2015 Annual results. Investor presentation. Follow us on

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1 2015 Annual results Investor presentation Follow us on

2 Contents Highlights Premiums and portfolio 9 Claims 14 Investment, capital and targets 17 For new investors 23 Appendix 34 Disclaimer Certain statements in this presentation are based on the beliefs of our management as well as assumptions made by and information currently available to the management. Forwardlooking statements (other than statements of historical fact) regarding our future results of operations, financial condition, cash flows, business strategy, plans and future objectives can generally be identified by terminology such as targets, believes, expects, aims, intends, plans, seeks, will, may, anticipates, continues or similar expressions. A number of different factors may cause the actual performance to deviate significantly from the forward-looking statements in this presentation including but not limited to general economic developments, changes in the competitive environment, developments in the financial markets, extraordinary events such as natural disasters or terrorist attacks, changes in legislation or case law and reinsurance. We urge you to read our annual report available on tryg.com for a discussion of some of the factors that could affect our future performance and the industry in which we operate. Should one or more of these risks or uncertainties materialise or should any underlying assumptions prove to be incorrect, our actual financial condition or results of operations could materially differ from that described herein as anticipated, believed, estimated or expected. We are not under any duty to update any of the forward-looking statements or to conform such statements to actual results, except as may be required by law. 2

3 Financial highlights 2015 DPS of 6.0 for the FY and buy backs of DKK 1bn in 2016 DPS growth in line with our aim Extraordinary buy backs of DKK 1bn in 2016 Total yield approx. 7% on share price end of 2015 Solvency II ratio (int. model) as per 1 Jan 176 including Skandia s book and H dividend Approx. DKK 1bn of additional sub-debt capacity DKK Dividend, buy back & total yield % 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Technical result of DKK 2,423m (DKK 3,032m) One-off costs, high weather claims & currencies development weighed negatively but also underlying claims inflation to be offset by price increases in Weather and large claims DKK 208m higher than in 2014 FY COR of 86.8 vs 84.2 in 2014 Cash dividend Extraordinary buy back Total yield (RHS) Technical result (DKKm) 3,032 2,423 ROE of 18.9% (23.0%) impacted by investment loss, one-off costs, high winter claims & currencies move. ROE Expense ratio of 14.9, adjusted for one-off costs, in line with our 15.0 target for Premiums fall by 0.8% (-1.1%) in local currencies

4 Financial highlights Q Less satisfactory technical result Pre-tax profit of DKK 704m (DKK 768m) impacted by: Lower technical result of DKK 522m (DKK 775m) impacted by high weather claims and negative currencies movements. Positive investment result of DKK 201m (DKK 13m) boosted by a good return on the equities portfolio. Pre-tax profit (DKKm) Q Q Technical result of DKK 522m (DKK 775m) Deterioration primarily driven by high weather claims and currencies impact. Underlying claims inflation calls for price increases. Combined ratio of 88.4 vs 83.7 in Q Combined ratio Premiums fall by 1.6% in local currencies (-0.1%) Private lines up 1.1% while drop in Corporate and mostly Commercial weigh negatively on Group figures. Q Q Expense ratio Expense ratio of 14.2 (14.9) impacted by savings initiatives but also quarterly fluctuations. Q Q

5 Customer highlights Q NPS doubled since CMD, 2017 target already met New health care insurance launched in Denmark including a prevention app TrygHealth. The app provides access to a medical hotline via mobile video conferencing. NPS New car product Moderna Smart launched in Sweden. The price of the car insurance is differentiated depending on the driver s driving style, recorded by an app. Indoor climate card, a new claims preventative initiative launched including a damp indicator, which measures the temperature and air humidity in a room. 11 CMD 2014 Q Target 2017 Customers with 3 products (%) New organisational structure as of 1 January Removing one management level reporting to Executive Board and creating 10 national business areas supports faster decision making. CMD 2014 Q Target 2017 Retention rate CMD 2014 Q Target

