Fuzzy Risk Evaluation Method for Information Technology Service

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1 Fuzzy Rsk Evaluato Method for Iformato Tehology Serve Outsourg Qasheg Zhag Yrog Huag Fuzzy Rsk Evaluato Method for Iformato Tehology Serve Outsourg 1 Qasheg Zhag 2 Yrog Huag 1 Shool of Iformats Guagdog Uversty of Foreg Studes Guagzhou P R Cha zhqash01@126om 2Correspodg uthorr SuYat-se Busess Shool Su Yat-se Uversty Guagzhou P R Cha huagyr@malsysuedu bstrat Ths paper presets a ew fuzzy rsk evaluatg method for formato tehology (IT) serve outsourg whh the rsk fators are easly assessed by fuzzy value ad the rsk grades of eah rsk fator are evaluated by fuzzy lgust values rather tha real umbers By usg the fuzzy etropy formula ad the fuzzy omprehesve judgmet matrx we alulate the ourrg probablty of eah fuzzy rsk fator ordg to the terval that the alulated fuzzy omprehesve rsk probablty les the rsk rate of the IT serve outsourg a be determed whh a further faltate the IT serve outsourg deso makg Keywords: IT Serve Outsourg Etropy Fuzzy Judgmet Matrx Fusuzzy Rsk Evaluato 1 Itroduto Iformato tehology (IT) serve outsourg [1] a play a mportat role the eterprse formatozato ostruto ad t has draw may atteto of researher The task of IT serve outsourg for eterprse s to provde the auxlary work to some other ompettve IT suppler d the outsourg eterprse may fous o the ore busess whh a greatly ehae the effey ad ompetee of the total eterprse However due to the omplete deso strategy the wked legal evromet ad the umerted seleto of IT serve outsourg suppler the outsourg eterprse wll evtably fae to may uerta rsk fators ludg formato asymmetr rsk otrat rsk eterprse ost rsk maagemet rsk ad ulture rsk tehology rsk of suppler et I fat due to the reasg omplexty of the soo-eoom evromet ad the lak of kowledge about the problem doma most of the rsks IT outsourg maagemet ad deso are volved varety of fuzzess lke fuzzy value or fuzzy lgust values Thus t s a eesstous task for IT serve outsourg eterprse deso-maker to evaluate the fuzzy omprehesve rsk ad adopt the orrespodg strategy to redue the probablty of the ourree of emergey the proess of IT serve outsourg Reetly some sholars studed the IT serve outsourg strategy ad ts advatageousess [2-5] lso some rsk aalyss methods for IT outsourg have bee proposed For example Wag [6] studed the suppler seletg problem IT outsourg proess from qualtatve aalyss aspet lthough Zhog [7] employed fuzzy etropy ad omprehesve judgmet method to alulate the ourrg probablty of IT serve outsourg rsk but t s based o tradtoal Shao etropy d L [8] dsussed the HR outsourg based o fuzzy omprehesve judgmet t s uable to evaluate the rsk grade I fat most of the exstg rsk aalyss methods a oly deal wth the prese rsk omputg [9] Eve most fuzzy rsk omputg methods stll fous o the qualtatve aalyss they a ot effetvely ope wth the rsk evaluatg ad rsk grade determg volved fuzzy rsk fator Thus the fuzzy rsk aalyss beomes a very mportat researh ssue s s well kow the uexpeted ad uotrolled outsourg rsks easly ur the emergey IT serve outsourg So order to avod or derease the rsk there s muh eed to aalyze ad otrol the rsk of IT serve outsourg [10-13] I ths paper we am to propose a effetve method for evaluatg the rsk of IT serve outsourg the uerta evromet I order to alulate the probably of rsk fator we employ the fuzzy etropy formula ad fuzzy omprehesve judgmet matrx to ompute the ourrg probablty of fuzzy rsk fator d seto 3 we trodue the fuzzy rsk evaluatg proess of IT serve outsourg wth fuzzy Joural of Covergee Iformato Tehology(JCIT) Volume 7 Number 19 Ot 2012 do : /jtvol7ssue

