Long-term Impact Evaluation of Specialized Sex Offender Probation Programs In Lake, DuPage and Winnebago Counties

Transcription

1 Long-term Impact Evaluation of Specialized Sex Offender Probation Programs In Lake, DuPage and Winnebago Counties Prepared for the The Illinois Criminal Justice Information Authority By: Loretta J. Stalans, Ph.D. Associate Professor of Criminal Justice Loyola University Magnus Seng, Ph.D. Associate Professor of Criminal Justice Loyola University and Paul R. Yarnold, Ph.D. Research Professor of Medicine Section of Emergency Medicine Northwestern University Medical School November 2002

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3 This project was supported by Grant # 99-DB-BX-0017, awarded to the Illinois Criminal Justice Information Authority by the Bureau of Justice Assistance, Office of Justice Programs, U.S. Department of Justice. The Assistant Attorney General, Office of Justice Programs, coordinates the activities of the following program offices and bureaus: Bureau of Justice Assistance, Bureau of Justice Statistics, National Institute of Justice, Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention, and the Office of Victims of Crime. Points of view or opinions contained within this document are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the official position or policies of the U.S. Department of Justice or the Illinois Criminal Justice Information Authority. Printed by the Authority of the State of Illinois, November 2002

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5 Table of Contents Executive Summary I-XXVII I. Introduction 1 A. Evaluations of Probation Programs and Recidivism 3 B. Predictors of Recidivism 5 C. Effectiveness of Treatment 8 II. Methodology for Identifying Groups that are at High-Risk For Recidivism and Treatment Failure 13 III. Long-term Impact Analysis of Lake County 19 A. Defining Characteristics of Specialized Sex Offender Probation Compared to Standard Probation 19 B. Profile of Lake County Grant and Control Samples 25 C. Probation Outcomes for Lake County 45 D. Treatment Outcomes for Lake County 60 E. Identifying High-Risk Groups for Committing New Sex Crimes 77 F. Comparison of Grant and Control Samples on Recidivism Outcomes 91 G. Conclusions and Recommendations 106 IV. Long-term Impact Analysis of DuPage County 113 A. Defining Characteristics of Specialized and Standard Sex Offender Probation 113 B. Profile of DuPage County Grant and Control Samples 118 C. Probation Outcomes for DuPage County 137 D. Treatment Outcomes for DuPage County 156 E. Identifying High-Risk Groups for Committing New Sex Crimes 173 F. Comparison of Grant and Control Samples on Recidivism Outcomes 286 G. Conclusions and Recommendations 200 V. Long-term Impact Analysis of Winnebago County 208 A. Defining Characteristics of Specialized and Standard Sex Offender Probation 208 B. Profile of Winnebago County Grant and Control Samples 213 C. Probation Outcomes for Winnebago County 232 D. Treatment Outcomes for Winnebago County 245 E. Identifying High-Risk Groups for Committing New Sex Crimes 263 F. Comparison of Grant and Control Samples on Recidivism Outcomes 274

6 G. Conclusions and Recommendations 289 VI. Risk Assessment Instruments for Child Molesters 396 A. Risk Assessment of Sexual Recidivism 300 B. Risk Assessment of Violent Recidivism 317 C. Risk Assessment of General Recidivism Among Child Molesters 322 D. Risk Assessment for Serious Noncompliance With Treatment 326 References 330 Appendix A

7 LIST OF TABLES Table III.1: Comparison of Lake County Control and Grant Samples on Court Imposed Special Conditions 24 Table III.2 Comparison of Lake County Grant and Control Group on Risk Factors of Sexual Recidivism Table III.3 Control and Grant Samples in Lake County Compared on Probation Termination Status, Revocations, and Absconding 45 Table III.4 Generalizable Significant Predictors of Whether a VOP was filed 50 Table III.5 Generalizable Significant Predictors of Whether Two or More VOPs were filed in Lake County 54 Table III.6 Generalizable Significant Predictors of Whether Probation Was Terminated Unsatisfactorily in the Lake County Sample 56 Table III.7 Generalizable Significant Predictors of Whether Probation Was Revoked 58 Table III.8. Descriptive Statistics of Therapists Ratings of Sex Offenders Progress in the Last Report in Lake County (N = 26) 63 Table III.9 Summary of Ipsative Statistical Analysis of Participation, Commitment and Responsibility Ratings Lake County 66 Table III.10 Therapist s Average Ratings for 24 Sex Offenders in Treatment in Lake County 67 Table III.11 Descriptive Statistics on Treatment Outcomes for Grant and Control Samples in Lake County 70 Table III.12 Significant Generalizable Predictors of Serious Noncompliance With Treatment in the Entire Sample of Lake County 71 Table III.13 Generalizable Significant Predictors of Satisfactory Completion of Treatment in the Entire Sample of Lake County 75

