature and daily mortality in Central Transdanubia, Figure 29: Excess mortality during heat waves (second and third alert level) in Central Transdanubia (%), Excess mortality % >25oC >27oC >25oC 2006 >25oC 2007 >27oC 2006 >27oC

82 We made a separate analysis of the impact of heat waves in District XIII and in the city of Veszprém. The baseline mean number of daily death cases is low in these settlements, especially in Veszprém, thus the results are not so consistent as on the larger scale. Mean daily deaths in District XIII between June 1 and August 31 ( ) Mean daily deaths Daily mortality was between 3.51 and 4.38 in the studied period. The association between daily mean temperature and mortality is shown in Figure 30. Figure 30: Daily mean temperature and mortality during the summer period in District XIII ( ) Mean Daily Temp Total Mortality Excess death cases during heat waves corresponding to the second and third heat alert levels in District XIII between 2002 and 2010 are shown in Figures 31 and

83 Figure 31: Excess mortality in District XIII, number of cases during heat waves corresponding to the second and third levels of alert Excess death cases>25oc excess death cases>27oc Figure 32: Excess mortality in District XIII (%) during heat waves corresponding to the second and third levels of alert Excess M in % (>25oC) Excess M in % (>27oC) Excess mortality during heat waves was not always observable in District XIII. The highest excess was seen in 2002, when mortality was 40 percent on days with a mean temperature >25 o C, and 72 percent higher on days with a mean temperature >27 o C. In 2007, a smaller excess was seen. In 2008, there was an excess of 60 percent during a heat wave with a second alert level. Figures 33 45

84 and 34 show that excess mortality during the 2007 heat wave was similar in Budapest and in District XIII. The impact was greater at district level in Figure 33: Observed mortality during heat waves in Budapest, Observed mortality - Number of excess cases C 27 C Figure 34: Excess mortality (%) during heat waves in Budapest, C 27 C 46

85 For Veszprém, a shorter dataset was used, between 2005 and The heat wave periods and the number of deaths are summarised below: Summer temperature and heat wave parameters in Veszprém, Mean temp o C Days with mean temp. <25 o C Days with mean temp. >25 o C Days with mean temp. >27 o C Number of heat waves Days of heat wave Daily mortality is very low in Veszprém, at one or two cases normally. During cool days, the daily mean mortality was between 0.39 and Excess mortality during heat waves (defined as at least three consecutive days with a mean temperature of >25 o C) was higher in 2005, 2006, 2008 and By contrast, the temperature/daily mortality graph per year shows some periods during which there was excess mortality. In 2005, between July 16 and 18, when the mean temperature was 23.5 o C, the number of death cases was seven, an unusually high mortality rate. The real heat wave 11 days later did not cause excess mortality. In 2006, there was a similar peak in June on the first day of a heat wave. Temp ( o C) Deaths June 17, June 18, June 19, June 20, June 21, June 22, In 2007, when the impact of the 10- day heat wave was very high at national level, there was no excess mortality in Veszprém. In 2008, during the period in which a second- level heat alert was issued at national level, there was excess mortality in Veszprém, although the daily mean temperatures were lower: Temp( o C) Deaths August 1, August 2, August 3, August 4,

86 In 2010, during the two heat waves, excess mortality was observed. We can conclude that heat waves caused a short- term mortality displacement, while heat- related excess mortality was observed in the early summer heat waves. Another conclusion is that lower mean temperature may also increase mortality in mountainous regions. The observed excess mortality occurred during periods when the mean temperature was >25 o C in Budapest and the southern areas of the country, and the heat alert was issued at national level. 48

87 mean mortality date Mean temp #ofdeaths <25oC >25oC

88 Figure 35: Daily mean temperature and deaths in Veszprém, daily deaths mean temp mean temp daily deaths

89 mean temp daily deaths mean temp daily deaths

90 mean temp daily deaths Sorozatok1 Sorozatok

91 Relationship between temperature and emergency ambulance calls As we were unable to collect data for the study areas, we used data for Vác, a city of a similar size to Veszprém (population 35,158). The conclusions can be extrapolated for the study areas. Based on the methodology for the assessment of the relationship between daily mean temperature and daily emergency ambulance calls described for Budapest (Páldy and Bobvos, 2011), a similar study was carried out for Vác. The number of daily emergency ambulance calls was significantly influenced by daily mean temperature in 2007 and The number of calls on days with higher mean temperature increased significantly compared to the mean 12.9 cases per day in 2007 and 14.7 cases per day in The highest number of daily calls 32 in 2007 and 39 in 2010 were registered during the third- level alert in both years. In 2007, a 62 percent increase in excess daily ambulance calls was registered during the second- level alert, and a 139 percent increase during the third- level alert, compared to cool days. Above the threshold of a daily mean temperature of 24 o C, the number of ambulance calls increased by 20 percent per 1 o C increase in temperature. According to the climate scenario, climate change will increase the number of ambulance calls by 84 percent on hot days (Páldy and Bobvos 2011; WHO BCA report). 53

92 Assessment of adaptive capacities in District XIII and Veszprém Aim of the pilot study Our aim was to investigate how health adaptation needs can be mainstreamed into city planning. We also hoped to share adaptation good practices feasible for municipalities with the help of the case studies undertaken in Veszprém and in Budapest s District XIII. Our specific task was to assess the adaptive capacities of hospitals and social- care institutions to the impacts of heat waves in the study areas. The assessment was carried out using questionnaires elaborated for the different types of institutions. The questions were related to the type of buildings, the level of insulation, the resence of air conditioning, and the existence and content of local heat wave plans. The questionnaires can be found in the annexes to the present paper. Based on the data obtained from the health impact assessment and the questionnaire survey carried out in the two urban settlements: special public health and adaptation problems were defined in the context of EU policies and Hungarian national legislation and the guidance issued by the WHO; and recommendations were proposed regarding the modification and amendment of preventive plans and measures. Analysis of the hospital questionnaires There are three hospitals in District XIII, two for adults and one for children. The hospital coded 32 has a high rate of air conditioning, with 64.6 percent of beds being in air- conditioned wards. In almost 100 percent of cases, beds occupied by high- risk patients are placed in air- conditioned wards. By contrast, in the hospital coded 34, only 1.4 percent of beds are in air- conditioned wards. One hospital reported that the air- conditioning system in the operating theatre does not meet technical requirements and is therefore not in use. In the hospital coded 32, the air conditioning is working; in hospital 34 there is no operating theatre; and in Veszprém there is no air conditioning. The number of beds occupied by chronically ill patients is high (16 percent), and there is no air conditioning. The hospital coded 33 has beds in air- conditioned wards: 38 percent of beds in air- conditioned wards are used for other types of care not indicated in the table. Beds in traumatology wards are not included in this group. Air conditioning in rooms used by hospital personnel also differs: in two hospitals there is air conditioning; in the hospital coded 34 approximately 10 percent of the rooms have air conditioning. In Veszprém, none of the staff rooms have air conditioning. 54

93 The situation in Veszprém needs to be addressed in the future, as only the beds in the intensive care unit are supplied with air conditioning (1.6 percent). Table 2: Proportion of hospital beds in air- conditioned wards, District XIII and Veszprém Code Total number of beds Number of beds with air- conditioning (AC) % Intensive care No. of beds No. of AC beds Traumatology Burns Toxicology Special care Chronic diseases No. of beds District XIII Veszprém 1, No. of AC beds No. of beds No. of AC beds No. of beds No. of AC beds No. of beds No. of AC beds No. of beds No. of AC beds The hospitals need further tools to improve protection against heat impacts. External shutters need to be installed, for example. Approximately half of the buildings are insulated. The building material used in District XIII is mainly brick, while in Veszprém it was defined as other material. Windows are triple glazed in only some of the buildings in the second hospital in District XIII. Indoor curtains and electric fans can also be used to keep the wards cool. Fans are available in two hospitals in District XIII and in Veszprém. The rate of availability of refrigerators for patients differs, but is very low. The measurement of indoor temperature is possible in only one of the District XIII hospitals and in Veszprém. Two hospitals out of the four have plans for heat waves. One hospital in District XIII has a very detailed heat wave plan, while in the second hospital the main guidelines have been formulated. Two hospitals did not declare the existence of a heat wave plan, although the major elements of such a plan were reported as existing measures. Two hospitals in District XIII reported that the number of staff is adjusted according to requirements during heat waves. One hospital reported that the menu is adjusted for periods of heat wave. Table 3: Proportion of major adaptive tools/measures in hospitals Heat wave plan Code Thermometer Thermometer in ward External shade Triple glazing 32 yes yes no no no no 33 no no no no yes no 34 no no in some buildings Veszprém yes no in some buildings Special menu in some buildings yes yes no no no 55

94 Table 4: Frequency of answers (%) to the questionnaire survey of social- care institutions, I District XIII Veszprém Number of institutions Mean number of clients Mean age of clients Building material brick concrete other Thickness of external walls 20 cm cm >30 cm Internal height of rooms 2.6 m m >3 m Ratio of window/wall surface in the rooms 25% % % % Is the building insulated? Triple glazing of windows Are there outer shades/blinds at the windows? Are there inner blinds, curtains at the windows? Is there air conditioning: in the sleeping/daily activity rooms? in common rooms? in rooms used by the personnel? Are there thermometers in the institution? Are there thermometers in the sleeping/activity rooms? Are there thermometers in the common rooms? Are there thermometers in the bathrooms? Table 4 covers the major characteristics of social- care institutions, which mainly provide daily care. This explains the high mean number of clients, especially in District XIII, where the mean age is higher. In District XIII there is one home for disabled people, one institution where disabled people are employed, three social- care centres, one day- time shelter for homeless people, and 10 clubs for elderly people. 56

95 In Veszprém, there are four institutions where clients can stay during the day (or where they can live). These institutions provide temporary homes for families in crisis and for homeless and disabled people. There is also one residential home for elderly people. There are four day centres (clubs) for elderly people, one day- care centre for homeless people, and one institution comprising several buildings where disabled people are employed. In terms of building material, 81 percent of the institutions are built of brick in District XIII, while in Veszprém the proportions of brick and concrete buildings are similar (40 percent). The buildings have thicker walls (mainly in the brick buildings) in District XIII: over 80 percent have walls thicker than 30 cm. The internal height of the rooms is also greater in District XIII. On the other hand, the ratio of window to wall surface in rooms is greater in Veszprém. The proportion of insulated buildings is over 50 percent in District XIII, but only 33 percent in Veszprém. None of the buildings in District XIII have external shutters, although 20 percent of buildings in Veszprém do. Triple- glazed windows are mentioned in only one institution in District XIII. Air conditioning is fitted in 31 percent of buildings in District XIII, while in Veszprém it is present in up to five rooms in the home for elderly people. In District XIII, the common rooms are air conditioned, and in Veszprém there is some air conditioning in the working area as well. Living space/work rooms are on the whole not oriented to the south or south east in District XIII, with the exception of one institution, where clients spend their time in south- facing rooms. In one temporary home in Veszprém, 25 percent of clients are living in an attic. Approximately 50 percent of the rooms face south, and this is also true of the residential home. code Temporary homes in Veszprém No of sleeping person/ room room person person/ 1st floor 2nd floor attic /room room person /room No of rooms facing South, South East No resident No resident No resident No resident No resident It can be concluded that the buildings are subject to considerable heat exposure, and that their heat resilience should be enhanced in the future. person/ room 22/a total mean Residential homes for elderly

96 Table 5: Frequency of answers (%) to the questionnaire survey of social- care institutions, II District XIII Veszprém Heat- wave plan Cooling of living areas Summer blankets Summer clothing Control over time spent outdoors More frequent showers More frequent changes of bed linen More liquid supplied More frequent measuring of body temperature More frequent medical visits More frequent control of patients taking medication Storage of medicines in refrigerators Preparation of special menus Occupational safety measures: More liquid supplied District XIII has a heat- wave plan issued by the municipality. The institutions in Veszprém have no such plan, although some elements of a heat- wave plan are applied. No special actions were mentioned in Veszprém, although in District XIII there was mention of 12 percent more medical visits and 6 percent more frequent monitoring of body temperature. Increased liquid supply was mentioned in each institution, and this represented the major element of occupational safety measures. In District XIII, a special menu was prepared in 100 percent of the institutions, and in Veszprém in 63 percent. The heat- wave plan should focus primarily on cooling the living areas/work rooms, achieved by indoor curtains. Further steps include controlling the indoor temperature and controlling clients body temperature. Concern for the health status of clients during heat waves should be better organised. More frequent medical visits can also be suggested in both places, together with greater care given to clients taking special medication. 58

97 Table 6: Frequency of answers (%) to the questionnaire survey of child- care institutions, I District XIII Veszprém Number of institutions Mean number of children Building material brick gas silicate concrete Thickness of the external walls 20 cm cm >30 cm Internal height of rooms 2.6 m m >3 m Ratio of window to wall surface in rooms 25% % % % Building insulation External shutters/blinds at the windows of rooms Air conditioning in the institution Triple- glazed windows Trees providing shade Internal blinds Thermometers Fans There are 30 child- care institutions in District XIII and 20 in Veszprém. The building material used is mainly brick and concrete in District XIII, while in Veszprém 60 percent of the buildings are made of gas silicate. External walls are mostly between 21 and 30 cm thick in District XIII, but less than 20 cm in 13 percent of the institutions. In Veszprém, 50 percent of the external walls are in the thicker category. The internal height of the rooms is >2.7 m in 73 percent of buildings in District XIII, but lower in 35 percent of the buildings in Veszprém. There is a higher ratio of window to wall surface (>75 percent) in 30 percent of buildings in Veszprém, while in Distrtict XIII this higher rate can be found in 37 percent of buildings. More than half the buildings in District XIII are insulated, but only 5 percent in Veszprém. The proportion of institutions with external shutters is 40 percent in District XIII and 60 percent in Veszprém. There is air conditioning in 6.6 percent of the institutions in District XIII, but no air- conditioning systems in Veszprém. None of 59

98 the institutions in either location have triple- glazed windows. There are trees around the buildings in a high percentage of institutions (80 percent in each location). Inner blinds or curtains are fitted in almost all the institutions, as are thermometers, while half of the institutions have fans. Table 7: Frequency of answers (%) to the questionnaire survey of child- care institutions, II District XIII Veszprém Heat- wave plan Cooling rooms for children Outdoor activity during heat wave/uv alert Special warnings during alerts Multiple advice given during alerts No outdoor activity Outdoor shelter/shade provided Clothes made from natural materials Outdoor water tap, shower or misting system Paddling pools Increased liquid supply Tap water only Preparation of a special menu In District XIII, 80 percent of institutions reported having a heat wave plan, and half the institutions in Veszprém reported having a plan. The major element in the heat wave plan is cooling the rooms used by children: this was reported by almost all institutions. Outdoor activities were reported as being restricted in a very high percentage of institutions. Some units mentioned that they allowed children to stay outdoors only between and Staff issued warnings to children during heat wave and UV alerts: in the two locations, 40 and 90 percent of responses mentioned multiple advice (e.g. not to stay in the sun, to wear a hat, not to run about too much). Day- care centres requested parents to bring in light clothing made of natural fibres in almost all cases. The majority of day- care centres have outdoor shelter/shade. Water taps, showers and misting systems were available in 80 percent of institutions in District XIII and 50 percent of institutions in Veszprém. In the latter location, half the day- care centres still have paddling pools for children that are not approved by the public health services due to the risk of infections. Almost all institutions mentioned the possibility of increased water supply. In one institution in District XIII, each child brings in an individually marked water flask. The flasks are kept in the shade, and the children are advised to drink regularly. In District XIII, mainly tap water is supplied for drinking, while in Veszprém mineral water and fruit juice were also mentioned. A special menu is prepared in 43 percent of institutions in District XIII and 67 percent in Veszprém. Analysing the results of the surveys, we can conclude that short- term adaptation measures are implemented in the majority of institutions during heat waves. These include encouraging liquid 60

99 intake; restricting children s outdoor activities in kindergartens; giving behavioural advice; and providing cooling in the form of shade, water taps and misting systems. Some of these measures are also implemented in institutions for elderly and disabled people. However, the health status of adults needs more active monitoring, as clients are mainly people at higher risk: homeless people who suffer from specific problems (chronic diseases, alcoholism, mental health issues, etc.), disabled people who work in these institutions, and elderly people who attend clubs. Care providers should be aware of the possible impacts of heat on health, the symptoms of heat- related illnesses, and appropriate treatment. Symptoms, medication and the active control of body temperature as an important indicator of current health status should ideally be monitored in these institutions. Menus should also be adjusted according to the season in order to increase liquid intake. Hospitals also need a well- designed heat- wave plan (found in only one institution at present). A reduction in heat- related symptoms can be achieved by relatively simple patient care measures. The medium- and long- term adaptation capacity of these institutions presents a greater challenge. The buildings are made partly of brick and concrete. Approximately half of the buildings are insulated, and the majority lack the necessary equipment for cooling. Most do not have triple- glazed windows, which would be extremely important in institutions in which the window to wall ratio is >50 percent and the windows face south or south east. External shutters or shades (mainly canvas) are installed mainly in kindergartens: only one hospital and none of the social care institutions reported having external shades. Only kindergartens reported having trees around the buildings. Fans were reported in some cases, and although their use has disadvantages they can provide a temporary cooling solution. Air conditioning is available only in some cases in the social care and child- care institutions. Air conditioning is installed in two hospitals, although not in wards where chronically ill patients are treated. Recommendations Based of the findings, further measures can be recommended for the different types of institutions. Hospitals Prepare/update heat- wave plans and control and document the implementation of measures. Install air conditioning in more wards. Bearing in mind the EC Horizon 2020 initiative, energy- efficient solutions based on renewable energy should be preferred. Structural and Cohesion Funds may be useful in terms of possible solutions. 61

100 Install tools for lowering heat exposure (e.g. outdoor shade, blinds, trees, plants to cool walls, triple- glazed windows). Social care institutions Prepare/update heat- wave plans and control and document the implementation of measures. Insulate buildings, install shades, and explore the possibility of air conditioning. Monitor the actual health status of elderly people (medical care, active prevention of heat- related symptoms). Prepare a special menu during heat waves. Provide targeted advice in terms of daily routine, behaviour, clothing, liquid intake and time spent outdoors. Child- care institutions Increase the heat resilience of buildings. Ensure appropriate ventilation, insulation, cooling and air conditioning. Update heat- wave plans. Prepare appropriate plans for children s daily activities. Install suitable devices for protection from heat outdoors. Prepare a special menu during heat waves. In order to help with the preparation and updating of short- and medium- term heat- wave plans, the relevant advice issued by the WHO for different target groups should be consulted (Public Health Advice on Preventing Health Effects of Heat: New and Updated Information for Different audiences data/assets/pdf_file/0007/147265/heat_information_sheet.pdf) 62

101 For health authorities, medical professionals and care providers: Risk factors for heat- related illness and mortality In addition to information for the general public, targeted information should be provided for those population groups at high risk of health impacts related to heat- waves: elderly and very old people, and people with chronic diseases and their care givers. This information should include: practical tips (on how to keep cool and well hydrated) information on first aid treatment; and important contact details for social and medical services, including ambulance services. Risk factors Mechanism Selected evidence Individual (demographic) Elderly and very old Female and elderly or very old Changes in thermoregulation, renal function and health status, reduced water intake and reduced physical ability Differences in thermophysiological functioning + above Flynn, McGreevy & Mulkerrin, 2005 Kenny et al., 2010 Kovats & Hajat, 2008 Schifano et al., 2009 Single and elderly or very old Infants Health Acute health conditions Chronic health conditions Medication use Being confined to bed Being hospitalised Living in an institution (e.g. nursing home) Social isolation + above Thermoregulation immature, smaller body mass and blood volume, high dependency level, dehydration risk in case of diarrhoea Acute renal failure, cerebrovascular disease, heart failure, pneumonia and infectious diseases impair thermoregulatory responses during heat waves Reduced thermoregulatory ability, high risk of acute events, exacerbations of disease, reduced ability to care for oneself and take appropriate protective action and/or seek assistance Cardiovascular and respiratory diseases and their treatment are of highest priority (see information sheets on health conditions and adverse effects of medication) Interaction with physiological response to heat and hydration status, concurrent chronic diseases Poor health status, reduced mobility and high dependency level Poor health status, lack of air conditioning High care dependency and poor health status; rooms and spaces potentially too hot Falk, 1998 Tourneux et al., 2009 Tsuzuki- Hayakawa & Tochihara, 1995 Fouillet et al., 2006 Semenza et al., 1999 Stafoggia et al., 2008 Bouchama et al., 2007 Kovats & Hajat, 2008 Kenny et al., 2010 Schifano et al., 2009 Bouchama et al., 2007 Hajat, O Connor & Kosatsky, 2010 Bouchama et al., 2007 Stafoggia et al., 2008 Stafoggia et al., 2006 Kovats & Hajat,

102 Information for managers of retirement and care homes Monitor indoor temperatures. Provide at least one cool room (e.g. an air- conditioned room with a temperature below 25 C. Move residents to this cool area for several hours each day. Ask GPs to review the clinical management of residents at risk (e.g. due to chronic disease). Monitor residents fluid intake. Offer non- alcoholic, unsweetened beverages. Monitor residents body temperature, pulse rate, blood pressure and hydration. Monitor residents closely for any early signs of heat illness and initiate appropriate treatment when needed. Inform and train staff and increase staffing levels if necessary. 64

