Not Your Father s Potash Oligopoly Structural Shift Points to Lower EPS & P/E Multiples, Spurs Target Price Cuts

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1 July 30, 2013 The NBF Daily Bulletin Industry Comment Agriculture Not Your Father s Potash Oligopoly Structural Shift Points to Lower EPS & P/E Multiples, Spurs Target Price Cuts Industry Rating (Agriculture): Overweight (NBF Economics & Strategy Group) Robert B. Winslow, CFA - (416) [email protected] Associate: Andrew Jacklin - (416) [email protected] The Looming End to the Potash Super Cycle Part II, The Realization? OAO Uralkali (URKA-LN, NR) is withdrawing from the Belarusian Potash Co (BPC) marketing group and cutting prices we expect Canpotex to follow suit. Uralkali announced a withdrawal from BPC due to a deadlock on export agreements with BPC partner, Belaruskali. BPC controls ~43% of global potash exports and together with Canpotex, control ~70% of global potash trade. This shift to a volume-before-price strategy runs counter to the models of other top potash producers and arguably signals a structural change in the industry. Last September we suggested the days of the Potash Super Cycle were near an end but we are somewhat surprised at Uralkali s abrupt decision today. Whether this is an attempt to pre-empt a more firm commitment from BHP Billiton to enter the potash market or frustration with the declining power of the global potash oligopoly, we may never know. Regardless, we expect a competitive response from Canpotex that includes a strategy of lower prices and higher output whether the new oligopoly holds, investors are unlikely to view it the same again. When enough is enough, and how to keep new entrants at bay. In our view high prices have led to demand destruction in key potash markets India and China in recent years, causing flat global demand since 2004, and piquing the interest of potential new entrant BHP. These may have been factors in Uralkali s new strategic direction. Uralkali announced intentions to ramp production to 13 mln tonnes in 2014 from 10.5 mln tonnes this year to capitalize on a delivered cost advantage to China, an importer of ~20% of global production. Uralkali believes potash prices could fall below $300/tonne vs. the current China contract of ~$400/tonne. However, since Uralkali is among the world s low-cost producers (claiming ~$60/tonne COGS vs. ~$100-$125/tonne for lower-cost Canpotex members), Uralkali s earnings downside is apt to be partially insulated from the industry shift to more competitive pricing. Arguably the implications of materially lower KCl prices are further reaching; we view them as modestly bearish for the grain price complex and fertilizer equities. Presuming the global potash oligopoly is broken and potash prices are indeed to be more market driven (i.e., lower), we would expect a significant portion of currently unmet Indian and Chinese demand to be more adequately filled in the years ahead. As per Ex. 1, there is considerable potential for India and China to raise potash imports, boosting fertilizer application rates closer to the U.S. benchmark, which should help spur measurable yield improvement in these two key grain-producing giants (Ex. 2). However, while the prospect of significant global grain production is a positive for mankind, in so far as food price upside is apt to be tempered in the coming years (barring unforeseen negative supply shocks), this is also apt to put downward pressure on product prices and margins across the entire ag supply chain, including nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers, though the downside risk is clearly more significant for the potash sector. Consistent with our prior view, we argue premium P/E potash multiples will dissipate as the potash super cycle fades; cutting POT and AGU targets. We update PotashCorp and Agrium models not only with lower assumed KCl prices into F14 (as well as into F15 and beyond in our DCFs), but also with higher assumed KCl production tonnes, lower COGS/tonne and higher sustaining capex, presuming mines will be run at much higher utilization rates. [This is a change to recent policies that we contend hurt demand with artificially high oligopoly pricing (Ex. 3). Given the significant potash supply slack projected through 2017, we expect at least two to three years before a measure of pricing power returns to the producers (Ex. 4).] We also trim N & P fertilizer prices and Agrium s Retail products prices, presuming grain prices will have less near-term upside (discussed earlier). With this background we reduce our estimates (Ex. 6 & 10) and DCF valuations, which coupled with lower assumed P/E multiples, cut our target prices: POT-N falls to $33.50 from $39.00 (still Sector Perform) while AGU-N is trimmed to $83.00 from $84.50 (still Underperform). See Ex. 7 & 11.

