How To Calculate A Voip Subscriber Count

Transcription

1 Press contact: Kevin Mitchell, Principal Analyst, , Sales contact: Larry Howard, Vice President, , Annual Market Size and Forecasts: North America Table of Contents Methodology (pg. 4) Service categories and definitions Subscriber category and definition What we count Regions Service overlaps and clarifications Infonetics Research supply-side forecast process: reality-based service forecasting Residential/SOHO hosted VoIP subscriber forecasting VoIP service forecasting Telecom/datacom market fundamental drivers (pg. 9) North American service provider market factors Analysis, factors, and assumptions (pg. 11) Service updates since last delivery VoIP services fundamental drivers North America residential/soho VoIP subscriber forecast Fundamental drivers Market size and forecasts Service providers and market share VoIP services market size and forecasts VoIP services type analysis Demand-side study data (pg. 20) October 25, 2005 Page 1

2 Table of Contents North America market size and forecasts (pg. 21) Hosted VoIP services, North America revenue Residential/SOHO Business Wholesale Managed IP PBX services, North America revenue Total VoIP services, North America revenue North America Total VoIP Service Revenue North America Total VoIP Service Revenue: Hosted VoIP vs Managed IP PBX North America Business Hosted VoIP vs Managed IP PBX Service Revenue North America Hosted VoIP Service Revenue by Type US market size and forecasts (pg. 24) Hosted VoIP services, US revenue Residential/SOHO Business Wholesale Managed IP PBX services, US revenue Total VoIP services, US revenue US Total VoIP Service Revenue US Total VoIP Service Revenue: Hosted VoIP vs Managed IP PBX US Business Hosted VoIP vs Managed IP PBX Service Revenue US Hosted VoIP Service Revenue by Type Canada market size and forecasts (pg. 27) Hosted VoIP services, Canada revenue Residential/SOHO Business Wholesale Managed IP PBX services, Canada revenue Total VoIP services, Canada revenue October 25, 2005 Page 2

3 Table of Contents Canada Total VoIP Service Revenue Canada Total VoIP Service Revenue: Hosted VoIP vs Managed IP PBX Canada Business Hosted VoIP vs Managed IP PBX Service Revenue Canada Hosted VoIP Service Revenue by Type North America residential/soho VoIP subscriber forecast (pg. 30) Residential/SOHO VoIP subscribers North America Residential/SOHO VoIP Subscribers North America residential/soho VoIP subscriber market share (pg. 31) Residential/SOHO VoIP subscribers North America Residential/SOHO VoIP Subscriber Market Share October 25, 2005 Page 3

4 Service Categories and Definitions Hosted VoIP: VoIP services derived from network-based equipment located in the service provider network; call control and service logic functions are owned and operated by the service provider, including any one-time professional services such as installation, network assessment, or project management; does not include sale of CPE, including IADs, gateways, and IP phones; revenues are monthly fees and feature or usage costs and excludes pure peer-to-peer messenger based services and free applications Residential/SOHO: voice over broadband or hosted VoIP services sold to residential market or to small offices/home offices (up to 2 lines per site) Business: includes IP-enabled legacy Centrex, hosted VoIP/IP Centrex services, and IP trunking services for legacy or IP PBXs sold to SMB, government, education, and large enterprises, including the retail sales of wholesale services; does not include organizations deploying VoIP over their own WAN and LAN; for sites greater than 2 lines Wholesale: hosted offerings sold to VARs, SIs, or other service providers; does not include other wholesale services like origination, termination, operator services, local access, etc. Managed IP PBX: monthly recurring management fee for a range of management services (remote management, troubleshooting, full management, etc.) dealing with IP PBX, gateways, and IP phones, including any one-time professional services such as installation, network assessment, or project management; does not include bandwidth, connectivity, other IP services; does not include sale of IP PBX Subscriber Category and Definition Residential/SOHO VoIP: residential and small office/home office subscribers to hosted VoIP services (up to 2 lines per site); only the subscribers of the original VoIP provider are counted (i.e., we do not double count wholesale lines); excludes pure peer-to-peer messenger based services and free applications What We Count In this service, we report manufacturers' revenue recognized during the calendar year. VoIP services revenue reported is in US$ for the voice over IP services provided by service providers as defined above Regions North America: US and Canada Service Overlaps and Clarifications Some of the categories in this service are also counted in other services, as defined below: Service Category Service Provider Next Gen Voice Equipment Residential/SOHO VoIP subscriber forecast October 25, 2005 Page 4

5 Infonetics Research Supply-Side Forecast Process: Reality-Based Service Forecasting Our 5-step forecasting process, developed and refined over the last 15 years, is firmly grounded in reality. Our forecasts are built from and tied to actual data, and we update actuals and forecasts annually. Development and creation of forecasts is a group process; a team of market and research experts develops and reviews all forecasts. We draw from our in-depth demand-side research, supply-side research, and service, product, and technology knowledge to provide accurate, reliable forecasts grounded in reality, reflecting data from all sides of the market. The process is described below. 1. Develop Categories One of the most important steps in the forecasting process is proper development of categories; clear category definitions are key to gathering good actuals because they eliminate overlaps between categories, clearly showing what's in and what isn't. Category definitions must be simple, and have measurable distinction. 2. Gather Actuals We work closely with service providers to gather and estimate actual data using the following methods: Publicly available financial data Service provider interviews with key strategic and technical decision-makers Financial community Direct contact with financial community Infonetics Research demand-side data on service provider and end-user organization service and technology use and plans 3. Forecast Starting with the most recent actuals, we develop forecasts using an analyst estimate of the change in revenue by region. Our forecasts start with expert opinion (also known as the Delphi Survey process), informed by a combination of the following factors: General factors: Historical data for the category we are forecasting (including seasonal and cyclical trends) Growth trends from parallel categories in other markets Macro-economic factors Announced and unannounced contracts with near-term significance Emergence of disruptive technologies Regulatory issues Discussions with key members of the financial community October 25, 2005 Page 5

