POLS Introductory Analysis of Political Data

Transcription

1 POLS Introductory Analysis of Political Data Department of Political Science Northern Illinois University Fall 2013 Professor Robert Brathwaite Course Information Lectures: W 3:30-6:10pm DuSable Hall 170 Professor Contact Information Office: Zulaf 410 Phone #: (815) rbrathwaite@niu.edu Office Hours: M 3:30 5:00pm, W 12:45-1:45pm Course Description Statistics are utilized to answer a wide-variety of political outcomes and events. The quantitative aspects of statistical analysis used by political scientists can vary and are often complicated. However, the central logic of all methods shares some common assumptions and concepts. This introductory course is designed to teach students statistical reasoning and its application to topics in political science. Particular attention will be focused on data collection, description, and measurement. The learning goals for this course are the following: Gather, interpret, and analyze data. Enhance critical thinking and research skills associated with statistical analysis. Generate a testable quantitative research design. Gain a basic understanding of statistical software operation. Course Requirements Students are expected to attend all lectures, complete all the assigned readings before coming to class, and complete all course assignments. A. Required Reading The following required book is available for purchase at the NIU Bookstore or online: David Freedman, Robert Pisani, and Roger Purves, Statistics, 4 th ed. (New York, NY: W.W. Norton, 2007). [Stats Book] 1

2 Note: Additional required readings are available through a web search or the Library website. Grading Course grades are based on class assignments, research design project, and class participation. Assignments: There will be six problem sets that need to be turned in on the due dates listed at the beginning of class. These problem sets account for 30% of your total grade. Research Project: In addition to the problem sets, there is a research project that accounts for 60% of the final grade. The research project for this class will be a page quantitative research design (double-spaced with12 pt. font. Times New Roman and 1 inch margins). To fulfill the requirements of this assignment students will be expected to generate a research question, develop testable hypotheses, identify sources of data, and detail modes of analysis and likely findings. The final research design project is due on Dec. 9 at 4pm. All research and writing related to this assignment is expected to confirm to the guidelines provided by the academic code of conduct (see below). More details regarding the requirements for the project will be discussed in class. Note: The work associated with this project is expected to be original work. Papers completed for other classes will not be accepted for this assignment and could lead to a failing grade for the assignment or course. If a student is unclear about academic policies and procedures during their research project they are expected to consult with me before proceeding. Attendance and Participation: The final component of your grade (10%) is determined by your attendance and participation in class. Students are expected to attend all lectures and attendance will be tracked by a sign-in sheet that will be distributed in class. If a student knows they will miss class for a university recognized event or illness they are expected to follow university policies and inform me as soon as possible. Grades and Grading Scale: Grading symbols that may be used from Fall 2012 onwards for graduate students are these: A, A-,B+, B, B-, C+, C, C-, D, and F. No other grade options were endorsed by the University.Frequently Asked Questions information from the NIU Registration and Records website is available at: Academic Dishonesty: In preparing for your work and meeting the requirements of this course, you are expected to adhere to all the rules, regulations, and standards set forth by the Department of Political Science, Northern Illinois University, and the scholarly community. This statement encompasses intentional and unintentional plagiarism; cheating on examinations; using, purchasing, or stealing others work; misusing library materials; and so forth. The NIU Undergraduate Catalog states: Good academic work must be based on honesty. The attempt of any student to present as his or her own work that which he or she has not produced is regarded by the faculty and administration as a serious offense. Students are considered to have cheated if they copy the work of another during an examination or turn in a paper or an assignment written, 2

3 in whole or in part, by someone else. Students are guilty of plagiarism, intentional or not, if they copy material from books, magazines, or other sources without identifying and acknowledging those sources or if they paraphrase ideas from such sources without acknowledging them. Students guilty of, or assisting others in, either cheating or plagiarism on an assignment, quiz, or examination may receive a grade of F for the course involved and may be suspended or dismissed from the university. (Undergraduate Catalog) In short, I take a very dim view on cheating or copying, so don t plagiarize or cheat since the chances are I will catch you! If you are not sure what constitutes plagiarism, ask. Ignorance will not be tolerated as an excuse. If you are unaware of how to cite properly, visit Other Policies Missed Exams or Assignments: You are responsible to ensure that all assignments and papers are completed as scheduled on the due dates listed in the syllabus. In general, there are no make-up exams or acceptance of late assignments. Exceptions regarding these policies may be granted in cases of medical emergency and/or other excused absence consistent with university regulations. Students who fall into this category are required to notify the instructor at least two weeks before the assignment or exam is to take place and provide relevant documentation associated with the absence. Incompletes: As a rule, I do not grant incompletes in order for students to complete coursework at a later time. Exceptions regarding this policy may be granted in cases of medical emergency and/or other excused absence consistent with university regulations. Classroom Etiquette: Please be respectful both to me and your classmates. I request that you avoid the following behavior while in class Use of Mobile Devices (talking, texting, web-surfing, or use) Facebook or other social media websites Excessive Tardiness Sleeping in class Excessive Disruption (talking/arguing with classmates, reading newspapers, leaving class, etc.) Note: Engagement in these activities during class will adversely impact your attendance/participation grade. Students with Disabilities: Northern Illinois University is committed to providing an accessible educational environment in collaboration with the Disability Resource Center. Any student requiring an academic accommodation due to a disability should let me know as soon as possible. Students who need academic accommodations based on the impact of a disability will be encouraged to contact the Disability Resource Center if they have not done so already. The Disability Resource Center is located on the 4th floor of the Health Services Building, and can be reached at [v], [TTY] or at drc@niu.edu. 3