8 Table III.14 Significant and Generalizable Predictors of New Sex Crimes (Excluding Failure to Register) 78 Table III.15 Generalizable Significant Predictors of Any New Sex Crimes in the Lake County Sample 81 Table III.16 Generalizable and Significant Predictors of New Violent or Sex Crimes in the Entire Sample of Lake County 85 Table III.17 Significant Generalizable Predictors of Committing Any New Crime in the Entire Sample of Lake County Sex Offenders 87 Table III.18 Generalizable Significant Predictors of Committing Two or More New Crimes of Any Type in the Entire Sample of Lake County 89 Table III.19 Recidivism of Grant and Control Sample Offenders as Measured by New Arrests and Time to First Arrest 92 Table III.20 Cox Regressions Estimating Time to First Arrest for New Sexual Recidivism, Violent Recidivism, and General Recidivism in Lake County 100 Table IV.1 Comparison of Probation Conditions in the Standard and Specialized Sex Offender Programs of DuPage County 117 Table IV.2 Comparison of DuPage County Grant and Control Group On Risk Factors of Sexual Recidivism Table IV.3 Control and Grant Samples in DuPage Country Compared on Probation Termination Status, Revocations, and Absconding 140 Table IV.4 Significant and Generalizable Predictors Related to Filing A VOP Using the Entire Sample of DuPage County Cases 141 Table IV.5 Significant and Generalizable Predictors of Having Two Or More VOPs Filed Using the Entire Sample of DuPage County Cases 145

9 Table IV.6 Significant and Generalizable Predictors of Unsatisfactory Termination of Probation Using the Entire Sample of DuPage County Cases 148 Table IV.7 Significant and Generalizable Predictors of Revocation Using the Entire Sample of DuPage County 150 Table IV.8 Descriptive Statistics of Therapists Ratings of Sex Offenders Progress in the Last Report in DuPage County 158 Table IV.9 Summary of Ipsative Statistical Analysis of Participation, Commitment and Responsibility Ratings DuPage County 161 Table IV.10 Therapist s Average Ratings for 24 Sex Offenders in Treatment In DuPage County 163 Table IV.11 Descriptive Statistics on Treatment Outcomes for Grant and Control Samples in DuPage County 165 Table IV.12 Significant Generalizable Predictors of Serious Noncompliance With Treatment in the Entire Sample of DuPage County 166 Table IV.13 Generalizable Significant Predictors of Satisfactory Completion of Treatment in the Entire Sample of DuPage County 169 Table IV.14 Significant and Generalizable Predictors of New Sex Crimes Excluding Failure to Register Using the Entire Sample of DuPage County Cases 174 Table IV.15 Generalizable Significant Predictors of Any New Sex Crimes in the DuPage County Sample 176 Table IV.16 Generalizable and Significant Predictors of New Violent or Sex Crimes in the Entire Sample of DuPage County 179 Table IV.17 Significant Generalizable Predictors of Committing Any New Crime in the Entire Sample of DuPage County Sex Offenders 181

10 Table IV.18 Generalizable Significant Predictors of Committing Two or More New Crimes of Any Type in the Entire Sample of DuPage County 184 Table IV.19 Recidivism of Grant and Control Sample Offenders as Measured by New Arrests and Time to First Arrest 187 Table IV.20 Cox Regression Models Estimating Time to First Arrest for New Sex Crime, Violent Crimes or Any Type of Crime in DuPage County 193 Winnebago County Table V.1 Comparison of Winnebago County Control and Grant Samples on Court Imposed Special Conditions 212 Table V.2 Comparison of Winnebago County Grant and Control Group On Risk Factors of Sexual Recidivism Table V.3 Control and Grant Samples in Winnebago County Compared on Probation Termination Status, Revocations, and Absconding 235 Table V.4 Generalizable Significant Predictors of Whether a VOP was filed 236 Table V.5 Generalizable Significant Predictors of Whether Probation Was Terminated Unsatisfactorily in the Winnebago County Sample 240 Table V.6 Generalizable Significant Predictors of Whether Probation Was Revoked in Winnebago County 243 Table V.7 Descriptive Statistics of Therapists Ratings of Sex Offenders Progress in the Last Report in Winnebago County (N = 57) 247 Table V.8 Summary of Ipsative Statistical Analysis of Participation, Commitment and Responsibility Ratings Winnebago County 250 Table V.9 Therapist s Average Ratings for 64 Sex Offenders in Treatment in Winnebago County 253

