Overeducation at the Start of the Career: Stepping Stone or Trap?

Transcription

1 D I S C U S S I O N P A P E R S E R I E S IZA DP N Ovrducain a h Sar f h Carr: Spping Sn r Trap? Sijn Bar Bar Cckx Dir Vrhas May 2012 Frschungsinsiu zur Zukunf dr Arbi Insiu fr h Sudy f Labr

2 Ovrducain a h Sar f h Carr: Spping Sn r Trap? Sijn Bar Ghn Univrsiy Bar Cckx Ghn Univrsiy, Univrsié cahliqu d Luvain, CESif and IZA Dir Vrhas Hgschl-Univrsii Brussl and Ghn Univrsiy Discussin Papr N May 2012 IZA P.O. Bx Bnn Grany Phn: Fax: E-ail: [email protected] Any pinins xprssd hr ar hs f h auhr(s) and n hs f IZA. Rsarch publishd in his sris ay includ viws n plicy, bu h insiu islf aks n insiuinal plicy psiins. Th Insiu fr h Sudy f Labr (IZA) in Bnn is a lcal and virual inrnainal rsarch cnr and a plac f cunicain bwn scinc, pliics and businss. IZA is an indpndn nnprfi rganizain supprd by Dusch Ps Fundain. Th cnr is assciad wih h Univrsiy f Bnn and ffrs a siulaing rsarch nvirnn hrugh is inrnainal nwrk, wrkshps and cnfrncs, daa srvic, prjc suppr, rsarch visis and dcral prgra. IZA ngags in (i) riginal and inrnainally cpiiv rsarch in all filds f labr cnics, (ii) dvlpn f plicy cncps, and (iii) dissinain f rsarch rsuls and cncps h inrsd public. IZA Discussin Paprs fn rprsn prliinary wrk and ar circulad ncurag discussin. Ciain f such a papr shuld accun fr is prvisinal characr. A rvisd vrsin ay b availabl dircly fr h auhr.

3 IZA Discussin Papr N May 2012 ABSTRACT Ovrducain a h Sar f h Carr: Spping Sn r Trap? * This sudy invsigas whhr yung unplyd graduas wh accp a jb blw hir lvl f ducain acclra r dlay h ransiin in a jb ha achs hir lvl f ducain. W adp h Tiing f Evns apprach idnify his dynaic ran ffc using nhly calndar daa fr a rprsnaiv sapl f Flish (Blgian) yuh wh sard sarching fr a jb righ afr laving fral ducain. W find ha vrducain is a rap. This rap is spcially ipran arly in h unplyn spll. Our rsuls ar rbus acrss varius spcificains and fr w vrducain asurs. JEL Classificain: C21, C41, I21, J24, J64 Kywrds: vrqualificain, undrplyn, schl--wrk ransiins, durain analysis, dynaic ran Crrspnding auhr: Bar Cckx Dparn f Ecnics Ghn Univrsiy Twkrknsraa 2 B-9000 Gn Blgiu E-ail: [email protected] * W hank Ji Alln, Krisf D Wi, Ma Duilla, Frddy Hyln, Francsc Pasr, Ma Picchi, Giuspp Rs, Pr Slan, Walr Van Trir and h sinar paricipans a Ghn Univrsiy, Univrsié cahliqu d Luvain, VU Univrsiy Asrda, h Eurpan Nwrk n Transiins in Yuh Wrkshp 2011, h Day f h Scinific Ecnic Rsarch f h Flish Sciy f Ecnics 2011, h Wrkshp n Ovrducain in Napls and h Spring Ming f Yung Ecniss 2012 fr hir insighful cns and suggsins, which hav hlpd iprv his sudy cnsidrably. In addiin, w ar graful h Sunpun SSL f h Flish gvrnn fr h usd SONAR daa. Th auhrs assu h sl scinific rspnsibiliy f h prsn wrk.

4 1. Inrducin Nurus sudis hav shwn ha any yung wrkrs ar vrducad a h sar f hir carrs (s,.g., Bau al., 1999; Dln and Vignls, 2000). A wrkr is cnsidrd b vrducad if hr/his ducain is highr han h lvl ha is ypically rquird prfr adqualy. This phnnn suggss a lss-han-pial allcain f graduas vr jbs and is pnially csly fr sciy (Gr and Maassn van dn Brink, 2000; McGuinnss, 2006). Fr vrducad wrkrs, his ranslas in lwr arnings (Harg, 2000) and lwr jb saisfacin (s,.g., Tsang, 1987; Alln and van dr Vldn, 2001). Thrfr, n igh wndr why yung jb skrs acually accp jbs wih rquirns blw hir ducainal aainn. On pnial answr is ha his is h shrs pahway a jb ha achs h aaind ducainal lvl. This spping sn hyphsis has bn frulad s clarly by Sichran and Galr (1990). Accrding hir carr biliy hry, vrducain is an invsn in wrk xprinc which nhancs prin ppruniis highr lvl psiins insid r usid h fir. In addiin, by aking hs psiins, wrkrs avid unplyn scarring (s,.g., Arulapala, 2001), rsuling fr ngaiv signalling, skill dprciain r psychlgical discuragn. Hwvr, vrducain igh jus as wll rard h ransiin an adqua jb. Jb spcific huan capial invsns ay lck wrkrs in bad psiins (Pissarids, 1994). Furhr, h surcs undrlying unplyn scarring ay qually apply vrducain. Accrding McCrick (1990), vrducain vn acs as a srngr ngaiv signal plyrs han unplyn and d Grip al. (2008) shw ha vrducain als rsuls in cgniiv dclin. Mrvr, Vrhas and Oy (2009) find ha h ngaiv assciain bwn vrducain and jb saisfacin dclins vr i, suggsing s habiuain. Finally, whil jb sarch dls shw ha i ay b pial accp a lwr psiin and pursu n-h-jb sarch (Dlad al., 2009), i is dubful whhr h sa sarch innsiy can b ainaind. Svral pirical sudis hav alrady prvidd inrsing insighs in his dba by invsigaing h biliy bhaviur f vrducad wrkrs. Sichran (1991) and Rbs (1995), fr insanc, find fr h US ha vrducad wrkrs ar r likly v ccupains wih highr huan capial rquirns han adqualy ducad wrkrs wih siilar ducainal backgrunds. This is cnsisn wih h carr biliy hsis. In addiin, Rubb (2003) rprs a yarly ransiin ra fr vrducain adqua plyn f abu 20%, suggsing ha vrducain is a prary prbl fr s US wrkrs. Hwvr, a nubr f sudis fr hr cunris challng his cnclusin. Bau al. (1999) find ha h ach bwn h ducainal dgr 2 Ov rd u c a i n a h s ar f h c a r r - s p p ing s n r r a p?

5 and h jb rquirns rains fairly sabl arund 60% 1, 6 and 11 yars afr graduain fr w chrs wh graduad fr highr ducain in h UK. Dln and Vignls (2000) arriv a siilar cnclusins. Baur (2002) finds, using h Gran GSOEP daa fr , ha rlaivly fw plys chang hir isach saus. This is cnfird by Büchl and Mrns (2004) wh rpr ha vrducain rsuls in lss upward ccupainal biliy and lss wag grwh in h Gran labur ark. This is spcially fr yung wrkrs wih lw-qualiy ducain (Pllann- Schul and Büchl, 2004). Mr rcnly, Vrhas and van dr Vldn (In prss) sudid h prsisnc f vrducain in 14 cunris. Thy find subsanial hrgniy in his prsisnc bh acrss cunris and wihin cunris accrding h qualiy and rinain f hir huan capial. Finally, Mavraras and McGuinnss (In prss) sia a dynaic rand ffcs prbi dl allwing fr crrlad unbsrvd hrgniy n Ausralian daa. Thy find subsanial sa dpndnc in vrskilling 1 fr wrkrs wih a high ducainal dgr, bu nn fr wrkrs wih vcainal ducain. Basd n a siilar dl and cnsisn wih h afrnind findings, Mavraras al. (2010) rpr ha nihr vrducain nr vrskilling has any significan ffc n jb biliy f fal univrsiy graduas in Ausralia. By cnras, vrducain, spcially in cbinain wih vrskilling, psiivly affcs (vlunary) quis, bu n (invlunary) layffs f al graduas. Whhr his lads r upward ccupainal biliy rains an pn qusin, hwvr. Fr his vrviw f h liraur w cnclud ha vidnc fr h carr biliy hry is ixd. Mrvr, s rsarchs jus sudy h prsisnc f vrducain. Hwvr, vn if vrducain is prsisn, his ds n rjc h hyphsis ha vrducain is a spping sn an adqua jb. Afr all, an individual wh ds n accp a jb fr which (s)h is vrducad ay rain unplyd (and hrfr wihu adqua jb) vn lngr han whn (s)h accps such a jb. This aricl sudis h spping sn hyphsis. In hr wrds, w invsiga which sragy unplyd graduas shuld fllw if hy ai a spding up h ransiin a jb ha achs hir ducainal qualificains. Shuld hy, avid ging rappd in vrducain, (i) nly accp adqua jbs ha ach hir ducainal qualificains? Or, d hy hav an inrs in (ii) accping jbs fr which hy ar vrducad, bcaus hs jbs ar springbards ha spd up h ransiin an adqua jb? Our analysis als innvas in h vrducain liraur fr a hdlgical pin f viw. As pind u by Luvn and Osrbk (2011), any sudis n vrducain and is cnsquncs 1 Ovrskilling is a siuain whrby an individual has r skills and knwldg han hs uilizd in h jb (cf. Alln and van dr Vldn, 2001; Grn and McInsh, 2007). 3 Ov rd u c a i n a h s ar f h c a r r - s p p ing s n r r a p?

