THE TRADE-OR-FADE METHOD:

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1 THE TRADE-OR-FADE METHOD: How to Trade Short-Term Using the Technical Analysis Spreadsheets and the Intra-day Support & Resistance by Scott Hoffman

2 The Trade or Fade Advisory The Trade or Fade Advisory was developed as a tool to determine a day s trend bias and likely support and resistance levels. It was designed to provide this information in a succinct, easy to read manner, allowing you to make quick, sound decisions for short term futures trading. Setting the Table The Trade or Fade Advisory service has two parts. The first part is the nightly Trade or Fade Strategy Bias Report. An example is shown below. This report is sent out nightly, and is designed to give you a heads up for the following trading day. The nightly report lists one of two potential trading biases for each market- either Trade or Fade. (hence the snappy name for the service!). I look at a number of market conditions to determine what a market s probable bias will be. The conditions that determine a Trade day involve some manner of range contraction-either the narrowest range of the past 4 days, a day with a range of 70% or less than the previous day s, or a doji bar. A Trade day bias means I m looking for the market to make a directional move for that trading 2

3 day. Traders have used a breakout of the previous day s high or low or a breakout of a set distance from the previous day s close. The morning Trade or Fade Advisory (to be discussed farther down) has a set of support and resistance levels based off the current day s open, and I look for breakouts of those levels to determine potential breakout points. I feel this is an inherent improvement to breakouts that only reference the previous day, because this method takes into account overnight movement. A Fade day occurs after a period of relatively high market volatility, measured as either the widest range of the previous four days, or a day with a range of 130% or greater than the previous day s range. On a Fade day, I look to sell against resistance or buy against support, anticipating that the market will revert to the mean. In addition, although it s not officially a condition, a market that closes at an extreme (high or low) of a trading range is often followed by a Fade day. A market that closes on an extreme of its trading range is also often a heads up for a potential gap opening the following day, which creates its own trade setups. The Trading Day Below is an example of a morning Trade or Fade sheet. The top bar of the sheet lists the commodity and the contract month. The colored bar below the commodity tells you whether to Trade or Fade. This bar will be green for a Trade day, red for a Fade day. The right section, Short-term Patterns, points out the market conditions I described above, which are the patterns I use to determine whether to Trade or Fade. A list explaining the abbreviations is at the end of this guide. 3

4 The left section, Support & Resistance, lists the day s Trade or Fade support levels for the trading day. The pivot is the (day session) opening, and often figures into my trading methods. The three support and resistance levels are determined by proprietary algorithms. They are based off the morning s open, and are wider or narrower depending on market volatility. Determining support and resistance off the morning s open allows you to take into account overnight news and activity, a big advantage over traditional pivot point analysis. Trade Days The example shown below shows the Trade or Fade sheet for the June S&P for May 17. The 17th was a trade day for S&Ps, as it was the narrowest trading range of the past four days. The guidelines for a Trade day are as follows: Look to buy a break above the first resistance level, or sell a break below the first support level. So for the 17th, I would enter a buy stop to buy (go long) the S&P on a move above R-1 ( ). On the other side, I would enter a sell stop to go short on a break below S2 ( ). When stopped into a trade, set the initial stop loss just past the pivot (open)-just above the pivot if short, just below the pivot if long. The ultimate profit objective for a buy is R3, the objective for a short sale is S3. Keep in mind; these are the ultimate profit targets; if a market makes a sharp move in your favor, then stalls out, especially around S2 or R2, don t be afraid to take a profit. The farther a market moves in your favor, the closer it may be to reversing! 4

