Commodity Market Monthly

Transcription

1 Commodity Market Monthly Research Department, Commodities Unit July 13, Commodity prices rise 3.1 percent in June, despite a stronger dollar following U.K s decision to leave the European Union. A marginal decrease in metal prices was more than offset by strong increments in energy and agricultural prices. During the first six months (Dec 15 Jun 16), commodity prices increased by 16 percent, with gains recorded in all main indices, led by 21 percent surge in energy Crude Oil Prices ($/barrel) Dubai Brent WTI IMF Commodity Price Indices (5 = ) Non-Energy Total Energy 4 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Crude oil prices rose by 3.7 percent in June, averaging $47.7/bbl, due to seasonal increase in demand and various supply outages. However, oil prices have seen an increase in volatility since UK s referendum, which partly reflects macroeconomic concerns and exchange-rate adjustments. In addition, OPEC oil production in June increased 264 kbd to mbd from the previous month, according to the organization s latest report. 4 2 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Natural gas price in the U.S. surged by 33.5 percent in June, averaging $2.57/mmbtu, due to slow storage refill in the US, and record amount of gas being burned for power generation according to EIA. Coal prices (Australia) increased by 3.8 percent, due to rising demand and China s steep production cuts IMF Commodity Price Indices (5 = ) Metals Agriculture Energy 4 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 1

2 IMF Commodity Price Indices (5 = ) 28 Vegetable Oils & Meal 26 Cereals Beverages Meat Seafood Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Agriculture prices increased 3.2 percent in June although somewhat retrieved in the second half of the month, extending gains for fourth consecutive month. Food and beverages prices rose 4 and 3 percent, respectively, while agricultural raw material prices remained broadly unchanged. Soybeans and corn prices increased 8 and 6 percent, respectively, on lower than anticipated production in South America and improved global demand. Rice prices were up 2 percent in response to weak supply in Asia. Lamb and swine prices increased 7 percent each, partly due to reduced export supplies from the EU. Coffee arabica and robusta prices increased 7 and 2 percent, respectively, following adverse weather in main growing regions. Sugar prices as a whole rose 13 percent on account of lower output in Brazil following heavy rains. Orange prices sharply increased on lower production, and reached its highest level in almost 3 years. Wheat prices fell to the lowest level in 6 years as production prospects improved, particularly in Europe, United States, Russia and the Black Sea region. Palm oil prices decreased amid subdued demand and seasonal recovery in supply in Indonesia and Malaysia. Metals prices slightly fell by.3 percent in June, and stayed near recent levels. Iron ore dropped by 6 percent, as shipments from Port Hedland in Australia surged to a record in June, and port inventories in China rose to the highest point since December 214. In line with China s weak manufacturing data and rising inventories in LME, copper dropped by 1 percent as well. Nickel, on the other hand, rose by 3 percent in June, led by increased global demand and constrained supply from Indonesia. Aluminum also increased by 3 percent, but is still under the pressure of overcapacity, especially from China. Tin increased by 2 percent in June, and zinc surged 8 percent following a reduction in global zinc mine production. June Commodity Prices Changes (percent from previous month) Natural Gas, US Sugar Orange Barley Soybean Meal Tea Soybeans Zinc Lamb Coffee, Arabica Swine Corn Fish (Salmon) Cotton Groundnuts Gasoline Coal, Australia Crude Oil Fish Meal Nickel Aluminum Rice Coffee, Robustas Tin Natural gas, EU Beef Wool, Coarse Cocoa Bananas Lead Shrimp Hides Poultry Wool, Fine Soybeans Oil Wheat Copper Rapeseed Oil Sawnwood Hard Sunflower Oil Uranium Olive Oil Palm Oil Rubber Iron Ore 2

3 Table 1. Market Prices for Non-Fuel and Fuel Commodities Units Q3 215Q4 216Q1 216Q2 May-16 Jun-16 Food Cereals Wheat $/MT Maize $/MT Rice $/MT Barley $/MT Vegetable oils and protein meals Soybeans $/MT Soybean meal $/MT Soybean oil $/MT Palm oil $/MT Fish meal $/MT Sunflower Oil $/MT Olive oil $/MT Groundnuts $/MT Rapeseed oil $/MT Meat Beef cts/lb Lamb cts/lb Swine Meat cts/lb Poultry cts/lb Seafood Fish $/kg Shrimp $/kg Sugar Free market cts/lb United States cts/lb EU cts/lb Bananas $/MT Oranges $/MT Beverages Coffee Other milds cts/lb Robusta cts/lb Cocoa Beans $/MT Tea cts/kg Agricultural raw materials Timber Hardwood Logs 1/ $/M Sawnwood 1/ $/M Softwood Logs 1/ $/M Sawnwood 1/ $/M Cotton cts/lb Wool Fine cts/kg Coarse cts/kg Rubber cts/lb Hides cts/lb / Provisional. 2/ Average Petroleum Spot Price (APSP). Average of U.K. Brent, Dubai, and West Texas Intermediate, equally weighted. 3