6 fail accun fr pssibl nn-rand slcin in vrducain. 2 Fr insanc, vrducad wrkrs ay b lss abl han adqualy ducad wrkrs. If s, h cparisn f h ucs bwn adqualy qualifid and vrducad wrkrs ay parly rflc his abiliy diffrnc and is hrfr n causal. T slv his slcin prbl, w apply h Tiing f Evns apprach as dvlpd by Abbring and van dn Brg (2003). T idnify h slcin fr h ran ffc, his hd xplis ha unbsrvd i-cnsan individual drinans f h ransiin an adqua jb affc his ransiin hrughu h prid ha n is sarching fr an adqua jb whras h ran (ransiin in vrducain) ay nly influnc his ransiin as fr h n a which h ran ccurs. Th slcin ffc can hrfr b idnifid fr h pr-ran daa if h ran is n anicipad and h iing f h ran is rand, vn wihu any xclusin rsricins. Th analysis is basd n a rrspciv survy f a rprsnaiv sapl f w birh chrs, brn in 1978 and 1980 and living in Flandrs, h Duch-spaking rgin in h Nrh f Blgiu. Fr his sapl w rain al unplyd yuh wh sard sarching fr a jb righ afr graduaing fr fral ducain. An advanag f analysing daa righ afr graduain is ha hr is a clsr cnncin bwn h cncp f vrducain and vrskilling, sinc individuals hav n y acquird any skills hrugh xprinc n-h-jb. Mrvr, h unusual richnss f h daabas susains h crdibiliy f ur findings. On h n hand, i cnains daild infrain n h iing f labur ark ransiins: saring das f jb sarch, ransiins fr unplyn plyn and vn jb--jb and psiin changs wihin a sa fir. This is crucial fr h applicain f h Tiing f Evns hd and als capur carr biliy vn if i ccurs wihin h fir, nsuring ha ur sudy cann b criicizd n h grunds f undrsiaing carr biliy. On h hr hand, bh ducainal aainn and h jb rquirns ar prcisly rgisrd, which allws cnsrucing w asurs f vrducain, n basd n a jb analysis apprach and anhr n a difid slf-assssn hd. Sinc h ducainal rquirn accrding h lar hd is narly univrsally highr han h lar, h liklihd ha h difid slf-assssn hd idnifis apparn vrschling is rducd. This ars, sinc Chvalir (2003) argus ha gnuinly vrschld wrkrs ar r likly v a highr lvl jb han hs wh ar apparnly vrschld. Cnsqunly, sinc ur findings ar n snsiiv h chic f hs asurs, w ar qui cnfidn ha hy ar n drivn by incrrc asurn f h ducainal rquirns. 2 Th afrnind aricls f Mavraras and McGuinnss (In prss) and Mavraras al. (2010) ar rar xcpins wih rspc h liraur n h jb biliy f vrducad wrkrs. 4 Ov rd u c a i n a h s ar f h c a r r - s p p ing s n r r a p?

7 Th aricl is rganizd as fllws. In h nx scin w dscrib h daas in furhr dail and prvid s slcd dscripiv saisics. Scin 3 discusss h cnric frawrk. Scin 4 cnains and discusss h siain rsuls. Scin 5 cncluds. 2. Daa and dscripiv saisics 2.1 Th sapl f analysis Our analysis is basd n daa fr a rprsnaiv sapl f w chrs (birh yars 1978 and 1980) f h SONAR survy cnducd whn rspndns wr 23 yars ld. Each chr cnains abu 3000 individuals. Ths daa ar supplnd wih daa fr w fllw-up survys, cpld a ag 26 fr h 1978 chr (rspns ra f 69%) and a ag 29 fr h 1980 chr (rspns ra f 64%). Daild infrain rgarding h sapling prcdurs and gnral suary saisics can b fund in SONAR (2003) and SONAR (2005). Th SONAR daa cnain daild infrain rgarding schl and labur ark carrs, which ak h vry suiabl fr ur analysis. Th lvl f acquird ducainal aainn is asurd a h n ha h yungsr rprs hav lf fral ducain fr h firs i. Th labur ark hisry is rgisrd n a nhly basis. Each nh is assignd ihr a wrking r a nn-wrking saus, dpnding n h saus in which n spnds s f h i. Furhr, if plyd, bh jb--jb ransiins and psiin changs wihin a jb ar rcrdd. Par-i jbs hld during vcainal ducain, sudn and vacain jbs ar dfind b par f h ducainal carr. Th analysis args wrkrs wh ar unplyd righ afr graduain. W hrfr slc individuals fr h firs n ha hy rpr hav sard sarching fr a jb sinc graduain. 3 Furhrr, w nly cnsidr n bcaus hir labur ark dcisins ar lss affcd by friliy cnsidrains. Finally, w xclud n wh did n aain a dgr f lwr scndary ducain, bcaus blw his lvl f ducain n n is vrducad by dfiniin. 3 W d n rain individuals wh sard sarching fr jbs during hir sudis, sinc fr hs individuals w cann idnify h n a which hy fund a jb (if his ccurs bfr graduain). Wihu infrain n his n h Tiing f Evns apprach cann b iplnd. 5 Ov rd u c a i n a h s ar f h c a r r - s p p ing s n r r a p?

8 Afr liinaing 114 bsrvains fr which xplanary variabls ar issing, h final daas cnains 1434 individuals. 2.2 Masurs f vrducain In h ain analysis w dfin vrducain accrding a jb analysis apprach. Each psiin in h SONAR daa has bn cdd fllwing h Sandard Occupain Classificain f Saisics Nhrlands (CBS, 2001). This classificain grups jbs accrding a s f asks b xcud and assigns ach ccupain an ducainal lvl ha is h s apprpria. Th fllwing fiv funcinal lvls ar cnsidrd: lss han lwr scndary, lwr scndary, highr scndary, lwr riary and highr riary ducain. Hnc, an individual is cnsidrd b vrducad if h funcinal lvl f hr/his jb xcds hr/his aaind ducainal lvl. Ths wih a funcinal lvl abv hir ducainal lvl, h s-calld undrducad, ar cnsidrd b adqualy ducad in his aricl. Cnsidring his - sall - grup as a spara cagry wuld furhr cplica h analysis. Mrvr, undrducad individuals gnrally arn a las as uch and ar a las as saisfid wih hir jbs as adqualy ducad wrkrs (Harg, 2000; Vrhas and Oy, 2009). Hnc, his jusifis pling h wih h adqualy ducad. Apar fr jb analysis, svral hr asurn apprachs, fr insanc basd n slfassssns, hav bn applid in h liraur (s Luvn and Osrbk, 2011, fr an vrviw). As any hd, jb analysis has s disadvanags. On fn frulad criicis is ha, wihin a paricular ccupain, hr ay b subsanial hrgniy in h asks b xcud. Hwvr, sinc h SBC-classificain is rahr buil upn asks b xcud han n ccupainal ils, his prbl shuld b lss svr fr ur asur. Furhrr, in a nubr f validain sudis (van dr Mr, 2006; Vrhas and Oy, 2010), h CBS asur prfrd a las qually wll as hr asurs. Nvrhlss, w als xcu a snsiiviy analysis rlying n a difid slf-assssn apprach. Th SONAR survy includd h fllwing survy qusin rgarding h firs jb: Wha is (was), accrding yur wn pinin, h s apprpria ducainal lvl xcu yur jb? As his qusin was n includd fr subsqun jbs, w adpd h fllwing cnsrucin prcdur fr ur alrnaiv asur. Firs, rlying n his infrain n firs jbs, w cpud h dian subjcivly assssd rquird lvl wihin ach 6 Ov rd u c a i n a h s ar f h c a r r - s p p ing s n r r a p?

9 ccupain. 4 Scnd, w assssd bh fr h firs jb and fr lar jbs whhr sn was vrducad r n by cparing hr/his ducainal lvl wih his cpud dian f h subjcivly rquird lvl. Accrding h jb analysis hd wihin h raind sapl 59% f h firs jbs wr filld by vrducad wrkrs, whras nly 34% accrding h difid slf-assssn hd. 5 Ths divrgn figurs ar cnsisn wih hs f hr sudis ha asur vrducain n h basis f bh jb analysis and slf-assssn apprachs. This ay b xplaind by scial dsirabiliy bias (Harg, 2000), rsuling in an vrsiain f jb rquirns in h slf-assssn apprach. Hwvr, alrnaivly, ccupainal classificains ay b rlaivly inflxibl upgrads in ducainal rquirns. In his lar inrprain h difid slf-assssn hd discards apparn vrducain idnifid as vrducain by h jb analysis hd. As alrady nind, sinc carr biliy is lss likly fr h apparnly vrducad (Chvalir, 2003), r carr biliy ay b xpcd whn basing h analysis n h slf-assssn hd. 2.3 Dscripiv analysis Basd n h afrnind infrain, w drin fr ach sapld individual h iing a which (s)h nrd an adqua jb r a jb fr which (s)h was vrducad sinc (s)h sard sarching fr a jb. 788 yung n (55% f h raind sapl) find an adqua jb (as asurd by jb analysis) bfr h nd f h bsrvain prid. 546 (38%) f hs n dircly nrd an adqua jb (subsapl E, h cnrl grup), whil 242 (17%) wr prarily vrducad bfr nring h adqua jb (subsapl OE, h ran grup). 549 yung n (38%) nr a jb fr which hy ar vrducad and d n subsqunly ransi an adqua jb bfr hy ar righ cnsrd (subsapl OC ). 97 (7%) individuals wr righ cnsrd bfr aking any ransiin (subsapl C ). Th righ-cnsring fr 646 (= ) f h bsrvains ccurs fr n f h fllwing rasns: (i) nd f h bsrvain prid and sapl ariin (69% f h 646 righ cnsrd bsrvains); (ii) 4 Th nubr f slf-assssns is rlaivly lw fr s ccupains a r daild lvls. Thrfr, w bas h cpuain n h s daild ccupainal lvl fr which w hav a las 20 bsrvains availabl in ur daa. Fr a siilar prcdur and discussin in h cas f ralizd achs asurs, s Vrhas and Oy (2010). 5 This incidnc using h difid slf-assssn asur is vry siilar h incidnc using h sandard subjciv asur. Furhr, rlying n his alrnaiv prcdur, w als invsigad h ipac f vrducain n arnings and jb saisfacin. Als hs ucs wr siilar hs n h basis f hr asurs. 7 Ov rd u c a i n a h s ar f h c a r r - s p p ing s n r r a p?

