Understanding the GCC Education Sector a country by country guide

Transcription

1 Understanding the GCC Education Sector a country by country guide Country Profile: UAE This series of infographics provides a country by country overview of the education sector in the GCC. The UAE is one of the more mature markets in the region and remains a draw for investors, providers and students. Its scale and ambition remain undimmed, but what is the reality on the ground and what do the trends over time tell us about the education sector by segment? Finally what are the key differences between its two main markets Dubai and?

2 Overview of the education sector Figure 1: Structure of the UAE s education system1 Age British system American system Emirati system UAE National Regulators Dubai Regulators Ministry of Higher 18+ Postsecondary Postsecondary Education & Scientific Research (MoHESR) Postsecondary Commission for Academic Accreditation (CAA) 17 Regulators Centre for Technical & Vocational Education & Training (ACTVET) Vocational Education and Training Awards Council (VETAC) Secondary Secondary Secondary Secondary Secondary Elementary 8 Primary National Qualifications Authority (NQA) 16 Knowledge and Human Development Authority (KHDA) Ministry of Education (MoED) Elementary Kindergarten 5 4 Preprimary 3 FS 1 FS 2 UNESCO 1 Pre K Kindergarten Pre K Ministry of Social Affairs (MSA) Education Council (ADEC)

3 Figure 2: A growing youth population, especially in the K12 age group2 3,5 Population (') 3, 2,5 1, , 5 1,113 1,236 1, E 216E 217E 218E 219E 22E 221E 222E 223E 224E 225E Figure 4: The number of schools in the UAE with many of the parents demanding high academic standards is similar to the levels seen in the US4 Figure 3: Rising income levels3 Average HH Disposable Income, USD (') , OECD average UAE households have the highest average disposable incomes in the world (median US$113,82), with a real terms increase of 41.5% predicted by % 45.8% 33.1% US 37.1% 5 42.% 2.9% Australia 35.7% % 9.% UAE 36.9% 2 % 2% 41.8% 4% 21.3% 6% 8% 1% 1 According to principals, many of the parents demand high academic standards at their school A minority of the parents demand high academic standards Decile 1 Decile 2 Decile 3 Decile 4 Decile 5 Decile 6 Decile 7 Decile 8 Decile 9 Decile 1 23 Very few parents demand high academic standards Figure 5: The quality of education in the UAE remains high, despite the negative impact of including gross tertiary education enrolment in the Global Competitiveness Index. This rate reflects the unique demographic makeup of the UAE and its outbound student mobility rate, which is one of the highest in the world Global Competitiveness Index rankings comparison, vs Overall Quality of primary education Quality of higher education Primary education enrolment, net % Secondary education enrolment, gross % Tertiary education enrolment, gross % UN Euromonitor OECD (PISA 212 principal survey) Score th 12th 13th 12 th 9 th 94 th 98th 67 th 64 WEF (21516 (rank/14 countries) and 15 (rank/144)) OECD UAE National Agenda Target: 52 5 th 99 th Figure 6: The UAE s demanding aspirational goals PISA Reading Science Mathematics th not included Private Public OECD Average

4 Higher Education Figure 7: Despite a declining tertiaryaged population group, the UAE s tertiary enrolment rate has continued to rise to which 42, additional seats will be required by 22. The country has been a popular destination for students from abroad to come and study, being drawn to its international higher education institutions 1824 population & higher education enrolment by year and school type7 1,28 1,18 1,126 1,88 12, , 61,551 6, 52,926 63% 29 63% 21 64% % % 65% 111 (1) 9,325 (4) 2,33 (1) 2,418 (3) Umm Al Quwain 67% 5, 1,612 (2) 2,234 (1) 3,527 (1) 28,18 (6) 4, 3, 1, 45,677 47,7 19,213 19,49 15,323 32,77 38,281 24,78 39,127 26, ,212 27,58 21 Dubai All Other Private (31) 5,754 59,81 52,586 51,333 4,31 2, 19,794 (6) 23,153 2, 6, Fujairah 9,411 (3) 43,175 (54) 67% Ras Al Khaimah Dubai Sharjah ( ) = number of schools Figure 9: In Dubai, higher education enrolment has been growing faster than in since 21 and offers more universities, including international branch campuses, than any other Emirate9 Ajman Private 213 E 215E 216E 217E 218E 219E 22E Figure 8: and number of institutions by Emirate and school type, 2138 Public 1824 Population (') 4, 61% 28 Private ,164 2 Public 1, Population (') 123,564 1,6 1, 6 14, 1,185 1,2 CAGR: 7.3% (private) 5.3% (public) Population CAGR: 1.4% 1, ,26 35,489 23,153 48,58 3,728 28,18 2,59 (39%) 24,312 (41%) Dubai Private (Int'l) 26, Dubai Total Public Figure 1: Despite a strategic commitment from the government to promote STEM subjects and encourage more programme diversity, the field of Business and Economics remains popular for university graduates1 Food & Agriculture Sciences Foreign languages Arts & Design Medical Sciences Environment & Health Sciences Human & Social Sciences Public Private Communication & Media Sciences Information Technology Sharia & Law Education Engineering 211 Business & Economics MoHESR; UN; PwC analysis (2162 seat estimate;1824 population calculations only) MoHESR; KHDA ADEC; SCAD; KHDA MoHESR

