National Grid plc Results for the year ended 31 March 2011

Transcription

1 19 May 2011 HIGHLIGHTS National Grid plc Results for the year ended 31 March 2011 Solid performance in 2010/11 Pre-tax profit 1 up 25% and earnings per share 1 up 4% 2 Good financial and operating performance continued strong UK returns US return up 130bps to 8.2% with actions underway for further improvement Benefits from timing in year contributed approximately 5p/share Operating cash flow 3 up 12% at 4.7bn Investing in growth and improving long-term returns Strong balance sheet capacity for planned investment Net debt of 18.7bn after 3.2bn rights issue in June 2010 Record capital investment 4 in 2010/11 of 3.6bn, up 265m Expected investment of around 19bn in four years to end March 2015 Progress with US business improvement Revenue decoupling and cost trackers implemented in the majority of businesses, though a disappointing revenue outcome from the Niagara Mohawk electric rate case US restructuring and cost reduction programme progressing well Divestment of New Hampshire businesses on track for completion in second half of 2011/12 Positive outlook for 2011/12 focus on improving returns and efficiency Benefits from US restructuring, rate case reviews and investment Delivering value from increased investment in UK regulated assets Steve Holliday, Chief Executive, said: We have made good progress this year against our priorities and delivered good financial performance despite some challenging headwinds. Continued investment in our key regulated markets and sustained focus on improving returns have delivered benefits. During the year we invested a record 3.6bn of new capital and at the same time maintained tight management of controllable operating costs. Throughout 2010/11 we focused on a number of important regulatory reviews. The UK RIIO regulatory regime, with its emphasis on investment and innovation, should provide significant opportunities for growth and we remain committed to working with Ofgem and other stakeholders to secure an attractive investment framework from 2013 onwards. In the US, we completed the rate case filings in our plan. While we are disappointed with the revenue outcome for Niagara Mohawk electric, the filings have delivered major improvements including revenue decoupling and cost tracking measures. The restructuring of our US businesses will underpin our progress and we are already seeing operational benefits from these changes. While several rate cases will need further review, we are now positioned in the US to drive further improvements to our overall returns. As a result, we have a positive outlook for 2011/12 and expect to deliver another year of good operating performance, although comparative performance will be impacted by the timing differences that benefited 2010/11. 1 For definition of business performance results see footnote 9. 2 Prior year EPS adjusted to reflect scrip dividends and rights issue bonus element, refer to note 7 on page Operating cash flows from continuing operations before exceptional items, remeasurements, stranded cost recoveries and taxation 4 Capital investment including investment in joint ventures. 1

2 FINANCIAL RESULTS FOR CONTINUING OPERATIONS Year ended 31 March ( m, at actual exchange rate) % change Business performance 1 Operating profit 3,600 3, Pre-tax profit 2,473 1, Earnings 1,747 1, Earnings per share 51.7p 49.5p 2 4 Statutory results Operating profit 3,745 3, Pre-tax profit 2,624 2, Earnings 2,159 1, Earnings per share 63.9p 48.4p 2 32 Dividend per share 36.37p 33.68p 5 8 CONTACTS AND CONFERENCE CALL DETAILS Investors John Dawson +44 (0) (0) (m) George Laskaris (m) Andy Mead +44 (0) (0) (m) Michael Smart +44 (0) (0) (m) Iwan Hughes +44 (0) (0) (m) Tom Hull +44 (0) (0) (m) Media Clive Hawkins +44 (0) (0) (m) Chris Mostyn +44 (0) (0) (m) Brunswick Tom Burns +44 (0) Tom Batchelar +44 (0) An analyst presentation will be held at the London Stock Exchange, 10 Paternoster Square, London EC4M 7LS at 9:15am (BST) today. There will be a live webcast of the results presentation and a short video of Steve Holliday and Andrew Bonfield discussing these results available to view at Live telephone coverage of the analyst presentation UK dial in number +44 (0) US dial in number Confirmation Code # Telephone replay of the analyst presentation (available until 18 June 2011) UK dial in number +44 (0) US dial in number Confirmation Code # National Grid images can be found via the following link You can view or download copies of our latest Annual Report or the Performance Summary from our website at or request a free printed copy by contacting investor.relations@ngrid.com. 5 Prior year dividend of 38.49p rebased to reflect rights issue bonus element, refer to note 8 on page 40. 2

3 BUSINESS REVIEW National Grid has delivered another year of solid operational and financial performance. Our priorities for 2010/11 were delivering our investment programme in a disciplined manner, making further progress with our US regulatory filings, contributing to the development of the UK regulatory framework and continuing to drive efficiency across the business. In delivering these priorities, we continued to place safety at the forefront of all our considerations. We are reporting broadly sustained standards of safety across all our businesses this year, retaining most of the significant improvement made in 2009/10. We have reduced our lost time injury frequency rate by 36% over the last five years and benefited from a marked improvement in our contractor partners lost time injuries in 2010/11. We also maintained our focus on the customer and we have exceeded all our US regulatory customer satisfaction targets and customer service levels in We are also driving improvements in the UK. Growth and Investment As part of our long-term ambition to create value through growth in our asset base, we delivered a record level of capital investment in 2010/11 of 3.6bn, with significant projects across our businesses, but particularly in the UK where investment is focused on structural changes to the sources of gas and electricity supply. Ageing facilities and carbon reduction targets are leading to the retirement of existing generating capacity and further demands to connect low carbon and renewable generation. National Grid s role is to ensure that these new sources of energy can be delivered to areas of demand, a critical role in meeting the UK government s climate change agenda and achieving the associated CO 2 reduction targets by We continue to expect this to drive further growth in capital investment in coming years. Our 3.2bn rights issue, completed in June, has provided balance sheet capacity for the projected increase in investment in our UK Transmission business. This increased investment will drive significant growth in the regulated value of our UK Transmission business, which in turn will drive an increase in our revenues. Capital investment of 2.1bn in our UK regulated businesses over the past 12 months has contributed to an increase in our estimate of their regulated asset value from 19.0bn to 20.8bn. We continue to invest at a steady level in our US regulated businesses ( 1.1bn in 2010/11) and we are also making targeted investments, principally in the UK, in non-regulated activities and joint ventures ( 0.4bn in 2010/11). We completed our Grain LNG phase III investment and the BritNed electricity interconnector in the 2010/11 financial year and both are now operational. We have now invested around 1.2bn in these businesses. We ensure, before any investment is undertaken, that we are clear how and when it will be remunerated and we only look to invest capital where we expect to be able to earn an acceptable return. This has led us to delay a decision on the building of Grain LNG phase IV until demand is clearer, and to withdraw from the bidding process for the remaining first round of offshore wind connections. Combined with procurement efficiencies this disciplined approach to capital investment has restricted the level of increase in capital expenditure to 265m compared to last year. Regulatory developments in the UK During the year, Ofgem, the UK industry regulator, introduced RIIO a new approach to price controls. Under this approach network Revenues are set in advance to meet an agreed set of Outputs and networks are able to improve returns by Innovating and by responding to Incentives. This new framework will apply to our UK regulated businesses (representing around 58% of group operating profit 1 ) from April 2013, with the first price control under RIIO lasting for eight years until The proposed changes are designed to incentivise network companies to operate and manage 3

