Future job market prospects and requirements for skilled human resources in the context of ASEAN integration

Transcription

1 Future job market prospects and requirements for skilled human resources in the context of ASEAN integration Tokyo, Japan 13 December 214 Yoshiteru Uramoto Regional Director and Assistant Director-General ILO Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific Decent Work for All ASIAN DECENT WORK DECADE

2 Overview ASEAN labour market trends and prospects ASEAN integration: labour market prospects Looking forward: Areas for action

3 Note: ages 15+. Source: ADB and ILO: ASEAN Community 215: Managing integration for better jobs and shared prosperity (Bangkok, ILO, 214), Annex F. Employment growth remains uneven Change in employment, (s & %) 5 4 Change in s (left axis) Change in % (right axis) ASEAN Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Viet Nam reflecting varied factors including population growth, labour market structure and economic demand. -2.

4 Note: Youth ages Source: ADB and ILO: ASEAN Community 215: Managing integration for better jobs and shared prosperity (Bangkok, ILO, 214), Annex F. particularly for young jobseekers Total and youth unemployment rates, latest available year (%) 25 Total Youth ASEAN Cambodia Indonesia Lao PDR Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Viet Nam who are 3 times more likely to be unemployed than adults partly due to mismatch between education and industry.

5 while poor job quality is pervasive Vulnerable employment rate, latest available year (%) Singapore Malaysia Philippines Indonesia Thailand Viet Nam Cambodia Lao PDR ASEAN reflecting widespread vulnerability and informality, with limited social and legal protection. Note: Vulnerable employment is defined as own-account and contributing family workers. Source: ADB and ILO: ASEAN Community 215: Managing integration for better jobs and shared prosperity (Bangkok, ILO, 214), Annex F.

6 including for women, who typically earn less and face other labour market disparities. Source: ADB and ILO: ASEAN Community 215: Managing integration for better jobs and shared prosperity (Bangkok, ILO, 214), Annex F. and wages remain low Average monthly wages (US$), and gap between male-female wages (%), Lao PDR Cambodia Indonesia Viet Nam Philippines Thailand Malaysia Singapore -1 Average monthly wage, US$ (left axis) Male-female gap, % (right axis)

7 Overview ASEAN labour market trends and prospects ASEAN integration: labour market prospects Looking forward: Areas for action

8 ASEAN Economic Community Employment change under the AEC relative to baseline in 225 (s and % of total employment) 7 6 Change in s, male (left axis) Change in s, female (left axis) Change in % of total employment (right axis) Cambodia Viet Nam Philippines Thailand Lao PDR Indonesia could accelerate economic growth, trade and investment, and create an additional 14 million jobs. Source: ADB and ILO: ASEAN Community 215: Managing integration for better jobs and shared prosperity (Bangkok, ILO, 214),Annex F.

9 Note: Sex-disaggregate figures may not add up to total due to rounding; the seven occupations refer to accountants, architects, dentists, engineers, medical doctors, nurses and midwives, and surveyors. Source: ADB and ILO: ASEAN Community 215: Managing integration for better jobs and shared prosperity (Bangkok, ILO, 214),Annex F. AEC provisions on skilled labour mobility Employment in the seven occupations covered by ASEAN MRAs, various years Employment in the seven occupations (thousand) Share of seven occupations in total employment (%) Total Male Female Total Male Female Cambodia (212) Lao PDR (21) Viet Nam (212) Indonesia (21) Philippines (211) Thailand (21) will likely have little impact on current migration trends, which are mainly low- and medium-skilled.

10 Source: ADB and ILO: ASEAN Community 215: Managing integration for better jobs and shared prosperity (Bangkok, ILO, 214). Philippines: labour market prospects Simulated change in employment by skill level under AEC, 225 (s and %) High Medium Low Change under baseline in thousand (left axis) Total change in per cent (right axis) Additional change under AEC in thousand (left axis) demand for both high-skilled and low-skilled employment could increase about 6 per cent by 225.

