Alm. Brand A/S Q Conference Call
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1 Alm. Brand A/S Q Conference Call 1
2 Non-life 4th largest in DK 500,000 customers* 200,000 Plus customers* Banking 65,000 customers* Supports non-life Life and pension 80,000 customers* Supports non-life Double-customers 25,000* Growth: 19% * Number of households/units Alm. Brand Three business areas Alm. Brand Bank Banking operations Holding company Alm. Brand A/S Alm. Brand Liv og Pension Life and Pension operations Alm. Brand Forsikring We take care of our customers Non-life operations Copenhagen Re Reinsurance in run off 2
3 Alm. Brand Highlights Q Highly unsatisfactory loss af DKK 220m Writedowns of DKK 337m in bank Very satisfactory investment performance Increasing premium level initiated New strategy in bank 3
4 Alm. Brand Non-life Highlights Q Result: DKK 42m profit Q1-Q3: DKK 231m Total premiums: DKK 1.2bn Q1-Q3: DKK 3.5bn CR: 99.1 (goal 93) Q1-Q3: 98.4 Expense ratio: 17.8% Q1-Q3: 19.2% 500,000 customers Non-life insurance 4
5 Mio.kr Alm. Brand Non-life Expenses for major claims Q1- Q Expense (2009 prices) Anticipated expense New tariffs and terms Claims-limiting activities 5
6 DKKm Alm. Brand Non-life Weather claims Anatol 2,2 mia. Erwin 833 mio Q1- Q Expense (2009 prices) Expense (Anatol and Erwin) Anticipated expense Several lighting claims Tendency towards heavier weather especially rain => Increase in premiums 6
7 Alm. Brand Non-life Claims frequency *) Q Q Q Q * Excluding major and weather claims 7
8 Good investment return Lower costs Higher claims ratio Expensive major claims Burglaries are very expensive Increase in premiums New claims-limiting activities Discounting effect: 1.0% higher claims ratio Q1-Q3: 1.5% Weaker growth because of economic recession Alm. Brand Non-life Impact on performance Pct Combined ratio 88,1 91,4 96,5 95,8 98,4 3,6 2,8 4,1 2,9 3,7 19,0 19,2 19,6 19,4 20,5 63,9 69,0 73,9 72,3 76, Q1-Q Q1-Q Claims Operating expenses Net reinsurance
9 Alm. Brand Non-life Combined ratio Combined ratio ex. weather claims and major claims Major claims Q1-Q ,0 8,0 Q1-Q ,5 10,4 Weather claims ,7 3,0 Run-off result* ,1-1,5 Combined ratio * A negative run-off result equals a run-off gain 95,8 98,4 9
10 Alm. Brand Non-life CR to be improved 2007-Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q3 Alm. Brand Topdanmark Tryg (P&E DK) Premium increases of DKK 200m. Claims limiting activities 10 CoR
11 Alm. Brand Banking Highlights Q Result: DKK 312m loss Before writedowns: DKK 25m profit Result Q1-Q3: DKK 1,309m loss Before writedowns DKK 91m profit Interest margin: 2.1% Net interest up by 10% 65,000 customers 25,000 Double-customers Solvency: 16.5 % Core Capital: 11.0 % Banking 11
12 Mio.kr Alm. Brand Banking Deposits and loans Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Reduced loans and advances New strategy Deposits Loans 2,7 2,5 2,3 2,1 1,9 1,7 2,3 Interest margin p.a. 2,0 1,8 1,8 1,7 1,9 2,1 Fixed interest deposits Certain loans track Danmarks Nationalbank Deposits in Nationalbanken at low interest 1, Q Q Q Interest margin Ytd
13 Alm. Brand - Banking Loan portfolio and credit losses Lending 30 September 2009 DKKm Losses and writedowns DKKm Q3 Losses and writedowns DKKm YTD Loss rate % Q3 Loss rate % YTD Retail lending 3, % 0.4% Car finance 1, % 1.9% Agriculture 1, % 5.6% Other commercial lending 1, % 2.8% Security financing 4, % 7.3% Lending to subsidiaries 1, % 0.0% Investment properties 1, % 19.0% Residential mortgage deeds % 5.5% Commercial mortgage deeds % 36.5% Property development projects % 76.3% Private Contingency Association Total 15, , % 8.6% 13
14 Alm. Brand - Banking Loan portfolio and credit losses Lending 30 September 2009 DKKm Losses and writedowns DKKm Q3 Losses and writedowns DKKm YTD Loss rate % Q3 Loss rate % YTD Retail lending 3, % 0.4% Car finance 1, % 1.9% Agriculture 1, % 5.6% Other commercial lending 1, % 2.8% Security financing 4, % 7.3% Lending to subsidiaries 1, % 0.0% Investment properties 1, % 19.0% Residential mortgage deeds % 5.5% Commercial mortgage deeds % 36.5% Property development projects % 76.3% Private Contingency Association Total 15, , % 8.6% 14
