A May 2013 The Economic Pulse

Transcription

1 The Economic Pulse of the World Citizens in 25 Countries Assess the Current State of their Country s Economy for a Total Global Perspective The Economic Pulse

2 These are the findings of the Wave 45 an Ipsos survey conducted between May 7 th to May 21 st, SURVEY METHOD COUNTRIES SAMPLE WEIGHTING The survey instrument is conducted monthly in 25 core countries around the world via the Ipsos Online Panel system. The countries reporting herein are Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Norway, Poland, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Turkey and the United States. For the results of the survey presented herein, an international sample of 18,513 adults age in the US and Canada, and age in all other countries, were interviewed. Approximately individuals participated on a country by country basis via the Ipsos Online Panel with the exception of Argentina, Belgium, Hungary Indonesia, Mexico, Norway, Poland, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Sweden and Turkey, where each have a sample approximately In China, India and South Africa the samples are slightly more educated and educated compared to the average citizen. Weighting was then employed to balance demographics and ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to the most recent country Census data, and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. A survey with an unweighted probability sample of this size and a 100% response rate would have an estimated margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points for a sample of 1,000 and an estimated margin of error of +/- 4.5 percentage points 19 times out of 20 per country of what the results would have been had the entire population of adults in that country had been polled. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error. The Economic Pulse 2

3 Analytic Components There are three analytic components that make up the findings of this monthly Economic Pulse report. Each question is tracked and analyzed from questions dealing with: The currently perceived macroeconomic state of the respondent s country: Thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]? Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad? The currently perceived state of the local economy: Rate the current state of the economy in your local area using a scale from 1 to 7, where 7 means a very strong economy today and 1 means a very weak economy. A six month outlook for the local economy: Looking ahead six months from now, do you expect the economy in your local area to be much stronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or much weaker than it is now? The Economic Pulse 3

4 THE WORLD at a GLANCE THE WORLD at a GLANCE The Economic Pulse 4

5 Global Economic Assessment = Stable This wave represents both stability and improvement for the current global aggregate of 25 countries. The aggregate has improved three points to 39% of global citizens agree their current national economic situation is good. This improvement is driven by the addition of Norway (98%) without Norway, the aggregate assessment would remain unchanged at 36%. Two regions show noteworthy improvements this wave: Europe (+8 to 32%) and North America (+3 to 48%). In Europe, much of the improvement is driven by the addition of Norway but Great Britain is also showing an eight-point improvement to 21%, an important uptick for the country and region. In North America, Canada rebounds to 63% (up 3 points) after last month s dip while the United States continues its upward momentum (33%, +2 pts). The Middle East and Africa remains unchanged at 53% as a region while Asia-Pacific (43%) and Latin America (33%) both have gone down one point. The Economic Pulse 5

6 New Country: Norway welcomes Norway as the 25 th country to regularly field on a monthly basis on the international survey syndicate. The Scandinavian country has the second-highest GDP per capita and economic sentiment reflects this. Our poll finds 52% of those in Norway would describe the current economic situation in their country as very good while 46% consider it to be somewhat good. A small minority rate the national economic situation to be bad 1% say very bad, 2% somewhat bad. These decidedly positive views pull the global economic aggregate up three points higher this month than they would have been without Norway in the mix. The next-strongest country in terms of national economic sentiment is historic frontrunner Saudi Arabia, a full 17 points lower. On local economic assessments, six in ten (63%) Norwegians indicate the current state in their local economy is strong, compared with a global average of 28% (27% with the exclusion of Norway in the aggregate). Looking ahead six months from now, only 7% indicate they expect their local economy to be stronger, perhaps an indication of a feeling that the economy is strong but stable (Foreign Policy Magazine rates it the world s most well-functioning and stable country). In comparison, the global aggregate sits at 23% - unchanged with or without Norway - on this measure. The Economic Pulse 6

7 Global Average of National Economic Assessment (39%) Up Three Points The average global economic assessment of national economies surveyed in 25 countries edges higher as 39% of global citizens rate their national economies to be good with the inclusion of the newest country, Norway. (The aggregate is unchanged at 36% without Norway.) Norway has the highest national economic average of 98%, followed by Saudi Arabia (81%), Sweden (72%), and China (66%). The lowest average continues to be with European countries, with France at all time low of 3%, followed by Italy (4%), Spain (4%), and at some distance: Hungary (13%), and Poland (16%). Countries with the greatest improvements in this wave: South Africa (31%, 8pts), Great Britain (21%, 8pts), Japan (27%, 7pts), Hungary (13%, 6pts), Canada (63%, 4pts) and South Korea (17%, 3pts). Countries with the greatest declines: Australia (54%, -8pts), Turkey (48%, -7pts), Indonesia (41%, -7pts), Argentina (25%, -6pts) and Germany (62%, -5pts). The Economic Pulse 7

8 Global Average of Local Economic Assessment (28%) Up One Point When asked to asses their local economies, three in ten (28%) agree the state of the current economy in their local area is good on the global aggregate level. Compared to last sounding, the aggregate is unchanged without the inclusion of Norway and reflects a one-point improvement with the inclusion of Norway. Norway (63%) moves ahead of Saudi Arabia (57%) with the highest average of Local Economic Assessment. Not far behind are Sweden (53%), China (48%), and Germany (43%). The lowest ranking countries on this measure are France (6%), Spain (7%), Italy (8%), Hungary (9%), Japan (12%) and Poland (13%). Countries with the greatest improvements in this wave: Saudi Arabia (57%, 4pts), Sweden (53%, 4pts), India (, 4pts) and South Africa (24%, 3pts). Countries with the greatest declines: France (6%, -6pts), Australia (37%, -5pts), Indonesia (29%, -5pts), Germany (43%, -4pts), Turkey (36%, -4pts) and Mexico (, -4pts). The Economic Pulse 8

9 Global Average of Future Outlook for Local Economy Unchanged: 23% One quarter (23%) expect that their local economy will be stronger six months from now, consistent with last month sounding. A strong majority of Brazilians (64%) continue to indicate they predict their local economies will be stronger in the next six months. A gap persists in between Brazilian ratings and the rest of the highest-ranking countries: Saudi Arabia (51%), India (46%), China (39%), Mexico (39%) and Argentina (36%). Small minorities in France (3%), Belgium (6%), Norway (7%), Hungary (8%), Poland (), and Sweden () expect their future local economies will be stronger. Countries with the greatest improvements in this wave: Japan (28%, 5pts), Spain (16%, 4pts), Italy (15%, 3pts), Great Britain (12%, 3pts) and Turkey (27%, 2pts). Countries with the greatest declines: Brazil (64%, -4pts), Germany (14%, -4pts), Poland (, -3pts), Sweden (, -3pts), Argentina (36%, -2pts) and Indonesia (33%, -2pts). The Economic Pulse 9

10 1. National Economic Assessments: Countries at a Glance Compared to the Last Wave Those Countries Where the National Area Economic Assessment is HIGHEST this month has experienced an IMPROVEMENT since last sounding has experienced a DECLINE since last sounding is LOWEST this month Norway 98% South Africa 8 Australia 8 France 3% Saudi Arabia 81% Great Britain 8 Turkey 7 Italy 4% Sweden 72% Japan 7 Indonesia 7 Spain 4% China 66% Hungary 6 Argentina 6 Hungary 13% Canada 63% Canada 4 Germany 5 Poland 16% Germany 62% South Korea 3 India 4 South Korea 17% India 62% Sweden 2 Russia 3 Great Britain 21% Australia 54% China 2 Poland 3 Argentina 25% Turkey 48% United States 2 Belgium 2 Belgium 27% Brazil 42% Mexico 2 France 2 Japan 27% Indonesia 41% Saudi Arabia 1 Russia 30% United States 33% Spain 1 South Africa 31% Thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]? Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad? The Economic Pulse 10