10 Survival ransiin a jb fr which h funcinal lvl is n rgisrd (15%); (iii) rurn full i ducain (7%); (iv) ransiin slf-plyn (7%) and (v) ransiin disabiliy (2%). Figur 1 rprs nn-pararic Kaplan-Mir sias f h nhly ransiin in a firs jb (irrspcivly f whhr n is vrducad fr i r n) and in a firs adqua jb (dircly r indircly, afr a prary spll f vrducain). Ovrducain is asurd accrding h jb analysis hd. Th crrspnding figur if vrducain is asurd by h slf-assssn hd is rprd in Appndix D. Th dian durain unil h ransiin a firs jb is 1 nh and 29 nhs unil a firs ransiin an adqua jb. This illusras clarly ha s yung graduas vry rapidly find a jb a h sar f hir carr, bu als ha hs graduas ar vrducad fr s f hs jbs, sinc hy nr an adqua jb a a uch slwr ra. Figur 1: Kaplan-Mir sias: survival in unplyn unil nry in a firs jb (jb analysis hd) 1 firs adqua jb firs jb Durain unil plyn sinc h sar f jb sarch (nhs) Figur 2 rprs h nn-pararic Kaplan-Mir sias f h nubr f nhs ha laps afr accping a jb fr which n is vrducad unil nry in an adqua jb. Th dian durain is as high as 110 nhs. Sinc h dian durain sinc h sar f jb sarch unil (dirc r indirc) nry in an adqua jb is nly 29 nhs, his ans ha s dirc ransiins in an adqua jb ccur uch r rapidly han h indirc ransiins. Hwvr, sinc his cparisn ds n ak slcin n (un)bsrvabl characrisics in accun, w cann cnclud fr his dscripiv vidnc, ha accping a jb fr which n is vrducad is a rap 8 Ov rd u c a i n a h s ar f h c a r r - s p p ing s n r r a p?

11 Survival rahr han a spping sn an adqua jb. Ovrducad individuals igh hav vry lw chancs nr adqua jbs anyway, s ha fr hs individuals i igh hav akn vn lngr bfr hy wuld hav fund an adqua jb if hy wuld hav rjcd all jbs fr which hy wr vrducad. Th Tiing f Evns hd ha w apply in his rsarch aks h slcin n (un)bsrvabl characrisics in accun and lads hrfr a br fundd answr ur rsarch qusin. Figur 2: Kaplan-Mir sias: survival unil nry in adqua jb (jb analysis hd) Durain unil adqua plyn sinc h sar f vrducad plyn (nhs) Our analysis cnrls fr a rich s f bsrvd characrisics. A vcr f i-cnsan variabls asurd bfr h sar f h jb sarch spll capurs h rspndns (i) lvl f ducainal aainn (highs aaind lvl f ducain, nubr f uncrifid yars f schling bynd h highs lvl and an indicar f whhr n baind an addiinal dgr a h sa lvl f ducain), (ii) schl achivn (yars f schling dlay a h ag f 16 and h grad baind in riary ducain 6 ), (iii) schl rinain in scndary schl (gnral, chnical, vcainal r ars), (iv) scial backgrund (hr s and fahr s lvl f ducain and igran saus as capurd by h nainaliy f h grandhr a hr s sid), (v) birh chr (1978 r 1980), (vi) wrk xprinc during schl (inrnship r sudn jb) and (vii) iing f h sar f jb sarch 6 This infrain is n availabl a h lvl f scndary ducain. 9 Ov rd u c a i n a h s ar f h c a r r - s p p ing s n r r a p?

12 (quarr in h yar and nubr f nhs sinc laving schl). In addiin, h nhly Blgian yuh unplyn ra (ILO dfiniin) is includd as a i varying variabl as capur sasnal and businss cycl variain. Dails cncrning s f hs variabls ar ulind in Appndix A. Tabl 1: Suary saisics Sapl: Tal C E OC OE (cnrls) (rad) (Nubr f individuals): (1434) (97) (546) (549) (242) Highs lvl f ducainal aainn Highs aaind lvl f ducain Lwr scndary ducain 0.24 (0.43) 0.14 (0.35) 0.27 (0.44) 0.24 (0.43) 0.21 (0.41) Scndary ducain 0.43 (0.50) 0.30 (0.46) 0.44 (0.50) 0.41 (0.49) 0.52 (0.50) Lwr riary ducain 0.17 (0.38) 0.22 (0.41) 0.19 (0.39) 0.14 (0.35) 0.17 (0.38) Highr riary ducain 0.16 (0.37) 0.34 (0.48) 0.10 (0.31) 0.21 (0.41) 0.10 (0.30) Addiinal succssful yars f ducain afr highs aaind lvl f ducain 0.40 (0.73) 0.32 (0.65) 0.37 (0.67) 0.48 (0.81) 0.36 (0.69) Addiinal dgr a highs aaind lvl f ducain 0.06 (0.23) 0.11 (0.32) 0.04 (0.19) 0.07 (0.25) 0.05 (0.23) Schling achivn Triary ducain: grad N grad 0.85 (0.36) 0.77 (0.42) 0.85 (0.36) 0.86 (0.35) 0.87 (0.34) Wih hnurs (cu laud) 0.13 (0.34) 0.21 (0.41) 0.13 (0.34) 0.12 (0.33) 0.12 (0.32) Wih gra/highs hnurs (cu agna/axia laud) 0.02 (0.14) 0.02 (0.14) 0.02 (0.14) 0.02 (0.14) 0.02 (0.14) Yars f schling dlay (a ag f 16) 0.43 (0.60) 0.40 (0.64) 0.47 (0.65) 0.42 (0.57) 0.38 (0.54) Schl rinain a ag f 16 in scndary schl Gnral scndary ducain 0.35 (0.48) 0.57 (0.50) 0.33 (0.47) 0.35 (0.48) 0.30 (0.46) Tchnical scndary ducain 0.37 (0.48) 0.27 (0.45) 0.40 (0.49) 0.34 (0.47) 0.43 (0.50) Ars scndary ducain 0.01 (0.11) 0.02 (0.14) 0.01 (0.10) 0.01 (0.10) 0.02 (0.13) Vcainal scndary ducain 0.27 (0.44) 0.14 (0.35) 0.26 (0.44) 0.30 (0.46) 0.25 (0.43) Scial backgrund Mhr s ducainal lvl 5.33 (3.25) 5.86 (3.40) 5.47 (3.16) 5.13 (3.32) 5.24 (3.20) Fahr s ducainal lvl 5.72 (3.41) 6.47 (3.60) 5.86 (3.25) 5.57 (3.50) 5.47 (3.42) Grandhr (hr s sid) frign 0.06 (0.24) 0.13 (0.34) 0.07 (0.25) 0.04 (0.20) 0.06 (0.24) Birh chr (birh yar) (0.50) 0.42 (0.50) 0.49 (0.50) 0.50 (0.50) 0.41 (0.49) (0.50) 0.58 (0.50) 0.51 (0.50) 0.50 (0.50) 0.59 (0.49) 10 Ovr d u ca i n a h s a r f h c a r r - s p p ing s n r r a p?

13 Wrk xprinc during ducain Any inrnship during ducain 0.59 (0.49) 0.51 (0.50) 0.55 (0.50) 0.63 (0.48) 0.61 (0.49) Any sudn jb during ducain 0.81 (0.40) 0.72 (0.45) 0.81 (0.39) 0.79 (0.41) 0.86 (0.34) Tiing f h sar f jb sarch Sar f jb sarch: quarr in h yar Firs quarr 0.09 (0.28) 0.13 (0.34) 0.10 (0.30) 0.07 (0.25) 0.10 (0.29) Scnd quarr 0.17 (0.37) 0.10 (0.31) 0.18 (0.39) 0.16 (0.36) 0.17 (0.37) Third quarr 0.66 (0.47) 0.70 (0.46) 0.63 (0.48) 0.67 (0.47) 0.68 (0.47) Furh quarr 0.09 (0.28) 0.06 (0.24) 0.09 (0.28) 0.10 (0.31) 0.06 (0.24) Mnhs bwn laving schl and saring jb sarch 2.04 (4.03) 2.61 (4.68) 2.12 (4.76) 2.03 (3.57) 1.67 (2.68) Sasnal and businss variain Yuh unplyn ra a sar da f jb sarch (2.69) (3.12) (2.75) (2.54) (2.59) Rprd figurs ar ans and sandard dviains in parnhss. Subsapl C cnains n wh ar righ cnsrd bfr aking any ransiin during h bsrvain prid; subsapl E cnains n wh dircly ransi an adqua jb; subsapl OC cnains n wh nr a jb fr which hy ar vrducad and wh ar subsqunly righ cnsrd bfr aking any ransiin an adqua jb; subsapl OE cnains n wh ar prarily vrducad bfr nring an adqua jb. Dails rgarding s f h xplanary variabls ar ulind in Appndix A. In Tabl 1 w rpr dscripiv saisics fr hs xplanary variabls usd in h cnric analysis blw. W sparaly rpr saisics n h fur subsapls idnifid in h bginning f his Subscin: E, OE, OC and C. Subsapl C is rlaivly sall and cnains h s ducad graduas, sinc, as his grup sudis lngr, h bsrvain prid is sysaically shrr fr his grup. On h hr hand, i cpriss r frign yuh, which squars wih h wll dcund ngaiv crrlain bwn frign hniciy and labur ark succss. Thr ar als fwr individuals in his subsapl wih any inrnship r sudn wrk xprinc during hir ducainal carrs. Thr is n clar parn in h diffrncs bsrvd bwn h hr hr subsapls xcp ha in subsapl E (h cnrls ), which is rsricd yuh wih a dirc ransiin adqua plyn, h parn s lvl f ducain and h nubr f yars f schling dlay a h ag f 16 is n avrag highr, and h yuh unplyn ra is lwr han in h w hr subsapls (OC and OE, h rad ), cnaining yuh wh ar (firs) vrducad. I is a priri unclar in which dircin his culd hav biasd h afrnind dscripiv vidnc n ur rsarch qusin. 11 Ovr d u ca i n a h s a r f h c a r r - s p p ing s n r r a p?

14 3. Ecnric dl 3.1 Th slcin prbl W ai a idnifying whhr an unplyd gradua can acclra h ransiin an adqua jb by prarily accping a jb fr which (s)h is vrducad ( h ran ) rahr han nly accping adqua jbs, r whhr insad (s)h igh g rappd in vrducain by fllwing such a sragy. T answr his qusin, w fac a dubl slcin prbl. Firs, yung n wh ar r likly accp a jb fr which hy ar vrducad ay hav a sysaically lwr (r highr) liklihd f finding an adqua jb han hs wh ar lss likly b vrducad. If w ignr his classic slcin prbl, hn a sipl cparisn f h spd f ransiin an adqua jb bwn hs wh dircly nr an adqua and hs wh d s nly afr an inrdia prid f plyn as vrducad wrkr, will undrsia (vrsia) h ran ffc n his spd. Scnd, vn if hr is n sysaic rlainship bwn h unbsrvd drinans f ran and nry in an adqua jb, hn w ar sill cnfrnd wih a dynaic slcin prbl. Sinc h ran ds n ccur a h sar f h unplyn spll, ran can nly ccur fr yuh wh did n find an adqua jb bfrhand. Cnsqunly, h ran ffc is asurd fr a ppulain ha has lss chancs f finding an adqua jb han if i was asurd a h sar f h unplyn spll. This biass h ran ffc wards zr bcaus h ran ffc is cnfundd wih h unbsrvd lwr chancs f finding adqua plyn in his ppulain (s.g. Lancasr, 1990, p. 65). Th Tiing f Evns hd prpsd by Abbring and van dn Brg (2003) aks his dubl slcin prbl in accun and idnifis hrfr h ru causal ipac f a ransiin vrducain n h spd f ransiin an adqua jb. W firs wri dwn h cnric dl and hn discuss why w bliv ha h ain idnifying assupins f h Tiing f Evns hd ar saisfid. 3.2 Th cnric dl In h fllwing, h indx indicas vrducain and h indx rfrs adqua plyn. Th ransiins f inrs in vrducain and adqua plyn ar rprsnd by w rand lan durains: T and T, wih and dning hir ralizains. W assu ha all individual diffrncs in h jin disribuin f bh durains can b characrizd 12 Ovr d u ca i n a h s a r f h c a r r - s p p ing s n r r a p?

