W i l l i s I n d e p e n d e n t S c h o o l D i s t r i c t

Transcription

1 W i l l i s I n d e p e n d e n t S c h o o l D i s t r i c t

2 ISD Independent School District February Demographic Study Board of Trustees Christen Arnold - President Sue Ann Powell Vice President Elizabeth McKenna Secretary Rebecca Broussard Assistant Secretary Robin Sproba Trustee Beverly Vornsand Trustee Cliff Williams Trustee Superintendent Tim Harkrider Superintendent

3 ISD Demographic Study February Page A. Introduction & Summary 3 Introduction 3 Summary 4 B. Demographics 8 Population & Race Trends 9 Households & Housing Unit Trends Age Trends Income Trends Household Size Trends Education & Labor Force Trends C. Student Analysis Planning Zones Student Analysis Methodology October Student Distribution D. Growth Issues Factors Influencing Future Growth Development Activity E. Student Projections District-Wide Enrollment Projections Campus Enrollment Projections Capacity Analysis DeskMap Systems, Inc., 70 W State Hwy, Suite 5, Georgetown, TX 788 Page 2

4 Section A - INTRODUCTION Impact Demographics, a division of DeskMap Systems, Inc., a consulting company based in Austin, was retained by the Independent School District (hereinafter referred to as "WISD") to produce a demographic study. The demographic study will provide the District with information necessary to plan for future needs. Included are an analysis of population, housing and related trends, and the factors that will affect population change in the area. This information was utilized in producing enrollment projections by grade for the District. The study report is divided into several sections: The Demographic section of the report has been prepared to tell the demographic story of the ISD geographic area, including the characteristics of the people and population of the area and of the school district itself. The Student Analysis section includes maps displaying the District s planning zones and the residential location of each student in the District. Student counts by planning zone are included based on the district s student database from fall. The Growth Issues section reports on the factors that will influence future enrollment growth and contains information on current and planned developments within the school district. The Student Projections section contains detailed enrollment projection tables for the school district for each grade over a ten-year period. In addition to district-wide enrollment projections, enrollment projections were also produced for each campus. This section also includes an analysis of capacity at each campus. DeskMap Systems, Inc., 70 W State Hwy, Suite 5, Georgetown, TX 788 Page 3

5 SUMMARY DEMOGRAPHICS The demographics section includes several categories of analysis with data tables and graphs. A few of the key categories are as follows. Population. The total population within the boundaries of WISD was estimated to be,4 in. Population. The population under years of age was estimated to be.2% of the total population. Households. Family households in were estimated to be 76.7% of total households and.2% of family households were estimated to include a person under years of age. Age Trends. The median age in WISD was estimated to be.3 in. School-Aged Children Trends. School-age children, ages 5 to, were estimated to total 7,4 in. STUDENT ANALYSIS Student Distribution. The student enrollment was analyzed geographically to determine the density of students in the district by planning zone. Student Distribution. Five planning zones were identified as the planning zones with the largest number of students, each having over 2 students. Student Distribution. There were 6 planning zones with or fewer students. DeskMap Systems, Inc., 70 W State Hwy, Suite 5, Georgetown, TX 788 Page 4

6 GROWTH ISSUES Development Activity. Housing developments in the WISD area were studied to determine current development activity in the District. Residential Development. Twenty active residential development projects were identified and summary information about each development was provided. Future Development Projects. Five large developments were identified that will likely generate large numbers of future students. These projects will have an impact on the future development and growth of the District. STUDENT PROJECTIONS District Projections. Two scenarios were developed for the District-wide enrollment projections. Each is based upon different economic and residential growth assumptions. The Conservative Scenario is based on current economic conditions and is useful for budgeting and staff planning. More robust economic conditions and greater building activity were assumed to derive enrollment projections under the Moderate Scenario. Campus Projections. Enrollment projections were produced for each of WISD s current campuses for the next ten school years. A capacity analysis was developed comparing the campus capacities to the campus enrollment projections. ENROLLMENT PROJECTION SUMMARY A summary of the enrollment projections at the district-level is displayed on the following page. A description of the enrollment projections is provided in Section E Student Projections along with detailed projections by district and campus. DeskMap Systems, Inc., 70 W State Hwy, Suite 5, Georgetown, TX 788 Page 5