5 Figure 11: graduates from private institutions, Figure 12: Dubai graduates from private international institutions, ,26 private enrolment* (4% of Abu Dubai total) 24,312 private enrolment* (41% of Dubai total) 4,221 private graduates 5,619 private graduates 63% Bachelor s 37% Master s 44% Bachelor s 52% Master s Top 3 Bachelor s Business 31% Top 3 Bachelor s/master s Engineering 1% Law 9% Business 63% Engineering Media & Design 13% 7% K12 Education Figure 13: Over 175, additional seats are predicted to be required by 22 in the UAE of which 9% are expected to be in the private sector 518 population & K12 enrolment and number of schools by school type in the UAE Population ( ) Population CAGR: 1.5% CAGR: 5.%(private); 1.1%(public) 1,45 1,38 1,82 1,17 1,112 1,19 1,113 1,138 1,163 1,188 1,213 1, ,2, ,, , 4 6, 67% 69% 7% 71% 72% 72% 73% 73% 74% 74% 75% 3 4, 2 2, Schools 1,4, E 216E 217E 218E 219E 22E Year Public Private Schools Public Schools Private Figure 14: K12 enrolment growth is coming from the private sector in every Emirate except Fujairah with Dubai leading the way14 35, 64% 3, 25, 89% 51% 2, 78% 83% 15, Private (% of total) 69% Public 1, 5, 3% Dubai 26 Sharjah 26 4% Ras Al Khaimah Emirate SCAD; MoHESR KHDA MoE; UN; PwC analysis (2162 seat estimate) 14 MoE % 26 7% Ajman 3% 28% 26 Fujairah 29% 41% 26 Umm Al Quwain

6 Figure 15: is predicted to require over 62, additional seats in 52 new private schools by 22 In Dubai 74,5 additional seats are predicted to be required in 5 new private schools 4, , 185 CAGR: 5% () 6% (Dubai) , 9% 9% 64% 65% 25, 89% 63% 88% 62% 88% 6% % 2, 15, 1, % 9% 67% 91% 91% 91% 69% 68% , * 216E 217E 218E % % E Schools and Dubai K12 private student enrolment and number of private schools15 22E % Percentage of total enrolment in respective Emirate Private enrolment Dubai Private Schools Dubai Private enrolment Private schools Focus on Dubai Figure 16: Dubai is seeing a need for more quality schools below AED 4, Spread of Dubai K12 private schools, 16 School size (number of students) 12, 1, IB UK US Indian MOE 8, 6, Outstanding 4, Good Acceptable Unsatisfactory 2, School fees (in thousands) Figure 17: Dubai s K12 private school utilisation rates across its diverse curricula market (212, )17 1, 9, 8, 7, 6, 96,25 seats () 84,219 enrolment () Overall utilisation: 89.5%(212), 87%() 93.6%(212) 88.6% () 1, 9, 89,294 8, 82.7% (212) 86.1% () 79,114 7, 6, 53,354 5, 4, 5, 92.7% (212) 84.2% () 45,937 3, 2, 18,186 1, 15,312 UK Indian US Students Curriculum SCAD; KHDA; PwC analysis (2162 seat estimate; based on current average school size per Emirate; *estimate only for ) KHDA; PwC analysis (213 school size) 17 KHDA MoE Seats 8,26 4, n/a (212) 93.3% () 7,656 IB 3, 2, 1, Seats 93.6% (212) 87.5%()