11 1. National Economic Assessment: Regions at a Glance Compared to the Last Wave REGION (in descending order by NET) NET Good CHANGE (since last sounding) Middle East/Africa 53% N/C BRIC 50% 1% North America 48% 3% APAC 43% 1% LATAM 33% 1% Europe 32% 8% G-8 Countries 30% 1% Thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]? Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad? The Economic Pulse 11

12 2. Local Economic Assessment: Countries at a Glance Compared to the Last Wave Those Countries Where the Local Area Economic Assessment is HIGHEST this month has experienced an IMPROVEMENT since last sounding has experienced a DECLINE since last sounding is LOWEST this month Norway 63% Saudi Arabia 4 France 6 France 6% Saudi Arabia 57% Sweden 4 Australia 5 Spain 7% Sweden 53% India 4 Indonesia 5 Italy 8% China 48% South Africa 3 Germany 4 Hungary 9% Germany 43% Japan 3 Turkey 4 Japan 12% Canada 41% Argentina 2 Mexico 4 Poland 13% India Italy 2 Poland 3 Belgium 14% Australia 37% Spain 2 Brazil 1 Great Britain 15% Turkey 36% United States 1 Belgium 1 South Korea 17% Brazil 35% Russia 1 Russia Indonesia 29% South Korea 1 Mexico United States 28% Great Britain 1 South Africa 24% Rate the current state of the economy in your local area using a scale from 1 to 7, where 7 means a very strong economy today and 1 means a very weak economy The Economic Pulse 12

13 2. Local Economic Assessment: Regions at a Glance Compared to the Last Wave REGION (in descending order by NET) NET Strong Top 3 Box (5-6-7) CHANGE (since last sounding) Middle East/Africa 39% 1% BRIC 36% 1% North America 35% 1% APAC 29% N/C LATAM 26% 1% Europe 23% 4% G-8 Countries 22% N/C Rate the current state of the economy in your local area using a scale from 1 to 7, where 7 means a very strong economy today and 1 means a very weak economy The Economic Pulse 13

14 3. Six Month Outlook on the Local Economy: Countries at a Glance Compared to the Last Wave Countries where the Assessment of the Local Economic Strengthening is HIGHEST this month has experienced an IMPROVEMENT since last sounding has experienced a DECLINE since last sounding is LOWEST this month Brazil 64% Japan 5 Brazil 4 France 3% Saudi Arabia 51% Spain 4 Germany 4 Belgium 6% India 46% Italy 3 Poland 3 Norway 7% China 39% Great Britain 3 Sweden 3 Hungary 8% Mexico 39% Turkey 2 Argentina 2 Poland Argentina 36% India 1 Indonesia 2 Sweden Indonesia 33% China 1 Canada 1 Great Britain 12% Japan 28% Mexico 1 Hungary 1 Australia 14% Turkey 27% United States 1 Germany 14% United States 25% South Korea 1 South Africa 14% Russia 16% South Africa 1 Canada 15% Spain 16% Italy 15% Looking ahead six months from now, do you expect the economy in your local area to be much stronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or much weaker than it is now? The Economic Pulse 14

15 3. Six Month Outlook on Local Economy: Regions at a Glance Compared to Last Wave REGION (in descending order by NET) NET Stronger CHANGE (since last sounding) LATAM 46% 2% BRIC 41% 1% Middle East/Africa 31% 1% APAC 27% N/C North America N/C G-8 Countries 16% 1% Europe 1% Looking ahead six months from now, do you expect the economy in your local area to be much stronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or much weaker than it is now? The Economic Pulse 15

16 DETAILED FINDINGS The Economic Pulse 16

17 Assessing The Current Economic Situation in Their Country Detailed Tables B.3 The Economic Pulse 17

18 Global Citizens Assess the Current Economic Situation in their Country as Good Very Good / Somewhat Good Total Norway Saudi Arabia Sweden China Canada Germany India Australia Turkey Brazil Indonesia United States Mexico South Africa Russia Belgium Japan Argentina Great Britain South Korea Poland Hungary Italy Spain France 4% 4% 3% 39% 54% 48% 42% 41% 33% 31% 31% 30% 27% 27% 25% 21% 17% 16% 13% 72% 66% 63% 62% 62% 81% 98% Now thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]? Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad? The Economic Pulse 18

19 Apr/07 Oct/07 Apr/08 Nov/08 Apr/09 Nov/Jan/10 Apr/10 May/10 Jun/10 Jul/10 Aug/10 Sep/10 Oct/10 Nov/10 Dec/10 Jan/11 Feb/11 Mar/11 Apr/11 May/11 Jun/11 Jul/11 Aug/11 Sep/11 Oct/11 Nov/11 Dec/11 Jan/12 Feb/12 Mar/12 Apr/12 May/12 Jun/12 Jul/12 Aug/12 Sep/12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Global Average Tracked - Global Citizens Assess the Current Economic Situation in their Country as Good : 3 70% Total Good 60% 56% 55% 50% 30% 45% 38% 38% 39% 39% 41% 42% 41% 41% 41% 41% 38% 38% 39% 38% 39% 38% 39% 39% 39% 38% 37% 37% 38% 38% 37% 32% 36% 35% 36% 37% 37% 36% 36% 39% 29% 0% Now thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]? Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad? The Economic Pulse 19

