INVESTING IN A CLEAN FUTURE. Austin Energy s Resource, Generation and Climate Protection Plan to 2020 Update

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1 INVESTING IN A CLEAN FUTURE Austin Energy s Resource, Generation and Climate Protection Plan to 2020 Update

2 ABOUT AUSTIN ENERGY Austin Energy is the nation s eighth largest publicly owned electric utility and a department of the City of Austin. The utility provides electricity to more than 420,000 customers and a population of almost one million inside the city of Austin and surrounding communities. Austin Energy s mission is to deliver clean, affordable, reliable energy and excellent customer service. Austin s renewable energy goals are among the most progressive in the United States and Austin Energy ranks first among Texas utilities for green power sales. Austin Energy also offers some of the most comprehensive energy efficiency programs in America that have resulted in significant peak demand savings. Since 1990, the Austin population has grown by 80 percent, yet Austin Energy has reduced the production of conventional generating resources of coal, nuclear and natural gas by 1.5 percent or 31 megawatts (MW). This has been accomplished through aggressive demand side management programs and an increase in renewable energy and market resources. Williamson County Shared Service Area Hays County AUSTIN ENERGY SERVICE AREA Austin City Limits Travis County 1

3 Austin Energy Goals Austin is committed to climate action and sustainability. The City of Austin created the Austin Climate Protection Plan (ACPP) in 2007 to guide the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions through In 2010, Austin Energy expanded the utility s ACPP goals, and in 2013 the Austin City Council voted to achieve the previously adopted 200 MW solar goal using 100 MW of local solar. GOAL Reduce carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) power plant emissions 20 percent below 2005 levels by GOAL Achieve 35 percent renewable energy resources by 2020, including 200 MW of solar. As part of the solar goal, 100 MW will come from solar generated in the Austin Energy service area, and at least 50 MW will be located at customer homes and businesses. GOAL Achieve additional 800 MW of peak demand savings through energy efficiency and demand side management by Total CO 2 emitting capacity is nearly the same as it was in CO 2 emissions were 17 percent lower than 2005 levels CO 2 per kwh of electricity was 14 percent lower than 2005 emission rate. Exploring options to reduce dependence on the coal-fired Fayette Power Project in LaGrange, Texas. On track to meet 35 percent goal as early as 2016, four years ahead of schedule. Planning is under way for local community solar to encourage solar subscriptions by residential customers who are unable to install rooftop systems. Affordability Objectives Austin Energy is committed to an affordability goal that aims to keep its rates in the lower 50th percentile of Texas retail rates. As part of this goal, annual rate changes should not exceed two percent. Austin Energy anticipates achieving the 800 MW goal of peak demand savings by Between 2007 and 2013, Austin Energy has achieved 371 MW of peak demand savings, which is almost half of the 800 MW goal. Public Participation Austin Energy s goals have been charted, and the utility is seeking public input on the best strategy for achieving those goals. Austin Energy will use community feedback to develop multiple generation scenarios and submit a recommendation to the Austin City Council for near- and long-term power supply options. Stakeholder meetings will be held in early 2014 and public comments are accepted online at Timeline* 1 QUARTER 2 QUARTER 3 QUARTER Targeted briefings and stakeholder input meetings Select scenarios to study *Schedule is subject to change Run and analyze scenario results Present preliminary recommendations to Council Committee on Austin Energy Council Committee on Austin Energy and Electric Utility Commission review/approval Present final resource plan update to Austin City Council 2

