Revival of agriculture in Africa! but:

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1 Revival of agriculture in Africa! but: Which kind of agriculture is best for food security? Michael Brüntrup Hohenheim University, Food Security Centre March 23, Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik

2 Structure 1. Food security concept 2. Agriculture and food security 3. Agriculture in Subsahara Africa (SSA) 4. New opportunities 5. Potentials 6. Necessary measures general some specific issues 2009 Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik 2

3 Food security much more than production Food Security Food availability security exists when Food all access people, at all times, Food utilisation have physical, social and economic access to Intra-household Food sufficient, productionsafe and nutritious food to meet Preparation distribution their dietary Storage, needs processing and food preferences for an active and healthy life. Income and transport Theof four food Health and child care pillars of food security are availability, access, utilization Markets and stability. Water and sanitation The nutritional dimension is integral to the concept of food security Food stability Gender roles Culture Environment Education and knowledge Source: Fanso World (2009) Food own Summit modification Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik 3

4 Food security situation is worst in Sub-Sahara Africa Quelle: World Bank (WDR 2008) 2009 Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik 4

5 Food security progress in the world - insufficient in SSA Source: Fanso (2009) Quelle: Fanzo own (2009) modification 2009 Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik 5

6 Where agriculture meets food security Food Security Food availability Food access Food utilisation Food stability Food production worldwide & locally Storage, processing and transport of food Intra-household distribution Income direct and indirect inc. multipliers prices Preparation Health and child care Water and sanitation Markets Direct domain of agriculture Contribution of agriculture 2009 Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik 6

7 Productivity developments in Asia and Africa Quelle: WB (WDR 2008) Quelle: WB (WDR 2008) 2009 Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik 7

8 Development of cereal yields by world region Quelle: WB (WDR 2008) 2009 Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik 8

9 Low input, low output agriculture is prevailing in SSA Very low level of technology and capital intensity : Less than 10% of irrigatable area is irrigated Fertiliser use is about 13 kg/ha, less than 5% of East Asia Mechanisation and fixed capital use is extremely low 60-70% of arable land area is degradated, 30% of pastures, rampant deforestation Africa s shares of ag. world market low and shrinking Africa switched from net-exporter to net-importer of agricultural and food products foreign currency stress, dependency 2009 Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik 9

10 Deeper problems of African agriculture Problems of the rural space Ecology (soils, pests and diseases, climate, husbandry) Large diversity of production systems Products often not those of advanced countries Subsistence farming, lack of buffer capacities, risk aversion Low formal education and skills of rural population High transportation and transaction costs including risks Uncertain institutions (mod. + trad. rules on land, contracts,) Lack of, very thin or deficient markets for services, inputs and outputs; many wrong attempts to improve them Problems of the wider environment Negative influences of worldwide agricultural policies Taxation of agriculture, urban bias of macro /distribution policies Small markets Unfavourable macro and political environment Neglect of agriculture by governments and donors 2009 Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik 10

11 Official development aid to agriculture sind 1980s Quelle: Schmidhuber (2009) 2009 Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik 11

12 New Opportunities Agriculture rediscovered as means to combat poverty Agricultural food price crisis ->awareness Energy revolution (Bioenergy) Prospects for higher agricultural prices in the medium and long term New opportunities for agricultural investments and growth in SSA 2009 Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik 12

13 Production potential in SSA Yield potential: % with good on-farm practice for maize and some other crops, organic agriculure Land: Stabilise shifting cultivation (org. + inorg. Fertilisers) Some true new areas (mostly pastures) Water: Water harvesting + irrigation Moisture management Labour: Under-employment Saisonal bottlenecks Mechanisation Climate change: under moderate scenario -1,5% until 2050 without adaptation, up to -40% in indiv. countries locally very differentiated 2009 Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik 13

14 Necessary measures - generally Improve or maintain good macro conditions for agriculture Integrate agriculture in national strategies (food security, poverty, resource management, rural development, migration, climate) Invest in and improve research, extension, education, skills Improve markets and reduce transaction costs for agriculture Develop agri-based value chains Invest in sustainable land and water practices Organise farmers Reduce risks (inputs, outputs, livelihoods) 2009 Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik 14

15 Necessary measures specifically 1 High-food-price-policy (food souvereignity)? + supports agriculture, net food producers, including some smallholders and farm workers, and many rural economies - politically infeasible urban masses sensitive and politically decisive - economically dangerous costly unskilled wages hamper industrialisation, creates unsustainable structure - internationally difficult reduces exports of other countries and farmers carefully select according to competitivity aspects prefer cost-neutral, market-based stabilisation prefer investments 2009 Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik 15

16 Necessary measures specifically 2 Low-input agriculture? + less costs + less dependence + higher biological diversity (+ higher prices for some certified methods) +/- lower environmental footprint +/- lower potential losses, higher risk - Higher labour and knowledge intensive, very site specific There is hardly a sector where external inputs are more justified than agriculture Use must be sustainable and foster sustainability Look at economics! 2009 Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik 16

17 Necessary measures specifically 3 Small-scale farming? + high, flexible family labour absorption + consumption smoothing capacity, independence + flexible in adapting to certain external schocks + good for risk-averse household strategies +/- ecologically more diverse, soil mining - costly support (site- and farm-household specific) - problems of access to certain markets (standards, traceability,stability of delivery) - unreliable supply - low social reputation look at realistic lower size limits (medium term) look at off-farm environment (jobs, wages) look at market opportunities+charcteristics 2009 Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik 17

18 Necessary measures specifically 4 Large agro-industries? + specific market access + capital + technology access + pass through of capital, technology, and market a. + less government support required + infrastructure + social responsibility supply + stable wages, social security +/- more external inputs, pot. ecologically damaging +/- labour intensity / area - power asymmetries exploitation - dependencies, risks/costs of failure - structural path binding Look at technology + labour intensity look at market opportunities+charcteristics 2009 Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik 18

19 Necessary measures major issues Household/farm characteristics Off-farm environment (jobs, food, others) Aspirations Agricultural markets Input/service markets Private investments Public capacities and costs Impacts on food security, poverty, sustainability, gender et al Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik 19

20 Thank you for your attention! 2009 Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik 20

OUTCOME AND IMPACT LEVEL INDICATORS AGRICULTURE & RURAL DEVELOPMENT WORKING PAPER: OCTOBER 2009

EC EXTERNAL SERVICES EVALUATION UNIT OUTCOME AND IMPACT LEVEL INDICATORS AGRICULTURE & RURAL DEVELOPMENT WORKING PAPER: OCTOBER 2009 This working paper outlines a set of indicators at the outcome and impact