Labour market matching the case of Poland

Transcription

1 Bank i Krdy 43 (3), 202, 346 wwwbankikrdynbl wwwbankandcrdinbl Labour mark maching h cas of Poland Ewa Gałcka-Burdziak* Submid: 3 January 202 Accd: 26 Aril 202 Absrac Par dscribs maching on Polish labour mark comaring simulanously h rocss mchanism random rsus sock flow on This aims a drmining h rol of sock and flow ariabls in gnraing ouflows from unmloymn Analysd riod, , rflcs rlaily consqun bhaiour of h Bridg cur Thr ar rsnd simas of h maching funcion, also handling h bias rsuling from daa moral aggrgaion Such roblm ariss whn discr im daa is usd o dscrib h coninuous-im rocss Elmns of h Marko ransiion marix ar xloid o aroxima h magniud of h ffcs corrsonding o basic flows on h labour mark influncing h maching rocss: on-h-job sarch, ou-of- -labour forc sarch and discouragd workrs Kywords: moral aggrgaion, sock-flow maching, random maching JEL: J63, J64 * PhD sudn a Darmn of Economics I, Warsaw School of Economics; -mail: wagalcka@gmailcom

2 32 E Gałcka-Burdziak Inroducion Subsanial flows of boh job skrs and job offrs imly hir co-xisnc on h labour mark Nrhlss such flows should also b akn ino considraion in maching rocss analysis If hir imac was ngligibl shor-rm ariaions in ouflow from unmloymn ough o b conncd o analogous ariaions in background socks Howr, socks ar considrably lss olail han flows Thus, incororaing inflows ino labour mark maching analysis should significanly alr i, scially comaring o basic sock-sock on On h mahmaical ground h maching rocss is dscribd by h maching funcion, mos ofn by usag of h random maching rocss (comar Pissarids 2000, ch ) This chnology assums rad aking lac bwn socks wha gnras ouflow from unmloymn o mloymn Th ohr ossibiliy is non-random (sock-flow) maching whr sock on on sid machs wih inflow of nw rading arnrs Th ar aims a dscribing labour mark maching rocss in Poland comaring simulanously h rocss mchanism random rsus sock flow on Such knowldg should incorora ino br undrsanding of Polish labour mark funcioning, drmining also h rol of inflows and socks in job craion Th analysis rfrs o riod Chosn im san rsuls from daa aailabiliy, as analysis aks ino considraion daa of nwsars ads of job offrs gahrd by Burau for Insmns and Economic Cycls in Warsaw This riod rflcs also rlaily cohrn bhaiour of h Bridg cur on Polish labour mark Th aricl is organisd as follows A firs hr is a shor dscrii analysis of Polish labour mark in maching rsci rfrring among ohrs o siz and dircions of rlan socks and flows Prsnd lmns of h Marko ransiion marix ar cound on h basis of micro daa from Labour Forc Sury (LFS) for riod Thir alus ar xloid o aroxima magniuds of h ffcs conncd o labour forc flows: ou of labour forc sarch, discouragd workrs and on h job sarch as wll as h srucur of h mloymn inflows Furhr on, hr is a shor horic dscriion of wo main labour mark maching mchanisms random and non-random This scion rfrs also o bias arising du o daa im aggrgaion Th roblm coms ou whn discr-im daa is usd o dscrib h coninuous-im maching rocss Third scion rsns rsuls of h conducd simas Emirical analysis concrns random and sock-flow maching Th rocdur adod by Grgg and Prongolo (2005) o handl h daa im aggrgaion roblm has bn also alid A h nd of h aricl hr ar rsnd concluding rmarks 2 Daa saisical analysis Figur rsns Bridg cur for Polish labour mark during h riod According o Blanchard and Diamond modl (989, 6) on can sa ha co-momns of acancis and h unmloyd during his im san can rflc h ani-clockwis momns around h downward sloing horical cur Howr riod siuad our from h coordina origin may suggs a drioraion in maching fficincy comaring o 999 Including his daa should imro qualiy of h obaind rsuls as rgisrd daa of job offrs is consanly undrsimad (Gałcka 2007, 48)