11 Table V.10 Descriptive Statistics on Treatment Outcomes for Grant and Control Samples in Winnebago County 256 Table V.11 Significant Generalizable Predictors of Serious Noncompliance With Treatment in the Winnebago County Sample 257 Table V.12 Generalizable Significant Predictors of Satisfactory Completion of Treatment in the Entire Sample of Winnebago County 261 Table V.13 Significant and Generalizable Predictors of Any New Sex Crimes In the Winnebago County Sample 263 Table V.14 Generalizable Significant Predictors of Any New Sex Crimes in the Winnebago County Sample 265 Table V.15 Generalizable and Significant Predictors of New Violent or Sex Crimes in the Winnebago County Sample 267 Table V.16 Generalizable Significant Predictors of Any New Crime In the Winnebago County Sample 270 Table V.17 Generalizable Significant Predictors of At Least Two or More New Crimes of Any Type in the Winnebago County Sample 272 Table V.18 Recidivism of Grant and Control Sample Offenders as Measured by New Arrests and Time to First Arrest 275 Table V.19 Cox Regressions Estimating Time to First Arrest for Sexual, Violent, and General Recidivism in Winnebago County 284 Table V.20 Violent Recidivism Estimates for the Standard and Specialized Programs in Winnebago County 286 Child Molester Sample Table V1.1 Significant and Generalizable Predictors of Sexual Recidivism Excluding Failure to Register Offenses in Child Molesters 302 Table VI.2 Risk Assessment Tool of Sexual Recidivism (RAT-SR) Table VI.3 Significant and Generalizable Predictors of Violent Recidivism Including Sex Crimes in Child Molesters 318

12 Table VI.4 Significant and Generalizable Predictors of General Recidivism In Child Molesters 322 Table VI.5 Significant and Generalizable Predictors of Serious Noncompliance with Treatment in Child Molesters 327 Lake County List of Figures Figure III.1 CTA Model Predicting Whether a VOP was filed 52 Figure III.2 CTA Model Predicting Whether Two or More VOPs were filed 55 Figure III.3 CTA Model Predicting Termination Status as of December, Figure III.4 CTA Model Predicting Whether Probation Was Revoked 60 Figure III.5 CTA Model Predicting Failure at Treatment 74 Figure III.6 CTA Model Predicting Satisfactory Treatment Completion 77 Figure III.7 Admits or Arrested for A New Sex Crime 80 Figure III.8 Prediction of New Arrest for Sex Offense Including Failure to Register 81 Figure III.9 Prediction of New Arrest for Violent or Sex Crime 86 Figure III.10 CTA Model Predicting General Recidivism 88 Figure III.11 CTA Model Predicting Two or More Arrests For Any Crime 91

13 DuPage County Figure IV.1 CTA Model Predicting Whether a VOP was filed 143 Figure IV.2 CTA Model Predicting Whether Two or More VOPs were filed 146 Figure IV.3 CTA Model Predicting Unsatisfactory Termination Of Probation 149 Figure IV.4 CTA Model Predicting Probation Revocation in DuPage County 151 Figure IV.5 CTA Model Predicting Serious Noncompliance with Treatment 168 Figure IV.6 CTA Model Predicting Satisfactory Completion Of Treatment 172 Figure IV.7 CTA Model Predicting New Sex Crime 175 Figure IV.8 CTA Model Predicting New Sex Crimes Including Failure to Register 178 Figure IV.9 CTA Model Predicting New Sex or Violent Crime 180 Figure IV.10 CTA Model Predicting New Crime of Any Type 182 Figure IV.11 CTA Model Predicting Two or More New Crimes Of Any Type 185 Winnebago County Figure V.1 CTA Model Predicting Whether a VOP was filed 238 In Winnebago County Figure V.2 CTA Model Predicting Termination Status As of April, Figure V.3 CTA Model Predicting Whether Probation Was Revoked 244 Figure V.4 CTA Model Predicting Serious Noncompliance with Treatment 259