4 ERCOT Electric Wholesale Market Austin Energy is part of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) that manages 85 percent of the electric load in Texas. Austin Energy s customers represent approximately four percent of ERCOT s load. Unlike other U.S. energy markets that also include a capacity market, ERCOT operates an energy-only market which means that generators are paid only for the energy they produce. ERCOT operates a Nodal Market that provides a competitive marketplace for buying and selling wholesale power. Generating units in ERCOT are dispatched in real time based on the lowest total cost of generation, taking system constraints into account. ERCOT also runs a day-ahead market that allows buyers and sellers of electricity to voluntarily hedge risk by buying power at the dayahead price rather than the real-time market price. Austin Energy is a full participant in the ERCOT wholesale market and strives to maximize the value of its resources while minimizing cost and risk. ERCOT works to ensure there is sufficient generation by forecasting needs and procuring adequate power generation and demand side resources, plus reserves to protect against unexpected generator and transmission outages and/or unexpected spikes in demand. When demand is high and supply is low, market prices can become very expensive. To address recent concerns about sufficient generation in the ERCOT region, the Public Utility Commission of Texas (PUC) adopted rules to raise the market price from $3,000 to $5,000 effective June 2013; $7,000 effective June 2014; and $9,000 beginning in June The PUC authorized the increased prices in an effort to incentivize investment in new power plants and demand response. Discussion is under way regarding the development of a Mandatory Reserve Margin (MRM) that may potentially lead to a Centralized Capacity Market (CCM). With a MRM, utilities would be required to ensure they have a specified level of capacity available. This could be achieved with a capacity market whereby utilities are paid for the ability to generate energy (capacity) whether it is generated or not, in addition to the energy produced. Austin Energy Existing Generation Austin Energy has a diverse generation and purchased power portfolio of more than 3,500 MW. This diverse mix of energy powered by wind, solar, biomass, natural gas, nuclear and coal helps Austin Energy control costs and manage power plant emissions. Currently, approximately 20 percent of Austin s electricity comes from renewable energy resources, mainly wind power. That figure is expected to grow to 35 percent by 2020 or sooner. CONVENTIONAL GENERATION UNIT FUEL CAPACITY (MW) INSTALL YEAR Fayette Power Project (50% Share) Unit 1 Coal Unit 2 Coal TOTAL COAL 602 South Texas Project (16% Share) Unit 1 Nuclear Unit 2 Nuclear TOTAL NUCLEAR 436 Decker Creek Power Station Unit 1 Gas Unit 2 Gas Unit 1-4 (Gas Turbines) Gas Sand Hill Energy Center Units 1-4 (Gas Turbines) Gas Unit 5 (Combined Cycle) Gas Units 6-7 (Gas Turbines) Gas TOTAL NATURAL GAS 1,497 Robert Mueller Energy Center Gas Combined Heat & Power (CHP) TOTAL CHP 4.6 TOTAL CAPACITY 2,540 MW 3 ERCOT control room.

5 UTILITY-SCALE RENEWABLE RESOURCES UNIT NAME FUEL INSTALLED FIRST YEAR OF POWER PURCHASE TYPE CAPACITY (MW) COMMERCIAL EXPIRATION DATE OPERATION BIOMASS Sunset Farms Landfill Methane Tessman Road Landfill Landfill Methane Nacogdoches Power Biomass TOTAL BIOMASS SOLAR Webberville Solar Project Solar TOTAL SOLAR 30 WIND Lower Colorado River Authority (LCRA) Texas Wind Contract Wind Sweetwater Wind Farm 2 Wind Sweetwater Wind Farm 3 Wind Whirlwind Energy Center Wind Hackberry Wind Project Wind Iberdola Penascal I & II Wind Los Vientos II Wind Whitetail Wind TOTAL WIND TOTAL RENEWABLES MW Renewables 10.21% Energy by Fuel Type 2013 Gas 39.85% Renewables 20.68% ERCOT FY 2013 Austin Energy FY 2013 Purchases* 14.94% Net Imports 0.75% Nuclear 11.55% Coal 37.63% Coal 25.91% PENDING WIND PROJECTS Unit Name MW Year Year Capacity Beginning Ending SOLAR 149 MW Needed to Reach Goal Installed and in Progress: Gas 15.66% Nuclear 22.81% Los Vientos III Commercial, 7 MW Los Vientos IV Webberville (Utility Scale) 30 MW Residential, 12 MW Municipal and Schools, 2 MW *Austin Energy purchases are not tied to specific resources, although most purchases are based on natural gas. 4