5 Below is a 5 minute chart for the emini S&P for May 17th, drawn in Tradestation, showing the support and resistance levels. The brown line is the daily pivot, the green lines S1 and R-1, the blue lines are S2 and R2, the red lines S3 and R3. Note that after an initial failed rally, S&Ps fell to the first support, held for a bit, then proceeded to break through, quickly falling to the area of S3. At the time of the first test of S3 this trade showed a profit of approximately 10 points in roughly 25 minutes; this is a perfect example of when close is good enough. Following this selloff, S&Ps had a number of trading opportunities as it traded through broken support at R2 and R3. Although the late in the session the market made a new low for the day, I would have been satisfied with the first quick profit the market gave. Taking a quick profit both makes sure you hold on to your profits when you get them, and it frees you up to pursue other trades, either in the same market or others. Fade Days For the Fade day setup we ll look at June Crude Oil for May 19th. Although the trading range for May 18th was not especially wide, it showed a strong directional move, which gives a Fade bias the following day. On a Fade day, I look to buy against S1 or sell against R-1. The initial stop loss is set just beyond the next support level for a buy, or the next resistance level for a sell. The first profit target is the pivot, and if trading in a volatile market, you can use support or resistance points for targets. On a fade day, a market is often coming off a directional move, so I expect to see a day of consolidation, making a return to at least the open likely. 5

6 6

7 Above are both the May 19th Trade or Fade sheet and a 5 minute chart for June Crude Oil for May 18 and 19. The chart clearly shows the trading opportunities in Crude on the 19th, as moves to both S1 and R-1 were followed by a return to the pivot point (morning open). It s not every day you get two fade trades in the same market, but this was a good example (and trading) day. Opening Gaps There is one major exception to the Trade or Fade method. If we come into a day with a Fade Bias and market has an opening gap (either higher or lower), I change to a Trade trading strategy. The logic is that if a market gaps on the open, one of two things is likely. First, the market may move to fill in the opening gap, as those that bought the gap higher or sold the gap lower liquidate their trades as the gap doesn t see followthrough. (Larry Williams coined this the Oops Trade ). Second, the market may continue in the direction of the opening gap. Either way, a gap increases the odds of a directional move. As opening gaps increase the odds of a directional move, they make a Trade day strategy preferable. For example, if a market gaps higher, I would look to buy a rally over R-1 (a directional move in the direction of the gap) or a break under S1 (a selloff to fill in the opening gap; an Oops trade ). Trade or Fade Rules Trade Day bias rules: Look to buy a rally over R-1 or sell a break under S-1 If filled, set the initial stop loss on the other side of the daily pivot (morning open). The ultimate target is R-3 for a buy, S-3 for a sell. Watch the market s behavior around the second support and resistance, and be ready to take profits there, especially if the distance between first support/resistance and the second is wide. Fade Day bias rules: Sell a rally against R-1 or buy a break against R-1 If filled, set the stop loss just over R-2 for a sell or just under S-2 for a buy. The initial profit target is the daily pivot. Second profit target is R-1 for a buy, S-1 for a sell. If you have the opportunity, you can sell against R-2 or buy against S-2. If a market with a listed fade bias has an opening gap, use the Trade Rules 7

8 Trade or Fade Abbreviations NR4 The narrowest trading range of the past 4 days. WR4 The widest trading range of the past 4 days. ID An inside day; a day with a higher low and lower high than the preceding day. OD An outside day; a day with a higher high and lower low than the preceding day. Doji A day in which the open and close are close to each other. Gap A opening gap from the preceding day that remained open. Filled Gap A day which opens outside the previous day s range but closes back in the previous day s range Failed Gap A day which opens outside the previous day s range, fills in the gap, then closes outside the previous day s range. % of Previous Days Range Compares yesterday s trading range to the day preceding, a measure of volatility. % Above/Below 40-Day Avg. How far above or below the day s close was above or below the 40 day simple moving average, a measure of overbought or oversold conditions. 8

9 Disclaimer: This letter is strictly the opinion of its writer, and not necessarily those of Daniels Trading or its management, and is intended solely for informative purposes and is not to be construed, under any circumstances, by implication or otherwise, as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or trade in any commodities or securities herein named. Information is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Security futures are not suitable for all customers. Futures trading involves risks and may not be suitable for everyone. Past performance is not indicative of future results. HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FRE- QUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM. ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCES RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENER- ALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABIL- ITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKE TS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. 9

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