REPORT ON DINARISATION OF THE SERBIAN FINANCIAL SYSTEM. September 2016

Transcription

1 REPORT ON DINARISATION OF THE SERBIAN FINANCIAL SYSTEM September 216 December 216

2 Introductory note A more extensive use of the dinar in the financial system and better currency matching of income and expenses of the non-bank sector will improve the country s financial stability, lessen the risk of exchange rate volatility in the most vulnerable sectors of the economy, and enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy. To support the process of dinarisation, the (NBS) and the Government of the Republic of Serbia signed the Memorandum on the Strategy of Dinarisation of the Serbian Financial System in April 212. Pursuant to the Memorandum, the NBS and the Government have committed to monitoring and analysing the degree of dinarisation and to regularly informing the public about the use of the dinar in the domestic financial system. For that purpose, the NBS prepares and publishes the quarterly Report on Dinarisation of the Serbian Financial System as one of its supporting communication tools. The Report provides information about developments in the dinar market and highlights measures and activities taken or planned by market players and regulatory authorities with a view to supporting the process of dinarisation. Making this information accessible to the wider public will help raise awareness of the need to hedge against risks associated with changes in the exchange rate, as well as understanding of the measures and activities to be taken by the NBS and the Government in order to encourage the process of dinarisation of the Serbian financial system. Reports on Dinarisation of the Serbian Financial System are available on the NBS website (

3 Dinarisation strategy The dinarisation strategy rests on three inter-connected pillars. The first pillar is the most general, but also the most important one. It envisages measures to strengthen the macroeconomic environment by delivering low and stable inflation, a stable financial system and sustainable economic growth. The second pillar consists of measures to promote dinar-denominated instruments and markets, with a special emphasis on the development of the dinar bond market. The development of the dinar yield curve is an important cornerstone of this pillar. The third pillar aims to promote hedging against the risks associated with foreign exchange rate exposure in the non-bank sector and to discourage further build-up of those risks. The will lead the efforts in this field, working together with the banking sector on introducing and developing basic hedging instruments both for the interbank market and for clients.

4 ABBREVIATIONS mln million bln billion pp percentage point Q quarter q-o-q quarter-on-quarter Other generally accepted abbreviations are not cited.

5 Contents I. Dinarisation of the Serbian financial system Corporate and household lending... 1 Text box 1: Dinar housing loans under more favourable terms New corporate and household loans... 4 Text box 2: Issue of the first supranational dinar bond in the domestic financial market Corporate and household deposits Dinar and FX savings Public debt... 8 II. FX hedging instruments FX swap auctions FX hedging instruments...11 Methodological notes...13 List of charts and tables...14

6 Total Corp. Hous. Total Corp. Hous. Total Corp. Hous. Total Corp. Hous. Report on Dinarisation of the Serbian Financial System I. Dinarisation of the Serbian financial system In Q3 216, the degree of dinarisation of the Serbian financial system increased, as confirmed by all relevant dinarisation indicators. 1. Corporate and household lending By contrast to FX-indexed and FX loans, dinar corporate and household loans recorded robust growth in Q3. As a result, their share in total corporate and household loans went up. Under the impact of past monetary policy easing, low rates in the international market, greater bank competition and acceleration of economic activity, lending to the corporate and household sectors continued up in Q3 (by RSD 36. bln). This growth fully reflects the vigorous rise in dinar loans (RSD 42.6 bln), whose share in total loans went up by 1.6 pp to 31.4%. 1 In terms of sectoral structure, the share of dinar loans in total household loans increased compared to Q2 (by 1.3 pp) and reached 46.3% in late September. 2 The vigorous rise in dinar household lending (RSD 21. bln) is due primarily to the persistently high amount of approved cash loans (including refinancing loans). FX and FX-indexed household loans witnessed a moderate increase (RSD 1.8 bln), primarily due to a rise in housing loans against the backdrop of relatively favourable terms of financing for banks and improved situation in the real estate market, both in terms of offer and price. The majority of housing loans remained FX-indexed. In terms of macroeconomic stability and dinarisation in the coming period, a positive signal is the appearance of dinar housing loans in banks offer, under relatively favourable terms. This means that banks believe that macroeconomic stability has been achieved, while at the same time conditions have been created for a long-term increase in the degree of dinarisation in the coming period. Lending to corporates also increased in Q3 (by RSD 13.2 bln), reflecting a rise in dinar loans to enterprises (by RSD 21.5 bln). These loans are intended mainly for current assets financing and debt refinancing, and concern primarily enterprises that operate in the sectors experiencing growth manufacturing, agriculture, construction and trade. Chart I.1.1. Share of dinar lending in total corporate and household lending (RSD bln) (%) 2,4 2,1 1,8 1,5 1, I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III Dinar lending (l.s.) FX-indexed and -denominated lending (l.s.) Share of dinar lending in total lending (r.s.) Chart I.1.2. Lending by sector 2,4 2, 1,6 1, (RSD bln) (%) FX-indexed and -denominated lending (l.s.) Dinar lending (l.s.) Share of dinar lending in total lending (r.s.) The growth in corporate lending was achieved in the conditions when banks, active in the NPL resolution field, are 1 Observed by the constant RSD/EUR exchange rate as at 31 December 215, at end-q3 this indicator equalled 31.6%, up by 1.6 pp from the quarter before. 2 At the constant exchange rate, the share went up by 1.3 pp to 46.6%. 1