20 Nov 10 Dec 10 For All Countries Tracked: Citizens Assess the Current Economic Situation in their Country as Good Jan Now thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]? Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad? Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 12 Argentina 42% 39% 45% 41% 43% 46% 46% 47% 50% 50% 59% 54% 55% 52% 55% 47% 51% 38% 45% 34% 37% 34% 36% 36% 33% 37% 37% 30% 31% 25% Australia 74% 75% 78% 72% 70% 70% 73% 66% 64% 56% 61% 62% 67% 68% 70% 66% 62% 64% 61% 61% 58% 59% 62% 61% 61% 63% 59% 59% 57% 62% 54% Belgium 28% 31% 34% 39% 36% 41% 42% 41% 37% 31% 25% 24% 19% 22% 16% 24% 21% 28% 29% 34% 35% 36% 28% 15% 21% 27% 25% 25% 29% 27% Brazil 64% 62% 56% 61% 53% 52% 51% 51% 53% 52% 55% 55% 59% 56% 62% 63% 54% 59% 49% 52% 58% 51% 56% 57% 51% 55% 52% 47% 48% 42% 42% Canada 63% 62% 68% 68% 64% 68% 69% 69% 72% 73% 66% 66% 62% 63% 65% 65% 64% 62% 62% 62% 63% 65% 66% 68% 64% 66% 66% 65% 65% 59% 63% China 74% 72% 74% 73% 67% 75% 68% 68% 66% 61% 65% 65% 62% 55% 64% 72% 71% 62% 63% 60% 67% 53% 58% 63% 63% 64% 68% 69% 72% 64% 66% France 12% 12% 11% 8% 11% 12% 8% 12% 7% 6% 7% 5% 6% 7% 9% 9% 9% 9% 8% 9% 6% 6% 5% 7% 5% 7% 6% 5% 3% Germany 67% 63% 64% 64% 62% 67% 68% 68% 71% 66% 63% 64% 64% 61% 70% 71% 68% 68% 69% 66% 68% 69% 68% 60% 63% 63% 65% 64% 64% 67% 62% Great 16% 13% 15% 12% 8% 15% 13% 11% 17% 11% 8% 13% 14% 12% 12% 11% 14% 14% 15% 17% 13% 13% 16% 12% 13% 21% Britain Hungary 7% 6% 3% 5% 3% 6% 5% 6% 5% 4% 4% 2% 3% 2% 2% 3% 4% 4% 3% 4% 3% 5% 4% 4% 3% 5% 8% 6% 6% 7% 13% India 88% 87% 76% 77% 73% 76% 73% 71% 62% 69% 69% 75% 69% 68% 65% 74% 79% 72% 70% 58% 60% 68% 58% 58% 60% 68% 60% 65% 63% 66% 62% Indonesia 45% 48% 37% 38% 46% 47% 41% 36% 42% 35% 50% 46% 45% 35% 36% 41% 46% 46% 52% 50% 53% 53% 45% 48% 41% Italy 11% 14% 11% 14% 12% 14% 8% 8% 8% 6% 5% 5% 6% 6% 5% 3% 3% 4% 5% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 4% Japan 6% 9% 6% 8% 8% 7% 9% 8% 8% 6% 8% 6% 7% 8% 8% 9% 9% 8% 9% 9% 7% 11% 11% 9% 7% 6% 9% 16% 17% 27% Mexico 25% 25% 33% 22% 25% 27% 29% 34% 33% 25% 28% 32% 30% 24% 29% 31% 33% 28% 28% 32% 29% 34% 32% 39% 35% 38% 32% 31% 29% 31% Norway 98% Poland 30% 28% 23% 29% 19% 23% 22% 24% 28% 27% 30% 28% 27% 27% 21% 27% 25% 25% 28% 33% 22% 19% 21% 18% 17% 19% 15% 19% 16% Russia 29% 27% 26% 25% 26% 26% 26% 29% 25% 26% 27% 23% 25% 30% 30% 28% 33% 33% 36% 33% 29% 28% 31% 27% 29% 26% 24% 31% 27% 33% 30% Saudi Arabia 81% 81% 80% 81% 85% 87% 89% 89% 87% 88% 89% 83% 89% 86% 86% 90% 89% 88% 88% 83% 85% 84% 80% 79% 79% 82% 86% 85% 80% 80% 81% South Africa 41% 51% 45% 45% 41% 43% 42% 38% 39% 34% 39% 32% 32% 42% 36% 35% 33% 38% 39% 38% 31% 26% 22% 22% 33% 19% 23% 31% South Korea 37% 39% 34% 38% 22% 25% 29% 27% 27% 18% 21% 18% 26% 21% 17% 17% 22% 21% 18% 17% 24% 16% 15% 15% 16% 21% 14% 17% Spain 7% 7% 4% 6% 6% 8% 6% 6% 7% 6% 3% 5% 3% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 4% 3% 3% 2% 3% 4% 5% 3% 4% Sweden 75% 75% 82% 80% 71% 78% 76% 76% 77% 70% 74% 69% 73% 74% 72% 73% 70% 71% 64% 75% 71% 81% 65% 72% 69% 57% 73% 69% 73% 70% 72% Turkey 41% 41% 46% 47% 43% 49% 50% 51% 57% 48% 61% 59% 54% 58% 55% 58% 58% 51% 49% 51% 51% 56% 50% 44% 48% 47% 48% 51% 53% 55% 48% United States 19% 19% 17% 23% 19% 19% 14% 15% 14% 19% 21% 21% 19% 22% 27% 23% 26% 25% 28% 26% 24% 28% 31% 29% 32% 31% 31% 33% Feb 12 Mar 12 Apr 12 May 12 Jun 12 Jul 12 Aug 12 Sep 12 Oct 12 Nov 12 Dec 12 Jan 13 Feb 13 Mar 13 Apr 13 May 13 The Economic Pulse 20

21 Countries Ranked and Marked By Change In Assessment From Last Month (Left Column) Thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]? Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad? % Very Good / Somewhat Good Total (+3) South Africa (+8) Great Britain (+8) Japan (+7) Hungary (+6) Canada (+4) South Korea (+3) Sweden (+2) China (+2) United States (+2) Mexico (+2) Saudi Arabia (+1) Spain (+1) Brazil (N/C) Italy (N/C) Belgium (-2) France (-2) Russia (-3) Poland (-3) India (-4) Germany (-5) Argentina (-6) Turkey (-7) Indonesia (-7) Australia (-8) 4% 4% 3% 31% 21% 27% 13% 17% 33% 31% 27% 30% 16% 25% 39% Green marks countries experiencing improvement; Blue marks countries with no change from last month; Red marks countries experiencing a decline 42% 41% 48% 54% 63% 62% 62% 66% 72% 81% The Economic Pulse 21

22 Countries Ranked by Net Improvement, Decline or No Change Compared to Last Month: Thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]? Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad? -15% - -5% 0% 5% 15% South Africa (+8) Great Britain (+8) 8% 8% Japan (+7) 7% Hungary (+6) Canada (+4) South Korea (+3) 3% Sweden (+2) 2% China (+2) 2% United States (+2) 2% Mexico (+2) 2% Saudi Arabia (+1) 1% Spain (+1) 1% Brazil (N/C) 0% Italy (N/C) 0% -2% Belgium (-2) -2% France (-2) -3% Russia (-3) -3% Poland (-3) -4% India (-4) -5% Germany (-5) -6% Argentina (-6) -7% Turkey (-7) -7% Indonesia (-7) -8% Australia (-8) 4% 6% The Economic Pulse 22

23 Apr 2007 Oct 2007 Apr 2008 Nov 2008 Apr 2009 Nov/Jan/10 Mar 2010 Apr 2010 May 2010 Jun 2010 Jul 2010 Aug 2010 Sep 2010 Oct 2010 Nov 2010 Dec 2010 Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Mar 2011 Apr 2011 May 2011 Jun 2011 Jul 2011 Aug 2011 Sep 2011 Oct 2011 Nov 2011 Dec 2011 Jan 2012 Feb 2012 Mar 2012 Apr 2012 May 2012 Jun 2012 Jul 2012 Aug 2012 Sep 2012 Oct 2012 Nov 2012 Dec 2012 Jan 2013 Feb 2013 Mar 2013 Apr 2013 May 2013 Assessing the Current Economic Situation by All Regions: Very Good / Somewhat Good 80% 71% 70% 64% 60% 61% 50% 51% 45% 30% 53% 50% 48% 43% 33% 32% 30% North America (Can/US) LATAM Europe APAC G8 BRIC Middle East/Africa Now thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]? Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad? The Economic Pulse 23

24 Apr 2007 Oct 2007 Apr 2008 Nov 2008 Apr 2009 Nov/Jan 2010 Mar 2010 Apr 2010 May 2010 Jun 2010 Jul 2010 Aug 2010 Sept 2010 Oct 2010 Nov 2010 Dec 2010 Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Mar/11 Apr/11 May/11 Jun/11 Jul/11 Aug/11 Sept/11 Oct/11 Nov/11 Dec/11 Jan/12 Feb/12 Mar/12 Apr/12 May/12 Jun/12 Jul/12 Aug/12 Sep/12 Oct/12 Nov/12 Dec/12 Jan/13 Feb/13 Mar/13 Apr/13 May/13 North American (Canada/US) Countries Assessing the Current Economic Situation 3 Very Good / Somewhat Good 100% 90% 80% 70% 80% 60% 63% 50% 47% 30% 33% 0% United States Canada Now thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]? Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad? The Economic Pulse 24

25 Apr-07 Oct-07 Apr-08 Nov-08 Apr-09 Nov-09/Jan-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sept-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sept-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 LATAM Countries Assessing the Current Economic Situation 1 Very Good / Somewhat Good 80% 70% 60% 50% 50% 42% 42% 30% 31% 25% 0% Brazil Argentina Mexico Now thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]? Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad? The Economic Pulse 25