2 Page 2 Exhibit 1: We Believe there Is Considerable Unmet Potash Demand in China & India Lower Potash Prices Should Help to Correct this Imbalance, Raise Yields Actual Consumption Projected Unmet Demand Potash (mln tonnes) China India Source: Uralkali, PotashCorp, NBF Exhibit 2: China & India Are Already Major Grain Growers, So Greater KCl Use Could Spur Bumper Global Harvests, Tempering Grain Price Upside in the Years Ahead Rice India China Rest Of World 47% 47% 47% % Global Production 30% 30% 30% 23% 22% 23% 2011/ / /2014F Wheat India China Rest Of World 71% 67% 69% % Global Production 12% 17% 18% 17% 14% 13% Source: USDA, NBF 2011/ / /2014F

3 Page 3 Exhibit 3: Global Potash Capacity Utilization Has Been Falling, We Argue Due to High Prices and Demand Destruction; This Is Apt to Change with Materially Lower Prices KCl Price (USD/tonne, FOB Vancouver) $700 $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 $0 $113 $113 $125 Average Potash Price Global Capacity Utilization $630 $570 $435 $462 $332 $200 $158 $ % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% Capacity Utilization (% of Nameplate Capacity) Source: World Bank, PCS, IFDC, Bloomberg, NBF Exhibit 4: Higher-probability (i.e., Mostly Brownfield) Potash Supply Is Expected to Post an ~4% CAGR through 2017, Adding ~14 Mln Tonnes of Annual Effective Capacity Source: PCS (sourcing Fertecon, CRU, Public filings; last updated June 4,2013)

4 Page 4 Exhibit 5: Over the Last Two Grain Price Cycles Potash Equities Have Traded at Premium P/Es while Nitrogen Equities Have Generally Traded at the Lowest P/Es Average Multiples for the Period 05/30/08 to 07/30/13 15x 14.5x P/E on Next Annual Consensus Estimates 10x 5x 12.0x 10.7x 9.5x 9.3x 0x IPI POT-N MOS CF AGU-N Source: Bloomberg, NBF PotashCorp (POT-N, US$33.50 Target, Sector Perform) Exhibit 6: Reducing PCS Estimates F13E F14E Old New % Change Old New % Change Net Sales (mln) $7,602 $7, % $8,142 $8, % Gross Margin (%) 44.9% 44.9% 0.1% 43.7% 42.0% -4.0% EBITDA (adj.) (mln) $3,885 $3, % $4,191 $3, % EBITDA Margin (%) 51.1% 50.5% -1.1% 51.5% 48.2% -6.3% EPS (adj.) (f.d.) $2.55 $ % $2.90 $ % Exhibit 7: Reduced Longer-term Fertilizer Prices and Margins Plus a Lower Cyclic P/E Multiple Cuts Our POT-N Target Price to US$33.50 from US$39.00; Cyclically We Contend POT-N Could Trade Below US$25.00 (US$) Methodology Valuation Weighting Target New: 1) 10-year ~9.0% WACC $ % $ ) P/E on F14E EPS 9.50x $ 2.60 $ % $9.87 Target valuation 100% $33.44 Prior: 1) 10-year ~9.0% WACC $ % $ ) P/E on F14E EPS 10.5x $2.90 $ % $9.13 Target valuation 100% $39.02

