Otomotiv J n a u n a u r a y, y

Transcription

1 Doğuş Otomotiv January, 2010

2 Agenda Doğuş Group Doğuş Otomotiv Macroeconomic Outlook Automotive Market Doğuş Otomotiv Financial Results New Projects Expectations Appendix 2

3 Group Structure Financial Services Automotive Construction Media Tourism & Leisure Real Estate Energy Corporate Social Responsibility 3

5 Presence in Every Link of Automotive Value Chain DOAS produces, finances, sells, rents, insures, services, repairs and inspects 5

6 Widest Retail & Services Network in Turkey Approx. 500 customer points, widest among the competitors (*) DOAS brands, including VW, Audi, Porsche, Scania, Seat, Krone, VW Marine, Scania Marine, Skoda as of end-december

7 Success Story of DOAS Partnership with LeasePlan in fleet rental Bugatti representative Car park more than 700K units Porsche Dealership in Lausanne Krone & Meiller Production Agreements IPO TÜV TURK Doğuş Group established subsidiaries for distributing VW, Audi & Porsche Seat & Skoda contract signed (Partnership with Yūce Oto) Krone contract signed Lamborghini LOI Bentley LOI OTO-FIX Scania contract signed JV in consumer financing with VW Financial Services AG Meiller Distribution Thermoking Distribution VW Marine Engines Used car operations established Merger of automotive companies under DOAS M/S:Market Share M/S: 0.5% M/S: 5.8% M/S: 12.0% M/S: 10.6% After Dogus Otomotiv became the sole importer and distributor of VW brand vehicles in Turkey, VW brands market share increased from 0.5% in 1993 to 12% in

8 Key Strengths of DOAS Leader in import market in Turkey with 16% m/s among c. 30 pure importers One-stop shopping concept showroom, after sales services, consumer financing, insurance Well-positioned multi-brand products 15 different brands Creating its own brands DOD, Oto-fix Youngest fleet in the market with new launches every year, has more than 75 models Widespread network and customer base, widest network with c.500 customer points Customer focus, close relations with customers result in loyalty to the brands Well-equipped IT infrastructure Advanced financial risk management systems daily monitoring of the FX position Profit oriented growth strategy profitability always kept without losing market share 8

9 DOAS Position in the Market LCV PV Volkswagen ranked 2nd in PC Market Passat retains its 1st position in its Segment. VW PVs ranked 5th in the market VW LCV ranked 5th in the commercial vehicles market, as 3rd among import brands Transporter is the best selling combi vehicle in its segment HCV Luxury Segment 8 Bentleys, 9 Lamborghinis sold in 2009 Scania ranked the best selling brand for the seventh time in the 16 tons and above import heavy commercial vehicle market Krone is the best selling import trailer with 12.0% m/s Audi is SUV premium segment leader. Audi sold units in 2009 (Highest sales ever). Porsche is the best selling brand of luxury sport segment 9

10 Recent Launches Volkswagen PV Volkswagen LCV Audi Porsche Seat Bentley Lamborghini Scania Krone Touran, Scirocco, New Polo,Touareg New Transporter Caravelle (facelift) Q7 PI, A5 Cabrio, A4 Allroad Panamera,Cayenne Diesel, 911 GT2, Carrera(facelift), Boxster(facelift), Leon(facelift),Altea XL,Exeo, Ibiza SC Continental Flying Spur Speed,Continental GT Speed,Continental GTC Speed, Continental Supersports Gallardo LP 560-4, Murcielago LP 640,Murciélago LP SuperVeloce G series,egr Cooliner Duoplex 10

12 Current Macroeconomic Outlook Structural improvements in Turkish economy (social security reform, tax reform, banking sector restructuring, independent central bank, increased transparency in fiscal accounts) Tight fiscal policy (though relatively looser compared to past years) Relations with IMF to continue Ongoing disinflation efforts (Annual CPI at 6.53 % as of end Dec 09) Reforms on EU convergence Net FDI inflow declines (During January-Sep 2009, FDI inflows decreased by 57% to US$ 5.1 billion compared to the same period last year) Global credit crunch Shrinkage in major economies Increasing risk aversion 12

13 Macroeconomic Indicators YoY Inflation (%) Nominal Exchange Rates Source: TURKSTAT Benchmark & O/N Interest Rates (%) Source: CBT, Garanti Bank Source: CBT, ISE 13

