Your University of the Future -

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1 Your niversity of the Future - Executing on the Higher Education Business Model Scenarios Dr. Jan-Martin Lowendahl Vice President Research [email protected] Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates. This publication may not be reproduced or distributed in any form without Gartner's prior written permission. If you are authorized to access this publication, your use of it is subject to the sage Guidelines for Gartner Services posted on gartner.com. The information contained in this publication has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Gartner disclaims all warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or adequacy of such information and shall have no liability for errors, omissions or inadequacies in such information. This publication consists of the opinions of Gartner's research organization and should not be construed as statements of fact. The opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. Although Gartner research may include a discussion of related legal issues, Gartner does not provide legal advice or services and its research should not be construed or used as such. Gartner is a public company, and its shareholders may include firms and funds that have financial interests in entities covered in Gartner research. Gartner's Board of Directors may include senior managers of these firms or funds. Gartner research is produced independently by its research organization without input or influence from these firms, funds or their managers. For further information on the independence and integrity of Gartner research, see "Guiding Principles on Independence and Objectivity."

2 Citizen Developers Student Retention CRM Open-Source SIS SIS International Data Interoperability Standards Affective Computing Campus App Store EA Frameworks Open Microcredentials Web-Based Education Tablet Office Productivity Suites Quantum Computing Mashware Learning Stack BPO Adaptive E-Textbooks Big Data Gamification MOOC Social Software Standards Wireless aas COBIT Adaptive Learning Digital Preservation of Research Data BYOD Strategy E-Book Readers Cloud HPC/CaaS Mobile-Learning Smartphones Open-Source Middleware Suites E-Textbook Cloud for Staff and Faculty Mobile-Learning Low-Range/ Midrange Handsets Open-Source Financials ITIL Social Learning Platform for Education Game Consoles as Media Hubs Tablets nified Communications and n Collaboration Lecture Capture and Retrieval Tools Intellectual Property Rights and Royalties Management Software IT Infrastructure tility Enterprise Architecture SaaS Administration Applications Open-Source Learning Repositories Hosted Virtual Desktops Emergency/Mass Notification Services Virtual Environments/Virtual Worlds Self-Publishing Mashups From "Hype Cycle for Education, 2013," 25 July 2013 (G )

3 Hype Cycle for Education, 2013 A CIO Toolbox expectations Citizen Developers Student Retention CRM Open-Source SIS SIS International Data Interoperability Standards Affective Computing Campus App Store EA Frameworks Open Microcredentials Web-Based Education Tablet Office Productivity Suites Quantum Computing Mashware Learning Stack Innovation Trigger As of July 2013 BPO Peak of Inflated Expectations Adaptive E-Textbooks Big Data Gamification MOOC Social Software Standards Wireless aas COBIT Adaptive Learning Digital Preservation of Research Data BYOD Strategy Cloud HPC/CaaS Mobile-Learning Smartphones Open-Source Middleware Suites E-Textbook Cloud for Staff and Faculty From, "Hype Cycle for Education, 2013," 25 July 2013 (G ) Mobile-Learning Low-Range/ Midrange Handsets Open-Source Financials ITIL Social Learning Platform for Education Trough of Disillusionment time E-Book Readers Game Consoles as Media Hubs Tablets IT Infrastructure tility Enterprise Architecture SaaS Administration Applications Open-Source Learning Repositories Hosted Virtual Desktops Emergency/Mass Notification Services Virtual Environments/Virtual Worlds Slope of Enlightenment Off the Hype Cycle: e-portfolio, ser-centric IAM, Organization-centric IAM, SOA, Student Enrollment CRM, Open-Source Portals, Social Media in Education Years to mainstream adoption: Less than 2 years 2 to 5 years 5 to 10 years More than 10 years Obsolete before plateau Self-Publishing nified Communications and n Collaboration Lecture Capture and Retrieval Tools Intellectual Property Rights and Royalties Management Software Plateau of Productivity Mashups