103 For the general public and care home managers: Lowering indoor temperatures during hot weather Short- term measures for existing buildings Use thermometers to measure indoor temperatures Check the room temperature between 08:00 and 10:00, at 13:00 and at night after 22:00. The room temperature should not exceed 32 C during the day and 24 C during the night. Use night ventilation for passive cooling Close windows during the hottest part of the day Shade windows Reduce internal heat loads Conserve electricity Open all windows during the night and the early morning to make use of the night air to cool the home. Keep heat outside and cool air inside. Hang shades, drapes, awnings or blinds at windows that receive the morning or afternoon sun. Turn off artificial lighting and as many electrical devices as possible, but not the refrigerator. If your home has air conditioning, save any electricity not needed to keep you cool so that power remains available and the chance of a community-wide outage is reduced. Hang wet towels to cool the interior air Technical measures Increase external shading Use electric fans Use mobile evaporative coolers Use dehumidifiers Use local air conditioning Air humidity will increase at the same time. Fitting external shades to windows reduces solar heat gain; internal shading at windows is always advisable to prevent solar loads inside the room. Electric fans may provide some relief if temperatures are below 35 C. However, in temperatures above 35 C, fans may not prevent heatrelated illness. Additionally, fans can cause dehydration. It is advisable to place fans at a certain distance from the body, and not aimed directly at the body, and to have regular drinks. This is especially important for people who are confined to bed. The effect of evaporative coolers increases with the temperature and decreases with the relative humidity of the air. Reducing humidity can be useful in areas with high humidity but not very high temperatures. Air conditioners provide relief. If you are buying or installing air conditioning, choose a system that is as energy efficient as possible. Proper cleaning and maintenance are important in order to avoid health impacts. Be aware of the possibility of electricity outages in summer. It should be noted that air conditioning is inherently inequitable: it increases anthropogenic heat production and may increase the heat- related exposure of vulnerable people who have no access to it. Power outages may prevent the increased use of air conditioning during heat waves. Power stations may not function if there is no cooling water available. Air conditioning causes extra electric power demand. To reduce indoor temperature in a sustainable way, various medium- and long- term measures are available to improve heat reflection from the building surface (albedo) (see information sheet on measures in the built environment). 65

104 Annex 1 Questionnaire to assess the preparedness of hospitals prevention plans in the event of heat waves Name of institution. address:: identification code:.. Institution maintained by: state (1); church (2); other (3) Name of institution Description Number of beds Number of beds in air- conditioned wards Total number of beds intensive traumatology. of which burns toxicology observation (surgery, coronary, stroke) chronic 1. Building material: brick (1); concrete (2); prefabricated structure (3); other (4) 2. Is the building insulated? Yes (1); No (2) 3. Are there thermometers in the institution Yes (1); No (2) 66

105 4. Are there thermometers in the wards? Yes (1); No (2) 5. Are there thermometers in common spaces (visiting room, dining area)? Yes (1); No (2) 6. Are there outer shades/blinds at the windows of the wards? Yes (1); No (2) 7. Are any of the windows double glazed? Yes (1); No (2) 8. Are there interior blinds at the windows of the wards? Yes (1); No (2) 9. Are there fans in the institution? Yes (1); No (2) I0. Is there air conditioning in the operating theatre? Yes (1); No (2) 11. Is there air conditioning in staff rooms? Yes (1); No (2) 12. If yes, in how many rooms: total number of rooms: 13. How many refrigerators are available for patients by ward?. number.. capacity (in litres)/ward (number of beds ) 14. Is there a heat plan in the institution? Yes (1); No (2) If yes, what does it contain? 15. Special cooling of the wards Yes (1); No (2) 16. More frequent washing/showering of patients Yes (1); No (2) 17. More frequent changes of bed linen Yes (1); No (2) 18. More frequent measuring of body temperature Yes (1); No (2) 19. More liquid supplied (tea offered more often) Yes (1); No (2) 20. More infusion solution in reserve Yes (1); No (2) 21. More frequent visits to patients Yes (1); No (2) 22. More frequent control of patients on medication at special risk (2) Yes (1); No 23. Medicines stored in refrigerators Yes (1); No (2) 24. Special menus prepared Yes (1); No (2) 25. Cooling capacity of mortuary increased Yes (1); No (2) 67

106 26. Number of health- care personnel increased Yes (1); No (2) 27. Availability of sufficient technical personnel ensured Yes (1); No (2) 28- Occupational protection of personnel ensured Yes (1); No (2) 68

107 Annex 2 Questionnaire regarding heat wave plans for social care institutions Name of institution identification code Institution maintained by: municipality (1); church (2); state (3); other (4) 1. Number of clients: 2. Mean age of clients:. 3. Building material: brick (1); concrete (2); prefabricated structure (3); wood (4); stone (5); other (6) 4. Thickness of the external walls 5. Interior height of rooms Ratio of window to wall surface in bedrooms 25% (1); 50% (2); 75% (3); 100% (4) 7. Is the building insulated? Yes (1); No (2) 8. Are there external shades/blinds at the windows of the rooms? Yes (1); No (2) 9. Are any of the windows double glazed? Yes (1); No (2) 10. Are there interior blinds at the windows of the bedrooms? Yes (1); No (2) 11.. Total number of bedrooms :./ number of people 10. Number of bedrooms on first floor /.. number of people 11. Number of bedrooms on second floor. /.. number of people 12. Number of bedrooms in the attic.../. number of people 13. Number of bedrooms facing south or south east.. /...number of people in these rooms 14. Are there thermometers in the institution? Yes (1); No (2) 15. Are there thermometers in the bedrooms? Yes (1); No (2) 16. Are there thermometers in common areas (visiting room, dining room)? Yes (1); No (2) 17. Are there thermometers in the bathrooms? Yes (1); No (2) 69

108 18. Are there fans in the institution? Yes (1); No (2) 19. Is there air conditioning in the institution? Yes (1); No (2) 20. How many bedrooms are fitted with air conditioning? How many common rooms are fitted with air conditioning? How many staff rooms are fitted with air conditioning? 23. How many refrigerators are available for patients? Does the institution have a heat wave plan? Yes (1); No (2) If yes, what does it contain? 25. Special cooling of the wards Yes (1); No (2) 26. Summer bedding Yes (1); No (2) 27. Summer clothing made of light, natural material (cotton) Yes (1); No (2) 28. More frequent washing/showering of patients Yes (1); No (2) 29. More frequent changes of bed linen Yes (1); No (2) 30. Control over amount of time spent outdoors Yes (1); No (2) 31. More frequent measuring of body temperature Yes (1); No (2) 32. More liquid supplied (water/tea offered more often) Yes (1); No (2) 33. More frequent medical visits to patients Yes (1); No (2) 34. More frequent control of patients on medication with special risks (2) Yes (1); No 35. Medicines stored in refrigerators Yes (1); No (2) 36. Special menus prepared Yes (1); No (2) 37.- Occupational protection of personnel ensured Yes (1); No (2) 70

109 Annex: List of medicines with increased risks of adverse effects during heat waves: diuretics, purgatives, sedatives, hypnotics, analgesics, cough medicines and antihypertensives, drugs for epilepsy, Parkinson s disease, asthma and diseases of the thyroid gland and adrenal gland antiemetics and drugs to reduce cholesterol and lipids 71

110 Annex 3 Questionnaire regarding heat wave plans for day- care centres and kindergartens Name of institution identification code.. Institution maintained by: municipality (1); church (2); state (3); other (4) 1. Number of children attending the institution: 2. Building material: brick (1); concrete (2); prefabricated structure (3); other (4) 3. Thickness of external walls 4. Interior height of rooms Ratio of window to wall surface 25% (1); 50% (2); 75% (3); 100% (4) 6. Is the building insulated? Yes (1); No (2) 7. Are there external shades/blinds at the windows? Yes (1); No (2) 8. Are any of the windows double glazed? Yes (1); No (2) 9. Are there trees providing shade around the building? Yes (1); No (2) 10. Are there interior blinds at the windows? Yes (1); No (2) 11. What proportion of rooms have thermometers? 100% (1); 50% (2); 0% (3) 12. Are there fans in the institution? Yes (1); No (2) 13. Is there air conditioning in the institution? Yes (1); No (2) 14. During heat waves/uv alerts, are children allowed to do outdoor activities? Yes (1); No (2) 15. If yes, do care givers warn children of the dangers of heat/uv radiation? Yes (1); No (2) 16. If yes, what advice is given? Stay out of the sun (1); Wear a hat (2); Don t run about too much (3) 17. How is increased liquid supply ensured? By providing: tap water (1); mineral water (2); tea (3); other (4) 18. Is there a plan in the event of heat waves and UV alerts? Yes (1); No (2) 72

111 If yes, what does it contain? 19. Special cooling for children s rooms Yes (1); No (2) 20 Clothes made of cotton provided/recommended Yes (1); No (2) 21. Hats/caps for outdoor activities provided/recommended Yes (1); No (2) 22. Outdoor shelter/shade provided Yes (1); No (2) 23. Outdoor activities controlled/restricted Yes (1); No (2) 24. Water tap/shower/outdoor misting system provided Yes (1); No (2) 25- Liquid supply increased Yes (1); No (2) 26. Special menu prepared Yes (1); No (2) 73

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116 Páldy, A. et al. (2005): The effect of temperature and heat waves on daily mortality in Budapest, Hungary, In: W. Kirch, B. Menne and R. Bertollini: Extreme weather events and public health responses. WHO Springer- Verlag, Berlin Heidelberg, pp Páldy, A. (2006): A hőségriasztás hazai tapasztalatai (National experiences of heat alerts). Budapesti Népegészségügy, 2, (In Hungarian) Páldy, A., J. Bobvos, A. Vámos, L. Gorove and M. Buranszki- Sallai (2007): Effect of Elevated Temperature on Daily Emergency Ambulance Calls: A Time Series Analysis in Budapest, Hungary Central European Journal of Occupational and Environmental Medicine, 13 (2): Páldy, A. et al. (2008): A év néhány, az időjárás változékonysága szempontjából jelentősebb esemény környezetegészségügyi értékelése (Evaluation of some important events of 2007 related to weather variability from the viewpoint of environmental health). Éghajlati és agrometeorológiai tanulmányok 10 (Országos Meteorológiai Szolgálat Éghajlati Osztály), Budapest, (In Hungarian) Páldy, A. and J. Bobvos (2008): A évi magyarországi hőhullámok egészségi hatásainak elemzése előzmények és tapasztalatok (Evaluation of health impacts of heat waves of 2007 background and experiences). Klíma21 Füzetek, 52, (In Hungarian) Paldy, A. and J. Bobvos (2009): Impact of the Unusual Heatwave of 2007 on Mortality in Hungary. Epidemiology, 20 (6): S126 S127. doi: /01.ede Páldy, A., Cs. Nagy, A. Juhász, D. Apatini, A. Trájer and T. Málnási (2011): Környezet és egészség (Environment and health). In: Mária Kováts- Németh (ed.): Együtt a környezetért (Together for the environment). Palatia Nyomda és Kiadó Kft., Páldy, A., A. Juhasz, J. Bobvos and Cs. Nagy (2011): Modelling of the association of health impacts of exposure to heatwave and the effect modifiers at small area level in Hungary. ISEE 23rd Annual Conference, Barcelona September Páldy, A., J. Bobvos and E. Kiss (2011): A Klímaváltozás Kihívásai a Pármai Deklaráció megvalósításának követése és monitorozása (Challenges of climate change Follow- up and monitoring of the implementation of the Parma Declaration). Tanulmány (Climate and health risks and possibilities of adaptation in the city of Vác), WHO/BCA priority 4_2. Páldy, A. and J. Bobvos (2011a): A klímaváltozás egészségi hatásai. Sebezhetőség alkalmazkodóképesség (Health impacts of climate change: Vulnerability and adaptive capacity). In: P. Tamás and M. Bulla (ed.): Sebezhetőség és adaptáció. A reziliencia esélyei. MTA Szociológiai Intézet, Budapest, 2011/a Páldy, A. and J. Bobvos (2011b): Predicted Impact of Climate Change on Daily Excess Mortality and Emergency Ambulance Calls, and Central European Journal of Occupational and Environmental Medicine, 17 (1):

117 Páldy, A. and J. Bobvos (2012): Impact of heat waves on excess mortality in 2011 and 2012 in Hungary. Central European Journal of Occupational and Environmental Medicine, 18 (1): Panagiotakos, D.B., C. Chrysohoy and C. Pitsavos (2004): Climatological variations in daily hospital admissions for acute coronary syndromes. International Journal of Cardiology, 94, Parry, M.L. et al. (2007): Technical Summary. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, ed. M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, Pascal, M. et al. (2006): France s heat health watch warning system. International Journal of Biometeorology, 50, Pirard, P. et al. (2005): Summary of the mortality impact assessment of the 2003 heat wave in France. Eurosurveillance, 10, Reid, C.E., M.S. O Neill, C.J. Gronlund, S.J. Brines, D.G. Brown, A.V. Diez- Roux and J. Schwartz (2009): Mapping Community Determinants of Heat Vulnerability. Environmental Health Perspectives 117: doi: /ehp Robine, J.M. et al. (2008): Death toll exceeded 70,000 in Europe during the summer of Les Comptes Rendus/Serie Biologies, 331, Schwartz, J., J. Samet and J.A. Patz (2004): The effects of temperature and humidity on hospital admissions for heart disease. Epidemiology, 15, Semenza, J.C., C.H. Rubin, K.H. Falter, J.D. Selanikio, W.D. Flanders, H.L. Howe and J.L. Wilhelm (1996): Heat- related deaths during the July 1995 heat wave in Chicago. New England Journal of Medicine, 335, Semenza, J.C. et al. (2011): Climate change and climate variability: Personal motivation for adaptation and mitigation. Environmental Health, 10: 46 Smoyer- Tomic, K. et al. (2001): Beating the heat: Development and evaluation of a Canadian hot weather health response plan. Environmental Health Perspectives, Vol. 109, No. 12, December, pp Torma, Cs. J. Bartholy, Z. Pongrácz, Z. Barcza, E. Coppola and F. Giorgi (2008): Adaptation and validation of the RegCM climate model for the Carpathian Basin. Időjárás, 112, Yohe, G. and R.S.J. Tol (2002): Indicators for Social and Economic Coping Capacity- Moving towards a Working Definition of Adaptive Capacity. Global Environmental Change, 12,

118 Vanhems, P., L. Gambotti and J. Fabry (2003): Excess rate of in- hospital death in Lyons, France, during the August 2003 heat- wave. New England Journal of Medicine, 348, WHO (2010): Protecting health in an environment challenged by climate change: European Regional Framework for Action. WHO Regional Office for Europe, Copenhagen, Denmark. Available at: data/assets/pdf_file/0005/95882/parma_eh_conf_edoc06rev1.pdf WHO. Public health advice on preventing health effects of heat data/assets/pdf_file/0007/147265/heat_information_sheet.pdf WHO (2010): Overview of the health- related indicators of global climate change proposed for the implementation in ENHIS under the CEHAPIS project. Indicators by DPSEEA element (Annex 4). In: Tools for the monitoring of Parma Conference commitments. WHO Meeting Report, Bonn, Germany. November 25 26, p 27. ( data/assets/pdf_file/0019/134380/e94788.pdf) 80

119 Urban Spatial Planning in the Context of Adaptation to the Impacts of Climate Change Part of the project A Structured Network for integration of Climate Knowledge into Policy and Territorial Planning (ORIENTGATE) Authors: Čedo Maksimović, Ranko Božović, Branka Živković Date: 10/01/2014

120 Urban Spatial Planning in the Context of Adaptation to the Impacts of Climate Change Table of Contents 1. Introduction 2. Conventional approach to spatial planning 2.1. Conventional approaches and tool 2.2. Shortcomings and the need for change 3. New challenges and adaptation to Climate Changes (CC) and variability of extremes 3.1. The issues of CC and variability of extremes affecting urban life 3.2. Challenges and their quantification (vulnerability to urban assets and people) Vulnerability audit Modeling and calibration of the existing status and quantification of the improvement measures City vulnerability audit indicator examples 3.3. Needs for reduction of vulnerability (increase of resilience) 4. New paradigm in adaptation to CC in Blue Green Dream projects approach 4.1. Problems identification (Vulnerability audit) Climate Biodiversity Energy production and consumption Water supply and sanitation Rainfall, runoff and urban flooding Hydrogeology Rivers, urban streams, lakes, ponds and water quality issues Trees and woodlands Urban green spaces Soil and urban agriculture Spatial development Buildings Traffic pollution Heat island phenomenon Economy Health issues Protecting the population 4.2. BGD paradigm and its impact on spatial planning 4.3. Spatial planning and integrated modelling of ecosystems performance indicators interaction (hand in hand) 5. Tools supporting planners and decision makers in adopting innovative solutions 6. Interactions with stakeholders (SH) in Veszprem 6.1. Stakeholder s view on the issues and the needs for solutions (gathered in the meeting on the 2 nd October 2013) 6.2. Potentials for Veszprem to become an exemplar of innovative practice for more detailed analysis, classification, quantification and tackling the critical issues. 2

121 Urban Spatial Planning in the Context of Adaptation to the Impacts of Climate Change 6.3. Suggested follow-up (detailed study) resources and capacity building needs and implementation methodology 7. Conclusions and the way forward 8. Examples of adaptation in the world (Annex) 3

122 Urban Spatial Planning in the Context of Adaptation to the Impacts of Climate Change 1. Introduction This report is produced in accordance with the Term of reference of the Contract on the project: Lot 1: Urban Spatial Planning in the Context of Adaptation to the Impacts of Climate Change conducted between the Regional Environmental Centre (REC), Budapest and ICCI Ltd London. The work done is described in the document A Structured Network for integration of Climate Knowledge into Policy and Territorial Planning (ORIENTGATE) Terms of reference for a consultant Title: Urban Spatial Planning in the Context of Adaptation to the Impacts of Climate Change. Work Package 6: Urban Adaptation and Public Health According to this document: The stakeholders of the adaptation process on the municipal and county level in Veszprem decided that learning from other practitioners and experts experience will be beneficial for them. They prioritized several sectors, inter alia urban spatial planning. The scoping study on the urban spatial planning in the context of adaptation to the effects climate change with the following tasks: 1. To summarize: the reasons why the spatial planning can become a powerful tool for urban adaptation in the upcoming decades 2. To list the highlights of adaptation activities carried out in the urban environment around the World (example: new building code in Bologna, Italy, or pilot project of the Green Roof in Paris, France); 3. To list models, methodologies, and other instruments of the decision making (example, GIS maps) which can assist a municipal decision maker in her mid- and ling-term planning activities. There should be indications what kind of resources (purchase of software, data collection, human capital, and other resources) should be utilized to apply the mentioned decision making instruments 4. To send a representative to participate in the stakeholder consultation on 2 October 2013 in Veszprem and assist the work package leader to facilitate the discussions on the topic of urban spatial planning as adaptation tool. The representatives of the ICCI Ltd Mr. Ranko Božovic Dipl Ing. Mech and Ms Branka Živković Dipl.Ing. Arch participated in the stakeholders consultations event held o 2 nd October 2013 in Veszprem and presented the basics of the project Blue Green Dream which is used as a background concept of this project. They took part in discussions on the topic and assisted the work package leader to facilitate the discussions on the topic of urban spatial planning as adaptation tool. In this way the item 4 of the Contract is fulfilled. In the text that follows presented are the items 1, 2 and 3. 4

123 Urban Spatial Planning in the Context of Adaptation to the Impacts of Climate Change 2. Conventional approach to spatial planning 2.1. Conventional approaches and tools Conventional method of spatial/urban planning and designing for both, new developments and retrofitting the existing ones in which, in most cases all infrastructure assets and eco system services are analyzed separately is facing significant challenges. Despite the efforts to support designing places, evidence show that we are not doing enough. Developments of high standard and quality urban areas resilient to negative impacts of climate change are not yet the norm. In the UK National Housing Audits 1 have found that only 5% of developments in some regions, could be classified as very good; quality urban design. Only 13% were good and, more worryingly, 29% were characterized as poor and should not have been given planning permission. It is clear that despite increasing support and skills expectations are not met yet. One of the biggest issues in up to date practice is compartmentalization of professional disciplines carried out by particular specialists such as: traffic engineers, water engineers, energy engineers, chartered surveyor, architects, landscape architects, planners and alike. This means that full range of professional skills working and challenging each other, producing a single cohesive product to which all are committed. On the other hand, framework of construction industry has to be reviewed. Urban design draws together many strands of placemaking-environmental responsibility, social equity and economic viability. We have become entangled in a system which produces developments, but not places. Key aspects of urban design are to create place for people, enrich the existing places making connections between urban areas. Also, design must be economically viable and climate (environmental) adaptive. Description of what environmental - sustainable design 2 should be as follows: Active, inclusive and safe fair, tolerant and cohesive with local culture and community activities; Well run participation, representation and leadership; Environmentally sensitive provide places for people to live that are considerate of the environment (i.e. environment friendly); Well designed and built featuring quality buildings in natural environment; Well connected with good transport services and communication linking people to jobs, schools, health and other services, preferably within walking distances as much as possible; Thriving with a flourishing and diverse local economy;. Well served with public, private, community and voluntary services that are appropriate to people s needs and accessible to all; Fair for everyone including those in other communities, now and in the future. 1 Housing Audit: Assessing the design quality of new housing in the East Midlands, 2007 CABE 2 Department for Communities and Local Governments,

124 Urban Spatial Planning in the Context of Adaptation to the Impacts of Climate Change By creating places which will last, need for replacement or demolition is reduced. By combining well-established principles of urban planning 3 with a growing understanding of new technologies we can deliver even better places for future generation. To make sustainable urban design, architects/planners have to take into account: Near-zero carbon- reducing energy use; Near zero waste; Sustainable transport; Local and sustainable materials; Local and sustainable food; Sustainable water; Natural habitats and wildlife; Culture and heritage; Equity and fair trade; Health and happiness and Livability. Three main stages of design process and brining the assets to final use accepted by practice are 1) Conceptual design, 2) Final design and development and 3) Realization and maintenance. In many cases the main problem is that these stages have been separated and non-consistent. Architects, urban planners are involved in concept design, and engineers, modelers, economists, ecologist, water managers, are involved in the Final design and development and realization stage. According to the concept of the Blue Green Dream project 4 all parts of the design process especially the planning phase from the scratch, should be merged with comprehensive integrated parametric design. This innovative concept is described in what follows Shortcomings of the current practices and the need for change There are two important factors which create a lot of problems in present day urban areas. These factors affecting urban planning need to be accounted for. These are: climate change and extreme weather variability and urbanization. These impacts are briefly described as follows: a. Impacts of climate change and extreme weather variability Urban environment is a multiplier of the impacts of climate change in a number of sectors and ecosystem services, including public health, energy demand, energy consumption, and urban biodiversity. Although increase on average global temperature is slow it is argued that it is responsible for significant increase of weather extremes such as Wet weather - heavy storms; Dry weather droughts and Heat waves and cold weather spells. 3 Principles such as mix of use and users, plenty of public space, combination of w ide streets and mew s provide parking space that doesn t dominate street view, etc

