Teacher Supply and Demand Report. For the Victorian Teacher Supply and Demand Reference Group

Transcription

1 Teacher Supply and Demand Report For the Victorian Teacher Supply and Demand Reference Group

2 Published by the Human Resources Division Department of Education and Early Childhood Development Melbourne October 212 State of Victoria (Department of Education and Early Childhood Development) 212 The copyright in this document is owned by the State of Victoria (Department of Education and Early Childhood Development), or in the case of some materials, by third parties (third party materials). No part may be reproduced by any process except in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright Act 1968, the National Education Access Licence for Schools (NEALS) (see below) or with permission. An educational institution situated in Australia which is not conducted for profit, or a body responsible for administering such an institution may copy and communicate the materials, other than third party materials, for the educational purposes of the institution. Authorised by the Department of Education and Early Childhood Development, 2 Treasury Place, East Melbourne, Victoria, 32. ISBN This document is also available on the internet at

3 Contents Executive Summary 5 1. Introduction 7 Methodology 6 Factors Impacting on Supply and Demand 6 Actions Taken to Address Workforce Trends 7 2. National Data and Other Education Sectors 1 School Workforce 1 Workforce data in early childhood and VET Sectors 11 Early Childhood Education and Care Workforce School Workforce in Victoria 15 Historical Trend in School Staff Numbers 14 Teaching Workforce 15 Gender 16 Age Supply 19 Completion of Initial Teaching Qualifications Australia 19 Participation in Initial Teaching Programs in Victoria 2 Offers 21 Acceptances 21 Enrolments 22 Destinations of Graduates from Teaching Courses 26 Graduate Teachers in Government Schools Demand 33 Historical Trends 33 Projected Trends in School Aged Population 35 Attrition of Ongoing Teachers in Government Schools 37 Government Teaching Workforce Taking Leave 38 Fixed Term Employment 4 Casual Relief Teachers 4 Difficult-to-fill Vacancies Matching Supply and Demand 46 Appendix 1: Teacher Supply and Demand Reference Group 48 Appendix 2: Data Tables 49 References 63 Endnotes 64

4 Executive Summary The Teacher Supply and Demand report presents information about the school teaching workforce in Victoria in 21 and 211. It updates the picture presented in the 29 report. It is the ninth edition of a series of reports commencing in 21. The report focuses on: the national picture of teacher supply and demand trends the composition of the Victorian teaching workforce in the Government, Catholic and Independent sectors; the outlook for the Victorian teaching workforce over the next four years likely supply and demand. The report provides information and analysis of the broader national context of school teacher supply and demand and a brief overview of workforce issues in the early childhood and vocational education and training sectors. National Picture of the School Workforces A range of recent research has been undertaken which provides information about teacher supply and demand at a national and school sector level. In 211 this includes the completion of the Staff in Australian Schools national survey and the Productivity Commission s investigation into the education and training workforces. Demand expected strong growth in student numbers a more complex and demanding teaching environment increased competition for teaching resources, particularly from the early childhood sector. Supply an expected upsurge in age-related retirements the quality of applicants to teacher education courses continuing difficulty in balancing practicum supply and demand expected undersupply of early childhood teachers to meet the increase in demand due to national reforms. The Victorian Government has implemented a range of strategies to boost supply of quality teachers, particularly in hard to staff locations and subject areas. School Workforce in Victoria Overall teacher numbers in Victorian schools continued to grow, particularly in independent schools. Teaching is a highly feminised profession in Victoria, with women making up approximately 7% of the workforce. In government schools the proportion of teachers aged 5 years and over has grown to 37.4% in 211 as has the proportion of teachers aged less than 35 years, to 32.5% in 211. The Catholic school teacher workforce has aged, with both the proportion of teachers aged 5 years and over increasing to 4.3% in 211 and the proportion of teachers aged less than 35 years decreasing to 21.3% in Teacher Supply and Demand

5 Supply Interest in undertaking undergraduate teacher education courses is strong, with first year enrolments increasing from 3,31 in 21 to 4,272 in 211. Interest in undertaking a graduate entry teacher course in Victoria is also strong with total enrolments of 3,351 in 21. Final year enrolments in these initial teaching courses are increasing, totalling 5,223 in 21 and 5,662 in 211 (a ten year high). In 21 nearly 8% of graduate entry teaching course graduates were employed as teachers, compared with 68% of undergraduate teaching course graduates. Demand The number of teachers employed in Victorian schools was 72,521 in 21 (43,29 in government schools, 15,847 in Catholic schools and 13,384 in independent schools). Teacher attrition rates in Victoria are expected to average approximately 5% until 215. The demand for teachers is predicted to increase due to increased school enrolments, especially in secondary schools. There has been a decrease in the proportion of primary (1.7%) and secondary school (3%) students in government schools while enrolments in non-government schools have increased. Growth in student enrolments is predicted to continue, with growth in primary enrolments occurring earlier than in secondary schools. There has been a small but consistent decrease in student teacher ratios from 21 to 21. The proportion of government school teachers working part time increased from 17.5% in 21 to 23.% in 211. For Catholic schools the rate was 3.5% in 211. Matching Supply and Demand Forecasting teacher supply and demand is a complex process, impacted significantly by a range of internal and external factors. The current projections place teacher supply and demand in surplus in Victoria for the period 212 to 215. For primary school teachers the predicted surplus in supply is an average of 14 per year and for secondary teachers an average of 58 per year. While there is an overall balance between supply and demand for teachers, there are some geographical and subject areas which have shown historical trends of excess demand. DEECD monitors this in Victorian government schools. There is excess demand in some areas for mathematics, science (physics and chemistry) and teachers of languages. Executive Summary 5

6 1. Introduction This report presents information about the school teaching workforce quantum and flow in Victoria for 21 and 211. It updates the picture presented in the 29 Teacher Supply and Demand Report and is the ninth edition of a series commencing in 21. The publication of this report aims to provide information to assist workforce planning for a range of education sector organisations and assists teacher education institutions to identify areas of need they may consider to focus on in course delivery. The report provides information on: the national picture of teacher supply and demand trends the composition of the Victorian teaching service in the government, Catholic and independent sectors the outlook for the Victorian teaching service over the next four years likely supply and demand. Methodology Information presented in this report is drawn from a range of sources. These include the National Schools Statistics Collection (Australian Bureau of Statistics), administrative records for both government and Catholic schools, Victorian Institute of Teaching, Victorian Tertiary Admissions Centre, Graduate Careers Council and annual surveys conducted in government schools by the Department of Education and Early Childhood Development (DEECD). The most up to date information available has been used. Independent sector (the non-catholic non-government sector) data have been sourced from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). In projecting student numbers for all sectors, historic trends in student enrolments and year-to-year transition rates have been extrapolated forward. In projecting teachers required in Victorian schools a similar model is used for the nongovernment sector (both Catholic and independent) as is used for the Government sector. These figures are then adjusted on the basis of the various student teacher ratios provided in the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) publication Schools, Australia. The Teacher Supply and Demand Reference Group considers that extrapolation of the data that were available in both the government and Catholic sectors would provide adequate representation of teacher supply and demand across Victoria. Factors Impacting on Supply and Demand The Productivity Commission has recently identified a range of issues and challenges which are likely to impact on the capacity of the national education workforce to contribute to high quality learning outcomes. Although the Commission has a national perspective, these factors are also largely applicable to Victoria: Demand expected strong growth in student numbers a more complex and demanding teaching environment increased competition for teaching resources, particularly from the early childhood sector. Supply an expected upsurge in age-related retirements the lower average entry quality of those seeking to become teachers availability of practicum ongoing imbalances in workforce demand and supply often limited workforce mobility, especially between urban and rural and remote areas Teacher Supply and Demand

7 Most of these challenges have either already arrived or have been on the horizon for a number of years and Victoria has responded with a range of targeted initiatives. Nevertheless, sustained effort is required to ensure risks are addressed effectively. To the above can be added a range of policy developments that will or are already having an impact on teacher supply and demand, including: National initiatives in teacher education and registration The Australian Institute for Teaching and School Leadership (AITSL) has developed national professional standards for teachers, a national system for the accreditation of preservice teacher education courses and a system for nationally consistent registration of teachers. These initiatives are currently being implemented and are likely to have some impact on the supply of teachers in Victoria. For example, the move to mandatory two-year graduate entry teacher education programs may impact on supply particularly in the transition years. Changes in the Higher Education sector 212 has seen the introduction of a market-driven higher education system for undergraduate courses and measures to increase participation of students from low socioeconomic status. The impact of these changes on teacher supply is not yet clear and will require close monitoring. Actions Taken to Address Workforce Trends The Victorian Government has provided a number of measures aimed at improving the supply, capacity and quality of teaching and learning in 21 and 211. These measures have included: State Government Funded Initiatives Refresher Courses for Teachers Returning to Government Schools: assists qualified teachers wishing to update/refresh their knowledge before returning to teach in government schools. Approximately 267 teachers utilised this program in 21 and a further 274 in 211. Teaching Scholarship Scheme: provides final year student teachers with financial incentives and employment opportunities in schools with difficult-to-fill vacancies. In 21 and final year students each year were supported through this program. Student Teacher Practicum Scheme: encourages student teachers to undertake their practicum in rural locations or outer metropolitan areas by providing financial support. 235 student teachers were supported through this program in 21 and 243 in 211. Special Education Scholarship Program: enables current teachers to obtain special education qualifications. The numbers of teachers supported through this program was 25 in 21 and 81 in 211. Special Education Autism Scholarships: enables current teachers to obtain special education qualifications specifically in Autism education. Twenty-five scholarships per year over four years were funded through this program with the final intake commencing study in 213. Maths and Science Graduate Scholarship: encourages graduates who have completed a mathematics or science degree to undertake a teaching qualification. In 21 there were 72 people supported through this program. Career Convert Scholarship: enables non-teaching professionals to undertake a teacher education course while employed as a supervised trainee teacher. The program had one intake in 21 and supported 22 people to take up teaching as a career. Teacher Quality National Partnerships Initiatives in Victoria As part of the Council of Australian Governments (COAG) national agenda, a National Partnership Agreement on Improving Teacher Quality (TQNP) was finalised in December 28. The TQNP supports a range of ambitious, nationally significant reforms, which underpin other national initiatives to improve schooling, and includes within its ambit support for innovative programs that would (a) attract the best entrants to teaching, and (b) place teachers to minimise skill shortages and enhance retention. Introduction 7