15 by xplanary variabls X and V. X dns h bsrvd variabls as dscribd in Scin 2.3 wih ralizain x. 7 V, n h hr hand, is unbsrvabl h rsarchr and ransiin-spcific. Mr cncrly, V is a vcr (V,V ) wih ralizain (ν,ν ). X and V ar assud b indpndnly disribud (s Scin 3.3 fr furhr discussin). Abbring and van dn Brg (2003) assu ha T and T ar indpndn cndiinally n X and V, s ha h jin disribuin f (T,T ) (X,V) can b wrin as h prduc f h disribuins f T (X,V ) and T (X,V ) which ar in urn cplly drind by hir hazard ras,x, V and x, V, whr is h lapsd jb sarch durain. Ths hazard ras ar hn spcifid accrding h fllwing Mixd Prprinal Hazard (MPH) fr: ln ln x,v ln x'β V,x,V ln x'β,x1 V, (3-1) whr 1(.) is an indicar funcin, which is 1 if h argun is ru and 0 hrwis, and δ(,x) is h ran ffc f vrducain n h spd f ransiin an adqua jb. Obsrv ha i can b any funcin f, 0 and x, bu cann dpnd n any unbsrvd facr. Firs, in a bnchark spcificain, w assu ha h ran ffc is cnsan: Cnsan ran ffc dl,x. (3-2) Clarly, vrducain is a spping sn (rap) if and nly if his cnsan is significanly psiiv (ngaiv): h ransiin an adqua jb incrass (dcrass) prprinally wih his ran ffc. In h bnchark dl w allw fr an xnsin in which h ran ffc dpnds n bh h durain sinc nry in vrducain (- 0 ) and n h lapsd unplyn durain unil nry in vrducad plyn 0. Th firs facr (- 0 ) ais a capuring a gradually dcrasing lcking-in ffc and/r sadily grwing invsn ffc. Lcking-in ay rflc invsn in spcific huan capial (Pissarids, 1994), cgniiv dclin (Grip al., 2008), habiuain (Vrhas and Oy, 2009) r rducd jb-sarch ffr n-h-jb. Th invsn ffc rflcs h gradually incrasing prin ppruniis wih wrk xprinc, as dscribd in h carr biliy hry (Sichran and Galr, 1990). Th dpndnc n h lapsd unplyn 7 T avid cubrs nain, w ignr h prsnc f h yuh unplyn ra as a i-varying cvaria. 13 Ovr d u ca i n a h s a r f h c a r r - s p p ing s n r r a p?

16 durain, n h hr hand, ais a sing whhr lng-r unplyd bnfi r fr a spping sn ffc (if any) han shr-r unplyd, sinc accping any jb igh rduc h scarring ffcs f lng-r unplyn. W includ quadraic rs allw fr nnlinariy f hs ffcs vr i. Exndd dl 2 2 ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) (3-3) In Scin 4.2, in which w rpr a nubr f snsiiviy analyss, w discuss s furhr xnsins in which h ran ffc dpnds n s hr xplanary variabls. λ () and λ () rprsn h baslin hazard funcins fr ransiins in vrducain and adqua plyn. Th hazard ra is said b durain dpndn if hs funcins ar ivarian. Psiiv (ngaiv) durain dpndnc in h ransiin in vrducain, rspcivly adqua plyn, ans ha λ (), rspcivly λ (), ar incrasing (dcrasing) in. W fllw h liraur by spcifying hs baslin hazards as picwis cnsan: ln ln fr,, (3-4) 1 whr is an indicar f h i inrval and whr in h applicain 8 and 0 = 0, 1 = 1, 2 = 2, 3 = 3, 4 = 4, 5 = 6, 6 = 9, 7 = 18 and 8 = +. W sia h cnsan ran and xndd dl by Maxiu Liklihd. W disinguish bwn fur yps f liklihd cnribuins, cndiinal n h unbsrvd hrgniy disribuin, dpnding n h labur ark hisry f h yuh dscribd in Scin 2.3; l c (V), l (V), l c (V) and l (V). In Appndix B w driv hs cndiinal cnribuins aking h i-grupd naur f h daa in accun. T bain h uncndiinal liklihd cnribuins, w ingra h fur cndiinal cnribuins vr h unbsrvd hrgniy disribuin. W fllw Hckan and Singr (1984) and assu ha (ν,ν ) is randly drawn fr a discr disribuin wih a fini and a priri unknwn nubr K f pins f suppr. Sinc w includ a cnsan r in X, ν 1 and ν 1 ar nralizd 0. Th prbabiliis assciad hs pins f suppr ar spcifid as lgisic ransfrs: p k xp( k ), wih k = 1, 2,, K and γ K 1 = 0. xp( ) j1 j (3-5) 14 Ovr d u ca i n a h s a r f h c a r r - s p p ing s n r r a p?

17 Hnc, h liklihd cnribuin fr individual i in subsapl n Є {c,, c, } uncndiinal n unbsrvd hrgniy is: K lni pk ln k, k, wih n Є {c,, c, }. (3-6) k1 W can hn wri h uncndiinal lg-liklihd as h su f h uncndiinal individual lgliklihd cnribuins: N J lnl J lnl J lnl L J ln l, (3-7) i1 ci ci i i ci ci i i whr J ni quals 1 if l ni is h cnribuin f individual i h liklihd and J ni quals 0 hrwis. W axiiz his lg-liklihd accrding h prcdur dscribd in Gaur al. (2007). In paricular, w incras h nubr f pins f suppr unil h liklihd funcin ds n shw any iprvn and subsqunly slc h dl ha iniizs h Akaik Infrain Cririn (AIC) rduc h risk f bias inducd by an vr-pararizd dl. 3.3 Idnificain Unlik s hr hds ha ai a rslving h slcin prbl, h Tiing f Evns hd ds n rquir any xclusin rsricins. All bsrvd drinans ay affc bh h ransiin vrducain (h ran) and h ransiin an adqua jb (h uc f inrs). Hwvr, h hd rquirs anhr s f idnifying assupins (Abbring and van dn Brg, 2003) f which w discuss h crdibiliy nw. 1. Th hd assus ha vns d n raliz insananusly, sinc i xplis h iing f vns idnify h ru causal ffc. In h raind sapl individuals gradually nr vrducain r adqua plyn vr i, s ha his firs cndiin is saisfid. 2. Evn if h afrnind vns raliz gradually vr h curs f h jb sarch prid, h hd rquirs ha h iing f hs vns is knwn wih sufficin prcisin. Th daa rcrd ransiins wih a nhly prcisin. This i gruping is n prblaic h xn ha i is unlikly ha w ransiins ak plac wihin h sa nh (s Cckx al., In prss, fr a discussin). In ur daa a s n ransiin can ak plac wihin a givn nh by dfiniin: ach nh is assignd ihr a wrking r nn-wrking saus, dpnding n h saus in which n spnds s f h i (s Scin 2.1). This ds n an ha in raliy 15 Ovr d u ca i n a h s a r f h c a r r - s p p ing s n r r a p?

18 n r han n ransiin ay ccur wihin a nh (.g. shr-r plyn hrugh prary wrk agncis). Hwvr, hy ar rgardd unipran fr h jb ransiin prcss w sudy. Evn if h i gruping f h daa is n prblaic, Mn Carl analysis f Gaur al. (2007) has shwn ha ha i is ipran ak, as w d (s Appndix B), his i gruping xplicily in accun. Hwvr, if n fllws his advic h afrnind Mn Carl analysis has shwn ha Abbring and van dn Brg (2003) s hd is xrly rliabl. 3. Th n a which plyn is nrd ay n b anicipad. Sinc nihr h plyr nr h jb sarchr has in gnral an inrs pspn hiring nc h hiring dcisin is akn, w bliv ha h i lag bwn h n a which h jb was fund and h n a which h jb is nrd, is rlaivly shr, s ha h n-anicipain assupin is apprxialy saisfid. 4. Obsrvd and unbsrvd drinans affc h ransiin ras vrducain and adqua plyn f h unrad individuals prprinally. 8 This is h s calld Mixd Prprinal Hazard (MPH) assupin. Th afrnind Mn Carl analysis f Gaur al. (2007) has shwn ha his assupin is crucial, a las if nly i cnsan xplanary variabls ar availabl. 9 W ar paricularly cncrnd ha h MPH assupin is n saisfid acrss lvls f ducainal aainn and ha his hrfr ay b a surc f bias. Th rasn fr his cncrn is ha h highs ducad individuals hav r ppruniis b vrducad, siply bcaus accping any jb wih rquirns blw h highs lvl f ducainal aainn lads vrducain. By cnras, individuals wih a lwr scndary dgr ar nly vrducad if hy accp a jb ha ds n rquir any ducainal aainn. W hrfr prfr a snsiiviy analysis in which w sia h ran ffcs sparaly fr ach lvl f ducainal aainn, rlaxing hrby h prprinaliy assupin in his dinsin. 5. Thr shuld b a las w cninuus xplanary variabls ha ar n linarly dpndn. This cndiin is n sricly saisfid, sinc variabls such as parn s ducain, nubr f yars f schling dlay, addiinal yars f ducain bynd h highs dgr, h lapsd nubr f nhs bwn schl-laving and h sar f jb sarch ar ulivalud, bu n 8 Obsrvabl facrs ay affc h ran ffc nn-prprinally. Th ran ffc ay, hwvr, n dpnd n unbsrvabls unlss addiinal assupins ar ipsd (s,.g., Richardsn and van dn Brg, 2008). 9 N ha dspi h yuh unplyn ra is a i-varying xplanary variabl, i is f n us fr idnificain, sinc is variain is h sa acrss all bsrvains in h sapl. 16 Ovr d u ca i n a h s a r f h c a r r - s p p ing s n r r a p?