125 Urban Spatial Planning in the Context of Adaptation to the Impacts of Climate Change The most common weather (climate) variables impacting on urban environment are air temperature, precipitation (rainfall) and water level in see and rivers. Being stochastic in nature they are characterized by trend of their mean value and extremes represented by standard deviation. As shown in Fig 1 there is no agreement among the predictions of the long term changes of mean values of air temperature; different predicting that it may rise between C and 4 0 C by the end of the century. However, as experienced all over the world extremes of both air temperature and precipitation are increasing in both magnitude and durations, causing inter alia more severe droughts and all sorts of floods (pluvial, fluvial, coastal and groundwater). Multiple water usage as pursued by the Blue Green Solutions are aimed at reducing vulnerability of urban areas to these long term climate changes and variability of extremes. Fig 1. Predicted global surface warming ( 0 C) with the trend of variability of extremes of rainfall and air temperature superimposed (extremes not to scale) According to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC, the regions of Southern Europe and South Eastern Europe are the most vulnerable in Europe to the impacts of climate change. Within the above context there are shortcomings detrimental to human wellbeing and eco systems: a. Even there are numerous studies related to the climate change mitigation, there is no systematic and properly supported analysis of planning and construction methodologies that should be adopted as a remedy for climate change impacts. These methodologies are lacking in two major domains, existing cities and new cities or parts of the city. b. Understanding of how development planners incorporate information about climate variability and change into their decisions is limited. c. Existing cities there is no practical city audit system in place to expose vulnerability and propose remedial measures d. New Master planning there is no systematic analysis of climate change consequences that are adaptable to certain location and should be incorporated in the planning documentation. 7

126 Urban Spatial Planning in the Context of Adaptation to the Impacts of Climate Change e. There are a significant number of barriers for the implementation of climate change adaptation measures (current legislation, financial sources, stakeholder s interests, and technical problem.) b. Fast urbanization Today some 50% of the world s population, or 3.5bn people, live in cities (UN, 2010), but between now and 2050 the world urban population is expected to increase by 84%, to 7.0bn. The concentration of such huge populations in cities have substantial implications for the world in terms of environmental impact, resource depletion, deteriorating ecosystems and climate change and presents huge challenges in meeting the goal of sustainable development (WBCSD, 2010). At the same time, cities are responsible for some 75% of global energy consumption and 80% of greenhouse gas emissions (United Nations, 2007). This impact is part of what has been termed by some as the anthropogenic (Hodson and Marvin, 2010), which suggests that we have entered a new era (which started with the industrial revolution) when human activities have had a significant global impact on the Earth s ecosystems. (T. Dixon, (2011) Sustainable Urban Development to 2050: Complex Transitions in the Built Environment of Cities, Oxford Brookes University). Fast urbanization is demonstrated by continuous migration of rural population to urban areas causing increase of the pressure onto urban infrastructure and its ecosystem services. This entails number of negative consequences, major ones being lack of proper planning and loss of green spaces. Standard urban planning is usually done by different specialists without analyzing mutual interactions of different ecosystem services and of the proposed solutions for various parts of the project. Only few interactions between different project components are occasionally being considered. By failing to analyze and quantify the above interactions, the project often comes up with the solutions which do not provide adequate comfort and do not meet sustainability criteria. To mention a few, the assets are often energy inefficient; do not provide optimal protection against air pollution, noise and urban heat islands. They do not make best use of the locally available resources for recycling (water for example) There is a need for change of the existing planning and design practices. According to BGD paradigm, BG Solutions are implements in decentralized fashion (many elements all over the place). All possible interactions between urban settlement s components need to be modeled and the best possible (optimized) solution proposed for the final design. This should preferably be done through active integrated design and modelling process characterized by: Interaction between urban solutions/ecosystem services, greenery, water cycle, renewables, efficient building and pollutions are systematically analyzed (modeled with the most recent software systems); Improvement of each above component s efficiency is simulated for different design and operating conditions; Influences between above components are quantified (technical and financial). Quantification is done for the standard operating conditions as well as for the extreme natural events; 8

127 Urban Spatial Planning in the Context of Adaptation to the Impacts of Climate Change Quantified influences are transformed in to proposals/instructions that will inform design process towards the sustainability and efficiency goals. 9

128 Urban Spatial Planning in the Context of Adaptation to the Impacts of Climate Change 3. New challenges and adaptation to Climate Changes (CC) and variability of extremes 3.1. The issues of Climate Changes and variability of extremes affecting urban life Global climate change brings major implications for global health and nutrition with impact on food security, access to clean water and sanitation, and the threat of an increased number of natural disasters. The most probable changes in this century are an average sea level rise of 85 centimeters, coastal erosion, wetter and colder winters with expected higher river discharge, warmer and dryer summers, more participation in shorter periods and heavy showers. Global average temperature is predicted to increase between C and C by the end of this century 5 which will lead to extremes in hydrological cycle, such as floods and droughts. Evidence is mounting that such changes in broadscale climate system may already harm human health, including mortality and morbidity from extreme heat, cold, drought or storms, changes in air and water qualities; changes in the ecology of the infectious diseases. 6 The most striking recent example of this was the heat wave in 2003 (average temperature C above normal lead to approximately 22,000 to 45,000 heat-related deaths across Europe). This only shows that future brings more frequent and /or more severe heat waves. Similarly, cold weather spells combined with strong winds such as the one that occurred in Hungary in winter 2013 and the one taking place in USA and Canada just as this report is being finished (January 2014), claimed to be the most severe in the last 2 centuries are very likely to take place more frequently, to last longer and to be more severe all over the world Challenges and their quantification (vulnerability to urban assets and people) The Blue Green Dream (BGD) project offers new technologies (BG Solutions - BGS) for efficient planning and management of the urban environment: one that maximizes ecosystem services minimizes negative environmental impacts and increases the cities capacity to cope with changing climate, extreme weather conditions, demographic and socio-economic conditions. The other examples of combination of natural or anthropogenic disasters and low resilience of urban (water and other) infrastructure system that took place during past couple of years includes the followings: a. Destruction of New Orleans, USA caused by hurricane Katrina; b. Fluvial floods in central Europe (more than once); c. Pluvial floods in 2007 in the UK; d. Combination of pluvial and fluvial flood in Huston, USA; e. Air pollution spells in Beijing and other cites in China and in Singapore; f. Earthquake and tsunami induced coastal flooding an destruction of the nuclear power plant in Fukushima; g. Tidal surge in New York; h. Combination of floods, earthquakes, typhoons, landsides in Taiwan; i. Flooding in Philippines etc. 5 Centre for Sustainability ad the Global Environment (SAGE), 6 Department of Protection of the human Environment, CH-1211, Switzerland 10

129 Urban Spatial Planning in the Context of Adaptation to the Impacts of Climate Change These examples demonstrate that our cities and infrastructure are very vulnerable to the events of this nature, they are not designed neither to sustain such events nor to absorb and dampen their negative impacts. Innovative, creative, nature inspired planning, construction and management methods are needed. Both strategic planning and better design methods are needed. The Blue Green (BG) system establishes the list of models, methodologies, and other instruments of the decision making which can assist a municipal decision maker in his/her mid- and ling-term planning activities. The Key instruments are vulnerability audit and modeling & calibration Vulnerability audit A. The purpose of the vulnerability audit is to establish city vulnerability for each of the specified climate change indicators. Vulnerability audit should provide answers to: Which from the listed indicators is affecting our city; Why is it a problem; Parametric identification of each problem. BG team has adopted the approach that applies vulnerability analytic system in the following fields: Climate; Biodiversity; Energy production and consumption; Water resources and urban water systems; Hydrogeology; Storm water & flooding; Rivers / lakes water quality; Trees & woodlands; Urban green spaces; Soils and agriculture; Spatial development; Buildings; Traffic (air) pollution; Heat island phenomenon; Economy; Health issues and Protecting the population. B. The strategy is to Identify locally applicable indicators in order to perform the analysis of all climate change Indicators local applicability and establish the list of climate change indicators that are relevant (potentially applicable) for the vulnerability estimate for the particular location, in this case the city of Veszprem. (item 4.1 of the contract) C. City vulnerability audit procedure is defined in the following steps: 11

130 Urban Spatial Planning in the Context of Adaptation to the Impacts of Climate Change C.1Collection of local experience related to the climate change indicators and parameters. (consultations with city stakeholders). C.2 Analysis of local climate data during last years collection of evidence of increased frequency and severity of extreme events (storms, floods, droughts, and heat waves) associated with climate change accumulated over this period; C.3 List of adaptation activities already carried out in the city (of Veszprem); C.4 Climate change forecast for next 20 years; C.5 Development of the Audit plan based on collected data; C.6 Real time and spot measurements of relevant parameters; C.7 Use of satellite maps for the mapping of relevant indicators; C.8 Use of local (Hungarian) Met Service Study; C.9 Visualization (GIS mapping) of all findings and C.9 Ranking of all defined indicators. There is no ranking point list; the Blue Green strategy is purely practical: each quantified effect (indicator) and its impact should be discussed with local stakeholders. As a result, the ranking, based on effects (indicators) adverse effects, shall be jointly produced on the basis of these consultations Modeling and calibration of the existing status and quantification of the improvement measures In modeling and calibration of the existing status and quantification of the improvement measures BD procedure is as follows: A. Develop models to cover selected climate change indicators; B. Establish potential measures major urban indicators; 1. Heat island reduction; 2. CO 2 emission reduction; 3. Greenery quality and usability improvement; 4. Greenery spread mapping; 5. Storm water management & reduction of the flood risk; 6. Winds utilization for improved environmental conditions; 7. Traffic pollution reduction; C. Distinguish between passive and active components (Passive urban, water, greenery, renewable energy, buildings, pollution and conventional energy design) ( Active behavioral measures) D. Establish viability of potential measures constructability and financial effects; E. Define the viable / applicable measures in each domain analyzed; F. Define midterm / long term mitigation measures (activities) and G. Present the results in time and space in an easy to understand and visually attractive fashion City vulnerability audit indicator examples Table of Contents 1. Introduction 2. Conventional approach to Spatial Planning 2.1. Conventional approaches and tool 2.2. Shortcomings and the need for change 3. New challenges and adaptation to Climate Changes (CC) and variability 12

131 Urban Spatial Planning in the Context of Adaptation to the Impacts of Climate Change of extremes 3.1. The issues of CC an variability of extremes affecting urban life 3.2. Challenges and their quantification (vulnerability to urban assets and people) Vulnerability audit Modeling and calibration of the existing status and quantification of the improvement measures City vulnerability audit indicator examples and proper quantification of the results 3.3. Needs for reduction of vulnerability (increase of resilience) 4. New paradigm in adaptation to CC in Blue Green Dream projects approach 4.1. Problems identification (Vulnerability audit) Climate Biodiversity Energy production and consumption Water supply and sanitation Rainfall, Runoff and Urban Flooding Hydrogeology Rivers, urban streams, lakes, ponds and water quality issues Trees and woodlands Urban green spaces Soil and urban agriculture Spatial development Buildings Traffic pollution Heat island phenomenon Economy Health issues Protecting the population 4.2. BGD paradigm and its impact on spatial planning 4.3. Spatial planning and integrated modelling of ecosystems performance indicators interaction (hand in hand) 5. Tools supporting planners and decision makers in adopting innovative solutions 6. Interactions with stakeholders (SH) in Veszprem 6.1. Stakeholder s view on the issues and the needs for solutions (gathered in the meeting on the 2 nd October 2013) 6.2. Potentials for Veszprem to become an exemplar of innovative practice for more detailed analysis, classification, quantification and tackling the critical issues Suggested follow-up (detailed study) resources and capacity building needs and implementation methodology 7. Conclusions and the way forward 8. Examples of adaptation in the World (Annex) 13

132 Urban Spatial Planning in the Context of Adaptation to the Impacts of Climate Change Some examples of implementation of GIS based visualization are given in Fig 2 (presenting the results of simulation of impacts of winds) and Fig. 3. (presenting he comparison of satellite imagery and the modeling results of improvements) LUCIJA - SUMMER WINDS (BURA) LUCIJA - SUMMER WINDS (BURA) ONE BUILDING Fig.2 Lucija Impacts of summer wind Waste water materials ( heavy metal, cadmium, led,..) Optimal vegetation index present status (potential land use characteristics) Fig. 3 (a) Present status of waste water polluting material obtained by satellite mapping models and (b) Improved conditions - Optimal vegetation index impact of the implemented mitigation measures 14

133 Urban Spatial Planning in the Context of Adaptation to the Impacts of Climate Change 3.3. Needs for reduction of vulnerability (increase of resilience) and proper quantification of the results Once all the available data on vulnerability of urban areas are obtained, additional data acquired for model development and calibration, carefully analyzed and sorted, models developed and run it is possible to realize what is temporal and spatial extent of vulnerability related to each of its separate sources. These can include both natural and man-made (anthropogenic) ones. BG procedure requires not only the individual sources of vulnerability to be identified, mapped and quantified but also mutual interactions to be defined and the most relevant ones quantified. This is the first phase which should be followed by the second one in which these results are used for development of scenario for possible mitigation o negative impacts and development of passive and active measures for increase of resilience. This is crucial activity and it provides sense gives wait to overall planning. Analysis of the impacts of the measures proposed in the resilience increase is done in an iterative fashion, collaboration between planners and modellers in this phase is of h utmost importance, the best results are obtained in te creative interactions of these two teams. An example of such a team work is presented in the sequel and in Fig. 4. The example is a newly designed University campus in Zagreb, Croatia Built-up area m 2. Two scenaria analyzed and results obtained are: 1. Without the influence of greenery, modelled indoor temperature in the building would be 29.76ºC (figure on the left); 2. Simulated indoor temperature in the building with the influence of designed greenery (forest) around the buildings is 25.94ºC (figure on the right). Energy saving of 50 60% during extreme summer temperatures. Fig 4 Comparison of 2 solutions demonstrating the increased resilience to summer heat waves by proper planning of interactions of urban vegetation and buildings 15

134 Urban Spatial Planning in the Context of Adaptation to the Impacts of Climate Change 3. New paradigm in adaptation to CC in Blue Green Dream project s approach Based on the issues raised in the Chapter 3 it can be summarized that the Blue Green Dream (BGD) project offers a raft of innovative technologies (BG Solutions - BGS) for efficient planning and management of the urban environment. As a part of adaptation for climate changes BGD project deals with optimizing / maximizing performances of ecosystem services, minimizing negative environmental impacts and increasing cities capacity to cope with changing climate, extreme weather conditions, anthropogenic impacts, demographic and socio-economic conditions. The projects mission is to assist and enhance the relevant countries ministries to introduce BG technology and to design and build BG settlements to be better places. To achieve this goal it is essential to work with local academic and professional communities to assist them in mastering BGD technology and implementing it in the future projects. This includes two major groups of activities: a. Innovative strategic planning at the central, regional and local government levels for development of the national policy and drafting legal documents on innovative methods of planning, design, construction, maintenance and management of urban areas based on the BGD philosophy in order to achieve long term sustainability of the planned cities. b. Innovative spatial/urban planning of new cities (new developments) and retrofitting of the existing ones. Innovative planning is based on integrated planning and optimized modeling of interactions of urban functions and eco system services. Design of sustainable and smart cities based on the Blue Green Solutions is becoming a global trend and it is very likely that all countries and cities in the world will accept it one way or another. City of Veszprem can serve as a positive case study in the region Problems identification (Vulnerability audit) By performing this audit one aims at identifying the existing and future sources of vulnerability of human settlements (urban areas) relevant to climate change and at quantifying them. This first step (, identification and quantification of impacts) is the introduction to the systematic approach to vulnerability mitigation. BG Team has adopted the approach that applies vulnerability analytic system in the following fields: - Climate - Biodiversity - Energy production and consumption - Water supply - Hydrogeology - Rainfall, storm water runoff and flooding 16

135 Urban Spatial Planning in the Context of Adaptation to the Impacts of Climate Change - Rivers / lakes (water resources / quantity and quality) - Trees, woodland - Urban green spaces - Soils and agriculture - Spatial development - Buildings - Traffic pollution - Heat island phenomenon - Economy - Health issues - Civil protecting the population In the case of the City of Veszprem the aspects of the climate change indicators / effects presented in the section would apply Climate Climate change will very likely be associated the following changes: Increased frequency and amplitude of hot spells (very hot days and nights) and fewer very cold days with increased amplitude of temperature; Longer, more intense heat waves (the frequency, length and intensity of heat waves will very likely increase) over most of the land areas; The average maximum wind speed will increase; Increase in the number, duration and intensity of intensive storms; Temperature rise of 1 to 5 degrees Celsius over the next century; Cold days, cold nights and frost less frequent but higher magnitude over land areas; Changes in seasonal variations / periodicity, the number of windstorms is expected both to increase and intensify. The above list is subject to modifications depending on the location of the particular site Biodiversity Gradual replacement of urban green spaces by paved areas combined with the unfavorable trends in climate may bring about: Risk of significant biodiversity loss through species extinction in urban areas; Changes in access to living environment; Disruption to food chains and species loss. Some species are spreading, others are growing rarer or disappearing and this in turn has repercussions on others - consequences can be expected, especially for many plants and animals in urban areas. Lack of bees reduces pollination causing sever loss of biodiversity. BGD project is introducing a range of complementary measures which, if implemented systematically, can reverse this negative trend. Increase of BGD 17

136 Urban Spatial Planning in the Context of Adaptation to the Impacts of Climate Change conceptualized biodiversity can further increase beneficial effect on both urban economy and corporate wellbeing (Fig 5). Fig 5 Increased biodiversity as a part of integrated BG Solution Energy production and consumption Need for cooling and heating in all types of properties (residential, industrial and public) in urban areas will increase. The existing energy generation plants need to be upgraded and much wider varieties of energy sources and energy management will be needed. Blue Green solutions can significantly reduce the need for the heating and cooling through the natural processes such as evaporative cooling and vegetation controlled changes to be introduced Water supply and sanitation Water supply and sanitation are particularly vulnerable to possible climate changes: Depletion of ground water aquifers and surface water reservoirs and streams is likely to cause more frequent temporary regional and local shortages of drinking water and water for irrigation; Longer periods of drought may increase need for water consumption; Changes in catchment can cause deterioration of natural water quality; Significant changes in water availability for human consumption; agriculture and energy generation - disrupted water supplies through floods and droughts; Intensify the existing regional differences i n the amount of water available; 18

137 Urban Spatial Planning in the Context of Adaptation to the Impacts of Climate Change Lack of long term strategy for replacement of the demand driven concept with the demand management one can cause further problems in water supply; Particularly vulnerable are the incomplete systems in developing countries and informal settlements; Other changes may occur depending on the location. All the above problems call for urgent initiation of adaptation and mitigation measures. If they are carried out independently of the other measure integral costs can be significantly higher Rainfall, runoff and urban flooding Over-sealing resulting in the loss of green spaces of urban areas restricts infiltration of water into the ground and natural retention in free spaces causing significant increase of volume and peak flows in urban runoff. This is a main factor in increase of urban pluvial/surface and fluvial floods. Excess runoff water surcharges combined sewers, causing threat to human health, increase of CSO (Combined Sewer Overflows) frequency and volume of spills causing increased pollution and flood risk by urban streams. BGD paradigm offers consistent potential for significant mitigation of these problems and additionally to create new badly needed. water resources (Fig 6) which can enhance the resilience of urban areas to water shortage which may restrict further economic development of large areas primarily in the developing countries but also in highly developed areas like California. Fig 6 Integrated management of surface runoff as a part of integrated BGD based urban flood mitigation and improved water resources availability Hydrogeology Water quality of underground and surface water is at risk because intense rainfall and flooding could introduce pesticides, fertilizers, industrial chemicals 19

138 Urban Spatial Planning in the Context of Adaptation to the Impacts of Climate Change and pathogens from sewer systems and surface runoff into groundwater aquifers, lakes, urban streams and rivers. Changes in the annual distribution of rain and snow could lead to changes in groundwater levels and differences in flow rates. Hydrogeology features affect the ability of underground spaces to serve as energy storage and source of energy be it from the stored one or from the thermal regime under the natural conditions Rivers, urban streams, lakes, ponds and water quality issues Changes in the amount, intensity, frequency, and type of precipitation - widespread Increases in heavy precipitation have occurred, even in places where total rain amounts have decreased. Increases in heavy rainfall will contribute to increases in local flooding in urban catchments. Increase in droughts means that rivers and streams will receive less runoff and percolation water and can dry out. Intense rainfall causes combined sewer systems carrying domestic wastewater and runoff from sealed surfaces to overflow through CSO (Combined Sewer Overflows), thus polluting surface water bodies. Due to uncontrolled urbanization urban stream are losing space, life supporting capacity and aesthetic values. Warming of lakes and rivers causes decrease of their oxygen concentration generating stress to flora and fauna and easier separation of previously sediment attached pollutants, on higher temperatures Trees and, woodland Increased urbanization without proper space for trees and green areas increases risk of flooding and urban heat island, reduces breathing capacity and contributes to increase of air pollution and noise. Lack of trees reduces evaporative cooling and shading effects during hot summer months. Trees do not only need to be just planted, there is a need to plant them in a way which would guarantee their optimized use for several purposes. In addition to providing shade and evaporative cooling their optimized use can significantly improve thermal regime around and in the building, improving thus their energy efficiency. Furthermore, lack of greenery jeopardizes public health and may have other detrimental effects on urban metabolism Urban green spaces Depletion of greenery followed by increase of paved areas reduces infiltration and increases risk of flooding. 20