2 Fuzzy Rsk Evaluato Method for Iformato Tehology Serve Outsourg Qasheg Zhag Yrog Huag evaluato values I seto 4 oe umerous example s gve to demostrate the effetveess of the proposed fuzzy rsk evaluatg method by usg the fuzzy formato etropy measure 2 Prelmares Fuzzy set trodued by Zadeh [14] s a useful exteso of the lass set whh has bee proved to be more sutable way for dealg wth vagueess ad uertaty Partularly the formato etropy [15-16] smlarty measure ad dstae measure [17] of FSs play very mportat roles the extesve applato areas suh as patter reogto [18] medal dagoss ad multrtera deso-makg [19-23] Defto 1[14] fuzzy set the fte uverse X { x1 x2 x} s defed as {( x ( x )) / x X} ad the odto 0 ( x ) 1 must hold for ay x X where ( x ) s alled the membershp degree of elemet x to the fuzzy set We deote all the fuzzy sets uverse X by F (X ) Defto 2 Let B be two fuzzy sets the fte uverse X { x1 x2 x} the uo terseto ad omplemet of fuzzy sets are defed as follows B {( x ( x ) ( x )) x X} B {( x ( x ) ( x )) x X} {( x 1 ( x )) x X} Defto 3 mappg from all the fuzzy sets uverse X to terval [ 01] s amed as the fuzzy etropy f t satsfes the followg exteso of DeLua-Term axoms ( [15]) (p1) H () =0 (mmum) f s a rsp set e ( ) 0 or 1 for all x X ; (p2) H () =1 (maxmum) ff ( x ) 0 5 for all x X ; (p3) H ( ) H () f e s a sharpeed verso of defed as B B x ( x ) ( x ) ( x ) ( x ) for for ( x ) 05 ( x ) 05 (p4) H () H ( ) where s the omplemet set of fuzzy set Proposto 1[17] Let X x x x } oe a easly prove that H () = 1 d( ) s { 1 2 a fuzzy formato etropy measure of fuzzy set where d( ) s the ormalzed dstae measure betwee fuzzy sets ad 1 B ) 1 For oveee here we take dstae d( B) ( x ) ( x the fuzzy etropy of set as 1 the we a get 1 1 H () =1- ( x ) ( x ) =1-2 ( x ) 1 (1) Defto 4 The rsk represets the uertaty of the loss of some evet regardg the probablty of all the ufavorable rsk fators ad ther loss severty For oveee here we oly 1 612

3 Fuzzy Rsk Evaluato Method for Iformato Tehology Serve Outsourg Qasheg Zhag Yrog Huag defe the rsk of IT serve outsourg as the omprehesve probablty of all the adverse fators the formato tehology serve outsourg 3 fuzzy rsk aalyss method for IT serve outsourg wth fuzzy rsk fators s s well kow the IT serve outsourg eterprse wll possbly fae to may kds of rsk fators wth dfferet probabltes Espeally the uerta evromet the aurate value of rsk fator s dffult to measure However t a be easly evaluated by fuzzy set the real-lfe world By fuzzy omprehesve judgmet matrx we a oveetly judge the possblty grade of eah rsk fator d by employg the proposed fuzzy rsk aalyss method we a effetvely evaluate the orrespodg rsk grade of IT serve outsourg Through questoare survey ad statst aalyss we a easly get some mportat rsk fator the IT serve outsourg s we kow the rsk fators the proess of mplemetg IT serve outsourg maly lude the suppler seletg rsk the otrat rsk the poltal ad legal evromet rsk ad the deso strategy rsk et Suppose the set of rsk fator of IT serve outsourg s deoted by U { u1 u2 um} Geerally the rsk fator s always fuzzy oept for example good poltal evromet ad umerted suppler seleto s we kow the aurate value of the severty of loss ad the ourrg probablty of eah rsk fator s dffult to measure real-lfe omplex evromet O the otrary people ad experts a easly evaluate the above probablty of eah rsk fators of IT serve outsourg