Preventing Youth Violence in the US: Implications for Developing Countries

Transcription

1 Preventing Youth Violence in the US: Implications for Developing Countries J. David Hawkins, Ph.D. Endowed Professor of Prevention Social Development Research Group School of Social Work University of Washington

2 Objectives n A science-based public health approach to violence prevention. n Advances in identifying effective and ineffective youth violence prevention policies and programs. n A strategy for enhancing protection, reducing risk and preventing youth violence. n A process for community wide youth violence prevention.

3 History of Delinquency Prevention in the U.S. n Before 1980, nine experimental tests of delinquency prevention programs were conducted in the U.S. NONE found desired effects in preventing delinquency. (Berleman,, 1980)

4 The Premise of Prevention Science To prevent a problem before it happens, the factors that predict the problem must be changed.

5 Advances in Prediction Longitudinal studies have identified predictors of delinquency, violence, and other problem behaviors Called : Risk factors. AND predictors of positive outcomes including success in school Called : Promotive and protective factors.

6 Risk Factors for Adolescent Problem Behaviors Risk Factors Substance Abuse Delinquency Teen Pregnancy School Drop-Out Violence Depression & Anxiety Community Availability of Drugs Availability of Firearms Community Laws and Norms Favorable Toward Drug Use, Firearms, and Crime Media Portrayals of Violence Transitions and Mobility Low Neighborhood Attachment and Community Disorganization Extreme Economic Deprivation

7 Risk Factors for Adolescent Problem Behaviors Risk Factors Substance Abuse Delinquency Teen Pregnancy School Drop-Out Violence Depression & Anxiety Family Family History of the Problem Behavior Family Management Problems Family Conflict Favorable Parental Attitudes and Involvement in the Problem Behavior

8 Risk Factors for Adolescent Problem Behaviors Risk Factors Substance Abuse Delinquency Teen Pregnancy School Drop-Out Violence Depression & Anxiety School Academic Failure Beginning in Late Elementary School Lack of Commitment to School

9 Risk Factors for Adolescent Problem Behaviors Risk Factors Substance Abuse Delinquency Teen Pregnancy School Drop-Out Violence Depression & Anxiety Individual/Peer Early and Persistent Antisocial Behavior Rebelliousness Friends Who Engage in the Problem Behavior Favorable Attitudes Toward the Problem Behavior Early Initiation of the Problem Behavior Constitutional Factors

10 Promotive and Protective Factors Individual Characteristics High Intelligence Resilient Temperament Competencies and Skills In social domains of family, school, peer group and neighborhood Prosocial Opportunities Reinforcement for Prosocial Involvement Bonding Healthy Beliefs and Clear Standards for Behavior

11 Prevalence of Attacked to Hurt By Risk and Protection Levels 60% 50% Prevalence 40% 30% 20% Protection, Level 0 Protection, Level 1 Protection, Level 2 Protection, Level 3 Protection, Level 4 10% 0% Risk, Level 0 Risk, Level 1 Risk, Level 2 Risk, Level 3 Risk, Level 4

12 Prevalence of Academic Success By Number of Risk and Protective Factors 100% Six State Student Survey of 6th-12th Graders, Public School Students 90% Prevalence 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% Number of Protective Factors 0 to 1 2 to 3 4 to 5 6 to 7 8 to 9 30% 20% 10% 0% 0 to 1 2 to 3 4 to 5 6 to 7 8 to Number of Risk Factors

13 What Is Known About Predictors of Youth Violence v Risk & protective factors are found in communities, families, schools, peer groups and individuals. v The same risk & protective factors predict violence and other health and behavior problems of youth. v Risk & protective factors show much consistency in effects across races and genders in samples from the US, the UK, Australia and the Netherlands. v The more risk factors present, the greater likelihood of violence, and the less likelihood of successful outcomes. v Protective factors reduce effects of exposure to risk -- the greater the level of protection, the less likelihood of violence.

14 Advances in Prevention Controlled studies have identified both ineffective and effective prevention and youth development policies and programs.

15 What Doesn t Work? *Negative Effects Waivers to Adult (Criminal Courts)* Scared Straight * D.A.R.E. Guided Group Interaction & Positive Peer Culture Gun Buyback Programs Peer Counseling Programs Summer Job Programs for At Risk Youth * Adapted from Sherman et al., 1997.

16 Effective Programs and Policies Have Been Identified in a Wide Range of Areas 1. Prenatal & Infancy Programs 2. Early Childhood Education 3. Parent Training 4. After-school Recreation 5. Mentoring with Contingent Reinforcement 6. Youth Employment with Education 7. Organizational Change in Schools 8. Classroom Organization, Management, and Instructional Strategies 9. School Behavior Management Strategies 10. Curricula for Social Competence Promotion 11. Community & School Policies 12. Community Mobilization (Hawkins & Catalano, 2004)

17 Lists of Rigorously Tested and Effective Youth Violence Prevention Approaches Blueprints for Violence Prevention Communities That Care Prevention Strategies Guide

18 Nurse-Family Partnership Description: Target: Nurse home visitation Low-income, at-risk pregnant women bearing their first child Contact: David Olds, M.D., Director Prevention Research Center 1825 Marion Street Denver, CO

19 Nurse-Family Partnership Reductions in: Evidence of Effect hprenatal Health Problems. hsubsequent Births. hwelfare and Food Stamp Use. hmaternal Arrests (61%) and Convictions (72%).