3 0 > 0 Labour mark maching h cas of Poland and sub-riods / raio cound on rgisrd sock ariabls xrincd ry low alus, from h rang (0003; 0047) Such alus imly rlai hardnss in finding a job by work skrs and rlai as finding a workr by nrriss, as on arag around 70 workrs comd for on job offr Basic conclusions rgarding rlai imoranc of socks and flows in dscribing labour mark maching in Poland may b nhancd by isual analysis of simulanous changs of aricular ariabls Figurs 2 and 3 rsn daa of h ouflow from unmloymn and unmloymn and acancy socks and flows isual inscion suggss ha rsci inflow ariabls affc ouflow from unmloymn mor han sock ariabls do Moror urnor indx inflow/sock was much highr in cas of acancis (28 on arag) han for unmloymn (0 on arag) 2 Siz of h flows on h labour mark migh also b rsnd by h Marko marix (ransiion marix), which rsns ransiion robabiliis bwn sas on h mark 3 Th Marko ransiion marix for Polish labour mark ook alus: 4 P ij 9753% (074 25% (046 22% ( % (074 25% (046 22% (035 04% ( % (549 76% (302 P ij 04% ( % (549 76% (302 27% ( % ( % (6 27% ( % ( % (6 Th marix aks h form: u n P ij u n u uu un P ij u uu un n nu nn n nu nn whr: i, j, u, n, sock of mloyd, M γ 0 2 ε M γ 0 2 ε u h unmloymn sock, n h ou of labour forc sock, M γ0 2 3 u 4 ε for xaml u h ransiion robabiliy M γ0 bwn h unmloymn 2 3 and u mloymn 4 ε socks Sum of h lmns in ach row quals by dfiniion (Kucharski 2002, 7, 202) 2 2 Th s rsuls lad o following conclusions: Th mos olail O asock is buh unmloymn ε on Probabiliy of saying in h unmloymn O ool bwn wo conscui quarrs awas highr bu in εfirs half of h dcad ( almos 86% on arag) Thn i xrincd significan dclining rnd nding u a 74% on arag _ a _ in 2009 Flows from unmloymn a o mloymn consiud on arag 6% ± 8 rcnag oins of oal ouflows, which is highr comaring o h rgisrd unmloymn 5 b b 2 Cols and Prongolo (2008, 27) ror analogus indxs for Briain (riod ) on h ll of 06 (for unmloymn) and 08 (for acancis) 3 In aggrga conx on can 0 hink of robabiliy of changing saus bing qual o arag frquncy of saus changs ( ) (Pissarids 986, 0 504) ( ) 4 Th alus ar quarrly arags for riod , sandard diaion is rsnd in arnhss Th saml rfrs o working ag oulaion, basd on h micro daa from h Labour Forc Sury 5 I was on arag qual o 45% ± 5 rcnag oins ( ) ( ) 0 2 ( ) ( ) 0 2

4 34 E Gałcka-Burdziak Anohr inrsing obsraion rfrs o discourag workr ffc, which may b aroximad by ransiion ra bwn unmloymn and ou-of-labour-forc sock 6 This ra was on arag qual o 76% wih subsanial sandard diaion wha gis h cofficin of ariaion a h ll of 42% This ra xrincd oosi changs comaring o h uu ra During h riod is man was 54% and afr uward rnd i finishd a h ll of % on arag in 2009 Changing condiions on labour mark could ha boos u his ra no only du o discourag workr ffc bu also, for xaml, by job skrs willingnss o adjus qualificaions o labour mark rquirmns I is also worh analysing srucur of mloymn inflows 7 Figur 4 rsns daa or such inflow srucur for riod Is sha suggss ha u o 2007 almos 50% (on arag) of h inflow o mloymn had origin in unmloymn and shar of boh inflows from inaciiy and mloymn was on arag qual o 25% Sinc h bginning of 2007 shar of h unmloymn o mloymn flow had subsanially dclind and ach of h inflows o mloymn consiud /3 of oal mloymn inflow 8 3 Maching rocss on h labour mark Origins of h basic maching funcion com from robabiliy hory and modl of lacing bills in urns (Blanchard, Diamond 994, 48420) In his modl firms ar rad as urns and work skrs as balls which aim o b lacd in urns Th mach ariss whn h urn bcoms roduci, wha hans in cas i has a ball in In aggrga, h co-xisnc of acancis and unmloymn ariss du o h lack of coordinaion in lacing bills in urns (coordinaion failur) n in h cas of h sam amoun of aricians on boh sids Th horough modl dscriion may b ncounrd in: Blanchard, Diamond (990; 994), Burs (977), Hall (979), Lang (99), Mongomry (99), Prongolo, Pissarids (200), Pissarids (979) On h ohr scrum hr is a sock-flow maching modl, which is dscribd for xaml in Cols (999), Cols, Muhoo (998), Cols, Prongolo (2008), Cols, Smih (998), Ebrahimy, Shimr (200), Grgg, Prongolo (2005), Lagos (2000), Prongolo, Pissarids (200), Taylor (995) Basic assumions of h modl ar analogous o funcioning of h ral sa mark or axi mark (Cols, Smih 998; Lagos 2000) Th modl adad o labour mark is rsnd in Grgg and Prongolo (2005, ) who arly bas h analysis on ha rsnd in Cols and Smih (998) On of h crucial assumions rgards h rocss of sarch islf In sock-sock mchanism job skrs aly randomly o job offrs, so h sysmaic lmn of job sarch is omid Sock-flow maching modl is basd on h ohr xrm of no randomnss in job alicaions In his siuaion work skrs, haing ossssd full knowldg rgarding aailabl job acancis, aly o as many of 6 Nrhlss, his flow consiss no only of h discouragd workrs (Prongolo, Pissarids 200, 42) 7 Th mloymn mloymn flow was calculad by couning ol haing saus working in boh conscui quarrs and bing mloyd for 0, or 2 monhs 8 Howr, if h mloymn o mloymn flow is calculad by couning ol haing saus working during wo conscui quarrs and bing mloyd for 0,, 2 or 3 monhs h rsuls diffr subsanially EE flow is on arag 4%, E 3% and IE 8% of oal inflow E flow s shar also dclins sinc h bginning of 2007, bu sinc hn EE shar incrass mor han IE flow s shar