7 Conservative Scenario ISD Enrollment Trends & Projections Historical Enrollment Projected Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y 6,4 6,1 6,5 6,784 6,9 7,4 7,4 7,7 8,7 8,4 8,7 9,3 9,3 9,6 9,9 -' to '-' -' to '-' -' to '-' -' to '-' -' to '-' -' to '-' -' to '-' -' to '-' -' to '-' -' to '-' -' to '-' -' to '-' -' to '-' -' to '-' change % 0.% 1.% 3.% 2.% 3.79% 4.% 3.93% 3.85% 4.% 3.% 3.% 3.% 3.% 3.% Note: The above table does not include students in the JJAEP programs. District Totals by Grade Historical Enrollment Projected Grade EE PK K Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Total 6,4 6,1 6,5 6,784 6,9 7,4 7,4 7,7 8,7 8,4 8,7 9,3 9,3 9,6 9,9 Note: The above table does not include students in the JJAEP programs. DeskMap Systems, Inc., 70 W State Hwy, Suite 5, Georgetown, TX 788 Page 6

8 Moderate Scenario ISD Enrollment Trends & Projections Historical Enrollment Projected Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y 6,4 6,1 6,5 6,784 6,9 7,1 7,6 7,982 8,4 8,9 9,8 9,9,6,7,6 -' to '-' -'' to '-' -' to '-' -' to '-' -' to '-' -' to '-' -' to '-' -' to '-' -' to '-' -' to '-' -' to '-' -' to '-'-' to '-'-' to '-' change % 0.% 1.% 3.% 2.% 4.46% 4.91% 5.% 5.95% 6.% 5.% 4.83% 3.93% 4.% 3.81% Note: The above table does not include students in the JJAEP programs. District Totals by Grade Historical Enrollment Projected Grade EE PK K Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Total 6,4 6,1 6,5 6,784 6,9 7,1 7,6 7,982 8,4 8,9 9,8 9,9,6,7,6 Note: The above table does not include students in the JJAEP programs. DeskMap Systems, Inc., 70 W State Hwy, Suite 5, Georgetown, TX 788 Page 7

9 Section B - DEMOGRAPHICS The demographics section of this report has been prepared to tell the demographic story of the ISD geographic area. This overview integrates data tables and graphs to portray the characteristics of the District. Note: This section was developed by integrating several demographic data sources together to provide an analysis of the district. DeskMap Systems, Inc., 70 W State Hwy, Suite 5, Georgetown, TX 788 Page 8

10 Demographics Trends -- ISD population race 1 Census Estimate Projection Population,3 in households,0 in families,3 in non-families 3,5 in group quarters 1 in noninstitutional group quarters under age 8,7 %,4 %,3 % 99.6,1 99.6, ,9 89.5, ,8.5 4, ,7.2 9,6.7 Population Trends,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 5,000 0 Population Population in Familes Population under Age Census Estimate Projection Race & Hispanic Origin Total,3 %,4 %,3 % white, , , black 1, , , American Indian Asian, Pacific Islander other, multi-racial 3, , ,0.0.1 Hispanic Origin (any race) 6, , ,1.0.8 DeskMap Systems, Inc., 70 W State Hwy, Suite 5, Georgetown, TX 788 Page 9

11 Demographics Trends -- households housing units ISD Census Estimate Projection 2 Households,980 %,0 %,1 % families 9,7 76.5, with person under 4,4.2 4,8.2 non-families 2,8.5 3,6.3 with person under , ,2.2 3, Housing Units,7 %,6 %,4 % owner-occupied 9,8.6,4.5,0.4 renter-occupied 2,4.8 2,3.0 2,9.0 vacant units 1,7.6 1,5.5 1,7.5 Household Trends,000,000,000,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Total Households Family Households Housing Unit Trends,000,000,000,000,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Total Housing Units Owner Occupied HU Renter HU DeskMap Systems, Inc., 70 W State Hwy, Suite 5, Georgetown, TX 788 Page

12 Demographics Trends -- 3 age ISD Census Estimate Projection Age, total population,3 %,4 %,3 % under 5 years 2, , , to 9 years 2, , ,6 6.6 to years 2, , ,6 6.6 to years 2, , ,9 6.8 to years 1, , ,8 6.4 to years 4,2.7 4,3.0 4,6.7 to years 4,3.3 4,9.6 4,5.3 to years 4, , ,8.0 to years 4,3.0 4, ,5.4 to 74 years 2, , ,8.0 to 84 years 1, , , years and over Median age School-age children trends Early Elem. (ages 5-9) 2,4.1% 2,2.9% 2,6.8% Late Elem. (ages -) 2,4.9% 2,6.0% 2,6.2% High School (ages -) 2,0.0% 2,5.2% 2,9.0% 7,0 7,4 8,2 0.0% 90.0% 80.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0% 0.0% School Age Children Trends.0%.2%.0%.9%.0%.2%.1%.9%.8% Early Elem. Late Elem./Middle School High School DeskMap Systems, Inc., 70 W State Hwy, Suite 5, Georgetown, TX 788 Page