20 Nurse-Family Partnership Evidence of Effect Reductions in: i Maternal Unemployment. i Child abuse, neglect, and injuries (48%). i Child Arrests (59%) and Adjudications as PINS age 15.

21 Promoting Alternative Thinking Strategies (PATHS) Description: Social and emotional competence Target: Grades K-5 Cost: Contact: $82/student Yr 1 (training & FT consultant included) Costs in Year 2 reduced by half Mark Greenberg, Ph.D., Director Prevention Research Center, Penn State University 110 HDFS-Henderson Building South University Park, PA

22 PATHS Evidence of Effect Decreased conduct problems, including aggression. Improved self-control. Improved understanding and recognition of emotions. Improved conflict resolution strategies. Improved cognitive planning.

23 Bullying Prevention Program Description: Reduction of victim/bully problems Target: Grades 4-7 Cost: Contact: Full-time consultant, minimal classroom costs Dan Olweus, Ph.D. Research Center for Health Promotion (HEMIL) University of Bergen Christiesgt. 13, N-5015 Bergen, Norway

24 Bullying Prevention Program Evidence of Effect Reductions in bully/victim problems of 50 percent. Reductions in antisocial behavior (theft, vandalism, truancy). Improvement in school climate.

25 Seattle Social Development Project Description: Promote bonding to school and family by increasing youths opportunities, skills and recognition for prosocial involvement. Target: Grades 1-6 (ages 6-12) Contact: J. David Hawkins Ph.D. Social Development Research Group University of Washington

26 The Social Development Strategy The Goal Healthy Behaviors for all children and youth Ensure Healthy Beliefs and Clear Standards in families, schools, and peer groups Build Bonding Attachment Commitment to families, schools, and peer groups By providing Opportunities Skills Recognition in families, schools, and peer groups Be Aware of Individual Characteristics

27 Seattle Social Development Project Core Components nteacher Training in Classroom Instruction and Management nparent Training in Behavior Management and Academic Support nchild Social and Emotional Skill Development

28 SSDP Intervention Effects Compared to Controls By age 18 Youths in the Full Intervention had less heavy alcohol use: less lifetime violence: fewer lifetime sex partners: less grade repetition: 25.0% Control vs. 15.4% Full 59.7% Control vs. 48.3% Full 61.5% Control vs. 49.7% Full 22.8% Control vs. 14.0% Full Control Late Tx Full Intervention Late Tx Full Intervention Control Grade Age

29 SSDP Intervention Effects Compared to Controls By age 21, full intervention group had: More high school graduates: More attending college: Fewer selling drugs: Fewer with a criminal record: 81% Control vs. 91% Full 6% Control vs. 14% Full 13% Control vs. 4% Full 53% Control vs. 42% Full Control Late Tx Full Intervention Late Tx Full Intervention Control Grade Age

30 Benefits and Costs of Prevention and Early Intervention Programs for Youth Steve Aos, Associate Director Washington State Institute for Public Policy Phone: (360) Institute Publications:

31 Summary of Benefits and Costs (2003 Dollars) Dollars Per Youth (PV lifecycle) Selected Findings Benefits Costs B - C Early Childhood Education $17,202 $7,301 $9,901 Nurse Family Partnership $26,298 $9,118 $17,180 Functional Family Therapy $16,455 $2,140 $14,315 Aggression Repl. Trng. $9,564 $759 $8,805 Life Skills Training $746 $29 $717 Seattle Soc. Dev. Project $14,246 $4,590 $9,837 Guiding Benefits Good Per Youth Choices $7,605 $687 $14,426 $6,918 Multi-D Reduced Treat. crime Foster Care $26,748 $2,459 $3,957$24,290 Intensive Increased Juv. high Supervision school graduation $0 $1,482 $10,320 -$1,482 Reduced K-12 grade repetition $150 Cost Per Youth Benefits Per Dollar of Cost $4,590 $ of 10

32 But Prevention approaches that do not work or have not been evaluated have been more widely used than those shown to be effective. (Gottfredson & Gottfredson, 2002, Hallfors et al 2001, Ringwalt et al., 2002.)

33 Empowering Communities to Prevent Youth Violence n Youths in different neighborhoods and communities are exposed to different levels of risk and protection.

