Analytical Problem Solving Techniques

Transcription

1 Analytical Problem Solving Techniques Present at Actuarial Competencies Seminar 2

2 " One certain thing in an ever-changing world is there will always be problems to solve. Problem solving is required of every person in almost every aspect of life. The best way to escape from a problem is to solve it. Slide 2

3 This presentation is to review steps in solving problems and tools that could be used in those steps. Slide 3

4 Steps in Problem Solving Define the problem Analyse problem and generate solutions Generate solutions and select an optimal Slide 4

5 Define the problem 1 Define the problem Purpose Identify gap between the current situation and the desired situation and define key question Outcome Prioritized list of problems Problem definition statement / key questions Sample Tools Brainstorming Pareto Diagram Issue Tree Cause-and-effect Analysis Process Mapping Slide 5

6 First, you need to define the key question The key question defines the objective of the analysis to solve problem The key question will also guide data collection and analysis for problem The key question A clear statement of the problem to be solved or the issue to be resolved A key question is A leading question or firm hypothesis Specific/focused not general Contentful (not a statement of fact or non-disputable assertion) Actionable Focuses on what the decision maker needs to move forward A good key question addresses these questions What is the impact or pain on our customers, business or employees? How extensive is the problem? What is wrong or not working? When, where and how often does the problem occur? Slide 6

7 How to develop the key question Use the Situation Complication Question approach: Situation ABC Insurance is looking to expands its operations in the pursuit of profitable growth Complication Increasing cost pressures in its core business are having a negative impact on margins Key Question What are the implications from likely changes in the industry to ABC Insurance s growth targets? Slide 7

8 Key question example Key question Evaluation ABC Insurance is successful and profitable and wishes to focus on growth Statement of fact Should ABC Insurance grow to offset emerging pressures in its core business? Can ABC Insurance grow in its current geography? Statement of fact Too general What are the key implications of likely changes to the Thai Insurance industry for ABC Insurance s strategy, over the next 5-10 years, in light of its aspirations to grow earnings at a 10% CAGR? Specific, actionable Slide 8

9 However, it is easy to consider one aspect of problems Of the five figures below, select the one that is different from all of the others How many of you answer "B"? A : only figure with a continuous line and no points of discontinuity B : only figure that has all straight lines C : only figure with two straight and two curved lines D : only one with one curved and one straight line E : only figure that is nonsymmetrical or partial There can often be more than one problem definition, more than one right answer, and more than one perspective from which to view a problem Slide 9

10 Define the problem 1 Define the problem Differentiate fact from opinion Tap everyone involved for information State the problem explicitly Identify what standard is violated Determine whose problem it is Avoid stating the problem as a disguised solution e.g. "The problem is that we need to motivate the slow employees" Einstein is quoted as saying: If he had one hour to save the world he would spend fifty-five minutes defining the problem and only five minutes finding the solution Slide 10

11 Analyse problem and generate solutions 1 Define the problem 2 Analyse problem and generate solutions Purpose Outcome Sample Tools Identify root causes for the problem Identify a range of creative alternative to achieve desired outcomes Identified root causes and / or potential solutions Issue Tree Cause-and-effect Analysis Process Mapping Pareto Diagram Affinity Diagrams Six Thinking Hats Techniques Slide 11

12 Then, you need to identify the root causes and solutions What is an issues tree? Why use an issues tree? To... Identifies all of the issues or possible solutions to a key question Focuses your work on thoroughly answering the key question and turning a broad question into testable possible solutions or issues i.e. hypotheses Built on a key question at the top and then moving down subsequent layers until you can identify specific hypotheses that can be tested Break a problem into component parts so that Problem solving can be divided into intellectually manageable pieces Priorities can be set between the parts Responsibilities can be allocated to individuals Ensure problem solving integrity is maintained Solving the parts will really solve the problem The parts are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive (i.e., no overlaps, no gaps) - 'MECE or 'NONG Slide 12

13 What do we mean by MECE - Mutually Exclusive and Collectively Exhaustive How can we reduce energy costs? No overlaps (Mutually Exclusive) By reducing cost of each energy unit By reducing number of energy units used Use lower cost fuels in existing equipment Add new equipment using less costly fuel Create new equipment to use less fuel Fix existing equipment to use less fuel Nothing left out (Collectively Exhaustive) Slide 13