13 Demographics Trends -- 4 income ISD Census Estimate Projection Household income (households) % (households) % (households) % under $, $,000 -, $,000 -, $,000 -, $,000 -, $,000 -, $,000 -, $,000 -, ,2 8.7 $,000 -, $,000 -,999 1, , ,0 8.8 $,000-74,999 1, ,0.3 1,4 9.7 $,000-99,999 1, ,7.5 2,0.8 $0,000-4, , ,0 9.5 $5,000-9, $0,000-9, $0,000 and over ,1 8.3 Aggregate income ($M) ,5 Average income $,7 $,6 $77,3 Median income $,2 $,1 $,4 Per capita income $,4 $,6 $,0 $,000 $,000 $,000 $,000 $,000 Per Capita income Median income $,000 $,000 $0 DeskMap Systems, Inc., 70 W State Hwy, Suite 5, Georgetown, TX 788 Page

14 Demographics Trends -- ISD household size 5 Household size All households 1 person 2 persons 3 to 4 persons 5+ persons Owner households 1 person 2 persons 3 to 4 persons 5+ persons Renter households 1 person 2 persons 3 to 4 persons 5+ persons Census,980 2,3 4,4 3,7 1,6 9,8 1,7 3,791 2,8 1,8 % , Estimate Projection,0 2,6 4,8 4,3 1,7,4 1,882 4,1 3,0 1,2 % , ,1 2,7 5,3 4,0 1,9,0 1,897 4,7 3,974 1,6 2,9 8 1,7 6 5 % Household size family size non-family size Household Size Percentages.2%.0%.7% 1 Person 2 People.9% 3-4 People DeskMap Systems, Inc., 70 W State Hwy, Suite 5, Georgetown, TX 788 Page

15 Demographics Trends -- ISD education, labor force 6 Census Estimate Projection Education persons age +,9 %,0 %,9 % no high school diploma 3,8.3 4,3.6 4,7.5 high school graduate 6,9.3 7,3.1 8,4.4 some college 5,8.7 5,9.6 6,3.6 associate degree 1, , ,3 7.7 college degree 3,7.4 3,4.3 3,8.2 graduate/professional degree 1, , ,9 5.5 Educational Attainment - Percentages of People Age + Labor Force Trends,000.9%.5%.3%.3% Less than HS HS Graduate Some College or Assoc.,000,000,000 5,000 Population in Labor Force Employed Unemployed College Graduate 0 1 Labor Force in labor force employed unemployed in Armed Forces not in labor force persons age +,3 %,3 %,5 %,6.9,892.8,1.9,8 91.0, , , , , ,6.1,9.2,7.1 DeskMap Systems, Inc., 70 W State Hwy, Suite 5, Georgetown, TX 788 Page

16 Section C - STUDENT ANALYSIS PLANNING ZONES The District has been divided into planning zones. Planning zones provide smaller areas of geography to allow for the detailed analysis of densities and distributions of students. The map on the following page displays the WISD planning zones. STUDENT ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY The October student population was analyzed geographically to determine the concentration of students in each planning zone and the general distribution of the students within the District. A database containing current student information for the entire district was obtained from WISD. The student addresses were used to locate each student on a digital map database of the District. Computer mapping software was used to locate the addresses of the students on the map database. Some student addresses were automatically found on the database by the software, but other addresses had to be researched to determine the approximate location. DeskMap Systems, Inc., 70 W State Hwy, Suite 5, Georgetown, TX 788 Page

17 Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm ( ( ( ' ' ' Prepared By DeskMap Systems, Inc Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm (' 78 City of Planning Zones ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD High School Elementary Schools Middle Schools Planning Zones