4 their systems in an efficient and innovative manner whilst providing a framework to support the investment needed to facilitate the decarbonisation of our energy mix. This development of the regulatory framework has been triggered by significant changes to the UK energy supply, generation and demand landscape, partly driven by Government energy policy. Following the launch in July 2010, Ofgem began consultation on the application of the RIIO framework to the upcoming transmission and gas distribution price controls (RIIO-T1 and RIIO-GD1) and published a document, based on this consultation, in March Many of the views expressed by the industry and investors were reflected in the March document which included a narrower range for the cost of equity focused at the top end of the original range, clarity on proposed changes to asset lives and depreciation profiles and more detail on proposals around cost of debt indexation, including a revised benchmark index. Consultations will continue during 2011 and 2012 and investors as well as companies will have further opportunities to respond to these. As the next step in the process, we will submit our business plans for the period to 2021 in July These plans will incorporate feedback we have received from our extensive programme of stakeholder engagement. Our business plans will include our proposals for incentive schemes, other revenue adjustment mechanisms and our view of the financing requirement for the plans. The plans will also include our proposals, where appropriate, for transitional arrangements around changes to asset depreciation and any other area where particular features of our business require non-standard treatment. We continue to believe that the RIIO framework can offer the opportunity for us to earn the necessary returns on our investments by delivering the outputs that customers want in an innovative and efficient manner. The framework will have to meet the needs of investors in order to attract funding for the increased investment programme that is so critical to the UK s security of supply and carbon reduction targets. The process for the one year rollover of the current transmission price controls (TPCR4) has begun. In April 2011, Ofgem published its initial thoughts around financial returns and cost allowances for the roll over year which bridges the end of the existing price control in March 2012 with the start of the RIIO price control regime in April Further consultation will occur over the next seven months and we expect to see initial proposals in early August with final proposals due to be published in November Regulatory developments in the US We are committed to achieving higher returns from our US businesses (today representing around 38% of group operating profit 1 ). We expect this to be driven by delivering both operational excellence, through more efficient operating processes and cost structures, and an improved customer experience, while ensuring effective management of capital investment. At the same time, we will work to conclude pending regulatory filings and submit new filings as required. Since the end of 2007, we have completed seven 6 full rate case filings, representing 63% 7 of our US activities, with many of them delivering meaningful improvements that will support customer service, investment and returns. These rate filings are together delivering significant additional income as well as including specific new features that we have sought, such as the decoupling of revenues from volumes, true ups for pensions and bad debt commodity and capital trackers. We filed our decoupling plans, consistent with enacted legislation, for our Rhode Island businesses (approx. 8% 7 of our US activities) in October Once approved, all of our continuing US Distribution businesses will feature decoupling as part of their rate plans. In November 2010 we received a 6 Excluding rate filings in our New Hampshire businesses 7 Percentage of reported rate base as at 31 Dec 2010 excluding New Hampshire businesses. 4

5 satisfactory decision from the Massachusetts Department of Public Utilities (MADPU) in relation to our filings for new rates in our Massachusetts Gas businesses (approx. 11% 7 of our US activities). In January 2011 we received the decision from the New York Public Service Commission (NYPSC) in relation to our filing for new rates in our Niagara Mohawk electric business (approx. 25% 7 of our US activities). We were disappointed with the outcome of the NYPSC s decision as it does not allow us sufficient revenue to operate the business to the standards we view as appropriate, nor allow us to earn the allowed rate of return. As a result, we expect to file again for new rates in our Niagara Mohawk electric business as soon as practicable in During this year s rate filings, questions arose over our cost allocation processes. As a result, we commissioned Liberty Consulting Group (Liberty) a nationally recognised leader in providing independent audits of regulated businesses to conduct a comprehensive and independent review of our cost allocation processes. The review found no evidence of deliberate misallocations of expenses but did highlight a number of issues in our processes and systems. Steps are already being taken to address the issues raised. Three of the four state commissions - the Rhode Island Public Utilities Commission, the NYPSC and the MADPU - have announced that they will also undertake their own reviews of service company costs. Included in the $119m granted in the Niagara Mohawk rate case was $50m of temporary rate increases which are dependent upon the outcome of the NYPSC review. In the US we evolved our structure to strengthen the local regional focus with the appointment of jurisdictional presidents in New York, Massachusetts, New Hampshire and Rhode Island alongside presidents responsible for our electric delivery business on Long Island and the federally regulated businesses. Each president is accountable for delivering safe, efficient, reliable and cost effective services for customers and regulators in their jurisdictions. Efficiency Programmes On 31 January 2011 we announced a Group wide management restructuring, with a particular focus on our US business. We announced a targeted reduction in US operating costs, led by reductions in management and administrative positions with a savings run rate of $200m (approximately 125m) per annum targeted by the end of the 2011/12 financial year. This change realigns how we run the US business around key stakeholders and increases our focus on customer service. The evolution of the US structure is well underway. We achieved the planned $200m of efficiency savings from our KeySpan merger synergies ahead of the August 2011 target date. We continue to drive operating efficiencies and reduce procurement costs through a combination of leveraging National Grid s scale, unit price reductions and decreasing the number of suppliers. Our global procurement initiative delivered over 126m of savings, mainly capital, in the year. Our information systems (IS) transformation programme is an initiative within our global IS function delivering services and new solutions to all parts of the Company. Following a major restructuring to integrate our IS operations, we have established a number of new outsourced contracts which are expected to deliver improvements in capability and significant cost reductions compared to our previous operations. Compared to the same period last year, our regulated controllable operating costs 8 reduced by 39m, a reduction of 5% in real terms. Together with the growth in our asset base, this resulted in our efficiency metric improving to 7.3% from 7.5% last year. 8 Regulated controllable operating costs exclude bad debts, pension and other post employment benefit costs and are presented on a constant currency basis. 5