7 Figure 18: In Dubai UK and Indian curriculum schools continue to dominate but IB curriculum schools are becoming an increasingly popular option among parents Dubai K12 private school enrolment by curriculum18 14, 114,29 12, 6.7% 1, 84,612(65) 8, 6, 79,716 (32) 4, 16,486(15) 14,353 (11) 29, % 15,161(11) 13, % 3,851(6) MoE 213 US E Indian 217E 219E 22E Figure 2: Parents are increasingly able to choose Outstanding and Good rated schools as supply increases, meaning improvement is required in lowerrated schools to attract students Dubai K12 private school performance19 Dubai K12 private school utilisation rate by school rating (212 & )2 Outstanding 6% Share of private schools 218E ( ) = number of schools UK Figure 19: An increasing number of Outstanding and Good rated schools in Dubai as rated by KHDA 5% 47% 47% 45% 43% 41% 4% 36% 3.2% 55,528 48,493(31) 39,43(32) IB 4% 6.1% 14,297 55,821(54) 54,619 (21) 2, 2914 enrolment CAGR projected to 22 Overall enrolment CAGR: 6% Good 9.3% (212) 95.3% () 96.3% (212) 98.5% () 36% 3% 2% 9% 8% 1% 8% % Outstanding Good Acceptable 1% 6% 9% 9% Acceptable Unsatisfactory 6% % (212) 9.9% () Unsatisfactory 85.% (212) 79.5% () School Rating Figure 21: Indian and American curriculum schools are driving growth but British curriculum schools remain popular choices with parents considering admission to lower cost European higher education options K12 private school enrolment by curriculum21 1, 2914 enrolment CAGR projected to 22 Overall enrolment CAGR: 5% 9, 92, % % 59,89 4.2% 15.9% 8, 7, 6, 53,481 (45) 51,395 (48) 51,463 (43) 5, 4, 3, 18,384 (26) 15,619 (n/a) 2, 1, 13,737 (32) 29 Other SABIS & IB KHDA; PwC analysis KHDA KHDA 21 ADEC; SCAD; PwC analysis 18 54,698 39,989 (3) 27,699 (25) 213.7% 55,428 5,855 (45) 38,182 (41) 6.4% 14,314 (19) 15, % 13,71 (6) 13, % American 215E 216E 217E Indian UK 218E 219E 22E MoE ( ) = number of schools Focus on

8 Figure 22: Quality improvement still required despite progress in K12 private school performance22 8% 72% Share of private schools 7% 6% 5% % 3% % 15% 11% 1% 19% 17% % High performing In need of improvement Satisfactory School Rating Market Size (AED, in billlions) Figure 23: and Dubai K12 private school market size based on tuition fee (AED) and enrolment Dubai * 215* E 217E 218E 219E 22E PreK Education Figure 24: Formal prek education is increasing in popularity and is encouraged by the UAE government Total enrolment and number of nurseries24 6, 437 5, Nurseries , 2 1, 1 Nurseries CAGR: 13.2% 354 4, 3, 497 ( 92% private) E 216E 217E 218E 219E 22E Figure 25: To achieve the OECD average participation rate of 33% for 2 year olds by 22, over 81,5 additional seats will be required25 3, 295, (2 population) 274, 25, 2, UAE participation rate: 3% OECD participation rate: 33% 15, 9,4 1, 5, 8,9 215E ADEC ADEC; KHDA; PwC analysis (*estimate only for ) 22E MSA; UN; PwC analysis MSA; UN; PwC analysis (2162 seat estimate; based on 34% of nursery enrolment are 2 year olds)

9 Key players Figure 26: UAE key players in private education by size UAE: Ministry of Education (MoED), Ministry of Higher Education & Scientific Research (MoHESR), Commission for Academic Accreditation (CAA), Ministry of Social Affairs (MSA), National Qualifications Authority (NQA), Vocational Education and Training Awards Council (VETAC) PreK K12 (schools) HigherEd (enrolment) Local Regulators Bright Kids Kidz Link Kids First Group GEMS Education (7) University (4,5) Al Ain University of Science and Technology (4,5) Education Council (ADEC) Centre for Technical and Vocational Education and Training (ACTVET) Dubai Innoventures Kids First Group GEMS Education Taaleem GEMS Education (3) Taaleem (1) Innoventures (4) University of Wollongong (4,) Knowledge and Human HeriotWatt University (3,5) Development Authority (KHDA) American University in Dubai (2,6) Middlesex University (2,5) American University in the Emirates (2,5) GEMS Education (7) University of Sharjah (12,5) Ajman University of Science and Technology (9,) American University of Sharjah (6,) Rest of UAE Sharjah Education Council Ajman Educational Zone Ras Al Khaimah Educational Zone Fujairah Educational Zone Umm Al Quwain Educational Zone Contacts PwC works nationally and internationally in the education sector with governments, agencies and private sector organisations. If you want to talk to our Middle East team of dedicated specialists who focus exclusively on the education sector, please get in touch. Sally Jeffery Partner E: David Chang Senior Consultant E: david Roland Hancock Director E:

10 Correct at time of publication (2 March 216) 216 PwC. All rights reserved. PwC refers to the PwC network and/or one or more of its member firms, each of which is a separate legal entity. Please see for further details. Creative Design Centre 166 (3/16).