11 Source: ADB and ILO: ASEAN Community 215: Managing integration for better jobs and shared prosperity (Bangkok, ILO, 214). Philippines: trends and challenges 1 Share of respondents who agree that skills of graduates match enterprise needs by level of education (%) 8 Recent K-12 legislation. 6 4 Further efforts needed to address out-of-school children. 2 Philippines Secondary education Tertiary education Vocational education/training Need for smoother classroom-toworkplace transition.

12 Source: ADB and ILO: ASEAN Community 215: Managing integration for better jobs and shared prosperity (Bangkok, ILO, 214). Thailand: labour market prospects Simulated change in employment by skill level under AEC, 225 (s and %) High Med. Low Thailand -3 Change under baseline in thousand (left axis) Total change in per cent (right axis) Additional change under AEC in thousand (left axis) greatest impacts on medium-skilled jobs, which could otherwise decrease under the baseline scenario.

13 Source: ADB and ILO: ASEAN Community 215: Managing integration for better jobs and shared prosperity (Bangkok, ILO, 214). Thailand: trends and challenges In 225, more than half of high skilled jobs could be filled by underqualified workers. Thai students more than one year behind OECD counterparts in science and math. Ageing could exacerbate skills gap. High-skill manufacturing requires qualified workforce, particularly in science, technology and mathematics. Need for hard and soft skills development.

14 Source: ADB and ILO: ASEAN Community 215: Managing integration for better jobs and shared prosperity (Bangkok, ILO, 214). Indonesia: labour market prospects Simulated change in employment by skill level under AEC, 225 (s and %) High Medium Low Change under baseline in thousand (left axis) Total change in per cent (right axis) Additional change under AEC in thousand (left axis) high-skilled employment growth in Indonesia could account for half of the potential growth in ASEAN. -2

15 Source: ADB and ILO: ASEAN Community 215: Managing integration for better jobs and shared prosperity (Bangkok, ILO, 214). Indonesia: trends and challenges 6 Share of respondents who agree the skills of graduates match enterprise needs by level of education (%) 4 Improvements in education to meet current and future demand. 2 Responsive skills development system. Indonesia Foster collaboration with employers. Secondary education Tertiary education Vocational education/training Engage in dialogue.

16 Source: ADB and ILO: ASEAN Community 215: Managing integration for better jobs and shared prosperity (Bangkok, ILO, 214). Priority sectors for development and jobs Selected priority development sectors in Indonesia, Philippines and Thailand Indonesia Philippines Thailand Agriculture Food and beverages Transport and infrastructure Agro-industry Information technology and business process management Construction and logistics Agriculture Automotive and electronics Tourism and hospitality

17 Source: D. Lythe: Assessment of the readiness of ASEAN Member States for implementation of the commitment to the free flow of skilled labour within the AEC from 215, Tripartite Action for the Protection and Promotion of the Rights of Migrant Workers (ASEAN TRIANGLE Project) (Bangkok, ILO, 214). Promoting freer movement of labour A regional framework will serve as a translation device among national systems. Promotion of freer movement of skilled labour in the AEC, through Mutual Recognition Arrangements (MRAs). An ASEAN Qualifications Reference Framework (AQRF): One qualification structure; or Relating all national structures. ASEAN enhances mobility of skilled labour through QRF (Oct. 214)

18 Overview ASEAN labour market trends and prospects ASEAN integration: labour market prospects Looking forward: Areas for action

19 Areas for action Social protection to ensure access to education. Increase funding opportunities for education. Simplify visa process for student exchange. Improve education and training systems: responsive and modern TVET; public-private partnership to anticipate future skill demands; develop apprenticeship systems; improve relevance of tertiary institutions; strengthen skills recognition and certification.

20 THANK YOU Yoshiteru Uramoto Regional Director and Assistant Director-General ILO Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific Decent Work for All ASIAN DECENT WORK DECADE