6 Key figures Q4/FY DKKm Q Q FY 2015 FY 2014 Gross premium income 4,393 4,646 17,977 18,652 Gross claims -2,988-2,976-13,562-12,650 Gross expenses ,720-2,689 Technical result ,423 3,032 Return on investment after technical interest Profit/loss before tax ,327 3,302 Profit/loss ,981 2,557 Claims ratio, net of reinsurance Gross expense ratio Combined ratio

7 Efficiency programme, DKK 47m achieved in Q4 Programme deliver as planned with target to achieve savings of DKK 750m over 3 years. Efficiency programme up until 2017 (DKKm) Old programme New programme Lower 2015 savings than in Claims initiatives: Increased collection from third parties responsible for causing a claim Cash payment through In4mo system Q M Expense initiatives: Outsourcing Accounting Reorganisation of Agriculture & Small Commercial division Digital communication Achieved Target 7

8 Expense ratio improved before one-off Expense ratio improved 0.7 pp. to 14.2 in Q4 and reached 14.9% for the FY excluding Q3 one-off costs. Expense ratio One-off provisioning of DKK 120m in Q3 related to efficiency programme. Efficiency programme delivered savings of DKK 60m for the FY related to: Outsourcing within Finance and IT Commercial reorganisation Reduction in FTE by 240 during Q Q Adjusted for one-off effects FTE - Development Nominal costs in business areas 4,076 3,913 3,703 3,599 3, Private Commercial Corporate Sweden Q Q

9 Premiums and portfolio

10 Positive topline development in Private Gross earned premiums decreased by 1.6% (-0.1%) in local currencies driven by: Private trend helped by lower rebates but also improved growth and retention in Denmark. Commercial trend reflects a structural challenge with too low sales compared to current retention level. Corporate impacted by cancellation of some large accounts, profitability is targeted ahead of growth. Gross earned premiums development (Local currencies) DKKm Q Q Local currencies Q Local currencies Q Private 2,172 2, % -0.2% Commercial 970 1, % -1.8% Corporate 949 1, % 1.5% Sweden % 1.6% Group 4,393 4, % -0.1% Q Q

11 Less satisfactory technical result Group (DKKm) Private, DK & NO (DKKm) Commercial, DK & NO (DKKm) Q Q Q Q Corporate (DKKm) Sweden (DKKm) Q Q Q Q Q Q

12 Private - average premiums - DK profitability strong but competition increasing House insurance average premium (index 2011 = 100) Average premiums increase Y/Y -1.0% 0.6% (Q3-1.0%) (Q3 0.9%) NO DK NO: price increases from July DK: changed selection reduces average price, price increases starting Motor insurance average premium (index 2011 = 100) Average premiums increase Y/Y -2.6% 0.8% (Q3-2.6%) (Q3 0.5%) NO DK 2.6% decrease y/y driven by: smaller cars safer cars DK Higher price on new motor tariff DK will mitigate the drop in average premium Profitability still very strong on motor 12

13 Customer retention Private 92% 90% 88% 86% 84% 82% DK NO Customer retention in Denmark at highest level since Q Slight improvement in Norway 92% 90% 88% 86% 84% 82% Commercial DK NO Modest fall in Denmark Retention decreased in Norway impacted by economic situation 13

14 Claims

15 Increase in underlying claims ratio, net Group Private (DK & NO) Commercial (DK & NO) ,5 Q Q Q Q Corporate Sweden Q Q Q Q Q Q Underlying development is adjusted for large claims, weather claims, run-off and interest. 15

16 Large claims, weather claims and run-off Large claims, net DKKm Expected annual Weather claims, net DKKm Expected annual level 2016: DKK 550m level 2016: DKK 500m Q Q Q Q Claims reserves discounting rate (%) Run-off net, effect on combined ratio (%) Q Q Q Q