18 OCTOBER STUDENT DISTRIBUTION The number of students by grade in each planning zone as of October is displayed in the table on the following page. From this table it can be determined where the largest concentrations of students reside as well as areas where very few students reside. In October there were 6,9 students enrolled in WISD. Of these, 3 students had addresses that were outside of the school district s boundaries. Similar to previous demographic studies, there were several planning zones with a significantly larger number of students. The planning zones with over 2 students and their student counts are described as follows: Planning Zone 61, part of the Meador Elementary attendance zone, was the planning zone with the largest number of students with 4 students in October. Planning Zone, part of the Parmley Elementary attendance zone, had 1 students in October. Planning Zones 6, part of the Parmley Elementary attendance zone, had 3 students. Planning Zone, part of the Meador Elementary attendance zone, had 3 students in October. Planning Zone, part of the Elementary attendance zone, had 3 students in October. There were 6 planning zones with or fewer students. The map that follows the table displays the residential locations of all students in the District. This map is followed by three others which display residential locations of Elementary (EE to 5 th grade), Middle School (6 th through 8 th grade) and High School students. DeskMap Systems, Inc., 70 W State Hwy, Suite 5, Georgetown, TX 788 Page

19 WISD Students by Grade by Planning Zone - Fall Planning EE & Kinder- 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9tth th th th Total Zone PK garten Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Students Out of District 3 Total ,9 DeskMap Systems, Inc., 70 W State Hwy, Suite 5, Georgetown, TX 788 Page

20 Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm ( ( ( ' ' ' Prepared By DeskMap Systems, Inc. (5) Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm (' 78 City of HS Students Elementary Students MS Students Total Students ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD Planning Zones High School Elementary Schools Middle Schools

21 Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm ( ( ( ' ' ' Prepared By DeskMap Systems, Inc. (5) Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm (' 78 City of Elementary Students Elementary Students ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD Planning Zones High School Elementary Schools Middle Schools

22 Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm ( ( ( ' ' ' Prepared By DeskMap Systems, Inc. (5) Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm (' 78 City of Middle School Students Middle School Students ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD Planning Zones High School Elementary Schools Middle Schools

23 Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm ( ( ( ' ' ' Prepared By DeskMap Systems, Inc. (5) Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm (' 78 City of High School Students High School Students ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD Planning Zones High School Elementary Schools Middle Schools

24 Section D - GROWTH ISSUES FACTORS INFLUENCING FUTURE GROWTH Planners, demographers, and other urban professionals often use the words growth and development ; but these terms can be sometimes vague and ambiguous. A more thorough understanding of the definition of these terms is appropriate to explain exactly what is being discussed, but equally important is an understanding of the forces that cause the growth or decline, the relationships that exist between these forces, and exactly how they can, or cannot, affect student enrollment. These individual forces are known as the components of growth or elements, which can be isolated, identified, and described to better explain and measure the relationships between these factors and how they intertwine to stimulate the dynamics of community life. The components of growth or decline are: population student enrollment housing employment land use changes It is the changes in these components over time and how they impact the community that are of primary interest for planning purposes. Normally the economic growth of an area is defined in terms of job growth and by the character of the labor force. It is typically the growth of jobs that retain and attract population. Population growth has two components: 1) natural increase (the net increase of births over deaths of the native born population). These are native-born locals who stay within the area as they mature to adults because of increased job opportunities and the quality of life within the area. Another component of population growth is 2) migration, or those new people who move into the area (or from out of the area) from other parts of the state, country, or other parts of the world because of employment opportunities or other desirable qualities that the area may possess. It is the increase in people, which stimulates a demand for housing growth, either single family, multifamily apartments, or mobile units. And ultimately, it is the families who occupy these housing units that produce the children that create the student enrollment demand that is of interest for this report. Urban growth (even in a predominantly rural area) typically refers to the land use of a community and how the land changes as raw land is converted to real estate DeskMap Systems, Inc., 70 W State Hwy, Suite 5, Georgetown, TX 788 Page

25 that supports urban activities. Land use categories are subsets of different land types that result as raw land is converted into various types of development to support urban activities. These include: housing/residential single-family, multi-family/apartments, condominium, mobile/manufactured dwellings commercial - retail, office, parking lots and facilities industrial warehouse, business park, manufacturing, natural resource processing recreational parks, open space, historic areas, wildlife refuge areas, environmentally sensitive or protected areas institutional medical; educational; federal, state, or local government; military installations; tax exempt/ free enterprise zones (usually all are tax exempt properties) transportation/infrastructure streets, freeways, roads, railroad, airports etc. vacant, undeveloped, agricultural, raw land This development is the end result of the interactions between the components of growth. These interactions are complicated and interrelated economic, sociological, and supply/demand processes that are: a) unique to the immediate location; b) present within the county; c) or present in the larger, regional area. Any of these or any combination of these forces may stimulate growth within the school district. DeskMap Systems, Inc., 70 W State Hwy, Suite 5, Georgetown, TX 788 Page