14 Figure V.5 CTA Model Predicting Satisfactory Treatment Completion 262 Figure V.6 CTA Model Predicting New Sex Crimes In Winnebago County Data 264 Figure V.7 CTA Model Predicting All New Sex Crimes Including Failure to Register In Winnebago County 266 Figure V.8 CTA Model Predicting New Arrest for Violent or Sex Crime 268 Figure V.9 CTA Model Predicting New Arrest for Any Crime 271 Figure V.10 CTA Model Predicting Two or More New Any Crimes 273 Child Molester Sample Figure VI.1 CTA Model Predicting Sexual Recidivism 311 Figure VI.2 CTA Model Predicting Violent Recidivism 320 Figure VI.3 CTA Model Predicting General Recidivism 325

15 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This Executive Summary reports on a study of the long-term impact of specialized sex offender probation programs in DuPage, Lake and Winnebago Counties. A previous study reported on the implementation and short-term impact of these three programs (Seng et al. 2000). The current study explores the impact of these programs comparing recidivism and treatment failure of sex offenders who participated in the specialized sex offender probation program (the grant sample) to recidivism and treatment failure of sex offenders on probation who were not part of the specialized program (the control sample). We obtained information about recidivism from Illinois State Police Rap Sheets supplemented with information from FBI criminal histories, violation of probation petitions, polygraph tests, and therapists bi-monthly treatment reports. Recidivism was defined as new arrests or self-reports of new offenses after the time that they were arrested for the offense that placed them on probation. Sexual recidivism was defined as any new sex crime except arrests for failure to register as a sex offender were not included. Violent recidivism was defined as any new violent or sex crime. General recidivism was defined as a new crime of any type, including misdemeanors such as driving while intoxicated, but other traffic offenses were not included. The specialized programs, especially Lake County, increased its field surveillance and visits to sex offenders homes. This increased surveillance can have two opposing effects. First, increased surveillance may allow probation officers to detect a greater percentage of new crimes that sex offenders commit. For example, probation officers 1

16 may discover child pornography on a sex offender s home computer or may see a sex offender expose himself to a stranger during field surveillance. The higher detection hypothesis predicts that the specialized program will have a higher rate of sexual, violent, and general recidivism than the standard program. By contrast, the second way that increased surveillance may affect sex offenders is to deter them from committing additional crimes due to the fear of being caught and punishment. The deterrence hypothesis predicts that the specialized program will have a lower rate of sexual, violent, and general recidivism than the standard program. These two opposing effects can result in the specialized and standard probation programs having similar recidivism rates. Even if the two programs have identical recidivism rates, this finding does not mean that the specialized program had no impact because the higher detection effect can mask the deterrence effect. The evaluators, thus, are presented with a conundrum. To overcome this conundrum, the evaluators used a deterrence conceptual framework to make predictions about which groups of sex offenders would be deterred or change from the intensive supervision of the specialized programs. Sex offenders can be deterred if they make a rational calculation of the cost (such as a new arrest) and benefits of committing a new crime before they commit the crime. We predicted that mentally ill sex offenders, psychopathic deviants, and sex offenders with sadistic or chronic aggression problems were not rational and thus should show higher rates of recidivism in the specialized program than in the standard program, which supports the higher detection hypothesis. We predicted that sex offenders interested in hands-off sexual offending often consider the cost and benefits of committing a sex crime before they commit the crime and should be deterred by the increased surveillance, which supports 2

17 the deterrence hypothesis. Sex offenders that have already served a term of probation also may be deterred by the increased supervision because they realize that the consequences will be more severe if they are caught committing another crime. Sex offenders that have served a prior probation sentence may realize the severe consequence if they commit additional crimes and those on specialized probation may perceive a higher likelihood of getting caught if they commit a new offense; thus, the specialized program should deter sex offenders that have served prior probation and produce lower sexual, violent, and general recidivism rates than the standard program. Our findings from the implementation study were that each county had successfully implemented a specialized sex offender probation program but in ways unique to each county. Our findings from this long-term impact study mirror this diversity. In general we found that the specialized sex offender program in each county had a positive impact on recidivism for certain groups of sex offenders, and were able to detect higher rates of recidivism for groups of offenders that do not make decisions in a rational manner (e.g., mentally ill offenders). The counties differed in what groups of offenders were affected by the increased surveillance and other conditions of the specialized programs. This Executive Summary presents a comparison of the standard and specialized sex offender program and major findings for each county. We then discuss the overall implications of the study in general and make final recommendations about risk assessment instruments for child molesters. Our analyses focused on examining recidivism and treatment performances within each county with specific attention to differences between the control and grant samples. An additional and important focus 3