17 Investment, capital and targets

18 Investment return low risk remains key Portfolio (DKK 38.9bn) Free portfolio return Q (%) Bonds/deposits 13.0% Inv. Property 5.3% EM 1.0% HY 2.2% Equities 6.2% Bonds/deposits 3.3% Free 10.7bn 28% Match 28.1bn 72% Cov. Bonds 69.0% Geographical exposure (%) High yield corporate bonds (DKK 0.9bn) Utilities 3% Other 3% Finance 10% Bonds Equity HY & EM Inv. Property Nordics EU ex Nordics North America EM/Other Rating (%) Energy (mostly oil) 7% Industrials 77% AAA AA-A BBB-B 18 Match Free Total

19 Solvency position Q Capital Q4 2015, DKKm Solvency II internal model ratio was 154 at YE (Q3 2015: 159) and was impacted by: Result Q Executed share buy back in Q Deduction of 60% of 2015 dividend 6,193 9,525 Acquisition of Swedish child insurance portfolio implies an impact of DKK m, but is not included in Q4 pending regulatory approval. Capital requirement Available capital Solvency II recent developments: Equity and subordinate loan, DKKm Danish FSA approved Tryg s internal model in November , ,235 Norwegian FSA is likely to finalise the decision on the Natural Perils pool treatment at the beginning of It is expected that this will be considered Tier 2 capital. Q Q Equity Subordinated loan capital 19

20 Solvency II 176 as per 1 Jan 2016 Solvency II ratio development 155% 151% 159% 154% 176% Solvency II ratio (internal 176 as per 1 Jan 2016 up from 154 at year-end 2015, this includes the recent Skandia s child insurance acquisition and the H dividend. The capital base benefits from the inclusion of the expected future profits of DKK 600m, while the change in the discounting curve has a negative impact of DKK 200m. 165% 160% 155% 150% 145% 140% 135% 130% Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Primo 2016 Solvency II ratio sensitivities The capital requirement falls by some DKK 1.2bn due to the inclusion of a deferred tax asset. Solvency Capital requirement of DKK 5.5bn at start of 2016, Tryg has additional subordinated debt capacity of approx. DKK 1bn as some of current subordinated debt is grandfathered to Tier 1. The additional subordinated debt capacity is based on the assumption that the Natural perils pool will be Tier 2 capital. The solvency ratio displays highest sensitivities to credit spreads and property prices, lowest sensitivities to equities and interest rates. More details in our Solvency II newsletter. 20

21 Targets and outlook Efficiency programme proceeds as planned. Members bonus from spring topline growth between 0%-2% (local currencies) 2016 expected tax rate 21% Markets remain very competitive Price increases to offset claims inflation High focus on capital repatriation ROE after tax (%) Financial targets 40 ROE after tax = 20% 21% Combined ratio Expense ratio < 15* 14 * Excl. One-off effects 20 Customer targets Net Promoter Score (NPS) + 100% 10 Retention rate Customers 3 products** + 1 pp + 5 pp 0 ** Private (DK & NO) 21

22 It is important to know your investment case Do you know the only thing that gives me pleasure? It s to see my dividends coming in. John D. Rockefeller 22

23 For new investors

24 Why invest in Tryg? Only pure non-life group (YE 2014 data) High insurance penetration in the Nordics Premiums per capita (USD), % 150% 100% 2,000 1,722 1,716 1,617 1,350 1,185 50% 1, % -50% -100% 0 Non-life Life Banking Other Motor combined ratios Nordics vs international Tryg is a dividend stock 120% 110% 100% 90% 80% 10% 8% 6% 4% 9.20% 8.30% 6.60% 6.90% 70% 2% 60% UK Germany Italy Denmark Norway 0% Total yield (dividend and buy backs / mkt cap) at year end 24

