What will Happen in the Future of Human Society?
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1 What will Happen in the Future of Human Society? Hiroshi Tasaka Professor at Tama University President of Think Tank SophiaBank
2 First Question Can We Predict the Future? Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 1
3 The Answer is No Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 2
4 Because A small fluctuation will change drastically the future of the evolution of a system. Ilya Prigogine Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 3
5 In Other Words Butterfly Effect Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 4
6 Chaos Theory A small butterfly in Beijing would cause a huge hurricane in New York. Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 5
7 So We Cannot Predict the Future. Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 6
8 But We Can Foresee the Future. Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 7
9 In Other Words We Cannot Predict Events. Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 8
10 We Can Foresee Trends and Paradigm Changes. Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 9
11 In What Way? Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 10
12 By Philosophy Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 11
13 Dialectic Philosophy Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 12
14 by Georg Hegel Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 13
15 by Existentialism of Jean Paul Sartre Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 14
16 by Zen Buddhism Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 15
17 by Taoism Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 16
18 What is Dialectic? Five Laws of Dialectic Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 17
19 Law of Spiral Up Process Law of Mutual Infiltration Process Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 18
20 Law of Double Denial Process Law of Quantity to Quality Process Law of Sublation of Contradiction Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 19
21 What is the Most Important Law to Foresee the Future? Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 20
22 Law of Spiral Up Process Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 21
23 What is the Law of Spiral Up Process? Development of the World is like Climbing Up A Spiral Staircase. Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 22
24 Another Expression Old Thing Once Disappeared will Revive with New Value Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 23
25 Where are Examples? Many Examples in The Internet Revolution and The Web2.0 Revolution Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 24
26 Example Auction and Reverse Auction Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 25
27 What is New Value? In the Past For Hundreds of People At Present For Millions of People Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 26
28 Another Example E mail Revival of Letter Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 27
29 Another Example E Learning Revival of Tutorial System Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 28
30 What is the Second Important Law to Foresee the Future? Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 29
31 Law of Mutual Infiltration Process Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 30
32 What is the Law of Mutual Infiltration Process? Two Opposite Principles in Competition will Fuse into A New Principle. Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 31
33 Where are Examples? Policy of Labour and Conservative Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 32
34 Another Example Principle of Socialism and Capitalism Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 33
35 Example of the Internet Role of Producer and Consumer Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 34
36 Example of the Internet Pro-sumer Development on the Web by Alvin Toffler Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 35
37 Important Question Why Dialectic Now? Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 36
38 Dialectic Law has been Happening in the Past History. Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 37
39 Because of Dog Year (7times faster) Mouse Year (18times faster) Acceleration of Change Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 38
40 In the Past We could Climb Up A Spiral Staircase Just for a Few Steps in Our Lifetime. Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 39
41 But Now We are Running Up A Spiral Staircase. Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 40
42 In the Past Spiral Up Process was An Interest only for Historian. Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 41
43 But Now Spiral Up Process is An Interest even for Businessperson. Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 42
44 Then What Paradigm Changes can be foreseen by Dialectic? Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 43
45 Eight Paradigm Changes Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 44
46 First Paradigm Change What will Happen to Economy? Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 45
47 Paradigm Change Monetary Economy to Voluntary Economy Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 46
48 Spiral Up Process of Economy Old Voluntary Economy will Revive with New Value. Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 47
49 What is Voluntary Economy? An Economy driven by the Motivation of People to Satisfy Mind Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 48
50 What is Monetary Economy? An Economy driven by the Motivation of People to Acquire Money Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 49
51 Example of the Internet Revolution Linux Project by Linus Torvalds Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 50
52 Example of the Web2.0 Revolution Customer Generate Contents Knowledge of Q&A Community Grassroots Critics of Amazon Grassroots Movies of You Tube Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 51
53 What is New Value? Local Community to Global Community Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 52
54 What is New Value? Invisible Economy to Visible Economy Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 53
55 What will Happen after the Revival of Voluntary Economy? Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 54
56 Mutual Infiltration Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 55
57 In Other Words Merger of Monetary Economy and Voluntary Economy Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 56
58 Example Google, Amazon, You Tube Fusion of Profitable Business Model and Consumer Generated Contents Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 57
59 What will Happen Next? Emergence of New Economic Principle Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 58
60 Second Paradigm Change What will Happen to Innovation? Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 59
61 Paradigm Change Beneficiary Innovation to Participatory Innovation Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 60
62 What is Beneficiary Innovation? Innovation Promoted by Governments and Large Companies for Grassroots Consumers as Beneficiary Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 61
63 What is Participatory Innovation? Innovation Promoted by the Participation of Grassroots Consumer Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 62
64 Example Innovation of Social Systems by Open Source Policy Making Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 63
65 Examples Innovation of Products and Services by Pro-sumer Development Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 64
66 Why does the Paradigm Change Happen? Revival of the Way of Innovation in Primitive Community Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 65
67 Third Paradigm Change What will Happen to Democracy? Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 66
68 Paradigm Change Indirect Democracy to Neo Direct Democracy Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 67
69 What is Neo Direct Democracy Direct Democracy in True Meaning Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 68
70 What is Democracy? Democracy is not only the Problem of Participation to Decision Making Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 69
71 What is Democracy? Democracy is but also the Problem of Participation to Innovative Action Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 70
72 What is Democracy? Democracy is not only the Problem of Politics Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 71
73 What is Democracy? Democracy is but also the Problem of Economy and Culture Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 72