15 Alm. Brand - Banking Loan portfolio and credit losses Lending 30 September 2009 DKKm Losses and writedowns DKKm Q3 Losses and writedowns DKKm YTD Loss rate % Q3 Loss rate % YTD Retail lending 3, % 0.4% Car finance 1, % 1.9% Agriculture 1, % 5.6% Other commercial lending 1, % 2.8% Security financing 4, % 7.3% Lending to subsidiaries 1, % 0.0% Investment properties 1, % 19.0% Residential mortgage deeds % 5.5% Commercial mortgage deeds % 36.5% Property development projects % 76.3% Private Contingency Association Total 15, , % 8.6% 15
16 Alm. Brand - Banking Loan portfolio and credit losses Lending 30 September 2009 DKKm Losses and writedowns DKKm Q3 Losses and writedowns DKKm YTD Loss rate % Q3 Loss rate % YTD Retail lending 3, % 0.4% Car finance 1, % 1.9% Agriculture 1, % 5.6% Other commercial lending 1, % 2.8% Security financing 4, % 7.3% Lending to subsidiaries 1, % 0.0% Investment properties 1, % 19.0% Residential mortgage deeds % 5.5% Commercial mortgage deeds % 36.5% Property development projects % 76.3% Private Contingency Association Total 15, , % 8.6% 16
17 Alm. Brand Banking Writedowns Especially on corporate mortgage deeds and a single property development project Increasing contributions to Private Contingency Association 10,00% 9,00% 8,00% 7,00% 6,00% 5,00% Writedowns p.a. 8,60% 9,0% 8,0% 7,0% 6,0% 5,0% Accumulated writedown ratio 8,27% 4,00% 4,0% 3,00% 2,00% 1,00% 0,00% -1,00% 1,75% -0,17% -0,27% Q1-Q ,0% 2,0% 1,0% 0,0% 2,25% 1,15% 0,66% Q1-Q Excluding credit-related value adjustments on mortgage 17
18 Alm. Brand Banking Funding situation Long cheap funding DKK 1,3bn paid back in September Relative growth in deposits Capital from Alm. Brand A/S of DKK 300m Alm. Brand converts DKK 250m of liable capital into share capital Received DKK 856m through the Second Bank Package Procurement of capital Repayment structure for loans issued by Alm. Brand Bank Subordinated 4% Millions DKK 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 Long term funding 35% Deposits, retail 51% Deposits, w holesale 10% 18
19 Alm. Brand Banking New strategy (1) Discontinued activities Investment properties Mortgage deeds Trading and investments Loans to property development projects Corporate finance Leasing and loans through car dealers 19
20 Alm. Brand Banking New strategy (2) Continued activities Private, SME and agriculture Deposits/loans Investments Leasing Fleet Alm. Brand Markets Analysis PM 20
21 Alm. Brand Life and Pension Highlights Q Result: DKK 70m profit Q1-Q3: DKK 107m Collective bonus potential: DKK 120m Shadow account balance: DKK 80 Gross premiums: DKK 136m Growth: -7% Q1-Q3: DKK 466m Provisions: DKK 11.2bn 80,000 customers Life & Pension 21
22 Alm. Brand Life and Pension Investments Q1-Q Very satisfactory performance Very strong investment return 7.2% Low costs => Collective bonus potential: DKK 120m Return on investments (OE) 4.4% Return on investments (customers) 7.2% Bonds etc. 6.1% Equities 26.4% Properties 3.7% Total equity exposure about 10% Rate of interest (customers) p.a. 3.0% 22
23 Copenhagen Re Sold on 29 May 2009 Approved by financial supervisory authorities on 15 October 2009 Actual sale completed Not affecting the expectations for the group as a whole 23
24 Alm. Brand Highlights Still unsatisfactory performance Writedowns has slowed down Many claims Premium increases New strategy for the bank will change scope and costs 24
25 Disclaimer The statements made in this presentation are based on current expectations, estimates and projections made by management. All statements about future financial performance are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those set forth in or implied by the statements. All statements about future financial performance made in this presentation are solely based on information known at the time of the preparation of the last published financial report, and the company assumes no obligation to update these statements, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise." 25
26 Alm. Brand A/S Q Conference Call 26
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