14 Macroeconomic Indicators Foreign Trade Volume (US$bn) FDI Inflows in OECD Countries (US$bn) Slovak Rep. Hungary Czech Republic Poland Turkey Mexico Source: TURKSTAT Auto Loan Rates (%) Source: OECD Trends and Recent Developments in FDI Report Consumer Confidence Index 4,25 3,75 3,25 2,75 2,25 1,75 1,25 0,75 0,25 Source: VDF TRY EURO USD Mar Jun- Sep Dec Mar Jun- Sep Dec Mar Jun- Sep Dec Mar Jun- Sep Dec Mar Jun- Sep Dec Mar Jun- Sep Dec Mar Jun- Sep Dec 110,00 100,00 90,00 80,00 1,14 70,00 0,84 0,67 60,00 Source: TURKSTAT 78,38 14

16 Turkish Automotive Market Outlook Huge upside potential in the domestic market... Approx. 16mn more vehicles need to be sold in Turkey to reach the level of Bulgaria Vehicle Ownership per 1,000 inhabitants (PV+LCV) Turkey Bulgaria Poland Greece EU Average France UK Germany Italy USA Source: OSD (2007) 16

17 Automotive Market Russia Crisis Economic Crisis Turbulance in Global Markets 653 July 2007 Elections 619 Effects of Global Crisis base case worst case E 2011E 2012E 2009 At a glance 15

18 Automotive Market 2009 Market Review 14

19 Market Review %20 369K 307K % %-42 %9 564K 516K 189K 184K 20K 12K 2009 PV LCV HCV TOTAL

21 DOAS Headline Figures - I Vehicle Sales Volume 9M 09 9M 08 YoY ch. Unit sales (16) % 2nd hand sales (30)% P&L (CMB, US$ mn) 9M 09 9M 08 YoY ch. Revenues (25)% Gross Profit (19)% Gross Margin 14.4% 13.3% - Operating Profit % Operating Margin 4.6% 1.9% - EBITDA % EBITDA Margin 5.5% 2.8% - Net Profit 27 (26) 203% Net Margin 2,5% (1.8%) - 21

22 DOAS Headline Figures - II BS (CMB, US$ mn) 31-Sept Dec-2008 Ch. Total Assets (13)% Shareholders' Equity % Capital Expenditures (58)% Net Cash (Debt) (192) (156) (23)% Turnovers (days) Receivable Turnover % Inventory Turnover (58)% Payable Turnover (57)% 22

24 Trailer Production with Krone In 2003, Dogus Otomotiv has become the main exclusive importer and distributor of Krone trailers in Turkey. Dogus Otomotiv and Krone reached a new agreement in 2007 and formed a JV company to produce trailers in Turkey. In the newly established JV company Dogus Otomotiv holds 49% stake, while the remaining 51% is owned by Krone. Estimated capex is US$20 mn for 49% share. Production plant will become operational in 2011 with an initial capacity of 5,000 units which is planned to be increased to10,000 after the 1st year. 90% of production will be diverted to exports. Krone is the leader of the import trailer market in Turkey with 45% market share (12% in total trailer market, ranked 4th). 24

25 Tipper Production with Meiller Dogus Otomotiv has become the main exclusive importer and distributor of Meiller brand in Turkey in February As per the Letter of Intent (LoI) signed in October 2007, Dogus Otomotiv and Meiller formed a joint venture (JV) company. The JV is manufacturing Meiller brand tippers and semi-trailer tippers in Turkey. In the newly established JV company Dogus Otomotiv holds 49% stake, while the remaining 51% is owned by Meiller. The plant has become operational in 1Q08, with 3,000 units annual production capacity. Almost 80% of the production is diverted to exports. Dogus Otomotiv and Meiller have invested a total EUR10mn for the plant. 25

26 Porsche Sales in Lausanne In 2007, Dogus Otomotiv was granted by Porsche AG for the marketing, sales and after-sales retail operations of Porsche brand in Lausanne, Switzerland. In Switzerland; an important market for Porsche, 1,924 units of Porsche cars sold in 2008 vs 157 in Turkey. Establishment of a new showroom in Lausanne will be one of Switzerland s largest Porsche outlets. Operations have started in 2H09. Estimated investment is US$18 mn. 26

28 Expectations AUTO MARKET Total Market (PV,LCV,HCV) 564 K 516, ,770 DOAŞ Market Share 9% 10.6% 11.4% DOD Used Car Sales ,122 13,024 FINANCIALS (IFRS) 2009E Revenues (US$mn) 1,302 1,658 1,979 Gross Margin 14% -15% 13.6% 13.8% Operating Profit Margin 3.5% - 4% 0.9% 3.6% Average US$/TRY Rate

30 VDF is a hidden value (End of Nov) New contracts: units ( 25% yoy decrease) Credits Given: TRY 540 mn (23% yoy decrease) Portfolio: units (24% yoy decrease) Market Share: 11% among all financial institutions Consumer Finance 2008 New contracts: 25,198 units (24% yoy decrease) Credits Given: TRY 767 mn (21% yoy decrease) Portfolio: 81,141 units (18% yoy decrease) Market Share: 11% among all financial institutions 2007 New contracts: 38,776 units Credits Given: TRY 968 mn Portfolio: 98,432 units Market Share: 14% among all financial institutions 30

