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4 CONSOLIDATION SIGNAL #1: FLAT 50 SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE The teacher of my very first Futures course taught me this. He said as simple as it is, it would be the best thing anyone ever taught me. Many years and many courses later I can say he was right! This one simple filter has kept me from giving back hard-won profits time after time. And when I ignored this rule, I did it to my peril (and loss of profits). Most of the best techniques in trading are deceivingly simple, and this is one of them. When the 50 simple moving average if FLAT, that means the market is flat, and that means your position should be flat! If it s flat, be flat, it s as simple as that! Below is a 2 minute chart of the S&P emini. You can see that when the 50 MA (the red line) goes flat, it s a clear indication that there is no trend in the market. 4

5 However, let s be careful of one thing. The filter we re using requires that the 50 MA has really flattened out. Therefore you must see that the moving average has gone flat for at least one entire cycle of the market. When the market turns, or reverses, the 50 MA will go flat very temporarily as it changes direction, but that is not the same as flattening out. See the next page for what happened after this 5

6 The 50 MA will have to be flat for a few bars when the trend is changing. Therefore this rule only applies when it has been flat for an entire cycle (use your favorite oscillator for measuring cycles). 6

7 CONSOLIDATION SIGNAL #2: USE TICK CHARTS Most people use time charts, meaning that each new bar is created after a certain period of time: 2 minutes, 5 minutes, 1 day, etc. Tick charts are charts that create a new bar after a certain number of TRADES are executed. A 100 tick chart starts a new bar whenever 100 trades go through and the 101 st trade comes in. In this way tick charts incorporate volume into the price pattern. But they also do something else very important that helps minimize the damage to your trading account during times of consolidation. During consolidation, volume tends to drop. Minute charts will continue to form new bars every minute, thus giving you long periods of consolidation on your chart and creating price patterns and indicator patterns you may be tempted to trade. Tick charts, however, print fewer bars during periods of low volume consolidation because they only print new bars when the designated number of trades are executed through the exchange. Therefore you don t see as much consolidation on your chart, thus removing some false signals and some temptation! On the next page is a comparison of the exact same 2 hour period as it looks on a 2 minute chart and a 500 tick chart of the eminis. Many times I m asked what the tick chart equivalent of a 2 minute chart would be. There is no equivalent since each bar on a tick chart will vary dramatically in their duration. However a tick chart of the ES like the one below can have bars that last for less than a minute during fast market conditions, to over 5 minutes in slow market conditions. 7

8 8

10 When the Advance/Decline line is meandering like it is above, it s considered flat. Why take any trades when there s no clear direction in the overall market? That would not be trading with the wind at your back. Too risky. This would not be a low risk time to trade in either direction. Choppy markets occur during times like this! 10

11 Many traders don t even look at this indicator. They re just looking at the charts they trade. You can have an edge over them. Let the amateurs try to buy the bottom over and over and over again! When you see the Advance/Decline line clearly trending down like this, you know which direction the wind is blowing. So why take any long trades? This can save you many losses and keep you on the right side of the market. 11

12 CONSOLIDATION SIGNAL #4: FLAT UP/DOWN VOLUME Here s another one of my favorites, and I don t know many people who use this. Hint: that s called an edge for you and me! It s the up/down volume. It measures the difference between the up volume and the down volume, as opposed to the difference between the number of issues up verses down. Again, it s available for both the NYSE and the NASDAQ. Every day this indicator (more properly it s a statistic ) begins at 0 because each day starts with no volume. The key is to watch the relationship of the bars to the zero line (I draw it in as a horizontal line on my chart). If the bars simple hover around the zero line, that s an indication that there isn t any strong commitment of traders in either direction today, and therefore you may have a choppy, trendless market or a trend that is in place is less likely to continue following through. Sometimes the Advance/Decline line will be trending, but if the Up/Down Volume is not trending, then be careful! There may be more issues going up than down, but there isn t volume to support the move! 12

13 There s no commitment of volume in either direction this morning. This indicates choppy weather conditions on the sea of trading. 13

14 To twist a quote out of context: You don t have to be a rocket surgeon to figure out what the low-risk trading direction is during this volume activity! 14

15 CONSOLIDATION SIGNAL #5: INTER-MARKET BIFURCATION The final sign of a potentially choppy market is when the major indices get out of alignment. If you re trading the DOW, or a DOW stock, and it s trending up nicely, but the NASDAQ is negative for the day, the NASDAQ may have a negative pull on the DOW and hinder its ability to continue trending. You want to watch to see if the markets are splitting any of the following levels: 1. Yesterday s Close MA 3. Central Pivot Splitting any of these 3 levels, means that one of the four markets is above and another is below. For example, if the S&P is above its close from yesterday, but the NASDAQ is below its close from yesterday, then the overall market condition would be considered bifurcated. Another example: If the DOW is above its Central Pivot, but the S&P is below its Central Pivot, then the overall market condition is considered bifurcated. Although one market will always be stronger than another market, the strongest trending days usually occur when all 4 of these markets are clearly bullish or bearish. When the markets all move together, they move more freely and tend to follow-through more sometimes trending in one direction for the entire day. To measure this I recommend using 2, 3 or 5 minute charts of these 4 markets. You don t need any indicators other than the 50 MA, and a horizontal line for yesterday s close and the Central Pivot. Simply having these 3 things on those 4 charts makes it very clear when the markets are all committed to the same direction, and when there is a laggard that can be a spoiler for the other markets. I also like to have a quote screen with the following markets at the top: S&P Russell DOW NASDAQ NDX ES ER2 (or AB) YM NQ Notice I m watching both the Cash and Futures markets. On the quote screen I include a column for Net Change from yesterday s close. This allows me to see in an instant if the markets are aligned with yesterday s close. 15

16 If they re all red, then they re all below yesterday s close. If they re all green, then they re all above yesterday s close. If some are red and some are green, then the markets are bifurcated. Again, it s important to have all 4 major markets represented by both the cash and futures because sometimes you ll see that the cash and futures markets are splitting yesterday s close which is also a type of bifurcation! In the quote window below, all the markets are aligned to the downside, with all of them below their respective yesterday s lows for both Cash and Futures. 16

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