4 Course Calendar August 28 (W) Class 1 Introduction September 4 (W) Class 2 Methods Debate in Political Science September 11 (W) Class 3 Experiments and Observational Studies September 18 (W) Class 4 Descriptive Stats: Histogram September 25 (W) Class 5 Descriptive Stats II: Standard Deviation October 2 (W) Class 6 Normal Approximations October 9 (W) Class 7 Measurement Error October 16 (W) Class 8 Probability October 23 (W) Class 9 Probability II October 30 (W) Class 10 Correlation and Regression November 6 (W) Class 11 Multiple Regression: RMS November 13 (W) Class 12 Multiple Regression: Regression Line November 20 (W) Class 13 Stata Operations I November 27 (W) No Class Thanksgiving Break Holiday December 4 (W) Class 14 Stata Operations II December 9 (M) 4:00-5:50pm Final 4

5 Course Schedule of Readings and Assignments August 28 Class 1: Introduction No Readings Assigned September 4 Class 2: Perestroika and Beyond Where are the methods debates now? Sharla Stewart, There s a Battle Being Waged in Political Science to Determine the Discipline s Future, University of Chicago Magazine, 95:5 (June 2003): 1-8. D.W. Miller, Storming the Palace in Political Science: Scholars Join Revolt Against Domination of Mathematical Approaches to the Discipline, The Chronicle of Higher Education (September ): 1-5. Rudra Sil, The Division of Labor in Social Science Research: Unified Methodology or Organic Solidarity, Polity 32:4 (Summer 2000): Michael Coppedge, Thickening Thin Concepts and Theories: Combining Large N and Small in Comparative Politics, Comparative Politics 31:4 (July 1999): Evan S. Lieberman, Nested Analysis as a Mixed-Method Strategy for Comparative Research, American Political Science Review 99:3 (August 2005): September 11 Class 3: Experiments and Observational Studies [Stats Book] Chap 1-2 James N. Druckman, The Growth and Development of Experimental Research in Political Science, American Political Science Review 100:4 (2006): September 18 Class 4: Histograms [Stats Book] Chap. 3 September 25 Class 5: Standard Deviation [Stats Book] Chap. 4 Jeffrey G. Williamson, Globalization and Inequality, Past and Present, The World Bank Research Observer 12:2 (Aug. 1997): Problem Set 1 Due in Class (Chapter 3 and 4 Review Exercises) 5

6 October 2 Class 6: Normal Approximations [Stats Book] Chap. 5 October 9 Class 7: Measurement Error [Stats Book] Chap. 6 Kosuke Imai and TeppeiYamamoto, Causal Inference with Differential Measurement Error: Nonparametric Identification and Sensitivity Analysis, American Journal of Political Science 54:2 (2010): Problem Set 2 Due in Class (Chap. 5-6 Review Exercises) October 16 Class 8: Probability Determining Chance [Stats Book] Chap October 23 Class 9: Probability II Binomial Formula and Law of Averages [Stats Book] Chap October 30 Philip A. Schrodt and Alex Mintz, The Conditional Probability Analysis of International Events Data, American Journal of Political Science 32:1 (1988): Problem Set 3 Due in Class (Chap Review Exercises) Class 10: Correlation and Regression [Stats Book] Chap Keith Jaggers and Ted Robert Gurr, Tracking Democracy s Third Wave with the Polity III Data, Journal of Peace Research 32:4 (1995): Problem Set 4 Due in Class (Chap Review Exercises) November 6 Class 11: Multiple Regression Root Mean Squared Error [Stats Book] Chap. 11 David R. Cameron, The Expansion of the Public Economy: A Comparative Analysis, American Political Science Review 72:4 (1978): Problem Set 5 Due in Class (Chap Review Exercises) 6

7 November 13 Class 12: Multiple Regression The Regression Line [Stats Book] Chap. 12 Timothy R. Johnson, Paul J. Wahlbeck, and James Spriggs, The Influence of Oral Arguments on the US Supreme Court, American Political Science Review 100:1 (2006): November 20 Class 13: Statistical Software Operations Introduction No Readings Assigned Problem Set 6 Due in Class (Chap Review Exercises) November 27 No Class: Thanksgiving Break December 4 Class 14: Statistical Software Operations cont. No Readings Assigned December 9 (M) Final: 4:00-5:50pm Research Design Project Due 7