26 Apr-07 Oct-07 Apr-08 Nov-08 Apr-09 Nov/Jan 2010 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sept-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 European Countries Assessing the Current Economic Situation 8 100% 90% Very Good / Somewhat Good 98% 80% 70% 64% 60% 59% 50% 50% 72% 62% 30% 27% 0% 27% 21% 16% 13% 4% 3% 3% Germany France Spain Sweden Great Britain Belgium Italy Hungary Poland Norway Now thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]? Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad? The Economic Pulse 26

27 Apr-07 Oct-07 Apr-08 Nov-08 Apr-09 Nov-09/Jan-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sept-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 APAC Countries Assessing the Current Economic Situation 1 Very Good / Somewhat Good 100% 90% 90% 88% 80% 78% 70% 65% 60% 50% 66% 62% 54% 41% 30% 30% 27% 16% 17% 0% Australia China India Japan Russia South Korea Indonesia Now thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]? Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad? The Economic Pulse 27

28 Apr-07 Oct-07 Apr-08 Nov-08 Apr-09 Nov-09/Jan-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sept-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sept-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 G8 Countries Assessing the Current Economic Situation 1 100% Very Good / Somewhat Good 90% 80% 80% 70% 65% 63% 60% 59% 62% 50% 47% 30% 28% 27% 33% 30% 27% 21% 0% 4% 3% Great Britain Canada France Germany Italy Japan Russia United States Now thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]? Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad? The Economic Pulse 28

29 Apr-07 Oct-07 Apr-08 Nov-08 Apr-09 Nov 09/Jan 10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sept-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sept-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 BRIC Countries Assessing the Current Economic Situation 1 Very Good / Somewhat Good 100% 90% 90% 88% 80% 70% 65% 60% 66% 62% 50% 42% 42% 30% 30% 0% Brazil Russia India China Now thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]? Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad? The Economic Pulse 29

30 N09/J10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sept-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Middle East/African Countries Assessing the Current Economic Situation N/C Very Good / Somewhat Good 100% 90% 80% 81% 70% 73% 60% 50% 48% 38% 30% 31% 0% Turkey Saudi Arabia South Africa Now thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]? Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad? The Economic Pulse 30

31 Assessing The Economy In Their Local Area Detailed Tables B.6 The Economic Pulse 31

32 Citizen Consumers Who Say The Economy In Their Local Area is Strong % Strong (Top 3: 5-6-7) Total Norway Saudi Arabia Sweden China Germany Canada India Australia Turkey Brazil Indonesia United States Argentina South Africa Mexico Russia South Korea Great Britain Belgium Poland Japan Hungary Italy Spain France 9% 8% 7% 6% 17% 15% 14% 13% 12% 24% 24% 28% 29% 28% 43% 41% 37% 36% 35% 48% 53% 57% 63% Rate the current state of the economy in your local area using a scale from 1 to 7, where 7 means a very strong economy today and 1 means a very weak economy The Economic Pulse 32

33 Mar/10 Apr/10 May/10 Jun/10 Jul/10 Aug/10 Sept/10 Oct/10 Nov/10 Dec/10 Jan/11 Feb/11 Mra/11 Apr/11 May/11 Jun/11 Jul/11 Aug/11 Sept/11 Oct/11 Nov/11 Dec/11 Jan/12 Feb/12 Mar/12 Apr/12 May/12 Jun/12 Jul/12 Aug/12 Sep/12 Oct/12 Nov/12 Dec/12 Jan/13 Feb/13 Mar/13 Apr/13 May/13 Citizen Consumers Who Say The Economy In Their Local Area is Strong 1 Total - % Strong (Top 3: 5-6-7) 70% 60% 50% 30% 28% 30% 29% 29% 29% 30% 30% 30% 31% 30% 30% 31% 29% 30% 30% 30% 31% 29% 30% 29% 29% 29% 29% 29% 30% 29% 29% 28% 29% 27% 27% 27% 27% 26% 27% 27% 27% 27% 28% 0% Rate the current state of the economy in your local area using a scale from 1 to 7, where 7 means a very strong economy today and 1 means a very weak economy. The Economic Pulse 33

34 Nov 10 Citizen Consumers Who Say The Economy In Their Local Area is Strong Dec 10 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep % Strong (Top ) Oct Nov Dec Jan 12 Total 31% 30% 30% 31% 29% 30% 30% 30% 31% 29% 30% 29% 29% 29% 29% 29% 30% 29% 29% 28% 29% 27% 27% 27% 27% 26% 27% 27% 27% 27% 28% Argentina 28% 28% 30% 28% 26% 30% 28% 31% 30% 29% 36% 35% 36% 34% 35% 29% 30% 23% 27% 17% 24% 22% 22% 21% 23% 23% 22% 23% 22% 24% Australia 53% 55% 60% 54% 53% 51% 50% 46% 46% 42% 43% 49% 46% 47% 47% 46% 43% 42% 39% 43% 41% 38% 41% 42% 42% 39% 42% 37% Belgium 21% 16% 30% 23% 27% 26% 25% 24% 19% 21% 18% 16% 14% 15% 11% 16% 14% 19% 19% 19% 22% 18% 13% 13% 17% 14% 15% 15% 14% Brazil 47% 51% 42% 47% 41% 39% 42% 41% 43% 46% 39% 44% 49% 46% 50% 44% 41% 41% 41% 39% 51% 41% 36% 42% 38% 44% 38% 39% 38% 36% 35% Canada 46% 42% 49% 49% 46% 49% 49% 51% 49% 51% 48% 48% 44% 45% 45% 46% 44% 44% 45% 46% 48% 44% 46% 44% 43% 42% 47% 46% 47% 41% 41% China 59% 55% 56% 57% 56% 56% 51% 49% 47% 45% 53% 48% 48% 48% 52% 49% 59% 53% 46% 44% 50% 50% 51% 47% 54% 47% 51% 50% 56% 48% 48% France 14% 12% 14% 15% 16% 14% 16% 16% 14% 18% 12% 15% 12% 12% 12% 13% 15% 13% 15% 14% 14% 15% 13% 12% 12% 13% 12% 12% 12% 6% Germany 43% 43% 43% 38% 46% 46% 47% 47% 45% 43% 41% 43% 41% 45% 48% 47% 47% 47% 48% 45% 48% 47% 39% 43% 44% 48% 45% 47% 47% 43% Great Britain 16% 15% 15% 14% 12% 14% 17% 17% 12% 12% 17% 13% 13% 13% 16% 15% 18% 13% 13% 15% 14% 14% 16% 15% 17% 14% 14% 15% 14% 14% 15% Hungary 11% 9% 12% 9% 12% 12% 11% 9% 9% 8% 8% 7% 8% 6% 7% 7% 8% 7% 7% 8% 7% 8% 8% 7% 6% 7% 8% 9% 9% India 67% 60% 51% 55% 52% 52% 47% 50% 42% 49% 47% 47% 48% 48% 47% 51% 56% 54% 50% 39% 46% 48% 43% 41% 44% 45% 39% 39% 41% 36% Indonesia 31% 32% 25% 23% 30% 27% 33% 27% 29% 24% 31% 26% 34% 33% 31% 26% 25% 28% 27% 28% 29% 29% 26% 36% 34% 33% 37% 41% 30% 34% 29% Italy 15% 18% 14% 18% 16% 16% 18% 17% 16% 14% 13% 12% 12% 12% 9% 8% 7% 8% 9% 9% 8% 8% 9% 9% 8% 6% 8% Japan 5% 6% 4% 5% 5% 5% 7% 6% 7% 5% 5% 7% 6% 5% 7% 6% 6% 7% 7% 8% 6% 8% 8% 6% 5% 5% 5% 7% 7% 9% 12% Mexico 15% 17% 22% 21% 17% 18% 18% 19% 25% 24% 21% 21% 23% 22% 22% 28% 25% 27% 22% 19% 19% 24% 22% 27% 24% 21% 23% 23% 24% Norway 63% Poland 25% 22% 19% 21% 19% 23% 17% 21% 21% 23% 24% 24% 19% 21% 24% 18% 22% 23% 24% 18% 16% 18% 17% 16% 14% 15% 14% 16% 13% Russia 24% 19% 16% 17% 21% 18% 18% 19% 17% 18% 23% 18% 19% 21% 21% 23% 18% 22% 19% 16% 17% 17% 18% 16% 22% 17% 19% Saudi 50% 58% 57% 55% 62% 63% 61% 63% 66% 69% 64% 58% 67% 64% 69% 65% 69% 65% 64% 67% 71% 48% 47% 53% 53% 54% 59% 57% 55% 53% 57% Arabia South Africa 26% 30% 34% 29% 22% 23% 28% 34% 34% 27% 26% 26% 25% 23% 26% 26% 29% 26% 30% 27% 29% 26% 23% 24% 18% 18% 26% 17% 21% 24% South Korea 26% 28% 23% 25% 16% 19% 21% 18% 21% 16% 16% 16% 18% 17% 12% 15% 16% 17% 16% 19% 14% 13% 17% 14% 14% 15% 14% 17% 15% 16% 17% Spain 11% 9% 9% 9% 9% 8% 11% 8% 6% 8% 8% 6% 6% 7% 6% 5% 4% 6% 6% 5% 7% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 6% 5% 7% Sweden 58% 55% 53% 57% 51% 54% 47% 52% 59% 57% 52% 55% 43% 48% 49% 45% 46% 53% 51% 54% 48% 55% 44% 52% 51% 47% 52% 51% 53% 49% 53% Turkey 27% 30% 32% 33% 33% 33% 35% 38% 46% 32% 45% 42% 44% 45% 35% 41% 37% 41% 38% 37% 35% 32% 36% 35% 35% 34% 37% 36% United 19% 24% 18% 18% 19% 18% 22% 17% 18% 16% 19% 23% 22% 24% 23% 23% 22% 28% 28% 23% 23% 22% 25% 22% 28% 23% 27% 28% States Rate the current state of the economy in your local area using a scale from 1 to 7, where 7 means a very strong economy today and 1 means a very weak economy. Feb 12 Mar 12 Apr 12 May 12 Jun 12 Jul 12 Aug 12 Sep 12 Oct 12 Nov 12 Dec 12 Jan 13 Feb 13 Mar 13 Apr 13 May 13 The Economic Pulse 34

35 Countries Ranked and Marked By Change In Assessment From Last Month (Left Column): Rate the current state of the economy in your local area using a scale from 1 to 7, where 7 means a very strong economy today and 1 means a very weak economy Total (+1) Saudi Arabia (+4) Sweden (+4) India (+4) South Africa (+3) Japan (+3) Argentina (+2) Italy (+2) Spain (+2) United States (+1) Russia (+1) South Korea (+1) Great Britain (+1) China (N/C) Canada (N/C) Hungary (N/C) Brazil (-1) Belgium (-1) Poland (-3) Germany (-4) Turkey (-4) Mexico (-4) Australia (-5) Indonesia (-5) France (-6) 8% 7% 9% 6% 12% 17% 15% 14% 13% 24% 24% 28% 28% 29% 35% 36% 37% 41% 43% 48% 53% 57% Green marks countries experiencing improvement; Blue marks countries with no change from last month; Red marks countries experiencing a decline. The Economic Pulse 35

36 Countries Ranked by Net Improvement, Decline or No Change Compared to Last Month: Rate the current state of the economy in your local area using a scale from 1 to 7, where 7 means a very strong economy today and 1 means a very weak economy -25% - -15% - -5% 0% 5% 15% 25% Saudi Arabia (+4) 4% Sweden (+4) 4% India (+4) 4% South Africa (+3) 3% Japan (+3) 3% Argentina (+2) 2% Italy (+2) 2% Spain (+2) 2% United States (+1) 1% Russia (+1) 1% South Korea (+1) 1% Great Britain (+1) 1% China (N/C) 0% Canada (N/C) 0% Hungary (N/C) 0% -1% Brazil (-1) -1% Belgium (-1) -3% Poland (-3) -4% Germany (-4) -4% Turkey (-4) -4% Mexico (-4) -5% Australia (-5) -5% Indonesia (-5) -6% France (-6) The Economic Pulse 36

37 Mar 2010 Apr 2010 May 2010 Jun 2010 Jul 2010 Aug 2010 Sept 2010 Oct 2010 Nov 2010 Dec 2010 Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Mar 2011 Apr 2011 May 2011 Jun 2011 Jul 2011 Aug 2011 Sept 2011 Oct 2011 Nov 2011 Dec 2011 Jan 2012 Feb 2012 Mar 2012 Apr 2012 May 2012 Jun 2012 Jul 2012 Aug 2012 Sep 2012 Oct 2012 Nov 2012 Dec 2012 Jan 2013 Feb 2013 Mar 2013 Apr 2013 May 2013 All Regions Assess the Strength of Their Local Economy % Strong (Top ) 55% 50% 46% 45% 39% 37% 36% 35% 35% 35% 32% 30% 29% 26% 25% 25% 23% 21% 22% 15% North America LATAM Europe APAC G-8 Countries BRIC Middle East/Africa Rate the current state of the economy in your local area using a scale from 1 to 7, where 7 means a very strong economy today and 1 means a very weak economy. The Economic Pulse 37

38 Mar 2010 Apr 2010 May 2010 Jun 2010 Jul 2010 Aug 2010 Sept 2010 Oct 2010 Nov 2010 Dec 2010 Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Mar 2011 Apr 2011 May 2011 Jun 2011 Jul 2011 Aug 2011 Sept 2011 Oct 2011 Nov 2011 Dec 2011 Jan 2012 Feb Mar 2012 Apr 2012 May 2012 Jun 2012 Jul 2012 Aug 2012 Sep 2012 Oct 2012 Nov 2012 Dec 2012 Jan 2013 Feb 2013 Mar 2013 Apr 2013 May 2013 North American Countries Assess the Strength of Their Local Economy 1 % Strong (Top ) 55% 50% 45% 44% 41% 35% 30% 25% 28% 15% United States Canada Rate the current state of the economy in your local area using a scale from 1 to 7, where 7 means a very strong economy today and 1 means a very weak economy. The Economic Pulse 38

39 Mar 2010 Apr 2010 May 2010 Jun 2010 Jul 2010 Aug 2010 Sep 2010 Oct 2010 Nov 2010 Dec 2010 Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Mar 2011 Apr 2011 May 2011 Jun 2011 Jul 2011 Aug 2011 Sept 2011 Oct 2011 Nov 2011 Dec 2011 Jan 2012 Feb 2012 Mar 2012 Apr 2012 May 2012 Jun 2012 Jul 2012 Aug 2012 Sep 2012 Oct 2012 Nov 2012 Dec 2012 Jan 2013 Feb 2013 Mar 2013 Apr 2013 May 2013 LATAM Countries Assess the Strength of Their Local Economy 1 % Strong (Top ) 55% 50% 45% 38% 35% 35% 30% 25% 24% 19% 15% Brazil Argentina Mexico Rate the current state of the economy in your local area using a scale from 1 to 7, where 7 means a very strong economy today and 1 means a very weak economy. The Economic Pulse 39

40 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sept-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sept-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 European Countries Assess the Strength of Their Local Economy 4 % Strong (Top ) 70% 60% 63% 50% 44% 53% 43% 30% 29% 27% 18% 15% 15% 14% 13% 13% 11% 9% 8% 7% 6% 0% Germany France Spain Sweden Great Britain Belgium Italy Hungary Poland Norway Rate the current state of the economy in your local area using a scale from 1 to 7, where 7 means a very strong economy today and 1 means a very weak economy. The Economic Pulse 40

41 Mar 2010 Apr 2010 May 2010 Jun 2010 Jul 2010 Aug 2010 Sept 2010 Oct 2010 Nov 2010 Dec 2010 Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Mar 2011 Apr 2011 May 2011 Jun 2011 Jul 2011 Aug 2011 Sept 2011 Oct 2011 Nov 2011 Dec 2011 Jan 2012 Feb 2012 Mar 2012 Apr 2012 May 2012 Jun 2012 Jul 2012 Aug 2012 Sep 2012 Oct 2012 Nov 2012 Dec 2012 Jan 2013 Feb 2013 Mar 2013 Apr 2013 May 2013 APAC Countries Assess the Strength of Their Local Economy N/C % Strong (Top ) 80% 70% 60% 61% 56% 50% 48% 30% 37% 37% 29% 23% 16% 17% 12% 0% 4% Australia China India Japan Russia South Korea Indonesia Rate the current state of the economy in your local area using a scale from 1 to 7, where 7 means a very strong economy today and 1 means a very weak economy. The Economic Pulse 41

42 Mar 2010 Apr 2010 May 2010 Jun 2010 Jul 2010 Aug 2010 Sept 2010 Oct 2010 Nov 2010 Dec 2010 Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Mar 2011 Apr 2011 May 2011 Jun 2011 Jul 2011 Aug 2011 Sept 2011 Oct 2011 Nov 2011 Dec 2011 Jan 2012 Feb 2012 Mar 2012 Apr 2012 May 2012 Jun 2012 Jul 2012 Aug 2012 Sep 2012 Oct 2012 Nov 2012 Dec 2012 Jan 2013 Feb 2013 Mar 2013 Apr 2013 May 2013 G8 Countries Assess the Strength of Their Local Economy N/C 60% % Strong (Top ) 50% 43% 41% 30% 27% 23% 18% 14% 28% 15% 12% 8% 6% 0% Great Britain Canada France Germany Italy Japan Russia United States Rate the current state of the economy in your local area using a scale from 1 to 7, where 7 means a very strong economy today and 1 means a very weak economy. The Economic Pulse 42

43 Mar 2010 Apr 2010 May 2010 Jun 2010 Jul 2010 Aug 2010 Sept 2010 Oct 2010 Nov 2010 Dec 2010 Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Mar 2011 Apr 2011 May 2011 Jun 2011 Jul 2011 Aug 2011 Sept 2011 Oct 2011 Nov 2011 Dec 2011 Jan 2012 Feb 2012 Mar 2012 Apr 2012 May 2012 Jun 2012 Jul 2012 Aug 2012 Sep 2012 Oct 2012 Nov 2012 Dec 2012 Jan 2013 Feb 2013 Mar 2013 Apr 2013 May 2013 BRIC Countries Assess the Strength of Their Local Economy 1 % Strong (Top ) 80% 70% 60% 61% 50% 48% 30% 38% 35% 23% 0% Brazil Russia India China Rate the current state of the economy in your local area using a scale from 1 to 7, where 7 means a very strong economy today and 1 means a very weak economy. The Economic Pulse 43

44 Mar 2010 Apr 2010 May 2010 Jun 2010 Julo 2010 Aug 2010 Sept 2010 Oct 2010 Nov 2010 Dec 2010 Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Mar 2011 Apr 2011 May 2011 Jun 2011 Jul 2011 Aug 2011 Sept 2011 Oct 2011 Nov 2011 Dec 2011 Jan 2012 Feb 2012 Mar 2012 Apr 2012 May 2012 Jun 2012 Jul 2012 Aug 2012 Sep 2012 Oct 2012 Nov 2012 Jan 2013 Feb 2013 Mar 2013 Apr 2013 May 2013 Middle East/ African Countries Assess the Strength of Their Local Economy 1 80% % Strong (Top ) 70% 60% 57% 50% 49% 30% 29% 26% 36% 24% 0% Turkey Saudi Arabia South Africa Rate the current state of the economy in your local area using a scale from 1 to 7, where 7 means a very strong economy today and 1 means a very weak economy. The Economic Pulse 44

45 Assessing the Strength of The Local Economy Six Months From Now Detailed Tables B.7 The Economic Pulse 45

46 Citizen Consumers Who Say The Economy in the Local Area to be Stronger in The Next Six Months % Much Stronger / Somewhat Stronger Total Brazil Saudi Arabia India China Mexico Argentina Indonesia Japan Turkey United States Russia Spain Canada Italy South Korea Australia Germany South Africa Great Britain Poland Sweden Hungary Norway Belgium France 3% 16% 16% 15% 15% 15% 14% 14% 14% 12% 8% 7% 6% 23% 28% 27% 25% 39% 39% 36% 33% 46% 51% 64% Looking ahead 6 months from now, do you expect the economy in your local area to be much stronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or much weaker than it is now? The Economic Pulse 46

47 Apr 2010 May 2010 Jun 2010 Jul 2010 Aug 2010 Sept 2010 Oct 2010 Nov 2010 Dec 2010 Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Mar 2011 Apr 2011 May 2011 Jun 2011 Jul 2011 Aug 2011 Sept 2011 Oct 2011 Nov 2011 Dec 2011 Jan 2012 Feb 2012 Mar 2012 Apr 2012 May 2012 Jun 2012 Jul 2012 Aug 2012 Sep 2012 Oct 2012 Nov 2012 Dec 2012 Jan 2013 Feb 2013 Mar 2013 Apr 2013 May 2013 Citizen Consumers Who Say The Economy in the Local Area to be Stronger in The Next Six Months N/C Global Total % Much Stronger / Somewhat Stronger 70% 60% 50% 30% 31% 30% 30% 29% 28% 28% 28% 29% 27% 27% 28% 26% 27% 27% 26% 25% 24% 24% 24% 24% 24% 25% 24% 26% 24% 24% 23% 23% 23% 23% 22% 23% 23% 24% 25% 24% 23% 23% 0% Looking ahead six months from now, do you expect the economy in your local area to be much stronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or much weaker than it is now? The Economic Pulse 47