6 Strategy update National Grid is a portfolio of distinct regulated businesses in the UK and the US and some unregulated businesses, primarily in the UK. This includes a mixture of cash generative developed assets with minimal investment requirements (such as our existing interconnectors and National Grid Metering business), businesses with low to medium levels of growth and positive cash generation (such as our US and UK distribution businesses) and businesses with high levels of investment and growth (such as our UK electricity transmission business and potential new unregulated investments). On an ongoing basis we review the portfolio, considering our strategic objectives and long-term growth opportunities as well as each business contribution to the Group. This includes its contribution to cash flows and earnings, its asset base growth and funding requirements and the regulatory or commercial framework applying to that business. Where a business is not expected to exhibit the range of characteristics we are looking for within a reasonable timeframe, or where we are offered a higher value for the business than we might place on it, we will consider selling that business. In December 2010, we signed an agreement with a subsidiary of Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp for the sale of our Granite State Electric and EnergyNorth businesses in New Hampshire. Together, these businesses represent less than 2% of our US rate base. The consideration agreed is $285m plus an amount relating to working capital. The sale is expected to close in the second half of the financial year, subject to regulatory approvals. We will continue to develop our portfolio of businesses through cycles of investment and cash generation with the aim of maximising shareholder value. The rights issue in 2010 provided headroom for us to capitalise on the step up in UK investment we identified last year. At the same time, we expect our US businesses to improve returns and cash generation. The emerging regulatory framework and future investment plans will present National Grid with significant opportunities to invest for long-term profitable growth, and we will manage the peaks and troughs of the investment cycle for the benefit of all shareholders. Board changes In December 2010, Steve Lucas retired after 10 years as Finance Director of National Grid and formerly Lattice Group plc. Andrew Bonfield joined the Board as Finance Director in November As part of our restructuring programme announced on 31 January 2011 Nick Winser has assumed the position of Executive Director, UK, responsible for all UK businesses. Tom King assumed the position of Executive Director and President, US, responsible for all US businesses, with effect from the beginning of April Mark Fairbairn, formerly Executive Director, Gas Distribution handed over responsibility for the UK Gas Distribution business to Nick Winser on 1 March 2011 and subsequently stepped down from the Board and left National Grid at the end of that month. John Allan will step down from the Board at this year s AGM due to his increasing commitments externally, especially since he became Chairman of WorldPay in April. The process of finding a successor to our Chairman is well underway. A further announcement will be made when we are in a position to do so. DIVIDEND The Board has recommended an increase in the final dividend to 23.47p per ordinary share ($ per American Depositary Share) in line with our policy of targeting 8% growth until March 2012, bringing the full year dividend to 36.37p per ordinary share. This 8% increase has been calculated using a rebased figure for the 2009/10 full year dividend of 33.68p (actual 38.49p). This is derived by applying a ratio of to the dividend for 2009/10 reflecting the bonus element of the rights issue. If approved, the final dividend will be paid on 17 August 2011 to shareholders on the register as at 3 June A scrip dividend alternative will again be offered. 6

7 OUTLOOK For the 2011/12 financial year our priorities are broadly unchanged: developing our portfolio of assets to maximise value for shareholders, delivering our investment programme in a disciplined manner, improving returns in our US business, inputting to the development of the UK regulatory framework and continuing to drive efficiency across the business. Our business is well positioned to capitalise on a number of important regulatory reviews. The UK RIIO regulatory regime, with its emphasis on investment and innovation, should provide significant opportunities for growth and we remain committed to working with Ofgem and other stakeholders to secure an attractive investment framework from 2013 onwards. In the US, we completed the rate case filings in our plan. While we are disappointed with the revenue outcome for Niagara Mohawk electric, the filings have delivered major improvements including revenue decoupling and cost tracking measures. The restructuring of our US business, announced in January, will underpin our progress and we are already seeing operational benefits from these changes. While several rate cases will need further review, we are now positioned in the US to make further improvements to our overall returns. As a result, we have a positive outlook for 2011/12 and expect to deliver another year of good operating performance, although comparative performance will be impacted by the timing differences that benefited 2010/11. 7