8 DEECD has obtained TQNP funding to implement a number of programs with direct relevance to these objectives. These are as follows: Career Change Program: enables non-teaching professionals to undertake a teacher education course while employed as a supervised trainee teacher. The program had an intake of 3 participants in 21 and 211, and will have a further intake in 212. Teach For Australia (TFA): prepares outstanding graduates from all degree disciplines for teaching in disadvantaged schools. In 21 there were 43 participants and in 211 there were 34. Graduate Pathways: provides assistance for graduates in priority degree disciplines to undertake education training and financial incentives to attr4act them to government schools upon becoming qualified. The program commenced in 211 with 4 participants, and will continue in 212 with a target of supporting a further 4 graduates. Graduate Retention Incentive Program: provides financial incentives over four years to retain 1 high quality teacher graduates appointed to hard to staff rural schools. In participants were recruited to the program, and further recruitment is underway. Special Education Scholarships: enables current teachers and those returning to the profession to obtain special education qualifications. In scholarships were provided, with the priority areas being autism and hearing impairment. Indigenous Scholarships: provide indigenous people with financial assistance to undertake teacher education courses. Target groups include VCE students, current students in the final year of teacher training, and current employees seeking to qualify as teachers. The target is to support 3 Indigenous people in two intakes in 211 and 212. Early Childhood Initiatives Employment Incentives for Early Childhood Educators: Incentives have been made available to attract early childhood educators to work in hard-to-staff positions. Six early childhood teachers received an employment incentive in 21 and 25 were awarded in 211. Early Childhood Qualification Fund: provides scholarships to existing early childhood educators working in licensed children s service or approved education and care service to gain a further qualification. In 21 8 scholarships for undergraduate and graduate early childhood teaching degrees were awarded, and in early childhood teacher scholarships were supported. Aboriginal Early Childhood Teacher Scholarships: provides scholarships to Diploma qualified Aboriginal early childhood educators to upgrade to an early childhood teaching qualification. In 21 six scholarships were awarded and a further four were provided in 211. Looking Forward Some of these programs are continuing in 212 and a new one is joining the suite. Science Scholarships: a new science scholarship begins in 212 which will support 4 science graduates to complete their teaching qualification Teacher Supply and Demand

9 2. National Data and Other Education Sectors Main Points National Education reforms and workforce studies have highlighted the need for reliable workforce data collections in all education sectors on which to track trends in workforce supply and demand. School Workforce The teaching workforce has been growing in line with growth in student enrolments, and the non-government school sector has experienced more growth than the government sector. More teachers have been employed on contract and part time employment arrangements in recent years. Unfilled vacancies have decreased significantly in schools between however difficult-to-fill vacancies have remained much the same. Early Childhood Education and Care Workforce There is a projected shortfall in the supply of early childhood teachers as demand is projected to increase with policy changes in the sector from 212. Vocational Education and Training Workforce Growth in demand for VET course delivery is expected to continue both in TAFE and private providers, especially in areas of skill shortages in the broader labour market. The VET workforce is older than Early Childhood and Care workforce and schools workforces. There has been an increased national focus on collecting and understanding education workforce data in recent years. This has been mainly driven by the National Education reforms set down by the Council of Australian Governments (COAG), and the increased need to plan ahead to ensure an adequate supply of qualified people to become educators for the future. This report includes some data from national sources, including the 21 National Early Childhood Education and Care Workforce Census and the Vocational Education and Training Teaching Workforce surveys (commissioned by DEEWR). A national survey of teaching staff in schools has been conducted by the Australian Council for Educational Research (the Staff in Australian Schools Survey). In addition; the recent work of the Productivity Commission has encouraged an integrated approach to the analysis and planning of the education workforce, including early childhood and care, schools and VET workforces. The Commission has published final reports for Early Childhood Development and the Vocational Education and Training workforces, while the final report on the School Workforce is due in April 212. Further information about each of these reports can be found at: Other data collections which are not directly referenced in this report but have related objectives are: The National Teaching Workforce Dataset the initial dataset is currently being developed and should be available by mid-212. It aims to provide national data across workforce characteristics which are key to effective workforce planning. The National Longitudinal Teacher Workforce Study a longitudinal study of recent teacher education graduates is underway which will measure the effectiveness of teacher education courses and teacher workforce patterns and flow in the early career years over four years. The Teaching and Learning International Survey (TALIS) 28 and 213. The 213 survey will have a strong focus on teachers professional environment, teaching conditions and the impact on school and teacher effectiveness National Data and Other Education Sectors 9

10 School Workforce On a full-time equivalent basis, the paid school workforce in Australia includes more than 25 teaching staff, principals and other school leaders and nearly 8 teacher assistants and administrative staff. There were 251,421.8 FTE teachers in Australian schools in 21, with 72,521 FTE (25.3%) in Victorian schools. For Australia, 5.9% of teachers were teaching primary classes, with 47.1% in primary classes in Victoria. Figure 2.1: FTE Teachers in primary and secondary schools, Victoria and Australia, 21 3, 25, 2, Secondary Primary 15, 1, 5, Vic Australia Source: National School Statistical Collection (NSSC) Table 51a In-school staff (FTE), Schools, Australia 21 Analysis undertaken by the Productivity Commission indicates that the structure and nature of this workforce has been changing in various ways: The proportion of the teaching workforce employed in non-government schools has steadily risen in line with a similarly changing pattern of student enrolments. The workforce is ageing, with the rate of age-related exits anticipated to rise in the coming two decades. Contract and part time employment has been growing, with the workforce also more feminised. (The ratio of female to male teachers overall is about two to one, and at the primary level it exceeds four to one.) Class sizes and hence student teacher ratios have been progressively reduced. There is evidence to suggest a lowering of the average literacy and numeracy skills of females entering teacher training courses. Staff in Australia s Schools Survey Two Staff in Australia s Schools (SiAS) surveys have been conducted by Australian Council for Educational Research (ACER) for the Department of Education, Employment and Workplace Relations (DEEWR), in 26-7 and 21. The surveys provide a picture of the Australian teacher and leader workforce. The surveys provide additional useful information not available through other sources and present a national context for examining the situation of the school teaching workforce in Victoria. Areas covered by the study include: demographic background of teachers, their qualifications, current position, professional learning, career path, activities outside teaching, future career intentions, views on teaching and leadership, school staffing and teacher appraisal. The report also includes an additional focus on early career teachers and leaders. The 21 report was released in January 212. Key findings from the 21 report, including comparisons with 27 data include: Age: The average age of the primary school teacher workforce is decreasing (from 42.3 to 42.), while that of the secondary school workforce increasing (43.5 to 44.5) Teacher Supply and Demand

11 The average age of primary teachers in Victoria (42.3) is slightly higher than the national average while for secondary teachers it is slightly lower (44.3); average age is highest for secondary teachers in special needs, LOTE, VET, physics and maths subject areas Gender: The percentage of teachers who are female is continuing to grow at both primary (79% to 81%) and secondary (56% to 57%) levels. In Victoria, the proportion of female teachers was lower in primary schools (8.3%) and higher in secondary schools (58.8%) than the national levels. Employment mode: Full-time and ongoing employment rates are both higher for secondary teachers compared to primary teachers. However full-time employment for secondary teachers fell from 85% to 82%. Out-of-field teaching: Levels of out-of-field teaching have generally fallen across subject areas but still account for 29% of the sample population. Professional learning: Levels of reported professional learning activity across subject specialties have generally fallen. Work intentions: The average years that Victorian teachers intend to continue working in schools is lower than the national average for both primary (13.9 v 14.5 years) and secondary schools (11.5 v 12.2 years). Unfilled and difficult-to-fill vacancies: The proportion of primary and secondary principals reporting unfilled vacancies in Terms 3/4 of 21 fell significantly from 27 while reported major difficulty in suitably filling vacancies stayed much the same at 5% and 9% respectively of principals. Early career teachers: Victoria has a higher percentage of early career teachers than the national average for both primary (28.7 v 24.8) and secondary sectors (22.5 v 2.1). Workforce data in early childhood and VET Sectors The Council of Australian Governments (COAG) has agreed on common strategic frameworks to guide government action on early childhood development, schooling and vocational education and training (VET) across Australia. Particular reference was made to cross-sectoral and integrated service delivery within the terms of reference including workforce skill and training needs; job design and employment agreements, implications for workforce planning across the sectors; and attracting and retaining workers. 1 Early Childhood Education and Care Workforce A national Early Childhood and Care (ECEC) Workforce Census was commissioned by DEEWR and conducted in partnership with state and territory governments in 21. The survey covered 11,558 childcare services and 4,82 preschool services across Australia of which a quarter (4,83) were located in Victoria. 2 Key findings from the survey include: The ECEC workforce nationally was estimated at 139,187 persons, with 25,475 or 18% employed in preschools. For Victoria the total workforce in 21 was estimated to be 32,116 with 7,294 (23%) employed in early childhood services. Note: The National Census did not include a large number of Victorian occasional care services and is therefore likely to have underestimated the size of the Victorian workforce by approximately three to four thousand staff. The Census gives the number of teachers working in Victorian kindergartens or long dare care settings in 21 as 2,939. Preschool staff were older on average than primary school teachers. The median age for preschool staff was 44.6 years (compared with 42 years for primary teachers), with 12.5% under 3 (23% for primary teachers) and 3.8% over 5 years old (compared with 27% nationally of primary teachers). Early childhood teachers are overwhelmingly female. The proportion of staff in preschools with a teaching qualification was 43% (8,45 nationally). A further 1, people have teaching qualifications and are working in other early childhood education and care settings. National Data and Other Education Sectors 11

12 A preschool program is a structured play based learning program aimed at children in the year or two before they commence formal schooling. These programs are delivered in long day care or in preschool services. The Census identified preschool programs when the program was delivered by a qualified teacher with at least a Bachelor degree in ECEC teaching and that the program was based on a curriculum or learning framework. Around 37% of long day care services nationally delivered a preschool program, for Victoria this was 44% (487 services). For preschool services, the national rate was 84%, for Victoria the rate was 88% (1335 services). From 214, under the National Quality Framework, all centre based services with more than 25 places will be required to employ a qualified early childhood teacher. Of the 1,522 staff delivering preschool programs in preschools nationally, 68% had a three-year bachelor degree or above, with approximately three quarters of these staff having a four-year bachelor degree or higher. The rates for Victoria were similar, with 2,9 workers with a four-year bachelor degree or higher in either preschool or long day care programs and a further 78 workers with a three-year bachelor degree. The median number of weekly hours worked by these staff was 31 hours. This census surveyed ECEC staff about similar topics to SiAS for teachers. These areas included job satisfaction, plans to stay within the sector, receipt of recognition of prior learning, current study/professional learning, and attitudes to study and income. Preschool service workers report a similar level of job satisfaction to teachers, 92%, but they report lower satisfaction with pay and conditions (5%). They also report high morale and team spirit in their workplace (85%) and supportive management (81%). Less than half agree that their job is important because of the high status and positive recognition in the community. The Productivity Commission study into the ECEC workforce considered the implications of the government reforms for the 14, workers that comprise the early childhood education and care workforce. Key findings of the report include: There is a projected shortfall in the supply of early childhood teachers as demand is projected to increase with policy changes in the sector from 212. To meet the targets specified in the reforms, more workers will be required, and the average level of workers qualifications will need to increase. The wages of workers in most early childhood education and care employment categories will need to rise because of these factors, and need to match wage relativities with the primary school sector for teachers. The supply of suitably qualified workers is likely to take some time to respond, and exemptions from the new standards (waivers) will be required. Government timelines for reform appear optimistic. The increase in demand for qualified ECEC workers implicit in the reforms will require a significant increase in training, particularly from the vocational education and training sector. Professional development and support for early childhood development staff will need to improve to ensure the benefits of additional training are enduring, and to give all workers the opportunity to understand the wide ranging pedagogical and regulatory reforms in the sector. Vocational Education and Training Workforce A report by the National Centre for Vocational Education Research (NCVER) observed that obtaining an accurate picture of the size, distribution and characteristics of the Vocational Education and Training (VET) workforce is difficult. This is partly because VET staff could be working in a variety of roles and settings. For example staff working in VET could work in a Technical and Further Education (TAFE) institute, dual sector university, private registered training organisation (RTO), school or other educational setting. The workforce includes VET trainers and a range of non-teaching staff that support the organisation and delivery of VET programs. In recent times there have been various data collections that provide some insight. These vary in their scope however they provide some data on which to draw a picture of the workforce characteristics. The NCVER study, Vocational Education and Training Workforce Data 28 (NCVER 21), drew on two major sources of information about the VET workforce. The first uses ABS Census of Population and Housing and the Survey of Education and Training undertaken in 25, while the second was a point in time survey of TAFE providers Teacher Supply and Demand

