Dan Pallme Tennessee-Tombigbee Waterway Development Opportunities Conference. University of Memphis

Transcription

1 Dan Pallme Tennessee-Tombigbee Waterway Development Opportunities Conference University of Memphis

2 Freight is regional in Nature o Infrastructure o Statistics

3 o Road o Rail o River WIIFM

4 2013 Issues o 1. Hours-of-Service o 2. CSA o 3. Driver Shortage o 4. Economy o 5. Electronic Logging Mandate No final ruling o 6. Truck Parking HOS has brought additional focus o 7. Driver Retention - o 8. Fuel Supply/Fuel Prices o 9. Infrastructure/Congestion/Funding o 10. Driver Health/Wellness

5 Hours of Service Rules o Drivers can drive a maximum of 11 hours a day and work for 14 hours a day o They can drive no more than 70 hours in an 7 day period New changes to HOS o Effective date was 2/27/2012. The compliance date was 7/1/2013 o Although most of the trucking community was concerned with what FMCSA would do there were two significant changes. There is a change to the 34 hour re-set provision. They must include two periods between 1 a.m. 5 a.m. as part of the 34 hour re-start. Potential congestion issues 30 minute break between the first 8 hours of their shift Un paid What does this mean? ATRI Cost industry $189 million annually FMCSA - $133 million annual savings

6 CSA Compliance, Safety and Accountability History, Fall 2010 o Replaced SaferSys o Goal to reduce commercial motor vehicle crashes, fatalities, and injuries on the nations highways. o Background Check for Hazmat Endorsement English Language Requirement Health Standards of FMCSA Immigration Law Insurance Company Limitations Implementing NAFTA and trucking provisions

7 o FMCSA announced proposal on March13, 2014 Why? Analysis show it will reduce crashed by fatigued drivers and prevent 20 fatalities and 434 injuries each year for an annual safety benefit of $394.8 million Cost? FMCSA estimates mandate would cost business owners $1.6 Billion How does it make the highways safer? 35% of companies already use some form of electronic logging How will it work with on duty not driving? Driver privacy, harassment and increase efficiency for law enforcement personnel and inspectors o Overdrive magazine: 50% of respondents indicated a preference for retirement or another line of work over trucking with an electronic log. 1 in 4 stated they would find a way to make it work

8 Average age is 55 years old Lifestyle Government Regulations: CSA, Hours of Service, ELD s ATRI reports HOS o Estimated 3% to 6% reduction in loss o 67% of drivers report decrease in pay o 82.5% of drivers say new rule has affected life negatively o Commercial drivers are forced to drive in more congested peak times FTR Associates estimates driver shortage could be in the 250,000 range by the end of Stifel Nicolaus analyst stated is going to create a capacity shortage which will translate into fairly sizable rate increases.

9 o Wide variety of estimates Turnover rates ATA - 96% in 2013 ATA 82% in 2013 with truckload fleets with less than $30 million in annual revenue. (150 average truck fleet) ATA - LTL carriers at 11% for 2013 o What does this mean? For a 500 truck TL carrier at 100% turnover rate would spend about $2.5 million in recruiting drivers! (it costs about $5000 per driver estimate from the ATA). o Takeaway: Show me the money $$$$

10 1/3 Roads in poor or mediocre condition 1/4 Bridges structurally deficient or functionally obsolete $ 115B Hours 4.8B Annual congestion costs and time wasted by American motorists stuck in traffic Texas Transportation Institute

11 Receipts, Outlays, and Balances of Highway Trust Fund Projected shortfall by 2022: $57B Estimates based on CBO s May 2013 baseline projections? Increasing the Highway Trust Fund Time of Travel Fees Voluntary Gas Tax Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) Fees Tolls

12 Congestion cost trucking $9.2 billion in Measured only in wasted fuel and delay 141 Million hours of lost productivity (or 51,000 truck drivers sitting idle for a working year) 89% of the congestion costs concentrated on only 12% of the Interstate mileage (mostly urban areas) Alternatives or solutions to reduce congestion: Extended hours Company hours Weekend hours Build new roads Construction at off peak hours Flex time or flexible work schedules

13 Revenue per ton-mile rose 2.6% Carloadings were up 8.1% Ton miles rose 1.6% Increased reports of car and locomotive shortages Capex: $21.5 Billion (44% of capex on maintenance infrastructure) Crude oil emphasis Perceived safety potential issues Weather issues in the first quarter o Still Trying to dig out o Shippers upset with service and reliability Freight Revenue Increased 3.6%

14 Potential Strike on the West Coast? Panama Canal? o Potential shift in freight flows to East Coast o Will it change shipping patterns and open up other opportunities Maersk announced intermodal stress fee $25 to $35 per container import and export

15 ISO Containers 8.2% growth of intermodal numbers over 2013 in the Quarter. 5.5% growth over 2013 YTD 2014 Poised to be the best year since the recession Spot Market Loads up 40% from July, 2014 to 2013 According to Cass Truckload Linehaul Index, 7.2% more in truckload rates over 2013 July numbers Housing should grow in the South where 53% of the homes are being built Could put capacity crunch on drivers more in the south Modest growth Journal of Commerce In 2013 the revenue of the Top 50 carriers grew at its slowest pace since the Great Recession Mergers should grow in trucking Journal of Commerce 4/14/14- Revenue growth in 2013 came through acquisition

16 Steady improvement of overall economic conditions No dramatic change in environment As truck driver shortage continues, rates should rise to get additional demand for the market. Stronger year for truck manufactures as fleets continue to update Global economic environment remains volatile Higher rates will happen in all sectors Modal shift will continue as all factors play a part of the total cost. Public / Private Partnerships to enhance supply chain Wheel and deal Collaborative partnerships

17 In closing, WIIFM Thank you, thank you very much! Contact Information o Dan Pallme o depallme@memphis.edu o