7 still selling, i.e. writing off a part of these receivables to nonbanking entities. The negative effect of the maturing of subsidised dinar corporate loans (approved in 214) on the stock of (dinar) receivables to corporates dissipated as the last loans approved under the programme matured by end-q2. As a result, the negative effect on the dinarisation of corporate lending waned as well. As a consequence of the above factors, the share of dinar in total corporate loans increased by 1.6 pp in Q3 to 2.7% in late Q Observed by the constant exchange rate, this indicator rose by 1.7 pp to 2.9% at end-q3. 2

8 Text box 1: Dinar housing loans under more favourable terms The bank offer in the local market was recently replenished with non-fx-indexed dinar housing loans, at relatively favourable terms (rates under 5%) and a long repayment period (up to 3 years). The appearance of these loans confirms good results of the NBS s monetary policy and the process of macroeconomic stabilisation of the country. It also reflects trust in the sustainability of the adopted measures and policies going forward. Low and stable inflation and cuts in the NBS key policy rate impacted on the lowering of interest rates on dinar loans, whose levels are gradually converging to those in the neighbouring countries and the EU. For the majority of the population who receive salaries in dinars, taking non-fx-indexed dinar housing loans eliminates currency risk, which positively affects financial stability in the long run. The appearance of these loans was prompted also by a continuous rise in dinar sources of bank funding, among other dinar household savings which against the backdrop of low inflation, a relatively stable dinar exchange rate, relatively attractive interest rates and more favourable tax treatment of dinar relative to FX savings have expanded by almost three times over the past four years. Further growth in bank dinar sources is expected to result in a more diverse offer, but also in a further decline in interest rates on dinar loans both to corporates and households. 3

9 2. New corporate and household loans In Q3, banks approved to the corporate and household sectors the largest amount of new loans in five years. The share of dinar loans increased. In Q3, banks approved to the corporate and household sectors new loans worth RSD bln. In quarterly terms, this is the largest amount in five years. Compared to the quarter before, the amount of new loans went up by RSD 7.4 bln or 2.4%, fully reflecting a higher degree of dinar lending (by RSD 11.2 bln or 9.5%). The amount of FX and FX-indexed loans was somewhat smaller than in Q2 (by RSD 3.7 bln or 1.9%). As a result, the share of dinar in total new loans went up (by 2.6 pp to 39.8%). Broken down by sector, credit growth in Q3 was driven by more intensive lending to the corporate sector which relied on dinar loans to a greater extent than in Q2. In Q3, on average 25.2% of new loans were approved in dinars, vs. 2.4% in Q2. As so far, corporates used the loans mainly to finance current assets (around 52% of total new loans). In Q3, dinar loans were used for such purpose to a greater extent. In addition, the relatively high share of investment loans (still approved with a currency clause) was preserved (around 25% of total new loans). Chart I.2.1. Share of dinar loans in newly granted corporate and household loans (RSD bln) (%) I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III Dinar loans (l.s.) FX-indexed and -denominated loans (l.s.) Share of dinar loans in total loans (r.s.) In Q3, the amount of new household loans declined slightly relative to Q2, due to a somewhat smaller amount of dinar loans. Despite this, most households remained in favour of dinar loans (75.3%), though to a somewhat smaller extent relative to Q2 (76.1%). Banks continued to approve to households predominantly cash loans, which, as a rule, are approved in dinars (over 99%) and of which around 7% have an over five-year maturity term. Housing loans continued up, accounting for around 16% of new loans. As a rule, these loans are approved with a euro clause, although, as already said, banks offer was replenished with dinar housing loans as well, at relatively favourable terms. 4