18 was identifying groups of offenders in the total sample in each county who were at high risk of recidivism and treatment failure. The Lake County Program The essential differences between the standard and specialized programs in Lake County centered upon specialization, caseload and supervision standards. The Lake County probation department had established a sex offender unit in late 1995 with officers carrying a mixed caseload of regular and sex offender cases. Caseloads averaged approximately 120 cases per officer. The sex offender grant program provided two surveillance officers who were devoted full time to the community supervision and surveillance activities of sex offender cases assigned to probation staff in the sex offender unit. While unit staff continued to carry a mixed caseload, the two surveillance officers handled exclusively sex offender cases. Prior to the specialized sex offender program, the contact standard maintained for sex offenders in Lake County was the Administrative Office of the Illinois Courts (AOIC) standard for maximum supervision of two face-toface contacts per month and one field visit every other month. The specialized program's contact standards were much more demanding, consisting of a required three field contacts per month in addition to two face-to-face office contacts per month. While the Lake County program experienced some difficulty in meeting its demanding contact standards, the program averaged approximately four face-to-face contacts per month, two above the AOIC standard, and more than doubled the AOIC field visit standard of one every other month to reach an average of 1.7 per month. In addition, the specialized program standardized a set of informal sanctions to apply to offenders for noncompliance 4

19 with probation conditions whereas the standard probation program left it up to the discretion of each probation officer. As a result, probation officers in the standard probation program were more likely to resort to the severe sanction of filing a violation of probation petition (VOP), and filed a significantly higher number of VOP petitions than did probation officers in the specialized program. The standard probation and the specialized sex offender programs accepted any offender sentenced to probation and convicted of any misdemeanor or felony offense that was sexual in nature, even if the convicted offense was not a sex crime. The assignment of special conditions for sex offenders in both programs was an essentially informal but effective process under which sex offenders were required to meet a set of special conditions. The treatment under both programs was essentially similar. Participation in sex offender cognitive-behavioral group therapy was mandatory in most cases and there was a formal process of probation officer-treatment provider communication in place for both programs. The research team coded information for 104 offenders in the grant sample and 104 offenders in the control sample. All cases that were sentenced between July 1997 and May 1999 were included in the grant sample. The research team selected control cases from generated lists of sex offenders on standard probation between 1994 and July of All coded information came from probation department case files, except information on criminal history, which was coded from rap sheets obtained from the Illinois State police. The Lake County grant and control samples were found to be similar on the vast majority of demographic, offense, and risk characteristics examined. However, the grant sample was more likely to have at least one prior arrest and one prior 5

20 conviction whereas the control sample showed somewhat lower socio-economic status and a previous history of mental health treatment combined with greater illicit drug use. The amount of time that sex offenders were evaluated for recidivism averaged 34.5 months in the grant sample and 57.6 months for the control sample. Rates of Recidivism After controlling for opportunity and other predictors, the grant and control sample did not differ on rates for sexual recidivism, violent recidivism, or general recidivism. For the entire sample, the average sexual recidivism rate at the mean of the covariates was 4.1% at one year, 9.9% at two years, 16% at three years, 22.6% at 49 months, and 33.3% at five years. A review of 61 studies on sex offender recidivism found an average of 13.4% sexual recidivism within an average follow-up period of four to five years (Hanson & Bussiere, 1998). Though Lake County s rates are somewhat higher, it is important to keep in mind that the higher surveillance increases detect of crimes and that prior studies were less likely to contain exclusively hands-off sex offenders. Moreover, Lake County s rates appear favorable in comparison to a study that tracked sex offenders released from prison; within three years, about half of the offenders had been rearrested for a felony sex crime and 60% had been rearrested for a violent crime (Greenfeld, 1997). Lake County s violent recidivism rates at the mean of the covariates were 6.7% at one year, 15% at 25 months, 21.8% at three years, 31.9% at 49 months, and 39.3% at 62 months. The average rates of general recidivism at the mean of the covariates were 12.2% at one year, 25.8% at two years, 37.5% at three years, 51.1% at four years, and 69.3% at 62 months. 6