19 cninuus. By cnras, h (i-varying) yuh unplyn ra can b rgardd as a cninuus cvaria. Mrvr, Gaur al. (2007, p. 1186) cnclud n h basis f hir xnsiv Mn Carl analysis ha, wih s xgnus variain in hazard ras vr calndar i, n subjc-spcific cvarias ar rquird in rdr idnify ran and spll-durain ffcs. 6. X and V shuld b indpndnly disribud. This is a srng assupin, bu i can b rlaxd if n is willing assu ha h unbsrvd hrgniy cndiinal n x can b wrin as ν k xp(xμ k ) (fr k =, ), whr V k is hn indpndnly disribud fr X and whr μ k is s unknwn parar vcr. In his cas i is n difficul s ha h ran ffc blw is sill cnsisnly siad, bu ha h parars assciad h cvarias f x can n lngr b givn a srucural inrprain. This is vry siilar Chabrlain s (1980) widly usd xnsin f h rand ffc prbi dl (s Cckx al., In prss, fr furhr discussin). 7. Finally, T and T ar indpndn cndiinally n X and V. This ans ha h hazard ras adqua plyn and vrducain ay n dpnd n unbsrvd i-varying shcks. Evn if w cann xclud bias inducd by such shcks a h individual lvl, h inclusin f h i-varying yuh unplyn ra ais a capuring sasnal and businss cycl shcks a h aggrga lvl. 4. Rsuls 4.1 Main rsuls In his subscin w firs discuss h ain rsuls. In a subsqun subscin w rpr a nubr f snsiiviy analyss. In h ain x w fcus n h ran ffcs. Th cpl siain rsuls can b fund in Appndix C. On h basis f h AIC w rain fr bh ulind spcificains f h ran ffc (cnsan and xndd) h dl wih hr hrgniy yps. Hwvr, h prbabiliy assignd n f h pins f suppr is sall (4%), s ha h sias ar n vry diffrn fr a dl wih w pins f suppr. This ay als xplain why h crrlain bwn V and V is s cls 1 17 Ovr d u ca i n a h s a r f h c a r r - s p p ing s n r r a p?

20 (cf. Appndix C): h dl wih w pins f suppr is quivaln a dl wih a n-facr spcificain fr which h crrlain can nly b 0, 1 r -1. A psiiv crrlain ans ha h dl idnifis a psiiv slcin n unbsrvabls. Hnc, h dl ha ds n crrc fr unbsrvd hrgniy vrsias h ran ffc. This can b vrifid by cparing h ran ffcs f h bnchark dls ha ignr unbsrvd hrgniy as rprd in Tabl C-2 (Appndix C) h ran ffcs rprd in Tabl 2 blw. Th ain siain rsuls f h bnchark dl ar suarizd in Tabl 2. A r cprhnsiv prsnain is rprd in Tabl C-1. As shwn by panl A, h pin sia f h ran ffc in ur bnchark dl is vry ngaiv and highly significan. In h full sapl h nhly ransiin ra in adqua plyn drps by abu 96% 10 in h subsqun nhs afr nring vrducad plyn. This supprs h hyphsis f h dscripiv analysis in Scin 2.3 ha vrducain is a rap and n a spping sn adqua plyn. Tabl 2: Main rsuls - sias fr h slcd dls A. Cnsan ran B. Exndd dl ffc dl Tran ffc Cnsan: δ *** (0.287) *** (0.354) Inracin wih ( - 0): δ (0.012) Inracin wih ( - 0) 2 : δ 2* (0.011) Inracin wih 0: δ *** (0.088) Inracin wih ( 0) 2 : δ (0.004) Lg-liklihd AIC Parars Obsrvains Sandard rrrs in parnhss. *** indicas significanc a h 1% lvl, ** significanc a h 5% lvl and * significanc a h 10% lvl = 1 - xp(-3.171). 18 Ovr d u ca i n a h s a r f h c a r r - s p p ing s n r r a p?

21 Panl B suarizs h siain rsuls fr h xndd dl. Firs, h pin sias fr δ 1 and δ 2, capuring h ffc hrgniy in h lapsd durain sinc inflw in a jb fr which n is vrducad, ar n saisically significan. Nihr h lcking-in nr h invsn ffcs s ar uch hrfr, r bh ffcs igh cunrac. Scnd, by cnras, δ 3 is highly significan. This ans ha yung n dlay h ransiin an adqua jb by accping jbs fr which hy ar vrducad r a h sar f h unplyn spll rahr han lar n. Th agniud f his advrs ffc dclins wih unplyn durain and, if w ignr h insignifican scnd rdr r (δ 4 ), i bcs vn psiiv bynd an unplyn durain f 17.6 nhs. 11 This wuld b an ipran finding, sinc i wuld an ha nly shr-r unplyd graduas g rappd in vrducain. Lng-r unplyd wuld acclra h ransiin an adqua jb by prarily accping a jb fr which hy ar vrducad. Hwvr, his cnclusin crucially hings n ignring h insignifican scnd rdr r δ 4. If w ak i in accun, h ran ffc aains a axiu a 29 nhs 12 and dcrass again hrafr. A his axiu h ransiin ra an adqua jb afr nry in vrducad vrducad is sill 51% 13 blw wha i wuld hav bn if n wuld hav nly accpd adqua jbs. In h snsiiviy analysis blw, w will argu ha his is h crrc inrprain f ur findings. Th ransiin vrducain is hus nvr a spping sn, bu always a rap, vn if h findings ar cnsisn wih h hyphsis ha n can rduc h ngaiv scarring ffc f unplyn durain by accping a jb fr which n is vrducad. N ha h ransiin ra adqua jbs xhibis clar ngaiv durain dpndnc whil ha jbs fr which n is vrducad incrass wih unplyn durain (cf. Tabl C-1 in Appndix C). W brifly discuss s scndary rsuls rprd fr h xndd dl. N ha a srucural inrprain f h cfficins fr h bsrvd cvarias is hazardus givn h pnial dpndnc bwn X and V. 14 W find ha h plyn gap bwn frign and naiv yuh is significanly largr fr h ransiin in jbs fr which n is vrducad han fr h ransiin in adqua jbs. In addiin w g a sabl psiiv ffc f an hnurs dgr in riary ducain n h ransiin adqua plyn. Cnducing any sudn wrk during ducain affcs h ransiin vrducad and adqua plyn wih a siilar agniud = 4.08/ = 0.232/(2*0.004) * *29 2 = and 1 - xp(-0.716) = S h discussin f h idnifying assupin 6 in Scin Ovr d u ca i n a h s a r f h c a r r - s p p ing s n r r a p?

22 Th fac ha h highr ducad ar cris paribus lss likly lav unplyn is s prbably a cnsqunc f nly raining yung n in h sapl wh sard jb sarch afr laving schl: his grup is a ngaivly slcd subsapl f h highr ducad. On igh argu ha his igh caus nn-prprinaliy f h unbsrvd drinans f h ransiins fr unplyn, sinc fr lwr lvls f ducain his ngaiv slcin is lss an issu bcaus hy ar lss likly find a jb idialy afr laving schl. Cndiinal n h lvl f ducainal aainn, n igh hrfr xpc highr V s fr h lwr ducad han fr h highr ducad. W will ry addrss his issu in h firs par f h snsiiviy analysis rprd in h nx subscin. 4.2 Snsiiviy analysis In Tabl 3 w rpr s rbusnss chcks f ur ain rsul ha yung n g rappd in jbs fr which hy ar vrducad. Firs, w r-sia ur dl sparaly n h fur subsapls dfind accrding hir highs aaind lvl f ducain. 15 W d s bcaus w ar paricularly cncrnd wih h failur f h MPH assupin acrss lvls f ducainal aainn (s ur discussin f idnifying assupin 4 in Scin 3.3 as wll as ur discussin a h nd f h prvius subscin). Hwvr, panls A1 unil A4 indica ha h sias f h ran ffcs ar n diffrn acrss hs subgrups. Fr all ducainal lvls, accping a jb fr which n is vrducad prlngs h ransiin an adqua jb. Mrvr, δ 1 and δ 2 ar insignifican fr all subsapls. As in h pld analysis, δ 3 is larg and psiiv, bu nly significanly s fr h w lws lvls f ducain. Finally, δ 4 is sysaically ngaiv and vn significanly s (a h 10% lvl) fr graduas wih a scndary ducain. Mrvr, if his quadraic r is akn in accun, h ran ffc rains ngaiv fr all pssibl unplyn durains. Ths findings ar hrfr rassuring and cnsisn wih h ain findings rprd in Scin 4.1. In a scnd snsiiviy s w inrduc r hrgniy in h ran ffc. On h n hand i culd b argud ha in a bing cny i wuld b asir pr fr vrducain an adqua jb. On h hr hand w wan capur h diffrnc in ran ffcs accrding diffrncs in skills, sinc n ay argu ha, wihin ach ducainal 15 Fr h dls rprd in panls A and C h lws AIC was baind wih w pins f suppr, whil fr h dl rprd in panl B 3 pins f suppr wr rquird. Fr h dl rprd in panl D n pin f suppr was pial. This is prbably du h rlaivly sall nubr f bsrvains in his sapl. Sinc h findings f his dl ar qui diffrn fr h dls accuning fr hrgniy and sinc ang h dls ha accun fr hrgniy h n wih 3 pins f suppr yilds h lws AIC, w chs rpr h parar sias f h lar dl rahr han hs f h dl ha disrgards unbsrvd hrgniy. 20 Ovr d u ca i n a h s a r f h c a r r - s p p ing s n r r a p?

