Quebec Liberals lead on eve of final campaign weekend; movement of CAQ vote hurts PQ

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1 s lead on eve of final campaign weekend; movement of vote hurts PQ Marois deemed best premier by 20% of eligible voters. April 4, 2014 The s under leader Philippe Couillard head into the last days of that province s election campaign with a comfortable lead over Premier Pauline Marois, thanks in part to a shift in the vote. A poll conducted by Angus Reid Global four days before election day indicates 39 per cent of likely voters in are backing the s, compared to 27 per cent for the PQ and 25 per cent for the under François Legault. led by Françoise David earns the backing of 7 per cent of likely voters. Leader Momentum The majority (56%) believe is on the wrong track, including most past and voters (69% and 75% respectively). Troublingly for the PQ: one-third (34%) of that party s past voters also see the province on the wrong track. Across all voters Couillard is top choice for best premier (30%) followed by Legault (23%) and Marois (20%). Page 1 of 8 More bad news for Marois: while nine per cent of ers say their opinion of the PQ leader has improved since the beginning of the election campaign, 50 per cent say it s worsened. By comparison, 27 per cent of voters say their say their opinion of Coulliard has improved since the writ dropped while one-third (34%) have dimmed their view of the leader. François Legault has fared best in this campaign with 37 per cent thinking better of him in the last four weeks and 15 per cent thinking worse. The Shift KEY FINDINGS s 39%, PQ: 27%, : 25%, QS: 7% among likely voters Best Premier: Couillard: 30%, Legault : 23%, Marois: 20% Key issues: Economy: 51% Health: 49% Detailed tables are found at the end of this release. Angus Reid Global conducted an online survey among 1410 randomly selected adults who are Angus Reid Forum panelists from April 2-4, The margin of error which measures sampling variability is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding. Unfortunately for Legault, his positive personal momentum is not translating to party momentum. Instead, it appears many voters who chose the in 2012 are thinking more seriously about the s and Couillard. Voter retention tells the story: three quarters (74%) of likely voters supporting the PQ in this election also chose that party in In the case of the s, 85 per cent of their 2012 supporters who are likely voters say they ll back them again this time. Fewer of the s past voters are on side this time. Among likely voters supporting the, 58 per cent were there in One third

2 Page 2 of 8 (33%) of the 2012 vote has moved to the s, while the rest (7%) has shifted support to the PQ. It is possible that some support may swing to the in the last days of the campaign should the s start to look too strong for past voter comfort. Key Campaign Issues The arrival of PQ star candidate Pierre-Karl Peladeau on the campaign hustings was a game changer for Marois and her party but not in the way the leader intended. While Pleadeau raised the spectre of separation, ers had other issues on their minds. Half (51%) say the economy and jobs was the most important issue in the election. About as many (49%) said health care was foremost in their mind, followed by government spending/debt (29%). One quarter chose corruption. The same number chose the Charter of Values. Only 12 per cent of ers identified a sovereignty debate/referendum as the most important campaign issue. The Referendum and Sovereignty Scare Rather than being an ace in the hole for the PQ, the possibility of a referendum became the party s greatest liability, even among its own supporters. Nearly 70 per cent of ers (68%) say they are against a referendum in the next five years. Among ers who say they will vote for the PQ on Monday, fewer than half (45%) believe a majority PQ win would give the party a mandate to hold a referendum if it felt conditions were right. More than half (55%) of likely PQ voters say the party hasn t been clear enough with ers on this subject. When asked if a referendum were held tomorrow, twice as many ers say they d vote against sovereignty than for it (59% to 28%). When analysed by party 94 per cent of past voters would choose to stay with Canada, as would 80 per cent of past voters, and one-fifth of past PQ voters. Which party s candidate will you be most likely to support? Likely Voter French English 27% 31% 1% 39% 30% 90% /Caolition Avenir 25% 28% 3% 7% 8% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% /Independent 1% 1% 1%

3 Page 3 of 8 Which party s candidate will you be most likely to support? Likely Voter 74% 1% 7% 7% 60% 12% 23% 3% 85% 33% 17% 6% 48% 28% /Caolition Avenir 12% 12% 58% 14% 6% 9% 9% 1% 1% 57% 7% 7% 1% 0% 21% 0% 0% 5% 25% 11% /Independent 1% 1% 1% 38% How certain are you that you will actually end up voting for this party? Likely Voter Will Support I will definitely vote for this party, no way I could change my mind I will probably vote for this party I could change my mind before voting day 75% 80% 54% 55% 41% 31% 39% 19% 14% 32% 31% 59% 27% 37% 7% 6% 14% 14% 43% 24%