31 Motor Vehicle Inspection Stations (MVIS) TUVTURK a cash cow business of DOAS, Bridgepoint and TÜV SÜD TuvTurk consortium was granted by Turkish Privatization Administration the right to build & operate MVISs in Turkey for 20 years in exchange of US$552mn. 189 fixed and 80 mobile inspection stations are fully operational as of end-1q09, with an investment of US$200mn. The operations in every region, except Istanbul, are being carried out by the business associates (BA) for 20 years in exchange of one-time license fees totalling US$750mn collected by the TuvTurk consortium. The BAs will share their revenues with the government: 1-3rd years: 30%; 4-10th years: 40% and 11-20th years: 50%...and with TUVTURK consortium: 1-10th years 7% and 11-20th years: 20% The MVIS business is expected to generate US$15bn revenues in 20 years with US$2.5bn EBITDA. 31

32 DOD: Used Car Sales Almost 100% of the second-hand vehicles sales market is non-organized. The market is expected to grow exponentially in the coming years, due to increase in consumer awareness about organized side and much more favorable tax rates compared to new cars. DOD is the largest organized retailer of the used car business. The only brand that provides guarantee for the second hand cars which increases the consumer confidence. DOD increased its sales volume by 1% YoY to 13,122 vehicles in Expected sales volume for 2009 is 13,000 i.e. mere 1% YoY decrease over ,000 16,000 12,000 8,000 4,000 4,881 DOD Sales Performance 1% -1% 68% 13,024 13,122 13,000 59% 7, E 32

33 DOAS Headline Figures Vehicle Sales Volume YoY ch. Unit sales 55,307 71,690 (23)% 2nd hand sales 13,125 13,024 1% P&L (IFRS, US$ mn) YoY ch. Revenues 1,658 1,979 (16)% Gross Profit (18)% Gross Margin 13.6% 13.8% - Operating Profit (79)% Operating Margin 0.9% 3.6% - EBITDA (65)% EBITDA Margin 1.8% 4.3% - Net Profit (87) 49.4 (276)% Net Margin (-5.2%) 2.5% - 33

34 DOAS Headline Figures BS (IFRS, US$ mn) 31-Dec Dec-2007 Ch. Total Assets (4)% Shareholders' Equity (50)% Capital Expenditures (48)% Net Cash (Debt) (156) (113) (38)% Turnovers (days) Receivable Turnover (14)% Inventory Turnover % Payable Turnover % 34

35 Stock Performance 1,20 12,00 Closing Price (TRY) (31Dec09) 4,84 52 wk High (TRY) (05 Jan 09) 5,80 1,00 10,00 52 wk Low (TRY) (09 March 09) ,80 8,00 % Price Change 1 Month Ago 5,40 % 0,60 6,00 % Price Change 3 Months Ago 7,60 % % Price Change 6 Months Ago 94,60 % 0,40 4,00 % Price Change 1 Year Ago 173,9% 0,20 0,00 IMKB-100 Relative DOAS (TL) 2,00 0,00 Ave. Trading Volume (US$mn) 2.3 Mcap (US$mn) (31Dec09) 358 SHAREHOLDERS STRUCTURE % Share Amount (TRY) DOĞUŞ HOLDİNG A.Ş % 38,730,609 DOĞUŞ ARAŞTIRMA GEL. VE MÜŞ. HİZM.A.Ş % 33,319,043 OTHER DOĞUŞ GROUP COMPANIES 0.00% 348 PUBLICLY TRADED 34.50% 37,950,000 TOTAL % 110,000,000 35

36 Thank You..

37 Contact Doğuş Otomotiv Investor Relations Tel: +90 (0) Fax: +90 (0) Address: Doğuş Otomotiv Servis ve Ticaret A.Ş. Atatürk Mahallesi, Anadolu Caddesi, No:22, Şekerpınar, Çayırova/Kocaeli, TURKEY 37

38 Disclaimer Dogus Otomotiv Servis ve Ticaret A.S. (the DOAS ) has prepared this presentation documents (the Document ) consisting of documents and appendixes thereto for the sole purposes of providing information and projections and statements relating to the DOAS (the Information ). DOAS cannot guarantee the accuracy, adequacy, or completeness of such information, and cannot be responsible for the results. The Information is subject to change without any notice. Neither the Document nor the Information can construe any investment advise, or an offer to buy or sell DOAS shares. This Document and/or the Information cannot be copied, disclosed or distributed to any person other than the person to whom the Document and/or Information delivered or sent by DOAS or who required a copy of the same from the DOAS. Any and all information contained in this document are strictly confidential. 38