13 This study identified three types of staff in VET: VET practitioner, engaged in the development, delivery and assessment of courses; VET professional, which include practitioners and staff who provide leadership, management and support for course delivery; and other staff engaged in generic transferable roles including administration, finance and maintenance. Other key findings of the NCVER include: The VET workforce has a greater proportion of part-time, casual and older workers compared with the general labour force. Growth in demand for VET course delivery is expected to continue both in TAFE and private providers, especially in areas of skill shortages in the broader labour market. For Victoria, the estimated number of VET practitioners in 28 was 11,39, which comprised 68% of the Victorian VET workforce. For the whole VET workforce, the proportion of females was 57.3%. The median age for Victorian VET workforce was 47 years, and the proportion of workforce over 5 was 41%, which are both higher than ECEC and school teachers. There is a high proportion of casual and part time employment in this sector. The recent Productivity Commission study into the VET workforce 3 made the following findings: The VET workforce comprises about 73 TAFE employees and an estimated 15, who work for other VET providers. It includes trainers and assessors, other professionals and general staff. It has a greater proportion of part-time, casual and older workers, compared with the general labour force. There are nearly 5 RTOs ranging from large, broad-based TAFE institutes to private sector and enterprise-based RTOs of varying size and scope. VET trainers and assessors are required to be dual professionals, having both industry currency and educational capabilities. At an aggregate level, the current VET workforce numbers, profile and capability meet many of the existing demands on the VET sector. Some clear deficiencies should be addressed. The VET sector requires: more trainers and assessors with industry skills in demand; greater attention to meeting changing contemporary skills needs; and a wider base of the VET workforce that has at least basic educational capabilities. Estimates suggest that up to one-third of trainers and assessors in the non-tafe sector are engaged as casuals or fixed-term employees. This proportion is even higher in the TAFE sector, where about 6 per cent of trainers and assessors were employed on a non-permanent basis in 28, with a particularly high use of casuals in the roles of trainers and assessors (and with significant variation across jurisdictions). Casualisation of the VET workforce is partly a response to the sector s emphasis on industry currency and close association with industry more generally. Flexible forms of employment also enhance the ability of the VET sector to respond quickly and adequately to new or varying skills requirements, over time and in different regions. Better data particularly covering the private VET sector are urgently required to inform policy strategies and assist with workforce planning. National Data and Other Education Sectors 13

14 3. School Workforce in Victoria Main Points: There was continued growth in teacher numbers in Victoria, particularly in independent schools. Teaching continues to be a highly feminised profession in Victoria. The proportion of younger teachers (under 35) in government schools is growing. The Catholic school teaching workforce is ageing at a greater rate than the government and independent sectors. This chapter provides a picture of the school workforce in Victoria. It describes its size and composition, provides a comparison over time and across government and non-government sectors. At August 21 there were 14,514 persons employed in Victorian schools. Teachers (72,521 FTE) comprised 69.4% of all staff in Victorian schools; this was slightly higher than for the whole of Australia where overall, two thirds of school staff were teachers. The proportion of teachers was slightly higher than average in Catholic schools (71.5%) and lower in independent schools (65.5%). Table 3.1: In school staff headcount by staff type, by sex and sector, Victoria, 21 Function Sex Government Catholic Independent All sectors Teaching staff Male 12,39 4,343 4,66 21,393 Female 3,9 11,54 8,724 51,128 All 43,29 15,847 13,384 72,521 Specialist Male support staff Female ,466 All ,896 Other Male 2,98 1,178 2,83 5,359 Female 15,68 4,88 4,322 24,738 All 17,76 5,986 6,45 3,97 Total Male 14,677 5,65 6,9 27,182 Female 47,249 16,556 13,527 77,332 All 61,926 22,161 2,427 14,514 Source: NSSC Table 5a In-school staff count by States and Territories, Affiliation, Sex, Function and Years (1996 to 21), Cat no Schools, Australia 21, ABS Historical Trend in School Staff Numbers In Victoria the number of school staff across all sectors has grown since 21. In school staff includes teaching staff (including school leaders), specialist support staff, administrative and clerical staff as well as building operations, general maintenance and other staff. Across the same time period school enrolments have increased (see Chapter 5) Teacher Supply and Demand

15 Figure 3.1: In-school staff headcount, by sector, Victoria, , 1, Independent Catholic Government 8, 6, 4, 2, Source: NSSC Table 5a In-school staff count by States and Territories, Affiliation, Sex, Function and Years (1996 to 21), Cat no Schools, Australia 21, ABS Teaching Workforce In August 21, there was 72,521 teaching staff in Victorian schools. This was equivalent to 63,519.1 full time equivalent (FTE) teachers. The number of primary teachers was 29,927.4 FTE and secondary 33,591.7 FTE. Table 3.2: Numbers of full-time equivalent teachers, by sector and level, Victoria, 21 School level Government Catholic Independent Total Primary 2,4.8 6, , ,927.4 Secondary 19,15.6 6, , ,591.7 All 39, ,28. 11, ,519.1 Source: NSSC Table 51a In-school staff (FTE) by States and Territories, Affiliation, Sex, School Level, Function and Years (1996 to 21), Cat no Schools, Australia 21, ABS Historical Trend for Teacher Numbers Across all sectors, primary teacher numbers have increased by 1.8% since 21, with the number of secondary teachers increasing by 17.2% over the same period. Figure 3.2: Numbers of teachers by sector and level, Victoria, Independent 15 Catholic 1 Government Primary Secondary Source: NSSC Table 51a In-school staff count by States and Territories, Affiliation, Sex, Function and Years (1996 to 21), Cat no Schools, Australia 21, ABS School Workforce in Victoria 15

16 The distribution of teachers across government and non-government sectors has changed over time. The proportion of teachers in Victoria in government schools decreased from 65% in 21 to 62% in 21; for Catholic schools the proportion has remained steady at around 2%; while for independent schools the proportion has increased from 15% to 18%. Gender Females form the majority of the teaching workforce. The percentage of teachers in Victoria who were female was 7.5% which is very similar to the Australian teaching workforce, 71.3%. By sector, the proportion of Catholic teaching staff that was female was 72.6%, government sector was 71.5% and the independent sector was 65.2%. Over time, from 21, the proportion has been stable in government schools, and increasing slowly in both non-government sectors. Figure 3.3: Proportions of female teachers, by sector, Victoria, Cath Gov Ind Source: NSSC Table 51a In-school staff count by States and Territories, Affiliation, Sex, Function and Years (1996 to 21), Cat no Schools, Australia 21, ABS Age The proportion of teachers over 5 in government schools has increased from 26.6% in 21 to a high of 38.7% in 29; then decreased slightly to 37.4% in 211 (this group has plateaued), while the proportion of younger teachers (under 35) has grown from 2.4% in 21 to 32.5% in 211. Figure 3.4: Proportions of teachers and principals in government schools, by age, Victoria, over 5 35 to 5 under Source: DEECD June 211 Data Collection Teacher Supply and Demand

17 The proportion of teachers in Catholic schools over 5 has increased from 2.2% in 21 to 4.3% in 211. The proportion of younger teachers, under 35, has decreased from 31.1% in 21 to 21.3% in 211. Figure 3.5: Proportion of teachers in catholic schools by age group, Victoria, over 5 35 to 5 under Source: Catholic Education Commission of Victoria February Census 211 Data Collection School Workforce in Victoria 17

18 4. Supply Main Points: Interest in undertaking undergraduate and graduate teacher training courses is strong. Acceptances of course offers for teacher training courses were at an 11 year high in 211. Final year enrolments in Victorian initial teaching courses are increasing and were at a ten year high in 211. In 21 nearly 8% of graduate initial teaching course graduates were employed as teachers, compared with 68% of undergraduate course graduates. Generally, graduate teachers were employed near where they trained. Qualified teachers become available to work in schools through a number of pathways. This chapter discusses these avenues and the numbers of teachers supplied by each. The conventional source is through school leavers entering an undergraduate teacher education course to train as a teacher, or alternatively to enter an undergraduate course and then undertake a post graduate teacher education course. Figure 7 attempts to depict the sources of qualified teachers, called the teacher supply pipeline. Figure 4.1: Teacher supply pipeline School Education Pre service Training Teaching Service Undergraduate Teacher Training VIT Non Govt School Under graduate Degree Teaching Qual ification Govt Resign/ Retire Others with degrees or trade certificates Trained Teachers Interstate or Overseas Trained teachers The supply pipeline of the teaching workforce broadly follows the stages shown in the diagram above. The quantum at each stage is: In 21 there were approximately 5, school leavers who had completed Year 12 in Victoria. 4 Persons enrolling in the first year of undergraduate teacher training in Victoria in 21 was 3,31 (4,272 in 211) Teacher Supply and Demand

19 Persons enrolling in graduate teacher training in Victoria in 21 was 3,351 (1,67 in 211). a Final year enrolments in Victorian initial teaching courses totalled 5,223 in 21, (undergraduate course enrolments were 2,338 with 2,885 in graduate courses) and 5,662 in 211 (undergraduate enrolments were 2,497 with 3,165 enrolled in graduate courses). 6 Persons registered with VIT was 115,848 in June 211, and of these 114,928 had registration allowing them to teach. This total included 6,131 new registrants. 6 The number of teachers employed in Victorian schools was 72,521 in 21 (43,29 in government schools, 15,847 in Catholic schools and 13,384 in independent schools). 7 The attrition rate in government schools in 21 was 5.4%. 8 Information about attrition is not available from the Victorian non-government sector however if the same attrition rate is applied to all teachers, the estimated number of teachers leaving was 3,916 in 21.* *Note: This is an overestimate as this does not account for teachers moving to non-government schools; Attrition: ongoing teaching service staff who ceases from the payroll and who are not re-employed as ongoing. Staff on fixed term arrangements are excluded. A further examination of each of these stages of teacher supply at national and Victorian levels is presented below. Data on the supply of teacher graduates at a national level is provided by information about higher education enrolments and completions from Department of Education, Employment and Workplace Relations (DEEWR s) annual statistics collection. Completion of Initial Teaching Qualifications Australia The number of graduates of initial teaching qualifications nationally has grown from 13,17 in 21 to 17,392 in 21. Figure 4.2: Persons completing initial teacher training qualifications, Australia, , 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Source: DEEWR Higher Education statistics, Award course completions 21: selected higher education statistics tables, The Victorian component was 3,592 (2.7%) (excluding Charles Sturt University reported in NSW; and Australian Catholic University reported separately). The largest provider in Victoria in 21 was Monash University with 888 graduates. a Victorian Institute of Teaching data collection 211: note change in reporting for 211, one year graduate course enrolments counted in final year only, not first year as in previous year s reports. Supply 19