4 Table 1. Market Prices for Non-Fuel and Fuel Commodities (Continued) Units Q3 215Q4 216Q1 216Q2 May-16 Jun-16 Metals Copper $/MT Aluminum $/MT Iron Ore $/MT Tin $/MT Nickel $/MT Zinc $/MT Lead $/MT Uranium $/lb Energy Spot Crude 2/ $/bbl U.K. Brent $/bbl Dubai $/bbl West Texas Intermediate $/bbl Natural Gas Russian in Germany $/mmbtu Indonesian in Japan (LNG) $/mmbtu US, domestic market $/mmbtu Coal Australian, export markets $/MT / Provisional. 2/ Average Petroleum Spot Price (APSP). Average of U.K. Brent, Dubai, and West Texas Intermediate, equally weighted. Table 2. Indices of Market Prices for Non-Fuel and Fuel Commodities, (5=, in terms of U.S. dollars) 1/ (weights) 1/ Q3 215Q4 216Q1 216Q2 May-16 Jun-16 All Primary Commodities 2/ Non-Fuel Commodities Agriculture Food Cereals Vegetable oils and protein meals Meat Seafood Beverages Agricultural raw materials 3/ Timber Metals Edibles 4/ Industrial Inputs 5/ Energy 6/ Petroleum 7/ Natural Gas Coal / Weights based on 2-4 average world export earnings. 2/ Non-Fuel Primary Commodities and Energy Index. 3/ Includes Forestry Products. 4/ Edibles comprised of Food and Beverages 5/ Industrial (Non-Fuel) Inputs comprised of Agriculture and Metals 6/ Includes Petroleum, Natural Gas and Coal 7/ Average Petroleum Spot Price (APSP). Average of U.K. Brent, Dubai, and West Texas Intermediate, equally weighted. 4

5 Commodity Prices Movements Monthly (from 5) Daily (from 211) Crude oil ($/bbl) Crude oil ($/bbl) 125 Brent Brent 9 75 WTI 65 WTI Natural Gas ($/mmbtu) 15 Natural Gas ($/mmbtu) Japan Germany 1 1 Germany 5 United States 5 United States Sources: Energy Intelligence;Bloomberg,L.P. Iron Ore ($/ton) Source: Bloomberg, L.P. Iron Ore ($/ton)

6 Monthly (from 5) Daily (from 211) Copper ($/ton) Copper ($/ton) Aluminium ($/ton) Aluminium ($/ton) 2 Nickel ($/ton) Nickel ($/ton)

7 Monthly (from 5) Daily (from 211) Tin ($/ton) Tin ($/ton) Wheat ($/ton) 4 Wheat ($/ton) Corn ($/ton) Corn ($/ton)

8 Monthly (from 5) Daily (from 211) Cocoa ($/ton) Cocoa ($/ton) Coffee (cents/lb) Coffee (cents/lb) Swine (cents/lb) Swine (cents/lb)

9 Monthly (from 5) Daily (from 211) Beef (cents/pound) Beef (cents/lb) Source: Meat & Livestock Australia. Soybeans ($/ton) Cotton (cents/pound) Source: Bloomberg, L.P Soybeans ($/ton) Cotton (cents/lb)

10 Monthly (from 5) Uranium($/lb) Zinc ($/ton) Coal ($/ton) Logs ($/cubic meter) Australia 4 Hard 3 5 South Africa Soft 3 Rubber ($/lb) Wool (cents/kg) Coarse Fine 25 1

11 Monthly (from 5) Rice ($/ton) Bananas ($/ton) Palm Oil ($/ton) Shrimp ($/kg) Sugar (cents/pound) Tea (cents/kg)

12 Gold ($/troy ounce) Daily (from 211) Silver ($/troy ounce) Platinum ($/ounce) Palladium ($/ounce)