26 DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY Future residential development in the District is typically a significant factor impacting school enrollment. Knowing where the development will occur is necessary for school planning. WISD RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENTS DeskMap Systems, Inc. identified current and planned housing developments within WISD. Where possible, the activities and plans for each major development were obtained through interviews with a representative of the project. Information about each project was collected, including total lots, the number of lots still available, home price and the type of families moving into the development. The analysis focused on potential growth sites, those developments that may have the greatest impact on school enrollment. The findings have been factored into the enrollment projections. A total of developments were identified. A map follows to display the location of each development. A summary of the development projects is provided in tables that follow the map and additional information about each development is located at the end of this section. DeskMap Systems, Inc., 70 W State Hwy, Suite 5, Georgetown, TX 788 Page

27 Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm ( ( ( # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # Prepared By DeskMap Systems, Inc. (5) Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Interstate N Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm Fm ( 78 # # City of High School Elementary Schools Middle Schools Developments ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD ISD Planning Zones # Developments

28 Growth Sites in ISD Elementary Approximate Planning Attendance Total Units Comments & Status Development Type Zone Zone Units Remaining of Development 1 Bella Vita on Lake single family Turner Of the remaining homes 4 are built but not sold. These are highend home on the lake. Little impact on WISD enrollment. 2 Camellia single family Turner 3 Chase Run single family Turner 0 0 Most homes are priced in the $0,000s Work has begun on infrastructure. Construction on homes to begin mid. 1 homes will be in 1st phase Dominion Ridge single family Turner 86 French Quarter single family Turner 2 1 Hallmark of single family Turner Heritage Reserve single family Turner Indian Forest single family 9 Lake Breeze single family Turner 5 (in new sections) About 5 (including future ssection) About 1 (including future sction) Lots are on 1 acre or more. Priced $0K+ About homes are now completed. Median price is about $0,000. This is a new section that has recently begun. Most homes are priced between the $0Ks and $2ks. Construction to begin in spring on 1st tract of acres which will have homes. The 2nd tract of acres may have 90 homes but this is less certain. Homes may average $0K but is subject to change. Older subdvision with homes being constructed on indvidual lots. Nearly all built out. more homes to be built in current section. 5 homes currently under construction in current section. Homes are $9,900 to $9,900. New section of 0 homes near lake will begin in. Homes to be priced around $0,000. Lake Hills single family Meador 0 about 0 This table is continued on the following page. Older development where building has resumed in recent years. DeskMap Systems, Inc., 70 W State Hwy, Suite 5, Georgetown, TX 788 Page

29 Growth Sites in ISD Elementary Approximate Planning Attendance Total Units Comments & Status Development Type Zone Zone Units Remaining of Development Longmire Creek Estates single family Turner 46 North Lake Estates single family Hardy 74 + Olde Oaks single family Turner 0 The Park at White Oak single family Turner 85 Pin Oak manufactured and site built Parmley in newest section to Homes are $0K+ and on one acre. One home under construction. About 74 builable lots. 1 2 acre lots. All lots sold. Homes are in the $0Ks. More than homes yet to be built. Most homes priced $0K+. Subdivision is nearly complete. homes under construction. 7 have not started. Some activity but building has slowed. Shadow Lake Forest single family Turner about 0 about 0 Teaswood Avenue single family Turner Water Crest on Lake single family Turner High 0s High 0s White Oak Ranch single family Turner 1 about Unnamed Development single family Hardy 0 0 Total Housing Units 4,0+ 2,8+ First homes are probably one year away. No pricing yet. Upscale homes marketed towards older homebuyers. Little impact on WISD. Road work underway. Homes will range from $2K to $0K. homes under construction. First home to close in Feb.. Additional sections may be developed. Subdivision is now about 2/3 built out. Most homes are $0K+ Currently no name. First homes expected to be completed mid. Most homes to be priced low to mid $0Ks. About 0 homes will be in the $0Ks. Source: DeskMap Systems, Inc. DeskMap Systems, Inc., 70 W State Hwy, Suite 5, Georgetown, TX 788 Page