139 Urban Spatial Planning in the Context of Adaptation to the Impacts of Climate Change Extensive vegetation die-off can be caused either by gradual ground water depletion or by extended droughts which reduces availability of water watering and irrigation from regular water supply system. Loss of green spaces, loss of recreation areas increases exposure to urban heat island and reduces quality of life. Loss of diversified species green areas reduced the support to pollination which has detrimental effect on overall urban biodiversity Soil and urban agriculture Greenery depletion increases soil erosion caused enhancing thus sediment transport during storms, increasing migration of nutrients and pathogens and thus increases surface water pollution. Climate change is predicted to cause an increase in intense rainfall, and temperature especially its extreme values. If the bare soil is eroded by severe storms, this not only influences the nutrient and water cycles, but also has an impact on the millions of micro-organisms that are to be found in every handful of soil and hence on humus formation, carbon sequestration and overall loss of fertile layers (substrates). Loss of vegetation reduces the potential of soil to detoxicate and biodegrade pollutants brought by surface runoff and washoff. Global area affected by drought increase, climate change is likely to disrupt steady water supplies through floods and droughts, Extremes of weather, especially during crucial growth phases, could restrict Urban agriculture can also be disrupted by changes in seasonal periodicity, which is already taking place, Spatial development The above negative impacts of climate changes and variability of weather extremes have to be reduced, mitigated and better managed than what is case in the today s practice. Extreme weather situations involving snow, ice, fog, hail, heat-waves, storms, intense rainfall, floods, low river levels or heavy seas can interfere with road, rail, water and air transport. Frequent disruptions of transport system have very negative impacts on urban functioning and this can be mitigated/corrected by proper spatial planning and detailed design. Adaptation measures are best organized within the spatial plan of an urban complex. For example overheating mitigation will require more space especially green one. The same applies to water features and overall water management which inspired the concept of making space for water. This include adequate multifunctional flooding control facilities such as SUDS and other BG Solutions and provision of all other links and interfaces that enable Location and interference of renewable resources collecting devices - wind turbines, PV, solar collectors as well as for resources recycling also need to be properly integrated into spatial plan. This put new requirements to the spatial planners of the future. Contents of the future spatial plans have to be modeled and optimized for their different multifunctional role. 21

140 Urban Spatial Planning in the Context of Adaptation to the Impacts of Climate Change Spatial planning should include flood control measures. This requires provision of space for water i.e.. As a conclusion, spatial development plays crucial role in providing sustainability and adaptation of cities for future climate changes and weather extremes Buildings Buildings are the most important urban feature. In addition to providing the major function for which they were constructed (living, commercial and public functions/activities) in the BGD concept they have to fulfill some other roles such as - Interactions with recycling of resources, energy recovery and regeneration; - Better interaction with greenery in order to benefit form - Providing framework for improved energy efficiency; - Canvas for urban agriculture; - Matrix for better air movement for preventing dead zones of poor air quality. All these new requirements have to be taken into account when designing new development and retrofitting the existing ones. BGD project and BG Solutions provide innovative concepts for interactions of buildings with the multifunctional ecosystem services. This poses new challenges for buildings design and quantification of ecosystem performances. One of the problems with the existing stock of buildings is that they rarely fulfill all the sustainability criteria and have to retrofitted to be BGD compatible Traffic pollution All types of urban transportation systems create pollution, the major ones being a. air pollution due to increased emission of NO x, CO 2 and other gasses b. noise caused by engines and wheels. Both types are severe and modern cities aim at reducing them by combination of preventive and curative (mitigation) measures. BGD paradigm pursues the concept by which both type of pollution are managed by the above combination of measures, but the difference between the conventional and BGD method is in BG integrated solutions which are obtained by optimized modeling parallel to spatial/ master planning Heat island phenomenon As urban areas develop, the landscape is being changed greatly. More of the sun s heat is absorbed and retained by the common construction materials than the natural materials. Open land and vegetation are replaced by increasing amounts of buildings and roads. Permeable and moist surfaces are becoming impermeable and 22

141 Urban Spatial Planning in the Context of Adaptation to the Impacts of Climate Change dry. Apart from that, more release of anthropogenic heat and the non-circulation of air due to urban canyons also contribute to the positive thermal balance of urban areas. All these factors are responsible for the formation of urban heat islands the phenomenon where urban areas (especially city centres) have higher temperatures than the surrounding suburban and rural areas. It is an undeniable fact that the climate is changing. Many big cities in the world have already experienced the problems of increased thermal burdens caused by global warming and urban heat island effects which are particularly pronounced during extreme heat waves which can cause deaths of thousands of vulnerable city dwellers. In the situations like this every degree of temperature increase does count. Figure 7 shows that the surface temperature of London on the night of 12th July 2006 as the heat wave was starting to build. It can be clearly identified that the surface temperature rises towards the centre of London, with the biggest difference of 5 C between urban and suburban areas. Water and energy recovery BGD approach Blue Green Dream All rights reserved. Figure 7 (a) Surface temperature ( C) in London at 21.43pm on 12 July 2006 and (b) BGD approach in combining water and energy recovery with urban heat island mitigation Heat island intensifies with city greenery depletion and water shortage during dry periods with high temperature. According to BG Solutions this problem can be significantly reduced by enhancing urban greenery s evaporative cooling and water and energy recycling. Excess heat is stored, harvested water used for enhancing evaporation thus cooling the urban environment. These phenomena are to be modeled together with master planning and the effects quantified Economy In addition to general negative impacts on global economy such as reduced snow cover affecting winter tourism, disruptions to global trade, transport, energy supplies and labor markets and reductions of crop productivity in southern and central Europe there are many other adverse impact particularly hitting urban areas. The number of severe weather events, for example, is likely to increase and intensify as a result of climate change, which could result in billions of dollars/euros in economic damage annually. 23

142 Urban Spatial Planning in the Context of Adaptation to the Impacts of Climate Change It is argued that the costs of climate change far in excess of the costs of preventing it. The detrimental effects of climate change will be more severe on the countries least equipped or which are slow to adapt, socially or economically. It is foreseeable that there will be an increase in demand for property insurance covering damage due to natural hazards. Not only physical facilities and buildings in which the financial sector has invested. Policy makers and society are also changing the framework conditions for investments to take account of climate change. All this has to be reflected through appropriate spatial planning Health issues The vulnerable groups are vulnerable to additional heat, and deaths attributable to heat waves are expected to be approximately five times as great as winter deaths. Warmer climates will encourage migration of disease-bearing insects like mosquitoes and malaria is already appearing in places it hasn t been seen before. A warmer and more variable climate leads to higher levels of some air pollutants and more frequent extreme weather events. It increases the rates and ranges of transmission of infectious diseases through unclean water and contaminated food, and by affecting vector organisms (such as mosquitoes) and intermediate or reservoir host species that harbor the infectious agents. Increase in both infectious diseases and non-infectious diseases such as circulation disorders and allergies are expected to increase. There is also reason to fear that more injuries will occur if extreme weather events such as severe storms and floods, strong winds and coastal waves become more frequent. Increase in allergic disorders, especially those arising from changes in the distribution of pollen, e.g. Ambrosia. Increase in the incidence of respiratory problems, favored by ground--level ozone during high-pressure situations in summer Protecting the population With greater threat of severe storms, floods or drought-induced forest fires, the crisis and emergency management must adapt accordingly. At the same time it is important to help the public to get better protected. Special attention should be paid to energy and water supply, transport and telecommunications and information technology, because they have the function 24

143 Urban Spatial Planning in the Context of Adaptation to the Impacts of Climate Change of lifelines of society. Since they are particularly vulnerable. mutually dependent, they are The occurrences of the above environmental and public health problems have to be analyzed and preventive measures planned. The most apparent / appropriate moment to do so is during spatial planning when the preventive measures can be combined with other BG Solutions for the optimized impacts which are quantifiable by the BG IMS (Blue Green Integrated Modelling System) BGD paradigm and its impact on spatial planning Based on the comprehensive analysis of the issues presented in the section 4.1 the major differences between the conventional and BGD paradigm based one are described in what follows. Standard urban planning is usually done by different specialists without analyzing mutual interactions; only few interactions between different project components being considered. In the BG design all possible interactions between urban settlement s components are modeled and the best possible (optimized) solution proposed for the final design. This is done through active integrated design and modelling process characterized by: Interaction between urban solutions/ecosystem services, greenery, water cycle, renewables, efficient building and pollutions are systematically analyzed; Improvement of each of the ecosystem service and functions component s efficiency is simulated for different design and operating conditions; Influences between above components are quantified (technical and financial). Quantification is done for the standard operating conditions as well as for the extreme natural events; Quantified influences are transformed in to proposals/instructions that will inform design process towards the sustainability and efficiency goals. When the above principles are applied the following effects/benefits form the BG Solutions are expected to be achieved: Demands of all water resources are managed (harvested, locally produced and recycled), hence saved and used more efficiently; Greenery is selected and located to use less water, improve outdoor air quality, save energy, reduce urban heat island and improve aesthetic values and biodiversity; Buildings, street and public spaces are designed to utilize the effects of the greenery recycled water management, renewable energy, reduced noise, water and air pollution, thus become cheaper to maintain and more healthy and comfortable for the people to live in; This approach secures lower overall capital and operational cost including infrastructure for water, greenery and energy for buildings. All urban components are designed to mitigate the effects of extreme anthropogenic impacts and natural disasters, climate changes and extreme weather variability. 25

144 Urban Spatial Planning in the Context of Adaptation to the Impacts of Climate Change. Finally the BD Solutions based developments are cheaper to build, utilize and maintain. They are significantly more sustainable and efficient and much more resilient to the climate change effects. Such developments are more amenable and have higher market value Spatial planning and interactions with integrated modelling of ecosystems performance indicators (hand in hand) Urban design draws together many strands of place-making-environmental responsibility, social equity and economic viability. Spatial planning is a powerful tool for urban adaptation because it can produce solutions that mitigate negative Climate Change impacts. Traditional spatial planning becomes entangled in a system which produces developments, but not optimized quality places. The BGD aims to fill this gap and to create quality places. Once climate change issues for the particular location have been identified (see Fig 8) and relevant eco system performance indicators have been established it is essential to quantify the following: 1. Dependence of each of the ecosystem performance indicator on the proposed spatial development concept. 2. Mutual interactions between the ecosystem services and optimization of performances. 3. Gradual improvements of the planned outline for improvement of the finally optimized solution. In order to best utilize spatial planning as a climate change adaptation tool Blue Green approach combines these two functions: a. Spatial planning and b. Optimized modeling in an iterative fashion. MODEL TO QUANTIFY THE INTERACTION WATER CYCLE GREENERY URBAN SOLUTIONS LIVING ENVIRONMENT QUALITY PERF. IND. RENEWABLE ENERGY CONVENT. ENERGY BUILDING SOLUTIONS BG - INTEGRATED DESIGN POLLUTION Fig 5 Blue Green Solution s based approach in integrated modelling of interactions for quantification of ecosystems performance and optimisation of spatial plan solutions 26

145 Urban Spatial Planning in the Context of Adaptation to the Impacts of Climate Change BGD paradigm of urban planning establishes the system that applies integrated sustainable solutions to the urban fabric. Adaptation for climate change represents only the part of the whole scenario. Integrated master plan design based on the analysis of interactions between different project components presented in Fig. 8 concentrate on key interactions. As opposed to conventional planning if the above procedure of planning combined with modelling is implemented systematically it is expected that the overall construction (capital) cost will be lower, dwellers would have to pay lower utility bills and the market value of such a property will be higher. 27

146 Urban Spatial Planning in the Context of Adaptation to the Impacts of Climate Change 5. Tools supporting planners and decision makers in adopting innovative solutions This section makes concluding remarks based on the relevant Clause from the Contract which reads: To list models, methodologies, and other instruments of the decision making (example, GIS maps) which can assist a municipal decision maker in her midand ling-term planning activities. There should be indications what kind of resources (purchase of software, data collection, human capital, and other resources) should be utilized to apply the mentioned decision making instruments The methodology pursued by the BDG project is relatively recent and very innovative. It is based on two major pillars : a. Planning and design is based on making synergy - integrated interactions between various components of urban infrastructure and eco system services and b. Integrated modeling of these interactions and obtaining optimized solution and quantification of the effects in time and space. In order to implement up-to-date methodologies and technologies described in the previous chapters it is essential that there is a coordinated action (there is balance of two aspects) between two major groups of decision makers 1. At the levels central, regional and local government They should deal with legal, institutional and socio-economic framework which would create enabling environment for implementation of these innovative strategic planning methodologies. Central and local governments are supposed to work in coordinated fashion. There is a need to initiate development of the national policy and drafting legal documents on innovative methods of planning, design, construction, maintenance and management of urban areas based on the BGD philosophy in order to achieve long term sustainability of the cities planned and 2. Technical specialists at the level of municipal planning institutions and cooperating consultancy companies dealing with innovative spatial/urban planning of new cities (new developments) and retrofitting of the existing ones. Innovative planning: At both levels implementation of the innovative methodologies presented in this report should start with a. Briefing Making sure that all relevant individuals grasp the essence of the innovative aspects and commit it and b. Capacity building Training sufficient number of professionals who will take the lead in implementation of these methodologies. In order to be able to implement these methodologies decision makers should have access to a suit of the following: A. Appropriate data on the existing physical assets (buildings and infrastructure) in suitable graphical form (GIS and supporting analytical and visualization tools). If non-existent the appropriate software and hardware should be purchased and people trained to convert the historical archives into appropriate digital form. 28

147 Urban Spatial Planning in the Context of Adaptation to the Impacts of Climate Change B. Data Bank in the appropriate form and size (depending on the size of the city) containing numerical information on physical characteristics of the space and processes in the environment (climatological, hydrological, hydrogeological, other technical), demographic and socio-economical and other relevant data. Direct communication between A and B should be enabled C. Architectural and Spatial planning software and supporting tools. Depending on the size of the city and the capacity of the planning institutions, it may be appropriate to outsource some of the functions to the collaborating consulting companies. D. Decision Aiding / Supporting System for Spatial Planning which should enable dealing with both quantity and quality types on analytical interactions. It should have the following components: Cloud Data Mining Interfaces / Platforms for linking data and models Models (water, air, greenery, energy, atmospheric processes, environmental human comfort) Scenarios, mutual interactions, optimisation analyses, interactions with planning Decision Supporting System (DSS) Other E. Strategic planning, policy compliance and interaction tools D. Action Plan E. Budget Allocation In order to implement the above innovative concept the following hints / bullet points should be taken into account:. Change the mind-set and consumptive habits and switch to BGD paradigm Help to solve problems of today in step by step fashion (do not wait for all conditions to be met) Create good intentions through inspiring small scale and demo projects Create new rules for business and institutions involved in planning and implementation process Change the system for planning, design and decision making creativity Create partnerships:public-private-citizens Create new leadership styles 29

148 Urban Spatial Planning in the Context of Adaptation to the Impacts of Climate Change 6. Interactions with stakeholders (SH) in Veszprem 6.1. Stakeholder s view on the issues and the needs for solutions (gathered in the meeting on the 2 nd October 2013) Although the meeting in Veszprem did not identify the Stakeholders views on these issues, this issue should be revisited in an appropriate follow-up process Potentials for Veszprem to become an exemplar of innovative practice for more detailed analysis, classification, quantification and tackling the critical issues Although this aspect may not have been on the immediate agenda, if the recommendations of this report are accepted, Veszprem could serve as an example of implementation of innovative technologies, pioneering implementation of the BGD paradigm in Hungary 6.3. Suggested follow-up (detailed study) resources and capacity building needs and implementation methodology The following follow-up is recommended a. Organize briefing on the findings and recommendations of this report to all relevant stakeholders as a separate activity b. Acquire feed-back c. Organize a separate study on the need for capacity building and its program based on the findings of the feed-back d. Implement the capacity building program e. Prepare an appropriate action plan based on the joint work interactions with stakeholders 7. Conclusions and the way forward The basis for the conclusions will be the proposals made in the sections 6. Final version will be made after obtaining comments on the draft of this document. In the Annex to this report presented are selected examples from various projects all over the world. It should be noticed that BGD is an innovative concept, so that there are not yet examples in which the complete BGD methodology is implemented. The examples presented in the Annex present good practices for individual components similar to what is pursed by the BGD. 30

149 Vulnerability to Climate Change An analysis of urban systems in Budapest s District XIII By October 2014

150 Acknowledgements This study was produced by ICI Interaktiv Zrt., commissioned by the Regional Environmental Center for Central and Eastern Europe (REC) within the OrientGate project. The OrientGate project was co- funded by the EU s South East Europe Transnational Cooperation Programme. For further information, see

151 Table of contents 1. Introduction Materials and methods Urban systems in District XIII Location Population Sectoral distribution Transport/road infrastructure Flood management Sewerage system and waste management Green waste and selective waste collection Spatial planning Green areas The built environment and energy Air quality Socioeconomic aspects Community involvement Environmental awareness in the district Environmental activity in the municipality Environmental education and climate consciousness Conclusions References... 27

152

153 1. Introduction The contribution of anthropogenic activities to global warming is increasingly recognised and has been less disputed in recent years. According to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), published in 2013, human influences have been detected in the warming of the atmosphere and the oceans; changes to the global water cycle; reductions in the amount of snow and ice; global mean sea level rise; and changes in some climate extremes. The evidence of human influence has grown since the publication of the Fourth Assessment Report in It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of observed warming since the mid- 20th century. The total anthropogenic effective radiative forcing (ERF) for 2011 relative to 1750 is 2.29 (1.13 to 3.33) W m 2, and the best estimate is 43 percent higher than that reported in the Fourth Assessment Report for the year Over half the world s population live in urban environments. The urban heat island effect and high population and density rates result in big cities showing greater sensitivity to the impacts of climate change. The promotion of environmental awareness and public health can be regarded as the main relevant needs in Budapest s District XIII. The municipality has a high level of green thinking, which includes the dissemination of information to citizens. Adaptation actions are needed at all levels and require collaboration and a harmonised approach in order to avoid inefficiency. The main goal of the present study is to analyse the principles of governance and the division of responsibilities among the district municipalities, city authorities and central government in the context of promoting and implementing adaptation to climate change and thereby reducing the vulnerability of urban systems. One specific objective is to analyse the existing system and governance in Budapest s XIII district their structure, how they operate, and how they are coping/will cope with the likely impacts of climate change. Another objective is to provide suggestions on how to establish adequate and feasible adaptive capacities to promote adaptation by means of relevant policies and measures in line with national actions. 5

154 2. Materials and methods The climate strategy prepared by District XIII will be used as a background document for the present study. One key feature of the adaptation process at district level is the gap between level of vulnerability and decision- making power. The populations and urban systems that are most affected by the negative impacts of climate change typically do not have strong decision- making powers. In order to implement appropriate adaptation actions, they need to communicate their adaptation needs to higher- level authorities. According to the computational simulations in a vulnerability assessment carried out by the Hungarian Meteorological Service (HMS) (Szabó et al., 2013), District XIII is greatly affected by increasing temperatures throughout the year, especially in summer, and the increasing frequency of heavy rainfall. Daily mean changes show large day- to- day fluctuations, and the greatest increase can be expected at the end of May and beginning of June. In order to simulate changes in the urban climate system, the HMS used two different regional climate models: ALADIN- Climate and REMO. Projected climate parameters are considered for two future periods ( and ), with reference to The results of the climate projections for Budapest have been used as a background document for the present study. Uncertainties arising from the unsatisfactory horizontal resolution (10 25 km) were pointed out in the HMS study. For Budapest, a resolution of 10 to 25 km is insufficient for detailed investigation. A fourth background document used in the preparation of the present study is the National Climate Change Strategy of Hungary (NÉS), which was elaborated in December 2006 and revised in 2013 (currently awaiting approval). The 2006 strategy focuses mainly on mitigation, while adaptation is less well covered. The revised document places greater emphasis on adaptation and includes the suggestion to carry out basic studies to assess the vulnerability of natural systems and economic sectors. Assessing the vulnerability of urban systems is of particular importance. Vulnerability assessments include collecting information on exposure and sensitivity and estimating adaptive capacity. According to earlier investigations, the most vulnerable points (with the exception of public health) in District XIII are urban green areas, biodiversity (especially on Margit Island and in Népsziget, although smaller parks such as Szent István Park are also affected), and the reaction of energy supplies to higher temperatures and heat waves. There are several additional vulnerable areas that have an impact on inhabitants everyday lives, including transportation, water supply, sewage and drainage, buildings, and building engineering technologies. The main sources for the present study are: - The OrientGate project stakeholders meeting held on August 29, Documents and studies on District XIII. - Personal interviews with: o employees of the Environmental Management Division of Public Service Ltd. in District XIII; o employees of the Road Administration Division of Public Service Ltd. in District XIII; o employees of the Medical Centre of the District XIII Social Welfare System; o employees of the district s architectural office: and o an architect/expert in the field of climate change. 6

155 Within the OrientGate project, District XIII was invited to act as a sample district for an urban vulnerability assessment. Hotspots were identified that emerge in urban environments in the case of changing climatic conditions. The authors would like to acknowledge the help and cooperation of District XIII. 7

156 3. Urban systems in District XIII 3.1 Location Budapest s District XIII is located in the north of Pest and cover s an area of km 2. It is the 15 th largest among the capital s districts. Margit Island occupies a significant proportion of the district s territory, thus residents live in an area of roughly 12.5 km 2. It lies directly on the Danube, with 6 km of riverbank representing the western natural boundary of the district. District XIII has the longest section of Danube riverbank among Budapest s districts. Another major watercourse in the district is Rákos stream, which flows into the Danube along a concrete bed and includes a dam system. The district comprises six areas: Angyalföld, Újlipótváros, Vizafogó, Lőportárdűlő, Margit Island (or Margitsziget) and the southern section of Népsziget. It is an inner- city district, adjacent to District IV in the north, District XIV to the west, and District V to the south. There are several heat sources beneath the ground. 3.2 Population Despite its small area, the district has a relatively large population of 118,000 to 119,000 in Population growth in continuous and intensive: in 2009, there were just 113,500 people living in the district, meaning that the population has grown by over 4 percent in four years. It is currently the fourth most populous district, with a high population density of 80 people/km 2, although the actual density is higher as Margit Island is a non- residential area. If the area occupied by Margit Island is subtracted, the population density jumps from 80 to 116 people/km2 and, like the total population, it is also continuously increasing due to the large numbers of people moving into the district. Housing problems are therefore predicted for the future. 8

