Prospect for PV Industry over coming 12/18 months

Transcription

1 Prospect for PV Industry over coming 12/18 months Ric Brazzale, July 2013 CEW 2013 PV Market Developments

2 Contents 1. Solar PV market declining 2. Currently tracking to meet the 2013 STC target 3. STC price and Clearing House 4. Bright spots on horizon 5. Dark spots on horizon 2

3 Who is Green Energy Trading? One of largest independent environmental certificate creator Operate in STC,LGC and Energy Efficiency markets Accredited for commercial lighting and other activities in NSW & VIC Created certificates for more than 800 solar and energy efficiency businesses over last 12 months Our team in Hawthorn Research, consultancy and advisory associate (Green Energy Markets) Check out website for prices, research notes and other market information

4 PV systems creating STCs declining 60,000 PV Systems creating RECs Systems creating certificates 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 - Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 4

5 PV systems creating STCs declining 60,000 PV Systems creating RECs Poly. (PV Systems creating RECs) Systems creating certificates 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 - Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 5

6 PV systems creating STCs declining 60,000 PV Systems creating RECs Qld PV Systems Systems creating certificates 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 - Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 6

7 PV systems creating STCs declining 60,000 PV Systems creating RECs Qld PV Systems Qld % 60% Systems creating certificates 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Queensland market share - Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May %

8 PV systems creating STCs All states except Qld in decline for last 6-12 mths surge in Qld due to SBS 8

9 High PV saturation rates 35% Qld and SA have impressive level of installs Proportion of suitable dwellings 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 12% 14% 6% 28% 30% 9% 12% 21% 18% 0% ACT NSW NT QLD SA TAS VIC WA Australia Source: CER Postcode data (systems submitted as at 5 April 2013) system price history (<5kW) Suitable dwellings = owner occupied detached and semi-detached homes 9

10 We are tracking to meet STC target 10

11 Outlook for solar PV and SWH under STC Scheme Our assessment based on data modelling report for the CER (Feb 2013) 11

12 Commercial market growing but from a low base Commercial market offers attractive paybacks but is hard Suffers from barriers similar to energy efficiency activities Source: Green Energy Markets Data Modelling Report (Feb 2013) 12

13 CER needs to release target by 31 March and will also release Non-binding estimates to keep market informed 13 Tracking to the STC Target is STC Target is self-correcting Target for year comprises: For 2013 Estimate of the number of STCs to be created in the year + The excess/surplus STCs from the previous year 20.7 million 15.0 million Total of 35.7 million

14 Will we meet the 2013 target? Record to date of setting STC target is terrible 22.5m oversupply in 2011 (80% over) 15.0m oversupply in 2012 (67% over) What is different now? Don t have multiplier FiTs substantially reduced System prices have bottomed? 14

15 Tracking to meet the 2013 Target At current rate expecting surplus of 5m STCs by end Oct Currently 3.2m STCs in Clearing House 15

16 STC prices have recovered as creation has fallen (from 1 Jan 2012) In 2013 we are tracking 6% above weekly target (422k cf: 398k) Same time in 2012 we were 75% above weekly target 16

17 Level of STCs in Clearing House has fallen as STC price has increased STCs queued in Clearing House (since 1 Jan 2011) 17

18 Where will STC price go? As surplus gets absorbed we expect that price will get close to $40 (currently $38 so nearly there) Will depend on level of STC supply we are more than half way through the year and are tracking to the target Maintaining current creation rate will likely see the Clearing House coming into play by October surrender 18

19 Bright spots on horizon New home market (130k new homes built each year) Million solar roofs (Opposition policy focus on low income households) PV for businesses (longer purchase cycle) Financing as PV becomes mainstream Energy efficiency (LED lights certificate schemes) 19

20 Dark clouds on horizon Connection costs (network charges) for PV Weakening $A GST (ATO audits) RET Review and removal of carbon price (in event Opposition forms government) 20

21 Conclusion Solar PV market to decline in 2013 and into 2014 which will likely result in industry rationalisation Political uncertainty remains around the RET review and additional support measures for solar (Opposition million solar roofs) STC market will likely operate as it was designed and we will likely see the Clearing House come into play 21

22 Thank you Presented by: Ric Brazzale BComm, MBA Managing Director T or ric.brazzale@greenenergytrading.com.au greenenergytrading.com.au