30 Future Development with High Impact to ISD Elementary Planning Attendance Total Development Type Zone Zone Units Howard Hughes/ Woodland Corp. Moran Ranch Stalwart Ranch Unnamed Development Unnamed Development Single family and likely multi family Single family and likely multi family Meador & Turner Vast majority is in Meador Meador & Turner Single family and likely multi family 8 Hardy about 5,000 unknown thousands of residential units Probably some residential Turner unknown Probably some residential Turner unknown Comments & Status This tract of about 2,000 acres will be "a city in a city" with thousands of home, retail, commerical, etc. There will be no official plans released until the end of. Infrastructure work is likely to begin in. No official name p yet. p y There may also be additional pieces of the ranch making it much larger. The northern portion is in the City of and its ETJ and the southern half is in the City of ETJ. This property is being marketed and has not yet been sold to a developer. It is possible that the majority of this property will be developed as commercial. May include higher density residential. This 1,0 acre tract was identified in DeskMap System's demographic study. The majority of the ranch has recently been sold and the remainer is under contract. No plans have been revealed at this time. 3 acres. East side of Little Egypt Road and south side of FM 8 in southern WISD. No known development plans at this time. 3 acres. East side of Little Egypt Road and also borders Longmire Road in southern WISD. South of the 3 acre tract listed above. No known development plans at this time. DeskMap Systems, Inc., 70 W State Hwy, Suite 5, Georgetown, TX 788 Page

31 RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS Summary information is provided in this section on the active residential housing developments in ISD. Bella Vita on Lake Bella Vita on the Lake is an established subdivision of lots in southwestern WISD. There are remaining homes to be built and there are four homes built but not yet sold. Homes in this subdivision are high-end and are on waterfront or water-view lots. This subdivision will have little impact on WISD s enrollment. The housing development is in Planning Zone in the Turner Elementary attendance zone. Camellia Camellia is also an established active subdivision and is also located near Lake. There are to more homes to be constructed in this -lot development. Most homes are priced in the $0,000s. The housing development is in Planning Zone in the Turner Elementary attendance zone. Chase Run Chase Run is a new subdivision located between Teas Lakes and. Section 5 of Teas Lakes was sold before development and that section is now Chase Run. Chase run will have 0 homes at build-out. Home prices have yet to be established. Infrastructure construction is currently underway in the first phase. The first phase will consist of 1 homes. It is expected that home construction will begin in June. The housing development is in Planning Zone in the Turner Elementary attendance zone. DeskMap Systems, Inc., 70 W State Hwy, Suite 5, Georgetown, TX 788 Page

32 Dominion Ridge Dominion Ridge is another established subdivision. Development has been slower than most other subdivisions as the homes are custom and are on 1-acre or larger lots. Of the 86-lots there are still homes to be constructed. The housing development is in Planning Zone in the Turner Elementary attendance zone. French Quarter The French Quarter subdivision is a 2-lot subdivision on Lake south of FM 8. The subdivision has developed slowly and has had limited impact on WISD enrollment. About homes are currently completed and the median home price is about $0,000. The housing development is in Planning Zone in the Turner Elementary attendance zone. Hallmark of Hallmark of is a new section of homes being built within. No homes have currently been built. Most homes will be priced between $0,000 and $5,000. The housing development is in Planning Zone in the Turner Elementary attendance zone. Heritage Reserve Heritage Reserve is located in far southwestern WISD within the ETJ. It is located west of Longmire Road but currently has no road frontage. The - acre tract will have 0 homes. Homes may average $0,000 but that is subject to change. Construction is expected to begin in spring. The housing development is in Planning Zone in the Turner Elementary attendance zone. DeskMap Systems, Inc., 70 W State Hwy, Suite 5, Georgetown, TX 788 Page

33 Indian Forest Indian Forest is a very large older development with affordable homes northeast of the City of. In the demographic study DeskMap Systems reported that there were 5 lots just in the newer sections. Currently, the subdivision is nearly built-out with only lots remaining. The housing development is in Planning Zone in the Elementary attendance zone. Lake Breeze Lake Breeze, on Lake and just north of the French Quarter, will expand by 0 lots. The new section brings the total homes to 5 at build-out. There will be 5 homes, most priced between $9,000 and $9,000, in the original section. This section is nearing completion with additional homes to be built. Homes in the new section will be priced at about $0,000. The housing development is in Planning Zone in the Turner Elementary attendance zone. Lake Hills Lake Hills is an older subdivision in western WISD near Lake. Building has resumed since the recession. There are still approximately 0 lots in the subdivision which have yet to be built on. At built-out there will be 0 homes. Most new homes in Lake Hills are priced in the mid-$0,000s. The housing development is in Planning Zone in the Meador Elementary attendance zone. Longmire Creek Estates Longmire Creek Estates is located in southwest WISD in close proximity to the lake. Seventeen homes have been built and one is under construction in the - lot subdivision. Homes are on one acre and are priced at $0,000 and more. The development of Longmire Creek Estates will have little impact on WISD enrollment. DeskMap Systems, Inc., 70 W State Hwy, Suite 5, Georgetown, TX 788 Page

34 The housing development is in Planning Zone in the Turner Elementary attendance zone. North Lake Estates North Lake Estates is in northwestern WISD near the intersection of FM 97 and Longstreet Road. There are about 74 buildable lots of one to two acres. All lots have been sold and there are about more homes to be constructed. Most homes are in the $0,000s. The housing development is in Planning Zone in the Hardy Elementary attendance zone. Olde Oaks Olde Oaks is another established subdivision nearing completion. The housing development is located near U.S. Highway near Turner Elementary School. About to homes remain to be built in the 0-home subdivision. Homes are economical with most priced $0,000 or more. The housing development is in Planning Zone in the Turner Elementary attendance zone. The Park at White Oak The Park at White Oak has been slow to develop but is now nearing build-out. The 85-lot subdivision located south of League Line Road and west of I- currently has homes under construction. There are only seven homes yet to be started. Most homes are priced in the mid-$0,000s to low $0,000s. The housing development is in Planning Zone in the Turner Elementary attendance zone. Pin Oak Pin Oak, located just west of the City of, is composed mainly of manufactured homes but includes a newer section of site-built homes. Although DeskMap Systems, Inc., 70 W State Hwy, Suite 5, Georgetown, TX 788 Page

35 building activity continues, this subdivision has developed very slowly. Twenty to thirty additional homes could still be built here. The housing development is in Planning Zone in the Parmley Elementary attendance zone. Shadow Lake Forest Construction of the infrastructure has begun at Shadow Lake Forest, a subdivision on the east side of Little Egypt Road in southwest WISD. At buildout there will be 0 homes on very large lots. The first phase will have 76 lots. Pricing of homes has not yet been established. The housing development is in Planning Zone in the Turner Elementary attendance zone. Teaswood Avenue Roadwork is underway in Teaswood Avenue, an upscale community of homes off of League Line Road just west of I-. This subdivision is marketed towards older homebuyers and therefore will have little impact on WISD enrollment. The housing development is in Planning Zone in the Turner Elementary attendance zone. Water Crest on Lake Water Crest on Lake is a large new development near the end of League Line Road near the lake. Currently there are 9 homes planned but additional sections are very likely. The total number of homes will likely be in the high 0s. Decisions on additional sections are at least one year away. Currently, about homes are under construction. The first homes are expected to close in February. Home prices will be $2,000 to about $0,000 for those near the lake. The housing development is in Planning Zone in the Turner Elementary attendance zone. DeskMap Systems, Inc., 70 W State Hwy, Suite 5, Georgetown, TX 788 Page

36 White Oak Ranch White Oaks Ranch is now two-thirds complete. The subdivision, located south of League Line Road on Lake, has about remaining lots out of its total 1 homes. Most homes are priced $0,000 and more. The housing development is in Planning Zone in the Turner Elementary attendance zone. Unnamed Development (#) A new, currently unnamed subdivision will be constructed on the east side of Longstreet Road just north of the FM 97 intersection. The development will have 0 homes, of which, about 0 will be priced in the low to mid $0,000s and another 0 homes will be in the $0,000s. Development has not yet begun. It is expected that the first homes will be completed in mid-. The housing development is in Planning Zone in the Hardy Elementary attendance zone. DeskMap Systems, Inc., 70 W State Hwy, Suite 5, Georgetown, TX 788 Page

