Ongoing Macro-stand alone and CGE modelling approaches at UCL Energy Institute
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1 Ongoing Macro-stand alone and CGE modelling approaches at UCL Energy Institute Dr. Matthew Winning Energy Institute, University College London ETSAP Workshop, Copenhagen 19 Nov 2014
2 Contents 1. UK Times Model (UKTM) 2. Macro Stand-Alone 3. Capital-energy substitution 4. UKTM-MSA scenarios, issues and results 5. GTAP-UCL 6. Conclusions and extensions
3 UKTM Energy Systems model Bottom-up with energy technology choice Partial equilibrium, least-cost optimisation Exogenous energy demands New features Non-CO 2 greenhouse gases Non-energy mitigation options Energy storage and other energy infrastructures New time slices (4 intra-day x 4 seasonal) Updated industry and residential sectors Development process Transparency at the forefront of development (data, assumptions, structure is clear and traceable, full replicability of results, comprehensive QA processes) Full sectoral data update & 2010 base-year recalibration User constraints categorized & explicit UKTM will be fully open-source from January 2015
4 MARKAL-Macro in UK Strachan and Kannan (2008), Hybrid modelling of longterm carbon reduction scenarios for the UK, Energy Economics (30), Strachan, Pye and Hughes (2008), The Role of International Drivers on UK scenarios of a low-carbon Society, Climate Policy, 8:sup1, Results: loss of GDP in UK ranging from 0.3% to 1.5% by 2050
5 Motivation Q/ Is it worthwhile linking full-blown CGE model to TIMES for overall impacts i.e. marginal benefit of using TIMES-MSA vs CGE for overall economic impacts? Q/ TIMES-MSA vs. CGE parameterisation of elasticity of substitution between capital and energy
6 TIMES-MSA (Kypreos and Lehtila, 2013) A single-agent, single-sector neoclassical optimal growth general equilibrium model Cumulative and discounted utility maximisation of a representative consumer-producer agent Production function is energy and a capital/labour composite GDP comprises of consumption, investment and energy system costs Explore MSA parameter sensitivities e.g. elasticity of substitution between capital/labour composite and energy E.g. capital to GDP ratio in the UK
7 TIMES-MSA ENERGY SOURCES TECHNOLOGY CHARACTERISTICS ENVIRONMENTAL CONSTRAINTS & POLICIES LABOUR GDP CONSUMPTION UKTM USEFUL ENERGY SERVICES MACRO ENERGY PAYMENTS TECHNOLOGY MIX FUEL MIX EMISSIONS SOURCES & LEVELS FUEL & EMISSION MARGINAL COSTS RANKING OF MITIGATION OPTIONS CAPITAL INVESTMENT
8 TIMES-MSA Parameter Description Default Value TM_ARBM Arbitrary multiplier for the last period replication 1 TM_DEFVAL(item) Default values for regional Macro constants TM_DEFVAL(ESC) 1.03 TM_DEPR(r) Depreciation rate (percentage) 5.00 TM_DMTOL(r) Lower bound factor for the demand variables 0.50 TM_ESUB(r) Elasticity of substitution 0.25 TM_GDP0(r) GDP in the first period TM_GR(r,y) Projected annual GDP growth in per cent TM_IVETOL(r) Investment and energy cost upper bound tolerance 0.50 TM_KGDP(r) Initial capital to GDP ratio 2.50 TM_KPVS(r) Initial capital value share in all production factors 0.25 TM_SCALE_CST Scaling factor for cost units 0.00 TM_SCALE_NRG Scaling factor for the demand units 1.00 TM_SCALE_UTIL Scaling factor for the utility function 0.00 TM_QFAC(r) Switch for market penetration penalty function * 0.00