5 Labour mark maching h cas of Poland 35 hm as hy sm o b accabl Onc finding ach ohr, aris dcid whhr o sign a wag conrac or conduc furhr sarch of h ror arnr on h labour mark Agns rsn on h mark will no rry finding a arnr among ossibl rading arnrs ha ha alrady bn on h mark sinc hy wr also aailabl for mach in rious riod and all ossibl machs ha bn alrady xloid This conclusion along wih h assumion of rfc informaion is o rflc h fac ha a firs agns scan a lo of adrismn bfor alying o slcd job offrs and onc an offr has bn rjcd ralicaion is lss likly han looking for nw acancis (Grgg, Prongolo 2005, 989; Prongolo, Pissarids 200, 405) Dscribd maching chnology inroduc shar disincion bwn socks and flows on h labour mark as h rocss aks lac bwn sock on on sid wih inflow on h ohr sid of h mark nmloymn sock will ry o mach wih inflow of acancis, whil sock of acancis will ry o mach wih inflow of nwly unmloyd This is h moiaion for h nam of sock-flow maching (Prongolo, Pissarids 200, 405) Such chnology alrs also robabiliy of laing h rlan ool by acancis or h unmloyd Probabiliy of laing unmloymn by h sock of h unmloyd is ngaily corrlad o h magniud of h unmloymn sock du o ngai xrnal ffc of crowding ou, so-calld congsion ffc I is, howr, osiily corrlad o h siz of h inflow of ossibl nw maching arnrs wha consius osii xrnal ffc hick mark ffc and is indndn of h amoun of ossibl old maching arnrs (sock of acancis) (Cols, Smih 998, 240) Rsul of no congsion bwn nwcomrs coms from h assumion of indiidual aaranc by agns on h mark, whil h maching rocss has h coninuous im srucur aking lac across im riods of infinisimal lngh (Prongolo, Pissarids 200, 406) Th sock-flow maching osssss wo addiional inrsing faurs Hazard ra for nwcomrs is likly o b biggr in comarison o h on for old agns This coms from h fac ha by rlaily shorr riods of analysis socks ar likly o b rlaily biggr han flows Howr, im dcrasing hazard ras can ha many ohr drminans, lik drioraion of human caial during unmloymn Worh noing is also h fac of incrasing rurns o scal, wha originas from ossibiliy of muli alicaions o as many job offrs as work skr wans o, which conrass o on alicaion aailabl r workr in random maching modl (Prongolo, Pissarids 200, 406) This faur aims a cauring h fac of largr ossibiliis for agns on biggr labour marks (Prongolo, Pissarids 200, 406) Moror, incrasing rurns o scal in hiring imly highr fficincy of largr labour marks and may lad o aaranc of high- -innsiy and low-innsiy quilibria (Anolín 994; Brman 997, 265, 289; Diamond 982) Brif comarison of boh modls lads o following conclusions (Cols, Smih 998, 240): Sock-flow modl assums rfc informaion on h mark, whras in random on agns nd o snd som rsourcs in ordr o gahr knowldg abou h locaion of ossibl rading arnrs Modls diffrnly jusify im ndd o las bfor i coms o mach In random maching ossibl maching arnr migh xis on h mark bu du o coordinaion failur mach has no bn ralizd y In sock-flow agns mus wai for h ror arnr o aar on h mark Random maching dos no diffrnia agns on h mark Whras, in sock-flow nwcomrs ha widr, han old agns, ossibiliis o find a ror maching arnr Thus robabiliy of laing mark by an agn should b a dcrasing funcion of im sn on h mark, if h mach wih rsn sock has no bn ralizd arlir