14 What does an issues tree look like? Level 1 Key Question How can ABC create excess capacity of 130+ FTE in call centres? Level 2 Possible solutions Identifying all possible high level solutions guides the key areas for review, and can assist to structure the project onto streams of work By decreasing the average call length for phone staff By increasing the proportion of time phone staff spend answering calls By improving processes and behaviours of offphone staff (eg. Team Leaders) Level 3 Possible solutions Identifying all possible next-level solutions assists to ensure that all bases are covered and guides the analysis. You will find that not all of these solutions are validated, eg. there may not be much irrelevant dialogue occurring, but at least you have covered the possibility By reducing the time spent to understand the reason for the call By reducing the time spent to identify the caller By reducing the time spent on irrelevant dialogue By reducing the time spent to resolve the caller s issue By reducing the time spent on attempts to crosssell products Level 4 Possible solutions Solutions should continue to a level where it is possible to conduct analysis to prove or disprove the solutions By improving the ID process By improving staff behaviour in identifying callers By improving call centre technology regarding customer identification Slide 14

15 Tips for building an issues tree Tip Bear in mind that some of the possible solutions will be out of scope and will not need to be explored further Rationale No need to boil the ocean on tasks that are out of scope Use team Rough hypothesis sessions tap everyone's creativity, tend to get better answers and are fun If stuck, try building them backward in addition to It is sometimes easier to think up sub-issues and forward analysis then group them, than to work linearly Try multiple trees and constantly update and revise Different trees provide new perspectives Ensure your issues tree is MECE (Mutually Exclusive and Comprehensively Exhaustive) Ensures problem solving integrity is maintained There should be 3 to 5 points in each grouping Less than 3 or more than 5 points in each grouping may indicate incomplete thinking ie Not MECE Use frameworks to guide questions Using frameworks provides a problem solving structure, which leverages pervious experience Slide 15

16 How about Fishbone Diagram? What is a Fishbone Diagram? Why use a Fishbone Diagram? To... A graphic technique for identifying cause-and-effect relationships among factors in a given situation or problem To allow a team to identify, explore, and graphically display, in increasing detail, all of the possible causes related to a problem or condition to discover its root cause(s) Enable a team to focus on the content of the problem, not on the history of the problem or differing personal interests of team members Create a snapshot of the collective knowledge and consensus of a team around a problem Focus the team on the causes, not symptoms Slide 16

17 How does Fishbone Diagram work? 1. Select the most appropriate cause & effect format Dispersion Analysis Type: Constructed by placing individual causes within each major cause category then asking of each individual cause Why does this cause happen? This question is repeated for the next level of detail until the team runs out of causes Process Classification Type: Uses the major steps of the process in place of the major cause categories. 2. Generate the causes needed to build a Cause & Effect diagram using Brainstorming 3. Construct the Fishbone diagram Machinery/Equipment Poor handling of large orders Methods Run out of ingredients People High turnover Poor use of space Lack of training Inaccurate ordering Materials People don t show up Late pizza deliveries on Fridays & Saturdays Slide 17

18 You will need data to determine rank causes What is a Pareto Diagram? Why use a Pareto Diagram? To... A simple graphical technique for rank ordering causes from most-to-least significant, identifying major factors, and distinguishing between the few critical causes and potentially less significant ones, help locate where maximum performance improvement can be made for the effort expended To focus efforts on the problems that offer the greatest potential for improvement by showing their relative frequency or size in a descending bar graph Help a team to focus on the causes that will have the greatest impact if solved Based on the proven Pareto principle: 20% of the sources cause 80% of the problem Display the relative importance of problems in a simple, quickly interpreted, visual format Help prevent shifting the problem where the solution removes some causes but worsens others Slide 18

19 How does Pareto Diagram work? 1. Decide which problem you want to know more about Example: Consider the case of HOTrep, an internal computer network help line Why do people call the HOTrep help line; what problems are people having? 2. Choose the causes or problems that will be monitored, compared, and rank ordered by brainstorming or with existing data Brainstorming: What are typical problems that users ask about on the HOTrep help line? Existing Data: What problems last month have users called in to the HOTrep help line? 3. Choose the most meaningful unit of measurement, such as frequency or cost 4. Choose the time period for the study Example: Review HOTrep help line calls for 10 weeks (May 22 August 4) 5. Gather the necessary data on each problem category either by real time or reviewing historical data Gathered HOTrep help line calls data based on the review of incident reports (historical) Slide 19

20 How does Pareto Diagram work? 6. Compare the relative frequency or cost of each problem category 7. List the problem categories on the horizontal line and frequencies on the vertical line List the categories in descending order from left to right on the horizontal line with bars above each problem category to indicate frequency or cost list unit of measure on vertical axis Problem Category Frequency Bad configuration 3 Boot problems 68 File problems 8 Lat. connection 20 Print problems 16 Reflection hang 24 Reflection sys. Integrity 11 Reflections misc. 6 System configuration 16 System integrity 19 Others 15 Total: 206 # of Occurences Boot problems Reflection hang Lat. connection System integrity Print problems System configuration Others Reflection sys. Integrity File problems Reflections misc. Bad configuration Slide 20