5 Page 5 Exhibit 8: NBF s Forecast Drivers for PotashCorp PCS Segment Assumptions F08 F09 F10 F11 F12 F13E F14E Potash (KCl) Sales Volume tonnes (000s) 8,547 2,988 8,644 9,046 7,230 9,500 11,500 Global Demand (000 tonnes) 53,850 31,790 54,500 55,000 51,000 58,000 62,000 Implied Market Share 15.9% 9.4% 15.9% 16.4% 14.2% 16.4% 18.5% Average Selling Price/tonne (netback) $478 $433 $315 $416 $421 $340 $290 COGS/Tonne (Total) $97 $176 $109 $115 $160 $128 $115 Phosphate Sales Volume tonnes, end product basis (000s) 3,322 3,055 3,632 3,854 3,643 3,808 4,025 Average Selling Price/tonne end product (Net) $833 $490 $455 $592 $568 $525 $540 COGS/Tonne (Total) end product $514 $490 $374 $431 $449 $431 $436 Nitrogen Sales Volume, end product basis (000s) 5,042 4,967 5,205 5,041 4,807 5,754 5,940 Average Selling Price/tonne end product (Net) $469 $239 $309 $427 $433 $410 $419 COGS/Tonne (Total) end product $330 $201 $215 $249 $268 $237 $264 Exhibit 9: Sensitivity Analysis for PCS EPS and Potential POT-N Share Price (Shaded Area Reflects Our Current Estimates) 2014 KCl Price (minegate, /tonne) (Add ~$40/tonne to get Vancouver benchmark price) $ 2.60 $200 $225 $250 $275 $290 $325 $350 9,000 $1.62 $1.80 $1.98 $2.16 $2.27 $2.52 $ KCl 9,500 $1.65 $1.84 $2.03 $2.22 $2.33 $2.60 $2.79 Volume 10,000 $1.68 $1.88 $2.08 $2.28 $2.40 $2.68 $2.88 (000 tonne) 10,500 $1.71 $1.92 $2.13 $2.34 $2.46 $2.76 $ ,000 $1.74 $1.96 $2.18 $2.40 $2.53 $2.84 $ ,500 $1.77 $2.00 $2.23 $2.46 $2.60 $2.92 $ ,000 $1.80 $2.04 $2.28 $2.52 $2.66 $3.00 $ ,500 $1.83 $2.08 $2.33 $2.58 $2.73 $3.08 $ ,000 $1.86 $2.12 $2.38 $2.64 $2.80 $3.16 $3.42 Potential Share Price 2014 KCl Price (minegate, /tonne) (Add ~$40/tonne to get Vancouver benchmark price) $200 $225 $250 $275 $290 $325 $ x $11.34 $12.59 $13.85 $15.11 $15.86 $17.62 $18.87 F14E P/E 8.0x $13.20 $14.72 $16.23 $17.75 $18.66 $20.78 $ x $15.13 $16.92 $18.71 $20.51 $21.58 $24.10 $ x $17.11 $19.21 $21.30 $23.39 $24.65 $27.58 $ x $19.16 $21.57 $23.98 $26.40 $27.84 $31.22 $ x $21.27 $24.02 $26.77 $29.52 $31.17 $35.02 $ x $23.44 $26.55 $29.66 $32.76 $34.63 $38.98 $ x $25.67 $29.15 $32.64 $36.13 $38.22 $43.11 $46.60

6 Page 6 Agrium Inc. (AGU-N, US$83.00 Target, Underperform) Exhibit 10: Reducing Agrium Estimates F13E F14E Old New % Change Old New % Change Net Sales (mln) $17,188 $17, % $18,305 $18, % Retail (mln) $12,271 $12, % $13,314 $13, % Wholesale (mln) $3,568 $3, % $3,466 $3, % Other (mln) $1,349 $1, % $1,525 $1, % Gross Margin (%) 25.4% 25.3% -0.1% 24.3% 24.3% -0.3% EBITDA (adj.) (mln) $2,692 $2, % $2,876 $2, % EBITDA Margin (%) 15.7% 15.6% -0.1% 15.7% 15.4% -2.0% EPS (adj.) (f.d.) $9.42 $ % $9.25 $ % Exhibit 11: Reduced Longer-term Potash Price and Margin Expectations for Agrium Trims Our AGU-N Target Price to US$83.00 from US$84.50; Cyclically We Submit AGU Could Trade Below US$70.00 (US$) Methodology Valuation Weighting Target New: 1) 10-year ~9.00% WACC $ % $ ) P/E on F14E EPS 7.75x $8.90 $ % $34.48 Target valuation 100% $83.07 Prior: 1) 10-year ~9.00% WACC $ % $ ) P/E on F14E EPS 8.0x $9.25 $ % $44.41 Target valuation 100% $84.63 Exhibit 12: NBF s Forecast Drivers for Agrium Agrium Segment Assumptions F09 F10 F11 F12 F13E F14E F09-F12 average Retail Sales (000) $6,164 $6,969 $10,316 $11,479 $12,263 $13,293 Gross Margin % 19.2% 22.3% 22.2% 21.6% 21.1% 20.9% 21.3% Wholesale Nitrogen Sales Volume tonnes, all products (000) 3,766 3,918 4,059 4,285 4,339 4,450 Average Selling Price/tonne (net) $331 $350 $506 $536 $500 $468 $431 COGS/tonne (all products) $222 $235 $265 $257 $268 $284 Gross Margin % 33.0% 32.9% 47.5% 52.0% 46.3% 39.3% 41.4% Phosphate Sales Volume tonnes, all products (000) 1,004 1,041 1,127 1,095 1,097 1,135 Average Selling Price/tonne (net) $434 $538 $792 $728 $675 $642 $623 COGS/tonne (all products) $396 $437 $473 $546 $538 $530 Gross Margin % 8.7% 18.8% 40.3% 24.9% 20.3% 17.5% 23.2% Potash (KCl) Sales Volume tonnes (000) 763 1,868 1,765 1,292 1,768 1,875 Global Demand (000 tonnes) 31,790 54,500 55,000 51,000 58,000 62,000 Implied Market Share 2.4% 3.4% 3.2% 2.5% 3.0% 3.0% Average Selling Price/tonne (net) $436 $350 $458 $478 $379 $332 $430 COGS/tonne (all products) $208 $151 $168 $213 $171 $162 Gross Margin % 52.3% 56.7% 63.3% 55.4% 54.8% 51.1% 56.9% Advanced Technologies Sales (000) $304 $392 $510 $578 $590 $609 Gross Margin % 17.8% 21.7% 22.5% 20.4% 19.1% 20.0% 20.6%