8 BASIS OF PRESENTATION Unless otherwise stated, all financial commentaries are given on a business performance basis 9 at actual exchange rates. The results for the current year are presented according to the reporting structure for the year. From April 2011 the reporting structure of the Group has changed with our UK and US businesses reporting along separate lines compared to the line of business reporting for 2010/11. For the year ended 31 March 2012, our results will be presented in line with the new reporting structure, with reporting expected to be separated into segments for UK Transmission, UK Gas Distribution and US. REVIEW OF RESULTS AND FINANCIAL POSITION Operating profit Year ended 31 March ( m) % change Revenue excluding stranded cost recoveries 13,988 13,631 3 Operating costs (9,143) (9,322) 2 Depreciation and amortisation (1,245) (1,188) (5) Operating profit actual exchange rate 3,600 3, Operating profit constant currency 3,600 3, Operating profit was 3,600m, up 476m (15%) on the prior period on a constant currency basis 10. This was primarily driven by timing related items across all of our businesses. The impact of timing items on the movement in operating profit from 2009/10 to 2010/11 is shown in the table below: Over/(under)- recovery, m 2010/ /10 Year-on-year change Balance at start of year (204) (14) In-year over/(under)-recovery 270 (163) 433 New licence allowances - (27) Balance at end of year 66 (204) Operating profit at constant 3,600 3, currency Adjust for timing differences (270) 163 (433) Operating profit excluding timing 3,330 3, Operating profit excluding timing increased by 43m despite the impact of negative inflation in 2009 on the revenues in our regulated UK businesses. The impact of RPI+X indexation added only 7m to our UK revenues in 2010/11, compared to a 150m increase in the previous year. Regulated controllable operating costs reduced by 39m (a 5% reduction in real terms) and US bad debt expense reduced by 35m. Overall, including the unusually low level of RPI+X indexation and the favourable impact of higher volumes, incremental benefits from rate case filings and new customer additions in the US, total net revenues across our regulated businesses 11 increased by 203m. This was more than offset by increased costs in those businesses, including an 89m increase in post-retirement costs 12, 41m higher depreciation and 77m increase in other costs, principally capital expenditure related operating 9 Business performance results are the primary financial performance measure used by National Grid, being the results for continuing operations before exceptional items, remeasurements and stranded cost recoveries. Remeasurements comprise gains or losses recorded in the income statement arising from changes in the fair value of commodity contracts and of derivative financial instruments to the extent that hedge accounting is not achieved or is not fully effective. Stranded cost recoveries are costs associated with historical generation investment and related contractual commitments that were not recovered through the sale of those investments. Commentary provided in respect of results after exceptional items, mark-to-market remeasurements and US stranded cost recoveries is described as statutory. Further details are provided in note 3 on page 35. A reconciliation of business performance to statutory results is provided in the consolidated income statement on page Constant currency basis refers to the reporting of the actual results against the prior period results which, in respect of any US$ currency denominated activity, have been translated using the average US$ exchange rate for the year ended 31 March 2011, which was $1.57 to The average rate for the year ended 31 March 2010, was $1.58 to Regulated businesses are the Transmission, Gas Distribution and Electricity Distribution & Generation businesses. 12 Post-retirement costs include the cost of pensions and other post employment benefits 8

9 costs and higher property taxes and 27m lower operating profits from our non-regulated and other businesses. Adjustments for foreign currency translation were 3m. Group return on equity was 14.1% for the year compared to 15.0% in 2009/10, reflecting the significant increase in group equity following the rights issue, mostly offset by higher earnings and an increase in the RPI uplift on UK regulatory asset value. The Group s return on equity measure is calculated using the actual cost of debt and reflects the overall financing structure for the Group, including debt held at holding company level to provide greater balance sheet efficiency. Our operational returns (a UK measure) and returns on regulated equity (a US measure) are calculated using the assumption that the businesses are financed in line with the regulatory adjudicated capital structure. The returns are a measure of how the businesses are performing operationally against the assumptions used by the regulator. Operational returns in our UK regulated businesses continue to outperform the levels assumed when setting base allowed revenues, in part driven by strong incentive performance. The impact of low/negative RPI inflation in 2009 on revenues in 2010/11 was the primary cause of a small reduction in the returns in our UK Transmission businesses. Reduced replacement expenditure incentive performance also lowered the return in UK Gas Distribution. Overall returns on regulated equity in our US businesses improved in the current year to 8.2% compared to 6.9% in 2009/10 in part driven by higher weather related volumes. The improvement also reflects some incremental benefits from new rates in some businesses in The returns in our upstate New York and Rhode Island businesses in particular are below the level assumed by the regulator when setting the rate plans and are likely to require further rate filings, in addition to our cost reduction programme, to bring these returns up to acceptable levels. Net finance costs were 1,134m, 2% lower than the prior period. Higher RPI inflation this year increased the interest charged on our index linked debt, which represents around 30% of our long term debt. This was offset by lower net pension charges and lower overall net debt, reflecting the benefit of the cash proceeds of the rights issue. Our effective interest rate on Treasury managed debt for the year was 5.8%, 5.2% after adjusting for the impact of the rights issue cash receipt compared to 4.6% in 2009/10. Interest cover at 31 March 2011 was 3.8x, down from 3.9x at 31 March 2010, remaining above our target range of 3.0 to 3.5x. The movement mainly reflected the increase in the interest charge on our index linked long term debt. Profit before tax was up 25% to 2,473m. The tax charge on profit was 722m, 169m higher than the prior year, reflecting increased operating profits, particularly in our US businesses. Our effective tax rate increased to 29.2% from 28.0% in 2009/10, principally due to an increased proportion of US profits. As a result, earnings were up 329m on the prior year at 1,747m. Earnings per share increased 4% from 49.5p (restated) last year to 51.7p. Exceptional items and remeasurements and stranded cost recoveries increased statutory earnings by 412m after tax. A detailed breakdown of exceptional items, remeasurements and stranded cost recoveries can be found on page 35. After these items and non-controlling interests, statutory earnings for continuing operations attributable to shareholders were 2,159m. Statutory basic earnings per share from continuing operations were 63.9p compared with 48.4p (restated) for the prior period. Operating cash flow, before exceptional items, remeasurements, stranded cost recoveries and taxation, was 4,658m, 512m higher than the prior period. 9

