How do Ports adapt to the Changing Patterns in Container Shipping? Drewry Maritime Advisors. October 14 th 2015 TOC Americas - Panama

Transcription

1 How do Ports adapt to the Changing Patterns in Container Shipping? Drewry Maritime Advisors October 14 th 2015 TOC Americas - Panama Michel Donner, Senior Advisor donner@drewry.co.uk

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4 Agenda Adapt to what? How? 4

5 A non-virtuous circle The global container shipping industry trend is to build and deploy larger vessels on all trade routes, in search of economies of scale. - Poor financial performance - Slower global trade growth - Search of economies of scale through increase of vessels sizes - Widespread overcapacity and poor utilisation rates - Cooperation between shipping lines in the form of VSAs (Vessel Sharing Agreements), joint services and alliances - Dropping freight rates Shipping lines will deploy ships from the lower bracket of the 8-14,000 TEU category even in trades where only a few ports are equipped to handle them, as has been seen in South America and Oceania. Vessels of 9,400 TEU capacity have already been seen in South and West Africa. Source: Drewry Maritime Advisors An equilibrium will be found through providing direct services to the largest ports and running feeder services to smaller ports. The optimal balance and border-line are not known, however the shipping lines network designers are prompt to adjust networks and vessel deployments. 5

6 Vessel Capacity, TEU Global Container Shipping Industry Trends The containership orderbook is dominated by the 14,000+ teu but also the 8-10,000 teu. Evolution of the global fleet , ,000 For the rest of 2015, ULCVs from 10,000 teus upwards will continue to roll out of the yards at a pace of one a week. 500, , , ,000 Vessel sizes in South America mid 2015 largest average Santos 10, Callao 9, (teu) 100, Source: Drewry Maritime Research

7 Bigger ships and the pressure on ports infrastructure Examples from the South Atlantic SAMMAX 8000 teu Source : Datamar/Porto de Itajai Cap San Nicolas 9700 teu - Source APMT Buenos Aires 7 MSC Loretta, at 304m LOA and 40m beam 6750 teu MSC Arbatax 9400/7100 teu - Source Roberto Smera, Santos

8 The counterpart of vessels upsizing is terminals upsizing. It is the whole port infra- and super-structure that needs upsizing, causing significant increases in ports and terminals CAPEX and OPEX. the dimensioning of the quayside and its superstructure is changing radically. The big ships require: Larger (and more) cranes Longer berths Deeper berths and approach channels (-15m or deeper) Farther outreach ( > 23 boxes, even 25) Greater air draft Higher crane and berth productivity More back reach, larger yard/gate operation..and suitable inland transport links Inventory of super-post-panamax gantry cranes Upsizing of container cranes >2000 This type of cranes can cost between $8 and 10 million apiece. Orderbook by outreach (2014) Source: Drewry Maritime Advisors rows rows rows 22+ rows Panamax 8

9 Typology of container terminal projects Averages from a sample of 50 projects, in 23 countries, and 3 regions: Latam, Africa, South and South-East Asia quay length 1,045 m Greenfield & Brownfield projects water depth 15,8 m area 60 ha capacity 1,4 million teu/y 24% greenfield brownfield The proportion of greenfield is increasing, partly due to shortage of room for port growth inside the city-ports 76% greenfield 76% brownfield 24% 9 Source: Drewry Maritime Advisors

10 Brazil: more of the same Ratings agency Standard & Poor s downgraded Brazil s debt status, due to widespread economic difficulties steep inflation, rising unemployment falling GDP hit from the commodities price crash Nation s policy makers ability to turn things around and 2015 have been wasted, in terms of implementation of the 2013 port law. The famed dredging plan has not been finalized properly in several ports. Santos has recurrent difficulties to come to terms with its maintenance dredging issues. In August, Pilots and Harbour Master proposed to reduce the maximum authorized draft to 13m, due to points of silting that were not properly remedied Newly appointed minister of Ports (SEP) is ex-minister of Fishing and Fisheries. That s what Brazilians call trocar 6 por meia duzia, Brazilian observers adding in the Port sector, he will remain as much a fish out of the water as he already was in the Fishing & Fisheries. Reflecting a growing impatience with politically motivated appointments in technical ministries. 10

11 Premature obsolescence of existing terminals While vessel upsizing and terminal upsizing follow different rhythms, the issue of the early obsolescence of some existing modern container could become a preoccupation for Port Authorities Vessel upsizing and terminal upsizing follow different rhythms: From 18 months to build one new mega-ship, and up to 3 years to build a series of 10 sisterships. Timing disconnect raises the question of the risk of a premature obsolescence of existing modern terminal capacity. - The MSC home terminal in Antwerp - ECT Rotterdam - Colombo JCT/UCT terminals From 5 to 10 years to build a new terminal. In Colombo, where transhipment is the mainstay, the recently (2014) commissioned China Merchants CICT (Colombo International Container) has mega-ship capability, have achieved 141% growth Jan-Aug 2015 over the same period in Conversely, state-owned terminals Jaya and Unity terminals (JCT/UCT) have suffered 12% volume decrease in 2015, and 18% in August alone. This is largely attributed to CICT s ability to handle 10,000-TEUers, while JCT/UCT are not deep enough to receive them. This latter feature leads observers to comment that in the next decade JCT/UCT face the prospect of becoming obsolete. There is thus a material disconnect between shipbuilding and terminal building time-frames. This confirms the need and the difficulty to plan and implement port developments at the same time carefully and well ahead, with particular attention given to the dimensioning of the facilities to be built. 11

12 Freight rates crisis The case of ECSA: SB continues falling, NB slightly better Southbound Asia to ECSA utilisation v rates Northbound ECSA to Europe utilisation v rates Southbound Europe to ECSA utilisation vs rates Sources: Drewry Maritime Research (); Drewry Container Freight Rate Insight (/cfri) 12

13 Novelties M & A activity continues Shipbuilding continues APMT acquires terminal company Grupo TCB Yildrim Group takes control of Tertir, which holds a controlling stake in the Paita concessionaire consortium Mexican entrepreneur Fernando Chico Pardo acquisition of 49% in the SSA Marine parent firm, from Goldman Sachs, in 2014 Maersk orders nine 14,000 TEU ships. The company said they have taken a new approach. The vessels will be designed to operate in and perform efficiently across many trades and not just designed for one specific trade. According to some analysts, these ships are not neo-panamaxes. COSCO and CSCL merger : timeline and impact on alliances and terminals portfolios Premature obsolescence of existing terminal installations 13

14 Thank You 14

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