21 How does Pareto Diagram work? 8. Interpret the results Generally, the tallest bars indicate the biggest contributors to the overall problem However, the most frequent or expensive problem is not always the most important Always ask: What has the most impact on the goals of our business and customers? # of Occurences 10 0 Boot problems Reflection hang Lat. connection System integrity Print problems System configuration Others Reflection sys. Integrity File problems Reflections misc. Bad configuration Slide 21

22 Sometimes, you need ways to help generate ideas What is an Affinity Diagram? Why use an Affinity Diagram? To... A way to gather and group ideas in a meaningful way To allow a team to creatively generate a large number of ideas/issues and then organize and summarize natural groupings among them to understand the essence of a problem and breakthrough solutions Encourage creativity by everyone on the team at all phases of the process Encourage non-traditional connections amongst ideas Overcomes team paralysis, which is brought on by an overwhelming array of options and lack of consensus Slide 22

23 How does Affinity Diagram work? 1. Phrase the issues under discussion in a full sentence What are the issues involved in planning fun family vacations? 2. Brainstorm at least 20 ideas or more Record each idea on a post-it in large letters Use at a minimum a noun and a verb Avoid using single words; 4-7 words work well Ask kids for ideas Look at family pictures Find a good range of price alternatives Consider everyone s hobbies Determine total budget 3. Without talking, sort ideas simultaneously into 5-10 related groupings Move post-it notes where they fit best for you Stop sorting when each person feels comfortable with the groupings Ask kids for ideas Look at family pictures Consider everyone s hobbies Find a good range of price alternatives Determine total budget Slide 23

24 How does Affinity Diagrams work? 4. For each grouping, create summary or header cards using consensus Gain a quick team consensus on a word/phrase that captures central idea of each grouping; record it on a post-it and place it at the top of each grouping. These are Draft Header Cards For each grouping, agree on a concise sentence that combines the grouping s central idea and what all of the specific post-it notes add to that idea. These are Final Header Cards Divide large groupings into subgroups as needed and create appropriate subheaders Draw the final Affinity Diagram connecting all finalized header cards with their groupings Header Cards Define an ideal vacation through family consensus Ask kids for ideas Look at family pictures Consider everyone s hobbies Determine the most your budget will buy Find a good range of price alternatives Determine total budget Slide 24

25 More ways to help generate ideas What is De Bono's 6 Thinking Hats? Why use Six Thinking Hat? To... A brainstorming technique used to look at the effects of a decision from a number of different points of view To allow necessary emotion and skepticism to be brought into what would otherwise be purely rational decisions; It opens up the opportunity for creativity within Decision Making. Focus and improve the thinking process Encourage creative, parallel and lateral thinking Improve communication Speed up decision making Avoid debate Slide 25

26 How does a Six Thinking Hats work? The white hat considers only the data and information at hand. The red hat presents their feelings or intuition about the subject without explanation or need for justification. The black hat calls for caution and critical judgment. The blue hat controls the brainstorming process. The green hat makes time and space available for creative thinking. The yellow hat has optimism and a positive view of things. Slide 26

27 Example - Sequence of Hats When Seeking an Idea Green: To further explore information and generate alternatives White: To find supporting data for each alternative Yellow: To assess the benefits and feasibility of each alternative Black: To assess the weaknesses and dangers of each alternative Blue: To facilitate process in choosing alternative Black: To make the final judgment on the chosen alternative Red: To find out the feelings on the outcome Slide 27

28 Analyse problem and generate solutions 1 Define the problem 2 Analyse problem and generate solutions Differentiate fact from opinion Tap everyone involved for information State the problem explicitly Identify what standard is violated Determine whose problem it is Avoid stating the problem as a disguised solution e.g. "The problem is that we need to motivate the slow employees" All alternatives should be proposed before evaluation is allowed Alternatives are proposed by all individuals involved in the problem Alternative solutions are consistent with organizational goals or policies Specify both short-term and long-term alternatives Build on others ideas Specify alternatives that solve the problem Slide 28

29 Select an optimal 1 Define the problem Purpose 2 Analyse problem and generate solutions Select an optimal Weigh alternative solutions against agreed upon criteria 3 Outcome Strengths and weakness of alternative solutions Evaluation scores of each alternative solution Sample Tools Weighted Ranking Assessment / Prioritization Matrices Slide 29

30 Finally, you need to select a solution What is Prioritization Matrix? Why use Prioritization Matrix? To... A method for reviewing options and choosing top priorities based on a set of criteria established by the group To narrow down options through a systematic approach of comparing choices by selecting, weighting, and applying criteria Quickly surface basic disagreements so they may be resolved upfront Force a team to focus on the best thing to do, and not everything they could do, increasing chances for implementation success Increase the chance of follow-through because consensus is sought at each step in the process Slide 30