20 Table 4.1: Course completions, by state, higher education provider for initial teacher training, 21 State/Provider Number % All New South Wales Charles Sturt University 1, NSW Total 5, Victoria Deakin University La Trobe University Monash University RMIT University The University of Melbourne University of Ballarat Victoria University Other 16.1 Vic Total 3, Queensland 2, Western Australia 1, South Australia 1, Tasmania Northern Territory Australian Capital Territory Multi-State 1, (Australian Catholic University) Australia 17,392 Source: Table 2, DEEWR Higher Education statistics, Award course completions 21: selected higher education statistics tables, Participation in Initial Teaching Programs in Victoria The Victorian Institute of Teaching provides a Victorian picture of the annual supply of graduates of initial teaching training qualifications. Pre-service teacher education courses are conducted at both the undergraduate and graduate level. Applications Applications for pre-service teaching courses in Victoria totalled 1,75 in 21 11, up from a low of nine. Figure 4.3: Applications for pre-service teaching courses, Victoria, 2 1 to , 12, Graduate Undergraduate 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, /1 1/2 2/2 3/4 4/5 5/6 6/7 7/8 8/9 9/1 1/11 Source: Victorian Institute of Teaching Data Collection 211 The number of applicants for both undergraduate and graduate courses in 21/11 was lower than in 29/1 but higher than Teacher Supply and Demand

21 Offers Over 8,1 offers were made for pre-service teaching courses in Victoria in The number of offers have increased since The number of undergraduate enrolments has increased over the same period. Undergraduates formed 58.4% of all offers in Offers were made to 76% of applicants in Figure 4.4: Offers for pre-service teaching courses, Victoria, 2-1 to , 8, 7, Graduate Undergraduate 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, /1 1/2 2/2 3/4 4/5 5/6 6/7 7/8 8/9 9/1 1/11 Source: Victorian Institute of Teaching Data Collection 211 Acceptances Acceptances have grown to an eleven year high in (5,629). Undergraduate acceptances have grown both as a number and as a proportion of all acceptances since 2 1. Sixty-nine per cent of offers were accepted in Figure 4.5: Acceptances for Pre-service Teaching Courses, Victoria, 2 1 to , 5, Graduate Undergraduate 4, 3, 2, 1, 99/ /1 1/2 2/3 3/4 4/5 5/6 6/7 7/8 8/9 9/1 1/11 Source: Victorian Institute of Teaching Data Collection 211 ATAR of Undergraduate Teaching Course Accepters The proportion of students undertaking pre-service teaching courses at undergraduate level in Victoria was 52.7% in Some universities use applicants Australian Tertiary Admission Rank (ATAR) (previously called ENTER) score derived from their Victorian Certificate of Education (VCE) results for course selection and making offers for an undergraduate place. This applies only to some undergraduate courses and is used by universities in combination with other criteria to select from the applicant pool. In 211, 63.5% of undergraduate courses used ATAR scores during their course selection, while the remainder used other criteria. This implies that the use of ATAR scores as an indicator of Supply 21

22 intake quality applies to a minority of teacher education students. Although considered an indicator, care should be taken in interpreting any trended changes in the ATAR scores of student teachers as it is unclear how it might predict university performance or influence graduate teacher quality once working as a teacher. The average clearly in ATAR has declined marginally from 21 by 1.36 points, to below 7 in 211. The average ENTER score was above 7 until 26. Figure 4.6: Clearly In ENTER/ATAR for Victorian undergraduate teaching courses, Source: Victorian Institute of Teaching from Victorian Tertiary Admission Centre published information Enrolments First Year Enrolments in Pre-service Teaching Courses It appears there is a decrease in first year graduate course enrolments in 211, however this is a result of changes in data reporting implemented by the VIT for the first time in 211. In the past enrolments in one year courses such as Diploma of Education had been counted as both first and final year enrolments. From 211 students undertaking one year courses are counted as final year course enrolments only. In addition post graduate courses which have a duration longer than one year are also included; however they are either reflected in the first year enrolment figures or in the final year enrolment figures depending on where they are in their program cycle. Consequently the 211 results for first and final year enrolments does not form a tidy comparison in the time series with previous years. The data indicates that in 211 there was a decrease in graduate first year enrolments from 21 of, This is a factor of the reporting changes. Undergraduate first year enrolments continued to grow in 211 to a ten year high of 4,272. Figure 4.7: Persons enrolled in the first year of a teacher training qualification, Victoria, Graduate Undergraduate Source: Victorian Institute of Teaching, Customised Data Set, Teacher Supply and Demand

23 Final Year Enrolments in Pre-service Teaching Courses The change to first year reporting described above now enables the trend in final year enrolments shown below to provide a more accurate indication of final year enrolments, and to gain a more accurate picture of the likely supply of teachers from both course types. Final year enrolments have grown to a ten year high of 5,662 in 211. Graduate enrolments formed 55.9% of all enrolments; this rate has decreased since 22 but has remained around the same proportion since 28. This was due to both graduate (3165) and undergraduate (2497) final year enrolments being at their highest in 1 years. Figure 4.8: Students enrolled in the final year of a teacher training qualification, Victoria, Source: Victorian Institute of Teaching, Customised data set, 211 Final Year Enrolments by Key Learning Area Final year enrolments by key learning area (KLA) only applies to those students studying in a course which prepares them for teaching in the secondary area of schooling. This could include students in courses with dual qualifications (primary and secondary teaching) and those focussed only on secondary teaching. Trends in subject enrolments by final year students are mixed. Science and Studies of Society and the Environment (SOSE) have been the highest from 2 to 211. Science enrolments have ranged from a low of 814 in 28 to a high of 1,75 in 22. In 211 the final year enrolment was 931. For SOSE 21 was the year of peak enrolments with 1, enrolments were 1, was the year of smallest SOSE enrolments with 831.For both the key learning areas of mathematics and languages other than English (LOTE) there has been a slight increase in enrolments from 2, peaking in 29 at 343 for mathematics and at 268 in 25 for LOTE. Figure 4.9: Final Year enrolments for Health and Physical Education, Mathematics, Science and Technology, HPE Maths Science Technology Source: Victorian Institute of Teaching, Customised data set, 211 *HPE Health and Physical Education Supply 23

24 Figure 4.1: Final Year enrolments for The Arts, English, Languages Other Than English and Studies of Society and the Environment, Arts English LOTE SOSE Source: Victorian Institute of Teaching, Customised data set, 211 Further detail about mathematics and science final year enrolments indicated chemistry and physics enrolments were approximately half of biology, psychology and general science, although science numbers had risen overall Teacher Supply and Demand

25 Figure 4.11: Final year enrolments for Mathematics and Science, Mathematics Maths Science Maths-Senior/Additional Biology Chemistry Physics Earth Science Environmental Studies/Science Psychology Senior Science Science - General Source: Victorian Institute of Teaching, Customised data set, 2 Supply 25

26 Special Education Enrolments in the first and final year of pre-service teacher training courses in special education have grown since 25. In 211 there were 212 enrolled in first year and 237 in the final year of their special education course. Figure 4.12: Special education pre-service teacher course first and final year enrolments Source: Victorian Institute of Teaching, Customised data set, 211 Destinations of Graduates from Teaching Courses The destinations of graduates are monitored by the Graduate Careers Council using an annual survey. From 22 to 29 more undergraduate initial teaching course graduates were employed as teachers after graduating than graduate course graduates. In 21 this trend changed. Nearly 8% of graduates from graduate-entry courses were employed as teachers, compared with 68% of graduates from undergraduate courses.* *Note: Care should be taken in interpreting these results due to a low response rate. Figure 4.13: Destinations of graduates of teaching courses, Victoria, 22 1 Undergraduate Teacher Supply and Demand

27 Graduate Source: Graduate Careers Council, Australian Graduate Survey (formerly Graduate Destinations), Victorian customised dataset 211 Graduate Teachers in Government Schools DEECD collects information from government schools about the employment of graduate teachers in an annual survey, usually conducted in August through the departments Supplementary Census. Graduates Employed in Government Schools in 21 In 21 there were 2,411 graduate teachers employed in government schools, comprising 6% of all teachers in government schools. The proportion in primary schools was slightly higher (6.6%) and slightly lower (5.2%) in secondary schools. Over half (54.8%) of graduate teachers employed in 21 were less than 25 years of age, and nearly 1% were over 35 years of age. The majority (73%) of graduates employed were female. Table 4.2: All graduate teachers (headcount) employed in government schools, by school type (no. & %) Primary Secondary Other Total All Teachers (on pay) 18,784 16,242 5,451 4,477 Graduates 1, ,411 % Graduates Note: Other includes Language, Pri-Sec and Special Source: 21 Supplementary School Census and Summary Statistics for Victorian Schools July 21 Figure 4.14: Age and sex of graduate teachers, 21 No. of graduates Female Male Age Supply 27

28 Source: 21 Supplementary School Census Table 4.3: Graduate teachers employed in government schools, by region and school type, 21 Language Primary Pri Sec Sec. Special All % Barwon SW Gippsland Grampians Hume Loddon Mallee All Regional Eastern Metro Northern Metro Southern Metro Western Metro All Metropolitan Total Source: 21 Supplementary School Census Over three out of five (62.1%) government schools employed graduate teachers in 21. Metropolitan schools were more likely to employ graduates (72.7%) than non-metropolitan schools (5.3%). Secondary (83.1%) and primary secondary (8.3%) and language schools (1%) were more likely to employ graduates than primary (56.6%) or special (59.2%) schools. Table 4.4: Government schools employing graduate teachers, by school type, 21 Language Primary Pri-Sec Sec Special All Sch % Sch % Sch % Sch % Sch % Sch % Total Source: 21 Supplementary School Census Graduate Teacher Employment by Region by Teacher Education Provider In general, graduate teachers employed in government schools were often employed near where they trained. The largest teacher training provider of graduates varied between regions. In 21 these were: Region Barwon South West Grampians Loddon Mallee Hume Gippsland Eastern Metropolitan Region Northern Metropolitan Region Southern Metropolitan Region Western Metropolitan Region Largest providers in the region Deakin University Monash University University of Ballarat La Trobe University La Trobe University Deakin University Victoria University Monash University RMIT University Teacher Supply and Demand

29 Figure 4.15: Graduate teachers in government schools, by region and teacher education provider, Number of Graduates Other Victoria University University of Melbourne University of Ballarat RMIT University Monash University La Trobe University Deakin University Charles Sturt University Australian Catholic University 1 BSW GIP GRAMP HUME LM EM NM SM WM Source: 21 Supplementary School Census Graduates Employed in Government Schools in 211 In 211 there were 2,55 graduate teachers employed in government schools, comprising 6.3% of all teachers in government schools. The proportion in primary schools was slightly higher (7.1%) and slightly lower (5.4%) in secondary schools. This was similar to 21. Over half (54.4%) of graduate teachers were less than 25 years old, with 1% over 35 years old. The majority of graduates, over seven out of ten, were employed in metropolitan schools. Table 4.5: All graduate teachers (headcount) employed in government schools (no. & %), by school type, 211 Primary Secondary Other Total All teachers (on pay) 18,851 15,858 5,889 4,598 Graduates 1, ,55 % graduates Note: Other includes Language, Pri-Sec and Special Source: 211 Supplementary School Census and Summary Statistics for Victorian Schools July 211 Table 4.6: Age of graduate teachers, 211 Source: 211 Supplementary School Census Number % Under 25 1, Between 25 and or over Supply 29

30 Table 4.7: Graduate teachers employed in government schools, by region and school type, 211 Language Primary Pri Sec Sec. Special All % Barwon SW Gippsland Grampians Hume Loddon Mallee All Regional Eastern Metro Northern Metro Southern Metro Western Metro All Metro Total Source: 211 Supplementary School Census Most (64.2%) government schools employed graduate teachers in 211. Secondary (87%) and primary secondary (81.7%) and language schools (75%) were more likely to employ graduates than primary (58.6%) or special (57.9%) schools. Table 4.8: Government schools employing graduate teachers, by school type, 211 Language Primary Pri Sec Secondary Special Total Schools with graduates % Source: 211 Supplementary School Census Nearly three quarters (72%) of graduates employed in government schools are employed in metropolitan schools. Deakin University educated nearly 2% of all graduates employed in government schools in 211, followed by La Trobe (16.4%), Monash (15.2%) and University of Melbourne (13.2%). Table 4.9: Teacher education provider, proportion of graduates employed in metropolitan regions, 211 ACU C Sturt Deakin La Tr U Monash RMIT U Ball U Melb Vic U Other U % Metro % All Source: 211 Supplementary School Census Graduate Teacher Employment by Region by Teacher Education Provider As for 21, in 211 it was apparent most graduates are employed in the same region as they received their teacher training. The largest teacher training provider of graduates varied between regions. In 211 these were: Region Barwon South West Grampians Loddon Mallee Hume Gippsland Eastern Metropolitan Region Northern Metropolitan Region Southern Metropolitan Region Western Metropolitan Region Largest provider in the region Deakin University University of Ballarat La Trobe University La Trobe University Monash University Deakin University RMIT University Monash University Victoria University Teacher Supply and Demand

31 Figure 4.16: Graduate teachers in government schools by region and teacher education provider, 211 Source: 211 Supplementary School Census Teachers Newly Employed in Government Schools In 21 there were 2,661.7 FTE new teachers on the base classification; comprising 8.3% of all new employees. The remaining 19.7% were employed at higher classification levels. The number of new teachers on base classification has increased since 28 and has nearly returned to 27 levels, while the proportion has decreased from a high of 83% in 29. This is a different measure from a different source to the Graduate Recruitment survey reported earlier, yet the quantum is very similar. Supply 31

32 Figure 4.17: New employees at base level in government schools, FTE and % of all new employees, , 4, New FTE % New of All 1 8 3, 6 2, 4 1, Source: DEECD Teacher Supply and Demand

33 5. Demand Main Points: The number of student enrolments has increased from 21 to 21. More than 8% of this growth was in secondary schools. Student enrolments are projected to continue to increase. Some demand has shifted away from government schools to the independent sector. Part time employment has increased in schools since 21 and is higher in Catholic than government schools Teacher attrition rates to 215 are expected to be around 5%. In 21 the rate of government teacher s sick and carers leave has decreased moderately. Nearly one quarter of government school teachers were on extended leave in 21 (leave longer than 28 days). The rate of teachers on extended leave greater than the proportion of the workforce on fixed term contracts. More than half of Casual Relief Teachers (CRT s) prefer to work as a CRT. Only about one fifth of the CRT workforce is looking for fixed term or ongoing teaching positions. More than one fifth of CRT s are retired teachers. Difficult-to-fill vacancies have reduced to the lowest level since this information was collected. Difficult-to-fill vacancies are highest in special schools, then secondary schools and lowest in primary schools. The subject areas with the most difficulty to fill remain maths, science, language other than English, special education and technology, however the size of the difficulty has reduced. The major drivers of demand for teachers are the numbers of student enrolments and studentteacher ratios. 1 Other influences are attrition of teachers, leave usage and workforce ageing. This chapter will provide information about the current demand, trends in enrolment and school workforce employment characteristics. In Victoria, at August 21, there were 85, school students enrolled in 2,24 schools across all sectors. There were 461,733 students in primary years (58%) and 389,119 students in secondary years (42%). The majority, 63%, were in government schools. Historical Trends Over the period 21 to 21 the number of students in all Victorian schools had risen by 39,614 FTE. The majority of this growth has been in secondary years (8.8%). The average annual growth has been 4,4 students, ranging from around 3, to 6, annually. The numbers of primary students fell to 21 levels in 26 but have been growing since. The proportion of primary students in government schools in Victoria has dropped by 1.7 percentage points for 21 from 21. The proportion of primary students in Catholic schools has decreased marginally by.3 percentage points over this period, while in independent schools the proportion has risen by 2 percentage points. Demand 33

34 Figure 5.1: Victorian student numbers, primary, secondary and all, , 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, - Primary Secondary All Source: NSSC Table 43a Full-time equivalent students by States and Territories, Affiliation, Sex, Grade, Age, Indigenous Status and years (1996 to 21), Schools, Australia 21, ABS 211 Figure 5.2: Victorian primary students by sector, FTE, , 45, 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Independent Catholic Government Source: NSSC Table 43a Full-time equivalent students by States and Territories, Affiliation, Sex, Grade, Age, Indigenous Status and years (1996 to 21), Schools, Australia 21, ABS 211 The numbers of secondary students have grown strongly from 21 to 21, with a net increase of 32, students. The proportion of secondary students in government schools in Victoria has dropped by 3 percentage points for 21 from 21. The proportion of secondary students in Catholic schools has increased marginally by.8 percentage points over this period, while in independent schools the proportion has risen by 2.2 percentage points Teacher Supply and Demand

35 Figure 5.3: Victorian secondary students, by sector, FTE, , 45, 4, 1's students 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Independent Catholic Government Source: NSSC Table 43a Full-time equivalent students by States and Territories, Affiliation, Sex, Grade, Age, Indigenous Status and years (1996 to 21), Schools, Australia 21, ABS 211 Projected Trends in School Aged Population From the last population census in 26, the number of school aged students has been projected to 22. In 21 when comparing the actual school enrolments with the census projections, the primary aged population estimate was very close (less than 1%), while the secondary student estimate was 5.8% lower than the actual student enrolment. In 22 there is expected to be 66,7 more primary students than there were in 21 and 15, more secondary students. Figure 5.4: Population projections for school aged persons, Victoria, , 54, 52, In 5, 48, first 46, 44, 42, 4, 38, 36, Source: Victoria Future (VIF) 28 release Primary (5-11) Secondary (12-17) 28/victoria-in-future-28-detailed-data-files Projected numbers for primary aged young people across Victoria from 21 to 22 showed annual growth of around 3,5 to 8,7. For secondary aged young people growth is not projected until 216, and then annual increases from 1,538 to 8,427 in 22 are expected. (Note that these projections will be revised on the basis of the information collected through the 211 Census of Population and Housing.) Demand 35

36 Figure 5.5: Primary and secondary aged persons, Victoria, projected annual change, to , 8, Primary (5-11) Secondary (12-17) 6, 4, 2, -2, , Source: Victoria In Future (VIF) 28 first release Student Teacher Ratios For Victoria, the primary student-teacher ratio across all school sectors was 15.4 in 21, and for secondary the ratio was The Catholic sector has higher student teacher ratios than the other sectors, while independent schools have the lowest. Compared to Australia overall, except for government primary schools, all Victorian ratios were below national averages. The result for government primary years could be due to the smaller proportion of small primary schools (under 1 enrolments) in Victoria compared to many other states. Table 5.1: Student teacher ratios, Victoria, all sectors, 21 Sector All levels Primary Secondary All sectors Government Non-government Independent Catholic Source: NSSC Table 53a Students to Teacher Ratios by States and Territories, Affiliation, School Level and Years (1996 to 21), Cat no Schools, Australia 21, ABS Historical Trends in Student Teacher Ratios The period 21 1 saw a small but consistent decrease in student-teacher ratios (STRs). Figure 5.6: Student teacher ratios trends, Victoria, Primary Secondary Primary Secondary Primary Secondary Government Catholic Independent Source: NSSC Table 53a Students to Teacher Ratios by States and Territories, Affiliation, School Level and Years (1996 to 21), Cat no Schools, Australia 21, ABS Teacher Supply and Demand

37 Attrition of Ongoing Teachers in Government Schools During 21, 1,94 teachers ceased from ongoing positions in Victorian government schools. They represented 5.4% of the total government school teaching workforce. This measure excluded those on fixed term arrangements. Projections of attrition rates have been calculated, based on historical rates, superannuation scheme conditions and the projected age of the teaching workforce. Since 2, attrition rates have ranged between 4 6 %; rates for future years until 215 are expected to be around 5%. *Note: This is an overestimate as this does not account for teachers moving to non-government schools; Attrition: ongoing teaching service staff who cease from the payroll and who are not reemployed as ongoing. Staff on fixed term arrangements are excluded. Figure 5.7: Attrition rate of government schools teaching workforce, 2 1 (actual), (projected) 1 Per Cent Projected Source: DEECD, Data, Outcomes and Evaluation Unit, Customised data set, 211 Time Fraction The proportion of the government school teaching workforce which is part time has increased from 17.5% in 21 to 23.% in 211. For Catholic schools the rate is higher, at 3.5% in 211. This trend is related to the preference for some teachers to combine teaching with other activities such as family responsibilities or other employment and pastimes. Figure 5.8: Proportion of school teaching workforce working part time, June quarter, Govt Catholic Source: DEECD, Data, Outcomes and Evaluation Unit, Customised data set, 211 and Catholic Education Commission of Victoria February Census 211 Data Collection Demand 37

38 Government Teaching Workforce Taking Leave Members of the government school teaching workforce are able to take leave for various purposes, both paid and unpaid. There are various perspectives from which leave can be examined. The rate of sick and carer s leave taken over a calendar year, both paid and unpaid, was 8.7 days per teacher in 21. This comprised an average of 5.8 days sick leave with a certificate, two days of sick leave without a certificate and.9 carer s leave. The highest rate over the period 21 1 was in 29 when career s leave rates were increasing. Both kinds of sick leave were highest in 28 but dropped in 29 and 21. Figure 5.9: Rates of sick and carer s leave days per 1 staff, 21 1 days per 1 staff 1 Sick leave with certificate Sick leave without certificate Carer's leave Source: DEECD, Data, Outcomes and Evaluation Unit, Customised data set, 211 At June 21 there were a total of 4,122 equivalent full time teachers on unpaid leave. This is equivalent to 1.2% of the total equivalent full time teaching workforce on pay in June of each year. The total FTE of teachers on unpaid leave, and the proportion they represent of the teaching workforce has risen since 21. Figure 5.1: Teaching workforce on leave without pay, FTE, June 21 1 Source: DEECD Data, Outcomes and Evaluation Unit, Customised data set, 211 Extended Leave Teachers taking leave affects the delivery of teaching and learning within a school. Short term teacher absences are covered in a different way to longer absences. In order to examine the potential impact of longer duration leave on school level workforce planning, the incidence of teachers taking any form of leave consecutively, especially the total duration was examined Teacher Supply and Demand

