Inside the Hype Cycle: What s Hot and What s Not in 2009

Transcription

1 Inside the Hype Cycle: What s Hot and What s Not in 2009 Jackie Fenn Notes accompany this presentation. Please select Notes Page view. These materials can be reproduced only with written approval from Gartner. Such approvals must be requested via [email protected]. Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates.

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4 Gartner s Hype Cycle Special Report, Hype Cycles (technologies, applications, management, industries, regional) Over 1600 individual technology profiles (including definition, assessment of business impact, advice on adoption and example vendors for each) New Hype Cycles this year: - cloud computing - data center power and cooling technologies - enterprise information management - media broadcasting - mobile device technologies - photovoltaic solar energy. - virtualization Hype Cycle landing page

5 The Hype Cycle of Innovation Peak of Inflated Expectations Expectations Innovation Trigger Positive Hype Negative Hype Trough of Disillusionment Slope of Enlightenment Plateau of Productivity Time

6 Emerging Technologies Hype Cycle 2009 expectations Wireless Power Internet TV 3-D Printing Augmented Reality Surface Computers Mobile Robots Behavioral Economics Cloud Computing E-Book Readers Social Software Suites Microblogging Green IT Video Telepresence Mesh Networks: Sensor Video Search Technology Trigger Home Health Monitoring Public Virtual Worlds Context Delivery Architecture Quantum Computing 3-D Flat-Panel Displays Human Augmentation Peak of Inflated Expectations Years to mainstream adoption: Online Video Speech Recognition SOA Corporate Blogging Location-Aware Applications Wikis Electronic Paper Tablet PC Idea Management Web 2.0 Social Network Analysis Over-the-Air Mobile Phone Payment Systems, Developed Markets RFID (Case/Pallet) As of July 2009 Trough of Disillusionment time Slope of Enlightenment less than 2 years 2 to 5 years 5 to 10 years more than 10 years Plateau of Productivity obsolete before plateau

7 Hype Cycle Indicators expectations Startup companies, first round of venture capital funding R&D Supplier proliferation Mass media hype begins Early adopters investigate First-generation products, high price, lots of customization needed Activity beyond early adopters Negative press begins Supplier consolidation and failures Second/third rounds of venture capital funding Less than 5 percent of the potential audience has adopted fully Methodologies and best practices developing Second-generation products, some services High-growth adoption phase starts: 20 to 30 percent of the potential audience has adopted the innovation Third-generation products, out of the box, product suites Innovation Trigger Peak of Inflated Expectations Trough of Disillusionment time Slope of Enlightenment Plateau of Productivity

8 Adoption Activity By Enterprise Personality Type Peak of Inflated Expectations Type A Activity Zone Type B Danger Zone Type B Activity Zone Expectations Innovation Trigger Trough of Disillusionment Type C Activity Zone Slope of Enlightenment Plateau of Productivity Time Key Lesson: Be selectively aggressive

9 The Hype Cycle of Innovation: Key Questions What's here that we could be using? What's here that we're not using? Was that a deliberate decision? Expectations Time

10 Interactive Poll Which of these do you think will generate the most value for your organization during 2010 to 2011? 1.Cloud computing 2.Social software suites 3.Video telepresence (eg HP Halo, Cisco) 4.Virtual worlds (eg Second Life) 5.RFID

11 Emerging Technologies Hype Cycle 2009 expectations Wireless Power Internet TV 3-D Printing Augmented Reality Surface Computers Mobile Robots Behavioral Economics Cloud Computing E-Book Readers Social Software Suites Microblogging Green IT Video Telepresence Mesh Networks: Sensor Video Search Technology Trigger Home Health Monitoring Public Virtual Worlds Context Delivery Architecture Quantum Computing 3-D Flat-Panel Displays Human Augmentation Peak of Inflated Expectations Years to mainstream adoption: Online Video Speech Recognition SOA Corporate Blogging Location-Aware Applications Wikis Electronic Paper Tablet PC Idea Management Web 2.0 Social Network Analysis Over-the-Air Mobile Phone Payment Systems, Developed Markets RFID (Case/Pallet) As of July 2009 Trough of Disillusionment time Slope of Enlightenment less than 2 years 2 to 5 years 5 to 10 years more than 10 years Plateau of Productivity obsolete before plateau

12 Emerging Technologies Priority Matrix 2009 benefit years to mainstream adoption less than 2 years 2 to 5 years 5 to 10 years more than 10 years transformational Web 2.0 Cloud Computing Internet TV Public Virtual Worlds SOA 3-D Printing Context Delivery Architecture RFID (Case/Pallet) Human Augmentation Mobile Robots Quantum Computing high E-Book Readers Augmented Reality Electronic Paper Home Health Monitoring Green IT To be updated Location-Aware Applications Online Video Social Network Analysis Social Software Suites Wireless Power Behavioral Economics Mesh Networks: Sensor moderate Corporate Blogging Idea Management Microblogging 3-D Flat-Panel Displays Speech Recognition Over-the-Air Mobile Phone Payment Systems, Developed Markets Surface Computers Video Search Tablet PC Video Telepresence Wikis low As of July 2009

13 Fifteen Years of Hype Cycles Visibility Peak of Inflated Expectations Intelligent Agents Hype Cycle of Emerging Technologies, January 1995 Technology Trigger Emergent Computation Information Superhighway Wireless Communications Virtual Reality Video Conferencing Trough of Disillusionment Handwriting Recognition Slope of Enlightenment Object-oriented Programming Speech Recognition Plateau of Productivity Knowledge-based Systems Time Example paths Bluetooth: Peak 1999 Bluetooth Cable Replacement, Slope 2003; Bluetooth Networking, Trough 2003 Electronic Paper/Digital Ink: Pre-peak 1999 Early Slope 2009 Speech Recognition: Slope 1995 Slope 2009

14 The future is already here, it s just not evenly distributed. William Gibson Photo: Midnightzulu

15 Inside the Hype Cycle: What s Hot and What s Not in 2009 Available wherever books are sold Visit Notes accompany this presentation. Please select Notes Page view. These materials can be reproduced only with written approval from Gartner. Such approvals must be requested via [email protected]. Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates.

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