REPORT ON THE RESULTS OF THE BANK LENDING SURVEY

Transcription

1 REPORT ON THE RESULTS OF THE BANK LENDING SURVEY August 2014

2 Introductory note The National Bank of Serbia (NBS) started conducting the bank lending survey in The aim of the survey is to improve understanding of credit market developments, by getting insight into banks perspective on actual and expected changes in loan supply and demand. The survey comprises ten questions relating to lending to enterprises and households. Respondents are asked about changes in credit standards 1, factors affecting credit standards, change in terms and conditions for loan approval, changes in loan demand and factors affecting loan demand. This Report presents the results of the bank lending survey carried out between 1 and 10 July The results reported relate to changes during the second quarter of 2014 and expectations of changes in the third quarter of Out of 29 banks operating in the Serbian market, 27 participated in the survey. This ensures almost full coverage of the credit market since these banks make up 99% of total banking sector assets. The results are shown in terms of net percentage. As regards credit standards and conditions (loan supply), net percentage is the difference between the sum of the percentages of banks reporting tightened considerably and tightened somewhat as their dominant response and the sum of the percentages of banks reporting eased considerably and eased somewhat. Positive value of the net percentage indicates net tightening, and negative net easing of credit standards and conditions. As regards the factors affecting credit standards/terms, net percentage is the difference between the percentage of banks responding that a given factor contributed to the tightening of credit standards/terms and the percentage of banks responding that the same factor contributed to their easing. As regards demand for loans, net percentage is the difference between the sum of the percentages of banks responding that the demand increased considerably and increased somewhat and the sum of the percentages of banks responding that it decreased considerably and decreased somewhat. Hence, positive value of the net percentage indicates a net increase and negative a net decrease of demand. 1 Credit standards are written and unwritten internal guidelines or criteria reflecting a bank s credit policy (e.g. preferences in terms of credit type, collateral, sector, region, etc).

3 3

4 C O N T E N T S OVERVIEW... 5 LOANS TO ENTERPRISES... 6 LOANS TO HOUSEHOLDS iv

5 OVERVIEW According to the bank lending survey, credit standards for all categories of loans to enterprises tightened in the second quarter of 2014, as did the loan approval conditions concerning maximum loans size, maturity and collateral requirements, while interest margins and non-interest rate charges decreased. The demand for all loan categories increased, particularly for dinar loans and loans to SMEs and agricultural producers. Credit standards and conditions on loans to households were more stable. The most significant change in conditions in the second quarter relates to the easing of interest margins on dinar loans. An increase in household demand was recorded for cash and refinancing loans, as well as for foreign currency consumer loans. 5

6 LOANS TO ENTERPRISES Q2 2 saw a further tightening in credit standards on loans to enterprises, though with a smaller number of banks than in Q1, which is consistent with the expectations reported in the April survey. Standards for all loan categories tightened the most for loans to large enterprises and the least for loans to SMEs. No further changes in credit standards are expected in Q3, except for loans to large enterprises that are likely to be tightened by a relatively small number of banks. 2 Q quarter. 6

7 Loans to enterprises The tightening of credit standards reflects deteriorating risk perception with regard to collectability of receivables and loss recovery through sale of collateral, as well as expectations regarding general economic activity. What worked in the opposite direction, i.e. towards easing of credit standards were the cost of funding, and in case of dinar loans competition from other banks. Q2 also saw a tightening in conditions for approving loans to enterprises concerning maximum size of the loan, demanded collateral and maturity, and an easing in price conditions, i.e. a decrease in interest margins and non-interest charges. The only exception were interest margins on loans to large enterprises which marked an increase, and non-interest charges on loans to large enterprises and agricultural producers which remained unchanged. The expected conditions for loan approval in 7

8 Q3 are similar to current trends easing is expected for price conditions, while other conditions are expected to tighten further, though less so than in Q2. The demand for all loans increased in Q2, and most of all for dinar long-term loans and loans to SMEs and agricultural producers, which only goes to show the importance of the subsidised lending programme. As factors of demand growth, the survey reported the needs for financing working capital and debt restructuring, and to a lesser degree, competition from other banks. At the same time, capital investment and mergers/acquisitions exerted a dampening effect on demand for loans. A further rise in demand, propelled by the same factors, is expected in Q3 for all loan categories, and dinar loans and loans to SMEs in particular. 8

9 Loans to enterprises. 9

10 LOANS TO HOUSEHOLDS A change in credit standards on loans to households in Q2 was recorded only with a relatively small number of banks. In case of dinar-denominated cash loans and refinancing loans, these standards were loosened, but were at the same time tightened for the same type of loans in foreign currency. Standards were also tightened for dinar consumer loans. No major changes in credit standards are expected in Q3. Similar to the loans to enterprises, the cost of funding and competition from other banks worked towards the easing of credit standards, while worsening risk perception acted as a catalyst to their tightening, though less so than in the case of loans to enterprises. 10

11 Loans to households Price conditions for approving dinar loans to households were eased, especially interest margins, and in a relatively small part of the banking sector non-interest charges too. Conditions with regard to loan maturity and grace period were also eased. Tightening was noted only for collateral requirements. In Q3, easing is expected for dinar interest margins, while other conditions are expected to stay unchanged. Household demand for the majority of loan categories increased in Q2. The increase was the strongest in case of dinar cash loans and refinancing loans. Refinancing needs and, to a lesser extent, the purchase of durable consumer goods 11

12 contributed positively to the demand for loans, while all other factors provided a negative contribution. Looking forward, in Q3 banks expect a continued increase in demand for dinar and foreign currency cash loans and refinancing loans, and a fall in demand for consumer loans. 12