39 Extended leave was defined as any consecutive leave of 28 days or longer taken by a teacher or school leader in a school. There were a total of 1,113 members of the teaching workforce, comprising 9,642 teachers and 471 school leaders, taking extended leave during 21. This represented 24% of the paid workforce. They took a total of 1.36 million days leave. The average duration was 134 days. Over a third of teachers on extended leave (38%) commenced their leave prior to 21, 14% commenced in January and a further 11% commenced in July. April and October were also popular starting points. The rate of teachers on extended leave is greater than the proportion of the workforce on fixed term contracts, which was 19% in 21 and 211. Figure 5.11: Teachers extended leave by commencement month, % of total, Source: DEECD, Data, Outcomes and Evaluation Unit, Customised data set, 211 In general, the distribution of extended leave over regions and school type follows the distribution of the teaching workforce; however primary teachers have a slightly higher rate of extended leave than teachers in other types of schools. Overall, the rate of extended leave for teachers was 27 % for primary and 22% for secondary teachers. Figure 5.12: Rates of extended leave, by region and school type, Primary/Secondary Primary Secondary Special Other Source: DEECD, Data, Outcomes and Evaluation Unit, Customised data set, 211 Although the average was 134 days, nearly half of the extended leave taken by the teaching workforce was less than 1 days in duration. However over a third was over 2 days, and the remaining fifth was between 1 and 2 days. Demand 39

40 Long service leave is often extended leave (more than 28 days) but not always. Previous Teacher Supply and Demand reports have supplied an FTE count for long service leave. The extended leave is a preferable measure because any longer leave (greater than 28 days) generates other employment modes from casual relief teachers, such as fixed term employment. A total of 211, 858 days long service leave was taken between January and December 21 by teachers and principals. Fixed Term Employment The proportion of teaching staff in government schools employed on fixed term contracts has varied from 15.5% to 19.4% since 21. In 211 the rate was 19.%. The rate is related to the amount of leave taken by teachers which is discussed elsewhere. Figure 5.13: Proportion of government school teaching workforce in fixed term positions, June Quarter Source: DEECD, Data, Outcomes and Evaluation Unit, Customised data set, 211 Casual Relief Teachers In August 211, there were 7,445 casual relief teachers employed in government schools, which is a similar number to those reported historically. The teaching background of teachers employed in government schools as casual relief teachers was collected in DEECD s annual census of casual relief teachers. Three types of teaching background were most common in 211: retired teachers (21.8%), those who had resigned or preferred casual relief work (24.%) and those who were unemployed and looking for work (2.6%). A further 9.9% were on leave from teaching. The proportion of casual relief teachers who prefer these arrangements is at least 55.7%. The responses to the survey indicate that the pool of casual relief teachers forms a potential source of supply for teachers to fill fixed term and ongoing vacancies. The biggest changes over the last five years have been to the other category, which includes agency employed teachers. The proportion has grown by 6.5 percentage points since 27, and the proportion seeking full time work has decreased by 5.5 percentage points. For those teachers who had resigned or preferred casual relief work, the proportion has decreased by 3.5 percentage points. The proportions for other groups have increased marginally, in the range of.5 to 1.5 percentage points. Table 5.2: Teaching background of casual relief teachers employed in government schools, 211, % Type % Other (includes agency employed) 17. P/T teacher from school 6.6 Leave (Family/LWOP) 9.9 Unemployed/seeking employment/out of contract etc. 2.6 Retired Teacher 21.8 Teacher who resigned from permanent teaching/ Prefers CRT work 24. Source: DEECD, Annual Casual Relief Teacher Survey Teacher Supply and Demand

41 Figure 5.14: Teaching background of casual relief teachers employed in government schools, Teacher who resigned from permanent teaching/ Prefers CRT work Unemployed/seeking employment/out of contract etc. Retired Teacher Leave (Family/LWOP) P/T teacher from school Other Source: DEECD, Annual Casual Relief Teacher Survey, 211 Vacancies in Teaching Positions in Government Schools Vacancies in government schools totalled 4,89 FTE positions over 21; this represents 12.5% of the number of teachers in government schools in August 21. For 211 there were 5,5.2 FTE vacancies advertised. Difficult-to-fill Vacancies Difficult-to-fill vacancies totalled 38 FTE in February 21 and were 6.3% of all vacancies for 21. In 211 the number of difficult-to-fill vacancies was FTE, 4.3% of all vacancies in 211. The figures for 211 represented both the lowest number and proportion since this information was first collected in 21. The number of schools reporting difficulties filling vacancies in 21 was 196 or 12.6% and in or 1.6%. This is the smallest proportion reported since information was collected in 21. In 211 primary schools reported the least percentage of difficult-to-fill positions (4.1%), a decrease of 2.3 percentage points since 21. A little over a third, (34.5%) of secondary schools, and a slightly greater proportion (37.%) of special schools, reported difficult-to-fill vacancies. For secondary schools, the proportion is the lowest since information was collected. For special schools, the 211 rate is similar (1.3 percentage points higher) to the previous 1 year average. Demand 41

42 Figure 5.15: Difficult-to-fill vacancies in government schools, FTE, and as % of all vacancies, EFT % % of All vacancies DTF FTE Source: DEECD, Teaching Staffing Difficulty Survey, 211 Figure 5.16: Government schools reporting difficult-to-fill vacancies, %, Primary Pri/Sec Secondary Special Total Source: DEECD, Teaching Staffing Difficulty Survey, 211 Figure 5.17: Difficult-to-fill vacancies in government schools, as % of all vacancies by school type, Primary Pri/Sec Secondary Special Source: DEECD, Teaching Staffing Difficulty Survey, Teacher Supply and Demand

43 As well as schools reporting difficult-to-fill vacancies, the distribution of number of difficult-to-fill vacancies is monitored by school type. Except for vacancies in special schools, the proportions of difficult-to-fill vacancies in all school types is the lowest since records were kept. The rate of difficult-to-fill vacancies in special schools has declined since 28 by 8.4 percentage points in 211. The largest number of difficult-to-fill vacancies in 21 was for mathematics, with 7 FTE positions. This was slightly higher (by 11.6 FTE) than 29, but lower than numbers in For 211, mathematics, with 4 FTE positions was still the most difficult-to-fill key learning area. This number is down by 7.8 FTE since the high in 28. Since highs in difficult-to-fill vacancies in 28, science numbers in 211 were down by 53.4 FTE; technology numbers were down by 83.1 FTE and LOTE numbers were down by 43.2 FTE. Figure 5.18: Difficult-to-fill vacancies in government Schools, FTE by key learning area, English General Classroom LOTE Mathematics Science Technology Source: DEECD, Teaching Staffing Difficulty Survey, 211 Difficult-to-fill vacancies by location Difficult-to-fill vacancies have been analysed by geographical location to determine where the most difficulties are being faced by schools. In addition, the areas that face the most difficulties recruiting mathematics teachers are shown in the Figure 5.2. Demand 43

44 Figure 5.19: LGAs with difficult-to-fill vacancies, Source data is provided in the appendix Figure 5.2: LGAs with difficult-to-fill Vacancies for the maths subject area, Teacher Supply and Demand

45 Difficult-to-fill Casual Relief Teacher Positions The proportion of government schools reporting difficulty finding casual relief teachers declined to 19.7% in 21. Primary schools are less likely to report difficulties than other types of schools. Results for 211 showed 34 schools reporting a total of 618 difficult-to-fill CRT positions. This is the lowest level on record. Figure 5.21: Government schools reporting difficult-to-fill casual relief teacher positions by school type, 26 11, % Primary Pri/Sec Secondary Special Total Source: DEECD, Casual Relief Teacher Survey, 211 Demand 45

46 6. Matching Supply and Demand Main Points: Forecasting supply and demand is a complex process, impacted significantly by a range of internal and external factors. Projections indicate that there will be a small oversupply of primary teachers to 215 of approximately 14 teachers annually. Projections indicate that there will be an oversupply of secondary teachers to 215 of approximately 58 teachers annually. There are many complex and volatile forces, in the internal and external education environment, that make the task of predicting teacher demand and supply a challenging one. A number of external factors have had, or may in the future have some impact on the supply and demand of quality trained teachers in Victoria. These include but are not limited to: industry competition status of teaching aftermath of global financial crisis impact of Commonwealth government initiatives and changes in government policies changes in the higher education sector; and/or net migration into Victoria. The 29 report predicted that graduate teacher numbers were forecast to fall by about 1% over a five year period (29 213) however higher than expected enrolments in 21 mitigated this forecasted fall. Updating the Teacher Supply and Demand report each year allows for the review and inclusion of changes as a result of these factors and the adjustment of any supply and demand surplus or shortfall predictions. Projections For primary teachers the projections of supply of new graduates of pre-service courses, both graduate and undergraduate, for 211 to 215 average 2,32 annually. The projection of increased demand for new primary teachers over this period averages 2,18 each year. This is projected to result in a small average oversupply of 14 annually. Figure 6.1: Projected number of required primary teachers, new graduates available and the projected residual supply, all Victorian schools, Demand Supply 2,5 2, Surplus Supply { { { { 1,5 1, Source: Victorian Institute of Teaching Estimates of numbers of future graduating students; and DEECD customised data Teacher Supply and Demand

47 For secondary teachers the projections of supply of new graduates of pre-service courses, both graduate and undergraduate, for average 2,9 annually. The projection of increased demand for new secondary teachers over this period averages 1,51 each year. This is projected to result in an average oversupply of 58 annually. Figure 6.2: Projected number of required secondary teachers, new graduates available and the projected residual supply, all Victorian schools, Demand Supply 2,5 2, 1,5 Surplus Supply { { { { { 1, Source: Victorian Institute of Teaching, Estimates of numbers of future graduating students; and DEECD customised data 211 Matching supply and demand 47

48 Appendix 1: Teacher Supply and Demand Reference Group Purpose The Teacher Supply and Demand Reference Group has, since 2, provided a forum for discussion and exchange of information on teacher supply and demand issues in Victoria and provided advice to the Department about teacher supply and demand in Victorian government schools. Major outputs The Reference Group meets four times a year. Since 24, the Department has published a regular Teacher Supply and Demand Report which provides a comprehensive cross-sectoral picture of the Victorian teacher workforce. Terms of reference The Reference Group undertakes: to make recommendations to the Secretary on teacher supply and demand issues; to exchange and coordinate the collection of accurate information and data relating to teacher supply and demand across Victorian schools and early childhood services; to publish an annual report on teacher supply and demand issues across Victorian schools and early childhood services; to provide a forum for structured and informed discussion on issues related to the supply and demand of teachers across Victorian schools and early childhood services; and to provide advice on appropriate research projects to assist in the long term planning of teacher supply and demand needs across Victorian schools and early childhood services. Membership Acting Chair Assistant General Manager, Workforce Planning, Development and Safety, Human Resources Division The group has a membership of approximately 15 people from the following organisations. DEECD: Research and Workforce Planning Unit Office for Resources and Infrastructure School Workforce Reform Branch Office for Government School Education Early Childhood Strategy Division Office for Children and Portfolio Coordination Other: Catholic Education Commission of Victoria Independent Schools, Victoria Victorian Institute of Teaching Victorian Principals Association Victorian Association of State Secondary Principals Australian Education Union Victorian Independent Education Union Victorian Deans of Education Kindergarten Parents Victoria Teacher Supply and Demand

49 Appendix 2: Data Tables Figure 2.1: Teachers in schools, FTE, primary and secondary, Victoria and Australia, 21 (Ref p1) Primary Secondary Total % Primary Vic 29, , , Australia 127, , , % Vic Source: NSSC Table 51a In-school staff (FTE), Schools, Australia 21 Table 3.1: In School staff headcount by staff type, sex and sector, Victoria 21 (Ref p14) Function Sex Government Catholic Independent All sectors Teaching staff Specialist support staff Other Total Male 12,39 4,343 4,66 21,393 Female 3,9 11,54 8,724 51,128 All 43,29 15,847 13,384 72,521 Male Female ,466 All ,896 Male 2,98 1,178 2,83 5,359 Female 15,68 4,88 4,322 24,738 All 17,76 5,986 6,45 3,97 Male 14,677 5,65 6,9 27,182 Female 47,249 16,556 13,527 77,332 All 61,926 22,161 2,427 14,514 Source: NSSC Table 5a In-school staff count by States and Territories, Affiliation, Sex, Function and Years (1996 to 21), Cat no Schools, Australia 21, ABS Figure 3.1: Numbers of in-school staff by sector, Victoria 21 1 (Ref p15) Government Catholic Independent All sectors 21 53,439 17,254 13,974 84, ,631 17,877 14,672 87, ,563 18,66 15,697 89, ,1 18,896 16,725 91, ,519 19,448 17,298 93, ,87 19,869 18,277 95, ,955 2,976 18,996 98, ,743 21,386 19,614 1, ,38 21,763 2,111 13, ,926 22,161 2,427 14,514 Source: NSSC Table 5a In-school staff count by States and Territories, Affiliation, Sex, Function and Years (1996 to 21), Cat no Schools, Australia 21, ABS Table 3.2: Numbers of full-time equivalent teacher, by sector and level, Victoria, 21 (Ref p15) School level Government Catholic Independent Total Primary 2,4.8 6, , ,927.4 Secondary 19,15.6 6, , ,591.7 All 39, ,28. 11, ,519.1 Source: NSSC Table 51a In-school staff (FTE) by States and Territories, Affiliation, Sex, School Level, Function and Years (1996 to 21), Cat no Schools, Australia 21, ABS Appendix 2: Data Tables 49

50 Figure 3.2: Numbers of teachers by sector and level, Victoria, 21 1 (Ref p15) Government Catholic Independent All sectors 21 39,472 13,74 9,497 62, ,136 13,383 9,91 63, ,836 13,597 1,43 64, ,48 13,77 11,162 65, ,383 14,2 11,476 66, ,83 14,493 12,121 68, ,481 15,215 12,646 7, ,821 15,472 12,92 71, ,54 15,651 13,217 71, ,29 15,847 13,384 72,521 Source: NSSC Table 51a In-school staff count by States and Territories, Affiliation, Sex, Function and Years (1996 to 21), Cat no Schools, Australia 21, ABS Figure 3.3: Proportions of female teachers, by sector, Victoria, 21 1 (Ref p16) Government Catholic Independent Source: NSSC Table 51a In-school staff count by States and Territories, Affiliation, Sex, Function and Years (1996 to 21), Cat no Schools, Australia 21, ABS Figure 3.4: Proportions of teachers and principals in government schools, by age, Victoria, (Ref p16) Under Over Source: DEECD Figure 3.5: Proportion of teachers in Catholic schools by age group, Victoria, (Ref p17) Under to Over Source: CECV Figure 4.2: Persons completing initial teacher training qualifications, Australia, 21 1 (Ref p19) No. 13,17 14,423 15,596 16,25 16,374 17,2 16,973 16,526 17,146 17, Teacher Supply and Demand

51 Source: DEEWR Higher Education statistics, Award course completions 21: selected higher education statistics tables, Table 4.1: Course completions by state, higher education provider for initial teacher training, 21 (Ref p2) State/Provider Number % All New South Wales Charles Sturt University 1, NSW Total 5, Victoria Deakin University La Trobe University Monash University RMIT University The University of Melbourne University of Ballarat Victoria University Other 16.1 Vic Total 3, Queensland 2, Western Australia 1, South Australia 1, Tasmania Northern Territory Australian Capital Territory Multi-State 1, (Australian Catholic University) Australia 17,392 Source: Table 2, DEEWR Higher Education statistics, Award course completions 21: selected higher education statistics tables, Figure 4.3: Applications for pre-service teaching courses, Victoria, 2 1 to (Ref p2) Source: VIT Undergraduate Postgraduate All 2 1 4,972 3,442 8, ,617 4,644 1, ,122 5,465 11, ,42 5,729 12, ,331 4,859 11, ,89 4,26 1, ,122 4,45 1, ,653 3,437 9, ,778 3,622 9, ,514 4,763 11, ,283 4,468 1,751 Appendix 2: Data Tables 51

52 Figure 4.4: Offers for pre-service teaching courses, Victoria, 2 1 to (Ref p21) Source: VIT Undergraduate Postgraduate All 2 1 2,41 2,585 4, ,28 2,93 5, ,318 2,94 5, ,51 3,2 5, ,483 3,529 7, ,398 3,358 6, ,75 3,385 7, ,445 2,89 6, ,856 2,832 6, ,279 3,597 7, ,772 3,397 8,169 Figure 4.5: Acceptances for pre-service teaching courses, Victoria, to (Ref p21) Source: VIT Undergraduate Postgraduate All ,81 1,9 2, ,747 1,795 3, ,43 2,98 3, ,688 1,852 3, ,816 1,976 3, ,541 2,26 4, ,453 2,228 4, ,613 2,289 4, ,362 1,872 4, ,66 1,863 4, ,915 2,273 5, ,52 2,127 5,629 Figure 4.6: Clearly In ENTER/ATAR for Victorian undergraduate teaching courses, (Ref p22) Average Source: VIT Figure 4.7: Persons enrolled in the first year of a teacher training qualification, in Victoria, (Ref p22) Undergraduate 2, ,5 2,234 2,589 2,62 2,885 2,665 3,7 3,31 4,272 Graduate 2,424 2,739 2,33 2,77 2,88 2,619 2,688 2,293 2,748 3, Total 4,586 4,718 4,353 4,941 5,469 5,221 5,573 4,958 5,818 6,653 5,339 Source: VIT Note change of counting of one year graduate courses from 211, only as final, not included in first year Teacher Supply and Demand

53 Figure 4.8: Students enrolled in the final year of a teacher training qualification, Victoria, (Ref p23) Undergraduate 1,537 1,679 1,72 1,781 1, Graduate 2,39 2,343 2,67 2,692 2, Total 3,846 4,12 3,841 4,565 4,539 4,619 4,33 4,59 5,223 5,662 % Graduate Source: VIT Figure 4.9 and 4.1: Enrolments in final year of initial teacher training course, by key learning area, 2 11 (Ref p23-24) HPE Maths Science Technology Arts English LOTE SOSE Other Total 3,556 3,596 4,78 4,496 4,783 5,234 5,29 4,9 4,246 4,68 4,864 4,555 Source: VIT Figure 4.11: Final Year enrolments Mathematics and Science, (Ref p25) Mathematics Maths- Senior/Additional Biology Chemistry Physics Earth Science Environmental Studies/Science Psychology Senior Science Science General Source: VIT Figure 4.12: Special education pre-service teacher course first and final year enrolments (Ref p26) First Final Source: VIT Appendix 2: Data Tables 53

54 Figure 4.13: Destinations of graduates of teaching courses, Victoria, %, 22 1 (Ref p26-27) Undergraduate Secondary Teacher Primary Teacher Special Education Teachers Other education Other employment Graduate Secondary Teacher Primary Teacher Special Education Teachers Other education Other employment All teaching Undergraduate Graduate Source: Graduate Careers Council Table 4.2: All and graduate teachers employed in government schools, number and % by school type, 21 (Ref p27) Primary Secondary Other Total All Teachers (on pay) 18,784 16,242 5,451 4,477 Graduates 1, ,411 % Graduates Note: Other includes Language, Pri-Sec and Special Source: 21 Supplementary School Census and Summary Statistics for Victorian Schools July 211 Figure 4.14: Age and sex of graduate teachers, 21 (Ref p27) Females Males 2 24 years years years years years 35 2 Total Source: 21 Supplementary School Census and Summary Statistics for Victorian Schools July Teacher Supply and Demand

55 Table 4.3: Graduate teachers employed in government schools, by region and school type, 21 (Ref p28) Language Primary Pri-Sec Secondary Special All % Barwon SW Gippsland Grampians Hume Loddon Mallee All Regional Eastern Metro Northern Metro Southern Metro Western Metro All Metropolitan Total Source: 21 Supplementary School Census Table 4.4: Government schools employing graduate teachers by school type, 21 (Ref p28) Language Primary Pri-Sec Secondary Special All Sch % Sch % Sch % Sch % Sch % Sch % Total Source: 21 Supplementary School Census Figure 4.15: Graduate teachers in government schools, by region and teacher education provider, 21 (Ref p29) ACU CSU DU LTU MonU RMIT UB UM VU Other All Barwon SW Grampians Loddon Mallee Hume Gippsland Eastern Metro Western Metro Southern Metro Northern Metro Total Source: 21 Supplementary School Census Table 4.5: All and graduate teachers employed in government schools, number and %, by school type, 211 (Ref p29) Primary Secondary Other Total All Teachers (on pay) 18,851 15,858 5,889 4,598 Graduates 1, ,55 % Graduates Note: Other includes Language, Pri-Sec and Special Source: 211 Supplementary School Census and Summary Statistics for Victorian Schools July 211 Table 4.6: Age of graduate teachers in 211 (Ref p29) % No. Under Between 25 and or over Appendix 2: Data Tables 55