10 Text box 2: Issue of the first supranational dinar bond in the domestic financial market On 5 December, the first dinar bond was issued in the domestic financial market by an international financial institution the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). The bond was issued at a fair value of RSD 2.5 bln, three-year maturity, variable interest rate at the level of three-month BELIBOR plus.4 pp. In line with domestic legislation, the bonds were registered with the Central Securities Depository, admitted to the prime listing of the Belgrade Stock Exchange and allowed to be traded in the regulated secondary market. Investors demand outstripped significantly the offer it equalled around RSD 4 bln. The great interest of investors banks and pension funds in these securities signals their trust in the sustainability of past economic policy measures and preservation of macroeconomic stability in the period ahead. Given that the issuer of the dinar bond is for the first time an international financial institution with the highest credit rating (AAA), this issue confirms that the international professional community believes that the credibility of the national currency the dinar, i.e. the credibility of domestic monetary policy, has been significantly improved. Furthermore, by buying these securities investors have raised the quality of their portfolios. Finally, these securities were incorporated in the portfolio of securities used for NBS open market operations, and are acceptable as a pledge for loan taking with the NBS, similarly to daily liquidity loans and short-term loans against the collateral of securities etc. According to the EBRD, the dinars collected will be used for the approval of dinar loans to SMEs and local governments in Serbia. In terms of dinarisation, the issuance of these securities in the domestic financial market is a significant step forward towards further development of the dinar segment of the financial market, as well as towards ensuring additional sources for dinar lending, which may mitigate the currency risk in the corporate and household sectors. 5

11 Total Corp. Hous. Total Corp. Hous. Total Corp. Hous. Total Corp. Hous. Report on Dinarisation of the Serbian Financial System 3. Corporate and household deposits In Q3, dinar deposits rose faster than FX deposits with both corporates and households. Hence, the degree of dinarisation of corporate and household deposits increased from 25.8% at end-q2 to 27.3%. Corporate and household deposits went up by RSD 6.2 bln in Q3 to RSD 1,852.5 bln at end-september. More than half of the total increase in deposits is attributable to the rise in dinar corporate deposits (RSD 32.1 bln). Against the backdrop of recovery in the majority of economic sectors, dinar deposits rose in the accounts of enterprises in almost all sectors, most notably manufacturing and energy. Corporate FX deposits also increased which, as in the previous period, can be associated with good export results of the economy. However, FX deposits rose more moderately than dinar deposits, leading to an increase in the dinarisation of corporate deposits to 52.7%, up by 1.6 pp from a quarter earlier. Household deposits also rose (by RSD 16.3 bln), driven by the continued growth in dinar deposits (by RSD 1.2 bln). As for the structure of dinar household deposits, the largest growth was recorded in current accounts. Dinar savings also continued up, reaching all-time highs. FX household deposits also posted growth, though somewhat slighter than that of dinar deposits. Owing to such movements, the share of dinar deposits in total household deposits rose by.6 pp in Q3, reaching 14.9% at end-september. Chart I.3.1. Share of dinar deposits in total corporate and household deposits (RSD bln) (%) 2, 3 1,5 1, 5 I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III Dinar deposits (l.s.) FX-indexed and -denominated deposits (l.s.) Share of dinar deposits in total deposits (r.s.) Chart I.3.2. Deposits by sector (RSD bln) 2, 1,75 1,5 1,25 1, Dinar deposits (l.s.) FX-indexed and -denominated deposits (l.s.) (%) Share of dinar deposits in total deposits (r.s.) 6

12 4. Dinar and FX savings Dinar and FX savings continued up in Q3. As dinar savings rose relatively faster than FX savings, its share in total savings increased slightly (by.1 pp to 4.4%). At end-september, dinar savings reached a historic high RSD 49. bln. Relative to end-june, dinar savings rose by RSD 1.3 bln (or 2.8%), or by RSD 3.6 bln (or 8.%) compared to end-215. An extended period of low and stable inflation and relative stability of the dinar exchange rate, including higher interest rates on dinar savings and a more favourable tax treatment relative to FX savings, resulted in a further rise in dinar savings in Q3. As in the previous quarter, the rise in dinar savings in Q3 was driven by higher deposits termed for less than one year (by RSD 2.1 bln), while savings termed for a longer period declined (by RSD.8 bln). This led to changes in the maturity structure of dinar savings, acting in favour of savings termed for less than a year which accounted for four-fifths of total dinar savings in Q3. FX savings of households also increased in Q3. At end- September, the total savings in FX accounts of households equalled EUR 8,547.5 mln, up by EUR 47.7 mln (or.6%) from end-q2. FX savings increased on account of a rise in deposits termed for less than a year (by EUR mln), most notably demand savings deposits. The amount of longermaturity deposits declined (by EUR mln) due to a smaller amount of savings deposits termed for the period from one to two years. These movements led to a change in the maturity structure of FX savings in favour of shorter maturities savings deposits termed for less than one year made up three-quarters of total FX savings at end-september. Chart I.4.1. Dinar and FX savings (RSD bln) (EUR bln) I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III Dinar savings I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III FX savings Chart I.4.2. Maturity structure of dinar savings (3 September 216) 1-2 years; 11.9% 6 months- 1 year; 31.7% Over 2 years; 7.8% 3-6 months; 11.1% Up to 3 months; 37.5% Chart I.4.3. Maturity structure of FX savings (3 September 216) Over 2 years; 13.6% 1-2 years; 11.3% Up to 3 months; 5.4% 6 months- 1 year; 21.7% 3-6 months; 3.% 7

13 5. Public debt Public debt declined further in Q3. The government increased the dinar share of debt, and reduced the debt in other currencies, hence the dinar share of public debt edged up to 21.4% from 2.8% in Q2. Public debt contracted in Q3 for the third straight quarter. At end-september it equalled RSD 2,976.1 bln, down by RSD 5.8 bln from end-june. The decrease is attributable to government repayments under the FX portion of public debt, which declined in all currencies. As for the currency structure of the FX portion of public debt, the share in euros declined the most (EUR 24. mln). In the observed period, the government reduced the euro part of the debt on account of regulating previously approved guarantees to public enterprises and settling the debt under frozen FX savings. By contrast, this period saw an increase in government borrowing in euros on account of the issue of securities in the domestic financial market and borrowing from international financial institutions. The portion of public debt in Swiss francs also declined (by CHF 23.5 mln) owing to the settlement of indirect obligations under previously approved guarantees to public enterprises in this currency. The dollar portion of public debt also contracted, though by a relatively smaller amount (by USD 3.7 mln). This came about on account of the settlement of a part of obligations to the Paris Club and regulating previously approved guarantees to public enterprises in dollars, which was for the most part offset by increased borrowing under bilateral credit arrangements with other countries notably the Government of the Russian Federation and the China Development Bank. In contrast to the FX share, the dinar share of public debt increased (by RSD 14.8 bln), mostly due to higher government borrowing on account of dinar securities issued in the domestic capital market. Due to such movements, the dinar portion of public debt increased (by.5 pp to 21.4%). The largest part of the debt, however, is still denominated in euros (4.8%) and dollars (33.%), and a minor portion in Swiss francs (.6%). Public debt in respect of securities issued in the domestic market amounted to RSD bln at end-q3, up by RSD 23.4 bln from Q2. The government borrowing increased in this market in terms of both dinar and FX securities. Chart I.5.1. Share of dinar debt in total RS public debt (RSD bln) 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III Dinar debt (l.s.) FX debt (l.s.) Source: Ministry of Finance. Share of dinar debt in total RS public debt (r.s.) Chart I.5.2. Currency structure of RS public debt (3 September 216) EUR; 4.8% USD; 33.% * GBP, JPY, DKK, SEK, NOK Source: Ministry of Finance. CHF;.6% RSD; 21.3% Chart I.5.3. Maturity structure of government securities issued on the domestic market (end-quarter data) (RSD bln) 1, SDR; 3.7% other currencies *;.6% I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III Short-term dinar denominated securities (T-bills) Long-term dinar denominated securities Long-term euro denominated securities Source: Ministry of Finance. (%) In the dinar securities market, the bulk of government 8