6 New Resource Considerations Proposed Resource, Generation and Climate Protection Plan to 2020 Austin Energy s current resource plan provides a roadmap for achieving the current Austin City Council goals and objectives as adopted in the Austin Energy Resource, Generation and Climate Protection Plan to While the plan addresses renewable energy and CO 2 reduction goals, Austin Energy must also consider other factors, including affordability, market conditions, regulatory requirements and the age and competitiveness of existing assets that may need to be replaced and/or retired. By necessity, the plan is intended to be flexible and is expected to change over time. The selection of resources for Austin Energy is focused on commercially-available generation technologies such as wind, solar, combined cycle and gas turbines, with the following attributes: Cost-effective Mature technology Operating history with good technical performance Available from multiple suppliers Availability of technical manpower Fuel availability Defined regulatory framework for permitting and operating Dispatchable vs. intermittent resources The diagram below depicts the resource planning process: MW 2000 Austin Energy has plans to further diversify its generation portfolio with clean and cost-effective natural gas, wind and solar resources. As depicted in the current resource plan, Austin Energy anticipates adding more natural gas by 2020, including a 200 MW expansion at the Sand Hill Energy Center. The plan also calls for an additional 500 MW of wind power and 150 MW of solar power 100 MW of which will be local solar as set forth by the Austin City Council. Austin Energy has submitted air permit modification requests to the Environmental Protection Agency and Texas Commission on Environmental Quality to authorize expansion GENERATION RESOURCES at the Sand Hill Energy Center. The site was originally designed to accommodate an additional unit and would bring the plant s highly efficient combined cycle natural gas production to 500 MW. Austin Energy s resource plan also is designed to take advantage of current federal tax credits for wind and solar developers. These incentives can reduce the cost of these resources by as much as 30 percent. It is unclear how long these incentives will be provided by the federal government, so Austin Energy is proactively negotiating renewable energy contracts that capture the benefit of these credits ,545 MW COAL 602 MW ,009 MW COAL 367 MW NUCLEAR 436 MW 1500 GAS NUCLEAR 436 MW GAS 1,697 MW COMMUNITY AND OWNER INPUT ASSUMPTIONS SCREENING OF OPTIONS 1000 WIND GAS 1497 MW PLAN DEVELOPMENT When? How much? Build or purchase? WHAT IF SENSITIVITIES PLAN MEETS CITY COUNCIL OBJECTIVES RECOMMENDATIONS & ACTIONS 500 BIOMASS NUCLEAR COAL SOLAR 2020 RENEWABLES WIND 850 MW 112 MW BIOMASS 112 MW 48 MW SOLAR 200 MW* WIND 1,197 MW *including 100 MW local solar RENEWABLES 5

7 WIND ENERGY In January 2013, Congress extended PTCs (2.3 cents per kwh for ten years) for wind projects that began construction by Dec. 31, In lieu of a PTC, wind projects initiated by the end of 2013 were eligible for an ITC (30 percent of project costs.) To initiate a project, developers had to invest five percent of their project s total cost before Dec. 31. SOLAR ENERGY In 2008, Congress extended the 30 percent ITC for solar projects through Dec. 31, In addition, under the Texas property tax code, on-site residential and commercial projects are exempt from property taxes. Photo: Jody Horton Environmental Despite rapid population and peak demand growth in the Austin Energy service area, Austin Energy s total CO 2 emitting capacity in 2012 was nearly the same as it was in Total CO 2 emissions from Austin Energy s power plants fluctuate from year to year based on the electricity market and how often Austin Energy s fossil-fueled resources are dispatched. The utility is evaluating options for operating its fossil-fueled units to ensure CO 2 levels reach and remain 20 percent below 2005 levels by 2020 as required by the Austin Climate Protection Plan. Federal Incentives for Renewable Energy Renewable energy tax incentives take the form of a Production Tax Credit (PTC) for wind developers and Investment Tax Credit (ITC) for solar developers. PTCs provide the generation owner with a tax credit for each kilowatt-hour (kwh) produced in the first ten years of production, and ITCs give developers a 30 percent upfront investment credit. Austin Energy customers benefit from these tax incentives through lower cost Power Purchase Agreements negotiated by Austin Energy and renewable energy developers Emissions Data (2013 emissions data will be available in February 2014.) CO 2 Plant Emissions` 4.6 million metric tonnes 17% below 2005 levels CO 2 per kwh of Electricity* 0.95 lbs per kwh 14% lower than 2005 emission rate *The CO 2 per kwh of electricity has declined due to an increase of renewable energy resources and the availability of low cost energy in the ERCOT Nodal Market. Sand Hill Energy Center 6