9 TIMES-MSA Parameter Description Default Value TM_ARBM Arbitrary multiplier for the last period replication 1 TM_DEFVAL(item) Default values for regional Macro constants TM_DEFVAL(ESC) 1.03 TM_DEPR(r) Depreciation rate (percentage) 5.00 TM_DMTOL(r) Lower bound factor for the demand variables 0.50 TM_ESUB(r) Elasticity of substitution 0.25 TM_GDP0(r) GDP in the first period TM_GR(r,y) Projected annual GDP growth in per cent TM_IVETOL(r) Investment and energy cost upper bound tolerance 0.50 TM_KGDP(r) Initial capital to GDP ratio 2.50 TM_KPVS(r) Initial capital value share in all production factors 0.25 TM_SCALE_CST Scaling factor for cost units 0.00 TM_SCALE_NRG Scaling factor for the demand units 1.00 TM_SCALE_UTIL Scaling factor for the utility function 0.00 TM_QFAC(r) Switch for market penetration penalty function * 0.00
10 TIMES-MSA Parameter Description Default Value TM_ARBM Arbitrary multiplier for the last period replication 1 TM_DEFVAL(item) Default values for regional Macro constants TM_DEFVAL(ESC) 1.03 TM_DEPR(r) Depreciation rate (percentage) 5.00 TM_DMTOL(r) Lower bound factor for the demand variables 0.50 TM_ESUB(r) Elasticity of substitution 0.25 TM_GDP0(r) GDP in the first period TM_GR(r,y) Projected annual GDP growth in per cent TM_IVETOL(r) Investment and energy cost upper bound tolerance 0.50 TM_KGDP(r) Initial capital to GDP ratio 2.50 TM_KPVS(r) Initial capital value share in all production factors 0.25 TM_SCALE_CST Scaling factor for cost units 0.00 TM_SCALE_NRG Scaling factor for the demand units 1.00 TM_SCALE_UTIL Scaling factor for the utility function 0.00 TM_QFAC(r) Switch for market penetration penalty function * 0.00
11 Capital-energy substitution Both cross-price substitution and Morishima elasticity of substitution North America Europe SR LR SR LR Morishima Cross-price (M.J. Koeste et al, 2008)
12 Capital-energy substitution Both cross-price substitution and Morishima elasticity of substitution North America Europe SR LR SR LR Morishima Cross-price (M.J. Koeste et al, 2008)
13 UKTM-MSA results Total Energy Total energy 2040 (PJ) UKTM_BASE UKTM_BASE_MSA UKTM_LowGHG_Int2 UKTM_LowGHG_MSA_Int2
14 UKTM-MSA results Base MSA Final energy by fuel LowGHG-MSA ALL BIO ALL COALS ALL ELECTRICITY ALL GAS ALL HYDROGEN ALL MANFUELS ALL OIL PRODUCTS ALL OTHER RNW ALL BIO ALL COALS ALL ELECTRICITY ALL GAS ALL HYDROGEN ALL MANFUELS ALL OIL PRODUCTS ALL OTHER RNW
15 UKTM-MSA results Base Base MSA LowGHG FUEL TECHS AGR FUEL TECHS HYG FUEL TECHS PRC FUEL TECHS SERV FUEL TECHS UPSTREAM FUEL TECHS ELC FUEL TECHS INDUS FUEL TECHS RES FUEL TECHS TRA LowGHG- MSA
16 UKTM-MSA results Total Emissions GHG emissions 2040 (kt) EMIS GHG UPS EMIS GHG TRA EMIS GHG SER EMIS GHG RES EMIS GHG PRC EMIS GHG NEU EMIS GHG IND EMIS GHG HYG EMIS GHG ELC EMIS GHG AGR BASE MSA_035 LowGHG_MSA_Int2
17 UKTM-MSA results Total System Costs Total System Cost
18 GDP loss from baseline UKTM-MSA results Scenario LowGHG LowGHG (esub 0.35)
19 UKTM-MSA results Macro variables: Consumption ( bn) UKTM_BASE_MSA UKTM_BASE_MSA_ UKTM_LowGHG_M SA UKTM_LowGHG_M SA_
20 Macro variables UKTM-MSA results Energy System costs UKTM_BASE_MSA_2050 UKTM_BASE_MSA_035 UKTM_LowGHG_MSA_2050_Int2 UKTM_LowGHG_Int2_MSA_035
21 Macro variables UKTM-MSA results Investment ( bn) UKTM_BASE_MSA_2050 UKTM_BASE_MSA_035 UKTM_LowGHG_MSA_2050_Int2 UKTM_LowGHG_Int2_MSA_035
22 UKTM-MSA issues NLP solver MINOS vs. CONOPT Lower bound on demand required Demand marginals volatility further analysis required
23 GTAP-UCL Based on GTAP-E production structure GTAP8 database based on Social Accounting Matrix and trade data 129 regions, 57 economic sectors, 5 factors of production MCP formulation solved in GAMS Currently standardised methodology of the disaggregation of electricity sector as part of ADVANCE FP7 project
24 Conclusions and future work Comparison of capital/energy substitution in MSA vs. CGE models Linking UKTM with GTAP-UCL Application of MSA to European Times Model WholeSEM link GTAP-UCL and/or UKTM- MSA with UK land-water models such as FORESEER at Cambridge
25 Thank you for listening Questions please!
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