4 Hype Cycle for Education, 2013 A CIO Toolbox expectations Citizen Developers Student Retention CRM Open-Source SIS SIS International Data Interoperability Standards Affective Computing Campus App Store EA Frameworks Open Microcredentials Web-Based Education Tablet Office Productivity Suites Quantum Computing Mashware Learning Stack Innovation Trigger As of July 2013 BPO Peak of Inflated Expectations Adaptive E-Textbooks Big Data Gamification MOOC Social Software Standards Wireless aas COBIT Adaptive Learning Digital Preservation of Research Data BYOD Strategy Cloud HPC/CaaS Mobile-Learning Smartphones Open-Source Middleware Suites E-Textbook Cloud for Staff and Faculty From "Hype Cycle for Education, 2013," 25 July 2013 (G ) Mobile-Learning Low-Range/ Midrange Handsets Open-Source Financials ITIL Social Learning Platform for Education Trough of Disillusionment time E-Book Readers Game Consoles as Media Hubs Tablets IT Infrastructure tility Enterprise Architecture SaaS Administration Applications Open-Source Learning Repositories Hosted Virtual Desktops Emergency/Mass Notification Services Virtual Environments/Virtual Worlds Slope of Enlightenment Off the Hype Cycle: E-portfolio, ser-centric IAM, Organization-centric IAM, SOA, Student Enrollment CRM, Open-source Portals, Social Media in Education The Capabilities: Digitalization Exostructure Self-Publishing nified Communications and n Collaboration Lecture Capture and Retrieval Tools Intellectual Property Rights and Royalties Management Software Plateau of Productivity Mashups

5 The Expanding Education Ecosystem DIY Hired Hand Starfish Retention Workday Moodlerooms Dell "cloud" Perceptis Context Banner You Are Here Corporate LiveMocha Fronter Intel Saf-T-Net Kroton OERu demy Moodle Georgia Tech Apollo G OpenClass Civitas The Expanding Education Ecosystem: A World of Choice (G ) dacity Core HE Continuous Tools K-12 Knewton X plugjam College Adobe Connect Board Open Tapestry Blackboard 2 SMOWL Facebook/ Social Embanet Services Compass NCAT Increasing Options and Competition! Texas A&M FE Statistics.com Carnegie Learning StraighterLine MS Certification MyFit Importance of Exostructure Connections Education Pearson McGraw-Hill OpenCourseWare/ Merlot AcademicPub Kno International Tegrity Baccalaureate Khan Academy Gaining Competitive Advantage in the Education Ecosystem Requires Going Beyond Mere Infrastructure to Exostructure (G ) Content Cool Vendors in Education, 2013 (G )

6 Start Action 1 Decision Action 2 Result THE KEY ISSE What investments in information technology will be strategic in positioning the institution for long-term success in fulfilling its mission? f(x y z ) = People Process Technology n

7 Higher Education "Business Model" Scenarios Technological Decisions by Storytelling Oxford Perceived Quality Collectively Defined Exclusive Only s Everybody's Community College Scale Inclusive Wharton Me, Not All About Source: "Four 'Business Model' Scenarios for Higher Education: An Introduction to Strategic Planning Through Storytelling" (G ) Personally Defined.K. Open niversity

8 HE Scenarios Technological Decisions by Storytelling: From Monasteries to 'Monasteries'? Brilliance for Market Innovative nique Perceived Quality Collectively Defined High Touch Exclusive Only s Everybody's Scale Inclusive Me Not All About Personally Defined

9 Only s The Extreme Characteristics Academic freedom Creative community Keepers of tradition Where matter matters Brick and mortar (?) Social bonding/belonging Everything that cannot be easily copied Only s Me Not Everybody's All About The CRM Case: CRM X Enrollment X CRM Retention Alumni CRM CRM= Customer Relationship Management Here, it is more about the institution and its ability to support academic freedom than about you. You stay because the institution can give you a lot of resources in return for your skills and time.

