Reducing Natural Hazard Risks in New Residential Developments

Transcription

1 Reducing Natural Hazard Risks in New Residential Developments Dan Sandink, MA, MScPl Manager, Resilient Communities & Research Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction CHBA Urban Council Ottawa Oct. 24, 2013

2 What is ICLR? Founded in 1997 by Canadian P&C industry Current focus on: Key hazards: Urban flooding, wildland fire, wind, earthquake Key risk reduction avenues: Infrastructure, land-use planning, home retrofits and new homes Multi-disciplinary Engineering, climatology, seismology, economics, political science, geography, planning

3 Trends in homeowner claims 1970 to 2009 (Canada) 60% 40% Proportion of water and wind claims 20% Proportion of fire claims 0% Source: ICLR based on data from IBC

4 Recent large loss events Mississauga, Brampton, Toronto, 2013: >$850 million Southern AB: $1.7 billion (mostly commercial) Thunder Bay, Montréal, Ottawa, Hamilton, Toronto, Steinbach, 2012: >$350 million Hamilton, 2009: $ million Southern Ontario, 2005: >$500 million Peterborough, 2004: $87 million Edmonton, 2004: $166 million MANY OTHERS! IBC, 2012: $1.7 billion average insured water damages per year in Canada

5 Average water damage claims Province Increase: British Columbia 154% Ontario 136% Alberta 109% NFLD/Labrador 107% Quebec 84% Nova Scotia 61% New Brunswick 50% National average 117% 2002 average: $7, average: $15,500 Use of basements as living spaces Source: Aviva Canada, 2013:

6 ICLR s Five Year Plan Infrastructure Planning New homes Retrofit Wildland fire Earthquake Wind Lower priority Urban flood

7 Riverine flooding 2013 southern Alberta flood most expensive flood disaster in Canadian history For P&C insurers: 1998 Ice Storm: ~$1.9 billion 2013 Alberta floods: ~$1.7 billion limited home claims 2013 GTA storm: ~$850 million 2011 Slave Lake wildland fire: $700 million 2005 GTA storm: >$500 million Image: Global News, 2013

8 The risk was unprecedented, but the hazard was not Maximum Water Discharge in the Bow River at Calgary between $830 million on engineered works in S. Alberta: The conventional wisdom on flood mitigation is you keep the people away from the water, not the other way around. Ed Watt (Ottawa Citizen, Oct. 2013) Source: WaterSMART Alberta, 2013

9 Floodplain regulation policy Hydraulic floodway Geographic floodway Hydraulic floodway Hydraulic floodway Floodway based on probability Source: Kovacs & Sandink, 2013

10 Floodplain regulation: Ontario vs. Alberta Regulatory flood hazard Ontario 1 in 100, Timmins Storm, Hurricane Hazel Alberta 1 in 100 Floodway 1 in 100 Hydraulic Flood fringe Floodway regulation Flood fringe regulation Local authority Trends One & two zone (outside of 1 in 100, or b/w 1 in 100 and local regulation) You shall not develop the floodway (unless SPA) Building with mitigation measures Conservation authorities Floodplain regulation eroding pressure to develop Two zone (areas not considered floodway, filled in) You should not develop the floodway Building with mitigation measures Municipalities 2013 flood is focussing event some strengthening of regulation

11 The impacts of Hurricane Hazel Hurricane Hazel was Ontario s focussing event Moved away from arbitrary return period to (arbitrary) historical event Brown et al., 1997: Ontario vs. Michigan (comparable regions) Rainstorms and flooding in Aug.-Sept Ontario: Floodplain building restrictions since the 1950s Michigan: Focus on floodproofing structures, NFIP In Ontario: $480,300 (non-ag.) damages In Michigan: $203,266,890 (non-ag.) damages Toronto and Region Conservation Authority. (2010). Flood Protection.

12 The importance of regulation Changes in Number and Total Value of Properties in Sainte-Eustache By and large, the public does not understand flood risk! Public strongly favours structural works (e.g., 62% of Albertans favour proposed flood structures) Robert et al. 2003

13 Impacts of climate change Simonovic et al. 2011

14 Current flood maps do not account for urban flood risk City of Peterborough, 2005; Prodanovic & Simonovic, 2007

15 Overland flood insurance issues Overland flood is not insured in Canada -- not the case in many other developed nations Primary reasons: Adverse selection Lack of randomness Size of the insured community Assessment of hazard (e.g., flood plain maps) Water damage coverage a hot topic in P&C industry Policy holder confusion: ~70% think they re insured for flood Image: Global News, 2013 Sandink et al., 2010

16 Conclusion ICLR work will progress over the next few years with an emphasis on wind and urban flood Alberta issues: Limited consideration of urban flood risk, flood fringe rebuilding practices Insurance implications of continued increase in disaster risk Climate change combined with wealth, density, population, changing use of homes, aging infrastructure