157 4. Sectoral distribution 4.1 Transport/road infrastructure The district s road system is approximately 170 km long. Well- planned traffic routes provide appropriate conditions for driving and for public transport use. Several busy roads lead through the district, including Váci út, Róbert Károly körút, Dózsa György út and Szent István körút. The district is also served by water transport along the Danube. There is substantial support for cycling, and greater support is planned in the future. The district participates in the annual national Bike to Work campaign, a month- long action during which participants are encouraged to avoid using their cars for commuting. On one of the days the municipality provides breakfast (pastries and fruit) for cyclists. Cycling is environmentally friendly, does not pollute the atmosphere with greenhouse gases or other harmful emissions, and creates no noise pollution. Around 94 km of the district s road network are entirely paved and suitable for cycling, and there are 24 km of bicycle roads and bicycle lanes. This puts the district at the forefront of cycling in Budapest and contributed to their success in winning the Bike- Friendly City award in 2010 and There are 187 bicycle parking racks and the number will increase within the framework of approved projects. The tram network covers 7.3 km. Reconstruction of tramline 1 began in September 2013 and is due to take around two years. The work had become urgent, as traffic restrictions frequently had to be imposed due track problems caused by heat waves and extreme weather events. The district has only a few parking areas and underground garages, thus most car owners park their vehicle on the streets. Since this takes away space from green areas, the aim is to provide extra underground parking. Transit traffic must also be reduced, by encouraging people to live nearer to their workplaces or not to use cars for commuting. The consequences of expected extreme weather events are given high priority in the transport sector. Large volumes of rainfall, permanently high levels of air pollution and long dry periods need to be addressed in different ways. Among the most important tasks related to road infrastructure are flood protection, improving the condition of pavements, preventing air pollution (especially due to parking), creating underpasses and ensuring the smooth running of the public transport system. The rising risk of accidents requires greater attention and flexibility on the part of the municipality. Many of the operational tasks related to the road infrastructure in District XIII (e.g. sweeping, dust control, snowploughing and watering) are the responsibility of the Mayor s Office. Additional tasks include addressing the problem of flooded underpasses, torn wires and disaster situations. Although the district is not obliged to do so, it organises street clearing at its own expense in the event of extreme snowfall. Other activities related to the public roads are controlled and supervised by the Road Administration Division (RAD) of the district s Public Service Ltd. It was revealed in the course of consultations that the district communicates smoothly with the Budapest authorities and operates an appropriate, well- functioning Quick Maintenance Unit (as one of the units within the RAD). The unit is primarily responsible for maintaining pavements and for other jobs that do not require high- performance machines. In addition, the district has good 9

158 cooperation with the local fire department and can count on its help in the event of sudden disaster situations. The maintenance of parks, highways, streets and pavements is undertaken by various private limited companies that have framework contracts with the municipality. In urban environments, storm water run- off is an emerging problem due to increasing volumes of rainfall. The problem can be caused by inadequate sewerage systems and the inappropriate quality of roads and pavements, and large volumes of precipitation can wash away the road surface. District XIII does not face this problem as the sewerage system covers 99 percent of the district and run- off from all paved roads drains into the sewer. When examining urban vulnerability, it is particularly important to assess the resistance of the pavement surfaces. Although 90 percent of the district s roads are made from rolled asphalt, which has better adaptation properties, some roads are made using mastic asphalt too. The biggest problems related to mastic asphalt are its lack of expansion and plasticity and its tendency to fragment due to its high bitumen content. In order to reduce traffic congestion the district prefers paid parking and underground garages, and the creation of one- way streets. Additional plans include the formation of multiple small centres to support local community life and reduce travel times for accessing public programmes and services. During road reconstruction, there is continuous consultation between the Mayor s Office and Budapest s Public Transport Corporation (BKV and BKK). Public transport services can only be changed with the consent of these government transport companies. However, consultations often last for several months and bureaucracy is a barrier to efficient and rapid developments. Hotspots According to a 2012 study by the European Environment Agency EEA and information obtained during a visit to the RAD of the Public Service Ltd., many hotspots have been identified in the district: metro lines and metro stations (both observed and predicted in the event of floods and heavy rainfall); trolleybus cables (predicted in the event of freezing rain); interchanges, especially in low- lying areas such as Béke tér (both observed and predicted in the event of heavy rainfall); the sewerage system, due to the combining of sewage and run- off (a current problem); flagstones, in the case of old buildings with poor insulation (observed in the event of heavy rainfall); mastic asphalt, which has poor resistance to temperature fluctuations and is likely to suffer damage in the event of extreme temperatures (both observed and predicted); air pollution at interchanges (both observed and predicted during periods of drought); and insufficient parking spaces and underground garages (both observed and predicted). 10

159 Recommendations - - The reconstruction of all out- dated tram tracks based on the renewal of tramline 1 in order to improve resilience (to be managed by the Mayor s Office). Flagstones could be used instead of mastic asphalt as a road surface. However, depending on the planning and laying, flagstones are permeable to rainwater, which can be a threat to the basements of poorly insulated buildings. Planning must therefore take into account the age of the nearby buildings and their protection against groundwater infiltration (the responsibility of the Mayor s Office). 11

160 4.2 Flood management Part of the district s Vizafogó quarter is considered as a flood risk area by the Citizens Protection Unit of Budapest, as it has been inundated on several occasions. In the event of flooding, there is a rise in the level of the Rákos stream, which flows into the Danube. Hotspots The level of the dam on the Rákos stream was raised in the 1990s by 1 m, although in the event of bigger floods it will need to be strengthened and raised. This will be managed by the municipality. If the Danube floods, or if there is heavy rainfall, the stream can flood and damage private and public buildings in the vicinity of the dam. The plan for the second Danube riverbank has increased the number of citizens concerned about flooding. Shipping is disrupted in the event of flooding (both observed and expected). Népsziget is inundated even in the event of smaller floods (both observed and expected). 12

161 4.3 Sewerage system and waste management Drinking water supply is a very important issue, especially in the light of climate change. The district has rich groundwater resources and the drilling of wells for water supply in public parks is on- going. The district has a good sewerage system, which covers the whole area with the exception of Margit Island and Népsziget. The sewerage network also needs to be expanded to serve new areas, such as the FOKA bay development. A km water supply network serves every street in the district. By the end of 2012 there were 28 street drinking water fountains, 1,500 street sprinklers and one street groundwater well in operation in the district, maintained by the municipality. According to a representative of the Environmental Management Division of Public Service Ltd, the district is also a frontrunner among Budapest districts in terms of the use of groundwater for irrigation in public parks. One street groundwater well is currently in operation and a further six are being authorised Green waste and selective waste collection As inappropriate waste collection and handling practices can lead to the emission of greenhouse gases, waste management is a key area in terms of climate change mitigation, and in this context the district is promoting selective waste collection. The amounts of solid and liquid waste generated are continuously increasing, and it is envisaged that the heat generated during waste processing and sewage treatment in the district will be used for energy production. The district s waste processing machines are already environmentally friendly, consuming less fossil fuel. Selective waste collection is carried out in the district. and one waste collection facility. There are a sufficient number of waste collection islands (57 in total), and one waste collection facility for the disposal of paper, plastics and metals combined, plastics, metal cans, coloured glass and clear glass. Hazardous waste can also be disposed of at the collection facility, although it does not accept hazardous liquid waste. Household selective waste collection campaigns have also been organised, including a pilot scheme in the framework of the AngyalZÖLD programme. The scheme has been expanded only to residential areas of Újlipótváros. In terms of the district as a whole, only paper and plastic waste are collected from households. The programme is apparently popular among residents and selective waste collection has been expanded to educational institutions (schools and six kindergartens), where the composting of organic waste is also supported. The aim is to reduce the ecological footprint of educational institutions. It is important to prevent the creation of illegal waste dumps and to remove any that already exist. Each autumn, bags are provided to citizens for the collection of green waste. Electrical and electronic waste is collected free of charge by contractors for recycling. Battery collection containers have been placed in several governmental institutions (including medical facilities, educational institutes and the Mayor s Office). The collection of hazardous and electronic waste from households is organised two or three times per year, and the one- day service is very popular. Solvents, pesticides and medicines can be disposed of, and the municipality ensures their environmentally friendly disposal. The surveillance of public spaces ensures the prevention of illegal dumping. The municipality is undertakes to remove illegal dumped waste even if it cannot be determined who is responsible for the offence. 13

162 4.4 Spatial planning Green areas Besides providing opportunities for recreation, green spaces improve quality of life and have a favourable impact on local climatic conditions. Vegetation has an important role in cooling the air through evaporation, and tall trees provide shade for buildings. Larger green areas have their own circulation systems in their immediate environment. The district s public parks and gardens (with the exception of Margit Island and Népsziget) cover an area of 26 hectares. Of the district s total area of km 2, green spaces make up 3 km 2 (or 2 km 2, if Margit Island and Népsziget are not included). This means that 15 percent of the district area is green space, which is a relatively small proportion. In general, District XIII is a highly built- up area, and the proportion of green areas is lowest in Újlipótváros. Margit Island is a large green area but lies outside the main life of the district. The same applies to Népsziget, which features a significant contiguous woody area to the south, the only forested area in the district. District residents use the parks within housing estates for recreation, as they are close to home. According to EU guidelines, the recommended amount of green space is 8 to 10 m 2 per capita. In Budapest, the figure is just 5 m 2. District XIII shows a high level of variability: in the suburban area the proportion of green spaces may be between 15 and 40 percent, although in Újlipótváros and south to Róbert Károly körút the amount of green space per capita is just 2 to 8 m 2. According to future plans, following structural and functional reconstruction the proportion of green areas will rise to 50 percent. Significant green spaces can be found around thermal baths and in the park areas of housing estates. These represent approximately half the total area made up by public parks and public gardens. Gyermek tér, Béke tér, Gyöngyösi utca and Debrecen Park make up over 1 hectare of green space. There are two protected public parks and five protected avenues in the district. From an ecological point of view, Margit Island, the west side of Népsziget, FOKA bay and Rákos stream are areas with increased sensitivity. Alongside the Rákos stream, a second Duna riverbank is due to be developed, including green areas for recreation. The development of a three- level urban canopy is also planned and will be included in urban planning regulations. A three- level canopy ensures better air circulation and ventilation and improves climatic conditions in urban spaces. A park cadastre has been established to enable the continuous recording of all the district s parks and their condition. In addition, there is a tree cadastre that contains altogether 29,110 trees, of which 16,731 are in avenues and 12,379 in parks. In terms of tree species, the maple (Acer platanoides) is dominant in parks (10 percent) and avenues (16 percent), although there are many other species in the cadastre, including the pagoda tree (Sophora japonica), the ash (Fraxinus excelsior), the plane (Acer platanoides) and the linden (Tilia cordata). The condition of trees is continuously monitored and a detailed record is kept in the tree cadastre. The age and health of all trees are recorded, and older species are replaced with species that are more adaptable to urban circumstances and less allergenic. 14

163 The district is running a tree replacement programme, as part of which it is forbidden to plant particular species, including birch, green maple, ginko biloba and mulberry. Felled trees are replaced in every case, preferably in the original location. The tree cadastre is continuously updated in connection with treatment and new planting. In 2014, the entire cadastre will be recreated. Trees planted in avenues must be able to tolerate extremely dry conditions, as precipitation is almost fully diverted into the sewerage system. Permeable pavements, such as flagstones, provide better conditions for trees but are not ideal for old buildings with non- insulated foundations. Newly planted trees are watered for two years, although this is not sufficient time to allow their roots to grow to a suitable depth, thus many of them wither in the third year. A lengthened watering period (of up to five years) is included in the district s plans. Storm damage to green spaces is cleared away by the fire service only during weekends. On weekdays, the district has to transport fallen branches and treat damaged trees using its own capacities. The district is preparing to cope with more storms and the resulting damage in the future. Weather- proofing is considered only in relation to extremely dry conditions by planting species that tolerate droughts. Birch and Japanese ash trees are currently being replaced, since birch trees break easily and Japanese ash trees scatter debris on the street, age rapidly, and tend to overhang the pavements. The allergenic properties of trees are not considered: only the problem of ragweed pollen is addressed. Green areas are maintained and developed in the framework of the AngyalZÖLD strategy. The condition of parks, public places and public spaces is checked continuously by units under district control. The strategy has a greater focus on extreme weather events in connection with reducing tree damage and the risk of accidents. The construction of a green corridor is in progress to link the green areas throughout the district. One of the main goals is to create a footpath along the entire Danube bank. The AngyalZÖLD strategy will be monitored in 2014 using multispectral satellite imaging analysis to establish the proportion of green areas (via a normalised difference vegetation index) and identify urban heat islands. A public park cadastre will also be created, and a public opinion survey will be carried out. Hotspots Trees planted along avenues should be able to tolerate extremely dry conditions, as precipitation is almost entirely diverted into the sewerage system (both observed and predicted). Vegetation is resistant only to extreme drought, not storms and heavy rainfall (both observed and predicted). The allergenic properties of trees are not taken into consideration, only the problem of ragweed pollen (Ambrosia genus) is addressed (both observed and expected). 15

164 Recommendations (all of which can be managed by the municipality) A lengthened watering period (of up to five years) in the case of trees planted on avenues (the municipality is currently exploring funding for this task). In the future, the resistance of vegetation (to heavy rainfall, storm winds, longer periods of drought, freezing rain and frost) should be taken into consideration (the municipality is able to address this issue). A allergenic properties of tree species should be considered by urban planners in the future (the municipality is able to address this issue) The built environment and energy There are many types of buildings in the district, creating a non- homogeneous cityscape. According to the district s urban planning and building regulations, issued in May 2013, the different types include family homes, prefabricated housing and office buildings. Different types of building structure obviously require different adaptation strategies. The two main sources for this chapter are the Long- Term Development Concept for Budapest s District XIII, published in 2013; and a personal interview that took place at the Office of the Chief Architect in October Newly built and renovated buildings (mainly family homes and apartment blocks) are the most popular among those moving into the district. A growing number of people are moving from the inner to the outer parts of the district. The number of one- person flats is also increasing, especially in the business quarter. The district is therefore planning to build 10,000 new flats by 2020 to cope with a growth in population of between 17,000 and 22,000 people. In 2012, 70 percent of flats comprised one or two rooms. The number of people per flat is continuously falling and currently stands at 1.6. Almost 15,000 flats were built in the district between 2000 and 2013, the highest number among all Budapest districts. Most of the new flats are small, with an average size of 58 to 60 m 2, which is somewhat below the average size of flats in Budapest (69 to 70 m 2 ). Energy The primary goal of energetics is self- sufficiency, and in order to make energy savings, renewable sources of energy are needed. The use of solar energy requires appropriate building orientation, shading and door and window size, the use of solar panels and collectors, and the installation of lagging and ventilation systems. When planning new buildings, it is also important to take wind tunnels into account in order to make use of the kinetic energy of the wind. Precipitation should be collected and stored for use during periods of drought: this has already been incorporated into the plans for new public squares in the district. Adaptation to the impacts of climate change also requires the reorganisation of public utilities, although at present the utilities do not unfortunately take part in planning. The creation of geothermic wells is also under way, although such wells cannot be dug without the permission of the authorities responsible for mining activities. 16

165 Adaptation- related regulations According to the National Requirements for Building and Urban Planning, the District Urban Planning and Building Regulations and the District Planning Regulations, there are many rules and restrictions to take into consideration when planning structural changes inside the district. Adaptation policies have been taken into account since 2010 in the context of town planning, and environmental awareness is apparent in, for example, approaches to dealing with parking problems. The main building regulations for the country as a whole are contained in the National Requirements for Building and Urban Planning, although this document still lacks consideration of adaptation strategies. Fortunately, municipalities have the right to expand and/or modify their own District Urban Planning and Building Regulations. Such regulations have two main goals: the protection of existing buildings from the impacts of climate change, and the planning of new buildings taking into account the predicted impacts of climate change in the future. The regulations are being continuously updated. There is a regulation in place on the creation of ventilation corridors in order to guarantee through ventilation in the district. This regulation may not be modified by the municipality, as it comes under the competence of the Lord Mayor s Office. Depending on the character of specific areas, there is a maximum height restriction for buildings inside the district. Other regulations also contribute to preserving the cityscape. One typical problem has emerged in Újlipótváros, for example, where it is forbidden to place the outdoor units of air conditioners on the visible facade of any building. This means that the inner courtyards are exposed to extremely warm and humid air. Changes to the regulations are in now in progress, which will allow the placing of external air- conditioning units on building facades. In all cases, the planning of green facades and rooftops is in the hands of architects, while individual authorisations must be obtained from the Office of the Chief Architect. The same applies to the thermal lagging of facades and the painting of roofs white (in order to increase their ability to reflect heat), although these issues have not arisen to date. In the case of apartment buildings, the main problem is to maintain a uniform look for the building as a whole, which makes all development processes extremely slow. Another important topic is energy supply, indoor air quality and public health. There is still no regulation on natural ventilation, although there is a regulation covering the use of mechanical ventilation systems where there is no option to use natural ventilation (if it is not possible to open windows, for example). Green investments There is one passive house in the district (at 1 15 Hun utca). The house was built in 1973 and since 2009 has used a heat pump to bring thermal water (12-15 C) into the building so supply the 256 flats. This initiative resulted in an 80 percent drop in energy demand since 1973, which is unparalleled in Hungary. In Angyalföld, an ongoing project is being implemented for a passive house system incorporating 100 flats. The complex covers three buildings, making this investment one of the biggest in the area of passive housing. The plan is for the system to include air conditioning, leading to 80 percent heat reclamation. The Lord Mayor s Office is also thinking green, recycling the waste heat from air- conditioning systems and converting it to maintain the hot water supply. 17

166 Plans and goals Taking into account migration trends and other population- related changes in the district, the importance of improving the resilience of its buildings is clear. Plans and guidelines have been developed for the immediate future: Rather than spreading horizontally, the vertical spread of buildings is to be preferred in order to preserve opportunities for the creation of green spaces. During the renewal of apartment blocks, parts of the existing buildings can be removed in order to create interior green courtyards. This would reduce the number of flats, leading to some residents having to move. According to some studies, the only apartment blocks that would require realignment would be prefabricated houses built in the 1970s and 1980s. In order to address the urban heat island effect, which is getting worse year by year, there is a need to increase the proportion of green roofs. There are several plain rooftops in the district that would be appropriate for conversion. In residential areas characterised by individual family houses, the same goal can be achieved by planting trees along the streets. Creating green facades could be an appropriate way to reduce the vulnerability of urban systems, although surprisingly it is local communities that represent the main barrier. One common reason for resistance among residents is the fear of increased numbers of insects and damage to plaster. However, public institutions are apparently more amenable, and one of the district kindergartens has recently been converted into an energy- saving building. Further sources of underground thermal water can be exploited. The creation of several town centres within the district can lead to a higher quality of community life and reduce the need for transportation. Hotspots A growing need for flats (both observed and predicted). Local resistance to the creation of green facades and rooftops (observed, but hopefully can be overcome). Restrictions on the placement of air- conditioning systems in Újlipótváros (observed). Lack of effective shading (observed). Lengthy (20- to 30- year) urban planning timescales (both observed and predicted). Absence of sufficient adaptation strategies in national and regional regulations (observed). Large fluctuations in the efficiency of urban planning (observed). Lack of modern architectural adaptation approaches (e.g. painting of roofs white) (observed). Lack of regulations to create/maintain natural ventilation, especially in offices (observed). Recommendations It is important to disseminate information about modern adaptation strategies via public forums (the municipality is able to address this issue). Communication activities must have a greater impact on local populations: residents need to be aware of the importance of adaptation (the municipality is able to address this issue). Shuttering on windows is an effective method of shading and in some cases can be used instead of air conditioning. (This decision can be made by the architect/engineer, as no relevant regulation exists at either municipality or national level.) 18

167 - Urban planning timescales should be reduced by dealing efficiently with bureaucracy in order to allow for dynamic responses (this should be addressed by the government). 4.5 Air quality The air in big cities is usually far more polluted than the air in surrounding regions due to the higher volumes of traffic and the greater population density. District XIII is one of the less- polluted areas of Budapest, even though its location and its high volume of through traffic are factors that might be expected to increase air pollution. The reason for the low pollution levels is that the air from the Pilis hills streams along the Danube, as if through a wind tunnel, cleaning the atmosphere as it goes. Although in the past harmful emissions were generated by heavy industry, there are no heavy industrial facilities at all in the district today. The biggest problem now is pollution from traffic. The constantly rising number of vehicles is exacerbating the problem. Although the level of pollution was far higher before 1990, traffic emissions are now rising due to local and transit traffic, despite the improved condition of the vehicles in circulation. The use of natural gas rather than wood or coal for communal heating has reduced the volume of emissions. Levels of sulphur dioxide have fallen, although the main pollutants are carbon monoxide and carbon dioxide. The National Air Pollution Measurement System maintains two monitoring stations in the district, one on Dózsa György út and the other on Váci út, both of which are highly polluted streets. The district is exposed to moderate levels of pollution from nitrogen oxides and particular matter, and to low levels of pollution from sulphur dioxide and carbon monoxide. In cases where the maximum permitted limit is exceeded, the Budapest mayor can issue a smog warning, based on information from the local mayor. The burning of fallen leaves in the district is restricted by national order. Leaves may be burnt between October 1 and April 30 on Fridays and Saturdays only between 10:00 and 16:00. There are very few emissions from burning. Ragweed pollen is the most problematic among air- borne allergens of plant origin. The municipality places great emphasis on the eradication of ragweed and mows down areas of the plant each year. Most pollen in the district is carried from the surrounding areas, but local sources continue to be a problem. The eradication of ragweed from public spaces is managed by the municipality and carried out by Public Services Ltd. Although parks are cut six times a year and avenues three times a year the amount of ragweed pollen continues to increase, although the growing area is not spreading. Hotspots The wind tunnel along the Danube provides fresh air from the Pilis hills: reducing this effect can lead to higher levels of air pollution (predicted). Pollutant emissions from traffic continue to rise (observed and predicted). The only allergenic plant species to be addressed is ragweed (observed). 19