by usg fuzzy laguage terms lke P = {Very Low Low Medum Hgh Very Hgh} I order to evaluate the rsk rate of IT serve outsourg ad provde early warg for eterprse we should set the dfferet rsk grade frstly For oveee ad for sake of effetvely early warg for the IT serve outsourg eterprse here the fve rsk grades of IT serve outsourg are preestablshed ad haraterzed by the followg fuzzy lgust terms Table 1 Lgust terms for ratg the IT serve outsourg rsk grades Lgust terms Iterval degrees Very lkely our (VL) [08 10] Lkely our (L) [0608] Medum (M) [0406] Ulkely our (U) [0204] Very ulkely our (VU) [00 02] For oveee we deote all the fve rsk grades by the set G { G 1(VL) G 2 (L) G 3 (M) G 4 (U) G 5 (VU) } Based o the above rsk aalyss ad the prevous formulae here we gve the fuzzy rsk omprehesve evaluato proess for the IT serve outsourg volved wth fuzzy rsk evaluato value Step 1 Let U be the set of all fuzzy rsk fators { u1 u2 um} ad gve the judgmet set V { v1 v2 v} for rsk ourrg probablty v j ( j 12 ) deotes the dfferet probablty grade of eah rsk fator ourree ssume the fuzzy judgmet matrx s R ( r j ) m r j s the fuzzy membershp value of rsk fator u wth respet to the judgmet rtera v j whh a be gve by the kowledge ad experee of feld experts Step 2 By usg etropy formula (1) we ompute the etropy of eah fuzzy value the fuzzy omprehesve judgmet matrx ad get the etropy matrx of ths judgmet matrx as D ( h j ) m where hj s the etropy value of r j Step 3 Normalze the etropy values the deso matrx by usg the followg equato: hj hj max j hj j m (2) 613

4 Fuzzy Rsk Evaluato Method for Iformato Tehology Serve Outsourg Qasheg Zhag Yrog Huag d the ormalzed etropy matrx s expressed as D ( h j ) m Step 4 Calulate the ourrg probablty of fuzzy rsk fator by applyg the trasformer: w 1 hj j 1 m m hj 1 j 1 12 m (3) Step 5 Calulate the omprehesve rsk value aordg to the above probablty ad the judgmet matrx of all the rsk fators the IT serve outsourg by the followg P W R ; U W V where W U deotes the weght vetor of all the rsk fators; W V s the weght vetor of all the judgmet rtera v j WV s the traspose of W V Step 6 Calulate the smlarty measure S R G ) betwee the fuzzy omprehesve rsk value R ad eah pre-establshed rsk grade G j ( j Step 7 Determe the rsk rate of the ukow IT serve outsourg From the alulated rsk value we a determe the rsk grade of the IT serve outsourg If P Gk where Gk s the k-th rsk grade the pre-establshed grade set G { G 1 (VL) G 2 (L) G 3 (M) G 4 (U) G 5 (VU) } the the rsk rate of ths IT serve outsourg should belog to the gve grade G ordg to the rsk grade the eterprse deso-maker a make effetve deso to dede whether t s worth mplemetg IT serve outsourg Moreover the fuzzy rsk evaluato grade of ths IT serve outsourg a help eterprse adopt the orrespodg outsourg strategy ad soluto to otrol ad redue the rsk of outsourg or derease the ourrg probablty of uexpeted emergey IT serve outsourg 4 pplato Example Reetly fuzzy sets as a useful tool to deal wth mperfet fats ad data as well as mprese kowledge have draw the atteto of may researhers order to perform patter reogto medal dagoss ad deso makg I ths seto we gve a umer example to llustrate the applato of the proposed fuzzy rsk evaluatg method for IT serve outsourg uder uerta evromet Suppose a eterprse wll try to arry out IT serve outsourg there s muh eed to evaluate the IT serve outsourg rsk frstly ssume the IT serve outsourg trasatos are subjet to may fuzzy rsk fators { u 1 u2 um } whh a be evaluated by fuzzy