6 36 E Gałcka-Burdziak Anohr inrsing faur rgarding labour mark maching rfrs o roblm of a bias arising du o daa im aggrgaion Problm aars bcaus discr im daa is usd o dscrib im- -coninuous rocss, lik maching (Grgg, Prongolo 2005, 990; Prongolo, Pissarids 200, ) Siz of h bias migh b aroximad by comarison of h rsuls obaind by using daa wih diffrn frquncy, so h highr h frquncy of daa usd for h analysis h smallr h bias should b (Grgg, Prongolo 2005, 988) Howr, Grgg and Prongolo (2005, ) rsn mahmaical soluion for ossibl aggrgaion bias for boh random and sock-flow modls Alrnai soluion is rsnd in Cols, Prongolo (2008, 623) 4 Emirical idnc on aggrga labour mark maching in Poland Firs ar of mirical analysis of h maching rocsss on Polish labour mark is basd on comarison bwn sock-sock and sock-flow maching In Polish liraur on can find arious mirical rsarch conducd or labour mark maching Pars rfrring o im san ar among ohrs: Gałcka (2007; 2008), Gałcka-Burdziak (200), Kubiak (2005), Kucharski, Tokarski (2003), Roszkowska (2009), 9753% Tokarski (074 (2005) Thos 25% mirical (046 analyss 22% wr basd (035 on daa from rgisrd unmloymn mainly using rducd form of h sock-flow modl imlying ha P ij 04% ( % (549 76% (302 h driing forc of h maching rocss on Polish labour mark is combinaion of unmloymn sock and inflow of nw acancis 9 27% ( % ( % (6 Emirical analysis focuss on comarison bwn sock-sock maching and sock-flow maching Daa usd in h analysis coms from h rgisrd unmloymn for h riod Moror, du o frqun undrsimaion u n of h numbr of acancis aailabl on h labour mark, numbr of job offrs P from nwsars ads is also includd 0 ij u uu un Daa was sasonally adjusd using X-2 ARIMA n nu nn In rfrnc o h random maching quaion aks h form: 2 M γ 0 2 ε () whr: M ouflow from unmloymn M γduring 0 monh, 2 3 u 4 ε unmloymn sock a h nd of monh, acancy sock a h nd of monh, 2 O a bu ε 9 Nrhlss, simad cofficins diffr subsanially du o diffrn im sans, saial aggrgaion and ohr ariabls akn ino considraion _ a whil simaing changs in h maching fficincy Mor horough sury or maching liraur concrning Polish labour mark can b found in Gałcka (2008) and Roszkowska (2009) 0 o 2005 sum of h sock of aailabl acancis lus h inflow of nw ons was nooriously smallr han ouflows from unmloymn o mloymn Daa rfrring _ o nwsars job offrs coms from Burau for Insmn and Economic Cycls _ b S Cnsus Burau, h://wwwcnsusgo/srd/www/x2a/ All sasonally adjusd im sris wr I() 2 Analogous quaions wr simad for xaml by Prongolo, Pissarids (200, 4), for Polish labour mark by Sasiak, Tokarski (995, 2829) Esimad quaions conain also quadraic im rnd o xrss changs in maching fficincy 0 ( ) ( ) ( ) 0 2