34 Distribution of Risk in a City Neighborhood #2 In su f fic ie nt n um b e r of st u de n ts in this ar e a. No s tuden ts in t his a re a. Neighborhood #1 Neighborhood #3 John A. Pollard, P h.d. Developmental Research and Pr ograms

35 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Ma Madison d o n Mid Middle d Sc School h o o l Ris Risk k Pro Profile f 8 8 t h th Grade d e Community Family School Peer-Individual Survey Participation Rate 2002: 87.4% Community Disorganization Laws and Norms Favorable to Drug Use Perceived Availability of Drugs Perceived Availability of Handguns Poor Family Management Family Conflict Family History of Antisocial Behavior Parental Attitudes Favorable Towards Drug Use Parental Attitudes Favorable to Antisocial Behavior Academic Failure Low Commitment to School Rebelliousness Early Problem Behavior Early Initiation of Drug Use Favorable Attitudes Toward Antisocial Behavior Favorable Attitudes Toward Drug Use Low Perceived Risks of Drug Use Friends' Use of Drugs Sensation Seeking Rewards for Antisocial Involvement Overall Risk School 2002 District 2002 Estimated National Value Low Neighborhood Attachment Pe rce n t A t Ris k

36 Friends' Use of Drugs Sensation Seeking Rewards for Antisocial Involvement Overall Risk 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% N o v Nova a Hig High h Sc School h o o l Ris Risk k Pro Profile f t h th Grade d e Community Family School Peer-Individual Survey Participation Rate 2002: 79.7% Peer-Individual School 2002 District 2002 Estimated National Value Community Disorganization Laws and Norms Favorable to Drug Use Perceived Availability of Drugs Perceived Availability of Handguns Poor Family Management Family Conflict Family History of Antisocial Behavior Parental Attitudes Favorable Towards Drug Use Parental Attitudes Favorable to Antisocial Behavior **Academic Failure Low Commitment to School Rebelliousness Early Problem Behavior Early Initiation of Drug Use Favorable Attitudes Toward Antisocial Behavior Favorable Attitudes Toward Drug Use Low Perceived Risks of Drug Use Low Neighborhood Attachment Pe rce n t A t Ris k

37 The Goal for Community Prevention To identify and address those risk factors that are most prevalent and those protective factors that are most depressed with tested and effective policies and programs.

38 Challenges for Community Prevention n To identify the community s profile of risk and protection. n To address elevated risks and low protection with tested and effective preventive actions. n To evaluate outcomes to insure desired effects are achieved in the community.

39 The Communities That Care Process Build Capacity Monitor and Evaluate Creating Communities That Care Assess Risk Implement Effective Programs Create a Plan

40 100% 90% 80% Ma d is o n Mid d le Sc h o o l Ris k Pro f ile 8 t h Gra d e Community Family School Peer-Individual Survey Participation Rate 2002: 87.4% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% Pe rce n t A t Ris k 10% 0% Low Neighborhood Attachment Community Disorganization Laws and Norms Favorable to Drug Use Perceived Availability of Drugs Perceived Availability of Handguns Poor Family Management Family Conflict Family History of Antisocial Behavior Parental Attitudes Favorable Towards Drug Use Parental Attitudes Favorable to Antisocial Behavior Academic Failure Low Commitment to School Rebelliousness Early Problem Behavior Early Initiation of Drug Use Favorable Attitudes Toward Antisocial Behavior Favorable Attitudes Toward Drug Use Low Perceived Risks of Drug Use Friends' Use of Drugs Sensation Seeking Rewards for Antisocial Involvement Overall Risk School 2002 District 2002 Estimated National Value Diffusion Consortium Project Social Development Research Group, University of Washington

41 Addressing Barriers with Effective Action Factor Addressed Family Management Problems Program Strategy Prenatal/Infancy Programs Early Childhood Education Developmental Period prenatal Parent Training prenatal-14 Family Therapy 6-14 Diffusion Consortium Project Social Development Research Group, University of Washington

42 Effective Training for Middle School Parents Middle School Parents Guiding Good Choices (Spoth et al., 1998) Adolescent Transitions Program (Dishion and Andrews, 1995) Parenting Adolescents Wisely (Gordon et al., 1998) Creating Lasting Connections (Johnson et al., 1996) Strengthening Families 10 to 14 Program (Spoth, 1998) Focus on Families (Catalano et al., 1999; 1997) Diffusion Consortium Project Social Development Research Group, University of Washington

43 An Ongoing Process Build Capacity Monitor and Evaluate Creating Communities That Care Assess Needs Implement Effective Programs Create a Plan

44 The Communities That Care Prevention Operating System is available at: preventionplatform.samhsa.gov/

45 Summary and Implications Organizations concerned with violence and health and behavior problems of youth should: n collect epidemiologic data on levels of risk and protective factors to focus community action on the most elevated risks. n collaborate to strengthen protection and reduce shared risks for these problems.

46 Summary and Implications Tested and effective policies and programs for preventing youth violence have been identified. n Consider using these approaches in developing countries. n Support rigorous evaluation of these approaches in these new contexts.

47 Preventing Youth Violence in the US: Implications for Developing Countries J. David Hawkins, Ph.D. Endowed Professor of Prevention Social Development Research Group School of Social Work University of Washington