10 Funding and net debt Net debt fell to 18.7bn at 31 March 2011 compared with 22.1bn at 31 March 2010, reflecting the receipt of 3.2bn of cash from the rights issue and the impact of the weakening of the US dollar-pound exchange rate on our dollar denominated debt. In order to manage our cash resources efficiently we have used around 1.3bn of cash to redeem a range of debt securities and bank loans. This will help optimise near term financing costs while retaining the balance sheet capacity to fund the increasing capital investment programme in the medium term. We are committed to financing our business in a manner consistent with maintaining an efficient balance sheet and optimising our cost of capital. External debt is raised by our operating companies, intermediate holding companies and by the Group parent company, National Grid plc. We typically aim to hold an amount of debt in each of our regulated operating companies that maintains a debt to equity ratio consistent with that assumed by the relevant regulator. Most of these companies are subject to "ring-fencing" conditions which restrict the amount of debt that can be raised in any individual company and separate their credit ratings from that of the Group. Given the scale of our total businesses, and the additional cash generating characteristics of many of our non-regulated activities, additional debt is raised outside of our operating companies to maintain an efficient overall debt equity structure, reflecting our target credit metric of Funds from Operations to Interest cover of around 3.0 to 3.5x. As a result, at 31 March 2011 we had approximately 6.8bn of borrowing net of related derivatives outside of our operating companies. Our UK operating companies have low single A credit ratings and we expect our key credit metric for the current year to be comfortably above the minimum level required for these. Since March 2010, Moody s Investor Services, Fitch Ratings and Standard & Poor s have all reaffirmed our operating company credit ratings with stable outlook. 10

11 TECHNICAL GUIDANCE We provide technical guidance to aid consistency across a range of modelling assumptions of a technical, rather than trading or core valuation, nature. We will provide appropriate updates to this information on a regular basis as part of our normal reporting. The outlook and technical guidance contained in this statement should be reviewed together with the forward looking statements set out in this release in the context of the cautionary statement. Earnings Items Operating profit of 3,600m for the year included a number of timing differences, including the collection of revenues owed to our regulated businesses from previous years plus an over-recovery of revenues in 2010/11, together totalling 270m. These timing differences are, by their nature, very unpredictable, but our current expectation is that they will not recur in 2011/12. The closing balance of over-recovery for National Grid as a whole at 31 March 2011 was 66m. In the normal course of events, that balance would be offset against revenue recovery in 2011/12. This would result in negative timing differences of 336m when comparing 2011/12 operating profit to the 3,600m reported number for 2010/11. UK inflation will contribute to an increase in our allowed regulated RPI+X linked revenues in 2011/12 of approximately 6%, around 180m. Similarly, UK inflation, as measured in March 2011, will increase UK regulated asset value by 5.3%, around 1bn. US revenues and rate bases are not index linked. We have announced a targeted run rate of US restructuring savings of $200m by March We would expect a portion of this to benefit performance in 2011/12 Guidance on the 2011/12 non-cash pension finance charge is for an increase in the net credit of around 50m for the year as a whole (2010/11: 25m credit). This is expected to contribute to a reduction in net finance costs in 2011/12. For the full year 2011/12, we expect our effective tax rate to be around 30%. We would expect a full year contribution from Grain LNG phase III to benefit 2011/12, along with the commencement of commercial operations at the BritNed interconnector. The depreciation charge for 2010/11 was 1,245m, up 57m compared to 1,188m in 2009/10, reflecting continued growth in our asset base. We would expect a similar increase in 2011/12. Investment and other items Capital expenditure for 2011/12 is expected to be broadly unchanged from that in 2010/11, reflecting the lower levels of investment in our non-regulated businesses, particularly Grain LNG and BritNed. Major projects in 2011/12 include work on the London cable tunnels, the London Array and the Western HVDC connection between Scotland and North Wales. The total gross cost of achieving our US restructuring savings is currently estimated at up to $100m, representing severance and other costs. This cash impact is expected to occur primarily in 2011/12. Part of the estimated severance costs associated with achieving these efficiencies, net of the associated pension curtailment gain, has been treated as an exceptional charge in the 2010/11 results. Net debt is expected to increase by around 1bn during 2011/12, excluding the effect of any exchange rate impacts. 11

12 REVIEW OF TRANSMISSION OPERATIONS Summary results Year ended 31 March ( m) % change Revenue 3,913 3,880 1 Operating costs (1,931) (1,984) 3 Depreciation and amortisation (463) (432) (7) Operating profit actual exchange rate 1,519 1,464 4 Operating profit constant currency 1,519 1,465 4 Operating profit by geographical segment Year ended 31 March ( m, at constant currency) % change UK 1,363 1,311 4 US Operating profit 1,519 1,465 4 Capital investment Year ended 31 March ( m, at actual exchange rate) % change UK 1,432 1, US Capital investment 1,742 1, Rate base* 2010/ /10 % change UK regulatory asset value ( m) 13,277 12, US rate base ($m) 1,201 1,117 8 Returns 2010/ /10 UK operational return (real) Electricity transmission 6.4% 6.6% Gas transmission 7.2% 7.6% US regulatory return on equity** (nominal) New England *** 11.7% 11.8% * Details of returns and rate base for all rate plans can be found at National Grid s estimate of US rate base: regulatory filings or an alternative US GAAP invested capital measure where either recent rate base filings are not available or where the actual filed rate base currently excludes certain regulatory asset balances. ** Weighted average return on equity based on regulatory asset value and rate base. *** In New York, our electricity, transmission and distribution activities (including our stranded cost recoveries) make a combined regulatory filing each calendar year. The combined New York rate base and returns are reported in our Electricity Distribution & Generation line of business. 12