23 lvl, h highr skilld ransi fasr an adqua jb. This wuld b vidnc f prin inducd by gnuin vrducain, sinc h r skilld ar r likly b gnuinly vrducad and h lar ar r likly pr (cf. h discussin in Scin 1). T his nd, w furhr includ inracins wih h unplyn ra and h yars f schling dlay a h ag f 16. Panl B indicas ha nihr f h w addiinal inracin ffcs ar significan. Exndd dl (snsiiviy analysis 2) 2 2 ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ur dlay (4-1) Thirdly, w s h rbusnss f ur rsuls h alrnaiv asur f vrducain as dfind in Scin 2.2. This alrnaiv asur rsuls in a rarrangn f h sapl f graduas vr h fur subsapls: subsapls C, E, OC and OE cpris 97, 886, 267 and 184 individuals rspcivly. As xplaind in Scin 2.2, accrding his alrnaiv asur h dgr f vrducain is uch lwr and hrfr i is r likly ha gnuin vrducain is capurd. If s, h liklihd f prin shuld incras. Hwvr, h siad ran ffcs ar vry cparabl hs f h bnchark dl. A firs ain diffrnc is ha h quadraic inracin r wih unplyn durain (δ 4 ) is nw vry significanly diffrn fr zr. This prvids furhr cnfirain ha w shuld ak his inracin r in accun whn inrpring h rsuls. A scnd ain diffrnc is h significanc f δ 1 and δ 2, h inracins wih h i sinc nry in a jb fr which n is vrducad (- 0 ): h nrapn ffc is (slighly) r prnuncd during h firs 70 nhs. Tabl 3: Snsiiviy analysis - sias fr h slcd dls A1. A2. A3. A4. B. C. Snsiiviy Snsiiviy Snsiiviy Snsiiviy Snsiiviy Snsiiviy analysis 1 analysis 1 analysis 1 analysis 1 analysis 2 analysis 3 Subppulain Subppulain Subppulain Subppulain Addiinal Mdifid Lwr Highr Lwr Highr ran subjciv scndary scndary riary riary inracins vrducain ducain ducain ducain ducain Masur Tran ffc Cnsan: δ *** *** *** *** *** (0.618) (0.689) (0.606) (2.906) (0.605) (0.267) Inracin wih ( - 0): δ *** (0.022) (0.017) (0.042) (0.088) (0.012) (0.016) 21 Ovr d u ca i n a h s a r f h c a r r - s p p ing s n r r a p?

24 Inracin wih ( - 0) 2 : ** δ 2*100 (0.018) (0.015) (0.053) (0.125) (0.010) (0.015) Inracin wih 0: δ *** 0.421*** ** 0.320*** (0.121) (0.152) (0.214) (0.350) (0.090) (0.072) Inracin wih ( 0) 2 : δ * ** (0.005) (0.006) (0.013) (0.012) (0.004) (0.003) Inracin wih unplyn ra: δ 5 (0.028) Inracin wih yars f schling dlay (ag f 16): δ 6 (0.153) Lg-liklihd AIC Parars Obsrvains Sandard rrrs in parnhss. *** indicas significanc a h 1% lvl, ** significanc a h 5% lvl and * significanc a h 10% lvl. In a final snsiiviy analysis w als includd h fild f riary ducain as ain xplanary variabls. Hwvr, hs variabls wr hardly significan in nihr f h hazard ras and influncd h findings nly ngligibly Discussin Th finding ha vrducain srngly rards h ransiin adqua plyn clarly challngs Sichran and Galrs (1990) carr biliy hsis. This adds h r indirc vidnc prvidd by hr rsarchrs wh sudid upward biliy f vrducad individuals, and wh cncludd ha any individuals rain vrducad fr vry lng prids (cf. Scin 1). I als cnfirs h cnclusins f sudis ha s his hry in an indirc way by invsigaing h rlainship bwn vrducain and raining paricipain r skill acquisiin. Ths sudis in gnral find ha vrducad wrkrs paricipa lss fn in raining and acquir lss addiinal 16 1 individual is drppd sinc (s)h was h nly n wih ars scndary ducain a h ag f 16 causing piizain prbls individual is drppd sinc (s)h was h nly n wih vcainal scndary ducain a h ag f 16 causing piizain prbls. 18 Ths rsuls ar n rprd, bu ar availabl upn rqus. 22 Ovr d u ca i n a h s a r f h c a r r - s p p ing s n r r a p?

25 skills han adqualy ducad wrkrs wih a siilar ducainal backgrund (Rbs, 1995; van Srnburg and van dr Vldn, 2000; Büchl and Mrns, 2004; Vrhas and Oy, In prss). An fn-frulad criicis n h liraur f vrducain is ha any wrkrs ar nly apparnly vrducad (Chvalir, 2003; Grn and McInsh, 2007), i.. bcaus f ccupainal upgrading and/r lwr qualiy f huan capial, hy ar frally vrducad bu n vrskilld. Hnc, fr hs individuals, aking a ransiin a jb fr which hy ar frally adqualy ducad ay siply b n an pin. Whil his igh b ru fr s f h individuals, w hav n indicains ha his is h ain drivr f ur rsuls. Firs, by fcusing ur analysis n graduas w d n fac h prbl ha wrk xprinc cnfunds h asur f vrducain. This rducs h liklihd f isasuring vrducain. Scnd, w accund fr slcin n unbsrvabls, iplying ha ur basic sias ar likly rflcing h ru causal ffc f vrducain and n jus unbsrvd abiliy (Luvn and Osrbk, 2011). Thirdly, addiinal sias did n dlivr indicains f hrgnus ffcs dpnding n skill lvl as asurd by h yars f schling dlay. Finally, ur rsuls wr largly siilar if basd n an adapd subjciv vrducain asur which is arguably a br asur f gnuin vrducain. If vrducain is n a spping sn an adqua jb, n ay wndr why? Wha xplains h srng nrapn ffc idialy afr nranc in vrducain? And why ds his nrapn ffc n dcras lar n? An xplanain fr h srng iniial nrapn ffc ay b ha, by accping a psiin ha ds n ach wih n s lvl f ducainal aainn, h wrkr ay ransi a ngaiv signal prspciv plyrs (McCrick, 1990). Furhrr, i ay b difficul ainain h sa jb sarch innsiy n-h-jb han whn n is unplyd. If s, his ay als rduc h incniv fr plyrs cra vacancis fr adqualy achd jbs and hrby rinfrc h lw ransiin ra an adqua jb (s Dlad al., 2009). 19 Th nrapn ffc igh n dcras vr i as a cnsqunc f invsns in spcific huan capial (Pissarids, 1994), cgniiv dclin (d Grip al., 2008), r habiuain (Vrhas and Oy, 2009). Givn h srng nrapn ffc f vrducain, w nd undrsand why individuals ar prpard accp such jbs. On xplanain is ha individuals ar crdi cnsraind. Sinc schllavrs ar nly nild unplyn bnfis afr nin nhs f rgisrd unplyn, his is a naural xplanain, spcially s if hy ar n lngr financially dpndn n hir parns inc. 15% f h individuals in h sapl raind fr h analysis lf h parnal h a h 19 Th lw liklihd f finding an adqua psiin ay als b xplaind by an fficincy wag yp f argun (Sk, 2006). 23 Ovr d u ca i n a h s a r f h c a r r - s p p ing s n r r a p?

26 n a which hy sard jb sarch. Furhrr, afr xpirain f his waiing prid, h bnfi lvl is lw. Fr singls and chabiing individuals i is n vry diffrn fr h anssd scial assisanc bnfi lvl. 20 Bu vn wihu crdi cnsrains, i ay b pial accp such jbs. Firs, h financial and psychlgical css f vrducain ar, alhugh significan, sill rlaivly ds in cparisn hs f bing unplyd (Vrhas and Oy, 2009). Albrch and Vran (2002) dvlpd a aching dl in which hy shw ha i ay b pial fr skilld wrkrs accp unskilld jbs as lng as h prduciviy diffrncs bwn skilld and unskilld jbs ar n larg. In ha cas, h xpcd surplus f arnings rsuling fr fuur adqua plyn n lngr uwighs h inc lss rsuling fr unplyn. N ha h argun applis vn if h dl did n allw h high skilld wrkrs cninu sarch n h jb fr which hy ar vrducad. This faur is cnsisn wih srng nrapn. Scnd, h liklihd f finding an adqua jb ay b rahr lw anyway du scarring ffcs f unplyn durain. By accping a jb fr which n is vrducad, hs scarring ffcs ay b rducd. This is cnsisn wih ur findings ha h ransiin ra adqua jbs xhibis ngaiv durain dpndnc 21 and ha nrapn in vrducain dcrass wih unplyn durain. 6. Cnclusin In his rsarch prjc w invsigad whhr vrducain a h sar f h carr spds up h ransiin adqua plyn. Cnrary any hr cnribuins in his rsarch ara, w handld slcin n bh bsrvabls and unbsrvabls. Fr his, w applid h Tiing f Evns apprach. Our findings indica ha, vn fr lng-r unplyd yung ppl, accping a jb fr which n is vrducad srngly rards h ransiin an adqua jb. This rsul 20 Dpnding n facrs such as chabiain saus and nubr f childrn, h unplyn bnfi is nly 4-24% highr han h scial assisanc bnfi lvl (surc: Nainal Eplyn Offic (NEO) and Fdral Public Srvic fr Scial Ingrain (FPS SI) f h Blgian gvrnn). In addiin, in cnras bnficiaris f scial assisanc, h unplyd ar usually n nild rducd ras f lcunicain, lcriciy, haing and public ranspr. 21 N ha his is nly h cas if w asur vrducain accrding h jb analysis hd. If w asur i by h difid subjciv hd, h durain dpndnc f h ransiin ra bh adqua jbs and jbs fr which n is vrducad is psiiv (cf. Tabl C-3, panl C in Appndix C). W hav n clar xplanain fr his finding. 24 Ovr d u ca i n a h s a r f h c a r r - s p p ing s n r r a p?

27 was fund b rbus agains varius snsiiviy chcks. W advancd s xplanains f why unplyd graduas ay nvrhlss chs fr such jbs and why hy d n quickly ransi a jb ha achs wih hir lvl f ducainal aainn. Fr a plicy pin f viw, i is ipran srss ha n cann cnclud fr his sudy ha a wrkr shuld rahr cninu sarching fr an adqua jb han accping a jb fr which n is vrducad. Individuals wh chs fr his sragy will dfinily rain lngr unplyd, which can b scially lss dsirabl han bing plyd in a jb ha ds n ach h acquird ducainal aainn. Hwvr, if a plicy akr ais a aching unplyd graduas an adqua jb as sn as pssibl, (s)h br ds n frc h accp jbs fr which hy ar vrducad, sinc hs jbs crainly d n ac as a spping sns. Appndix A: Addiinal infrain abu s xplanary variabls Tabl A-1: Addiinal infrain abu s xplanary variabls Variabl na Grandhr (hr s sid) frign Highs aaind lvl f ducain Fahr s (hr s) ducainal lvl Yuh unplyn ra Variabl dails Duy = 1 if h rspndn s grandhr n hr s sid has n h Blgian nr a Nrh Arican, Briish, Scandinavian, Wsrn Eurpan r Ausralian nainaliy. Unlss hrwis sad, variabls rflcing h ducainal carr f h rspndn ar asurd a h n h yungsr sps schling (fr h firs i). This variabl asurs fr h parn h nubr f succssful schling yars bynd priary schl. E.g. i is qual 6 if h parn has succssfully cpld gnral r chnical scndary ducain, bu did n succssfully cpl any yar f highr ducain. This is h sasnally unadjusd nhly Blgian unplyn ra fr als agd lss han 25 yars fllwing h ILO dfiniin (surc: Eursa). 25 Ovr d u ca i n a h s a r f h c a r r - s p p ing s n r r a p?