56 Source: 211 Supplementary School Census Table 4.7: Graduate teachers employed in government schools, by region and school type, 211 (Ref p3) Language Primary Pri-Sec Secondary Special All % Barwon S W Grampians Loddon Mallee Hume Gippsland All Regional Eastern M Western M Southern M Northern M All Metropolitan Total Source: 211 Supplementary School Census Table 4.8: Government schools employing graduate teachers by school type, 211 (Ref p3) Language Primary Pri/Sec Secondary Special Total Schools with Graduates % Source: 211 Supplementary School Census Table 4.9: Teacher education provider, proportion of graduates employed in metropolitan regions, 211 (Ref p3) ACU C Sturt Deakin La Tr U Monash RMIT U U Ball U Melb Vic U Other % Metro % All Source: 211 Supplementary School Census Figure 4.16: graduate teachers in government schools, by region and teacher education provider, 211 (Ref p31) ACU CSU DU LTU MonU RMIT UB UM VU Other All Barwon SW Grampians Loddon Mallee Hume Gippsland Eastern Metro Western Metro Southern Metro Northern Metro Total Source: 211 Supplementary School Census Teacher Supply and Demand

57 Figure 4.17: New employees at base level in government schools, FTE and %, of all new employees, 21 1 (Ref p32) Source: DEECD New FTE % New of All , , , , , , , , , , , , , Figure 5.1: Victorian student numbers, primary, secondary and all (FTE), 21 1 (Ref p34) Primary 454, ,52 455, , , , , , , ,733 Secondary 357, ,581 65, ,49 372, , , , ,15 389,119 All 811, , ,16 824, , , , ,95 845,935 85,852 Source: NSSC Table 43a Full-time equivalent students by States and Territories, Affiliation, Sex, Grade, Age, Indigenous Status and years (1996 to 21), Schools, Australia 21, ABS 211 Figure 5.2 and 5.3 Victorian primary and secondary students, by sector, FTE, 21 1 (Ref p34-35) Government Primary 315,6 317,56 316, , , , ,66 311,23 312, ,597 Secondary 218, ,148 22,45 221,64 223,28 224, , , , ,63 Catholic Primary 11,82 11,451 99,797 99,31 98,555 98,759 98,71 99,417 1,493 11,913 Secondary 78,279 79,22 8,29 81,23 82,385 83,91 85,111 86,382 87,474 88,64 Independent Primary 37,247 38,544 39,398 4,393 41,333 42,385 43,464 44,98 45,929 47,223 Secondary 59,998 62,231 64,69 65,863 67,311 68,928 7,972 72,754 73,354 73,849 All schools Primary 454, ,52 455, , , , , , , ,733 Secondary 357, , , ,49 372, , , , ,15 389,119 Source: NSSC Table 43a Full-time equivalent students by States and Territories, Affiliation, Sex, Grade, Age, Indigenous Status and years (1996 to 21), Schools, Australia 21, ABS 211 Appendix 2: Data Tables 57

58 Figure 5.4: Population projections for school aged persons, Victoria, 26 2 (Ref p35) Primary (5 11) 454, , ,27 455, , , , ,515 Sec (12 17) 41, , , , ,51 412,42 411,51 41, Primary (5-11) 483, ,856 5,89 58, , , ,159 Sec. (12-17) 49,54 49,395 41, ,27 415, , ,211 Source: Victoria In Future (VIF) 28 first release Figure 5.5: Primary and secondary aged persons Victoria, projected annual change to (Ref p36) Primary (5-11) 3,529 4,25 8,297 8,61 8,73 8,233 8,258 6,831 6,588 3,394 Secondary (12-17) , ,538 1,337 3,244 4,269 8,427 Source: Victoria In Future (VIF) 28 first release Table 5.1: Student teacher ratios, Victoria, all sectors, 21 (Ref p36) Sector All Levels Primary Secondary All Sectors Government Non-government Independent Catholic Source: NSSC Table 53a Students to Teacher Ratios by States and Territories, Affiliation, School Level and Years (1996 to 21), Cat no Schools, Australia 21, ABS Figure 5.6: Student teacher ratios trends, Victoria 21 1 (Ref p36) Government Non-government Catholic Independent Primary Secondary Primary Secondary Primary Secondary Primary Secondary Source: NSSC Table 53a Students to Teacher Ratios by States and Territories, Affiliation, School Level and Years (1996 to 21), Cat no Schools, Australia 21, ABS Teacher Supply and Demand

59 Figure 5.7: Attrition rate of government schools teaching workforce, 2 1 (actual), (projected) (Ref p37) Source: DEECD Figure 5.8: Proportion of school teaching workforce working part time, government and Catholic, (Ref p37) Govt Catholic Source: DEECD and CECV Figure 5.9: Rates of sick and carer s leave days per 1 staff, 21 1 (Ref p38) Sick leave with 5,411 5,473 5,558 5,598 5,596 5,689 6,8 6,4 6,52 5,759 certificate Sick leave without 2,237 2,283 2,34 2,34 2,269 2,274 2,316 2,325 2,33 2,9 certificate Carer's leave Source: DEECD Figure 5.1: Teaching Workforce on leave without pay, FTE, June 21 1 (Ref p38) Source: DEECD Family leave Leave without pay 21 1, , ,55.1 1, , , , , , , ,95.1 1, ,31.6 1, , , ,33.9 1, , ,662.4 Appendix 2: Data Tables 59

60 Figure 5.11: Teachers extended leave by commencement month, % of total, 21 (Ref p39) Source: DEECD Number % Teachers on extended leave Prior to January February March April May June July August September October November Total 1, Figure 5.12: Rates of extended leave, by region and school type, 21 (Ref p39) Pri/Sec Primary Secondary Special Other Total BSW Grmp LM Hume Gip EM WM SM NM Total Source: DEECD Figure 5.13: Proportion of government school teaching workforce on fixed term contracts, June quarter, , % (Ref p4) % Fixed term Source: DEECD Table 5.2: Teaching background of casual relief teachers employed in government schools, 211, % (Ref p4) Other (includes agency employed) 17. P/T teacher from school 6.6 Leave (Family/LWOP) 9.9 Unemployed/seeking employment/out of contract etc. 2.6 Retired Teacher 21.8 Teacher who resigned from permanent teaching/ Prefers CRT work 24. Source: DEECD CRT Survey % Teacher Supply and Demand

61 Figure 5.14: Teaching background of casual relief teachers employed in government schools, (Ref p41) Other P/T teacher from school Leave (Family/LWOP) Unemployed/seeking employment/out of contract etc Retired teacher Teacher who resigned from permanent teaching/ Prefers CRT work Source: DEECD CRT Survey Figure 5.15: Difficult-to-fill vacancies in government schools, FTE, and as % of all vacancies, (Ref p42) % of All vacancies DTF FTE Source: Teaching Staffing Difficulty Survey, DEECD Figure 5.16: Government schools reporting difficult-to-fill vacancies, 25 11, % (Ref p42) Primary Pri/Sec Secondary Special Total Source: Teaching Staffing Difficulty Survey, DEECD Figure 5.17: Difficult-to-fill vacancies in government schools, as % of all vacancies by school type, (Ref p42) Primary Pri/Sec Secondary Special Source: Teaching Staffing Difficulty Survey, DEECD Figure 5.18: Difficult-to-fill vacancies in government schools, FTE, by key learning area, (Ref p43) English General Classroom LOTE Mathematics Science Technology Source: Teaching Staffing Difficulty Survey, DEECD Appendix 2: Data Tables 61

62 Figure 5.19: LGAs with difficult-to-fill vacancies, (Ref p44) LGA DFVs per 1 FTE teachers Category West Wimmera 4.65 High Horsham 3.71 High Hindmarsh 3.68 High Mildura 2.82 High Glenelg 2.67 High Buloke 2.65 Medium Mitchell 2.34 Medium Wellington 2.24 Medium Moira 2.19 Medium Ararat 2.18 Medium East Gippsland 2.9 Low Corangamite 1.93 Low Alpine 1.89 Low Wodonga 1.87 Low Strathbogie 1.79 Low Source: DEECD, DOE customised data collection Figure 5.2: LGAs with difficult-to-fill vacancies for the maths subject area, (Ref p44) LGA DFVs per 1 Category FTE teachers Glenelg 2.6 High West Wimmera 1.9 High Yarriambiack 1.71 High Benalla 1.7 High Mildura 1.63 High Wodonga 1.44 Medium Moira 1.23 Medium Corangamite 1.15 Medium Cardinia 1.11 Medium Towong 1.1 Medium Wellington.9 Low Mitchell.88 Low Hepburn.85 Low Horsham.79 Low Buloke.79 Low Source: DEECD, DOE customised data collection Teacher Supply and Demand

63 Figure 5.21: Government schools reporting difficult-to-fill casual relief teacher positions by school type, 26 11, % (Ref p45) Source: DEECD CRT Survey Primary Pri/Sec Secondary Special Total Figures 6.1 and 6.2: Projected number of required teachers, new graduates available and the projected residual supply for all Victorian schools (government and non-government), (Ref p46-47) Primary Secondary Total Demand Supply Difference Demand Supply Difference Demand Supply Difference 211 1,9 1,88-2 1,43 1,8 37 3,33 3, ,5 2,2 15 1,48 2,3 55 3,53 4, ,19 2, ,44 2,5 61 3,63 4, ,3 2,36 6 1,5 2, ,8 4, ,17 2, ,61 2, ,78 4,51 73 Average 2,18 2, ,51 2,9 58 3,69 4,41 72 Source: VIT and DEECD Appendix 2: Data Tables 63

64 References Australian Bureau of Statistics, Schools Australia 21, Catalogue no 4221., ABS, 211, National Schools Statistics Collection, Department of Planning and Community Development, Victoria in Future 28 Graduate Careers Council, Australian Graduate Surveys (formerly Graduate Destinations Survey) m Health Workforce Australia 211, National Training Plan Overview, McKenzie, P., Kos, J, Walker, M., Hong, J. Staff in Australia s Schools 27, ACER for DEEWR, January 28 NCVER, The vocational education and training workforce: New roles and ways of working at a glance, NCVER, Vocational Education and Training Workforce data 28: A Compendium, Guthrie, H., (Ed), for DEEWR, June 21 Productivity Commission, Early Childhood Development Workforce, Draft Research Report, Productivity Commission for COAG, June Productivity Commission, Vocational Education and Training Workforce, Research Report, Productivity Commission for COAG, April The Social Research Centre, 21 National Early Childhood Education and Care Workforce Census for DEEWR, June 211 Victorian Institute of Teaching, Annual Report Teacher Supply and Demand

65

66 Endnotes 1 Productivity Commission, Terms of Reference, Education And Training Workforce Study, Issues Paper Nov The Social Research Centre, June National Early Childhood and Care Workforce Census Report, DEEWR, 3 Productivity Commission, Vocational Education and Training Workforce Research Report, 4 Victorian Curriculum and Assessment Authority data collection 21 5 Victorian Institute of Teaching data collection 211: note change in reporting for 211, one year graduate course enrolments counted in final year only, not first year as in previous years 6 Victorian Institute of Teaching, Annual Report Source: NSSC Table 5a In-school staff count by States and Territories, Affiliation, Sex, Function and Years (1996 to 21), Cat no Schools, Australia 21, ABS DEECD, School Data collected by Data, Outcomes and Evaluation Unit DEEWR, Higher education statistics, u cube, 1 Department of Education, Employment and Workplace Relations (DEEWR); January 28 Staff in Australian Schools Survey 27, Teacher Supply and Demand