13 Performance in 2010/11 Transmission operating profit was up 54m (4%) on a constant currency basis. This included the collection of 65m of revenues owed to our regulated businesses from previous years. This catch-up of revenues was a positive timing related item which, in principle, we do not expect to recur to the same extent in 2011/12 as the carried forward balance to be recovered is only an estimated 16m. In the previous year, revenues were under-recovered by 22m. As a result, adjusting for timing differences, operating profit excluding timing decreased by 33m as set out in the following table. Over/(under)- recovery, m 2010/ /10 Year-on-year change Balance at start of year (81) (32) In-year over/(under)-recovery 65 (22) 87 New licence allowances - (27) Balance at end of year (16) (81) Operating profit at constant 1,519 1, currency Adjust for timing differences (65) 22 (87) Operating profit excluding timing 1,454 1,487 (33) The reduction in operating profit excluding timing reflected a 31m increase in depreciation and amortisation charges arising from the ongoing capital investment programme, a 10m decrease in revenue from the LNG storage business and a 16m decrease in revenue from the French interconnector, reflecting less favourable GB-France market conditions. Transmission produced another strong year on its UK annual incentive schemes, the overall result of 48m being only marginally down ( 3m) on last year s record 51m. Negative inflation during the relevant period in 2009 meant that RPI+X indexation added only 7m to UK regulated revenues, compared to a 97m increase in the previous year, and other UK net regulated revenues added 30m, primarily additional entry and exit auction revenues. US net regulated revenues added 10m. Regulated controllable operating costs were 14m lower year-on-year offset by 16m higher post-retirement costs. Other net items, primarily capital expenditure related operating costs, reduced operating profit by 18m. The year-on-year movement in exchange rates had a 1m positive impact on operating profit. As a result, reported operating profit for the year was 1,519m. Transmission s UK regulated electricity and gas transmission businesses achieved operational returns of 6.4% and 7.2% respectively, outperforming our base regulatory assumptions for the year. The main contributory factors were strong incentive performance, particularly in managing system balancing costs, maintaining high levels of network reliability and managing entry and exit capacity. Our US transmission business continued to deliver operational returns on regulated equity at around the level allowed by the regulator. Investment activities in 2010/11 Capital investment in Transmission was 1,742m (48% of Group total 4 ), 17% higher than the same period last year. As outlined in May 2010, we expect to invest around 9bn of capital in our UK regulated electricity transmission business in the five years to 2015, around 2bn in our UK regulated gas transmission business and around 2bn in our US transmission business. During the year we invested 1,432m in capital projects in the UK. Major projects included starting an 8-year tunnelling programme as part of the first phase of our London cable tunnels project. This project is expected to cost around 700m over the next 4 years. In addition, we have applied to Ofgem for funding for the construction phase of the Western HVDC link, a project that National Grid Electricity Transmission is undertaking jointly with SP Transmission. Including associated substation works, our share of the project cost is expected to exceed 500m over the next 4 years. During the year we also 13

14 commenced a public consultation on the proposed connection of wind farms in mid-wales to our electricity transmission network and continued to consult on proposed connections for major renewable and nuclear developments to be made in East Anglia and Somerset. Investment of 310m in our US transmission networks included 99m on the New England East-West Solution project, where we are allowed an enhanced Federal Energy Regulatory Commission return on equity of 12.89%. These investments resulted in increases in our Transmission UK regulatory asset value and US rate base by 10% and 8% respectively, as compared to the prior year-end. Future activities The increase in UK capital investment that we are expecting is partly driven by the connection and transportation of new sources of energy generation. As at 31 March 2011, total generation capacity connected to the Great Britain Transmission system was 87GW, of which 6GW was renewable generation. In addition to the connected generation a further 79GW of generation capacity is contracted to connect in the future, of which 28GW is contracted to connect by 2015 and a further 36GW by Of the 64GW contracted to connect by 2020, 25GW is new offshore wind generation and 8GW is new onshore wind generation, with 9GW being new nuclear generation. Our UK electricity transmission business will be investing to connect the new generation in England and Wales and reinforce the system for the new flows of power. On 13 December 2010 the Secretary of State gave consent for a pressure reduction installation at Tirley in Gloucestershire. Construction started on this installation in March Accordingly, we envisage that the full contracted capacity of 950GWh in the Milford Haven gas pipeline will be available for winter 2012/13. 14

15 REVIEW OF GAS DISTRIBUTION OPERATIONS Summary results Year ended 31 March ( m) % change Revenue 5,335 5,226 2 Operating costs (3,577) (3,715) 4 Depreciation and amortisation (393) (374) (5) Operating profit actual exchange rate 1,365 1, Operating profit constant currency 1,365 1, Operating profit by geographical segment Year ended 31 March ( m, at constant currency) % change UK (2) US Operating profit 1,365 1, Capital investment Year ended 31 March ( m, at actual exchange rate) % change UK capex (6) UK repex US Capital investment 1,084 1,079 - Rate base* 2010/ /10 % change UK regulatory asset value ( m) Gas Distribution 7,520 7,001 7 US rate base ($m) New York 5,130 5,352 (4) New England** 1,928 1,873 3 Returns 2010/ /10 UK operational return (real) Gas Distribution 5.5% 6.3% US regulatory return on equity (nominal)*** New York 10.3% 9.4% New England** 1.5% 3.6% * Details of returns and rate base for all rate plans can be found at National Grid s estimate of US rate base: regulatory filings or an alternative US GAAP invested capital measure where either recent rate base filings are not available or where the actual filed rate base currently excludes certain regulatory asset balances. **2009/10 rate base and returns restated to exclude EnergyNorth *** Weighted average return on equity based on regulatory asset value and rate base 15