4 Page 4 of 8 Overall, do you think is on the right track, or the wrong track? Right track 19% 40% 7% 7% 22% 37% 18% 5% Wrong track 56% 34% 69% 75% 57% 49% 64% 74% Not sure 25% 27% 24% 18% 20% 14% 17% 21% Which of the party leaders do you think would be the best Premier of? Pauline Marois 20% 52% 2% 3% 9% 37% 5% 4% Philippe Couillard 30% 4% 72% 29% 9% 36% 33% François Legault 23% 16% 15% 56% 16% 7% 7% 18% Françoise David 9% 11% 2% 4% 56% 7% 11% 19% Not sure 18% 16% 9% 8% 10% 49% 40% 26%

5 Page 5 of 8 Since the beginning of the election campaign, would you say your opinion of each of the following has improved, stayed the same, or worsened? Improved Pauline Marois 9% 21% 1% 4% 4% 20% 10% Philippe Couillard 27% 4% 56% 35% 16% 10% 35% 28% François Legault 37% 34% 34% 57% 36% 32% 23% 21% Françoise David 22% 27% 15% 25% 40% 10% 16% 12% Since the beginning of the election campaign, would you say your opinion of each of the following has improved, stayed the same, or worsened? Worsened Pauline Marois 50% 20% 76% 63% 56% 34% 69% 74% Philippe Couillard 34% 62% 5% 25% 44% 72% 27% 24% François Legault 15% 19% 11% 5% 23% 11% 21% 15% Françoise David 11% 10% 13% 10% 4% 23% 18% 37%

6 Page 6 of 8 What would you say are the most important issues in this election? PQ QS The Economy and Jobs 51% 46% 60% 61% 35% 31% 33% 58% Health Care 49% 48% 56% 49% 41% 48% 33% 22% Deficit / government spending 29% 23% 31% 37% 16% 33% 24% 66% Corruption / Ethics 25% 34% 14% 24% 28% 52% 32% 22% Charter of Values / Identity 25% 38% 16% 15% 28% 36% 19% 7% Taxes 16% 9% 19% 22% 10% 13% 30% 29% Education 16% 16% 18% 12% 25% 25% 23% Infrastructure 12% 8% 14% 14% 11% 13% 13% Sovereignty Debate / Referendum 12% 12% 16% 5% 11% 26% 6% 11% Social services 10% 12% 7% 4% 21% 15% 5% 7% Environment 8% 11% 4% 3% 23% 15% 14% 6% Energy / Hydro 6% 6% 5% 5% 11% 7% 6% 4% Community issues - safety, recreation 1% 0% 0% 5% 2% 1% 1% 2% 4%

7 Page 7 of 8 Are you personally in favour or against having another sovereignty referendum within, say, the next 5 years? Eligible Voter French English In Favour 32% 36% 6% Against 68% 64% 94% If a sovereignty referendum were held tomorrow, would you yourself vote: YES in favour of sovereignty, or NO against? Yes 28% 64% 1% 12% 41% 69% 14% 17% No 59% 20% 94% 80% 48% 15% 66% 75% Not sure/can t say 13% 16% 5% 8% 11% 16% 20% 8% Regardless of your personal feelings about a referendum -- If the wins a majority government in this election, would you say that gives them a clear mandate to hold a referendum if they feel conditions are right? Yes, PQ would have a mandate No mandate, they have not been clear enough with voters on this 28% 41% 22% 21% 27% 38% 24% 20% 72% 59% 78% 79% 73% 62% 76% 80%

8 Page 8 of 8 Angus Reid Global is a public affairs practice of Vision Critical, headed by Dr. Angus Reid, Canada s best known and longest practicing pollster. He s spent more than four decades asking questions about what people feel, how they think and who they will vote for. He is supported by a team of practitioners conducting high quality research for corporations, governments and non-profit organizations. Visit the website: Learn about our electoral record /Follow on Twitter About Vision Critical Vision Critical is a global research and technology firm that creates software and services solutions for over 600 clients, including one third of the world s top 100 brands. The company has offices across North America, Europe and Australia as well as a Global Partner Program that provides other research companies and consultants with access to top-of-the-line technology. Its Sparq product is the most widely adopted community panel platform on the planet. Visit the website: