The Role of the IPCC in Global Climate Protection

Transcription

1 WMO INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE UNEP The Role of the IPCC in Global Climate Protection Presentation by Renate Christ, Secretary of the IPCC Warsaw, 2 October 2008

2 to provide policymakers with an objective source of information about causes of climate change, potential environmental and socio-economic impacts, possible response options. Why the IPCC? Established by WMO and UNEP in 1988

3 What is climate change? IPCC refers to both natural processes and anthropogenic factors that produce climate change

4 The IPCC Role Collects and assesses for the use of decisionmakers the best available scientific, technical and socioeconomic information relevant to understanding the risk of Climate Change, potential impacts and response options. Provide scientific technical and methodological advice to the UNFCCC The IPCC does not conduct any research nor does it monitor climate related data or parameters.

5 IPCC and the Policy Process UNGA 42 asked for establishment of IPCC and UNGA 43 requested interim report and recommendations 1990 UNGA 45 established INC after 1 st IPCC AR was presented UNFCCC adopted in 1992, entry into force 1994 Since then IPCC provided scientific technical and methodological advice to the UNFCCC SAR Kyoto Protocol TAR 2001 Importance of impacts and adaptation AR Post Kyoto Negotiations

6 Key «Rules» for IPCC Work COMPREHENSIVE all the latest relevant scientific, technical and socio-economic literature published wordwide is assessed BALANCED differring views are reflected in the reports OPEN selection of authors from all countries and relevant discipline, wide review process by experts and governments TRANSPARENT strict clear procedures

7 IPCC Reports are policy-relevant, NOT policy-prescriptive

8 IPCC Structure IPCC Plenary IPCC Bureau IPCC Secretariat Working Group 1 The Scientific Basis Working Group 2 Vulnerability Impacts Adaptation Working Group 3 Mitigation Task Force on National Greenhouse Gas Inventories TSU TSU TSU TSU Authors - Contributors - Reviewers - Review Editors Peer reviewed scientific, technical and socio-economic literature

9 The IPCC Bureau The IPCC Chairperson and the bureau are elected by the Plenary It is at present composed by 30 members, experts on climate representing all regions Mr. Rajendra Pachauri IPCC Chairman Nominations for the position of the IPCC Chair, the IPCC Bureau and any Task Force Bureau are to be made by the government of a Member of the IPCC. New Bureau elected on 4 September 2008

10 The three WGs WG1 The physical science basis of the climate system and change, attribution of CC, Obsered changes and projections of future CC WG2 Vulnerability of natural and human systems; observed and projected impacts and adaptive responses to actual and projected CC WG3 Scientific- technical, environmetal and socio-economic aspects of mitigation measures

11 IPCC Products Assessment reports provide a comprehensive picture of the present state of understanding of climate change ( ). Special reports address and assess a specific issue (e.g. Ozone layer, Land use, Technology transfer) Methodology reports provide methodologies for national greenhouse gas inventories and are used by Parties to the UNFCCC to prepare their national communications Technical papers focus on a specif topic drawing material from other IPCC reports

12 IPCC Writing and Review Process PLENARY approves outline PLENARY Accepts/approves report Authors selection Government distribution 1 st DRAFT 2 nd DRAFT FINAL DRAFT Expert review Expert + government review Peer reviewed scientific technical literature

13 Authors, contributors, reviewers and other experts They are selected by the Working Group Bureaus from nominations received from governments and participating organizations or identified directly because of their special expertise reflected in their publications and works. The composition of lead author teams for chapters of IPCC reports shall reflect a range of views, expertise and geographical representation.

14 The Review Process Review is an essential part of the IPCC process to ensure objective and complete assessment of the current information. In the course of the multi-stage review process, both expert reviewers and governments are invited to comment on the accuracy and completeness of the scientific/technical/socioeconomic content and the overall balance of the drafts.

15 What is an SPM? The Summaries for Policy Makers is a key document of the report. It is approved line by line by the governments during the Plenary session. It represents the highest synthesis of the double nature of the IPCC: the core scientific findings are reflected andendorsed by government It s a sort of digest of the Assessment Report, containing the key scientific findings, to convey the key messages of the reports themselves to a broader audience than the scientific community.

16 Climate Change the IPCC 4th Assessment Report - February,, WG1 The Physical Science Basis April, WG 2 Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability May, WG3 Mitigation of CC November «The Synthesis Report»

17 Contributions from Scientists and Governments have Increased Over Time For example Working Group I: 1990 Report: 365 pages, 170 lead and contributing authors from 25 countries and 200 reviewers 35 countries at final plenary 2007 Report: 987 pages, 152 lead authors and 400 contributing authors from 400 countries and 600 reviewers 113 countries at final plenary IPCC

18 A Progression of Understanding: Greater and Greater Certainty in Attribution FAR (1990): unequivocal detection not likely for a decade SAR (1995): balance of evidence suggests discernible human influence TAR (2001): most of the warming of the past 50 years is likely (odds 2 out of 3) due to human activities AR4 (2007): most of the warming is very likely (odds 9 out of 10) due to greenhouse gases FAR SAR TAR AR4 IPCC

19 Progress in understanding the Nature of Projected Impacts: e.g. Water SAR and TAR: Projected decreases in Mid and Lower latitudes (single model): AR4: used multiple models to indicate uncertainty:

20 GHG Stabilization and Temperature The lower the stabilization, the earlier global GHG should go down IPCC

21 Post-AR4: Closing the Loop Between Mitigation and Impacts (Parry, et al., Nature Reviews Climate Change, 2008) IPCC

22 Post AR4: Closing the Loop Between Mitigation and Impacts

23 Nobel Peace Prize 2007 IPCC together with Mr Gore «for their efforts to build up and disseminate greater knowledge about man-made climate change, and to lay the foundations for the measures that are needed to counteract such change"

24 Which reports to prepare? IPCC Plenary decides on topic and scope of reports Main activity are comprehensive assessment reports updating the knowledge in regular intervals (5-6 years) Other reports upon request from the UNFCCC, i.e. Special Reports and Methodology Reports Upon request from other relevant bodies, e.g. CBD, ISDR As decided by the IPCC Guidelines on priorities for IPCC work All decisions about new report taken by the IPCC IPCC can also say no

25 Upcoming IPCC activities Special Report on Renewable energy sources Possible Special Report on Extreme Events Methodology work as required by UNFCCC 5 th Assessment Report 2013/14 Future changes in climate, impacts and socio economic conditions based on new scenarios currently prepared by the scientific community Focus on response measures in an integrated manner Economics of vulnerability and adaptation Regional changes in climate and its impacts