16 Performance in 2010/11 Gas Distribution operating profit was up 227m (20%) on a constant currency basis. This included the collection of 84m of revenues owed to our regulated businesses from previous years plus an overrecovery of 13m of revenue, which, in the normal course of events, would be offset against revenue recovery in 2011/12. This catch-up in revenues and over-recovery were positive timing related items which, in principle, we do not expect to recur in 2011/12. In the previous year, revenues were underrecovered by 105m. As a result, adjusting for timing differences, operating profit excluding timing increased by 25m as set out in the following table. Over/(under)- recovery, m 2010/ /10 Year-on-year change Balance at start of year (84) 21 In-year over /(under) recovery 97 (105) 202 Balance at end of year 13 (84) Operating profit at constant 1,365 1, currency Adjust for timing differences (97) 105 (202) Operating profit excluding timing 1,268 1, The increase in operating profit excluding timing reflected a 91m increase in net income, driven by the impact of new US rates and customer growth. Negative inflation during the relevant period in 2009 meant that RPI+X indexation did not contribute to additional UK regulated revenues, compared to a 54m increase in the previous year. Bad debts decreased by 37m and regulated controllable operating costs decreased by 1m. Post-retirement costs increased by 53m and depreciation and amortisation charges were up 19m. Other net items reduced operating profit by 32m, primarily reflecting increased US property taxes and environmental costs. The year-on-year movement in exchange rates had a 1m positive impact on operating profit. As a result, reported operating profit for the year was 1,365m. One measure of the financial performance of our UK regulated business is an operational return metric. We achieved a 5.5% operational return, outperforming base regulatory assumptions. This was mainly as a result of outperformance on operating expenditure and incentives, including incentives on mains replacement expenditure. In the UK, the coldest weather in December in over a century increased our emergency services workload and snowfall hindered our engineers ability to travel. As a result of this extreme weather, we have fallen short of six out of the eight standards of service for gas escapes, where we are required to attend 97% of the escapes between one and two hours of the report. In the US, our residential gas customer satisfaction ratings improved, moving to second quartile in JD Power s 2010 study from third quartile in the prior year though our commercial customer satisfaction ratings declined from second to fourth quartile. Overall, our US Gas businesses (48% of the total Gas Distribution operating profit) delivered the same return on regulated equity (7.9%) as in 2009/10, although performance varied by individual business. For example, our downstate New York gas businesses achieved a weighted average 10.3% return on regulated equity, above the base allowed return of 9.9%. Our Massachusetts gas business achieved a return of 1.7%, below the level assumed by the regulator, but this does not reflect the full impact of new rates agreed in November 2010 when we received a satisfactory decision from the Massachusetts Department of Public Utilities (MADPU) in relation to our filings for new rates in our Massachusetts Gas businesses. We were awarded an increase in revenues of $58m, based on a 9.75% return on equity and a 50% common equity ratio. Importantly, a number of mechanisms including decoupling, true ups 16

17 of pension costs and the commodity element of bad debts and a capital investment tracker were also approved. The Niagara Mohawk gas business and the smaller Rhode Island gas business did not achieve their allowed returns, delivering 6.2% and 0.3% return on regulated equity respectively. We will review the need to make further rate filings in these businesses. Investment activities in 2010/11 During the period, together with our gas distribution alliance partners, we have replaced around 1,800km of gas mains in the UK, resulting in total replacement expenditure ( repex ) of 476m, up 2% on last year. In the US, we are also allowed to earn additional revenue if new customers are added to the system. We added around 42,000 new gas customers during 2010/11. Overall, our investment in network infrastructure projects in the UK and US resulted in total capital expenditure (including repex) of 1,084m. Future activities and outlook We have a number of initiatives in place to drive further improvement in customer satisfaction and efficiency. Amongst these is the first release of the UK Gas Distribution Front Office which went live in October This programme has been in progress since January 2009 and will replace the key systems and processes which support the Gas Distribution business in the UK. Our US restructuring programme is expected to deliver a significant reduction in Gas Distribution operating costs which will be another significant step towards delivering our targeted returns from our US businesses. We filed our decoupling plan, consistent with enacted legislation, for our Rhode Island gas business in October 2010 and, once approved, this is expected to apply retroactively from 1 April In March 2011 our petition seeking revenue support for the costs of capital investment programmes for our Rhode Island gas distribution operations was approved for effect also from 1 April Annual gas distribution revenue will increase as a result by approximately $2m. In January 2010 we filed for $65m in additional annual revenues for the next five years to recover deferred balances, primarily environmental site investigation and remediation costs, associated with our New York City and Long Island gas companies. The filing is currently before the NYPSC. In November 2010, we filed a motion for recalculation on certain rate case items in Massachusetts worth approximately $10m in additional annual revenue. We expect a regulatory decision during the first half of 2011/12. 17

18 REVIEW OF ELECTRICITY DISTRIBUTION & GENERATION OPERATIONS Summary results Year ended 31 March ( m) % change Revenue excluding stranded cost recoveries. 4,212 3,963 6 Operating costs (3,414) (3,380) (1) Depreciation and amortisation* (201) (209) 4 Operating profit actual exchange rate Operating profit constant currency Operating profit by principal activities Year ended 31 March ( m, at constant currency) % change Electricity distribution Long Island transmission and distribution services (15) Long Island generation (27) Operating profit Capital investment Year ended 31 March ( m, at actual exchange rate) % change Electricity distribution (1) Long Island generation Capital investment (1) Rate base** 2010/ /10 % change US rate base ($m) New York 4,203 4,227 (1) New England 2,209 2,104 5 Returns 2010/ /10 US regulatory return on equity (nominal)*** New York 7.4% 6.1% New England**** 9.0% 2.7% * Excludes amortisation of intangibles. ** Details of returns and rate base for all rate plans can be found at National Grid s estimate of US rate base: regulatory filings or an alternative US GAAP invested capital measure where either recent rate base filings are not available or where the actual filed rate base currently excludes certain regulatory asset balances. ***Weighted average return on equity based on regulatory asset value and rate base ****2009/10 rate base and returns restated to exclude Granite State 18

