Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan: Telecommunications & Internet Markets and International Infrastructure

Transcription

1 Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan: Telecommunications & Internet Markets and International Infrastructure Michael Ruddy Director of International Research Terabit Consulting

2 Regional Overview

3 Part 1: Kyrgyzstan

4 Kyrgyzstan: Background Pop. 5.6 mil, GDP per capita (PPP): USD$2,400 Economic growth restrained in 2010 by civil unrest; recovery in 2011 and 2012 Total ICT services market approximately $500mil Mobile penetration 108%, Fixed 9% 2012: Government announced partial privatization of Kyrgyztelecom

5 Kyrgyzstan: Fixed, Mobile, and Internet Key Mobile Players: SkyMobile/Beeline (Vimpelcom) (nationwide 3G) Megacom (3G) Saima-Telecom 4G Broadband market remains small due to lack of affordability and limited deployment Kyrgyztelecom estimated 60% market share Prices recently reduced to as little as USD$13 for 1 Mbps, USD$6 for 512 Kbps Bishkek: 100 Mbps FTTx network, DSL Kyrgyztelecom s backbone microwave SDH inter-city network was supplemented by 2009 fiber optic buildout DWDM network supplied by Huawei Now focusing on north-south fiber connectivity

6 Kyrgyzstan: International Infrastructure TAE links to Kazakhstan completed in 2000; redundancy added via Korday in 2007 Kazakhtelecom remains major international transit provider Bishkek Teleport satellite connection constructed in mid-1990s New international fiber optic connection between southern Osh Province and Xinjiang, China Tajikistan-Kyrgyzstan (Isfara-Batken) cable constructed in 2009; delayed implementation Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) promoting High-Speed Internet Backbone (HSIB)

7 Part 2: Tajikistan

8 Tajikistan: Background Pop. 7.8 mil, GDP per capita (PPP): USD$2,400 Real GDP growth forecast at 6% annually Total ICT market approx. USD$400mil Mobile penetration >90%, Fixed 5% Internet usage approx. 25% More than 80% of demand is international

9 Tajikistan: Fixed, Mobile, and Internet Fixed-line penetration only 400k lines but Tajiktelecom announced plans in 2012 to provide 100k new fixed lines for low-income families Mobile market Babilon-Mobile 2.7mil (35% share): 3G Tcell (TeliaSonera) 2.5mil (32% share): 3G Megafon & Beeline: 1mil to 1.5mil each Broadband access mostly ADSL & WiMax

10 Tajikistan: International Infrastructure Dushanbe satellite earth station (1994) TAE: From Dushanbe toward border of Uzbekistan via Tursunzade Tajikistan provides transit capacity to Afghanistan via F/O cable (2009) Tajikistan-Kyrgyzstan (Isfara-Batken) cable constructed in 2009; delayed implementation Agreement with China Telecom for Tajikistan- China cable

11 Part 3: Turkmenistan

12 Turkmenistan: Background Pop. 5.1 mil, GDP per capita (PPP): USD$9,000 Strong economic growth driven by hydrocarbons, with 2011 GDP growth as high as 15% Mobile penetration 80%, Fixed 10% Fixed+Mobile revenue may have been as high as $300mil Two major telecom players: Government MTS

13 Turkmenistan: Fixed, Mobile, Internet MTS had 85% mobile market share, 2mil subs, roughly $200mil in revenue in 2010 License suspended in December of 2010 Market departure forced a writedown of $140mil TurkmenTelecom and sudsidiary Altyn Asyr gain market control Difficulty keeping up with demand Grew from 400k subs in 2010 to 1.5mil in 2012 Mid-2012: MTS signs an agreement to return Agreed to pay 30% of net profits to TurkmenTelecom 1 st day subscriptions reported to be 615,000 2,000 km domestic fiber optic backbone

14 Turkmenistan: International Infrastructure Main international connections via TAE to Uzbekistan and Iran Aşgabat earth station still carries significant share of capacity Most international transit provided by Rostelecom, Turk Telekom, Tata Trans Eurasian Information Superhighway (TASIM) would include link across Caspian Sea to Azerbaijan Terrestrial link to Afghanistan at Kushka under consideration

15 Part 4: Uzbekistan

16 Uzbekistan: Background Pop mil, GDP per capita (PPP): USD$3,300 Real GDP growth forecast at 6-7% annually Total ICT Market: over $1bil Mobile penetration 90%, Fixed 7% International Internet bandwidth increased to 10 Gbps in 2011; 40 Gbps in 2012

17 Uzbekistan: Fixed, Internet, and Mobile Broadband: ADSL, FTTx: 150,000 subs Nationwide fiber optic backbone, good rural coverage Uzbektelecom IP transit: USD$442 per month 3 major mobile operators Uzdonrobita (MTS)= 37% share Ucell (TeliaSonera) = 33% Beeline (Vimpelcom) = 28% MTS license withdrawn this past summer 9.5 mil subs, 37% market share Assets seized, executives sentenced

18 Uzbekistan: Fixed, Internet, and Mobile Trans-border fiber optic connectivity to Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Tajikistan via TAE Kazakhtelecom, Rostelecom largest providers of international transit Afghanistan-Uzbekistan cable installed 2009 Tashkent earth station (1992)

19 Part 5: Conclusions

20 Conclusions Approximately $3 billion regional ICT market Broadband is mostly ADSL with some FTTx and WiMax in urban centers Overall broadband penetration remains very low Significant Russian investment in the region Historic transit bandwidth orientation toward Russia/Kazakhstan, but China and Turkey making strong efforts to increase strength in the region MTS has faced shutdowns in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan; only the former was resolved TAE forms backbone of international connections, but mesh network is gradually being developed Opportunity for coherent pan-asian network e.g. LION?

21 Thank you!