168 Recommendations It is vital that the wind tunnel be maintained in the future (government regulations are needed). Through traffic must be reduced (a task for the public transport company). Greater attention should be given to the problem of allergenic plant species (to be handled at municipal level). 4.6 Socioeconomic aspects Social service: Nursing of elderly and homeless people Since 2013, social welfare and education have been integrated in the municipality. The district has a total of 12 welfare and educational institutions, including day- care centres, kindergartens, welfare institutions (for the care of the elderly and homeless) and a family centre. The heads of various social institutions were interviewed in order to obtain information for the present study. The social services reach between 4,000 and 5000 people in the district: - 1,500 people are included in food programmes; people receive regular help at home; elderly people have alarm systems at home; - approximately 200 homeless people are cared for; and - the district runs a club for pensioners. The Climate Strategy of the District is available in all institution. All institutions have been issued with the district s Climate Strategy and have health warning plans in place. In the event that a health warning is issued by the National Public Health and Medical Service (ÁNTSZ), the head of the district s social welfare division is notified and subsequently informs the district s 12 institutions via or telephone. Warnings are also issued in the case of extreme weather conditions, such as heat waves or heavy snowfall, although such warnings are quite rare. A heat- related health warning was issued in August Heads of social welfare institutions would like to receive weather- related information more often and would value a daily briefing. Information about meteorological impacts on the population would be extremely helpful. If a warning is issued, the social services must adapt their daily tasks: more people are mobilised for specific duties, those who receive home visits are visited more frequently, etc. Members of pensioners clubs are advised to stay at home in the event of stormy weather or heat waves. Staff members may also accompany pensioners home from the club if the roads are slippery or if temperatures are dangerously high. 20

169 Employees work according to a monthly schedule, although this has to be adapted in extreme weather conditions and a high level of flexibility is required. A flexible working style is a huge advantage in social institutions. Public employees are supplied with water or hot drinks by their institutions, and the frequency of supply also depends on weather warnings. Only daytime care is available for homeless people in the district. In winter, longer opening hours are not helpful because by the time people leave the day centres the night accommodation is already full. Social work in the streets is not included among the district s tasks, although, according to their employment contracts, social workers offer help to everyone in need. They described in the interviews how elderly people (over 80 years of age) are aware of, and use, traditional methods of protection from heat, such as placing wet towels round their necks, shutting the windows and keeping shutters down during the days, and ventilating their homes in the early morning hours. Problems tend to be greater among younger age groups and trainee social workers. Techniques for coping with extreme weather conditions are completely lacking from the training syllabus for social workers, thus it is an extra task for the staff of social institutions to teach them what to do in such situations. The buildings of social institutions require modernisation, most needing to be fitted with air conditioning, insulation, and new windows and doors. However, the district s clinics are fully equipped with air conditioning. Elderly people often go to the parks to rest in the shade during heat waves. Some have outdoor vaporisers, and these can also be rented for programmes organised by welfare institutes in the case of extreme heat waves. Presentations are also organised for elderly people at pensioners clubs about the health impacts of heat waves. Playful education on environmental issues are also organised in kindergartens. Hotspots Lack of regular, daily weather forecasts (observed). Lack of regular warnings about extreme weather conditions (observed). Lack of night- time accommodation for homeless people (observed). Inadequate training of new social workers (observed). Lack of insulation and air conditioning in old buildings (observed). Recommendations Daily briefings about weather conditions and their impacts on the population would be very helpful for the staff of institutions (this can be addressed at municipal level). Regular warnings about extreme weather conditions (heat waves, heavy snowfall) (government regulations are needed). Night- time accommodation must be provided for homeless people (government regulations and support are needed, there is no financial background in the municipality). 21

170 - - Techniques for coping with extreme weather conditions should be included in the training syllabus for social workers (this can be addressed at municipal level). Old buildings should be appropriately modernised (this requires both government and municipal support). 4.7 Community involvement Environmental awareness in the district The main principles of adaptation cannot be implemented without public involvement. In addition to disseminating information and encouraging changes in people s behaviour, one of the most important tasks is to prepare future generations to cope with the impacts of climate change. The municipality follows up on global and regional environmental innovations and news. The aim is to involve primary schools and kindergartens in regular public discussions about environmental protection. It is essential to involve children in a practical platform where they can learn how to live in a changing environment. The municipality has been active in recent years in its response to climate change. There are currently two projects running in the district that focus on sustainability: the AngyalZÖLD programme; and the Long- Term Development Concept for District XIII Environmental activity in the municipality In addition to Local Agenda 21, an environmental fund has been created by municipality in the past few years in order to finance related projects. The annnual amount available is HUF 5 million. The local television channel TV13, and the district s web pages and are ideal platforms for providing the public with information about environmental issues Environmental education and climate consciousness Since climate change is a long- term process it is vital to educate future generations to be environmentally aware and responsible. Changing citizens attitudes and behaviour will make a huge contribution to climate change adaptation in the district. In order to encourage people to live climate- conscious lives, practical education is essential. Current initiatives include: - paper collections for recycling in 17 primary schools; - selective waste collection in public institutes; - the creation of five eco primary schools and three eco kindergartens; - the international Green Club Networking project for students; - various initiatives implemented by civil society organisations; and 22

171 - a municipality website where health alerts issued by ÁNTSZ (e.g. on UV radiation, heat waves and pollen counts) are published. Hotspots Lack of permanent communication with educational institutes (observed). Feedback is not always considered when making decisions (observed). Resistance on the part of the local community to the practical implementation of adaptation strategies (observed and predicted). Lack of knowledge about environmental protection and green thinking (observed). Individual interests are given too much weight and thinking often focuses on the short term (observed). There is a failure to make use of available media for environmental education (observed). Recommendations - - More forums should be organised on environmental issues (to be addressed by both central governmental and the municipality). Practical environmental programmes should be encouraged in primary schools (to be addressed by government and municipal stakeholders). 23

172 5. Conclusions The areas analysed in this study of urban vulnerability include transportation/road infrastructure, flood management, sewerage systems, waste management, spatial planning, air quality, socioeconomic issues and community involvement. Although District XIII is one of the greenest areas in Budapest, several new hotspots have been identified. Where possible, appropriate recommendations have been made. In addition to the sources listed below, much of the information for this study was obtained through personal interviews: ICI Interaktív Zrt. would like to express its particular thanks to Csaba Staniszewksi, Péter Gábor, Csilla V. Gál, Zsuzsanna Iványi, Réka Prokai, Mariia Khovanskaia, József Pál, Dóra Kutas and Józsefné Bányász. 24

173 Matrix 1: Observed vulnerability in District XIII Climate issues/stimuli Higher temperatures and heat waves Heavy precipitation and fluvial floods Heavy precipitation and urban drainage floods Decreased precipitation, water scarcity and drought Strong winds Energy supply Vulnerable systems in the district Water supply Transportation Sewerage and drainage Solid waste Buildings and built- up areas Urban green areas and Biodiversity Legend White: not significant Orange: significant Red: highly significant 25

174 Matrix 2: Potential/future vulnerability in District XIII Climate issues/stimuli Higher temperatures and heat waves Heavy precipitation and fluvial floods Heavy precipitation and urban drainage floods Decreased precipitation, water scarcity and drought Strong winds Energy supply Water supply Vulnerable systems in the district Transportation Sewerage and drainage Solid waste Buildings and built- up areas Urban green areas and biodiversity Legend White: not significant Orange: significant Red: highly significant 26

175 References AngyalZÖLD Összefogással az élhetőbb környezetért. A XIII. kerület zöldhálózat fejlesztési programterve Egyeztetési dokumentáció május (Collaboration for a more liveable environment. Green infrastructure development strategy of District XIII, Agreement documentation, May 2011) Budapest District XIII, Long- Term Development Concept xiii- kerulet- hosszutavu- fejlesztesoi- koncepcio Municipality Environmental Protection and Sustainability Programme of District XIII, Budapest, es- fenntarthatosagi- programot- keszit- a- xiii- kerulet Urban Planning and Building Regulations in the Uniform Structure of District XIII, Budapest, iroda#kvsz Climate Change Strategy of Budapest s District XIII a- klimastrategiat- a- kepviselo- testulet European Environment Agency, Urban adaptation to climate change in Europe. Challenges and opportunities for cities together with supportive national and European policies. doi: /41895 Gellért, L. (editor in chief). Közösen a XIII. kerületért Félidőben. Budapest Főváros XIII. Kerületi Önkormányzat programja időarányos teljesítéséről, a további feladatokról (Together for District XIII At half time. Municipality programme for pro- rata fulfilment and further tasks of District XIII, Budapest). Municipality of District XIII, Mayor s Office. 27

176 Gellért, L. (ed. in chief). A XIII. kerület 2012 januártól decemberig (District XIII from January to December, 2012). Municipality of District XIII, Mayor s Office. Gellért, L., Dr. K. Juhász, and E. Pappné Vőneki, A XIII. Kerület kezdetektől napjainkig (District XIII: From the beginning to the present day). ISBN IPCC, Summary for Policymakers. In Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Changes to the Underlying Scientific/Technical Assessment. Downloadable from: SPM_Approved27Sep2013.pdf Nemzeti Éghajlatváltozási Stratégia (National Climate Change Strategy) (revised in 2013) Szabó, P., I. Krüzselyi and G. Szépszó, Vulnerability assessment for Hungary. Hungarian Meteorological Service, Regional Climate Modelling Group. Szépszó, G., M. Kovács, I. Krüzselyi, and P. Szabó, Future changes in extreme events in the Carpathian Basin in the coming decades (in Hungarian). Hozam és Érték 4, News articles from the website of District XIII (in Hungarian) Acceptance of cycling strategy by the municipality: a- kerekparos- strategiat- a- kepviselo- testulet Fall in the cost of heating by 40 percent due to the use of geothermal energy: geotermikus- energia- reven- 40- szazalekkal- csokkent- a- futesi- koltseg- a- hun- utcaban 28

177 ASSESSING THE CLIMATE VULNERABILITY OF VITAL URBAN SYSTEMS/SERVICES IN VESZPRÉM 1 Contents 2 METHODOLOGY URBAN SYSTEM OF ENERGY SUPPLY EXPOSURE MAPPING Electricity supply Natural gas supply SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS Electricity urban system Natural gas supply urban system ADAPTIVE CAPACITY ANALYSIS Electricity urban system Natural gas supply urban system IMPACT ASSESSMENT Electricity urban system Natural gas supply urban system VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT URBAN SYSTEM OF WATER SUPPLY EXPOSURE MAPPING SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS Sensitivity to heavy rainfall ADAPTIVE CAPACITY ANALYSIS IMPACT ASSESSMENT VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT URBAN SYSTEM OF DRAINAGE Exposure Rainwater drainage Wastewater drainage Sensitivity analysis Rainwater drainage

178 5.2.2 Wastewater drainage Adaptive capacity Rainwater drainage Wastewater drainage Impact analysis Rainwater drainage Wastewater drainage Vulnerability assessment Sources ANNEXES

179 2 METHODOLOGY The methodology for the vulnerability assessment of urban systems follows a framework 1 which has various components being a logical interconnection among them. The baseline when assessing the vulnerability of a given urban system is to identify the type of natural hazard it is exposed to the most. As a second step of the assessment the sensitivity of the urban system has to be mapped from a social, physical/structural and economic point of view. The sensitivity of the system can be mitigated by introducing adaptation solutions both from a technical, structural (hard) and regulatory, organization (soft) side. The impact assessment looks at the consequences of the identified climate hazard taking into the urban system s level of sensitivity and its capacity to adapt. The report ends with a comprehensive vulnerability assessment which combines all of the components of the logical framework and puts it into the context of Veszprém. EXPOSURE (CLIMATE STIMULUS) SENSITIVITY IMPACT WHERE WHAT ADAPTIVE CAPACITY WHO VULNERABILITY Figure 1: Concept of Vulnerability 1 Urban Regions: Vulnerabilities, Vulnerability Assessments by Indicators and Adaptation Options for Climate Change Impacts, ETC/ACC Technical Paper 2010/12 December

180 3 URBAN SYSTEM OF ENERGY SUPPLY The assessed energy supply urban system of Veszprém consists of two main business units: electricity and natural gas supply. The utility services are managed and maintained by the Hungarian branch of E.ON, a Düsseldorf based holding which is one of the world s largest investor-owned energy company 2. Due to cost efficiency considerations both the electricity and gas unit is controlled from a regional operations control center located in Pécs, responsible for the service of Western Hungary. The supply management, the regular maintenance and network development works are planned and governed from the Pécs center and the actual, day-to-day duties are carried out by E.ON Hungary s local technicians in Veszprém. The power supply of the city is provided by five voltage level networks, the residential consumers and the street lighting system are served through a 230 V and 400 V low-voltage network. Major consumers (e.g. industrial installations) and municipal transformers receive a medium-voltage power which is operating at 10 kv, 20 kv and 35 kv tensions. There are 120 kv and 400 kv power lines transmitting electricity in Veszprém s urban region. Veszprém receives its natural gas supply through the national high-pressure gas network s Papkeszi-Devecser 400 mm diameter pipeline and there are two gas transfer stations with a 20,000 gnm/hour capacity each EXPOSURE MAPPING The structured interview with E.ON Hungary s two network control professionals (electricity and natural gas) revealed the type of natural hazards that the energy supply urban system is exposed to the most in Veszprém. The professionals have around 30 years of experiences on damage control caused by natural hazards. According to their observations these phenomena are becoming more severe and frequent, extremities are becoming apparent. The major difference in the extent of exposure derives from the fact that the natural gas supply network is installed below the surface, hence it is more protected while most of the power supply s objects are located above ground. For this reason, the number of the identified natural hazards influencing the two branches of the energy supply urban system vary Veszprém city s urban development concept data collection, situation analysis, reviewed in February

181 3.1.1 Electricity supply 1. Heat waves 2. Cold waves 3. Flash floods caused by extreme amount of precipitation over a short period of time 4. Thunderstorms, mainly strong winds and lightning activity 5. Snowstorms 6. Hail Natural gas supply 1. Cold wave 2. Flash floods caused by extreme amount of precipitation over a short period of time 3.2 SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS Climate sensitivity of an urban system consists of three components: social, physical/structural and economic. These factors are more or less static, hence it is fairly difficult to change them over a short period of time. 4 This report assesses the sensitivity of the urban system by comparing each of the three climate sensitivity components with the identified natural hazards. According to the law on Electricity 5 the significant disruption to power supply is such an operational error that limits, hinders or ceases the production, the transmission, the distribution, the supply and the usage of electricity. This definition will be used as a baseline when looking at the sensitivity of the urban system. The sensitivity analysis also takes into account the trends observed by the respondent network control professionals, so climate change related natural hazards with little current effect were also included if future major changes could be predicted. 4 Urban Regions: Vulnerabilities, Vulnerability Assessments by Indicators and Adaptation Options for Climate Change Impacts, ETC/ACC Technical Paper 2010/12 December /LXXXVI. law on Electricity 5

182 3.2.1 Electricity urban system Sensitivity to heat waves Social factors The most prominent social factor which contributes to the sensitivity of the electricity supply urban system is the deteriorated working condition in times of heat waves. The metric of the troubleshooting and the regular maintenance work is measured in hours (n). During extremely hot temperatures technicians are not allowed to work on high-voltage columns for more than an hour in a row, regular rest periods have to be included so the security of power supply could be delayed by n+x hours. The health condition of the workforce is also satisfactory as the technicians have to undergo regular medical checkups as requested by the company. The level of sensitivity from social perspective is fairly low Physical/structural factors In case of most hazard types the general technical or physical condition of the given urban system is the major factor of the sensitivity. A minor part (24 kilometers) of the 319 kilometer cable network and some of the 352 transformers in Veszprém are outdated. Picture 1. Outdated plate structured transformer in Veszprém 6 6 Veszprém city s urban development concept data collection, situation analysis, reviewed in February

183 The transformers in poor condition and the 24 kilometer insulated cable is sensitive to extreme heat waves during peak loads when air conditioners and other chillers are operated on large scale in Veszprém. However the level of sensitivity based on self-perception is low Economic factors According to the gas and electricity network control professionals the energy urban system is moderately or not at all sensitive from an economic point of view. The operating license of the urban system issued by the Hungarian Energy and Public Utility Regulatory Authority (HEPURA) 7 requires the operating company to establish a so called Operational Safety Reserve which guarantees the financial background of the uninterrupted service. The interview also revealed that the consumer utility debts (residential and business debts) and receivables are planned and incorporated into the annual budget, furthermore E.ON Hungary has been producing profit thus the financing of the urban system is stable. According to accounting statements utility debts longer than 30 days are relatively rare in Veszprém compared with other Eastern Hungarian cities. E.ON Hungary disconnects a consumer with a utility debt longer than 60 days Sensitivity to cold waves: Social factors Just as in the case with heat waves the electricity urban system s social sensitivity to cold waves is based on the working conditions of the technician personnel. In times of extremely cold temperatures technicians have to be provided with warming facilities and regular breaks have to be inserted. If cold temperature is combined with the icing of the electric columns, maintenance work or troubleshooting cannot be performed at all. This case may affect smaller neighborhoods with outage for maximum 3 hours Government decree 285/2007. (X. 29.) 7

184 Physical/structural factors The 24 km long insulated overhead cable is potentially sensitive to cold waves as these parts could break easily if icing and contraction due to cold occur. However this is fairly rare in Veszprém so the level of sensitivity is negligible Economic factors See chapter 3.1.a Sensitivity to flash floods caused by extreme amount of precipitation Social factors Again the major component of the sensitivity is the work condition of the technicians in times of flash floods. When transformers are flooded and the electrical systems are soaked the field of intervention cannot be accessed due to the risk of electric shock. The transformers have to be dried and the repair process could be delayed by hours Physical/structural factors The main reason for physical sensitivity derives from the plate and concrete structured transformers relative location in Veszprém. The low-lying parts of Veszprém, like the northern parts and the Séd creek valley are potentially hazardous where the standalone transformers could be covered with water during flash floods. However due to the structural resilience of the transformers and the rare occurrence of flash floods the level of sensitivity based on self-perception is negligible Economic factors See chapter 3.1.a Sensitivity to thunderstorms: Social factors During severe thunderstorms extremely strong winds and lightning activity hinders maintenance and repair works, technicians cannot access to the work area. In addition it is forbidden by E.ON 8

185 Hungary s internal rules to carry out any maintenance or repair activity during windstorms and lightning. According to the professionals expert judgment these severe thunderstorms in Veszprém have been striking more often in May-June-July in the past decades so the level of sensitivity is mediocre Physical/structural factors A small percentage of the km long overhead power lines are exposed to potential break caused by fallen tree branches in times of thunderstorms with extreme wind gusts. This is more typical in green areas and in residential areas in the suburbs which is around 6% (approx. 782 ha) of the total area of Veszprém municipality. Even though severe thunderstorms are striking more often in Veszprém, the level of sensitivity is still low as the incidents are rare and minor compared with the major outages often occur in the Southern shore of Lake Balaton Economic factors See chapter 3.1.a Sensitivity to snowstorms Social factors In times of sever snowstorms when large amount of fallen snow blocks public roads, the most significant limiting factor is that the power mechanics cannot approach objects that need immediate repair. Some of the technician staff is commuting from the nearby settlements (Gyulafirátót and Kádárta) so even the access to work place could be problematic not to mention the limited access to the area of intervention. Snow blockages could slow down the repair and maintenance work processes but the level of sensitivity is rather low due to rare occurrence and the short duration of the electronic structures isolation. 9

186 Picture 2. Service car stuck in snow Physical/structural factors Some of the outdated overhead power lines are sensitive to the weight of deposited snow in mild temperatures when the snow is wet, dense and heavy. Snowstorms below freezing point can blow powder snow into transformers where electrical system could be soaked with melted snow. Since this happens fairly rare the level of sensitivity from a structural point of view is low Economic factors See chapter 3.1.a Sensitivity to hails Social factors: just as in the case of thunderstorms service personnel is not allowed to carry out any regular maintenance and repair work in time of severe hails. This could delay work with hours. Since hail incidences are causing maintenance and repair work limitations on a regular basis the level of sensitivity according to the professionals is mediocre. Physical/structural factors: the high voltage ceramic and glass insulators could be damaged by larger ice particles in severe hails. However this is very rare in Veszprém so the sensitivity level from a structural aspect is negligible. The newer plastic insulators are more resistant to hails than the ceramic and glass ones. 9 István Molnár, Head of operations control at E.ON Hungary, After the storm the effect and afterlife of the extreme weather at the distribution centers, 24 October

187 Economic factors: see chapter 3.1.a Natural gas supply urban system Sensitivity to cold waves: Social factors: similar to the case of the electricity urban system s social sensitivity the working conditions are the most important factor for natural gas supply urban system. The technicians have to be provided warming facilities. Since gas pipelines are installed underground the frozen soil hinders maintenance and repair works. Since such a degree of landscaping is quite rare in Veszprém, the level of sensitivity is low. Physical/structural factors: in rare cases some of the low-pressure gas pipelines in bad conditions could be sensitive to thermal contraction and as a result microcracks could appear which allows vapor and consequently water to enter the system. The penetrated water would then freeze eventually blocking the passage of gas in the pipeline. Since this scenario is quite unlikely in Veszprém, the level of sensitivity is negligible. However cold waves are becoming more apparent in the last years, thus the natural gas network professionals considered this natural hazard worth analyzing. Economic factors: see chapter 3.1.a Sensitivity to flash floods caused by extreme amount of precipitation: Social factors: the working conditions for technicians can deteriorate dramatically when flash flood occurs. The soaked soil does not allow to dig out pipelines and supporting the soil in the dugout ditch is extremely cumbersome. As regular maintenance work and immediate repair rarely coincide with severe flash floods the level of sensitivity is low. Physical/structural factors: the physical or structural sensitivity of the natural gas supply service greatly depends on its location in Veszprém. The gas pipelines below paved surfaces are not sensitive but the infrastructure may be exposed to flash floods in low density areas, mainly in the suburbs where the low-pressure pipelines are installed. The gas pipelines are somewhat sensitive in around 37% of the developed areas in Veszprém where flash-floods can wash out some parts of 11

