Big Data: Tackling New Projects and Exploring New Sources
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1 Big Data: Tackling New Projects and Exploring New Sources Dennis Fixler BEA Advisory Committee Meeting 13 November 2015
2 Background Using Big Data not a big change for BEA Definition of big data: non-survey based data A broad definition would include administrative data Focus will be on private sources of data Use of administrative data has received a lot of attention: OMB directive promoting its use and setting out guidelines for its use 2
3 Background Examples of private data source used by BEA; 121 sources, over $1million spent Source Data Industry International National Regional AM Best X X X Bureau Van Dijk X Compustat X X Mercer s Health Plan X Merger Market X Pharma X X RL Polk Ward s Automotive X X 3
4 Motivations/Goals Background Improve early estimates More regional data Passive data collections 4
5 Background Questions to ask before use How representative are the data? Do they meet the measurement objectives? Do they provide consistent time series? Are they timely and reliable? Are methods of compilation transparent? 5
6 Example: Satellite Health Care Account Data come from many sources and are blended BEA combined billions of claims from both Medicare and private commercial insurance to determine the spending for over 250 diseases 6
7 Example Use survey population weights to fold in data from different sources MEPS Other (e.g. Uninsured, Medicaid) Medicare Population Medicare FFS 5% Sample Privately Insured MarketScan 7
8 Example: Health Care Satellite Account Prices--Survey Data Only Price Index (2009=100) Symptoms Circulatory Musculoskeletal Respiratory Endocrine Nervous System Neoplasms
9 Example: Health Care Satellite Account Prices--Survey + Big Data Price Index (2009=100) Symptoms Circulatory Musculoskeletal Respiratory Endocrine Nervous System Neoplasms
10 Exploring Athenahealth Data Data from Athenahealth provides a convenience sample of physicians offices with information on dollars received by providers. Importantly the data are available in real time. The goal of this project is to assess whether these data could be used to improve the advance and 2 nd estimates for nominal spending on physician services. Physician services about 25% of PCE spending on health care; health care about 16% of PCE 10
11 Exploring Athenahealth Data One problem related to the convenience nature of the data is that the size distribution of establishments leans towards small establishments. The chart below compares that distribution to the distribution published in county business patterns data from the Census Bureau. 11
12 Exploring Athenahealth Data 12
13 Credit Card Data for Consumer Spending Using credit card data collected from the mandatory survey BE-150 to inform its estimates of international travel in the Balance of Payments Accounts Exploring use of credit card data to improve estimates of consumer spending, and to develop estimates at the metro area and county levels 13
14 Credit Card Data for Consumer Spending Working with Census Bureau on acquiring and analyzing the data. Pilot Projects: MasterCard, First Data/Palantir Exploring Nielsen, and PayPal. 14
15 Monthly credit card data estimates compared to retail trade estimates 15
16 Monthly credit card data estimates compared to retail trade estimates 16
17 Monthly changes in credit card and total retail trade (less autos) 17
18 Exploratory work with First Data and coverage Data/Palantir Aggregate Market Data ~50% of all U.S. Credit Card transaction spend Point of Sale (POS) data from 4.5MM+ U.S. merchant locations 600+ merchant categories in our data set 58B transactions annually $1.6 Trillion spend, 10% of GDP All card-types, all banks, all networks, all 50 states, all customer segments, all merchant sizes 800M+ cardholders, 100% transactions from each merchant This pilot uses a subset of data Five states for regional cuts Anonymity and contracting restrictions 18
19 First Data/Palantir 19
20 First Data/Palantir 20
21 First Data/Palantir 21
22 First Data/Palantir 22
23 First Data/Palantir 23
24 Big Data Activities CNSTAT Expert meeting: Exploiting Commercial Data for Official Economic Statistics, November 19 ICSP/FCSM: Subcommittee on Administrative Alternative and Blended Data UN Global Working Group on Big Data 24
25 Big Data Activities CNSTAT Panel: Improving Federal Statistics for Policy and Social Science Research Using Multiple Data Sources and State-of-the-Art Estimation Methods OECD December Workshop: Access to New Data Sources for Statistics: Business Models for Private-Public Partnerships 25
26 Summary Use by BEA of commercial data sources has a long history Current efforts geared to improving early estimates and regional data Many organizations involved and collaboration is crucial 26
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