6 Demand-side factors based on our research: Technology adoption rates Projected spending increases Preferences for service types Technology preferences Plans for outsourcing Service provider revenue Growth in subscriber base for a given service Discussions with customers Supply-side factors: New standards New technologies Emerging companies Product/service pricing factors Service provider capex Mergers & acquisitions in the service provider arena 4. Validate & Explain Forecast We validate and cross-check service forecasts by creating fundamental demand models. When validating a forecast, we: Validate the forecast by checking against a model based on our demand side data (including number of carriers offering the service, average spending per company/per year, planned investments, and technology preferences, etc.) Cross-check against our relevant market size, share, and forecast reports Cross-check against our relevant subscriber forecasts For service provider forecasts, we cross-check using our Capex Analysis reports for North America, Europe, and Asia Pacific In addition, we spend hundreds of hours annually meeting with service providers, network product manufacturers, chip and component manufacturers, and channels to understand their offerings, product roadmaps, and the direction of the market, giving us a strong understanding of products and technology trends Forecast assumptions and our thinking behind our forecasts are laid out in the Analysis, Factors & Assumptions sheet; in particular see sections labeled "Fundamental Drivers." 5. Report on Accuracy On an annual basis we compare our previous report forecasts with the updated forecast to help customers track our performance, and to help us further refine our forecasts. We report when the updated forecasts deviate from the previous report, and explain our adjustments. October 25, 2005 Page 6

7 Residential/SOHO Hosted VoIP Subscriber Forecasting Taking all public information and forecast factors into account together with our knowledge of the strategies, product plans, and performance of carriers, we forecast subscribers for North America as defined above in Subscriber Category and Definitions. Forecast drivers are explained on the Analysis, Factors, & Assumptions sheet; we cross-check against data from our quarterly Broadband Modems, Routers, and Gateways and DSL Aggregation services, and against our Cable Broadband, DSL subscriber, and PON subscriber forecasts Gather actual 2004 North American residential/soho VoIP subscribers from public sources and estimate remainder of market 2004, which is about 5% of the 2004 total Estimate future annual growth rates for residential/soho VoIP subscribers and cable and DSL subscriber penetration rates based on fundamental drivers (PON, DSL, and cable broadband subscribers are forecasted in other services) Compare to current access line size as published in our biannual Service Provider Capex Analysis, North America VoIP Service Forecasting Taking all public information and forecast factors into account together with our knowledge of the strategies, product plans, and performance of carriers, and adoption by small, medium, and large organizations in North America, we forecast by service category as defined above in Service Categories and Definitions. We use the latest release of our Capex Analysis service for North America, which tracks service provider revenues over time; these services track pubic wireline and wireless carriers only, excluding non-public, state-owned, and smaller carriers; this service tracks carriers representing about 95% of carrier revenue in North America. We use the VoIP subscriber figures and forecasts in our quarterly Service Provider Next Gen Voice Equipment report Forecast drivers are explained on the Analysis, Factors, & Assumptions sheet; we use services information gathered for our study, Service Provider Plans for Next Gen Voice: North America, Europe, and Asia Pacific, 2005 and User Plans for IP Voice: North America 2005 Estimate US/Canada split based on US and Canadian service provider revenues using data from our Service Provider Capex, North America service; US revenue is between 90.4% % Our forecast for residential/soho hosted service revenue forecast is based on the following data points and assumptions: It starts with our residential/soho VoIP subscriber forecast and each year we assume that existing subscribers pay the full year ARPU in service revenue We assume that new subscribers ramp up quarter-on-quarter (i.e., there are more new subscribers in 2Q compared to 1Q, more in 3Q compared to 2Q, more in 4Q compared to 3Q), giving consistent ramp-up in new subscribers; this translates as 18% of new subscribers for each year in 1Q, 22% in 2Q, 28% in 3Q and 32% in 4Q; we also assume 15% churn on previous year subscribers, affecting annual revenue contributions New subscribers do not pay the full year's average ARPU; we assume they pay only a proportion of that, as follows: 1Q new subscribers pay for 11 months, assuming they subscribe mid-way through the quarter (11 x monthly ARPU); 2Q new subs pay for 8 months, 3Q subs pay for 5 months and 4Q subs pay for just 2 months We assume a monthly ARPU of around $39 in CY04, dropping CY05-06 due to competition, starting to rise in CY07 to $39.5 in CY09 due to higher penetration of value-add items and features October 25, 2005 Page 7

8 Our forecast for business and wholesale hosted services and managed IP PBX services is based on a percentage of current service provider revenue and a projected growth rate based on end-user adoption Updated since 4/29/05 delivery October 25, 2005 Page 8