judgmet rtera { v1 v2 v} ssume the fuzzy omprehesve judgmet matrx s expressed by R ( r j ) m C deotes the set of judgmet rtera ad r j ( v j ) deotes the membershp degree that the th rsk fator belogs to the j th judgmet rtera The fuzzy rsk evaluatg problem s to dede whh rsk grade out of the fve grades G1 G2 G5 the IT serve outsourg should belog to d the ma task s to determe the ourrg probablty of eah fuzzy rsk fator ad alulate the fuzzy omprehesve rsk of IT serve outsourg Example 1 Suppose a eterprse wll mplemet the IT serve outsourg so t eeds evaluate the omprehesve rsk of IT serve outsourg ad make fal outsourg deso ssume the set of fuzzy rsk fators U ={ u 1 (wrog outsourg strategy) u 2 (mproper suppler hoe) u 3 (omplete Cotrat) u 4 (wked poly evromet)} must be take to aout the IT serve outsourg d the ourrg probablty of eah rsk fator s ukow but may be k 614

5 Fuzzy Rsk Evaluato Method for Iformato Tehology Serve Outsourg Qasheg Zhag Yrog Huag evaluated by a fuzzy judgmet rtera V { v 1 (Very Low) v 2 (Low) v 3 (Medum) v 4 ( Hgh) v 5 ( Very Hgh)} The evaluatg results are expressed by a fuzzy omprehesve judgmet matrx where v ( 1 j 5 ) deotes the dfferet ourrg possblty value of eah rsk fator of IT serve j outsourg ad r j s the membershp degree of -th fuzzy rsk fator belogs to the j-th judgmet rtera as Table 2 lso the fve rsk grade of IT serve outsourg expressed by fuzzy lgust terms are pre-establshed ad orrespod to the fve terval umbers Table 1 Table 2 The judgmet matrx of rsk fator regardg the judgmet rtera Rsk fator v 1 v 2 v 3 v 4 v 5 u u u u Our ma task s to determe the rsk grade of the IT serve outsourg volved wth fuzzy values d the the eterprser a make orrespodg deso ad adopt some strategy to avod or derease the rsk of IT serve outsourg ordg to the prevously metoed fuzzy rsk evaluatg method what follows we wll employ the proposed fuzzy etropy measure to alulate the probablty of eah fuzzy rsk fator IT serve outsourg Frst from the fuzzy value Table 2 we a express t as the followg fuzzy omprehesve judgmet matrx of rsk fators wth respet to all the judgmet rtera R ( r j ) where r j represets the membershp value of rsk fator u wth respet to probablty grade v j for example r represets the true membershp of rsk fator u 2 belog to the rsk grade v 1 s 04 By usg the fuzzy etropy formula (1) we a ompute the formato etropy of eah fuzzy value the above fuzzy judgmet matrx ad get the followg etropy matrx D ( h j ) Wth formula (2) we trasform the above etropy matrx to the ormalzed etropy matrx below 615

6 Fuzzy Rsk Evaluato Method for Iformato Tehology Serve Outsourg Qasheg Zhag Yrog Huag D ( h j ) The wth the formula (3) we a obta the ourrg probablty of eah rsk fator by the followg formula W U 5 1 hj j 1 w hj 1 j So we a get the weght vetor of all the fuzzy rsk fators as =( ) I fat t represets the ourrg probablty vetor of all the rsk fators the proess of IT serve outsourg Next assume the weght vetor of all judgmet rtera set V s W V ( ) From the prevous formulae (4 we alulate the fuzzy omprehesve rsk value below P W R U W V =( ) = Se 04944[04 06] the fuzzy omprehesve rsk of IT serve outsourg should belog to G 3 grade ad the rsk of ths outsourg may be medum That s to say mplemetg IT serve outsourg wll udertake medum rsk of grade G 3 The eterprse deso-maker must selet the orrespodg strategy to derease the rsk of IT serve outsourg ad avod the emergey ourrg the proess of eterprse IT serve outsourg before the eterprser mplemet the IT serve outsourg