Nigel Nunoo, CFA, FSA, MAAA

Transcription

1 PENSION RISK TRANSFER Nigel Nunoo, CFA, FSA, MAAA

2 Agenda Pension Risk Transfer (PRT) Business Opportunity Background & Context Market Opportunity UK versus US PRT Products Pension Risk Reduction Path & Product Solutions Buy-In versus Buy-Out Longevity (Re)Insurance Longevity Reinsurance Pricing Platform Pricing Framework & Financial Modeling Fully Integrated Stochastic Modeling 2

3 Background & Context Evolution of Employee Benefits. Retirement Programs and Pension Laws Impact of 2008 Financial Crisis Business Case for Transacting Corporate Finance Case for Transacting Why Now? UK vs US Markets

4 UK Market Explosion The UK Pension Risk Transfer market is the most vibrant in the world with: Over 10 billion per year in transaction volume (more than five times the US); and A very broad range of pension risk transfer products and solutions available to plan sponsors The fastest growing products over the last several years have been direct Longevity Insurance Transactions UK Cumulative Transaction Volume Source: Lane Clark & Peacock LLP 4

5 UK Techniques Migrate to the US Buy-In Longevity Insurance PRT techniques Both UK techniques and attitudes toward risk are making their way to US Prudential is working with leading plan sponsors in the US to address pension risk Many US plans have reduced public equity targets and LDI is gaining in popularity Buy-Out and Buy-In solutions are also gaining interest and a few sophisticated plan sponsors are preparing to transact Source: Portfolio Protected Buy In (Commingled) presentation to Business Team_

6 Risk Reduction Path & Product Solutions Pension Risk Reduction Path Investment Risk Longevity Risk Investment & Longevity Risks All Risks Liability-Driven Investment (LDI) Longevity Insurance Buy-In Buy-Out

7 Prudential s Product Platform Longevity Reinsurance Portfolio Protected Buy-In Plan Portfolio Protected Buy-Out Traditional Buy-Out Ceding Insurer Net Annuity Payments The Prudential Insurance Company of America Prudential s Longevity Reinsurance Source: Pru ALM presentation_

8 Buy-In vs Buy-Out Buy-In Buy-Out General Account Guarantee Separate Account Grp Annuity Contract Premium Benefit Payments Qualified DB Trust Benefit Payments General Account Guarantee Separate Account Grp Annuity Contract Premium Plan Sponsor Prudential Pension Plan Prudential Pension Plan Buy-In Ideal for Under-Funded Plans Group Annuity held as a Plan Asset Buy-Out Ideal for Over-Funded Plans Group Annuity Settles the Liability Minimizes i i Accounting & Funding Volatility Completely l Eliminates i Volatility Prudential takes all Asset & Longevity Risk Prudential takes all Asset & Longevity Risk Revocable & Convertible to Buy-Out Sponsor Has Double-Barreled Credit Protection No Settlement Accounting Irrevocable Participants Has Double-Barreled Credit Protection Settlement Accounting triggered Source: Pension Buy-In Solutions presentation_

9 Longevity Reinsurance Illustrative Structure In a Longevity Reinsurance Agreement, the parties agree to a two-way exchange of payments The Ceding Insurer pays fixed benefits plus reinsurance fees determined at contract inception The Reinsurer (Prudential) pays actual benefits that are owed to plan participants and their beneficiaries Primary risks assumed by Prudential are that: Covered persons live longer than expected and Greater number of covered persons are married at time of death than expected Spouses at the time of death are younger than expected Other risks to profitability (e.g. interest rate, FX and counterparty) are contingent upon unfavorable longevity emergence Pension Plan Actual Benefits Premium Counterparty (or Insurer) Reinsured Benefits Fixed Benefits + Reinsurance Fee Prudential Ceding Insurer (Reinsurer) Prudential s Collateral Trust Counterparty s Collateral Trust Source: Pru ALM presentation_

10 Longevity Reinsurance Pricing Framework Financial Foundation Principles Based Approach Mortality Studies Plan s Experience Pension Population Experience (Post Code Models) Mortality Improvement Assumptions Demographic Assumptions Asset Liability Management Framework Investment & Hedging Instruments Financial Modeling Fully Integrated Stochastic Modeling Tail Analysis Financial i Results Deal Structuring & Negotiation 10

11 Stochastic Modeling of Longevity Risk 7 6 Projected Benefit Payments Expected Payments Risk Profile - PV of Actual Benefits (1000 stochastic trials) Benefit Pay yments Participants Live Longer Frequency PV Actual > PV Fixed + Fees Participants Live Shorter Year mm Source: Pru ALM presentation_