188 the natural gas infrastructure. The level of sensitivity depending on the location of the pipeline could be low or negligible. Economic factors: see chapter 3.1.a. 3.3 ADAPTIVE CAPACITY ANALYSIS As the energy supply urban system s adaptation solutions are not designed to mitigate the impacts of specific natural hazards the chapter will look at general adaptation management options both from a technical/structural and regulatory/organizational point of view Electricity urban system a. Hard type (Technical/structural) adaptation solutions Expanding capacities: transformers can be converted to keep up with the increased electricity demand. This appliance is important during heat wave peak loads. Stockpiling reserves/substitutability: since the power line network is interconnected the damaged section can be bypassed and a reserve supply direction can be established. In case of longer outages backup generators are used to ensure uninterrupted supply. Logistic solutions: the dispatcher head office in Pécs has the ability to switch transformers and power lines remotely if it is needed in emergencies. Planned annual technological development: E.ON Hungary devotes around 35 billion forints for technological improvement annually in Hungary. When planning, engineers analyze the urban system s vulnerability: how many malfunctions occurred in that year, how sensitive the consumers were. Eventually they set up a ranking from the least to the most sensitive consumers. With this, interventions can be better planned. Regular maintenance: a designated maintenance financial framework covers the costs of the ad-hoc and the planned maintenance works. The company performs 12,000 maintenance works in a year. 10 Adaptive construction solutions: installing uninterruptable power supplies (UPSs) and upgrading transformers for better resilience. 10 István Molnár, Head of operations control at E.ON Hungary, After the storm the effect and afterlife of the extreme weather at the distribution centers, 24 October

189 b. Soft (Regulatory, organizational and management) type adaptation solutions Risk assessment: the government decree on critical infrastructure protection 11 (CIP) requires the given sector to perform risk assessments. E.ON Hungary has identified hazards and defined risk levels using its own measurements. Preparedness and emergency planning: E.ON Hungary has its own incident and emergency response plan as well as a so called Emergency Guidance which allows technicians to rely on an updated, scenario based intervention plan. Monitoring system: E.ON Hungary carries out diagnostic measurements which include e.g. system heating measurements or medium-voltage system measurements. Research and development: the Technical University of Budapest 12 has established cooperation with E.ON Hungary on forecasting long term (20-30 years) network development trends with a special focus on climate change. Another research collaboration with the Electric Power Research Institute Ltd. aimed to improve electricity supply in Veszprém region. Information systems: Maraton Terra application is an emergency management communication system as a part of the protection management network. 13 The system uses a Unified Digital Radio System (EDR) technology which allows critical infrastructure professionals and the disaster management specialists to immediately establish contact under a protected line. E.ON Hungary has a permanent cooperation with the National Directorate General for Disaster Management in case of emergency situations Natural gas supply urban system Since most of the adaptation solutions developed by E.ON Hungary is not natural hazard or urban system specific the technical/structural and regulatory, organizational and management type adaptation options of the natural gas supply urban system is similar to the electricity ones. a. Hard type (Technical/structural) adaptation solutions 11 Government decree 2080/2008. (VI. 30.)

190 Expanding capacities: natural gas cannot be substituted with alternative hydrocarbons in an urban setting as most of the appliances are optimized to burn gas. However continuous network development allows E.ON Hungary to expand capacities in Veszprém. Stockpiling reserves/substitutability: E.ON Hungary was accumulating gas reserves by its E.ON Natural Gas Storage Ltd. until recently when the Hungarian government acquisitioned the business 14, thus gas storage will be managed centrally by the state owned MVM (Hungarian Electric Works) Ltd. Logistic solutions: such as in the case of electricity the natural gas supply security can be ensured with the remote control of pressure and gas flow direction from the operations control center in Pécs. Planned annual technological development Adaptive construction solutions: applying latest technological standards. Upgrading pressure control cabinets and gas transfer stations for better resilience. b. Soft (Regulatory, organizational and management) type adaptation solutions Risk assessment: see 4.1.b. Preparedness and emergency planning: see 4.1.b. Monitoring system: see 4.1.b. Research and development: E.ON Hungary runs pilot projects involving universities and using appliances provided by manufacturers. Information systems: see 4.1.b. 3.4 IMPACT ASSESSMENT The assessed climate stimuli to which the urban system is exposed could entail direct and indirect impacts. The following chapter will separately analyze these impacts on the electricity and gas supply urban system in Veszprém based on observations by experts Electricity urban system a. Heat waves Direct impacts:

191 Direct physical, financial damage: during peak loads in extreme heat waves lasting for more than 3 consecutive days transformers and cables could burn out due to overheating. Hampering the operation of the urban system: peak load malfunctions can only cause local problems, maximum a block could be affected by an outage. Indirect impacts: Revenue forgone due to outage: the financial loss is not significant because it affects only small number of consumers for a short period of time (hours). Financial loss due to the shutdown of the urban system: only if objects are physically damaged and/or intentionally abused and appliances need replacement b. Cold waves Direct impacts: Direct physical, financial damage: cables can break due to thermal contraction and frost buildup Indirect impacts: Revenue forgone due to outage: the financial loss is not significant because it affects only small number of consumers for a short period of time Financial loss due to the shutdown of the urban system c. Flash flood: Direct impacts: Direct physical, financial damage: water can leak into transformers causing circuit failures. d. Thunderstorms: Direct impacts: Direct physical, financial damage: trees could fell and break overhead cables bearing a high risk of electric shock for people approaching the scene. These incidents could also damage the pylons themselves. During thunderstorms lightning could strike through the cables insulation causing it to immediately burn. 15

192 Hampering the operation of the urban system: such incidents could result in local outages affecting several blocks. Indirect impacts: Revenue forgone due to outage: since outages last a relatively short period of time and affect a relatively small circle of consumers the revenue forgone is minimal. e. Snowstorms: Direct impacts: Direct physical, financial damage: there are various impacts related to snowstorms. Mild temperature snowstorms are problematic since the heavy, wet and deposited snow could break overhead cables. Snowstorms below freezing point with high wind speed can blow powder snow through the gaps of the transformer facilities causing circuit failures. Frozen couplers and broken pylons also occur in severe thunderstorms just as in the case of the 14 March 2013 incident whereby 100 km/h wind gusts were combined with significant amount of snow and very low temperatures in Veszprém region. 15 Hampering the operation of the urban system: one of the most important consequence is that snow blockages created by strong wind and extreme amount of snow do not allow technicians to access the field of intervention so uninterrupted operation of the electricity supply cannot be guaranteed until the way has not been cleared. 15 István Molnár, Head of operations control at E.ON Hungary, After the storm the effect and afterlife of the extreme weather at the distribution centers, 24 October

193 Picture 3 & 4. Built-up snow on overhead cables; insulations and bindings covered with snow powder 16 Indirect impacts: f. Hail Faltering maintenance of the urban system: snowstorm incidents slow down maintenance and repair works Revenue forgone due to outage Financial loss due to the shutdown of the urban system Direct impacts: Direct physical, financial damage: insulations of the overhead cables could break by heavier ice particles Natural gas supply urban system a. Cold waves: Direct impacts: Direct physical, financial damage: during extremely cold temperatures, so called ice plugs could form in the low-pressure pipelines when the amount of gas in the system is 16 István Molnár, Head of operations control at E.ON Hungary, After the storm the effect and afterlife of the extreme weather at the distribution centers, 24 October

194 insufficient. In these cases water vapor could enter through micro cracks and freeze. This is more apparent in case of consumer s low-pressure pipelines. Hampering the operation of the urban system: since ice plug formation only affects lowpressure pipelines cold waves have maximum block size impacts. Indirect impacts: Revenue forgone due to outage Illnesses, injuries due to outage b. Flash floods: Direct impacts: Direct physical, financial damage: pipelines that are installed shallow can be washed out by the heavy precipitation. The exposed pipelines are more vulnerable to micro damages. Water vapor can penetrate through these micro cracks which may cause system failures. However these cases are fairly rare. The reconstruction of the damaged site is also costly as landscaping requires lots of man-hours and machinery. 3.5 VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT It can be generally said that the energy supply urban system s vulnerability to natural hazards in Veszprém is currently low. The privately owned energy company, E.ON Hungary maintains a high level of technical standard, quality control and supply security. It has a stable financial background, accumulates reserves, ensures an uninterrupted operation, controls damages in a quick and efficient way and performs regular technical developments. It has an efficient asset management and governance system. Sensitivity analysis and impact assessment showed that the electricity supply urban system is more vulnerable to rapidly developing, intense natural hazards like thunderstorms and snowstorms, 18

195 while the natural gas supply urban system is more vulnerable to cold wave which is a lingering event. Even though present vulnerability is relatively low there are trends that anticipate this might change in the next decades. Studies show that the climate in Veszprém County in the next 80 years will be different than the current one: the average temperature will increase and thunderstorm events will be more extreme 17. Apart from the increased level exposure there are governance issue that might contribute to higher vulnerability. Currently the operations control center in Pécs covers the management of the urban system which is 166 km far from Veszprém. Although remote controlling offers solutions for damage control local disaster incidents can be best managed locally with local know-how. This problem will be more apparent when natural hazards will strike the energy supply urban system more frequently and severely. The mandatory overhead expense reduction prescribed by the Government 18 is also a source of risk as utility bills have to be reduced by 20%. This foregone revenue may divert or halt investments in infrastructure development and technical improvement. Consequently the physical condition and the quality of workforce of the urban system can deteriorate causing a higher level of sensitivity and eventually increased vulnerability. 17 Gabriella Szépszó, Krüzselyi Ilona, Péter Szabó; Climate projections for Veszprém, Hungarian Met Office, /LIV. Law on the execution of the overhead expense reduction 19

196 4 URBAN SYSTEM OF WATER SUPPLY The provision of good quality drinking water in sufficient quantity is a basic need for the society % of Veszprém s residential households are connected to the public water supply network, which is operated by Bakonykarszt Plc. This company is owned by 121 local governments of Veszprém County. The totality of Veszprém s drinking water (and also the water for industrial use) is obtained from the karst resources of the foothills of High Bakony 19. There are four water resource areas that supply the settlement with water, namely: the Kádárta, the Aranyosvölgy, the Gyulafirátót and the Séd-völgy (Séd-valley) water resource areas and in addition, Tekeres-völgy (Tekeres-valley) as a back-up. The water production capacity of the four main resources is 5000, 5640, 7520 and m3/day respectively, i.e. a total of about 40,000 m3/day 20. Considering the demand side, Veszprém and the surrounding settlements consume m3/day on average, which may rise to 12,300 m3/day in peak time (as of 2008) 21. Water consumption has significantly decreased over the past two decades 22 due to the augmented price of water compared to what was usual in the socialist era 23. The water resource areas are located principally at the edges of the city 24 (also see Figure 2), while engine rooms and reservoirs are situated in the central part of the settlement Bakonykarszt Víz- és Csatornamű Zrt. 2013a,b 20 Veszprém Megyei Jogú Város Önkormányzata, 2010; Bakonykarszt Víz- és Csatornamű Zrt. 2013a 21 Veszprém Megyei Jogú Város Önkormányzata, Bakonykarszt Víz- és Csatornamű Zrt. 2008, Bakonykarszt Víz- és Csatornamű Zrt. 2013b 23 Bakonykarszt Víz- és Csatornamű Zrt. 2013b 24 Veszprém Megyei Jogú Város Önkormányzata 2013a 25 Veszprém Megyei Jogú Város Önkormányzata 2013a 20

197 Figure 2: Water resource areas of Veszprém 26 Veszprém is in the same water distribution system with Szentkirályszabadja, Kádárta and Gyulafirátót and in the future it will also get broader to reach Nemesvámos, Hidegkút and Tótvázsony EXPOSURE MAPPING The natural hazards that could cause the most damage to the water supply system are identified to be two extremities of the precipitation pattern, namely: 1. heavy precipitation, 2. reduced precipitation Reduced precipitation may cause disturbances if there was such a period of drought where the level of karst water would decrease. The occurrence of such phenomenon does not only depend on the quantity of the precipitation but also the intensity of the rainfall; namely, less of the same amount of light rain soaks to the soil than heavy rain, due to evaporation 28. If the level of karst water would decrease by more than 15 meters compared to the 2013 level, serious damages could take place Bakonykarszt Víz- és Csatornamű Zrt. 2013a 27 Bakonykarszt Víz- és Csatornamű Zrt. 2013a 28 Bella Bakonykarszt Víz- és Csatornamű Zrt. 2013b 21

198 Heavy precipitation may cause harm by intense rainfalls and flash floods. The rain shower is classified as heavy if the rate of accumulation is more than 10 mm/hour 30. Other natural hazards Mass movement might cause damage of the pipeworks laid in the soil. 31 Storms and intense snowing can harm the electricity system, which is crucial for the correct operation of the drinking water supply system. 4.2 SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS Sensitivity to heavy rainfall Physical/structural factors Direct The water intake plants are located in a bare karst landscape 32, i.e. the water resource is directly recharged by precipitation 33. This induces that pollution from the surface can rather easily filter into the water intake plant 34, endangering the quality of the drinking water, which phenomenon is enhanced by heavy rainfalls. 35 In particular, this is a considerable threat in case of agricultural areas (which cover 37,892,412 m2 i.e % of Veszprém s total territory 36 ), where the chemicals, fertilizers and pesticides can get washed down to the karst water. Similarly, pollution from vehicles oil, fuel, etc. in transportation areas (which cover 8,380,596 m2 i.e. 6.56% of Veszprém s total territory 37 ) can also get washed down by heavy rains, that is why these areas have to be taken into account as a factor of sensitivity. 30 Met Office Bakonykarszt Víz- és Csatornamű Zrt. 2013c 32 Bakonykarszt Víz- és Csatornamű Zrt. 2013b 33 Szegedi Tudományegyetem Bakonykarszt Víz- és Csatornamű Zrt. 2013a, b 35 Bakonykarszt Víz- és Csatornamű Zrt. 2013b 36 Veszprém Megyei Jogú Város Önkormányzata 2013a 37 Veszprém Megyei Jogú Város Önkormányzata 2013a 22

199 On one hand, sealed surfaces prevent that the mixture of pollution and rain water filters down to the soil and the water intake plant underneath. On the other hand, by holding back, this liquid gets accumulated and its runoff becomes more intensive on sealed surfaces. As a result, once it gets to an unsealed surface, it filters down with even more power, possibly taking further pollution to water. The water quality can also be harmed due to the rise of the level of karst water (caused by increased precipitation), once its level reaches Veszprém s landfill site (situated in a previous mine hole), which is not insulated. Polluting substances from the waste can get washed to the drinking water. 38 Due to the lie of the land a number of wastewater pump stations are in operation all over the city, 39 in details, 11 such stations operate within municipality boundaries. Heavy rains may cause the overload of the sewage system and wastewater can overspill at the above mentioned wastewater pump station and filter into the drinking water 40. Presently this is observed to happen 1-2 times in 2-3 years. Indirect: The dependency of the drinking water supply system on electricity is most significant as practically the whole system, the coordination and operation of the machinery water pumps, data transfer systems and dispatcher centres, connections between wells and water stations rely on it. 41 Should any natural hazard in the present assumption heavy rains damage the electricity supply, it can indirectly harm the drinking water supply system. 42 Sensitivity to reduced precipitation Social factors: In periods of reduced precipitation/drought, the water supply system faces a higher demand for water than on average 43 (resulting from e.g. need for irrigation in agriculture, need for more water consumption by the chronically ill), while the level of karst water is lower, i.e. the quantity of potential drinking water is less than average. 38 Bakonykarszt Víz- és Csatornamű Zrt. 2013a 39 Bakonykarszt Víz- és Csatornamű Zrt Bakonykarszt Víz- és Csatornamű Zrt. 2013b 41 Bakonykarszt Víz- és Csatornamű Zrt. 2013c 42 Bakonykarszt Víz- és Csatornamű Zrt. 2013b 43 Bakonykarszt Víz- és Csatornamű Zrt. 2013b 23

200 Physical/structural factors: As a consequence of reduced precipitation, the water resources of Veszprém do not get renewed and thus the quantity of potential drinking water reduces. Should there be some precipitation, (overly) sealed surfaces of the city prevent any rainwater from filtering down to the soil and regenerating the water resource underneath. 4.3 ADAPTIVE CAPACITY ANALYSIS The institution that owns and manages the water supply system assesses that the general conditions of the system are good. Bakonykarszt Plc. has an excellent management with long expertise. With flexible, innovative approach, technological development has taken place since the 70 s in the form of refurbishment of water conduits, technical innovations, process control system, and dispatchers centre for example. Each and every stage of the water supply is assisted by IT. Connection between institutions in case of a havaria situation a. Hard type (Technical/structural) adaptation solutions Three water pressure zones have been built in Veszprém. The interconnection between these zones enables the water flow to be directed, which adds reliability to the supply should a part of the system need to be taken out of service. 44 There are 84 wells in the region of Veszprém, 20 of which are in continuous operation, 5 are active back-ups (ready to start working anytime), and 11 are out of operation (passive back-ups). 48 wells are monitoring wells, 16 of which are designed to be able to serve a possible increased demand in the future. 45 A network of monitoring wells is operated by Bakonykarszt Plc, which allows for timely detection of pollution before it reaches a water production spot, so appropriate response action can be taken. 46 The totality of the territory of Veszprém is a protective area as defined by law. This means that all human including agricultural, industrial and economic activities are limited and 44 Bakonykarszt Víz- és Csatornamű Zrt. 2013a, b 45 Bakonykarszt Víz- és Csatornamű Zrt. 2013a 46 Bakonykarszt Víz- és Csatornamű Zrt. 2013a 24

201 regulated in details on the territory. The establishment of those zones is much costly but much effective as well. All pipework, equipment and taps are regularly maintained, refurbished and replaced if needed 47. Bakonykarszt Plc. is first in the country among water supply utility companies regarding the ratio of modernization. 48 In case of smaller disturbances, spare pumps can be put into operation. b. Soft (Regulatory, organizational and management) type adaptation solutions For each water resource area a list is available on potential pollution sources and a proposal for how to keep these areas safe. Government Decree 123/1997. (VII. 18.) Korm. on the protection of water resource areas. Government Decree 201/2001. (X.25.) regulates the quality requirements of drinking water and the requirements for monitoring. 49 The actual number of monitoring examination exceeds the one prescribed by law. 50 Key points of the network are examined on a regular basis, even more often than required by law. The quality of the water is monitored in a continuous manner. The results are subject to strict cross-check by several institutions (labs, water technology unit, National Public Health and Medical Officer Service) in order to guarantee timely measures to keep high quality of the water. Water management is subject to obligation of regular data provision. Bakonykarszt Plc. has and works according to ISO qualification. The company has developed a range of Managerial Ordinances, Standards, Internal Regulations, Operational Regulations, Operational Ordinances and Technological Ordinances to guarantee that the negative impacts are handled as appropriate. Plans are available for yearly refurbishment, modernization and regular maintenance. 47 Bakonykarszt Víz- és Csatornamű Zrt. 2013c 48 Bakonykarszt Víz- és Csatornamű Zrt. 2013b 49 Bakonykarszt Víz- és Csatornamű Zrt. 2013a, b 50 Bakonykarszt Víz- és Csatornamű Zrt. 2013b 25

202 In case a breakdown prevents a consumer to get water from the network for more than 6 hours, Bakonykarszt Plc. is obliged by law to deliver at least 10 litres of water per person. Present legal regulations (Government Decree 219/2004 in particular) do not support to avoid exaggerated sealing of the surfaces by the application of technical solutions, which could ensure a balance between managing the risks represented by increased precipitation and the risks represented by decreased precipitation in this aspect. 4.4 IMPACT ASSESSMENT Only temporary and small disturbances are expected to take place in the foreseeable short and medium term. Moreover, direct physical and financial damages can occur. In case of the lack of a constant high quality of the drinking water supply, the city could become the centre of epidemics. 4.5 VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT All aspects of the system s sensitivity stem from two main factors, the water resources situation in a bare karst landscape and the dependency from electricity. Sealed areas can be both advantageous and disadvantageous in terms of sensitivity of the system, which requires careful assessment. Neither too much nor too little precipitation is favourable and yet no balancing techniques have been developed to save water from periods of too much precipitation to decrease impacts in periods with less precipitation than demanded. 5 URBAN SYSTEM OF DRAINAGE The proper functioning of the drainage system serves not only for the convenience of people but it is of fundamental interest for public health Bakonykarszt Víz- és Csatornamű Zrt. 2013b 26