48 Nov 10 Dec 10 Citizen Consumers Who Say The Economy in the Local Area to be Stronger in The Next Six Months Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug % Much Stronger/Somewhat Stronger Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 12 Total 29% 27% 27% 28% 26% 27% 27% 26% 25% 24% 24% 24% 24% 24% 25% 24% 26% 24% 24% 23% 23% 23% 23% 22% 23% 23% 24% 25% 24% 23% 23% Argentina 44% 43% 42% 44% 44% 42% 45% 47% 47% 52% 52% 50% 47% 45% 42% 43% 47% 44% 44% 38% 39% 41% 42% 41% 39% 38% 38% 36% Australia 27% 24% 23% 24% 22% 23% 19% 19% 16% 16% 16% 18% 16% 19% 16% 16% 16% 14% 16% 15% 16% 16% 17% 18% 18% 12% 17% 15% 14% 14% Belgium 12% 12% 13% 13% 14% 15% 11% 14% 6% 8% 8% 4% 5% 6% 5% 7% 6% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 6% 5% 9% 4% 7% 6% 6% Brazil 76% 78% 73% 73% 67% 72% 71% 64% 71% 71% 65% 74% 72% 71% 74% 69% 71% 75% 67% 69% 66% 65% 70% 74% 73% 73% 72% 69% 70% 68% 64% Canada 27% 27% 31% 29% 28% 28% 26% 25% 24% 18% 15% 19% 19% 19% 21% 22% 21% 18% 19% 17% 18% 21% 15% 18% 17% 18% 18% 16% 15% China 48% 44% 49% 49% 42% 44% 39% 36% 35% 44% 39% 42% 32% 39% 34% 42% 36% 39% 34% 38% 36% 32% 35% 45% 35% 43% 45% 46% 38% 39% France 4% 4% 5% 4% 4% 4% 4% 5% 3% 4% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 4% 6% 5% 9% 6% 5% 4% 4% 3% 4% 3% 3% 2% 3% 3% 3% Germany 35% 27% 30% 28% 26% 24% 26% 22% 22% 18% 16% 12% 15% 13% 18% 17% 17% 14% 13% 16% 14% 11% 13% 15% 15% 22% 18% 18% 14% Great 13% 12% 13% 11% Britain 8% 12% 14% 9% 9% 8% 9% 7% 9% 12% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 12% 8% 7% 9% 9% 12% Hungary 13% 12% 15% 11% 7% 8% 8% 6% 5% 6% 3% 5% 6% 8% 7% 7% 6% 7% 6% 5% 7% 6% 5% 8% 9% 8% 9% 8% India 65% 61% 55% 61% 55% 55% 50% 52% 43% 52% 54% 56% 50% 50% 50% 56% 57% 55% 54% 50% 53% 53% 48% 44% 50% 53% 46% 45% 47% 45% 46% Indonesia 34% 30% 26% 26% 29% 28% 32% 29% 29% 28% 29% 28% 32% 37% 32% 28% 26% 26% 31% 31% 32% 32% 31% 41% 36% 39% 41% 36% 35% 33% Italy 16% 15% 18% 16% 17% 15% 15% 15% 13% 14% 11% 21% 12% 15% 19% 19% 14% 12% 12% 12% 13% 9% 11% 11% 14% 17% 14% 12% 15% Japan 8% 8% 8% 9% 8% 9% 9% 7% 7% 6% 7% 8% 8% 12% 9% 7% 7% 8% 7% 7% 5% 8% 8% 18% 24% 23% 28% Mexico 30% 36% 33% 37% 43% 38% 41% 37% 39% 36% 34% 36% 39% 39% 36% 42% 46% 43% 39% 39% 37% 41% 43% 38% 47% 38% 38% 39% Norway 7% Poland 19% 21% 12% 19% 14% 17% 13% 15% 16% 18% 19% 15% 13% 16% 16% 12% 15% 12% 16% 15% 13% 11% 8% 12% 11% 9% 11% 12% 13% Russia 24% 16% 16% 18% 18% 18% 16% 16% 13% 16% 15% 17% 15% 17% 15% 14% 18% 14% 11% 13% 17% 14% 15% 15% 14% 14% 15% 16% 16% Saudi 45% 47% 45% 52% 56% 60% 59% 60% 62% 64% 57% 53% 54% 60% 63% 57% 59% 57% 57% 52% 59% 47% 46% 44% 47% 48% 53% 56% 53% 51% 51% Arabia South 27% 27% 28% 22% 16% 16% 21% 23% 17% 15% 16% 16% 16% 21% 16% 15% 15% 13% 22% 11% 14% 14% 15% 13% 13% 14% Africa South 22% 25% 22% 25% 19% 14% 17% 12% 15% 13% 15% 14% 14% 12% 11% 14% 11% 14% 15% 14% 13% 15% 16% 13% 12% 15% 19% 14% 17% 14% 15% Korea Spain 21% 21% 21% 23% 22% 18% 18% 15% 23% 17% 21% 18% 15% 18% 16% 14% 18% 13% 12% 12% 11% 11% 9% 14% 15% 15% 12% 16% Sweden 19% 16% 21% 17% 18% 17% 16% 15% 14% 14% 11% 16% 12% 16% 12% 17% 15% 15% 14% 16% 19% 12% 9% 12% 15% 13% Turkey 27% 23% 30% 32% 28% 32% 34% 36% 38% 25% 35% 28% 35% 31% 34% 39% 34% 25% 30% 29% 26% 27% 23% 24% 26% 26% 34% 31% 25% 27% United 29% 25% 27% 27% 21% 24% 25% 22% 22% 17% 17% 16% 23% 26% 26% 26% 25% 25% 24% 28% 28% 30% 25% 29% 24% 24% 25% 23% 24% 25% States Looking ahead six months from now, do you expect the economy in your local area to be much stronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or much weaker than it is now? Feb 12 Mar 12 Apr 12 May 12 Jun 12 Jul 12 Aug 12 Sep 12 Oct 12 Nov 12 Dec 12 Jan 13 Feb 13 Mar 13 Apr 13 May 13 The Economic Pulse 48

49 Countries Ranked and Marked By Change In Assessment From Last Month (Left Column): Looking ahead six months from now, do you expect the economy in your local area to be much stronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or much weaker than it is now? Total (N/C) Japan (+5) Spain (+4) Italy (+3) Great Britain (+3) Turkey (+2) India (+1) China (+1) Mexico (+1) United States (+1) South Korea (+1) South Africa (+1) Saudi Arabia (N/C) Russia (N/C) Australia (N/C) Belgium (N/C) France (N/C) Canada (-1) Hungary (-1) Argentina (-2) Indonesia (-2) Poland (-3) Sweden (-3) Brazil (-4) Germany (-4) 3% 16% 15% 12% 15% 14% 16% 14% 6% 15% 8% 14% 23% 25% 28% 27% Green marks countries experiencing improvement; Blue marks countries with no change from last month; Red marks countries experiencing a decline. 33% 36% 39% 39% 46% 51% 64% The Economic Pulse 49

50 Countries Ranked by Net Improvement, Decline or No Change Compared to Last Month: Looking ahead six months from now, do you expect the economy in your local area to be much stronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or much weaker than it is now? - -15% - -5% 0% 5% 15% -4% -4% -3% -3% Japan (+5) Spain (+4) -2% -2% Italy (+3) Great Britain (+3) Turkey (+2) India (+1) China (+1) Mexico (+1) United States (+1) South Korea (+1) South Africa (+1) Saudi Arabia (N/C) Russia (N/C) Australia (N/C) Belgium (N/C) France (N/C) -1% -1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% Canada (-1) Hungary (-1) 3% 3% Argentina (-2) Indonesia (-2) Poland (-3) Sweden (-3) Brazil (-4) Germany (-4) 4% 5% The Economic Pulse 50

51 Mar 2010 Apr 2010 May 2010 Jun 2010 Jul 2010 Aug 2010 Sept 2010 Oct 2010 Nov 2010 Dec 2010 Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Mar 2011 Apr 2011 May 2011 Jun 2011 Jul 2011 Aug 2011 Sept 2011 Oct 2011 Nov 2011 Dec 2011 Jan 2012 Feb 2012 Mar 2012 Apr 2012 May 2012 Jun 2012 Jul 2012 Aug 2012 Sep 2012 Oct 2012 Nov 2012 Dec 2012 Jan 2013 Feb 2013 Mar 2013 Apr 2013 May 2013 All Regions - Citizen Consumers Who Say The Economy in the Local Area to be Stronger in The Next Six Months % Much Stronger/Somewhat Stronger 60% 55% 50% 48% 38% 46% 41% 34% 30% 19% 31% 27% 16% 0% North America LATAM Europe APAC G-8 Countries BRIC Middle East/Africa Looking ahead six months from now, do you expect the economy in your local area to be much stronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or much weaker than it is now? The Economic Pulse 51