8 Regulatory Drivers Proposed and current regulations drive resource decisions and include environmental, market, and reliability requirements. Key rulemakings that have been introduced, proposed or finalized in recent years that could influence Austin Energy s generation planning include: ENVIRONMENTAL Federal health-based ozone standard The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is expected to propose a lower standard for ozone in Depending on the new standard, Austin and the surrounding area could be designated as non-attainment for ozone. A non-attainment designation could then trigger lower limits on nitrogen oxide (NO X ) emissions at existing power plants and require any new NO X -emitting power plants in the area to offset their emissions by reducing emissions at other sources. Federal limits on power plant greenhouse gas emissions The EPA recently proposed firsttime national standards that limit greenhouse gas emissions from newly-built power plants, and they are expected to follow this with a proposal to limit greenhouse gas emissions from existing power plants in Federal limits on power plant NO X and SO 2 The EPA is currently revising cap-and-trade regulations that affect all power plants in the midand eastern U.S., including Texas. Those revised regulations, expected to be proposed in 2014, could result in additional costs for allowances required for power plant emissions. New mercury limits for coal units Scrubbers on Units 1 and 2 at the Fayette Power Project keep the coal plant well-positioned to meet new strict mercury and other air toxics limits that take effect in MARKET/RELIABILITY System Wide Offer Cap Resource adequacy concerns have resulted in the PUC of Texas raising the System Wide Offer Cap to $9,000 beginning in June The high prices are designed to encourage utilities to invest in new generation and demand response. Operating Reserve Demand Curve To address resource adequacy concerns in the energy-only market, the PUC of Texas has directed ERCOT to implement a mechanism to value reserves. This would provide additional revenues to the generators. Ancillary Service Market changes Ancillary Services (AS) are market products that help ensure the reliability of the electric grid during system disturbances or short-term shortages resulting from unexpected events related to both load and/or generation. ERCOT has proposed market modifications to take advantage of new generation technology capabilities as well as to address ongoing changes in the market and in traditional generation technologies. This will ensure the AS market continues to meet and exceed North American Electric Reliability Corporation standards. Capacity market The PUC of Texas is discussing the establishment of a Mandatory Reserve Margin on the load serving entities to ensure there is sufficient generation in the ERCOT Nodal Market. If approved, this could potentially result in a Centralized Capacity Market. Scrubbers on Units 1 and 2 at the Fayette Power Project remove more than 95 percent of sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) emissions. 7

9 Conservation Demand side management plays a critical role in fulfilling the goals of the Austin Climate Protection Plan. In fiscal year 2013, cumulative energy efficiency and Green Building services resulted in 54 MW of peak demand savings, the highest offset since Between 1982 and 2006, energy efficiency programs administered by Austin Energy offset the need to build a 700 MW power plant. This became known as Austin Energy s first conservation power plant. In 2007, Austin Energy kicked off a new goal with the Austin Climate Protection Plan to offset another 800 MW of peak energy demand by MW Savings Forecast DEMAND SIDE SAVINGS Achieving the 800 MW Goal Actual Austin Energy s strategy to reach 800 MW of peak demand savings by 2020 involves a targeted mix of energy efficiency products and services, including demand response programs for residential and commercial customers. These initiatives are complemented by a rate structure that promotes conservation and energy efficiency while improving long-term revenue stability. Because Austin Energy has long-standing energy efficiency programs, the utility is focusing on emerging technologies where new opportunities exist Cumulative MW Saved Forecast Actual Austin Energy s PowerPartner TM program utilizes a new generation of thermostats that can be controlled remotely by customers and Austin Energy using the Internet. The program helps conservation efforts by managing peak demand. 8

10 Customer Energy Solutions Program Successes Customer Energy Solutions provides sustainable energy solutions to the customers and communities served by Austin Energy. Increased energy efficiency and demand response program participation from 39,660 customers in FY 2012 to 41,831 in FY Provided $37 million in solar incentives for 2,740 residential solar projects and 141 commercial solar projects since the Austin Energy Solar Program s inception in Maximize federal stimulus grants: Weatherized 1,886 low-income households using federal American Recovery and Reinvestment Act stimulus grants totaling $9.6 million $7.6 million in grants for energy efficiency improvement projects in City of Austin facilities $10 million in U.S. Department of Energy Better Buildings grant for single-family energy efficiency rebates and low-interest loans Completed an Energy Efficiency Market Potential Study to assess the potential for energy efficiency savings through In FY 2013, Green Building rated more than two million square feet of commercial space with two projects achieving the highest rating of five stars; 1,500 multifamily units, including two four-star developments; and more than 600 residential dwellings with 249 achieving a five-star rating. The Weatherization Assistance Program provides free home improvements to qualified customers. Austin Energy s Small Business Lighting program offers significant rebates for energy-efficient lighting upgrades. Photo: Kimberly Finkel Davis Photo: Joanie Guiling For more than 20 years, Austin Energy s Green Building program has been educating and guiding builders and Austin Energy customers on how to design and construct sustainable homes and buildings. LifeWorks, a non-profit, leveraged the benefits of the solar leasing program to install rooftop and covered parking solar arrays on its newest five-star Green Building rated facility. 9

11 Austin Energy s mission is to deliver clean, affordable, reliable energy and excellent customer service. 10

12 Investing in a Clean Future