14 securities were issued with maturities longer than one year. As a portion of previously issued securities with maturities up to one year matured for payment in Q3 (equalling RSD 2.2 bln), the portfolio of these securities contracted to negligible levels in Q3 (RSD.7 bln or.1% of the total portfolio of dinar government securities). On the other hand, public debt continued to increase in respect of dinar securities with longer maturities, and at end- September the total value of their portfolio amounted to RSD bln, up by RSD 18.3 bln from end-june. This was due to higher government borrowing on account of the issuance of dinar benchmark bonds with seven-year (by RSD 28.3 bln) and three-year maturities (by RSD 7.7 mln). By contrast, the stock of long-term securities with shorter maturities declined (by a total of RSD 17.7 bln). Such movements led to an increase in the average maturity of the portfolio of dinar government securities from 24.7 months in June to 25.9 months in Q3. Public debt increased in respect of FX government securities issued in the domestic market by EUR 59.6 mln to EUR 2,868.2 mln in late Q3. This is almost entirely due to higher borrowing in respect of securities with the original maturities of five years (by EUR 1. mln), issued in September. Trading volumes in the secondary market of dinar government securities came at RSD 8.6 bln in Q3, down by more than a third from a quarter earlier. Secondary trading decreased due to lower trading in securities with the original maturities of two and three years. Trading in these securities on the Belgrade Stock Exchange also declined to RSD 4.3 bln in Q3, down by RSD 2.5 bln from the previous quarter. Chart I.5.4. Secondary trading in dinar government securities (RSD bln) I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III m 6-m 12-m 53-w 18-m 2-y 3-y 5-y 7-y 1-y Source: Ministry of Finance and CSD. Chart I.5.5. Secondary trading in dinar government securities excluding transactions effected up to two business days from the primary settlement date (RSD bln) I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III Total trading in dinar securities Trading excluding transactions executed up to two business days from the primary settlement date Source: Ministry of Finance and CSD. Securities with original maturities of more than one year were still traded exclusively in the secondary market of dinar government securities. The bulk of the trading concerned three-year (45.9%) and seven-year securities (41.%). The volume of secondary trading in dinar securities following the settlement of primary trading equalled RSD 11. bln in Q3, and accounted for 13.7% of the total trading volume. This trading related exclusively to one series of benchmark government bonds with a seven-year maturity, issued in July. 9

15 II. FX hedging instruments 1. FX swap auctions In Q3, the NBS continued with regular three-month and two-week FX swap auctions. At 26 regular three-month FX swap auctions organised in Q3, the NBS swap sold and bought EUR 45. mln. The NBS held 28 regular two-week auctions, where it swap sold and bought EUR 114. mln, EUR 4. mln more than in the previous quarter (EUR 74. mln). The highest volume of swaps was recorded in September when the NBS swap sold and bought EUR 57. mln. At all auctions held, the NBS swap bought and sold the same amount, but with a positive difference in swap points, which indicates interest in developing interbank swap trading, i.e. domestic interbank swap market. For the purpose of liquidity management, in Q3 banks entered into three interbank swap transactions of purchase and sale of FX for dinars, worth EUR 9.7 mln. The average weighted maturity of these transactions was seven days. Table II.1.1. NBS sw ap transactions, quarterly data (EUR mln) Quarter Sw ap FX sale Sw ap FX purchase 215 Q Q Q Q Тotal in Q Q Q Total in Table II.1.2. NBS sw ap transactions in 216, monthly data (EUR mln) Month Sw ap FX sale Sw ap FX purchase 3M 2W 3M 2W January February March Total in Q April May June Total in Q July August September Total in Q Total in