7 Page 7 Exhibit 13: Given the Robust Correlation with Grain Prices there Is Still Near-term Risk to Further Downside for Both POT-N and AGU-N in H2/F13 If/As Lower New Crop Prices Are Realized Grain Price Index* v. POT-US and AGU-US % correlation between the Grain Price Index and Agrium as well as PotashCorp (PCS) Grain Index (LHS) Agrium PCS Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 * Grain Price Index is equal-weight corn, wheat and soybean prices. May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Source: Bloomberg, Thomson ONE, NBF DISCLOSURES: Ratings And What They Mean: PRIMARY STOCK RATING: NBF has a three-tiered rating system that is relative to the coverage universe of the particular analyst. Here is a brief description of each: Outperform The stock is expected to outperform the analyst s coverage universe over the next 12 months; Sector Perform The stock is projected to perform in line with the sector over the next 12 months; Underperform The stock is expected to underperform the sector over the next 12 months. SECONDARY STOCK RATING: Under Review Our analyst has withdrawn the rating because of insufficient information and is awaiting more information and/or clarification; Tender Our analyst is recommending that investors tender to a specific offering for the company s stock; Restricted Because of ongoing investment banking transactions or because of other circumstances, NBF policy and/or laws or regulations preclude our analyst from rating a company s stock. INDUSTRY RATING: NBF has an Industry Weighting system that reflects the view of our Economics & Strategy Group, using its sector rotation strategy. The three tiered system rates industries as Overweight, Market Weight and Underweight, depending on the sector s projected performance against broader market averages over the next 12 months. RISK RATING: NBF utilizes a four-tiered risk rating system, Low, Average, Above Average and Speculative. The system attempts to evaluate risk against the overall market. In addition to sector-specific criteria, analysts also utilize quantitative and qualitative criteria in choosing a rating. The criteria include predictability of financial results, share price volatility, credit ratings, share liquidity and balance sheet quality. General National Bank Financial (NBF) is an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of National Bank of Canada. National Bank of Canada is a public company listed on Canadian stock exchanges. The particulars contained herein were obtained from sources which we believe to be reliable but are not guaranteed by us and may be incomplete. The opinions expressed are based upon our analysis and interpretation of these particulars and are not to be construed as a solicitation or offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned herein. Research Analysts The Research Analyst(s) who prepare these reports certify that their respective report accurately reflects his or her personal opinion and that no part of his/her compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views as to the securities or companies. NBF compensates its Research Analysts from a variety of sources. The Research Department is a cost centre and is funded by the business activities of NBF including, Institutional Equity Sales and Trading, Retail Sales, the correspondent clearing business, and Corporate and Investment Banking. Since the revenues from these businesses vary, the funds for research compensation vary. No one-business line has a greater influence than any other for Research Analyst compensation.

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