Update on 2014 and strategic priorities. Morgan Stanley 11 th Annual European Financials Conference Torsten Hagen Jørgensen, Group CFO

Transcription

1 Update on 2014 and strategic priorities Morgan Stanley 11 th Annual European Financials Conference Torsten Hagen Jørgensen, Group CFO

2 Disclaimer This presentation contains forward-looking statements that reflect management s current views with respect to certain future events and potential financial performance. Although Nordea believes that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable, no assurance can be given that such expectations will prove to have been correct. Accordingly, results could differ materially from those set out in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. Important factors that may cause such a difference for Nordea include, but are not limited to: (i) the macroeconomic development, (ii) change in the competitive climate, (iii) change in the regulatory environment and other government actions and (iv) change in interest rate and foreign exchange rate levels. This presentation does not imply that Nordea has undertaken to revise these forwardlooking statements, beyond what is required by applicable law or applicable stock exchange regulations if and when circumstances arise that will lead to changes compared to the date when these statements were provided. 2

3 The relationship bank business model has delivered 14 3

4 Nordea business model strength Strong profit generating capacity Average operating income of EUR 9.5bn since 2008 Annual pre-dividend net profit to REA improved to 2.5% in 2014 Annual RoE above 10.5% every year since 2008 Low volatility Very little volatility in earnings from continuing operations since 2008 Lowest net profit of EUR 2.3bn and highest EUR 3.6bn since 2008, profitable every single quarter Average annual operating profit / annual net loan losses => 6.3 times Nordea key characteristics Strong capital generation Strong capital generation CAGR of 13% since

5 2014 Financial results EURm Chg % Net interest income Net fee & commission income Net fair value result Total income* Total income** Total expenses Total expenses** Net loan losses Operating profit Operating profit** Positive underlying income and cost development but significant FX impact Operating profit up +12% and ROE improving despite higher capital and negative FX impact Continued increase in CET1 Return on equity (%)** bps - CET1 capital ratio (%) *** +180 bps - Cost/income ratio (%)** bps - *Includes other income **Excluding non-recurring items: restructuring costs of EUR 190m, non-recurring capital gain of EUR 378m, and charge for impairment of intangible assets of EUR 344m ***Previously estimated Basell III CET 1 ratio 5

6 RoE strong underlying business performance 12.9% +1.9% -1.3% Lending margins Ancillary income Lower costs Volumes Capital increase Interest rates FX Other 11.6% 11.0% Lower loan losses 2013 Business performance External factors 2014 Excluding restructuring charge in Q2/14 and IT impairment in Q3/14 and gain from divestment of Nets in Q3/14 6

7 Nordea confirmed as one of the safest banks globally EXAMPLES OF ISSUANCES DURING Q1/15 A second AT1 issuance - record low spreads A 10 year EUR 1bn senior unsecured at MS+43 bps Tightest priced covered bond issuer at MS-10/-2 bps* * A dual tranche, 5.25 years and 12 years, outside of Germany 7

8 Pro-longed period of low growth and interest rates continued GDP Interest rates FX** 4% 2% 0% -2% Norway Sweden Denmark E* Finland 1 0,8 0,6 0,4 0,2 0 Euribor 3m Stibor 3m Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 1,7 1,5 1,3 1,1 0,9 0,7 EUR/USD (-22%) Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 EUR/RUB (+43%) EUR/NOK (+5%) EUR/SEK (+5%) Only slow recovery and increasing geopolitical risk Only limited volume growth and increasing focus on asset quality EU economy lacks drivers, expansionary monetary policy Pressure on deposit margins, lower funding costs Significant FX impact in 2014 on income and costs Current FX-rates indicate similar negative impact also in 2015 *Nordea estimate **Indexed, =1 8

9 Special attention areas Finland Slight improvement in household and corporate PD s Loan losses at moderate level of 17 bps, down from 20 bps Slow growth but underlying macro conditions are stable Oil 22% of portfolio* Russia 2% of portfolio Credit exposure mainly towards large int l Russian, and Nordic, corporates 86% of credit portfolio in USD or EUR - financing large Russian corporates international operations Loan losses are at low levels limited risk on increased loan losses 2% of portfolio Danish agriculture 2% of portfolio Limited risk of increased loan losses, stress tests performed on customer level Likely negative effect on Norwegian economy, mitigated by lower interest rates, weaker NOK and sovereign oil fund spending Agriculture sector affected by world market price pressure; negative effect on crop, milk and pork prices Polarisation between strong and weak farmers; collective provision of EUR 23m in the quarter *Portfolio of total loans to the public, excluding reverse repurchase agreements 9

