JRC activities in the field of renewable energy mapping & monitoring and presentation of the Danube Bioenergy Nexus

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1 JRC activities in the field of renewable energy mapping & monitoring and presentation of the Danube Bioenergy Nexus Fabio Monforti-Ferrario European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC) Institute for Energy and Transport Renewables and Energy Efficiency Unit 9 July

2 Who are we? Institute for Energy and Transport 1 of the 7 scientific institutes of the JRC JRC: the European Commission's in-house science service As a Directorate-General of the European Commission, the JRC provides customer driven scientific and technical support for the conception, development, implementation and monitoring of European Union policies. Our mission: provide support to Community policies and technology innovation to ensure sustainable, safe, secure and efficient energy production, distribution and use and to foster sustainable and efficient transport in Europe Main activities: Renewable energies Sustainable & safe nuclear energy Energy techno/economic assessment Hydrogen and fuel cells Clean fossil fuel Energy efficiency Security of energy supply Sustainable transport 2

3 Renewable Energy Mapping & Monitoring in Europe and Africa Activities Monitor the implementation of the RE Directive 2009/28/EC Support Commission evaluation process for Member State reports Assess resource use and potential: biomass, biofuels, solar, wind, hydro.. Engage in the EU-Africa Energy Partnership

4 Renewable Energy Directive National targets

5 Progress Reports RE share Difference with NREAPs Two countries (BG and SE) already reached in 2012 the 2020 target. DE and PT still to deliver PR

6 Monitoring RES development 2005 The energy mix will change biofuels 3.1% hydro 29.7% RES 2020 target level: ~ 250 Mtoe Bioenergy contribution: ~ 140 Mtoe geotherm al 0.5% 250 Renewable final energy consumption in the EU biomass 59.3% heat pumps 0.5% solar 0.8% wind 6.0% biofuels 12.1% Mtoe biomass 45.1% hydro 13.0% 100 geotherm al 1.1% 50 solar 6.2% hydro geothermal solar tide, wave, ocean wind heat pumps biomass biofuels heat pumps 4.8% wind 17.4% marine 0.2% 6

7 Bioenergy deployment in Danube Region 9 EU Member States AT, BG, HR, CZ, DE, HU, RO, SK and SI 7 non-eu countries UA,MD, RS, BiH, AL, ME and FYROM Sectors - Heating/Cooling - Electricity -Transport Biomass supply -Forest - Agriculture -Waste The Danube Region Biomass Action Plan Szilárd Árvay 7

8 Bioenergy deployment in EU-DC 2012 EU-DC's deviation from NREAPs - Bioenergy Total bioenergy in EU-DC's PJ ( ktoe) growth rate = 1.2% Bioheat 74.1% of total bioenergy in EU-DC's Decrease by 0.7% in % 10 5 Bioelectricity 13.6% of total bioenergy in EU-DC's Increased by 18.5% in BG CZ DE HR HU AT RO SI SK Biofuels 12.3% of total bioenergy in EU-DC's Decreased by 2.8% in Source: NREAPs and bi-annual progress reports DE- bioenergie.fnr.de 8

9 Expected growth of bioenergy in Danube Region In 2020 bioenergy is expected to cover 57.8% of total RES in EU Danube Countries Total Bioenergy [PJ] Source: Bi-annual progress reports and NREAPs DE- bioenergie.fnr.de

10 Bioheat in EU DC's Current(2012) and expected development 74.1% of total bioenergy decrease by 0.7% % of total bioenergy Source: Bi-annual progress reports and NREAPs DE- bioenergie.fnr.de

11 Bioelectricity in EU DC's Current(2012) and expected development 11.7% of total bioenergy Increased by 18.5% % of total bioenergy Source: Bi-annual progress reports and NREAPs DE- bioenergie.fnr.de

12 Danube Bioenergy Nexus Aim: to address the challenges and opportunities of bioenergy in the Danube Region through activities of Scientific/Technical Networking + Joint Projects of Research & Development Proposed activities - Biomass mobilization: present and future role of the Danube River. - Statistical assessment of Bioenergy status & Progress in Danube Countries - Assessment of forest biomass potential for energy - Assessment of agricultural crop residues availability - Local use of Biomass feedstock for biogas and bio-heat - Public support schemes & Funding mechanisms for bioenergy 12