7 P ij u n 9753% (074 u uu un P ij 04% (326 n nu nn 27% (057 Labour mark maching h cas of Poland 37 25% 880% 248% and sock-flow: 3 M γ 0 2 ε M γ0 2 3 u 4 ε whr: u inflow of nw unmloyd during monh, 2 inflow of nw acancis during monh u n O a bu ε M γ0 2 Tabl rsns rsuls for ach of h quaion using diffrn simaion mhods Firs column (I) rfrs o rsuls obaind using OLS mhod Th scond on (II) also uss OLS bu h _ rsricion for h aramrs a concrning consan rurns o scal is imosd ( ) 2 Third column (III) allows for h firs ordr srial corrlaion in h disurbanc rm Columns I rsn analogous o I and III simas _ for h sock-flow maching modl Rsuls _ O obaind a busing u ε OLS mhod showd ha b disurbanc rm includs a srially corrlad comonn, which may lad o biass in -Sudn saisics All im sris ar I(), howr, Engl-Grangr ss _ saisics a obaind for modls I show ha a 5% significanc 0 ( ) 9753% (074 ll null ) hyohsis 25% (046of h uni 22% roo s (035 in disurbanc rm should b rjcd On ha basis, wo addiional modls wr crad columns P _ ij 04% ( % (549 76% _ (302 I and II rsn rsuls for Error Corrcion Modls for random and non-random b maching as 27% ( % ( % (098 25% (046 ) 9534% (6 22% (035 a ar of wo-s Engl-Grangr coingraion rocdur (Majsrk 2008, 27) 0 2 P Rsuls do no ary significanly ( or ) diffrn ( ) scificaions for boh random and non-random maching modls Th maching funcion dscribs 0 ( ) ij 04% ( % (549 76% ( % (074 ) 25% (046 ) 22% (035 ) h 27% hiring (057rocss 04% wih mildly dcrasing rurns o scal for random maching and mildly u incrasing n (326 ) ) 248% ( % (6 P ij 880% (549 76% (302 ) 27% (057 rurns for 248% sock-flow (098 maching 9534% (as (6 h sum of aramrs suggss) nmloymn P ij u uu sock unis driing forc in sock-sock maching, 0 > 0 whras unmloymn sock and inflows of nw unmloyd nu nn u and n acancis mainly cra 0 2 ( sock- ) ( ) -flow maching Howr, whn alying Error Corrcion P ij u Modls uu un in shor run acancis u n inflow and h unmloyd form h γ0 sock-flow γ maching Error n corrcion nu nn rms for boh modls imly u P rlaily high fficincy of ij u uu un raching long M run quilibrium γ in h hiring rocss 0 2 ε n nu nn 0 > 0 Esimas of h ECT aramr wr also usd in hr-s Engl-Yoo coingraion rocdur o corrc h long-rm mulilirs simad from M saic γ rlaionshi 0 (Majsrk , ε 2728) > 0 0, 0 > 0 γ0 γ Esimad corrcion rms did no alr Mrsuls γ0 significanly u 4 εu M γ 0 2 ε Nx ar of h mirical analysis was conducd handling daa im aggrgaion roblm according o rocdur γ M γ0 2 3 u 4 ε ˆ roosd by Grgg and Prongolo (2005, ) whr h ndognous ariabl was also s as h ouflow 2 from M unmloymn γ0 Th 2 basic quaion 3 > 0u was: 4 0, ε 0 2 O a bu ε γˆ whr: 2 O O a bu ε _ ouflow from unmloymn aduring monh, unmloymn sock a h bginning Oof monh a, bu ε _ a u unmloymn inflow during monh, _ a _ ouflow ra from h sock qual b o: _ a, _ b ouflow ra from h inflow qual o: _ b _ 0 _ b 3 Analogous quaions wr simad for xaml by Cols, ( ) Smih (998, 248), Dmirija, Hazans (2005, 8), 0 Galuščák, Münich (2005, 7) ( ) 4 Moror, i was no saisically significan ( ) ) ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 0 2 ( ( 0 2 P ij u uu nu n un nn (2) M γ0 2

8 _ a 9753% (074 25% (046 22% ( % (074 ) 25% (046 ) 22% (035 ) O a bu ε P 2 ij ij 04% (326 P ij ij 04% 880% (326 (549 ) 880% 76% (549 (302 ) 76% (302 ) 38 E Gałcka-Burdziak 2 _ 27% (057 27% 248% (057 (098 ) 248% 9534% (098 (6 b) 9534% (6 ) O a bu ε O a bu ε _ Esimaion was conducd for hr _ 0 u n ua n kinds of _ ( ) b quaions: n ( ) _ P Firs ij ij u uu on rfrs P ij a o ij un random u uu maching, un whr Cobb-Douglas y funcion is assumd ( ) 5 quals: n nu nn n nu nn b 0 ( ) 0 _ 2 ( ) ( ) 2 ( ) ( ) _ b M γ 0 M 2 ε γ ε Scond quaion allows also h sock-flow 0 ( maching, whr is h ouflow robabiliy ) > 0 from h unmloymn inflow Maching chnology 0 ( ) aking ( ino ) considraion boh mhods > 0 ( ) imly M qual o: γ0 M 2 3 u ε 4 γ0 2 3 u 4 ε 0 2 γ0 γ u ( ) ( ) n u 0 2 > 0 ( ) ( ) 2 22 whil is simad as consan Random maching imlis > 0 and 0, whil sock-flow 0 > O a b 0 γ0 γ 0, and > 0 0 > 0 O u ε a bu ε u 0 > 0 Thir d quaion allows alu changs of in rfrnc o γ ˆsiuaion on h labour mark W can _ a assum ha: _ a γ0 γ u γ0 γ > 0, 0 > 0 u b b Esimaion mhod was non-linar γˆ > las 0 squars 0, including firs 0 > 0 ordr srial corrlaion in disurbanc rm in ordr o dal wih auocorrlaion > 0 (Grgg, 0, Prongolo 0 > , 998; Wlf 2003, 0 94) In quaions 0 ( XI, ( XII and XIII linar im rnd was usd in ) 0 ordr ) 0 ( o xlor oluion of h γ ( ) ) ˆ maching fficincy in quaions rrsning γˆ and (Grgg, Prongolo 2005, 999) Rsuls show ha a 5% significanc ll null hyohsis of h uni roo s in disurbanc rm should b rjcd In Tabl 3 on can ncounr alus 0 2 ( 0 ) 2( ( of h robabiliis of laing unmloymn ool ) ( 0 ) ) 2 0 ( ) 2( ( ) ( ) ) by unmloymn sock and h corrsonding inflow alus rord in squar bracks or and ar arags of samls of modls rdicions Th Tabl 3 conains also modls rdicions of man duraions of unmloymn comld and incomld and h maching funcion 0 > 0 0 > 0 lasiciis wih rsc o xognous ariabls Esimas for random maching show significan imac of acancy sock Howr, whn γ0 0 γ γ0 γ γ inroducing acancy 0 γ u inflow h uu sock cofficin dcrass sharly Esimad is osii and significan a 0% significanc ll imlying ha lss han 0% of nwly-unmloyd find a ror job offr jus afr coming ono h mark As riously said random maching imlis, > 0 and 0 0 > 0, whil sock-flow, > 0 0, 0 and > 0 Rsuls confirm a significan rol of h flows, bu do no rjc h socks imac unambiguously Esimas of hird quaion assuming γˆ sock-flow maching ˆ γ and allowing for changs in alu according o labour mark ˆ siuaion furhr confirm h imoranc of flows γ is osii wha imlis ha nwly- -unmloyd ar machd wih acancy sock Moror, h has incrasd significanly in comarison o IX column and now h unmloymn inflow has a much highr maching ra han h unmloymn sock Probabiliy of laing unmloymn sock dcrass whil moing from random scificaion hrough boh mchanisms o ur sock-flow maching Tim rnd cofficins show sligh imromn in maching fficincy of h unmloyd 6 5 rfrs o robabiliy ouflow from h unmloymn sock 6 Wha can rflc, among ohrs, changs in fficincy in funcioning of Public Emloymn Srics 0