203 The major part, 95% of the drainage system of Veszprém is separate, which means that there are two separate sub-systems for the foul water (sewage) and the surface water (rainwater). Only the centre of the city has some old combined drains, i.e. where the two materials are conveyed together. The sewage system, consisting of closed pipeworks of more than 220 km, is managed by Bakonykarszt Plc. The rainwater drainage system, which mostly consists of open pits and reservoirs, is mainly operated by the Local Government; the closed rainwater pipes are managed by Bakonykarszt Plc. 52 Channels exclusively for rainwater can be found only in the city centre and in the newly built neighbourhoods. In the other areas of the city, the rainwater flows over the surface until it reaches Séd creek. 53 The outfall for the sewerage sub-system is also Séd creek, but of course wastewater is treated before running into the natural water body. An area of m2 is dedicated for sewage treatment; the treatment plant (also managed by Bakonykarszt Plc.) is located at the northern part of the city, to the north from the railway, next to Jutaspuszta 54. It works with a three-stage technology, namely, physical, biological and nutrient removal processes. In dry weather, thousand m3 of sewage is treated in the plant per day 55. About 25 thousand flats, more than 95% of the residential buildings of Veszprém are connected to the sewage network (as of 2010) 56. However, there are still some suburban areas where while water supply is available the drainage system has not yet been built Exposure Rainwater drainage The assessment of the rainwater drainage system is mainly based on literature review and to a minor extent, indirect remarks from representatives of Bakonykarszt Plc. 52 Veszprém Megyei Jogú Város Önkormányzata 2013a 53 Veszprém Megyei Jogú Város Önkormányzata 2013a 54 Veszprém Megyei Jogú Város Önkormányzata 2013a 55 Veszprém Megyei Jogú Város Önkormányzata 2013a, b 56 Veszprém Megyei Jogú Város Önkormányzata 2013a 57 Veszprém Megyei Jogú Város Önkormányzata 2013b 27

204 According to expert review, the most important natural hazards this urban system is exposed to are heavy precipitation and flash floods Wastewater drainage A structured interview was conducted with the representatives of Bakonykarszt Plc. on the sewage system. In their view, the most important natural hazard this urban system is exposed to is heavy precipitation. Heavy rains may cause harm by intense rainfalls and flash floods. The rain shower is classified as heavy if the rate of accumulation is more than 10 mm/hour 58. Furthermore, mass movements were ranked as the second most important natural hazard the sewage system can be exposed to. 5.2 Sensitivity analysis Rainwater drainage Social factors A number of residents have filled in the rainwater drainage pits. 59 Certain sections of the bank of Séd creek are situated right next to private gardens, which makes it difficult to carry out maintenance works on the stream bed Physical factors The closed pipes to convey rainwater are made of brick, concrete or plastic and have a diameter of cm. 60 Sealed surfaces prevent the rain water from filtering down to the soil, consequently holding it back and accumulating it. Natural areas (blue and green surfaces) such as ponds and soakaways can enable excess storm water to soak naturally back into the ground 58 Met Office Bakonykarszt Víz- és Csatornamű Zrt. 2013b 60 Bakonykarszt Víz- és Csatornamű Zrt

205 5.2.2 Wastewater drainage Sensitivity to heavy rainfalls Social factors According to paragraph (5) of Article 85 of the Government Decree 58/2013. (II. 27.) Korm. 61, it is prohibited to conduct rainwater to the sewage system in case of separate drainage. However, according to the unanimous observations of the interviewees, a number of residents in most cases through ignorance illegally do connect storm drains to the sewerage through the sewer lateral Physical factors The major part of the wastewater system relies on gravity. 62 However, as mentioned above, due to the lie of the land a number of wastewater pump stations are in operation all over the city 63. Namely, 11 such stations operate within municipality boundaries. Presently, the sewerage network as a whole works at close to full capacity. 64 The foul water drains have a diameter of cm 65 Due to the constant burden of heavy vehicles in transportation areas (which cover 8,380,596 m2 i.e. 6.56% of Veszprém s total territory) 66, pit covers can be damaged or broken, which may let excess rainwater filter into the sewerage system. The drains are often clogged 67. This can be explained by the fact that in the last 15 years, probably due to the rising prices as well as the economic downturn, water consumption has significantly decreased. As a result, less wastewater gets to the sewerage than what it had been designed for. According to physics, this slows down the flow of the sewage, which consequently can carry less sludge and thus considerable amount of solid waste gets accumulated at the bottom of the pipes, causing blockages Veszprém Megyei Jogú Város Önkormányzata 2013a 63 Bakonykarszt Víz- és Csatornamű Zrt Bakonykarszt Víz- és Csatornamű Zrt. 2013b 65 Bakonykarszt Víz- és Csatornamű Zrt Veszprém Megyei Jogú Város Önkormányzata 2013a 67 Bakonykarszt Víz- és Csatornamű Zrt. 2013b 68 Bakonykarszt Víz- és Csatornamű Zrt

206 Sensitivity to mass movements Physical factors The risk stemming from mass movements shall be taken into account particularly in areas where the soil substantially contains clay 69. There are four soil monitoring points in Veszprém (indicated on the map below) 70, the data of which have been used for the purpose of the present study as a reference; in the areas of three monitoring points out of the four, namely, around Veszprém-Gyulafirátót (I1319 on the map), Csatár-hegy (S5019) and the point indicated as E6419, clay is an important substance in the soil. On this basis it can be assumed that Veszprém has extensive areas covered with clay soil in the northern part of the city. Figure 3: Soil protection Information and Monitoring Points (Source: Veszprém Megyei Kormányhivatal Növény és Talajvédelmi Igazgatósága) 69 Bakonykarszt Víz- és Csatornamű Zrt. 2013b 70 Veszprém Megyei Jogú Város Önkormányzata 2013a 30

207 The majority of foul water drains are made of concrete or plastic. The minority are made of stone and brick Economic factors In the recent years, Bakonykarszt Plc. has had to face a reduced budget that could be dedicated for the refurbishment of the infrastructure. 5.3 Adaptive capacity Rainwater drainage Hard Rainwater drainage system is being built and/or modernized, particularly in districts not yet connected to the closed pipes network. 72 The bed of Séd creek is modernized with prefabricated revetment, which helps not only the drainage of rainwater but also the preventive maintenance Soft The City Development Committee has initiated the development of a detailed map examining where Veszprém has problems with the drainage of rainwater. 74,75 This also helps the Local Government identify the needs and plan the next steps for the drainage system s refurbishment. The city has won tenders for financial support for further building of the rainwater system and refurbishment works 76. Bakonykarszt Plc. reported that there is no dedicated direct connection or warning system with other institutions regarding rainwater flash floods. However, they do not consider it as a problem because they expect the Disaster Management Directorate to take the lead on any necessary steps. 71 Bakonykarszt Víz- és Csatornamű Zrt See for example TÁ See for example TÁ Füssy Veszprém Megyei Jogú Város Önkormányzata See for example TÁ

208 5.3.2 Wastewater drainage Hard Bakonykarszt Plc. ranks first in the country considering the ratio of refurbished drains compared to the length of the total drainage. Refurbishment works take place continually. The company runs smoke tests in a regular manner to reveal broken or cracked pipes and illegal cross-connections between the sewer and storm drain. In details, a small section of the sewer system gets isolated and smoke is blown through that section. If the smoke rises to the surface, it means that where it exits through a defect, the rain water can enter the system in the same way. In order to prevent blockages, the pipes and the whole network are regularly examined with industrial cameras, watertight tests and other methods. Discovering problematic areas in a timely manner helps to avoid sewage flooding. 77 The sewage treatment plant has a by-pass pipe, which could be used to mitigate the outstanding amount of incoming sewage Soft The city has won tenders for financial support (from the EU Cohesion Fund) for further building of the sewage system, replacement of sewer mains and refurbishment works. According to paragraph (5) of Article 85 of the Government Decree 58/2013. (II. 27.) Korm. 78, it is prohibited to conduct rainwater to the sewage system in case of separate drainage. In case the residents are revealed to have cross-connected the storm drain to the sewerage, they have to pay a fine. The company has ISO qualification and works according to its standards. Bakonykarszt Plc. has 15-year development plans. The company also has a detailed schedule for the examination of defected sewers. Plans are available for yearly refurbishment, modernization and regular maintenance. 77 Bakonykarszt Víz- és Csatornamű Zrt

209 Bakonykarszt Plc has developed a range of Managerial Ordinances, Standards, Internal Regulations, Operational Regulations, Operational Ordinances and Technological Ordinances to guarantee that negative impacts are handled as appropriate Self-assessment The institution that owns and manages the sewerage system assesses that the general conditions of the system are good. 5.4 Impact analysis Rainwater drainage Direct There is a risk of flash floods happening at Séd creek. Such event could be observed for example in 2005, 2008 and Indirect If excess rainwater cannot drain off, public roads and buildings can get damaged because of the captured water, resulting in high costs of recovery/ indemnity. In case of such flash floods, not only may local transport suffer from disturbances, but higher risk of accidents should be also considered Wastewater drainage Heavy precipitation According to the recent data analysis of Veszprem s Local Government 79, rainy days augment the quantity of the (watered up) sewage to be treated at Veszprém s treatment plant by daily 3-4 thousand m3 on average (from thousand m3). According to older data 80, due to raining, the quantity of the sewage is times more than thousand m3 of dry days (which is thousand m3). Obviously, in case rainwater finds a way to get to the sewerage (because of illegal crossconnections or damaged pipes or pit covers as described in the sensitivity analysis), heavy rains 79 Veszprém Megyei Jogú Város Önkormányzata 2013a 80 Veszprém Megyei Jogú Város Önkormányzata

210 can cause a shocking overload to the system. The small-diameter pipes have been designed for wastewater exclusively (taking into account the surrounding population) and are not capable to carry away a vast amount of additional rainwater at such an intense pace. If the system is actually capable to carry away the amplified amount of thin sewage, it can still have negative impacts. The adverse consequences can be summarized as follows. Firstly, as a result of the excess usage of the pipelines, the energy costs to carry away sewage increase. 81 Secondly, the costs of the system also increase because the watering up of the sewage can cause disturbances in the technology of the treatment plant. The biological communities that are used in the process of sewage treatment are sensitive to load variation; in simple terms, the useful bacteria can be washed out from the treatment plant. It may take weeks until the wastewater can be treated as efficiently as originally. What is more, until then the less efficiently treated sewage may damage the natural water body it falls out to 82, in this case, the Séd creek. Otherwise, expensive technological adjustments are needed to appropriately treat thinner sewage. Such costs are shifted to end-consumers by including them in the utility costs. Thirdly, the wastewater may pour onto the surface from the tunnels, inundating roads and properties. This situation is worsened if the pipes happen to be clogged. Not only is this situation unpleasant, harming the life quality of people, but it also increases the risk of infections 83 and is a considerable environmental risk. Besides, it can incur significant costs because of damages. In addition, transport suffers from the same disturbances as in case of (pure) rainwater flash floods. Such cases happen no more than 10 times a year. At wastewater pump stations, heavy rains may cause the overload of the sewage system and wastewater can overspill and filter into the drinking water 84. Presently this is observed to happen 1-2 times in a time span of 2-3 years. 81 Dunántúli Regionális Vízmű Zrt Bakonykarszt Víz- és Csatornamű Zrt. 2013b; Green Terv Kft BÁCSVÍZ Zrt Bakonykarszt Víz- és Csatornamű Zrt.2013b 34

211 Mass movements Direct Mass movements involve the risk that the pipeworks in the ground can strain and get cracked or broken, which may lead to the infiltration of rainwater and groundwater into the sewerage. Indirect As a result, the indirect impacts of mass movements on the sewage system are in the end the same as the direct and indirect impacts of heavy rainfalls on the sewage system described above. 5.5 Vulnerability assessment The adaptive capacity of Veszprém s two drainage sub-systems vis-à-vis the threats of heavy rains (and mass movements) is considered appropriate at present, taking into consideration primarily the ongoing modernization and continual maintenance. Vulnerability could be further decreased by two factors. Most importantly, there is room to improve the cooperation with Veszprem s population; raise public awareness on the prohibition and negative consequences of connecting rainwater to the wastewater system and incentivise them to act accordingly. It is also to be noted that the need for an even closer cooperation (e.g. a clearly defined warning system with a pre-determined information flow for unexpected extreme events) between the stakeholder institutions (Local Government, Bakonykarszt Plc., Pápakörnyéki Vízitársulat etc.) might worth being considered by stakeholders. 35

212 6 Sources BAKONYKARSZT VÍZ- ÉS CSATORNAMŰ ZRT. (2008) Tájékoztató. Budapest: "ÜVEGHÁZ"-2001 BT. BAKONYKARSZT VÍZ- ÉS CSATORNAMŰ ZRT. (2013a) A város ivóvízellátása [Online] Available at: [Accessed: 21 October 2013] BAKONYKARSZT VÍZ- ÉS CSATORNAMŰ ZRT. (2013b) Assessing the climate vulnerability of water supply and drainage in Veszprem and its surroundings. [Interview]. 28 October 2013 BAKONYKARSZT VÍZ- ÉS CSATORNAMŰ ZRT. (2013c) A víz útja a kutaktól a csapokig. Miért kerül annyiba az ivóvíz? Available at: BÁCSVÍZ Zrt. (2013) Csatornahasználati ismeretek [Online] Available at: [Accessed 29 October] BELLA Sz. (2003) Magyarország egyes tájainak aszályérzékenysége. Budapest: ELTE, Meteorológia Tanszék. BOGNÁR Balázs (2013) A katasztrófavédelem területén kiépített és alkalmazott MARATHON rendszer. Available at: DUNÁNTÚLI REGIONÁLIS VÍZMŰ ZRT. (2010) A csapadékvíz szennyvízcsatornába vezetésének következményei. Vízmondó 2010 / IV. [Online] Available at: FÜSSY A. (2008) Folytatódnak a csatornázási munkák Veszprémben, közel 9 millió euróra pályázunk / ülésezett a városfejlesztési bizottság. Vehir.hu. [Online] Available at: millio-eurora-palyazunk-ulesezett-a-varosfejlesztesi-bizottsag [Accessed 14 October 2013] GREEN TERV KFT. (2011) Esővíz hasznosítás [Online] Available at: [Accessed 29 October 2013] MET OFFICE UK (2011) National Meteorological Library and Archive Fact sheet No. 3 Water in the atmosphere. Available at: _Water_in_the_Atmosphere.pdf MOLNÁR István, Head of operations control at E.ON Hungary (2013) After the storm the effect and afterlife of the extreme weather at the distribution centers, 24 October 2013 SCHAUSER I. et al. (2010) Urban Regions: Vulnerabilities, Vulnerability Assessments by Indicators and Adaptation Options for Climate Change Impacts, ETC/ACC Technical Paper 2010/12 December European Topic Centre on Air and Climate Change 36

213 SZEGEDI TUDOMÁNYEGYETEM (2013) Vízföldtani Alapfogalmak. Available at SZÉPSZÓ G., KRÜZSELYI I., SZABÓ P. (2013) Climate projections for Veszprém. Hungarian Met Office TÁ (2013) 170 millió forintból építenek csapadékvíz-elvezető csatornát Veszprémben. Magyar Nemzet Online. [Online] Available at: [Accessed 14 October 2013] VESZPRÉM MEGYEI JOGÚ VÁROS ÖNKORMÁNYZATA (2008) Tájékoztató Veszprém város évi környezeti állapotáról. Available at: mid=18 VESZPRÉM MEGYEI JOGÚ VÁROS ÖNKORMÁNYZATA (2010) Tájékoztató Veszprém város évi környezeti állapotáról. Available at: VESZPRÉM MEGYEI JOGÚ VÁROS ÖNKORMÁNYZATA (2013a) Veszprém Megyei Jogú Város Településfejlesztési Koncepció Felülvizsgálata I. kötet Adatgyűjtés Helyzetelemzés Véleményezési dokumentáció. Available at: VESZPRÉM MEGYEI JOGÚ VÁROS ÖNKORMÁNYZATA (2013b) Veszprém Megyei Jogú Város Településfejlesztési Koncepció Felülvizsgálata II. kötet Településfejlesztési koncepció. Available at: 37

214 7 ANNEXES 1. Geographical location of Veszprém 85 Veszprém is situated in Central Transdanubia around 110 km West from Budapest and 15 km North from Lake Balaton. Veszprém s exact geographical location is between the Northern and Southern Bakony Mountains in the Veszprém-Devecser trench at the North-Eastern end of the Balaton Highlands along the Séd creek. Veszprém s morphology is relatively various, the settlement is determined by its quickly changing hill-valley pattern, it is also called the city of seven hills. The city is the administrational centre of Veszprém County. The average elevation of Veszprém is 260 meters above sea level which ranks as the highest county center in Hungary. The functional subdivision of the city comprises a historical city center with the castle district, residential area with detached housing and storey housing zones and industrial, logistic zone. Veszprém lies across a 128 km 2 area. Map 1: geographical location of Veszprém 85 The Great Encyclopedia of Hungary (Magyar Nagylexikon, 2004), Magyar Nagylexikon Kiadó (Publisher), Budapest 38

215 2. Population statistics 86 The total population of Veszprém based on the latest census conducted in 2011 is 61,721 which is 1.8% less than the population of The population density is person/km 2. The age structure of the city is as follows: 0-14 years: 13% years: 3% years: 62% 60- years: 22% There are 1,108 women per a thousand men so the female population is around 10% higher than the male one mainly because of men s early mortality rate. 100 women gave birth to 134 infants which is the lowest value in the County of Veszprém. The number of patients per one general practitioner and per one pediatrician is 1,462. The educational attainment of Veszprém is as follows: 97.9% of the population under the age of 15 has completed 8 grades of primary school, 63.1% of the population under 18 has GCSE 87 and 28% of the population under 25 has a college/university degree. There were 20,655 employees in The dependency ratio in 2011 was 0.53 meaning that 53 inactive citizens (20 children and 33 elderly) were depending on 100 citizens of working age. Around 15,971 citizens received some form of social (retirement) benefit in % of the male population is active, 19.4% is inactive with regular income and 27.3% is dependent. Whereas 45% of the female population is active, 31% is inactive with regular income and 24% is dependent. Only 225 persons lives in 100 households meaning that on average 2.25 persons lives in one household which is the lowest rate in the County. 33% of the households are resided only by one person. There are 16,716 families in Veszprém living in 24,715 residences and the average number of persons making up a family is 2.8 (family size). 86 Hungarian Central Statistical Office (2013), Census of 2011, County of Veszprém, Budapest 87 General Certificate of Secondary Education 39

216 3. Institutional set-up 88 Being a county seat, Veszprém maintains a wide range of institutions with regional importance: Type of institution Number of institutions Nurseries 5 Kindergartens 15 Elementary schools 12 High schools 12 Institutions of higher education 2 County hospital 1 Healthcare institutions 31 Social institutions 20 Cultural institutions 19 Local Disaster Management Institution Table 1. Institutions in Veszprém The Veszprém County Disaster Management (DM) Directorate is part of a national system of disaster management 89. It is a regional authority with civil protection, industrial safety and fire service inspectorates. The organization with county scope operates three local DM branches (Ajka, Pápa and Veszprém) and six fire service headquarters (Ajka, Badacsonytomaj, Balatonfűzfő, Pápa, Pétfürdő and Veszprém). The Veszprém County DM Directorate covers administrative tasks, such as permitting, inspecting and monitoring installations and facilities from an industrial safety and fire protection point of view as well as managing disasters, undertaking interventions and protecting civilians in times of emergencies

217 Governance Most of the institutions in Veszprém are maintained by the city itself except the institutions of higher education and partly the schools. Parochial schools are maintained by the churches while the maintenance of regular schools has changed with the entry into force of the new Public Education Act 90 in 2013 whereby the wages of the teaching staff are financed by the state and the infrastructures are maintained by the local authorities. A large proportion of the institutions and utilities are governed by specialized departments of Mayor s Office, such as the administrative office, public welfare office or the urban management office. Being part of an authority with a nationwide scope the Veszprém County Disaster Management Directorate is governed by the Ministry of Interior s National Directorate General for Disaster Management Environmental legislation and development plans Most of the natural and environmental elements with urban importance are protected by local regulations 92. Air quality, soil protection, hydrological, sewage treatment, municipal solid waste management, noise pollution and air pollution issues are regulated by specific decrees and the protection activity is partly financed from the Environmental Protection Fund established in One of the most comprehensive and complex environmental long term strategy in Veszprém is the Energy Strategy which was adopted by the city council in The strategy s main objective is to reduce greenhouse gas (CO2, CH4, N2O, CFCs) emissions by 25% compared to the average level of , to increase the use of renewable energy by 20% and to reduce energy consumption by 25% by The climate change mitigation strategy identifies specific projects that will contribute the achievement of the goals. However no climate change adaptation measures or strategy have been passed and implemented so far in Veszprém. Development Plans CLXXXVIII. Act For example 35/2010 (VI. 28.) local regulation on air quality protection, or 30/2010 (VI. 28.) local regulation on managing municipal solid wastes 93 36/2010 (XI.12.) local regulation on Environmental Protection Fund 94 Energetikai Stratégia

218 One part of the plans are local implementation of EU and national development strategies 95 while the other part has been developed by Veszprém to define development objectives locally. Veszprém s Urban Development Plan which was adopted in 2000 and amended in 2002 and in 2013 sets up development objectives for the city. These are: 1. Improving urban environment 2. Knowledge based economy 3. Balanced society 4. Modern transportation development 5. Improving utilities 6. Environment, landscape and green areas Veszprém s Urban Structural Development Plan adopted in 2003 defines development objectives for the different types of city zones. 5. Main economic activities Veszprém is one of the largest trade, service, education and industrial hub of mid Transdanubia. The number of the functioning enterprises in 2010 was 10,572. The proportion of the main economic activities are the follows: services 47%; trade 15%; public sector 11%; construction sector 7%; agriculture 6%; tourism 6%; manufacturing 5% (see pie chart). 95 Europe 2020 Strategy Programme, National Development Programme 2020, National Regional Development Plan 42

219 Services Trade Public sector Construction sector Agriculture Tourism Manufacturing Diagram 1: Economic activities in Veszprém 96% of the companies are employing less than 9 persons so they count as small or micro sized enterprises, large sized companies employing more than 250 persons are contributing to Veszprém s employment with a 2% share. The most prominent company activities are related to environmental industry, IT and logistics. The number of stores and shops in 2010 was 1,400. Since Veszprém s old town is a touristic attraction the number of accomodations is relatviely high (1200 rooms) but the capacity usage was low (25%) in 2010 due mainly to the economic drop back. 6. Land-cover, land use The European CORINE Land Cover (CLC) provides a comparative land cover overview of specific areas. 89% of Veszprém s administrative area is unbuilt or with other words, undeveloped while 11% is built-in or urban zone. 43