10 Cost development is driven by initiatives across the board EURbn ~6% reduction ~0,10 ~0, m ~0,10 ~0,20 ~0,10 ~0,10 ~0, m ~0,10 ~0, Re-investments 2013 Re-investments & cost inflation & cost inflation Distribution & internal Distribution service & Internal services Streamlining and Streamlining IT insourcing & ITinsourcing FX 2014 Re-investments Distribution Re-investments & cost inflation & cost inflation FX 2014 Distribution Streamlining Internal service Streamlining and IT Internal insourcing & IT- services insourcing FX FX 2015E 2015E 10

11 Continued disciplined capital management REA development, EURbn REA efficiency key priorities for Continued REA improvement in line with existing REA program Q4 13 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q

12 Nordea capital considerations Estimated Common Equity Tier 1 Capital Requirement in 2015 (%) Pillar 1 minimum requirement Pillar 1 combined buffer requirement Pillar 2 requirement Total SFSA assessment Current Management buffer 3.0% 2.5% Current assumption ~0.2% 2.0% 0.8% 1.8%* 14.8% 0.9% 15.7% 4.5% Minimum CET1 required Systemic risk buffer Capital conservation buffer Countercycl. buffer (0-2.5%) Systemic risk in P2 Swedish mortgage RW floor Other risks in P2 incl Norwegian RW floor SFSA assessment Current management buffer Nordea 2014 * Based on the Swedish FSA Memorandum on Capital Requirements for Swedish Banks (May 8, 2014) 12

13 Strategic priorities 14

14 Three transforming drivers for the banking industry Balance sheet regulations Operational regulations Digitalisation Not over yet More to come Behaviour changing SIMPLIFICATION 14

15 Simplification will be the lever in our transformation Fewer, more flexible core products Simplification of customer data Investment in new IT platforms 15

16 Nordea strategic priorities Strategic priorities 1 2 Build on global product capabilities and superior Nordic distribution power Leverage on Pan-Nordic platforms and scale opportunities Improved income mix and growth Continued cost efficiency Disciplined capital management 3 Sustain actively managed portfolio with low volatility Stringent risk management 16

17 Retail Banking Household Branch optimisation and cash removal Improved income mix and growth 992 Branch locations Cash locations Increase share of wallet Mortgage growth with stable margins % 695 Strengthen online service, sales and advice Continued cost efficiency Branch optimisation and cash removal -67% 238 Product and service clean-up and simplification Process automation/consolidation IT simplification/develop future platforms for full economies of scale 17

18 Retail Banking Corporate Volume development * Improved income mix and growth Lending REA Increase share of wallet Active customer selection to shift business mix Mitigation of negative interest rates through actions towards Professional depositors -10% -23% Disciplined capital management Improved quality of existing customers (financial strength, collateralisation) Continued improvements of capital management Strengthened risk management models Cross-sales of capital light products * Year-end 2011 compared to year-end

19 Fee & commission income Greenwich Survey* Wholesale Banking CIB and SOO Strong large corporate franchise Improved income mix and growth Nordea Peer 3 50 Peer 2 Peer 4 Peer 5 25 Peer 1 0 (40) Increase share of wallet, customer selection to shift business mix Accelerated shift from lending to capital market financing/syndications Strengthening of advisory value propositions Disciplined capital management +15% Active business selection with focus on profitability Management of low yielding relationships Agency/intermediation role, optimised rating models/airb SOO = Shipping, Oil and Offshore * Share of important relationships (%, y-axis) vs. Quality index score (x-axis) 19

20 WB Capital Markets & Transaction Services C/I ratio of Capital Markets, FY2014* Improved income mix and growth Selective strengthening of international distribution New York equities distribution Improve competence pool in select markets and products Continued cost efficiency Nordea Nordic and International peers Highly cost-efficient operation Acceleration to e-markets New simplified payment platform Further long term efficiencies expected in line with Group Simplification deliveries *Best proxy to Nordea CMP used as benchmark. All ratios calculated in local currencies. 20

21 ROE* in L&P Bp Cost / AuM % Cost / Income in PB Wealth Management Pursuit of scale and profitable growth Improved income mix and growth % Strengthen sales, advisory and service excellence Grow internationally through Distribution Partners Develop digital offerings Leading retirement offering -18% % 12.5% +4.2 Continued cost efficiency Benchmarking with global best practices Scalable and reliable IT platforms Performance culture *External principles 21

22 Update on 2014 and strategic priorities Morgan Stanley 11 th Annual European Financials Conference Torsten Hagen Jørgensen, Group CFO