13 Danube Bioenergy Nexus The initiative aims at bringing together experts from the whole area and a specific attention will be paid to associating - National institutions(including research institutions) - International partners (including the International Energy Agency Bioenergy Task 43 on Biomass feedstock for energy markets) - EU Initiatives such as the JRC Enlargement/Integration/ Neighbourhood Programme or Horizon 2020 One Expert Consultation currently in preparation: Kiev Ukraine, Focus on crop residues for bioenergy, Cooperation with SECB and UABIO, September 2014

14 Monitoring Bioenergy development Sectoral analysis of bioenergy development RES and bioenergy targets and perspectives Assessing biomass demand vs. potential Addressing sustainability 9 July

15 Land use for bioenergy? Land use for bioenergy 3.5 Land requirements for bioenergy production in the EU in 2020 assessment based on the NREAPs projections (E, H&C and biofuels) availability of domestic biomass from forestry, agriculture and waste additional import of biomass 2 nd generation biofuels & bioliquids domestic and imported biofuels & bioliquids Mha AT BE BG CY CZ DE DK EE EL ES FI FR HU IE IT LT LU LV MT NL PL PT RO SE SI SK UK EU Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Scenarios 1. NREAPs reference scenario 2. Additional import of biofuels scenario 3.No 2 nd generation biofuels scenario 4. Reduced import of biofuels scenario % 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% Share of land requirements of bioenergy production of utilised agricultural land in % 10% 5% 0% AT BE BG CY CZ DE DK EE EL ES FI FR HU IE IT LT LU LV MT NL PL PT RO SE SI SK UK EU Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 99 July July

16 Crop residues for bioenergy production Straw energy potential abundant throughout Europe easy to exploit available technology some operating plants however -> slow transfer of know-how across the EU Inventory of straw in the EU actual crop production environmental constraints competitive use availability for energy -> spatial data disaggregation 9 July

17 Crop residues for bioenergy production Main crops included: wheat, barley, oat, rye, maize, rapeseed, rice and sunflower crop production (1000 tonnes/region, multi-annual time series) straw production (1000 tonnes/region) residue to yield ratios 1.6 straw to grain ratyio [-] crop yield [t/ha] 9 July

18 Spatial distribution of crop residues residues in regions Monforti et al, RSER, 2013 spatial crop location density of residues for energy Land use Land cover (M3) Land productivity Resolution: 1km x 1km

19 wheat, barley, oat, rye, maize, rapeseed, rice and sunflower

20 Energy potential of crop residues energy production collection available potential (kt) (kt) (kt) (ktoe) DC 179,251 78,790 72,352 30,242 EU28 286, , ,486 42,419

21 Mechanistic SOC model CENTURY model vers.4 - Widely used - Monthly time-step -Simulating arable, permanent crops Turnover time months-years + Turnover time yrs + Turnover time yrs = SOC stock

22 Crop residues collection Optimal collection Incorporating the effect of residue removal rates on SOC stock change Agro-ecosystem Century Model Soil data European Soil Database ESDB Climatic data University of East Anglia Agricultural land - Corine Land Cover July Submitted to RSER, November 2013

23 GIS-based assessment of forest biomass Integrate detailed ground information from National Forest Inventories with remote sensing and modelling tools for a spatially explicit assessment of forest biomass potential. Forest database Forest area Growing stock Net annual increment Annual fellings Forest maps Forest area Forest biomass increment and growing stock Environmental constraints biodiversity protected areas riparian areas soil protection/soil erosion elevation slope soil properties Technical constraints infrastructure accessibility topography elevation slope 9 July

24 GIS-based assessment of forest biomass Estimation of Above Ground Biomass increment from MODIS NPP/GPP data (1 km resolution) Average maps of GPP and NPP estimates for The MODIS GPP map was adjusted from upscalingof FLUXNET CO 2 and H 2 O fluxes observations using the Model Tree Ensemble technique (Jung et al. 2011) Above ground biomass increment computed using Ise at al. (2010) approach Country/regional level validation using NFI data Resolution: 1km x 1km 9 July 2014 Busetto, L. et al. (2014) Developing a spatially-explicit pan-european dataset of forest 24 biomass increment. In: Proceedings of the EU BC&E nd European Biomass Conference and Exhibition, Hamburg June.

