Projections and Characteristics of the 60+ Population

Transcription

1 Projections and Characteristics of the 60+ Population SHAHLA MEHDIZADEH, KARL CHOW, WENXUAN HUANG, SUZANNE KUNKEL, JANE STRAKER, ANTHONY BARDO Scripps Gerontology Center An Center of Excellence

2 Projections and Characteristics of the 60+ Population Project Team: Shahla A. Mehdizadeh, Ph.D. Karl Chow, MBA Wenxuan Huang, MGS Suzanne R. Kunkel, Ph.D. Jane K. Straker, Ph.D. Antony Bardo, MGS Scripps Gerontology Center Miami University January 2014 This research was funded as part of a grant from the General Assembly, through the Board of Regents to the Long- Term Care Research Project. For additional information about this funding source see scripps@miamioh.edu; and for this report see or contact us at Scripps Gerontology Center, Miami University, Oxford, OH 45056; (513) ; scripps@miamioh.edu. Suggested citation: Scripps Gerontology Center (2013). Projections and Characteristics of the 60+ Population. Scripps Gerontology Center, Miami University, Oxford, OH. Available at 1 Cover.xls

3 This report describes the characteristics of s 60-plus population in 2010, and changes in that population since This chart book also includes population characteristics such as education, income level, marital status, and living alone status, that have been shown to be associated with need for long-term care services and supports. There are also charts that compare the older population of with the U.S. as a whole. In addition, the projected size of the 60+ population and those with physical and/or cognitive disability are included. These projections are intended to assist planners, decisions makers, and service providers in preparing for the aging population, particularly those with needs for assistance. Profile of 60+ Population U.S. (2010) Total Population Percent of Population Age 60+ Percent at or Below Poverty Median Income Percent White Percent Married Percent with High School Diploma Or Higher Education Percent Having Grandchildren Living at Home Percent of 65+ Medicaid Recipient 1,963,489 2,287,424 57,085, $15,400 $20,320 $20, Source: United States Department of Commerce. Bureau of the Census. American Community Survey (ACS): Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS), Overall.xls

4 6% 5.8% 60+ Population as a Percentage of Total Population by Age Group, % % 3.4% 3.2% 3% 2.9% 2.6% 2% 1.9% 2.1% 1% 1.3% % 0.1% 0.1% Total Population (2010) 11,536, Population (2010) 2,287,414 Total Population (2000) 11,353, Population (2000) 1,963,489 U.S. Population (2010) 308,745, Population as a Percentage of Total Population by Age Group for and U.S., % 5.8% 5.4% U.S. 4% 4.2% 4. 3% 2% 3.2% % 2.4% 2.1% 1.9% 1% 1.3% 1.2% % 0.1% Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000: Public Use Microdata Sample: 5-Percent. United States Department of Commerce. Bureau of the Census. American Community Survey (ACS): Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS), Age.xls

5 Distribution of 60+ Population by Education Distribution of 60+ Population by Education and U.S., 2010 U.S % % % % % 10.2% 5.4% 7.6% % 14.8% % 12.9% 7.6% 10.3% 6th Grade or Less 7th- 12th (No Diploma) High School Graduate Some College Bachelor's Degree Graduate Degree 6th Grade or Less 7th- 12th (No Diploma) High School Graduate Some College Bachelor's Degree Graduate Degree 60+ Population (2000) 60+ Population (2010) U.S 60+ Population (2010) 1,963,489 2,287,414 57,085,908 Distribution of 60+ Population by Education and Gender 2010 Men Women % % % 18.6% 21.1% % 2.4% % 10.3% 5.6% 6th Grade or Less 7th- 12th (No Diploma) High School Graduate Some College Bachelor's Degree Graduate Degree Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000: Public Use Microdata Sample: 5-Percent. United States Department of Commerce. Bureau of the Census. American Community Survey (ACS): Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS), Education.xls