10 HE Scenarios Technological Decisions by Storytelling: From Guilds to Clubs Edge in Market Perceived Quality Collectively Defined Only s Everybody's Exclusive Scale Inclusive Privacy Me Not All About Premium Personal Personally Defined

11 Me Not The Extreme Characteristics Community values rule Tricks of the trade are learned here and nowhere else There is a clear sense of being on the inside (track) Network for life Source of competitive advantage for life Always available the hub Only s Me Not Everybody's All About The CRM Case: CRM X Enrollment CRM Retention Alumni CRM Social CRM Here, it is about getting that extra advantage in fulfilling a dream and you have to be focused on "adding value" to the community's goal. You stay because you are on the inside and it looks good on your CV.

12 HE Scenarios Technological Decisions by Storytelling: From National Knowledge Factories to a Global Learning Ecosystem Perceived Quality Collectively Defined Scale Scale of Market Cost-effective Exclusive Only s Everybody's Standardized Scale Inclusive Me Not All About Personally Defined

13 Everybody's The Extreme Characteristics Everything for everybody: The Giga niversity Catering for all pedagogical needs nder political pressure to cost-effectively cater to a larger (national) need for knowledge workers Program just-in-case focused education (One-pace-fits-all education) Volume matters The CRM Case: CRM Enrollment CRM Retention Alumni CRM OK... Only s Me Not Everybody's All About Here, it is about the greater good of the society, and consensus dictates the road ahead. You stay as you know you are helping to empower a lot of people to realize their social and economic potential.

14 HE Scenarios Technological Decisions by Storytelling: From Correspondence Courses to Brokerage Perceived Quality Collectively Defined Exclusive Only s Me Not Everybody's All About Scale Inclusive Reach Flexible Personally Defined Consumerized Speed to Market

15 All About The Extreme Characteristics Only mind over matter Very niched Opportunistic economy of speed Making economy out of scale Brokerage niversity of just-right, just-in-time, any-pace education Individual reputation based Virally marketed The CRM Case: demy... Top 10 >1MSD CRM X CRM X Alumni X Social X Tutor Enrollment Retention CRM CRM Relationship Management Only s Me Not Everybody's All About Here, it is all about you, and you have extreme personal flexibility. But, you have to take full responsibility for the content of your own education, the course of your career and how to pay the bill each month.

16 Your? From 20xx to 20xx A You Are Here B You Want to be Here Perceived Quality Collectively Defined Optional Plot: Competitor Challenger Only s Everybody's Exclusive Scale Inclusive Me, Not All About Personally Defined

17 Your? From 2012 to 2022 Optional Plot: Competitor Challenger A You Are Here Exclusive B You Want to Be Here A Only s Me, Not Quality Collectively Defined niversity x A MBA Research B2 Everybody's B1 All About College y A Online Scale Inclusive Online z Personally Defined

18 Recommended Gartner Research Visual Strategic Planning sing the Gartner Higher Education 'Business Model' Scenarios and Corresponding Strategic Technology Maps Introducing Visual Strategic Planning sing Four Higher Education 'Business Model' Scenarios and Strategic Technology Maps Higher Education 'Business Model' Scenarios and Corresponding Strategic Technology Map Only s Focuses on Brilliance for the Market Higher Education 'Business Model' Scenarios and Corresponding Strategic Technology Map Me, Not Looks to Edge in the Market Higher Education 'Business Model' Scenarios and Corresponding Strategic Technology Map Everybody's Leverages Scale of the Market Higher Education 'Business Model' Scenarios and Corresponding Strategic Technology Map All About Seeks Speed to Market Toolkit: Workshop for Building a Strategic Technology Map to Support Your Future niversity Predictions for the Higher Education 'Business Model' Landscape in 2025 and Beyond Will Help CIOs Plan Now The Gartner Higher Education Business Model Scenarios: Digitalization Drives Disruptive Innovation and Changes the Balance

19 A Final Word "Thus, the task is not so much to see what no one yet has seen, but to think what nobody yet has thought about that which everybody sees." Arthur Schopenhauer, 1788 to 1860 "Leadership is the art of getting someone else to do something you want done because he wants to do it. " Dwight D Eisenhower

20 The End