25 Tryg at a glance I Tryg goes back to 18th century. Very strong brand position especially in Denmark. Non-life insurance in Denmark, Norway and Sweden. Approx. 80% retail business. Retention rate - Private 92% 90% 88% 86% 84% 82% DK NO Norway Market position: #3 Market share: 13.5% CR in 2015: 87.9 Sweden Market position: #5 Market share: 3.0% CR in 2015: 82.7 Gross premium split by products Percentage Motor Workers' comp Health & accident Liability Fire & property - private Fire & property - comm. Other 92% 90% 88% 86% 84% Retention rate - Commercial DK NO Denmark Market position: #1 Market share: 18.0% CR in 2015: 85.2 Business split Private 82% Percentage 56 Commercial 22 Corporate 25

26 DKK Tryg at a glance II 4.2 Shareholder remuneration since IPO New dividend policy Cash dividend Ordinary buy back Extraordinary buy back Shareholder performance since IPO Tryg incl. dividend Euro Insurance index Low risk investment portfolio Standard deviation % 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Latest acquisitions: 2015 Skandia s child insurance in Sweden Securator 2014 Tryg acquires pet insurance in Sweden 2014 Renewal right for Codan s agricultural portfolio Shareholder breakdown Danish institutional Non-Danish institutional 14 Percentage 60 Strengthening of brand value 26 Smaller shareholders 9

27 Tryg s equity story Leading Scandinavian insurer with strong track record Financial targets 2017 Customer targets 2017 Low risk and high returns ROE: 21% Combined ratio: 87% NPS +100% Retention rate +1 pp Customer care worth recommending Expense ratio: 14% 3 products +5 pp Matching assets and liabilities Low risk investment portfolio Dividend policy Aiming for a nominal stable increasing dividend Pay-out ratio of 60% to 90% (secondary) Extraordinary buybacks to further adjust the capital structure 90% first contact resolution Annual coverage check Leading in efficiency Next level pricing Efficiency programme of DKK 750m Claims procurement 25% of tariffs better than peers in 2017 Differentiated product offering Reducing expense level Long term profitable growth and attractive shareholder value creation 27

28 Things that you may not know Motor insurance prices relatively similar in DK and the UK but cost of the insured good (the car) substantially higher in DK driven by the registration tax for passenger cars (100%-150% of taxable value on new vehicles approximately). Motor insurance remains a highly attractive business in Scandinavia unlike many European countries. In Oslo, it costs approximately NOK 5,000 per month to hire a dog walker for 5 weekly walks, each walk is minimum 60 minutes. In Sweden it is illegal to leave a dog home alone more than six hours, the dog has to be out at least every six hours during the day. Pet insurance premiums totalled SEK 3.3bn at the end of September 2015 in Sweden but that includes horses as well. Tryg believes that Pet insurance remains an attractive growth segment. Child insurance is an important product in Sweden with total market premiums above SEK 2.5bn, the same product is virtually non-existent in Denmark and Norway. We believe this will gradually change and plan to leverage on our recent Skandia child insurance acquisition. In 2014, Tryg bought Securator reinforcing its leading position in the Nordic market for product and extended warranty insurance, a market which is estimated at more than DKK 2bn and expected to continue the growth in coming years. 28

29 Things that you may not remember Our maximum annual net exposure to a single large Property claim is DKK 100m which falls to DKK 75m in case of a second event and DKK 50m in case of a third/fourth event, maximum exposure is DKK 25m thereafter. This is based on our general reinsurance programme. Our maximum net exposure for weather claims is DKK 150m per event. The upper limit of the programme is DKK 5.75bn, which is statistically sufficient to cover at least a 250-year event. We have bought an additional horizontal reinsurance programme which will cover any weather claims in excess of DKK 300m up to DKK 600m. Weather claims have to be at least DKK 20m to end in the horizontal agreement. 29

30 Structure of the Nordic insurance market Nordic EUR 25.7bn (as at Q4-2014) Denmark DKK 52.0bn/EUR 7.0bn (as at Q3-2014) Percentage Tryg Topdanmark If Codan Gjensidige 30.8 Percentage Tryg Topdanmark If Codan Gjensidige Länsforsikringar Other Alm. Brand Other Norway NOK 55.8bn/EUR 6.3bn (as at Q3-2015) Sweden SEK 73.0bn/EUR 7.8bn (as at Q3-2015) Tryg If Percentage 22.1 Gjensidige Sparebank Other Percentage Moderna (Tryg) If Trygg-Hansa (Codan) Gjensidige Länsforsikringar Folksam Other