74 Until Now Economy and Culture have been Indirect Democracy. Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 73
75 Until Now Companies have been Representatives of Consumers by using Market Research. Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 74
76 From Now Consumers will be able to Design, Produce and Use what they want. Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 75
77 In Other Words What you Desire is What you Get. Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 76
78 Spiral Up Process of Democracy Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 77
79 Fourth Paradigm Change What will Happen to Organization? Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 78
80 Paradigm Change Profit Organization v.s. NPO to Social Enterprise Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 79
81 What will Happen to Organization? Mutual Infiltration of Profit Organization and Non-profit Organization Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 80
82 Example Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) Movement from Profit Organization to Non-profit Organization Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 81
83 Example Social Entrepreneur Movement from Non -profit Organization to Profit Organization Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 82
84 What will Happen after Infiltration? Social Enterprise To Contribute to Society through Main Business To Create a Cash Flow for Sustainable Contribution Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 83
85 Fifth Paradigm Change What will Happen to Talent? Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 84
86 Paradigm Change Single Talent Professional to Multi Talent Professional Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 85
87 What will Happen to Talent? Web2.0 Revolution will make People Rather Easy to become A Professional. Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 86
88 What will Happen to Society? Da Vinci Society Multi Talents Flowers in People like Leonard Da Vinci Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 87
89 Example Sales Manager in a Company Member of Pro-sumer Community Social Entrepreneur for Ecology Music Composer on the Web Series of Essay on the Blog Short Movies to You Tube Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 88
90 Sixth Paradigm Change What will Happen to Personality? Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 89
91 Paradigm Change Single Personality Life to Multi Personality Life Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 90
92 What will Happen to Personality? Web2.0 Revolution will Enable People to Express Themselves in Many Ways. Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 91
93 Why is Expressing Oneself so Important? Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 92
94 Expressing Oneself is A Healing Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 93
95 Why is that a Healing? We Always Choose a Persona to Adopt Oneself to the Circumstances Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 94
96 There are Many Personalities Deep Inside of Us Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 95
97 But We Always Repress Most of Them to Avoid Confusion in Daily Life. Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 96
98 How Can We Express Hidden Oneself? Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 97
99 Three Ways Anonymous Message Playing a Person in Drama Non Language Expression Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 98
100 What is the Meaning of Web2.0 Revolution in this Context? Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 99
101 Seventh Paradigm Change What will Happen to World View? Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 100
102 Paradigm Change Mechanical System Paradigm to Living System Paradigm Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 101
103 What is Mechanical System Paradigm? Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 102
104 A tendency to think that the world is like a huge mechanical system and we can design and manipulate it freely. Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 103
105 Examples Typical Wording Re-engineering of Company Re-structuring of System Blue Print of Society Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 104
106 What is Living System Paradigm? Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 105
107 The way of thinking that the world is like a great living system which we cannot design and manipulate intentionally. Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 106
108 Why does this Paradigm Change Happen? Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 107
109 Because of Internet Revolution and Web2.0 Revolution? Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 108
110 The Revolutions make Corporations, Markets and Society more Inter-related. Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 109
111 Then Systems of Corporations, Markets and Society will evolve into Complex Systems. Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 110
112 What is Complex System? Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 111
113 A System Characterized by Coherence, Self Organization Emergence, Co-evolution Ecosystem Butterfly Effect etc. Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 112
114 What is the Essence of Complex System? Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 113
115 Living System Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 114
116 The Insight of Gregory Bateson Complex System Seems to behave as a Living System. Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 115
117 Internet Revolution and Web2.0 Revolution will naturally Require Us Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 116
118 to Change the Paradigm from Mechanical System Paradigm to Living System Paradigm Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 117
119 Because Corporations, Markets and Society will Become Living Systems. Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 118
120 And Because There will be Created A Huge Ecosystem of Minds. Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 119
121 Example Key Words In Web2.0 Revolution Wisdom of Crowds Collective Intelligence Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 120
122 What is Next? Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 121
123 Collective Intelligence to Collective Consciousness Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 122
124 Collective Consciousness to Collective Sub-consciousness (Carl Gustav Jung) Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 123
125 The Insight of Gregory Bateson Ecology of Mind Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 124
126 Why is Living System Paradigm So Important Now? Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 125
127 All of Global Problems including Global Warming are the Problems of Complex Systems. Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 126
128 Eighth Paradigm Change What will Happen to Civilization? Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 127
129 Important Question Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 128
130 How to Cope with the Complex Systems as Living Systems Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 129
131 Seven Problems of Complex Systems Impossibility of Analysis Impossibility of Prediction Impossibility of Division Impossibility of Control Sensitivity to Small Information Sensitivity to Fluctuation Frequent Change of Law Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 130
132 Seven Pillars of Wisdom for Complex Systems Not to Analyze, But to Use Intuition and Insight. Not to Predict the Future, But to Create it. Not to Divide, But to Treat as a Whole. Not to Control, But to Promote Emergence. Not only Share Information, But also Create Coherence. Not to Use Large Power, But to Use Butterfly Effect. Not to Learn Law, But to Change Law. Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 131
133 Where is the Wisdom to Cope with Complex systems as Living System? Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 132
134 In Old Community and in Old Society of Each Country Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 133
135 Spiral Up Process of Civilization Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 134
136 Revival of Old Value System and Old Civilization Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 135
137 Then What is the Mutual Filtration Process of Civilization? Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 136
138 Eastern Civilization and Western Civilization Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 137
139 The History of Humankind is Climbing Up A Spiral Staircase. Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 138
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