28 Appndix B: Th liklihd cnribuins 22 Th firs cndiinal cnribuin cncrns individuals wihu any ransiin in (vrducad r adqua) plyn bfr h nd f nh c afr which hy ar righ cnsrd du n f h rasns dscribd in Scin 2.1. l c c A V xp,x,v x, V (B-1) i1 i i In h abv xprssin subscrip A ( an ) rfrs n prir xprinc in vrducad plyn (subscrip P ( ps ) in hr xprssins will labl hazard ras in adqua plyn afr s prir xprinc in vrducain). Th scnd cnribuin prains individuals wh find an adqua jb in nh wihu any prir xprinc in vrducain. xp 1 i1 A A,x,V l V A,x,V x,v A,x,V x,v 1 xp,x,v x,v i i (B-2) Exprssin (B-2) can b inrprd as a cping risk dl in which h firs facr is h prbabiliy f laving unplyn fr adqua plyn givn ha n lavs unplyn in nh and in which h subsqun facrs xprss h chanc n laving unplyn in nh (hird facr) afr saying unplyd unil nh -1 (scnd facr). Th hird cnribuin cncrns individuals wh find a jb fr which n is vrducad in nh wihu any subsqun ransiin in adqua plyn bfr h nd f nh c afr which hy ar righ cnsrd. 22 S Cckx al. (2010) fr a daild drivain. 26 Ovr d u ca i n a h s a r f h c a r r - s p p ing s n r r a p?

29 27 Ovr d u ca i n a h s a r f h c a r r - s p p ing s n r r a p? c 1 j j P A P 1 1 i i i A P A c,x,v xp x,v,x,v xp,x,v xp x,v,x,v xp,x,v x,v,x,v x,v V l (B-3) Th firs facr f his xprssin rprsns h prbabiliy f laving unplyn fr vrducad plyn givn ha n lavs unplyn in nh O and ds n idialy ransi adqua plyn. Nx, h subsqun w facrs xprss h prbabiliy f laving unplyn in nh O wihu ransiing idialy adqua plyn cndiinal n raining unplyd unil nh O -1. Th las facr quals h survival prbabiliy in vrducad unplyn unil h nh c a which n is cnsrd. Th las cnribuin rlas individuals wh firs ransi a jb fr which hy ar vrducad in nh and subsqunly an adqua jb in nh. Exprssin (B-4) crrspnds (B-3) xcp ha i is uliplid by (i) h prbabiliy f laving vrducad plyn in nh fr adqua plyn (h las facr) and (ii) h survival prbabiliy in vrducad unplyn unil nh -1 (h bfr las facr). P 1 1 j j P A P 1 1 i i i A P A,x,V xp 1,x,V xp x,v,x,v xp,x,v xp x,v,x,v xp,x,v x,v,x,v x,v V l (B-4)

30 Appndix C: Cpl siain rsuls Tabl C-1: Main rsuls - sias fr h slcd dls A. Cnsan ran B. Exndd dl ffc dl Tran ffc Cnsan: δ *** (0.287) *** (0.354) Inracin wih ( - 0): δ (0.012) Inracin wih ( - 0) 2 : δ 2* (0.011) Inracin wih 0: δ *** (0.088) Inracin wih ( 0) 2 : δ (0.004) Explanary variabls Cnsan *** *** *** *** (0.505) (1.068) (0.605) (1.105) Highs aaind lvl f ducain Lwr scndary ducain 0.308** (0.152) (0.215) (0.176) (0.222) Scndary ducain (rf.) Lwr riary ducain ** *** *** *** (0.140) (0.169) (0.148) (0.165) Highr riary ducain *** *** *** *** (0.180) (0.222) (0.210) (0.222) Addiinal succssful yars a schl afr highs aaind lvl f ducain (0.083) (0.118) (0.101) (0.127) Addiinal dgr a highs aaind lvl f ducain (0.211) (0.267) (0.248) (0.254) Triary ducain: grad N grad (rf.) Wih hnurs (cu laud) 0.309** ** (0.141) (0.197) (0.176) (0.198) Wih gra/highs hnurs (cu agna/axia laud) 0.576** ** (0.289) (0.307) (0.307) (0.282) Yars f schling dlay (a ag f 16) (0.071) (0.108) (0.080) (0.093) Schl rinain a ag f Ovr d u ca i n a h s a r f h c a r r - s p p ing s n r r a p?

31 Gnral scndary ducain * * (0.105) (0.156) (0.121) (0.140) Tchnical scndary ducain (rf.) Ars scndary ducain (0.396) (0.520) (0.402) (0.456) Vcainal scndary ducain ** * (0.123) (0.193) (0.139) (0.164) Fahr s ducainal lvl 0.038** *** (0.015) (0.023) (0.017) (0.021) Mhr s ducainal lvl (0.017) (0.024) (0.019) (0.022) Grandhr (hr s sid) frign *** *** (0.163) (0.280) (0.190) (0.271) Yar f birh (0.081) (0.112) (0.100) (0.121) 1980 (rf.) Any inrnship during ducain * (0.090) (0.128) (0.103) (0.120) Any sudn jb during ducain 0.372*** 0.352** 0.422*** 0.340** (0.113) (0.151) (0.132) (0.146) Sar f jb sarch: quarr in h yar Firs quarr (0.139) (0.193) (0.158) (0.202) Scnd quarr *** ** *** (0.106) (0.142) (0.119) (0.142) Third quarr (rf.) Furh quarr ** ** (0.160) (0.192) (0.173) (0.183) Mnhs bwn laving schl and saring jb sarch ** ** (0.011) (0.016) (0.014) (0.016) Yuh unplyn ra (0.013) (0.018) (0.014) (0.019) Durain dpndnc Є [0,1) (rf.) Є [1,2) ** (0.136) (0.142) (0.136) (0.131) Є [2,3) (0.204) (0.259) (0.210) (0.235) Є [3,4) * ** (0.281) (0.390) (0.288) (0.328) Є [4,6) ** (0.330) (0.548) (0.316) (0.426) Є [6,9) * 0.998* * (0.335) (0.600) (0.317) (0.458) Є [9,18) ** 1.221** ** (0.322) (0.567) (0.309) (0.489) 29 Ovr d u ca i n a h s a r f h c a r r - s p p ing s n r r a p?

32 > *** 2.09*** ** (0.288) (0.790) (0.394) (0.763) Unbsrvd hrgniy: sias γ (0.377) γ (0.316) ν *** 4.163*** (0.409) (0.949) ν *** 6.785*** (0.446) (1.009) (0.335) (0.271) 1.059** 4.015*** (0.478) (0.977) 2.969*** 6.386*** (0.498) (1.039) Unbsrvd hrgniy: rsuling prbabiliis and crrlain cfficins p p p cr[xp(ν ), xp(ν )] Lg-liklihd AIC Parars Obsrvains *** indicas significanc a h 1% lvl, ** significanc a h 5% lvl and * significanc a h 10% lvl. Sandard rrrs in parnhss. Tabl C-2: Main rsuls - sias in cas f n cnrlling fr unbsrvd hrgniy A. Cnsan ran B. Exndd dl ffc dl Tran ffc Cnsan: δ *** (0.109) *** (0.139) Inracin wih ( - 0): δ * (0.011) Inracin wih ( - 0) 2 : δ 2* (0.010) Inracin wih 0: δ (0.034) Inracin wih ( 0) 2 : δ (0.001) Explanary variabls Cnsan *** *** *** *** (0.285) (0.297) (0.286) (0.297) Highs aaind lvl f ducain 30 Ovr d u ca i n a h s a r f h c a r r - s p p ing s n r r a p?

33 Lwr scndary ducain 0.289** ** (0.144) (0.150) (0.143) (0.150) Scndary ducain (rf.) Lwr riary ducain ** *** ** *** (0.122) (0.128) (0.122) (0.128) Highr riary ducain *** ** *** ** (0.156) (0.134) (0.156) (0.134) Addiinal succssful yars a schl afr highs aaind * * lvl f ducain (0.077) (0.074) (0.077) (0.074) Addiinal dgr a highs aaind lvl f ducain (0.195) (0.163) (0.195) (0.163) Triary ducain: grad N grad (rf.) Wih hnurs (cu laud) 0.320** ** (0.135) (0.118) (0.135) (0.118) Wih gra/highs hnurs (cu agna/axia laud) 0.458* * (0.250) (0.228) (0.252) (0.228) Yars f schling dlay (a ag f 16) * * (0.069) (0.069) (0.069) (0.069) Schl rinain a ag f 16 Gnral scndary ducain ** * ** * (0.099) (0.103) (0.099) (0.103) Tchnical scndary ducain (rf.) Ars scndary ducain (0.473) (0.501) (0.451) (0.502) Vcainal scndary ducain *** *** (0.117) (0.116) (0.117) (0.116) Fahr s ducainal lvl 0.035** ** (0.014) (0.014) (0.014) (0.014) Mhr s ducainal lvl (0.015) (0.015) (0.015) (0.015) Grandhr (hr s sid) frign *** *** (0.163) (0.181) (0.161) (0.181) Yar f birh (0.076) (0.075) (0.076) (0.075) 1980 (rf.) Any inrnship during ducain (0.087) (0.086) (0.086) (0.086) Any sudn jb during ducain 0.325*** 0.237** 0.332*** 0.237** (0.103) (0.098) (0.103) (0.098) Sar f jb sarch: quarr in h yar Firs quarr (0.138) (0.161) (0.138) (0.161) Scnd quarr (0.094) (0.099) (0.094) (0.099) Third quarr (rf.) 31 Ovr d u ca i n a h s a r f h c a r r - s p p ing s n r r a p?