9 a a 0 ( b ) 0 ( ) 0 _ ( ) _ Labour mark maching h cas of Poland 39 b b 0 ( ) 0 2 ( ) ( ) 0 2 ( ) ( ) 0 ( ) 0 Obaind rsuls suggs ha man duraion of unmloymn was longr han 33 wks wih ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) rlaily comarabl rsuls 0 or diffrn > 0 scificaions Diffrnc in h magniud bwn coml and incoml duraions of unmloymn 0 > 0 slls in sock-flow maching coms from 0 inroducing insananous maching robabiliy (Grgg, Prongolo 2005, 994) Calculad ( ) ( γ0 γ ) 2 ( ) ( ) lasiciis u confirm imoran rol of inflow ariabls, 0 scially > 0 γ0 γ acancy inflow in labour mark u γ0 γ maching rocsss in Poland Inroducing flow ariabls imlid incras in lasiciis wih u rsc o flow ariabls and dcras wih rsc o 0 > 0 γ sock ons Thir sums around on suggs 0 γ u 0 > consan rurns o scal 0> 0 0, or mildly incrasing ons 0 > 0 > 0 0, 0 > 0 Maching funcion lasiciis ar also usful whn aroximaing h xrnal ffcs siz > 0 0 γ0 γ γˆ u Prongolo γ0 and γ Pissarids u (200, 392) oin ou following kinds of xrnaliis: γˆ > 0 0, 0 > 0 Posii xrnaliy (hick mark ffc) occurs whn acions rformd by job skrs as γˆ finding a workr by comanis and analogously whn sarch mhods rformd by comanis γˆ as finding a job > 0 0, 0 > 0 > 0 0, by work skrs 0 Moror, h scal of his ffc may by aroximad by > 0 maching funcion lasiciis L s b h lasiciy wih rsc o unmloymn and γ ˆ wih γ rsc o acancis Thn masurs h osii xrnaliy causd by job skrs on ˆ comanis and counrar on job skrs by firms Th ngai xrnaliy (congsion ffc) ariss whn innsifid sarch acions rformd by agns on on sid of h mark rduc ransiion robabiliis for ohr agns on h sam sid work skrs wih rsc o work skrs and firms o firms Assuming sam noions: masurs h crowding ou ffc causd by h unmloyd on ohr unmloyd workrs and masurs h ngai xrnaliy causd by firms on ach ohr Conducd rsarch imlis maching lasiciy 7 in cas of h sock sock maching wih rsc o unmloymn sock o b around 07, whras wih rsc o acancy sock around 03 For h sock flow maching h arag lasiciy ough o b around 04 and 0 wih rsc o h unmloymn and acancy socks rscily, 05 and 04 wih rsc o corrsonding flows Considring hs alus on can conclud ha on Polish labour mark unmloyd job skrs caus highr osii xrnaliy on firms and smallr ngai on ach ohr han comanis do > 5 Concluding rmarks Conducd rsarch aimd a drmining imoranc of sock and inflow ariabls in maching rocsss on Polish labour mark Cofficins simas ro imoran rol of labour mark inflows in maching rocss For random modl funcion lasiciy is highr wih rsc o unmloymn sock Inroducing flows in sock-flow modl shows ha h driing forc of h maching rocss on h Polish labour mark consiss of h unmloymn sock and inflow of acancis, roing h imoranc of job craion rocss in incrasing mloymn on Polish labour mark Emirical analysis of boh random and sock-flow maching modls handling h daa im aggrgaion roblm furhr confirms imoranc of flows in labour mark maching bu i dos no rjc h socks imac unambiguously Howr, sock-flow modl imlis much biggr ransiion ra for unmloymn inflow han for h corrsonding sock 7 Taking oal ouflows from unmloymn as ndognous ariabl