31 Distribution of new sales 2015 Denmark Norway 14 6 Own sales Own sales 29 Percentage 57 Affinity Nordea 38 Percentage 44 Car dealers Affinity Nordea 12 Sweden Corporate 15 Own sales 31 Percentage 51 External partners Online & others 55 Percentage 45 Own sales Brokers Atlantica/Bilsport MC 3 31

32 Combined ratio performance 110 Premium hikes Premium hikes Efficiency programme Customer and efficiency focus Smaller adjustments price increases of DKK 2.1bn implemented. Reduced combined ratio from 107 to price increases will improve underlying combined ratio operational focus with target to cut expenses and claims costs by DKK 1bn in total New efficiency programme of DKK 750m launched. *IFRS from Previous years are Danish GAAP. Data before 2009 is not corrected for the sale of Marine Hull business, and Finland before

33 Key figures and consensus Consensus DKKm Gross premium income 19,948 20,314 19,504 18,652 17,977 17,863 18,075 18,375 Technical result 1,572 2,492 2,496 3,032 2,423 2,642 2,825 2,855 Investment income, net Pre-tax profit 1,603 3,017 2,993 3,302 2,327 2,599 2,950 2,956 Net income 1,140 2,208 2,369 2,557 1,981 2,027 2,312 2,316 Combined ratio Expense ratio (*) 15.3(**) Earnings per share Dividend per share Share buy back ,000 1,000 1, & 2017 is based on 12 estimates and 2018 is based on 7 estimates after Q * 15.3 excluding one-off, ** 14.9 excluding one-off

34 Appendix Follow us on

35 Group Gross premiums DKKm GEP (LHS) 21,000 20,000 19,000 18,000 17,000 16,000 15,000 Local currency (RHS) % Combined ratio Claims ratio, net of reinsurance Expense ratio

36 Private Gross premiums DKKm GEP (LHS) 10,500 10,000 9,500 9,000 8,500 8,000 7,500 7,000 Local currency (RHS) % Combined ratio Claims ratio, net of reinsurance Expense ratio

37 Commercial DKKm 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 Gross premiums GEP (LHS) Local currency (RHS) % Combined ratio Claims ratio, net of reinsurance Expense ratio

38 Corporate DKKm 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 Gross premiums GEP (LHS) Local currency (RHS) % Combined ratio Claims ratio, net of reinsurance Expense ratio

39 Sweden DKKm 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Gross premiums GEP (LHS) Local currency (RHS) % Combined ratio Claims ratio, net of reinsurance Expense ratio

40 Geographical segments Denmark Sweden DKKm Q Q FY 2015 FY 2014 DKKm Q Q FY 2015 FY 2014 Gross premiums earned 2,330 2,346 9,346 9,361 Technical result Key ratios: ,371 1,510 Gross claims ratio Result of ceded business Gross expense ratio Combined ratio Gross premiums earned ,894 1,975 Technical result Key ratios: Gross claims ratio Result of ceded business Gross expense ratio Combined ratio Norway DKKm Q Q FY 2015 FY 2014 Gross premiums earned 1,611 1,839 6,766 7,337 Technical result Key ratios: ,478 Gross claims ratio Result of ceded business Gross expense ratio Combined ratio

41 Economic key figures Denmark % Sweden % GDP Growth Inflation Unemployment GDP Growth Inflation Unemployment Current account balance in % of GDP Current account balance in % of GDP Budget balance in % of GDP Public debt in % of GDP Budget balance in % of GDP Public debt in % of GDP Norway % GDP Growth (mainland) Inflation Unemployment Current account balance in % of GDP Budget balance in % of GDP Public debt in % of GDP Source: Economic Outlook, Nordea Markets, December