GE Energy Financial Services

Transcription

1 GE Energy Financial Services Infocast ERCOT Market Summit 2014 Perspectives on Financing ERCOT Projects John D Jones February 25, 2014

2 GE Capital GE Capital Americas Corporate lending Equipment lending and leasing Healthcare financial services Industrial loan corporation GE Capital International Corporate lending Equipment lending and leasing Healthcare financial services Mubadala JV GE Real Estate Debt and equity financing Asset and investment management GE Commercial Aviation Services Commercial aircraft lending and leasing Airport facility project financing GE Energy Financial Services Energy equity, debt and structured solutions GE Retail Finance Private label credit cards Retail sales finance Federal savings bank 2

3 $18B assets, 220 investments $25B in volume since 2004 Across energy spectrum Renewables Power Midstream Oil & Gas Across capital structure Financing & Investing Renewable Energy 33% Oil & Gas, Midstream 25% Thermal Power 43% Across geographies North America, Europe, Latin America, Australia, India Debt 24% Going strong for 30+ years core to GE Equity 76% Sept 2013 exposure 3

4 We re big in Texas More than $4 billion invested more than any other state Equity and debt for 4,300+ MW of wind farms Equity and debt for 6,100+ MW of thermal power plants Equity in partnerships producing 6,500+ barrels of oil equivalent a day Debt and equity for natural gas midstream and clean energy technology companies 4

5 Financing Wind in ERCOT 5

6 Wind in ERCOT Wind development in ERCOT is a great success story Completion of CREZ has greatly reduced curtailment and negative pricing for existing projects, and opened the door for new ones over 4 GW of new generation expected in 2014 Wind turbine technology development has greatly increased production, driving down production cost Provided over 30 GWh (11%) of ERCOT s energy in 2013 Supported over 10,000 direct and indirect jobs in Texas Source: ERCOT, AWEA 6

7 ERCOT Wind Build Source: Ventyx Velocity Suite, January 2014 release 7

8 Current Operating Wind Wind development focused in the West Zone, leading to curtailment of 17% of potential energy in 2009 Source: Ventyx Velocity Suite, January 2014 release, AWEA 8

9 CREZ Transmission Projects CREZ - $7B in transmission opening the way for up to 18 GW of wind to move from the West Zone east Operating Plants CREZ lines 9 Source: Ventyx Velocity Suite, January 2014 release; PUCT CREZ Transmission Program Information Center s January 2014 Quarterly Report

10 Wind Under Construction CREZ extended ERCOTs reach further into the Texas Panhandle Operating Plants Under Construction Source: Ventyx Velocity Suite, January 2014 release 10

11 Additional Potential Wind Turbine technology advances have lead to significant development in the South Zone as well Operating Plants Under Construction Potential Wind * Source: Ventyx Velocity Suite, January 2014 release * Potential = Permitted, Proposed, and Pending projects 11

12 Typical Merchant Wind Financing Example MW wind project Energy hedge P99 volume, but at a fixed shape 12 years Total project cost - $200 M Sponsor equity 50%, with potential back leverage Tax equity, monetizing the PTC 50% Other financing considerations Exposure to unhedged volumes Potential locational basis risk 12

13 Financing Challenges for Wind Developing and financing incremental wind generation faces a number of challenges Expiration of the Production Tax Credit Availability of Tax Equity Market concentration concerns Satisfaction with sponsor s commencement of physical work of a significant nature in 2013 Extension of the PTC? Ability to sell the power or enter into financial hedges 13

14 Financing Thermal Generation in ERCOT 14

15 Thermal Generation in ERCOT What will drive new generation construction in ERCOT? IPPs building in anticipation of tight reserve margins Low cost expansions at existing sites Highly efficient CCGTs at new sites Load serving entities building to protect against potential energy shortfalls during price spikes Adoption of a capacity market Source: ERCOT, AWEA 15

16 Gas Fired Power Under Construction Over 3 GW of gas fired projects are currently under construction Panda Sherman 720 MW LCRA Ferguson 570 MW Panda Temple 1,497 MW STEC Red Gate 225 MW Source: Ventyx Velocity Suite, January 2014 release 16

17 Permitted and Pending Thermal Over 15 GW of projects have been permitted, or are in process Permitted Pending Source: Ventyx Velocity Suite, January 2014 release 17

18 Typical Merchant CCGT Financing Example 1,000 MW CCGT Energy hedge Revenue floor or heat rate call option At least 5 years Total project cost - $1B Sponsor equity 45 to 55% Debt 45 to 55% Either bank market or Term B Tenor 5 to 7 years Recent rates L to L Other debt considerations Amortization schedule Draw schedule/negative carry Prepayment penalties 18

19 Financing Challenges for Thermal Generation Developing and financing independent thermal generation faces a number of challenges Ability to sell the power or enter into financial hedges Gap between forward markets and revenue requirements of new generation ( missing money ) Market structure focuses margin into a few key hours Growing wind compresses margins in non-peak hours Outage risk becomes a key consideration 19

20 Impact of Wind on Energy Pricing Current wind at 20% of nameplate Min Load Median Load Peak Load 20% of current - $25/MWh 20% of current - $39/MWh 20% of current - $64/MWh Source: Ventyx Velocity Suite, January 2014 release, GE EFS analysis 20

21 Impact of Wind on Energy Pricing Current wind at 75% off nameplate Min Load Median Load Peak Load 20% of current - $25/MWh 75% of current - $22/MWh 20% of current - $39/MWh 75% of current - $37/MWh 20% of current - $64/MWh 75% of current - $59/MWh Source: Ventyx Velocity Suite, January 2014 release, GE EFS analysis 21

22 Impact of Wind on Energy Pricing Current wind and wind under construction at 75% off nameplate Min Load Median Load Peak Load 20% of current - $25/MWh 75% of current - $22/MWh + construction - $20/MWh 20% of current - $39/MWh 75% of current - $37/MWh + construction - $34/MWh 20% of current - $64/MWh 75% of current - $59/MWh + construction - $55/MWh Source: Ventyx Velocity Suite, January 2014 release, GE EFS analysis 22

23 Conclusions How will new generation be financed in ERCOT? Wind is booming, but faces a number of challenges after 2014 Expiring PTC Limited hedge counterparties Tighter tax equity markets Gas fired generation will be built, but faces challenges as well Growing pressure on non-peak energy margins Strong debt markets, but limited appetite for merchant exposure Market structure uncertainty GE EFS will continue to invest in Texas Source: ERCOT, AWEA 23

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