10 40 E Gałcka-Burdziak Elmns of h Marko ransiion marix imly h unmloymn sock o b h mos olail on Howr h arag robabiliy of finding a job was qual o % Emloymn inflows srucur shows a dclining shar of h unmloymn o mloymn flow for h bnfi of ohr inflows Rfrncs Anolín P (994), nmloymn flows and acancis in Sain, Working Pars, EC , Insiuo alnciano d Insigacions Económicas, alncia Brman E (997), Hl wand, job ndd: simas of a maching funcion from mloymn sric daa, Journal of Labor Economics, 5(), Blanchard OJ, Diamond P (989), Th aggrga maching funcion, NBER Working Par, 375, Washinghon Blanchard OJ, Diamond P (990), Ranking, unmloymn duraion, and wags, NBER Working Par, 3387, Washingon Blanchard OJ, Diamond P (994), Ranking, unmloymn duraion, and wags, Riw of Economic Sudis, 6, Burs G (977), Equilibrium disribuions of sals and adrising rics, Riw of Economic Sudis, 44, Cols MG (999), Turnor xrnaliis wih marklac rading, Inrnaional Economic Riw, 40(4), Nombr Cols MG, Muhoo A (998), Sragic bargaining and comii bidding in a dynamic mark quilibrium, Riw of Economic Sudis, 65(2), Cols MG, Prongolo B (2008), A s bwn sock-flow maching and h random maching funcion aroach, Inrnaional Economic Riw, 49(4), Nombr Cols MG, Smih E (998), Marklac and maching, Inrnaional Economic Riw, 39(), Diamond P (982), Aggrga dmand managmn in sarch quilibrium, Journal of Poliical Economy, 90(5), Dmirija J, Hazans M (2005), A sock-flow maching aroach o aluaion of ublic raining rogram in a high unmloymn nironmn, EPEE Working Par, 04-4R, Paris Ebrahimy E, Shimr R (200), Sock flow maching, Journal of Economic Thory, 45(4), Galuščák K, Münich D (2005), Srucural and cyclical unmloymn: wha can w dri from h maching funcion?, Czch Naional Bank Working Par Sris, 2, Pragu Gałcka E (2007), Zasosowani funkcji doasowań do analizy fkywności rynku racy, Wiadomości Saysyczn, 0, 4352 Gałcka E (2008), Doasowania odażowj i oyowj srony rynku racy Analiza na rzykładzi Polski w laach , unublishd manuscri, nirsiy of Lodz, Lodz Gałcka-Burdziak E (200), Modl łącznia uczsników rynku racy alikacja funkcji doasowań dla olskigo rynku racy, Ekonomisa, 3, Grgg P, Prongolo B (2005), Sock flow maching and h rformanc of h labor mark, Euroan Economic Riw, 49, Hall RE (979), A hory of h naural unmloymn ra and h duraion of mloymn, Journal of Monary Economics, 5, 5369