order to obta the great beefts ad ompetees for ompay 5 Coluso We employ a fuzzy formato etropy measure to alulate the ourrg probablty of eah rsk fator ad ompute the fuzzy omprehesve rsk of IT serve outsourg Fally aordg to the terval degree the evaluated fuzzy omprehesve rsk value les we a assg the ukow IT serve outsourg to the proper rsk grade whh a help the eterprser make the orret deso aord wth the orrespodg rsk grade kowledgemets Ths work s supported by the Humates ad Soal Sees Youth Foudato of Mstry of Eduato of Cha (Nos 12YJCZH281 10YJC790104) the Guagzhou Phlosophy ad Soal See Plag Projet The study of early warg dex seleto ad urget deso mehasm for ty sgfat emergey uerta evromet (No 2012GJ31) the Natoal Natural 616

7 Fuzzy Rsk Evaluato Method for Iformato Tehology Serve Outsourg Qasheg Zhag Yrog Huag See Foudato (Nos ) the Fudametal Researh Fuds for the Cetral Uverstes Cha ad the Guagdog Prove Hgh-level Talets Projet Referees [1] MC Laty IT outsourg: maxmze flexblty ad otrol Harvard Busess Revew vol 5 pp [2] X Che The Researh o Rsks ad vodable Measures of IT Serve Outsourg Joural of Offe Iformatozato vol 10 pp [3] ZF L DQ Che The rsk maagemet strategy formato tehology outsourg Sees ad See Tehology Maagemet vol 2 pp [4] XP Wag IT outsourg-a ew way of eterprse formatozato ostruto Cha Maagemet Iformatozato vol 2 pp [5] HW Yag B Dog The aalyss of eterprse formato tehology outsourg Iformats Sees vol 7 pp [6] J Wag BY Yag The vestgato of formato tehology serve outsourg suppler evaluato seleto Cha Colletve Eoomy vol 2 pp [7] RQ Zhog YJ Xe pplato of fuzzy rsk assessmet ad etropy oeffet software outsourg See Tehology ad Egeerg vol 11 pp [8] L L The Rsk alyss of HR Epboly Based o the Fuzzy Itegrated Evaluato Joural of Zhoga Uversty of Eooms ad Law vol 4 pp [9] JL We Rsk Evaluato Method for the Hgh-Tehology Projet Ivestmet Based o ET- W Operator wth 2-Tuple Lgust Iformato Joural of Covergee Iformato Tehology vol 5 o10 pp [10] H Lu SR Su The rsk of IT resoure outsourg ad ts preauto strategy Eterprse Eoomy vol 2 pp [11] GH Ne XG Zhou The rsk ad preauto of eterprse s IT outsourg See dvaemet ad Strategy vol 4 pp [12] S Xu MM Hu ZR L The applato of rsk matrx trasato outsourg rsk evaluato Maagemet Moderzato vol 2 pp [13] Y Yag GQ Huo The eterprse formato tehology resoure outsourg ad ts rsk aalyss Cha Soft See vol 3 pp [14] L Zadeh Fuzzy sets Iformato ad Cotrol vol 8 o 3 pp [15]XG Shag W S Jag ote o fuzzy formato measures Patter Reogto Letters vol 18 pp [16] Q S Zhag S Y Jag Relatoshps betwee etropy ad smlarty measure of tervalvalued tutost fuzzy sets Iteratoal Joural of Itellget Systems vol 25 pp [17] XC Lu Etropy dstae measure ad smlarty measure of fuzzy sets ad ther relatos Fuzzy Sets ad Systems vol 52 o 3 pp [18] S M Lbell Cotrol of SBR swthg by fuzzy patter reogto Water Researh vol 40 o 5 pp [19] DH Hog Multrtera fuzzy deso-makg problems based o vague set theory Fuzzy Sets ad Systems vol 114 o 1 pp [20] JC Hou Grey Relatoal alyss Method for Multple ttrbute Deso Makg Itutost Fuzzy Settg Joural of Covergee Iformato Tehology vol 5 o 10 pp [21] PD Lu Y Su The exteded TOPSIS based o trapezod fuzzy lgust varables Joural of Covergee Iformato Tehology vol 5 o 4 pp [22] Y Zhag Researh o the Pre-Evaluato Methods o Performae Balae of Computer wth Itutost Fuzzy Iformato dvaes Iformato Sees ad Serve Sees Vol 4 o6 pp [23]Y Wag pproah to Software Seleto wth Tragular Itutost Fuzzy Iformato Iteratoal Joural of dvaemets Computg Tehology Vol 4 o2 pp