31 How does Prioritization Matrix work? 1. Agree on the ultimate goal to be achieved in a clear, concise sentence and create the list of criteria 2. Weight each criterion against each other Choose the most enjoyable vacation for the whole family Criteria Cost Ed. Value Diverse activity Escape reality Row Total Relative Decimal Value Cost Educational value Diverse activity Escape reality Cost 1/5 1/ Ed. Value 5 1/ Diverse activity Escape reality 1/5 1/5 1/ Rankings 1 Equal cost 5 Less expensive 10 Much less expensive 1/5 More expensive 1/10 Much more expensive Grand Total 36.1 Criteria weighting Slide 31

32 Prioritization Matrices: Method 3. Compare all options relative to each weighted criteria Options vs. Each Criterion Create additional matrices for each option, i.e. escape reality, diverse activity, educational value Cost Disney World Gettysbu rg New York City Uncle Henry s Row Total Relative Decimal Value Disney World 1/5 5 1/ Gettysburg / New York 1/5 1/10 1/ City Uncle Henry s Rankings 1 Equal cost 5 Less expensive 10 Much less expensive 1/5 More expensive 1/10 Much more expensive Grand Total 36.1 Option rating Slide 32

33 Prioritization Matrices: Method 5. Using an L-Shaped summary matrix, compare each option based on all criteria combined 6. Choose the best option(s) across all criteria Summary Matrix: Options vs. All Criteria Criteria Cost (.15) Ed. Value (.28) Diverse activity (.55) Escape reality (.02) Row Total Relative Decimal Value Options Disney World.12X.15 (.02).24X.28 (.07).40X.55 (.22).65X.02 (.01) Gettysburg.33X.15 (.05).37X.28 (.10).10X.55 (.06).22X.02 (0) New York City.01X.15 (0).37X.28 (.10).49X.55 (.27).12X.02 (.01) Uncle Henry s.54x.15 (.08).01X.28 (0).01X.55 (.01).01X.02 (0) Grand Total 1.01 Slide 33

34 Generate alternative solutions Define the problem Analyse problem and generate solutions Select an alternative Differentiate fact from opinion Tap everyone involved for information State the problem explicitly Identify what standard is violated Determine whose problem it is Avoid stating the problem as a disguised solution e.g. "The problem is that we need to motivate the slow employees" All alternatives should be proposed before evaluation is allowed Alternatives are proposed by all individuals involved in the problem Alternative solutions are consistent with organizational goals or policies Specify both short-term and long-term alternatives Build on others ideas Specify alternatives that solve the problem Evaluate relative to an optimal standard rather than a satisfactory standard Evaluate systematically so each alternative given due consideration Organizational goals should be met but individual preferences should also be considered Evaluate main effects and side effects State the selected alternative explicitly Slide 34

35 Hints for Applying Problem - Solving Techniques Give yourself some relaxation time: The more intense your work, the more your need for complete breaks. Break out of your routine sometimes. This frees up your mind and gives room for new thoughts Find a place (physical space) where you can think: It should be a place where interruptions are eliminated, at least for a time. Reserve your best time for thinking Talk to other people about ideas: Isolation produces far fewer ideas than does conversation. Make a list of people who stimulate you to think. Spend some time with them Ask other people for their suggestions about your problems: Find out what others think about them. Don t be embarrassed to share your problems, but don t become dependent on others to solve them for you Read a lot: Read at least one thing regularly that is outside your field of expertise. Keep track of new thoughts from your reading Protect yourself from idea killers: Don t spend time with black holes that is, people who absorb all of your energy and light but give nothing in return. Don t let yourself or others negatively evaluate your ideas too soon Slide 35

36 Thank You Any questions regarding this presentation please contact Ukrit Salyapongs Director Advisory Services PricewaterhouseCoopers FAS Co. Ltd. Office: 66 (0) Mobile: 66 (8) Home Page: This publication has been prepared for general guidance on matters of interest only, and does not constitute professional advice. You should not act upon the information contained in this publication without obtaining specific professional advice. No representation or warranty (express or implied) is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this publication, and, to the extent permitted by law, PricewaterhouseCoopers FAS Ltd., its members, employees and agents do not accept or assume any liability, responsibility or duty of care for any consequences of you or anyone else acting, or refraining to act, in reliance on the information contained in this publication or for any decision based on it PricewaterhouseCoopers FAS Ltd. All rights reserved. In this document, refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers FAS Ltd. which is a member firm of PricewaterhouseCoopers International Limited, each member firm of which is a separate legal entity.