6 60+ Population by Race, Population by Race, 2010 Black Non- Hispanic, 8.4% Other Races Non- Hispanic, 1.2% Hispanic, 0.7% Black Non- Hispanic, 8.6% Other Races Non-Hispanic, 1.6% Hispanic, 1.1% White Non- Hispanic, 89.7% White Non- Hispanic, 88.7% U.S. 60+ Population by Race, 2010 County 60+ Population (2000) County 60+ population (2010) County Total Population (2000) County Total Population (2010) Total Population (2010) 60+ Population (2010) 188, , , ,374 11,536,494 2,287,414 Other Races Non- Hispanic, 5.1% Hispanic, 7.3% Black Non- Hispanic, 8.9% White Non- Hispanic, 78.7% 60+ Population (2000) 60+ Population (2010) U.S. 60+ Population (2010) 1,963,489 2,287,414 57,085,908 Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000: Public Use Microdata Sample: 5-Percent. United States Department of Commerce. Bureau of the Census. American Community Survey (ACS): Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS), Race-Pie.xls

7 6 Distribution of 60+ Population by Marital Status W/D/S = Widowed/Divorced/Separated 58.3% Distribution of 60+ Population by Marital Status and U.S., 2010 W/D/S = Widowed/Divorced/Separated 57.7% U.S % 37.6% 37.6% 36.9% % 4.9% 4.9% 5. Married W/D/S Never Married Married W/D/S Never Married 60+ Population (2000) 1,963, Population (2010) 2,287, Population (Men) in ,005, Population (Women) in ,281,555 U.S. 60+ Population (2010) 57,085,908 8 Distribution of 60+ Population by Marital Status and Gender, 2010 W/D/S = Widowed/Divorced/Separated Men Women 10 Distribution of 60+ Population by Marital Status and Age Group, 2010 Married Widowed/Divorced/Separated Never Married % 46.4% 23.3% 48.8% % 29.1% % 54.6% 41.2% 52.3% 43.4% 65.2% 30.6% 81.4% 14.2% % 1 6.1% 4.9% 4.2% 4.2% 4.3% 4.2% 4.4% Married W/D/S Never Married Marital Status Age Group (Population) Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000: Public Use Microdata Sample: 5-Percent. United States Department of Commerce. Bureau of the Census. American Community Survey (ACS): Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS), Marita.xls

8 4 Proportion of 60+ Population Who Live Alone, Proportion of 60+ Population Who Live Alone and U.S., % % 27.8% 25.6% U.S. 60+ Population (2000) 1,963, Population (2010) 2,287, Population (Men) in ,005, Population (Women) in ,281,555 U.S. 60+ Population (2010) 57,085,908 Proportion of 60+ Population Who Live Alone by Age Group, 2010 Proportion of 60+ Population Who Live Alone by Gender and Age Group, Men Women % % 31.2% 40.1% 48.8% 58.8% % 22.3% 16.9% 16.4% % 19.4% 49.8% 26.1% 58.8% 30.6% 64.1% 45.1% Age Group Age Group (Population) Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000: Public Use Microdata Sample: 5-Percent. United States Department of Commerce. Bureau of the Census. American Community Survey (ACS): Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS), Living.xls

9 4 Distribution of 60+ Population by Income-to-Poverty- Threshold Ratio, 2000 and Distribution of 60+ Population by Income-to Poverty- Threshold Ratio, 2010 U.S. 37.4% % 32.8% % 11.8% 18.7% 19.9% % 15.9% % 11.7% 19.9% % 17.6% % 1 Less than or more Income-to-Poverty-Threshold Ratio Less than or more Income-to-Poverty-Threshold Ratio Federal Poverty Threshold in 2010* Poverty Persons in family Poverty Guideline (65 and older) Guideline (Younger than 65) 1 $ 11, $ 10, $ 14, $ 13, Population (2000) 1,963,489 3 $ 17, $ 17, Population (2010) 2,287,414 4 $ 22, $ 22, Population (Men) in ,005,859 5 $ 26, $ 26, Population (Women) in ,281,555 6 $ 29, $ 29, U.S. 60+ Population (2010) 57,085,908 *U.S. Census Bureau. Poverty thresholds by Size of Family and Number of Children. Retrieved August 5, 2013 from Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000: Public Use Microdata Sample: 5-Percent. United States Department of Commerce. Bureau of the Census. American Community Survey (ACS): Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS), Poverty.xls