11 Labour mark maching h cas of Poland 4 Kubiak P (2005), Efky uczsnicwa bzrobonych w akywnych rogramach rynku racy w Polsc, Prac dokorski z zakrsu konomii i zarządzania, Wydawnicwo niwrsyu Łódzkigo, Łódź Kucharski L (2002), Przływy siły roboczj w Polsc w laach dziwięćdzisiąych, Kadra Ekonomii niwrsyu Łódzkigo, Łódź Kucharski L, Tokarski T (2003), Drminany odływów z bzrobocia do zarudninia w Polsc, Gosodarka Narodowa, 78, 4763 Lagos R (2000), An alrnai aroach o sarch fricions, Journal of Poliical Economy, 08(5), Lang K (99), Prsisn wag disrsion and inolunary unmloymn, Th Quarrly Journal of Economics, Fbruary, 8202 Majsrk M (2008), Wilowymiarowa analiza koingracyjna w konomii, Wydawnicwo niwrsyu Łódzkigo, Łódź Mongomry JD (99), Equilibrium wag disrsion and inrindusry wag diffrnials, Th Quarrly Journal of Economics, Fbruary, 6379 Prongolo B, Pissarids CA (200), Looking ino h black box: a sury of h maching funcion, Journal of Economic Liraur, XXXIX, Pissarids CA (979), Job machings wih sa mloymn agncis and random sarch, Th Economic Journal, 89, Pissarids CA (986), nmloymn and acancis in Briain, Economic Policy, Ocobr, Pissarids CA (2000), Equilibrium unmloymn hory 2 nd diion, Th Massachuss Insiu of Tchnology, Cambridg Roszkowska S (2009), Aggrga maching funcion Th cas of Poland, Cnral Euroan Journal of Economic Modlling and Economrics, (2), 5777 Sasiak J, Tokarski T (995), Wykorzysani funkcji doasowań do analizy odływów z bzrobocia w Polsc, Gosodarka Narodowa, 5, 2429 Taylor CR (995), Th long sid of h mark and h shor sid of h sick: bargaining owr and ric formaion in buyrs, sllrs, and balancd marks, Th Quarrly Journal of Economics, Augus, Tokarski T (2005), Saysyczna analiza rgionago zróżnicowania wydajności racy, zarudninia i bzrobocia w Polsc, Wydawnicwo Polskigo Towarzyswa Ekonomiczngo, Warszawa Wlf A (2003), Ekonomria Mody i ich zasosowani, Polski Wydawnicwo Ekonomiczn, Warszawa

12 42 E Gałcka-Burdziak Andix Figur Bridg cur on Polish labour mark, (in housands) acancy sock horical Bridg cur nmloymn sock No: rgisrd unmloymn , daa sasonally adjusd Figur 2 Ouflow from unmloymn (lf axis), inflow of h unmloyd (lf axis) and unmloymn sock (righ axis) in Poland, (in housands) Ouflow Inflow Sock No: rgisrd unmloymn , daa sasonally adjusd

13 Labour mark maching h cas of Poland 43 Figur 3 acancy sock and inflow (lf axis) and ouflow from unmloymn (righ axis) in Poland, (in housands) Sock Inflow Ouflow No: rgisrd unmloymn , daa sasonally adjusd Figur 4 Emloymn inflows srucur in Poland, % Q-Q2 200Q3-Q4 2003Q-Q2 2004Q3-Q4 2006Q-Q2 2007Q3-Q4 2009Q-Q2 E NE EE No: E flow from unmloymn o mloymn, NE flow from non-aciiy o mloymn, EE flow from mloymn o mloymn Sourc: Labour Forc Sury, micro daa

14 44 E Gałcka-Burdziak Tabl Esimas for random and sock-flow maching modls for Polish labour mark, Indndn ariabl/ saisics Paramrs simas (-sudn saisics) I II III I I II 06 - (637) (689) 0689 (89) (94) 0266 (99) u 047 (2538) 060 (02) 0347 (955) 0290 (792) 0379 (64) 0,00 (480) 0208 (35) 0434 (954) d - d (40) 0200 (490) 0466 (292) d u d 0493 (345) ρ 0297 (359) 0542 (78) ECT aramr R 2 (adj R 2 ) Engl-Grangr saisics * -alu (-793) (-746) No: daa sasonally adjusd, dndn ariabl: ouflows from unmloymn, ρ rsns h AR() cofficin in rror rm * ADF s for rsiduals Sourc: rgisrd unmloymn , BIEC

15 Labour mark maching h cas of Poland 45 Tabl 2 Esimas for random and sock-flow im aggrgad maching modls for Polish labour mark, Indndn ariabl/ saisics Paramrs simas (-sudn saisics) III IX X XI XII XIII (-462) (2558) 2 u (-505) (402) (44) (67) γ 0 γ ρ R 2 (adj R 2 ) Engl-Grangr saisics * -alu (040) (073) (-483) (64) (-887) (839) (-322) (348) 070 (00) (-06) 0053 (228) 047 (262) (87) 0796 (200) (568) (86) (833) (-372) (320) (624) No: daa sasonally adjusd, dndn ariabl: ouflows from unmloymn, ρ rsns h AR() cofficin in rror rm *ADF s for rsiduals Sourc: rgisrd unmloymn , BIEC

16 46 E Gałcka-Burdziak Tabl 3 Ouflow robabiliy from h unmloymn sock and inflow, man unmloymn duraion, maching funcion lasiciis for IIIXIII simas Indndn ariabl/ saisics Paramrs simas (-sudn saisics) III IX X XI XII XIII u (67) (87) 0259 Man duraion: comld incomld Elasiciis: u Sum Sourc: Tabl 2