34 Furh quarr * * (0.146) (0.138) (0.147) (0.138) Mnhs bwn laving schl and saring jb sarch (0.011) (0.013) (0.011) (0.013) Yuh unplyn ra * * (0.012) (0.013) (0.012) (0.013) Durain dpndnc Є *0,1) (rf.) Є *1,2) *** *** *** *** (0.117) (0.099) (0.117) (0.099) Є *2,3) *** *** *** *** (0.141) (0.128) (0.141) (0.128) Є *3,4) *** *** *** *** (0.182) (0.153) (0.181) (0.153) Є *4,6) *** *** *** *** (0.186) (0.182) (0.186) (0.182) Є *6,9) *** *** *** *** (0.177) (0.170) (0.176) (0.170) Є *9,18) *** *** *** *** (0.151) (0.203) (0.155) (0.203) > *** *** *** *** (0.137) (0.375) (0.233) (0.375) Lg-liklihd AIC Parars Obsrvains *** indicas significanc a h 1% lvl, ** significanc a h 5% lvl and * significanc a h 10% lvl. Sandard rrrs in parnhss. 32 Ovr d u ca i n a h s a r f h c a r r - s p p ing s n r r a p?

35 Tabl C-3: Snsiiviy analysis - sias fr h slcd dls A1. Snsiiviy A2. Snsiiviy A3. Snsiiviy A4. Snsiiviy B. Snsiiviy C. Snsiiviy analysis 1 analysis 1 analysis 1 analysis 1 analysis 2 analysis 3 Subppulain Subppulain Subppulain Subppulain Addiinal ran Mdifid subjciv Lwr scndary Scndary Lwr riary Highr riary inracins vrducain ducain ducain ducain ducain asur Tran ffc Cnsan: cfficin δ *** (0.618) *** (0.689) *** (0.606) (2.906) *** (0.605) Inracin wih ( - 0): δ (0.022) (0.017) (0.042) (0.088) (0.012) Inracin wih ( - 0) 2 : δ 2* (0.018) (0.015) (0.053) (0.125) (0.010) Inracin wih 0: δ *** 0.421*** ** (0.121) (0.152) (0.214) (0.350) (0.090) Inracin wih ( 0) 2 : δ * (0.005) (0.006) (0.013) (0.012) (0.004) Inracin wih unplyn ra: δ (0.028) Inracin wih yars f schling dlay (a ag f 16): δ 6 (0.153) *** (0.267) *** (0.016) 0.032** (0.015) 0.320*** (0.072) ** (0.003) Explanary variabls Cnsan *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** (1.040) (1.077) (0.676) (1.211) (1.195) (0.972) (1.611) (1.574) (0.649) (1.113) (0.372) (0.706) Highs aaind lvl f ducain Lwr scndary ducain (0.176) (0.221) (0.166) (0.228) Scndary ducain (rf.) 33 Ovr d u ca i n a h s a r f h c a r r - s p p ing s n r r a p?

36 Lwr riary ducain *** *** *** * (0.148) (0.166) (0.133) (0.192) Highr riary ducain *** *** *** (0.212) (0.221) (0.185) (0.236) Addiinal succssful yars a schl afr ** * highs aaind lvl f ducain (0.133) (0.128) (0.138) (0.327) (0.391) (0.356) (0.430) (0.274) (0.102) (0.127) (0.090) (0.132) Addiinal dgr a highs aaind lvl f * ducain (0.400) (0.615) (0.864) (0.694) (0.552) (0.496) (0.249) (0.255) (0.212) (0.253) Triary ducain: grad N grad (rf.) Wih hnurs (cu laud) ** * (0.256) (0.238) (0.303) (0.279) (0.179) (0.200) (0.166) (0.201) Wih gra/highs hnurs 1.866*** ** *** (cu agna/axia laud) (0.433) (1.186) (0.771) (0.317) (0.307) (0.281) (0.284) (0.369) Yars f schling dlay (a ag f 16) * ** * * (0.133) (0.134) (0.100) (0.169) (0.263) (0.257) (0.410) (0.259) (0.093) (0.093) (0.076) (0.110) Schl rinain a ag f 16 Gnral scndary ducain ** ** * * (0.505) (0.519) (0.155) (0.250) (0.227) (0.212) (0.476) (0.390) (0.121) (0.140) (0.113) (0.165) Tchnical scndary ducain (rf.) Ars scndary ducain *** (0.500) (0.742) (0.613) (1.113) (3.659) (3.301) (0.404) (0.458) (0.387) (0.486) Vcainal scndary ducain ** * (0.240) (0.252) (0.171) (0.247) (0.140) (0.164) (0.141) (0.185) Fahr s ducainal lvl *** 0.083* 0.152** *** *** 0.046* (0.039) (0.036) (0.023) (0.047) (0.060) (0.042) (0.056) (0.055) (0.017) (0.021) (0.016) (0.025) Mhr s ducainal lvl ** *** (0.043) (0.036) (0.024) (0.042) (0.055) (0.042) (0.058) (0.050) (0.019) (0.022) (0.016) (0.024) Grandhr (hr s sid) frign *** ** *** *** *** *** (0.300) (0.302) (0.258) (0.477) (0.429) (0.752) (0.942) (0.784) (0.192) (0.273) (0.161) (0.304) Yar f birh 34 Ovr d u ca i n a h s a r f h c a r r - s p p ing s n r r a p?

37 ** ** (0.198) (0.179) (0.122) (0.196) (0.269) (0.267) (0.391) (0.358) (0.102) (0.123) (0.085) (0.119) 1980 (rf.) Any inrnship during ducain (0.240) (0.211) (0.137) (0.263) (0.349) (0.353) (0.457) (0.300) (0.103) (0.119) (0.102) (0.134) Any sudn jb during ducain 0.799*** 0.503** ** ** 0.420*** 0.335** 0.395*** 0.442*** (0.245) (0.227) (0.171) (0.243) (0.597) (0.319) (0.625) (0.472) (0.132) (0.145) (0.116) (0.157) Sar f jb sarch: quarr in h yar Firs quarr 0.491* (0.280) (0.394) (0.190) (0.309) (0.605) (0.702) (1.952) (1.836) (0.159) (0.201) (0.147) (0.215) Scnd quarr 0.597** ** *** ** *** ** *** ** *** (0.246) (0.245) (0.163) (0.311) (0.344) (0.343) (0.552) (0.355) (0.121) (0.142) (0.110) (0.179) Third quarr (rf.) Furh quarr 1.067** *** 1.460*** 0.689** ** 0.447*** 0.548*** (0.451) (0.360) (0.236) (0.290) (0.470) (0.301) (0.673) (0.486) (0.173) (0.184) (0.150) (0.206) Mnhs bwn laving schl and saring jb ** *** ** * ** sarch (0.019) (0.022) (0.015) (0.043) (0.141) (0.088) (0.242) (0.143) (0.014) (0.016) (0.012) (0.020) Yuh unplyn ra ** 0.067* ** (0.028) (0.036) (0.019) (0.032) (0.035) (0.039) (0.068) (0.056) (0.019) (0.019) (0.013) (0.021) Durain dpndnc Є *0,1) (rf.) Є *1,2) *** 0.883** 0.571** (0.268) (0.242) (0.202) (0.436) (0.282) (0.237) (0.416) (0.265) (0.137) (0.130) (0.108) (0.143) Є *2,3) *** 1.510*** *** ** (0.386) (0.387) (0.280) (0.555) (0.322) (0.352) (0.712) (0.284) (0.215) (0.233) (0.159) (0.223) Є *3,4) *** 1.130** *** ** 0.384* 0.811*** (0.453) (0.458) (0.473) (1.300) (0.482) (0.368) (1.206) (0.370) (0.296) (0.322) (0.216) (0.289) Є *4,6) ** *** 1.079** * ** (0.544) (0.633) (0.523) (1.200) (0.525) (0.448) (2.072) (0.824) (0.325) (0.415) (0.243) (0.410) Є *6,9) *** 1.203** ** *** ** 0.562** 0.996** (0.539) (0.520) (0.482) (1.232) (0.467) (0.735) (2.354) (0.900) (0.328) (0.444) (0.231) (0.481) 35 Ovr d u ca i n a h s a r f h c a r r - s p p ing s n r r a p?

38 Є *9,18) * *** 1.403** *** ** ** 0.437* 1.487*** (0.616) (0.768) (0.447) (1.207) (577) (0.467) (2.768) (1.049) (0.315) (0.477) (0.265) (0.533) > (0.716) ** (0.737) (0.591) 3.727*** (1.398) 1.822** (0.781) (3.143) 4.830*** (1.200) (0.398) 1.852** (0.758) (0.410) 2.490*** (0.755) Unbsrvd hrgniy: sias γ (0.317) (0.188) (0.223) (0.303) (0.336) γ (0.343) (2.399) (0.275) ν *** 1.451*** 2.213*** 6.432*** 3.666*** *** 1.081** 4.024*** (0.713) (0.537) (0.512) (1.029) (0.558) (0.342) (2.438) (0.910) (0.466) (0.985) ν *** *** 6.403*** + 27 (0.825) (3.803) (0.499) (1.038) (0.176) (0.365) 2.142*** 2.382*** (0.211) (0.488) *** - (0.404) Unbsrvd hrgniy: rsuling prbabiliis and crrlain cfficins p p p cr[xp(v ), xp(v )] Lg-liklihd AIC Parars Obsrvains *** indicas significanc a h 1% lvl, ** significanc a h 5% lvl and * significanc a h 10% lvl. Sandard rrrs in parnhss. 26 N inflw in a jb fr which n is vrducad in his i inrval. 27 This hrgniy parar was siad as a larg psiiv nubr causing a 1 prbabiliy wih rspc ving in vrducad plyn fr his paricular yp. This is nurically prblaic. Whn w fac his prbl, in h spiri f Gaur al. (2007), w ark h ffnding parar as psiiv infiniy and kp i u f furhr siain. 28 This hrgniy parar was siad as a larg ngaiv nubr causing a 0 prbabiliy wih rspc ving in vrducad plyn fr his paricular yp. This is nurically prblaic. Whn w fac his prbl, in h spiri f Gaur al. (2007), w ark h ffnding parar as ngaiv infiniy and kp i u f furhr siain. 36 Ovr d u ca i n a h s a r f h c a r r - s p p ing s n r r a p?

39 Survival Appndix D: Addiinal figurs Figur D-1: Kaplan-Mir sias: survival in unplyn unil nry in a firs jb (difid slfassssn hd) 1 firs adqua jb firs jb Durain unil plyn sinc h sar f jb sarch (nhs) 37 Ovr d u ca i n a h s a r f h c a r r - s p p ing s n r r a p?

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