Larry Hartig Commissioner Alaska Department of Environmental Conservation February 26, 2008

Transcription

1 Larry Hartig Commissioner Alaska Department of Environmental Conservation February 26, 2008

2 Arctic average temperature has risen at almost twice the rate as the rest of the world in the past few decades. Widespread melting of glaciers and sea ice and rising permafrost temperatures present additional evidence of strong arctic warming. These changes in the Arctic provide an early indication of the environmental and societal significance of global warming. [Executive Summary, Impacts of a Warming Arctic, Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, Cambridge University Press 2004]

3 Impacts we are already seeing from a warming environment include: Increased damage to coastal communities from storms and sea surges, made more vulnerable as a result of less and thinner sea ice, which use to provide natural protection from fall storms; Failing support for buildings, roads, runways and other infrastructure due to melting permafrost; Increases in the number and severity of forest fires relating to insect stress and drier conditions; Changes in the habitats and the distribution of marine and terrestrial species; Increased risks of fuel spills and other accidents from increased shipping and other activity in the Arctic and Aleutians resulting from less sea ice and better access; and Increased threats from invasive species.

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5 Top 1979 Arctic Sea Ice Extent Bottom 2005 Arctic Sea Ice Extent

6 This image compares the average sea ice extent for September 2007 to September 2005; the magenta line indicates the long-term median from 1979 to September 2007 sea ice extent was 4.28 million square kilometers (1.65 million square miles), compared to 5.57 million square kilometers (2.14 million square miles) in September This image is from the NSIDC Sea Ice Index. [National Snow and Ice Data Center]

7 Kivalina

8 Kivalina

9 Kivalina Measurements As of 10/20/06 Connex School 150 feet 50 feet

10 Kivalina

11 Kivalina Ice Bound

12 Shishmaref, where the coastline has eroded feet in the past 30 years.

13 Shishmaref

14 Shishmaref

15 Shishmaref house after storm.

16 Shishmaref House relocation

17 Newtok

18 Newtok

19 Bluff undercutting

20 Bluff Undercutting

21 Bluff Erosion 3

22 Waste Spread by Flooding

23 Storm Surge Board Walk Damage

24 Port Heiden

25 Port Heiden

26 Melting permafrost causes roads to heave, increasing maintenance costs.

27 A home in Fairbanks, Alaska seriously damaged by melting permafrost.

28 Estimating Future Costs for Alaska Public Infrastructure at Risk from Climate Change Prepared by Peter Larsen and Scott Goldsmith, Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER), UAA Orson Smith, Civil Engineering Department, UAA Meghan Wilson, ISER, UAA Ken Strzepek, University of Colorado at Boulder Paul Chinowsky, University of Colorado at Boulder Ben Saylor, ISER, UAA Sponsored by University of Alaska Foundation National Commission on Energy Policy, Washington D.C. Alaska Conservation Foundation, Anchorage, Alaska Rural Alaska Community Action Program, Anchorage, Alaska June 2007 Institute of Social and Economic Research University of Alaska Anchorage 3211 Providence Drive, Anchorage, Alaska

29 Even without climate change, the costs of maintaining and replacing federal, state, and local infrastructure in Alaska are considerable an estimated $32 billion between now and 2030 and $56 billion between now and Damage from climate change could add $3.6 billion to $6.1 billion to infrastructure costs between now and 2030 and $5.6 billion to $7.6 billion between now and 2080, depending on the level of climate change and assuming that government agencies adapt infrastructure to changing conditions. Not all areas of Alaska or types of infrastructure will be equally affected by climate change. The damage will be concentrated in areas where permafrost thaws, flooding increases, and coastal erosion gets worse. Extra infrastructure costs in the next 25 years will mostly be for maintaining or replacing roads, airport runways, and water and sewer systems.

30 Reddish-brown needles indicate spruce beetle killed forest, southcentral Alaska.

31 Beetle killed spruce trees readily ignite.

32 Interior Alaska June Photo by MODIS Fire Imagery, University of Alaska Fairbankshttp://ion.gina.alaska.edu/fire/FIRE_IMAGERY_FULL_COLOR/

33 South Fairbanks June 28, Air quality particulate level at approximately 900 ug/m 3 Photos by Dr. James Conner, FNSB South Fairbanks July 6, Air quality particulate level at approximately 10 ug/m 3

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35 Arctic Ocean Shipping Routes

36 The opening of Arctic poses additional risks, including: Increased risks of accidents resulting in spills of fuel and other hazardous materials; Increased need for other emergency response capability to avoid risks to life and ships; Increased need to patrol U.S. border to protect national interests, including fisheries.

37 Neither the federal or state government is in a very good position to meet these needs: There are a lack of deep water ports and harbors of refuge along the western and northern coasts of Alaska; There is little emergency response capability in the area no ocean tugs or ice breakers stationed in the Arctic or any permanent Coast Guard station; Foreign ships are sailing under the international rules of innocent passage, and, as such, do not have either federal or state oil-spill contingency plans or a certificate of financial responsibility to pay for any mess they may create; Lack of monitoring of ships passing through the Arctic; and Relatively less knowledge and capability to respond to spills in broken ice conditions.

38 What is being done in Alaska? Alaska Climate Change Sub-Cabinet Immediate Action Workgroup Newtok Planning Group Webpage.htm Alaska Climate Impact Assessment Commission

39 Newtok Planning Group Newtok, Winter 1967

40 There are challenges in going forward, including: The costs of relocation or protection structures are very high in the most at-risk villages of Kivalina, Newtok and Shishmaref, a technical analysis study in 2006 found each has years before erosion impacts critical infrastructure, and the cost to move each village would range from $80 million to $200 million; There are other communities, besides the five mentioned, that are at risk from coastal erosion, flooding and wild land fires. A 2004 U.S. General Accountability Office study identified 184 out of 213 Native Alaskan villages that experience some level of flooding or erosion; Villages want to maintain their cultural identity and traditional way of life wherever they move, which largely precludes joining existing communities, particularly regional hubs and larger cities; Villages don t have the funds or other means to explore alternatives on their own, or to compete for limited federal and state funds;

41 There are challenges in going forward, including: By and large, federal emergency funding prioritizes areas of greater population and addressing the aftermath of disasters; There is a lack of funds for planning, relocation and building structures to prevent disasters; Federal, and to a lesser degree State agencies, have difficulty agreeing on priorities and melding funding streams to address coastal erosion and flooding risks in a coordinated, efficient way. There is no lead federal agency. Compliance with NEPA requirements can slow response to immediate risks. Long-term sustainability of rural Alaska communities most be considered in the analysis of alternatives will the community be able to afford to maintain and replace the public infrastructure over the long-term? The uncertainty of predictions in sea rise, sea ice, erosion, permafrost melting, flooding and forest fires.

42 Alaska The Last Frontier The End