21 Specialized Probation And Higher Detection Effect Mentally ill sex offenders had much higher sexual recidivism rates in the specialized program than in the standard program, suggesting that the specialized program was able to detect crimes that typically would not be reported or detected in the standard probation program. Similarly, psychopathic deviant sex offenders or offenders with sadistic personalities also had higher sexual recidivism rates in the specialized program than in the standard program. Mentally ill offenders, psychopathic deviants, and sadistic offenders are unlikely to consider the costs and benefits of offending, and thus are likely to continue with their offending behaviors, irrespective of the intensive community-based supervision. The higher surveillance of the specialized program is a better alternative than standard probation because it is able to catch a higher number of these high-risk offenders when they commit new offenses. Moreover, the specialized program should consider increasing the surveillance of these groups and the courts should consider either placing these offenders in a mental health hospital for a period of time or giving these offenders a jail sentence in addition to their probation sentence. If these offenders cannot be deterred or changed through higher surveillance and jail time, prison seems the only remaining alternative. Specialized Probation and Deterrent Effect Sex offenders that were interested in hands-off offenses (e.g., exhibitionism, voyeurism), even if they also were interested in hands-on sex offending, were less likely to be arrested for a new sex offense in the specialized program than in the standard probation program. In the standard program, sex offenders with an interest in hands off 7

22 sexual offending had a higher rate of sexual recidivism than did exclusively hands-on sex offenders, suggesting that hands-off sex offending is a risk factor associated with sexual recidivism. However, the specialized program was able to deter this high-risk group, and in this program sex offenders with an interest in hands off sexual offending had a lower rate of sexual recidivism than did the exclusively hands-on sex offenders. Sex offenders with an interest in hands off sexual offending also had lower rates of violent and general recidivism in the specialized program than in the standard program. These findings suggest that the specialized sex offender probation program with its higher surveillance and other restrictions contributed to deterring hands-off sex offenders from committing additional sex crimes and exclusively hands-off sex offenders from committing any type of crime. Predictors of Sexual Recidivism Consistent with the literature, objective sexual preference was the strongest predictor of sexual recidivism. Offenders with a sexual preference for children had about an 85% chance of sexual recidivism if they had victimized strangers or acquaintances and only a 29% chance if they had victimized family members. When sexual preference for children was unknown or nonexistent, at least one prior arrest for a misdemeanor crime was the strongest predictor. In addition, single or divorced men with access to children or who completely denied the offense had a moderately high chance of committing a new sex crime. Hands-off offending, mental illness, psychopathic deviancy, and sadistic personality also are high-risk predictors of sexual recidivism. 8

23 Predictors of Violent Recidivism Marital status was the strongest predictor of violent recidivism with single or divorced offenders more likely to commit new offenses. This finding is consistent with the literature. The seven variable CTA model revealed three groups in the highest risk category and one group in the moderately high-risk category. Single or divorced sex offenders were at the highest risk of violent recidivism if: (1) they committed prior property crimes and forced the sexual offense; or (2) they committed prior property crimes and began criminal offending before the age of 18. Single or divorced offenders also were at a moderately high risk if they had been committing sexual offenses for four or more months and were at a low risk if they had been committing sexual offenses for three months or less. Married or separated sex offenders were generally at low risk of general recidivism. Married or separated sex offenders are placed in the high-risk category if they have at least one prior arrest and conviction. Predictors of General Recidivism Offenders were at high risk of general recidivism if they began criminal offending: (1) before the age of 28 and used alcohol; or (2) at the age of 28 or later, had a substance abuse problem, and victimized a family member. Our findings suggest that risk assessment instruments for general recidivism of sex offenders should score five characteristics as high risk factors: (1) age younger than 28 at time of first criminal offending; (2) substance abuse; (3) alcohol use; (4) single marital status; and (5) charged with a misdemeanor crime. Offenders with three of these five characteristics should be 9

24 considered high-risk. In addition, offenders should be considered high risk if they are in one of the two clusters described above. Probation Outcomes The control and grant samples did not differ on the percentage of offenders who terminated probation satisfactorily, the percentage that were revoked or the percentage of offenders who absconded from probation. Offenders had a very high chance of satisfactory termination of probation (92.5% chance) if they had no prior arrests for misdemeanors and expressed great remorse for the offense. Offenders were most likely to be revoked if they were unemployed or part-time employed and used physical force to commit the sex crime. Moreover, data suggest that the Lake County Courts considered new arrests for sex crimes in making revocation decisions, but new arrests alone was not either a necessary nor sufficient reason to revoke an offender s probation. Compliance with Treatment In the specialized sample, N-of-1 analysis of the bi-monthly treatment reports for twenty-six offenders revealed that 7 of the offenders had a significant improvement across time or a significant improvement relative to all sex offenders in the three counties. Overall, 13 of the 26 Lake County sex offenders in the specialized program were classified as responsive to treatment. A significantly higher percentage of grant sex offenders compared to control sex offenders did not have a VOP filed for noncompliance with treatment. This finding may reflect the greater use of administrative sanctions on the part of specialized probation 10