10 Proportion 60+ Population at or Below Poverty Threshold Income by Gender and Age Group, 2010 Proportion of 60+ Population at 4 or More Times Poverty Threshold Income by Gender and Age Group, 2010 Men Women Men Women % % % 42.6% 34.9% % % 9.2% 8.9% 11.6% 6.9% 7.1% % % 20.4% % 23.7% 17.1% 22.8% 21.1% 15.4% 15.1% Age Group Age Group In 2010, about 12% of the 60+ population in had an annual income at or below the poverty level (about $11,000 for an individual 65 and older). Nearly 2 lived between poverty and two times the poverty income level (between $11,344 and about $22,700). Compared to the U.S. as a whole, a higher percentage of s 60+ population had incomes below three times the poverty threshold (51.8% v. 48.8%), and a lower percentage of its older population had incomes in the highest category of at least four times the poverty threshold (32.8% v. 37.4%). Poverty is more prevalent among older women in : Within all age groups, the percentage of older women in poverty exceeds that of men. On the other hand, a lower percentage of women had income four of more times poverty threshold income at every age compared to men. Source: United States Department of Commerce. Bureau of the Census. American Community Survey (ACS): Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS), Poverty.xls

11 Projections of 60+ Population as a Percentage of Total Population for and U.S., US 25.2% % 19.8% % 20.8% 23.1% 24.9% 25.7% Year Source: Scripps Gerontology Center. (2013). Projections of 's Population with a Disability Oxford, OH: Scripps Gerontology Center, Miami University. Year Projected 60+ Population with Physical and/or Cognitive Disability, Total 60+ Population Severe Physical and/or Cognitive Disability Number Percentage of 60+ Population Moderate Physical and/or Cognitive Disability Number Percentage of 60+ Population ,287, , % 77, % ,600, , % 86, % ,952, , % 96, % ,227, , , % ,371, , , Source: Scripps Gerontology Center. (2013). Projections of 's Population with a Disability Oxford, OH: Scripps Gerontology Center, Miami University. 1 Disability 2.xls

12 Projections of the Number of People Age 60+ with Severe Physical and/or Cognitive Disability, 2010 to 2030, by Age ,656 71,639 62,252 62,618 63,466 72,288 64,224 52,384 39,233 43,036 31,240 24,157 29,448 36,020 32,848 38,190 34,260 42,276 31,823 25, Year Source: Scripps Gerontology Center. (2013). Projections of 's Population with a Disability Oxford, OH: Scripps Gerontology Center, Miami University. Projections of the Number of People Age 60+ with Severe Physical and/or Cognitive Disability Who Have Income Below 20 of Poverty, 2010 to 2030 Severe Disability Medicaid eligible 263, , , , ,670 53,258 57,965 64,093 72,652 82, Year Source: Scripps Gerontology Center. (2013). Projections of 's Population with a Disability Oxford, OH: Scripps Gerontology Center, Miami University. For projection methodology see ohio-population.org/datadownload Click on: Population Projection Methodology For Prevalence of Disability Estimation Methodology: Click on: Estimating Prevalence of Disability 2 Disability 2.xls

13 Summary This presentation of state population trends reveals important indicators of current and future need for long-term care services and supports. is aging; the share of the population that is 60 years and older will continue to grow over the next 20 years. A higher proportion of the older population experiences poverty, compared to other adults. In addition, those at very advanced ages are mostly women who have outlived their spouses and most likely live alone. The combination of lower income, living alone and higher prevalence of disability among older women are all contributors to the need for long-term care services and supports. Suggested citation: Scripps Gerontology Center (2013). Projections and Characteristics of the 60+ Population. Scripps Gerontology Center, Miami University, Oxford, OH. Available at