19 Performance in 2010/11 Electricity Distribution & Generation operating profit was up 222m (59%) on a constant currency basis. This included the collection of 39m of revenues owed to its regulated businesses from previous years plus an over recovery of 69m of revenue, which, in the normal course of events, would be offset against revenue recovery in 2011/12. This catch up in revenues and over-recovery were positive timing related items which, in principle, we do not expect to recur in 2011/12. In the previous year, revenues were under-recovered by 36m. As a result, adjusting for timing differences, operating profit excluding timing increased by 78m as set out in the following table. Over/(under)-recovery, m 2010/ /10 Year-on-year change Balance at start of year (39) (3) In-year over/(under)-recovery 108 (36) 144 Balance at end of year 69 (39) Operating profit at constant currency Adjust for timing differences (108) 36 (144) Operating profit excluding timing The increase in operating profit excluding timing reflected 94m of additional net income, primarily due to the impact of new rates in Massachusetts and Rhode Island and including 37m of additional revenue driven by higher volumes, principally due to hot weather during the summer. This additional revenue occurred in the businesses where revenues were not decoupled from volumes for the whole or part of the year, including Niagara Mohawk Electric where decoupling was implemented in January Regulated controllable operating costs were 24m lower, post-retirement costs increased by 20m and bad debts increased by 2m. Depreciation and amortisation charges decreased by 9m and other net items decreased operating profit by 27m, primarily reflecting increased US property and other taxes. The period on period movement in exchange rates had a 1m positive impact on operating profit. As a result, reported operating profit for the year was 597m. Measures of our financial performance include the achieved regulatory returns on equity against the allowed levels used by our regulators for setting rates. In New England we achieved a weighted average 9.0%. This includes Massachusetts Electric and Narragansett Electric, both of which had new rate plans in place for the calendar year Our Generation business delivered a return on regulated equity of 11.2%. In our upstate New York electricity business, Niagara Mohawk, we achieved 6.8%. In January 2011, the New York Public Service Commission (NYPSC) agreed their final position on the Niagara Mohawk electric rate case and set new rates for 2011 for that business. These new rates came into effect on 1 February 2011, and allow for a full year of cost recovery over the 11 months as if new rates had come into effect on 1 January The NYPSC order allows for an increase in rates for 2011 of $119m. This is based on a return on equity of 9.3% and a common equity ratio of 48%. An amount equivalent to 20bp of the return on equity, approximately $7m p.a., is refundable to customers if we file for new rates before 1 January Of the $119m increase, approximately $40m represents a one off recovery of stranded costs. The increase in 2011 is entirely offset by extending the recovery period of certain deferred costs to prevent an increase in customer bills this year. The change in rates is therefore deferred until 2012 and will be subject to a filing in the summer of 2011 for the recovery of deferral balances. The recent decision on new rates in this business is unlikely to improve returns sufficiently, even with the help of our US cost reduction programme and we expect to file for new rates as soon as practicable in We have exceeded all our US regulatory customer satisfaction targets and customer service levels in Our residential electric customer satisfaction ratings improved, moving to third quartile in JD 19

20 Power s 2010 study from fourth quartile in the prior year and our commercial electric customer satisfaction ratings improved from third to second quartile. 2010/11 was characterised by some extreme weather, both during the summer and with heavy snowfall and blizzards during the winter. National Grid has worked under extreme conditions to meet peak demand loads and reconnect thousands of customers whose power was cut off by snow and ice. In New York and Long Island the businesses met all regulatory targets for reliability for Our 2010 reliability for Massachusetts was adversely affected by a single severe wind storm in February. We have filed a request for the exclusion of this storm from the service quality metrics and this request remains pending. If this request is denied, we may face a penalty of approximately $4m. In Rhode Island heavy rain in March 2010 caused severe flooding, leaving over 5,000 customers without power. We have not met the reliability standards in Rhode Island for 2010 and expect to pay a penalty of around $400k. Investment activities in 2010/11 Capital expenditure was marginally down (1%) on the prior year at 367m. In the US, we successfully commissioned the first rate-based US utility owned solar generation project in Massachusetts. Three more facilities were completed by December 2010 and the final solar site in Dorchester, Massachusetts is expected to be completed by Autumn Combined, the four completed sites will generate a total of 3.4MW of solar power currently making National Grid the largest owner of solar generation in the state. Future activities and outlook We have delayed our smart grid pilots in Massachusetts and New York due to the need to update for further technological advances and in consideration of the need to minimise customer bills in the current economic climate. We remain committed to smart investment and revitalising the grid, and we anticipate re-filing for a new pilot in Massachusetts shortly. Our US restructuring programme is expected to deliver a significant reduction in Electricity Distribution operating costs which will be another significant step towards delivering our targeted returns from our US businesses. We filed our decoupling plan, consistent with enacted legislation, for our Rhode Island business in October 2010 and, once approved, this is expected to apply retroactively from 1 April Our Rhode Island regulators have approved incremental funding of our expanded electric energy efficiency programs, which began in January In March 2011 our petitions for revenue support for the costs of capital investment programmes along with annual vegetation management and inspection and maintenance expenses were approved with effect from 1 April Annual electric distribution revenue will increase as a result by approximately $3m. In June 2010, the Long Island Power Authority (LIPA) issued a Request for Proposals (RFP) to provide utility services management on Long Island. National Grid is the current provider of these services to LIPA under a contract which is due to expire on 31 December LIPA's RFP called for selection of up to three shortlisted bidders in March 2011 with announcement of the winner around September or October. LIPA have yet to announce publicly the names of the three shortlisted bidders. 20