37 Future Development with High Impact to WISD Summary information is provided in this section on the future residential housing developments in ISD. These developments are large in size and have potential for generating higher numbers of students. Howard Hughes/Woodland Corporation The developer of The Woodlands has purchased approximately 2,000 acres in WISD and will develop a planned community of homes, commercial and retail sections. This large project and others are evidence that the WISD area is viewed as an attractive option for homes within a short commute of the surge of new jobs to the south in and other communities. It is possible that additional tracts of land may be purchased. The current tract is west of I- with a small section bordering I-. It extends north with a small section bordering FM 97. The property extends south of FM 8. This project may include 5,000 homes and possibly townhomes. No plans have yet been submitted and it will not be until the end of when more concrete plans are established. Infrastructure construction is planned to begin in. The housing development is in Planning Zones in the Meador and Turner Elementary attendance zones. The vast majority of the development will be in the Meador attendance zone. Moran Ranch The Moran Ranch is a large property along I- between and. The ranch is primarily east of I- although there may be additional sections that could be included in the project. There are about 1,0 acres and 5 acres of the project have been annexed by the City of. The property is being actively marketed but, as of the writing of this report, there has not been a buyer. It cannot be determined at this time how this property will be developed. With its extensive I- border much of it will be developed as commercial. It is also DeskMap Systems, Inc., 70 W State Hwy, Suite 5, Georgetown, TX 788 Page

38 possible that this tract could produce 800 to 1,000 homes including high density multi-family units. Activity is most likely two years away. The housing development is in Planning Zone in the Meador and Turner Elementary attendance zones. Stalwart Ranch The Stalwart Ranch is a 1,0-acre tract just west of I- northwest of the City of. It is bordered on the north by Calvary Road and partially on the south by Longstreet Road. This ranch has been rumored for development for some time and, in fact, was identified for possible future development in DeskMap System s demographic study. A portion of the ranch has recently been sold and the remainder is under contract. No plans have been released concerning plans for future development. This area could result in a very large number of homes. The housing development is in Planning Zone in the Hardy Elementary attendance zone. Unnamed Development (#) There are two large tracts along the east side of Little Egypt Road in the City of s ETJ that could possibly be developed in the next several years for residential purposes. The first is a 3-acre tract that partially borders FM 8. No plans have currently been made. The housing development is in Planning Zone in the Turner Elementary attendance zone. Unnamed Development (#) To the south of the tract mentioned above is a 3-acre property bordering Little Egypt Road and League Line Road. It is likely that at least a portion of this property will be developed commercially. The housing development is in Planning Zone in the Turner Elementary attendance zone. DeskMap Systems, Inc., 70 W State Hwy, Suite 5, Georgetown, TX 788 Page

39 Section E - STUDENT PROJECTIONS DeskMap Systems projected the student enrollment of ISD by grade over a -year period. Two scenarios were developed for the District-wide enrollment projections. Each is based upon different economic and residential growth assumptions. These scenarios are called the Conservative and Moderate Scenarios. Four major factors drive district-wide student enrollment projections. These include: Recent Kindergarten enrollment trends, modified by live birth data. Changes in the grade level cohorts of students served as it moves across the years. Changes in out-of-district enrollment. Changes in the number of dwelling units within the District. District-wide enrollment projections are reported first followed by campus enrollment projections. DeskMap Systems, Inc., 70 W State Hwy, Suite 5, Georgetown, TX 788 Page

40 Birth Data The number of live births within a school district is sometimes used as an indicator of the number of Kindergarteners five years later. However, live birth data have not been a reliable indicator in many cases, especially in areas of higher migration and student transfers. DeskMap Systems analyzed the number of live births for the ZIP Codes in ISD and determined that the birth data was not a strong Kindergarten indicator. The total number of live births born to mothers residing within the WISD borders account for only about 79% of the Kindergartens 5 years later. Furthermore, there was a decline in births in and which, if this data were to be used as an indicator, would mean a decline in Kindergarten enrollment five years later in and. DeskMap Systems does not think that this will be the case. DeskMap Systems, Inc., 70 W State Hwy, Suite 5, Georgetown, TX 788 Page

41 DISTRICT-WIDE ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS District-wide enrollment projections by grade are displayed in the following tables. The enrollment projections do not include some special programs. CONSERVATIVE SCENARIO DeskMap Systems developed projections under the Conservative Scenario based upon currently known developments and economic conditions. The Conservative projections are useful for budgeting and staff planning. Enrollment figures for are actual enrollments from October but may differ very slightly from figures in other tables in this report. MODERATE SCENARIO More robust economic conditions and greater building activity were assumed to derive enrollment projections under the Moderate Scenario. District-wide figures for the Moderate Scenario follow the Conservative Scenario. Note: All of the enrollment projections displayed in this report are for late October of each year rather than the beginning of the school year. This is to remain consistent with the Texas Education Agency s Public Education Information Management System (PEIMS) official date of late October for reporting school district enrollment data. DeskMap Systems, Inc., 70 W State Hwy, Suite 5, Georgetown, TX 788 Page