Black Jack. and how to win

Transcription

1 Black Jack and how to win

2 The Game Played with 1, 2, 6, or 8 French Decks A is 1 or 11, 10-K is 10, everything else is face value You get two cards Dealer gets one face up card, one face down card If dealer has A showing and you don t have blackjack (A, any 10), insurance is available If dealer has A showing and you DO have blackjack, even money is available If dealer has blackjack, you automatically lose/push main/ win insurance If you have blackjack, you win 3/2 right away You go first Take as many cards as you like If you go over 21, you lose right away If you stop with a hand < 21, Dealer will take cards until they reach 17 or higher If the dealer is > 21 or you are > dealer, you win!

3 The Game Strategy is a known mathematical problem. Given completely random cards here is correct strategy:

4 The Game Basic strategy is most commonly proven by running simulations on a few million hands and analyzing the results. Also some great combinatorial analysis at Averaged House advantages of perfect basic strategy given the many rule quirks surrounding surrender, doubling, and splitting: Number of Decks Single deck 0.17% Double deck 0.46% Four decks 0.60% Six decks 0.64% Eight decks 0.66% House Advantage

5 History of Play An adaptation of the game 21 (Same game, no blackjacks) First written reference found to a game of 21 was in 1602 by Miguel de Cervantes the author of Don Quixote. 21 a popular game in French and Spanish gambling houses through ought the 18 th and 19 th centuries. In the early 20 th century, American casino s started offering a bonus for an ace with a black jack By the 1950 s it surpassed roulette as the most popular casino table game.

6 Counting Systems How they generate an advantage The casino s greatest advantage is that the player goes first (if both bust, casino wins) The player s greatest advantage is that the dealer must hit (making them go bust) When there are enough high cards left in the deck, (10-35% of the time), the player s advantage outweighs the casinos advantage Along for the ride on this big wave of advantage are certain strategy decisions that increase the advantage a bit more when there are allot, or few, large cards left in the deck

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8 Counting Systems BC or Betting Correlation: the advantage gained from increasing your bet at the right time PC or Playing Correlation: the advantage gained from playing correct strategy at the right time Level: How many different values are in the counting system. (+1/ -1 = Level 1, +1+2/-1-2 = Level 2, ect.) Side Counts: Some systems call for counting Aces on the side. Also, some counts are modified to take into account opportunities to place side bets such as Dealer Bust or Over Under 13 that also correlate to the count

9 History of Counting MIT professor and mathematician Edward Thorp first widely published the idea that a skilled player could gain an advantage over the house in Beat The Dealer, 1966 Thorp and Shannon discovered the original Hi-Lo counting system in 1963 Charles Einstein in 1968 threw out Aces and 2s to create the Hi-Lo Opt 1 A thorough mathematical analysis was released by Peter Griffin in 1979 in The Theory of Blackjack, that gave the foundation for a variety of subtle adaptations to the original counting techniques. First un-balenced system was the Red-7 system (still popular today) in Black Belt In Blackjack (1982), by Ken Uston The Illustrious 18 strategy plays were documented in 1986 by Don Schlesinger. Most popular professional counting system today is the Omega II counting system (Level 2 balanced count with ace side count) by Bryce Carlson

10 Counting Systems Modern straight BJ counting systems Card Strate gy , J, Q, K Hi-Lo Hi- Opt I Hi- Opt II KO Omeg a II Zen Count A

11 Legal History Not illegal inside the US Use your mind only No help from people not playing on the same table However, it IS legal for casinos to ban you prom the premises and charge you with trespassing should you return Getting beat up stopped in the 1980 s after a series of successful law suits by players against abusive casinos Atlantic City casinos are prohibited by a successful state supreme court case there from banning known card counters, as a result they have the hardest rules on their games

12 Counting Systems Hi-Lo Basic Most basic balanced system out there Requires running count to true count conversion Generic strategy all day long Hi-Lo ++ At true count +3, take insurance, don t hit 12 ever, surrender 14 v 10, 15 v 9 and 16 v 8, double 9 vs 3,4; double 8 vs 6 At true count -4, hit 12 against 4, 5 This will yield ~.3% player advantage over the house depending on number of decks, cut penetration, and skill

13 Counting Systems KO Basic Most simple Un-Balanced count around Memorize initial running count for the number of decks you are against. (2 = -4, 6 = -20, 8 = -24) Memorize pivot points for the number of decks (2 = 0, 6 = - 4, 8 = -6) Generic strategy all day long KO Preferred At running count +3, take insurance, don t hit 12 ever, surrender 14 v 10, 15 v 9 and 16 v 8, double 9 vs 3,4; double 8 vs 6 At running count < initial running count, hit 12 against 4, 5

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16 Cat Casinos implement several techniques to identify counters Dealers call out sudden large bet increases Dealers call out extremely aggressive plays such as doubling hard 12 or splitting 10s High tech casinos use surveillance to track cards and bets, count along with you, and detect if you are a winning player Once a counter is identified Level 1: A stern glare from the pit boss Level 2: Rule changes to make the game less profitable See list on next slide Level 3: Banned from playing blackjack Level 4: Banned from the casino, it is common at this level to (illegally) be detained and have your picture taken.

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18 and Mouse Counter counter measures Keep playing sessions so wins are within the standard deviation of possible lucky play. ~ 1 hour or less No playing at the same casino in the same day No playing during the same shift in the same week Don t withdraw money from casino atms If you win allot, cash out the chips slowly over an extended period of time Try to look as not young, white, American, in good shape, alone, introverted, and/or intelligent as you can. Lots of various disguises and acts Down up betting strategy If stared at by pit bosses, stare back and engage them in friendly conversation Tip the dealers and they usually keep their mouths shut Research target casinos in online blackjack forums before playing Try and find ways to Wong without getting noticed, i.e. counting by sound

19 Bank-Roll Management A good rule of thumb for any counting technique is to expect a standard deviation of minimum bets (unless you spread more than 1-10) To play 5$ minimum you will need at least a 2500$ bank roll To make enough to live off of, you will need to be betting ~ 100$ minimum and need 50,000$ 100,000$ in a dedicated bank roll. Losing streaks happen allot, winning streaks happen slightly more often Kelly Betting meaning you bet your spread on a ramp according with how much of an advantage you have. Based on the mathematical principal Kelly criterion, this equalizes the risk of ruin.

20 Lets Practice! New game with a side bet Side bet cannot exceed main bet (standard rule) For correct basic decisions 1 1 payout on side bet For correct preferred decisions 2 1 payout on side bet For incorrect decisions you lose side bet One round with cheat sheets One round without 20$ of seed money, plus whatever else you all agree to chip in, winner takes all

21 Good Luck!