25 Spatial distribution of forest potential Forest Maps -LAEA Forest Protected areas Forest Biomass Above Ground Biomass Increment Digital Elevation Model Slope gradient map Roads in Europe 9 July July Forest management mask 25 25

26 Forest biomass - theoretical potential (mil m3) theoretical potential (Mm3) forest biomass stemwood forest residues DC EU28 9 July

27 stemwood medium mobilisation scenario Three scenarios defined: low mobilisation medium mobilisation high mobilisation Technical & environmental constraints Three levels of protection 9 July 2014 Resolution: 1km x 1km 27

28 Forest residues medium mobilisation scenario medium mobilisation potential (Mm3) forest biomass stemwood forest residues DC EU July

29 Biogas Potential from Pig Manure 9 July

30 Biogas Potential Manure 9 July

31 Energy from waste European waste incineration capacities -potential for energy recovery from waste Western European countries have large capacities for waste incineration Except Germany and Austria, other EU- DCs are at the beginning of the energy use from waste, with incineration capacities less than 100 kg/year/capita 9 July

32 Energy from waste Case study: Croatia Current situation there are 310 landfill sites 137 active 8 active for industrial waste 94 closed waste was removed from 71 sites no existing landfill gas recovery 3 projects of future landfill gas plants (4.65MWel in total) JRC's research activities Assessment of the potential of landfill gas utilisation for each location Calculation of potentials of waste utilisation in incineration plants 9 July

33 Energy from waste Case study: Croatia Spatial analysis Electricity production from landfill gas recovery systems IPCC landfill gas generation model Major landfill sites considered 9 July

34 Bioenergy potentials Case study: Croatia Current situation Croatia has 1.25 million ha of used agricultural land 2.23 million ha covered by forests Access to Danube transport network Sea ports biomass 3 biomass power plants (6.7 MWel in total) 101 projects of future biomass power plants (236 MWel) biogas 10 biogas power plants connected to grid (10.1 MWel) 59 projects of future biogas power plants (83.9 MWel) JRC's research activities Research on the availability of biomass resources and competition among bioenergy projects Assessing the possibilities to use navigability potentials for improved usage of bioenergy 9 July

35 . Mobilization of bioenergy raw resources in the Danube basin Transport of biomass on the Danube River, B.Matzner The Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR): concept, structure, emissions distribution and methodology to assess modal-shift scenarios M. Muntean 9 July

36 Biomass conversion and its impact on the atmospheric environment Source apportionment of air pollution and its potentials to address key process in the Danube region C.Belis Is children's health affected by any source of air pollutants in the Danube region? Overview of the project PAH2DAN L. Gribaldo 9 July

37 iet.jrc.ec.europa.eu/remea Joint Research Centre (JRC) Robust science for policy making

38 Scientific/Technical Networking Extending RES sustainability criteria to solid and gaseous biomass, The Hague, Uppsala, Toronto, JRC, IEA, INAS, NL Agency Agro-environmental impact of biofuels and bioenergy (EUROCLIMA), UNICAMP/CTBE Campinas, Brazil, Greenhouse gas emissions from biofuels and bioenergy (EUROCLIMA), INTA, Buenos Aires, Argentina, The effects of increased demand for biofuel feedstocks on the world agricultural markets and areas, Ispra, Review and inter-comparison of modelling land use change effects of bioenergy, OECD/EEA, Paris, Direct and indirect impact of biofuel policies on tropical deforestation in Malaysia, MPOC, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, Sustainable Bioenergy Cropping Systems for the Mediterranean, Madrid JRC, EEA, CENER, CIEMAT. Cereal straw resources for bioenergy in the European Union, 2006, Pamplona,- CENER. Cereals straw and agricultural residues for bioenergy in New Member States and Candidate Countries, 2007, - Novi Sad. Biomass resource assessment for biofuels/bioenergy and competition with other biomass uses,eberswalde University/EEA, Eberswalde, Germany, SRF, SRC and Energy Grass in the European Union: Agroenvironmental component, present use and perspectives, 2007, Harpenden -EEA, Rothamsted. EU Forest-based biomass for energy: cost supply relations and constraints, Metla/EFI, 2007, Joensuu