52 Mar 2010 Apr 2010 May 2010 Jun 2010 Jul 2010 Aug 2010 Sept 2010 Oct 2010 Nov 2010 Dec 2010 Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Mar 2011 Apr 2011 May 2011 Jun 2011 Jul 2011 Aug 2011 Sept 2011 Oct 2011 Nov 2011 Dec 2011 Jan 2012 Feb 2012 Mar 2012 Apr 2012 May 2012 Jun 2012 Jul 2012 Aug 2012 Sep 2012 Oct 2012 Nov 2012 Dec 2012 Jan 2013 Feb 2013 Mar 2013 Apr 2013 May 2013 North American Countries - Citizen Consumers Who Say The Economy in the Local Area to be Stronger in The Next Six Months N/C % Much Stronger/Somewhat Stronger 50% 45% 38% 35% 30% 31% 25% 25% 15% 15% United States Canada Looking ahead six months from now, do you expect the economy in your local area to be much stronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or much weaker than it is now? The Economic Pulse 52

53 Mar 2010 Apr 2010 May 2010 Jun 2010 Jul 2010 Aug 2010 Sept 2010 Oct 2010 Nov 2010 Dec 2010 Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Mar 2011 Apr 2011 May 2011 Jun 2011 Jul 2011 Aug 2011 Sept 2011 Oct 2011 Nov 2011 Dec 2011 Jan 2012 Feb 2012 Mar 2012 Apr 2012 May 2012 Jun 2012 Jul 2012 Aug 2012 Sep 2012 Oct 2012 Nov 2012 Dec 2012 Jan 2013 Feb 2013 Mar 2013 Apr 2013 May 2013 LATAM Countries - Citizen Consumers Who Say The Economy in the Local Area to be Stronger in The Next Six Months 2 % Much Stronger/Somewhat Stronger 90% 80% 79% 70% 60% 64% 50% 34% 30% 32% 39% 36% 0% Brazil Argentina Mexico Looking ahead six months from now, do you expect the economy in your local area to be much stronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or much weaker than it is now? The Economic Pulse 53

54 Mar 2010 Apr 2010 May 2010 Jun 2010 Jul 2010 Aug 2010 Sept 2010 Oct 2010 Nov 2010 Dec 2010 Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Mar 2011 Apr 2011 May 2011 Jun 2011 Jul 2011 Aug 2011 Sept 2011 Oct 2011 Nov 2011 Dec 2011 Jan 2012 Feb 2012 Mar 2012 Apr 2012 May 2012 Jun 2012 Jul 2012 Aug 2012 Sep 2012 Oct 2012 Nov 2012 Dec 2012 Jan 2013 Feb 2013 Mar 2013 Apr 2013 May 2013 European Countries - Citizen Consumers Who Say The Economy in the Local Area to be Stronger in The Next Six Months 1 % Much Stronger/Somewhat Stronger 35% 30% 28% 25% 23% 22% 19% 18% 15% 5% 5% 16% 15% 14% 12% 8% 7% 6% 3% 0% Germany France Spain Sweden Great Britain Belgium Italy Hungary Poland Norway Looking ahead six months from now, do you expect the economy in your local area to be much stronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or much weaker than it is now? The Economic Pulse 54

55 Mar 2010 Apr 2010 May 2010 Jun 2010 Jul 2010 Aug 2010 Sept 2010 Oct 2010 Nov 2010 Dec 2010 Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Mar 2011 Apr 2011 May 2011 Jun 2011 Jul 2011 Aug 2011 Sep 2011 Oct 2011 Nov 2011 Dec 2011 Jan 2012 Feb 2012 Mar 2012 Apr 2012 May 2012 Jun 2012 Jul 2012 Aug 2012 Sep 2012 Oct 2012 Nov 2012 Dec 2012 Jan 2013 Feb 2013 Mar 2013 Apr 2013 May 2013 APAC Countries - Citizen Consumers Who Say The Economy in the Local Area to be Stronger in The Next Six Months N/C % Much Stronger/Somewhat Stronger 80% 70% 66% 60% 57% 50% 36% 30% 31% 21% 17% 11% 46% 39% 33% 28% 16% 15% 14% 0% Australia China India Japan Russia South Korea Indonesia Looking ahead six months from now, do you expect the economy in your local area to be much stronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or much weaker than it is now? The Economic Pulse 55

56 Mar 2010 Apr 2010 May 2010 Jun 2010 Jul 2010 Aug 2010 Sept 2010 Oct 2010 Nov 2010 Dec 2010 Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Mar 2011 Apr 2011 May 2011 Jun 2011 Jul 2011 Aug 2011 Sept 2011 Oct 2011 Nov 2011 Dec 2011 Jan 2012 Feb 2012 Mar 2012 Apr 2012 May 2012 Jun 2012 Jul 2012 Aug 2012 Sep 2012 Oct 2012 Nov 2012 Dec 2012 Jan 2013 Feb 2013 Mar 2013 Apr 2013 May 2013 G8 Countries - Citizen Consumers Who Say The Economy in the Local Area to be Stronger in The Next Six Months 1 % Much Stronger/Somewhat Stronger 35% 38% 30% 25% 23% 18% 17% 15% 11% 28% 25% 16% 15% 15% 14% 12% 5% 0% 5% 3% Great Britain Canada France Germany Japan Italy Russia United States Looking ahead six months from now, do you expect the economy in your local area to be much stronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or much weaker than it is now? The Economic Pulse 56

57 Mar 2010 Apr 2010 May 2010 Jun 2010 Jul 2010 Aug 2010 Sept 2010 Oct 2010 Nov 2010 Dec 2010 Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Mar 2011 Apr 2011 May 2011 Jun 2011 Jul 2011 Aug 2011 Sept 2011 Oct 2011 Nov 2011 Dec 2011 Jan 2012 Feb 2012 Mar 2012 Apr 2012 May 2012 Jun 2012 Jul 2012 Aug 2012 Sep 2012 Oct 2012 Nov 2012 Dec 2012 Jan 2013 Feb 2013 Mar 2013 Apr 2013 May 2013 BRIC Countries - Citizen Consumers Who Say The Economy in the Local Area to be Stronger in The Next Six Months 1 90% % Much Stronger/Somewhat Stronger 80% 79% 70% 66% 60% 57% 50% 64% 46% 39% 30% 17% 16% 0% Brazil Russia India China Looking ahead six months from now, do you expect the economy in your local area to be much stronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or much weaker than it is now? The Economic Pulse 57

58 Mar 2010 Apr 2010 May 2010 Jun 2010 Jul 2010 Aug 2010 Sept 2010 Oct 2010 Nov 2010 Dec 2010 Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Mar 2011 Apr 2011 May 2011 Jun 2011 Jul 2011 Aug 2011 Sept 2011 Oct 2011 Nov 2011 Dec 2011 Jan 2012 Feb 2012 Mar 2012 Apr 2012 May 2012 Jun 2012 Jul 2012 Aug 2012 Sep 2012 Oct 2012 Nov 2012 Dec 2012 Jan 2013 Feb 2013 Mar 2013 Apr 2013 May 2013 Middle East/African Countries - Citizen Consumers Who Say The Economy in the Local Area to be Stronger in The Next Six Months 1 % Much Stronger/Somewhat Stronger 70% 60% 50% 44% 51% 38% 32% 30% 27% 14% 0% Turkey Saudi Arabia South Africa Looking ahead six months from now, do you expect the economy in your local area to be much stronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or much weaker than it is now? The Economic Pulse 58