16 2. FX hedging instruments Resident transactions with banks in Q3 mainly related to forward purchases of foreign currency for dinars (a total of EUR 91.6 mln, or EUR 61.3 mln less than in Q2). The share of forward FX purchases by residents from banks in total FX purchases equalled 3.2% in Q3 (5.2% in Q2), and was the highest in July 5.2%. Eleven domestic enterprises hedged against FX risks by entering into this type of transaction with banks. The weighted average maturity of forward FX purchases was 31 days, while the longest weighted average maturity was recorded in August 211 days (the extremely long maturity resulted from the 252-days long maturity of a EUR 7.5 mln transaction, relative to other transactions with a low weight, which on average equalled EUR.3 mln). The value of forward FX purchase contracts of residents averaged EUR.6 mln. The currency structure of forward deals was dominated by the US dollar 68.5%. The euro accounted for 31.5%. Q3 saw eight forward FX sales by one resident, with the total value of EUR 2.9 mln and average weighted maturity of 361 days (there were no forward FX sales by residents in Q2). Table II.2.1. FX forw ard transactions betw een residents and banks, quarterly data Quarter 215 Amount in EUR mln Weighted av erage maturity in day s % share in total purchase Amount in EUR mln Weighted av erage maturity in days % share in total sale Q Q Q Q Total in Q Q Q Total in Forward purchase by residents Forward sale by residents Table II.2.2. FX forw ard transactions betw een residents and banks in 216, monthly data Month Forward purchase by residents Amount in EUR mln Weighted av erage maturity in day s % share in total purchase Amount in EUR mln Forward sale by residents Weighted av erage maturity in days % share in total sale January February March Total in Q April May June Total in Q July August September Total in Q Total in Chart II.2.1. Currency structure of FX forward transactions between residents and banks in Q3 216 EUR 31.5% USD 68.5% 11

17 Table А. Dinarisation indicators (in %) Period* Share of dinar in total lending, outstanding amounts Share of dinar in total lending, new business** Share of dinar in total deposits, outstanding amounts Corporates Households Total Corporates Households Total Corporates Households Total Share of dinar in total household savings Share of dinar in total public debt I II III * Unless otherwise stated, indicators show data at end-period. ** Indicators are construed based on data on the amount of newly approved loans during the period. For the year 21, indicators relate to the period September-December. 12

18 Methodological notes 1. Lending includes dinar and FX (including FX-indexed) loans, advances, securities, corporate shares, receivables from interest and charges. Dinar loans are loans extended in dinars without an FXclause. An FX-clause is a currency clause as defined by the Law on Foreign Exchange Operations and any other clause stipulating hedge against the risk of dinar exchange rate volatility. 2. Lending is expressed by the gross principle, i.e. it is not reduced by value adjustment. When excluding the exchange rate effects, the exchange rate of the dinar against the euro, Swiss franc and US dollar is taken into account. 3. In line with the ECB methodology, the category of newly granted loans also includes re-scheduled loans. 4. In line with the ECB methodology, the household sector includes entrepreneurs and non-profit institutions serving households. 5. Deposits include dinar and FX (including FX-indexed) deposits. 13

19 List of charts and tables Charts I.1.1. Share of dinar lending in total corporate and household lending 1 I.1.2. Lending by sector 1 I.2.1. Share of dinar loans in newly granted corporate and household loans 4 I.3.1. Share of dinar deposits in total corporate and household deposits 6 I.3.2. Deposits by sector 6 I.4.1. Dinar and FX savings 7 I.4.2. Maturity structure of dinar savings (3 September 216) 7 I.4.3. Maturity structure of FX savings (3 September 216) 7 I.5.1. Share of dinar debt in total RS public debt 8 I.5.2. Currency structure of RS public debt (3 September 216) 8 I.5.3. Maturity structure of government securities (end-of-quarter data) 8 I.5.4. Secondary trading in dinar government securities 9 I.5.5. Secondary trading in dinar government securities excluding transactions effected up to two business days from the primary settlement date 9 II.2.1. Currency structure of FX forward transactions between residents and banks in Q Tables II.1.1. NBS swap transactions, quarterly data 11 II.1.2. NBS swap transactions in 216, monthly data 11 II.2.1. FX forward transactions between residents and banks, quarterly data 12 II.2.2. FX forward transactions between residents and banks in 216, monthly data 12 А Dinarisation indicators 13 14